Friday 10/16/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Bob Valentino

Even though BYU brings the top-ranked total defense into this road game at Houston their stats have been compiled against a less than impressive schedule to date. I have a feeling that tonight's meeting against these Cougars from Houston is going to slip Over the total when it is all said and done.

BYU is still averaging almost 44 points per game in getting out of the gate at 4-0 and they will be facing a Houston team that was able to hang 49 points on Tulane in their season-opener last Thursday while giving up 31 points.

Dana Holgorsen's team was a tad "rusty" in their very first game as they had 4 first-half turnovers and 5 turnovers overall in the home win.

While you cannot handicap turnovers, you can can assume while there may not be 5 given away by the host tonight, there may be one or two coughed up by Houston.

With Zach Wilson and Clayton Tune a pair of the better quarterbacks at the college level, I am going to look for the points on the scoreboard to be enough to get this meeting Over the total.

2* BYU-HOUSTON OVER

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel Park

Laurel Park - Race 3	EXACTA, TRIFECTA &DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 3-4) / 10 cent SUPERFECTA 50 cent PICK 3 (RACES 3-4-5) / 20 cent RAINBOW PICK 6 (RACES 3-4-5-6-7-8) $1.00 SUPER HIGH 5
Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 98 • Purse: $42,000 • Post: 2:00P
(PLUS UP TO 30% MBF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, STARTER OR MD SIRED OR MD BRED RACES OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING SINCE AUGUST 16 ALLOWED 3 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. CAREY TIMES is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CAREY TIMES: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. HO LLY BLAME: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. INSIDE RISK: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
5	CAREY TIMES	3/1	3/1
3	HOLLY BLAME	2/1	9/2
1	INSIDE RISK	9/2	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	CAREY TIMES	5	3/1	Front-runner	88	87	91.8	83.2	78.7
1	INSIDE RISK	1	9/2	Stalker	94	89	69.4	81.4	71.9
3	HOLLY BLAME	3	2/1	Trailer	99	96	70.6	87.4	82.9
7	DECORATED	7	9/2	Trailer	79	84	25.5	77.8	65.8
6	STONE COURAGEOUS	6	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	89	83	58.6	80.2	71.2
2	COMMANDING GENERAL	2	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	78	77	55.3	71.1	63.6
4	RUSSELDOINGTHINGS	4	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	80	80	37.0	75.8	68.8

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Golden Gate Fields

Golden Gate Fields - Race 8	$1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta $1 Superfecta (.10 min) / $1 Rolling Super High Five Leg 4 of the $1 Golden Hour Pick 4 Leg 2 of the $5 Golden Hour Double (starts with Race 8 at Santa Anita)
Claiming $6,250 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $13,000 • Post: 4:59P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JULY 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250 (MAIDEN, CLAIMING AND STARTER RACES FOR $5,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. WHOA NESSIE is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * WHOA NESSIE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" des ignation or an "L" designation. TINK'S TWIRL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. EVERYBODY DOES IT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
6	WHOA NESSIE	7/2	3/1
8	TINK'S TWIRL	5/2	5/1
1	EVERYBODY DOES IT	5/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	WHOA NESSIE	6	7/2	Front-runner	79	86	97.7	82.4	75.4
8	TINK'S TWIRL	8	5/2	Stalker	93	85	75.5	81.7	76.7
7	FIERY CAUSE	7	12/1	Stalker	72	74	74.8	71.2	59.7
1	EVERYBODY DOES IT	1	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	88	81	55.3	76.0	70.0
3	LEA'S REWARD	3	12/1	Trailer	80	78	91.0	79.6	69.1
5	LADY BREXIT	5	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	84	69	67.4	68.9	58.4
4	LACEY'S RAINBOW	4	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	79	69	59.2	74.4	61.4
2	PURE PERFECTION	2	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	82	72	32.4	70.4	62.4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Santa Anita - Race #4 - Post: 2:41pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $28,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#3 DEHYDRATION (ML=5/2)
#6 FLYING BUSINESS (ML=9/5)
#5 DON'T STOP LOOKIN (ML=10/1)


DEHYDRATION - The most dangerous animal in racing is the lone speed horse. If they let her get away early they probably won't catch her. Was in a $40,000 Claiming race at Santa Anita last out. That event had a class figure of 88 and she is moving down in this race. A certain win candidate. FLYING BUSINESS - Took a drop in class last time out, and keeps in that lower class level in this event. A good sign this animal is comfortable and ready to go. This filly has been trying different distances, but from the looks of things, she ran a nice speed rating last try at this distance. Glatt is hoping to get a little more out of this filly by adding blinkers today. DON'T STOP LOOKIN - Looking at today's class rating, this horse is meeting an easier field than in the last race at Santa Anita.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 HEART RIVER (ML=3/1), #2 SHERILINDA (ML=7/2),

HEART RIVER - Tough to wager on any mount like this that didn't land in the top three after the long layoff and comes right back. SHERILINDA - Tough to wager on any racer in a short distance clash at 7/2 when she hasn't shown any on the board results in sprints in the last sixty days. This filly gave a lackluster effort last time.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#3 DEHYDRATION is the play if we get odds of 5/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	3 with [5,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 10 - Maiden Claiming - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 66

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 PERRY HIGH 3/1
# 9 FLY ME HIGHER 4/1
# 3 EL GOLFO DE MEXICO 5/1

PERRY HIGH has a respectable shot to take this race. I think having Alvarez ride this gelding is a smart selection. With a strong 51 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will definitely be a factor in this competition. Is tough not to examine given the company run in recently. FLY ME HIGHER - He has been travelling admirably lately while recording strong Equibase Speed Figures. Has been running admirably lately and should be on or close to the lead early on. EL GOLFO DE MEXICO - Has a solid shot in here if you like back class. Posted a formidable Equibase Speed Fig last time out.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Charles Town - Race #9 - Post: 11:02pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 70

Rating:

#4 FIRST FIGHTER (ML=3/1)


FIRST FIGHTER - Zip is always important in horse racing, but the lone speed horse is always dangerous. Bocachica and Runco perform well when they team up. Hard to beat a win percent of 33. Taking a trip down the class scale; has the class ability to make his presence felt. Any speed horse that is breaking from the inside has a shot on this track. Should jump out of the gate and get good position versus this bunch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #11 BOURBON BRYCE (ML=5/2), #3 RAGTIME COWBOY JOE (ML=7/2), #9 HEART HERO (ML=4/1),

BOURBON BRYCE - Hasn't raced or had any morning activity since September 17th. Not much value on this morning-line choice. RAGTIME COWBOY JOE - The rating in the last race doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's race. Mark this mount as a questionable contender. HEART HERO - This sustainer will probably be rolling down the lane much too late to make an impression in this race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #4 FIRST FIGHTER on the nose if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	4 with 2
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park West

10/16/20, GPW, Race 6, 2.50 ET
10/16/20,GPW,6,1 1/16M [Turf] 1:39:01 CLAIMING. Purse $22,000 (includes up to $3,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over On The Turf Since July 16 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $12,500 (Races Where Entered For $10,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances). (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at One Mile and One Sixteenth) (Rail at 5 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	3	Lillie's Heat	10/1	Fuentes M	Rodriguez Roderick R.	L	18	33.33	3.60/$1
098.5337	6	Napa Rules	9/2	Jaramillo E	David Carlos A.	JTSE	109	30.28	1.46/$1
096.2849	9	Valley Date	20/1	Vasquez M A	Crichton Rohan		109	30.28	1.46/$1
096.0617	5	Blossom Bow	6/1	Berrios H I	Dibona Bobby S.		109	30.28	1.46/$1
094.7151	10	Pert	4/1	Torres C A	Crichton Rohan	F	109	30.28	1.46/$1
094.6198	1	Yako	8/1	Panici L	Sano Antonio		109	30.28	1.46/$1
091.9914	7	Hoponthebusgus	5/2	Zayas E J	Maker Michael J.		109	30.28	1.46/$1
091.0689	8	Feature Creature	5/1	Prado E S	Matier Sandra		109	30.28	1.46/$1
087.1695	2	Vinyardnina	30/1	Rios J M	Catanese. III Joseph C		109	30.28	1.46/$1
084.9750	4	Colonels Daughter	12/1	Reyes L	Avila Juan Carlos	C	109	30.28	1.46/$1

Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 15.38, ROI 0.98/$1
. . . .
100.0000 3 Lillie's Heat
[Category]Condition
[AllTurf]CarriesApprenticeWeight
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	5	Blossom Bow	6/1	Berrios H I	Dibona Bobby S.		73	31.51	1.25/$1
099.5579	10	Pert	4/1	Torres C A	Crichton Rohan	FW	106	37.74	1.13/$1
096.9872	3	Lillie's Heat	10/1	Fuentes M	Rodriguez Roderick R.	L	63	36.51	1.34/$1
096.6905	8	Feature Creature	5/1	Prado E S	Matier Sandra		60	33.33	1.24/$1
096.0692	6	Napa Rules	9/2	Jaramillo E	David Carlos A.	JTSE	35	34.29	1.46/$1
095.4944	7	Hoponthebusgus	5/2	Zayas E J	Maker Michael J.		60	33.33	1.24/$1
094.9551	4	Colonels Daughter	12/1	Reyes L	Avila Juan Carlos	C	60	33.33	1.24/$1
094.0410	1	Yako	8/1	Panici L	Sano Antonio		60	33.33	1.24/$1
093.8575	9	Valley Date	20/1	Vasquez M A	Crichton Rohan		63	36.51	1.34/$1
087.1423	2	Vinyardnina	30/1	Rios J M	Catanese. III Joseph C		60	33.33	1.24/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 25.00, ROI 0.79/$1
. . . .
100.0000 5 Blossom Bow
[Category]Condition
[AllDirt]*2ndHorse99RatingAndTopHorse100Rating
*Scratches may change this condition

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Woodbine

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $17700 Class Rating: 81

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2020 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 PINKY DUDE 5/2
# 12 ZOOMER MUSIC 6/1
# 8 CAUSE FOR ALARM 20/1

PINKY DUDE gets the edge as the bet in here. I think having Moran ride this gelding is a smart selection. With a very good 76 speed fig last time out, will clearly be a factor in this race. ZOOMER MUSIC - Has to be given a shot here on the basis of the figs in the speed section alone. Should be given consideration based on the quite good Equibase Speed Figure recorded in the last race. CAUSE FOR ALARM - Have to believe this horse will do well following the quick return.

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Keeneland

10/16/20, KEE, Race 1, 1.05 ET
10/16/20,KEE,1,6F [Dirt] 1:08:02 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $25,000. FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. Weight, 119 lbs. Claiming Price $50,000 For Two Year Olds under International Medication Protocol. Horses nominated or entered to compete shall not be eligible to receive furosemide less than twenty-four (24) hours prior to post time for the race.
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	6	Grapevine	7/2	Graham J	Harty Eoin G.	FEL	126	28.57	1.42/$1
096.3017	1	Vale of Evesham	10/1	Padron-Barcenas J	Chapman James K.	W	143	30.77	1.35/$1
096.2927	3	Credit Enhancement	7/2	Gaffalione T	Brown Chad C.	JTSC	152	26.97	1.37/$1
095.3360	4	Mindy's Way	4/1	Cohen D	Diodoro Robertino		143	30.77	1.35/$1
095.2862	8	Sweet Spin	8/1	Saez G	Sims Philip A.		143	30.77	1.35/$1
093.9040	7	Golden Account	3/1	Beschizza A	Sharp Joe		152	26.97	1.37/$1
092.6786	5	Presleys Rifle	10/1	Bejarano R	Zito Nicholas P.		143	30.77	1.35/$1
090.9994	2	Liberty Belle	12/1	Morales E	Glyshaw Tim		152	26.97	1.37/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 45.45, ROI 1.94/$1
. . . .
100.0000 6 Grapevine
[Category]Condition
[AllDirt]LastRaceWasSprintWithSprintToday

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

(Fri) NCAAF Tulane +6-
(Fri) NCAAF Houston +4-
(Fri) MLB Astros +

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Paul Leiner

Horse Pick and MLB Playoff play 10/16

100* Over 9.5 Braves/Dodgers

Here's one from Santa Anita.

Race 7
#4 Grinning Tiger $10 wps
$2 exacta box 4-2-6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB public betting, line movement October 16
Patrick Everson

Mookie Betts and the Dodgers are in a 3-1 NLCS hole and a must-win situation for Friday night's Game 5 against the Braves. Most sportsbooks didn't post a Game 5 moneyline Thursday night.

MLB betting odds provide two pivotal games once again, with the NLCS and ALCS both on the Friday schedule. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in a must-win Game 5 against the Atlanta Braves, and ditto for the resilient Houston Astros in Game 6 against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Caesars sportsbooks provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for Friday’s games.

MLB line movement

Atlanta had a six-run sixth-inning outburst en route to a 10-2 Game 4 victory over Clayton Kershaw and Los Angeles on Thursday, giving the Braves a 3-1 lead in the NLCS. With starters not yet set for Friday’s 9:08 p.m. ET Game 5, most sportsbooks didn’t post a line Thursday night.

Tampa Bay won the first three games of the ALCS, but is now in a dogfight after two straight losses. In Game 5 Thursday, Carlos Correa hit a walk-off solo shot in the bottom of the ninth inning to give defending AL champion Houston a 4-3 victory.

Caesars sportsbooks opened Game 6 at Rays -130/Astros +120, and there was no movement Thursday night for Friday’s 6:07 p.m. ET first pitch. The total of 8 also didn’t move Thursday night.

MLB public betting

The consensus, often indicative of public play, showed a modest lean toward Tampa Bay late Thursday night. The Rays were landing 54 percent of early picks, while the total had 58 percent of early picks on the Under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

901HOUSTON -902 TAMPA BAY
HOUSTON is 27-36 SU (-13.8 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.

903LA DODGERS -904 ATLANTA
LA DODGERS are 8-0 SU (8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Dunkel

Friday, October 16

Houston @ Tampa Bay

Game 901-902
October 16, 2020 @ 6:07 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(Valdez) 15.791
Tampa Bay
(Snell) 17.265
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-135
8
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-135); Under

LA Dodgers @ Atlanta

Game 903-904
October 16, 2020 @ 9:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Dodgers
(May) 17.276
Atlanta
(TBD) 18.695
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1 1/2
12
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-220
9
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+190); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Long Sheet

Friday, October 16

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HOUSTON (36 - 35) vs. TAMPA BAY (48 - 24) - 6:07 PM
FRAMBER VALDEZ (L) vs. BLAKE SNELL (L)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 36-35 (-8.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 48-24 (+15.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 24-9 (+10.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
TAMPA BAY is 20-6 (+14.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SNELL is 24-11 (+15.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 (+0.3 Units) against HOUSTON this season
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+5.0 Units)

FRAMBER VALDEZ vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
VALDEZ is 0-1 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.333.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)

BLAKE SNELL vs. HOUSTON since 1997
SNELL is 3-3 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 4.21 and a WHIP of 1.476.
His team's record is 5-3 (+3.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-6. (-4.3 units)

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LA DODGERS (49 - 20) vs. ATLANTA (43 - 26) - 9:08 PM
DUSTIN MAY (R) vs. JOSH TOMLIN (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-1 (+3.6 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.8 Units)

DUSTIN MAY vs. ATLANTA since 1997
No recent starts.

JOSH TOMLIN vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
TOMLIN is 1-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 7.20 and a WHIP of 1.800.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)