Thursday 10/15/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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MLB

Thursday, October 15

Best-of-7 series

Houston vs Tampa Bay (3-1) (@ San Diego)
Unknown starting pitcher— probably bullpen game

— Astros scored total of nine runs in first four games in this series.
— Houston is in playoffs for 4th year in a row; they won World Series in 2017, lost World Series last season.
— Under is 7-3 in their playoff games.
— Astros are 15-27 on road this season.

Unknown starting pitcher— probably bullpen game

— Tampa Bay won eight of its 11 playoff games.
— Rays are in playoffs for second year in a row.
— Tampa Bay is 28-14 away from home this season.
— Under is 8-3 in their playoff games.

— Rays lost ALDS 3-2 to Houston last season.

National League
Atlanta (2-1) vs Los Angeles (@ Arlington)
Wilson allowed one run in eight IP in two late-season starts.
— Atlanta split the two starts.
— Over is 2-0 in his starts.
— He has never pitched against the Dodgers; this is his first career playoff game.

— Braves won seven of their first eight playoff games.
— Atlanta is in playoffs for the third year in a row.
— Braves are 23-15 away from home this season.
— Under is 5-3 in their playoff games.

Kershaw has been batting physical problems; he is 8-2, 2.61 in 12 starts this year.
— Dodgers are 10-2 in his starts this season.
— Over is 4-2 in his last six starts.
— He s 11-11, 4.23 in 34 playoff games (27 starts)
— He is 5-0, 1.78 in 11 career starts vs Atlanta.

— Dodgers are 49-19 this year, but 1-2 this week.
— Dodgers are in playoffs for the 8th year in a row.
— LA is 28-10 away from home this season.
— Under is 5-4 in their last nine games.

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MLB

Thursday, October 15

Trend Report

Tampa Bay @ Houston
Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Houston is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

LA Dodgers @ Atlanta
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
LA Dodgers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

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977LA DODGERS -978 ATLANTA
LA DODGERS are 11-1 SU (9.9 Units) when playing on Thursday in the current season.

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MLB
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 15

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TAMPA BAY (48 - 23) vs. HOUSTON (35 - 35) - 5:07 PM
BLAKE SNELL (L) vs. LUIS GARCIA (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-1 (+1.6 Units) against HOUSTON this season
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+4.0 Units)

BLAKE SNELL vs. HOUSTON since 1997
SNELL is 3-3 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 4.21 and a WHIP of 1.476.
His team's record is 5-3 (+3.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-6. (-4.3 units)

LUIS GARCIA vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
No recent starts.

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LA DODGERS (49 - 19) vs. ATLANTA (42 - 26) - 8:08 PM
CLAYTON KERSHAW (L) vs. BRYSE WILSON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 42-26 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 50-32 (+21.1 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 17-6 (+12.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LA DODGERS are 94-58 (+33.4 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Thursday since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 2-1 (+1.6 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.8 Units)

CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. ATLANTA since 1997
KERSHAW is 7-0 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 1.49 and a WHIP of 0.900.
His team's record is 12-2 (+8.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-6. (+0.8 units)

BRYSE WILSON vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
No recent starts.

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NFL betting tips for Week 6: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns are a combined 7-2 Over/Under to start the 2020 NFL season and meet in Week 6 with a Over/Under total of 50 points.

Planning ahead has been tough to do in 2020, with the COVID-19 pandemic leaving a lot up in the air. That’s been the case for the NFL season the past few weeks, with the schedule shaken up in reaction to coronavirus outbreaks.

But even with plenty of unknowns, you want to stay ahead of the action with the sharpest NFL betting strategy. And that means getting the best numbers now or waiting for the market to move in your favor.

Here are our NFL betting tips for the Week 6 odds to bet now and bet later.

Green Bay Packers (-1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bet now

It didn’t take long for this line to start moving away from the Bucs after their bumbling loss in Chicago on Thursday. Tampa Bay opened strong, holding a 13-0 lead in the second quarter before the Bears defense found its claws. Chicago wouldn’t allow a single point more and the Bears beleaguered offense would do just enough to get the 20-13 victory.

The Packers enjoyed a bye in Week 5 but return to action with a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS mark entering this road stop in Florida. Aaron Rodgers is hoping to have top target Davante Adams back after missing two games (hamstring) and the Green Bay rushing attack continues to chew up the turf behind RB Aaron Jones. The Buccaneers do get that mini bye to lick their many wounds and should have some bodies back on offense. However, the defense lost its linchpin in veteran DL Vita Vea (broken leg) for the season.

This spread opened as big as Bucs -2.5 on Saturday at select books and was quickly steamed over the fence to Packers -1.5. Once the betting public starts looking at Week 6 odds Monday morning, there could be more movement toward the Cheeseheads, so get them as low as you can right now.


Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (+2.5): Bet later

Dak Prescott’s ankle injury was as gruesome as it was deflating. The Cowboys captain will be out for the remainder of the season, leaving quarterback duties in the hands of veteran Andy Dalton. Losing Dak is bad but not devastating to the Dallas offense due to the surplus of skill players around Dalton (who’s a pretty solid option at No. 2).

The Cowboys try to move forward after Sunday’s sour win over the Giants when Arizona comes to AT&T Stadium. The Cardinals snuffed a two-game slide by chewing up a cupcake in the New York Jets Sunday and play their third straight road game in Dallas in Week 6. Arizona's defense may be without pass rush specialist Chandler Jones (biceps) for an extended period of time.

This spread hit the board as high as Cowboys +3, but most books are dealing +2.5. The sharp money may be on Dallas early, but the public is going to play against the Cowboys without Prescott. I say wait it out and see if this one goes back to three or higher.


Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (Over 50): Bet now

These AFC North rivalries used to be about hard-nosed defensive football, but this Week 6 divisional matchup is boasting a butt-load of points with an opening total at 50. Both the Browns and the Steelers have plenty of options on offense and are averaging 31.2 and 29.5 points per game respectively.

Cleveland is walking tall after a convincing win over the Indianapolis Colts, hanging 32 points on the NFL’s top-ranked defense. And while Baker Mayfield had X-rays on his ribs following the victory, the results were negative and he sounded fine in postgame interviews. Pittsburgh didn’t show any rust from its sudden bye week (due to Tennessee's COVID outbreak), out-punching Philadelphia 38-29. Combined, these foes have a 7-2 Over/Under record so far in 2020.

If you like the Over in this game – and why wouldn’t you – jump on it now. Those 50-point totals aren’t going to last long and, as of Sunday night, some 50.5 O/U's are popping up.


Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (Under 44): Bet later

The Bears got their groove back on defense in Thursday’s win over Tampa Bay. For the first time in two seasons, Chicago caused chaos with three sacks, two forced fumbles (one recovered) and knocked around Tom Brady so bad he couldn’t remember what down it was. As for the Bears offense, it scored 20 or fewer points for the third time this season and the 13th time in the past 21 games.

The Panthers continue to play above expectations, improving to 3-2 SU and ATS with a victory over the floundering Falcons in Week 5. While QB Teddy Bridgewater, offensive coordinator Joe Brady and the Carolina offense get the love for this turnaround, the Panthers stop unit has made it easy. The defense has allowed its last three opponents to muster scores of 16, 21, and 16, playing Under the number in each of those wins.

This total opened at 43.5 points and jumped to 44 with the first action coming in on the Under. We’ve seen some early Over money on Carolina games already this season, so if you like the Under wait it out and get a little greedy. See if you can get an extra half point on this Over/Under before firing away.

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Tech Trends - Week 7
Bruce Marshall

Week 7 of the College Football season kicks off on Wednesday, October 14 and we've identified betting trends and angles for key matchups between FBS and FCS matchups.

We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Thursday, Oct. 15

GEORGIA STATE at ARKANSAS STATE (ESPN, 7:30 p.m.)

GSU on 1-7-3 spread skid as road dog since 2018, though did win and cover at home vs. ASU in 2019.

Tech Edge: Slight to Arkansas State, based on team trends.

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105GEORGIA ST -106 ARKANSAS ST
GEORGIA ST is 12-2 ATS (9.8 Units) in road games in October games since 1992.

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NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 7

Thursday, October 15

Georgia State @ Arkansas St

Game 105-106
October 15, 2020 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Georgia State
71.337
Arkansas St
83.900
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arkansas St
by 12
77
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arkansas St
by 5
72 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arkansas St
(-5); Over

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NCAAF
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 15

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GEORGIA ST (1 - 1) at ARKANSAS ST (2 - 2) - 10/15/2020, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA ST is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in October games since 1992.
GEORGIA ST is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARKANSAS ST is 1-1 against the spread versus GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS ST is 1-1 straight up against GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NCAAF

Week 7

Trend Report

Thursday, October 15

Georgia State @ Arkansas State
Georgia State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Georgia State's last 6 games when playing Arkansas State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Georgia State's last 6 games
Arkansas State
Arkansas State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Georgia State
Arkansas State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

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NCAAF

Week 7

Thursday’s game
Georgia State (1-1) @ Arkansas State (2-2)
— Georgia State split its first two games, losing in OT at Louisiana.
— This is the Panthers’ first road game this season.
— GSU has 8 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— Panthers have 87 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Georgia State’s redshirt freshman QB has started twice.
— Panthers are 2-6-3 ATS in last 11 games as a road underdog.

— Arkansas State is already playing its 5th game; they’re 1-2 vs I-A teams.
— Red Wolves gave up 227-217 rushing yards in their losses to Coastal Carolina, Memphis- they pulled an upset at Kansas State.
— ASU has 9 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— Red Wolves have 128 returning starts on the offensive line.
— ASU’s plays two QB’s, who have a combined 17 starts.
— Under Anderson, Red Wolves are 18-12 ATS as a home favorite.

— Arkansas State won five of last six series games, but lost 52-38 to GSU last year- Panthers ran the ball for 340 yards, had 722 total yards.
— Panthers lost last three visits to Jonesboro, by 16-14-2 points.

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park West

10/15/20, GPW, Race 7, 3.24 ET
10/15/20,GPW,7,1M [Dirt] 1:35:03 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $43,000 (includes up to $7,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race AtA Mile Or Over Since July 15 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $25,000 (Races Where Entered For $20,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	7	R U Lucky	8/1	Torres C A	Gracida Ruben	SFW	63	36.51	1.34/$1
096.1361	8	Town Classic	7/2	Burgos A	Joseph. Jr. Saffie A.	T	42	38.10	1.43/$1
095.0914	3	Danville	15/1	Prado E S	Winebaugh Cheryl	C	63	36.51	1.34/$1
094.7838	6	Rebelde	4/1	Vasquez M A	Pompay Teresa M.		63	36.51	1.34/$1
094.4736	4	Youcantcatchcurlin	6/1	Camacho S	Alter Happy		63	36.51	1.34/$1
094.3360	1	Prince James	5/1	Arroyo A S	Danner Kelsey	EL	63	36.51	1.34/$1
093.5343	2	Meade	3/1	Zayas E J	Maker Michael J.		42	38.10	1.43/$1
092.2685	5	Green Mansions	10/1	Jaramillo E	Abreu Fernando	J	42	38.10	1.43/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 25.00, ROI 0.79/$1
. . . .
100.0000 7 R U Lucky
[Category]Condition
[AllDirt]LastRaceDistanceIsEqualToToday

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PITBULL BARKING MLB

Dodgers -1.5 -140


NCAAF

Georgia St. +3.5 (-115)

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Paul Leiner

NLCS Pick & Horses 10/15

Dodgers woke up yesterday and the bats should stay alive today. Got a couple horse races I'm looking at also.

100* Dodgers -1.5 -140 Kershaw


Horses 10/15

Here's a couple from Keeneland

Race 1
#5 Cabo Dorado $10 wps
$2 exacta box 5-3-1

Race 8
#6 Aquaphobia $10 wps
$2 exacta box 6-5-2

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Mike Wynn

Free Pick: LA Dodgers/Atlanta Under 9½ Runs