Saturday 10/17/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Brayman

My free play for Saturday is the West Virginia Mountaineers against the Kansas Jayhawks in Big 12 play. Should be a big game West Virginia, specifically because fans will be allowed into the stadium for the first time this season.

West Virginia was a three-point underdog against Baylor and won the game outright in double overtime on Oct. 3. The fact the Mountaineers, who are 2-1, have had time to rest, recover and prepare for a rather weak Kansas team has me excited about what should be a blowout.

I have yet to see the incremental improvements Kansas was supposed to undergo with Les Miles at the helm. The team announced on Twitter last week that Miles had tested positive for COVID-19. I'm sure the Jayhawks continued to work, but to what extent there is no telling. And quite frankly, I've been wondering how long Miles is going to last considering how quick they were hoping for a turnaround. He's only in his second season, but there's nothing to be excited about.

West Virginia has begun receiving votes from pollsters, and is considered a top-40 team at this point, falling in at No. 36.

The Mountaineers sport a rather stingy defense, one that ranks fourth in the nation in the red zone and eighth overall. They also rank 15th in the nation with in time of possession (33:11), which really doesn't bode well for the Jayhawks, whose offense has already struggled to compete in Big 12 losses to Baylor (47-14) and Oklahoma State (47-7). Kansas opened the 2020 season with a 38-23 loss to Coastal Carolina.

This is going to get out of hand quick.

Lay the points with West Virginia quick, cause this line will climb.

3* WEST VIRGINIA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday, October 17: Cross Country Stakes Picks

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October 15, 2020 | By Dustin Fabian
Even with a relatively ‘quiet’ Saturday, we’ve got great races at Keeneland, Belmont and Santa Anita domestically, as well as internationally in Great Britain and Australia.

I’ve identified five stakes races I’m looking forward to on Saturday, along with a best bet and best value horse in each. We probably won’t strike gold with every pick here, but hopefully we deliver more than we miss.

And be sure to check out Xpressbet’s $500 Pegasus World Cup Feeder Tournament, featuring races at Santa Anita, as well as our other Promotions.


ASCOT (RACE 5) // G1 QIPCO CHAMPIONS STAKES

One of Britain’s premier cards is contested Saturday morning as Ascot hosts four Group 1 events, headlined by the QIPCO Champion Stakes and the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. The Champion, which has been won by the likes of Frankel, Twice Over, Cirrus des Aigles and Cracksman in recent years. Last year’s heroine, MAGICAL, is back for another shot but I’m taking a chance with LORD NORTH. He was an astounding winner of the Group 1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes over this course in June and was hindered by a lack of pace in the Group 1 Juddmonte International at York in August when beaten by Ghaiyyath. MAGICAL will be right there at the finish as well, along with stablemate SERPENTINE.

BEST BET // Lord North (6/1)
BEST VALUE // Serpentine (12/1)


BELMONT (RACE 9) // $80K FLORAL PARK STAKES

I like races like this, where you’ve got a big field (11 entries) and a projected favorite/second choice with major questions. That’s MITCHELL ROAD. She’s a nice mare (7-for-17 with $600K earnings) but this race is at six furlongs and she doesn’t sprint and her best efforts have come when she made the lead and that isn’t going to happen this go around. XANTHIQUE, on the other hand, loves Belmont (3-for-5) and this distance is in her scope. For a longshot play, let’s give SUNNY DALE a look. She’s 0-for-3 on turf and outside drawn, but she picks up Irad Ortiz Jr. and could surprise.

BEST BET // Xanthique (5/1)
BEST VALUE // Sunny Dale (15/1)


WOODBINE (RACE 8) // $100K GLORIOUS SONG STAKES

I see plenty of speed in this race and, almost more concerning, most of the speed is stretchout speed that has never been beyond 5 or 5 1/2 furlongs. Not saying those horses can’t win this, but ROCKET RELOAD, CHARLIE’S PENNY and REINFORCED probably won’t do what they did in recent races. SOUPER SENSATIONAL got a perfect trip in her debut and looks like the one to beat, while Hastings invader HEIDI won’t be impossible. It’s not generally my preference to advocate a horse like HEIDI, shipping from a small track like Hastings to the big leagues at Woodbine, but she broke her maiden by 5-lengths, is bred to handle the turf and this field isn’t exactly insurmountable.

BEST BET // Souper Sensational (2/1)
BEST VALUE // Heidi (20/1)


KEENELAND (RACE 9) // G2 LEXUS RAVEN RUN STAKES

The race of the day (on paper, at least) is the G2 Raven Run at Keeneland and this field features a bit of everything. VENETIAN HARBOR and FOUR GRACES boast breakneck speed and each is a graded stakes winner. TONALIST’S SHAPE and FINITE are both four-time stakes winners and SECRET KEEPER ran phenomenally in the G3 Torrey Pines at Del Mar in August. For a likeliest winner, I’ll give a slight nod to VENETIAN HARBOR. I love that she’s drawn outside of FOUR GRACES and her last three losses came when second to Swiss Skydiver, Speech and Gamine. So while she’s been a little allergic to the winner’s circle, she should benefit from a softer spot here. For a longshot, I think you have to give a look to REAGAN’S EDGE. Like VENETIAN HARBOR, she has had the misfortune of chasing a superstar (Frank’s Rockette) in her last two starts and while this field is incredibly deep, she should get a nice midpack/closing trip.

BEST BET // Venetian Harbor (7/5)
BEST VALUE // Reagan’s Edge (8/1)


SANTA ANITA (RACE 9) // G3 AUTUMN MISS STAKES

Santa Anita’s Saturday marquee event is the G3 Autumn Miss for three-year-old fillies and WARREN’S SHOWTIME will be a popular single in the Late Pick 4 and Golden Hour Pick 4. She’s a three-time winner over the Santa Anita turf and was most recently third in the G1 Del Mar Oaks. Bottom line, she brings credentials. If there’s an upsetter, it might be NASTY. Previously trained by Brad Cox, she broke her maiden by 8-lengths on the lawn at Indiana Grand and followed that up with an allowance victory. She ran into a yielding course in the Indiana Grand Stakes but should get firmer footing on Saturday. She has tactical speed in a race without a ton of pace and could hang around for a piece.

BEST BET // Warren’s Showtime (9/5)
BEST VALUE // Nasty (4/1)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Race of the Week: Autumn Miss Saturday at Santa Anita

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October 15, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk
$100,000 GRADE 3 AUTUMN MISS STAKES AT SANTA ANITA
Saturday, October 17, 2020

The Lead:
Let's roll over last week's $470 return in this space with continued October momentum in Saturday's feature race at Santa Anita. The Grade 3 Autumn Miss for 3-year-old turf fillies will be Race 9 of 10 with a post time of 8 pm ET.

Field Depth:
None of these 7 fillies have won a graded stakes to date, but WARREN'S SHOWTIME is a 4-time listed stakes winner and G1-placed in the Del Mar Oaks. GUITTY is G2-placed, as is CROUGHAVOUKE. MIND OUT is listed stakes-placed. The others have to prove their mettle at the higher levels.

Pace:
QUIET SECRETARY is the only confirmed front-runner and she's quite fast, but seriously challenged on class, having only won a maiden claimer 2 starts back and never bidding her talents in stakes company. NASTY and GOING TO VEGAS figure to be closest in pursuit. A deep closer would appear compromised in this spot, but I can't envision the 'lone speed' being good enough to upset them all.

Our Eyes:
WARREN'S SHOWTIME, despite racing against Cal-breds in half of her starts, has run up a strong 2020 ledger. But after starting her career 4-for-7, she's just 1 for her last 5 and has been 5-1 or less in each of those. She makes the move to ace local turf mile pilot Flavien Prat, and that's likely to send the betting public all in. But her Del Mar Oaks 1-2 finishers didn't come back to offer a great deal in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup last week at Keeneland. She's the horse to beat, but doesn't overwhelm at what likely will be an overwhelming price.

The chalk has traded blows with CROUGHAVOUKE and GUITTY on various occasions this year and they've not completely separated from one another. CROUGHAVOUKE and GUITTY are deep closers, however, and pace-wise do not look like they'll get a big set-up to turn the tables. GUITTY has lost 7 in a row, while CROUGHAVOUKE had lost 8 straight until dropping into allowance company and delivering with the addition of blinkers. Of this pair, CROUGHAVOUKE has more appeal under Umberto Respoli.

MIND OUT is the direction to turn if WARREN'S SHOWTIME is to be beaten. She finished three-quarters of a length behind the favorite last year in the Surfer Girl at Santa Anita over this course and distance. Now she moves sprint-to-route and gets back to her preferred mile trip. Trainer Simon Callaghan's barn is going great guns of late. Since July 27, he's 34% wins, 17: 6-5-2 in stakes and 7: 4-2-0 in turf stakes. What I envision is that cheap speed QUIET SECRETARY will bust out and open a long lead and come back. It could be a similar set-up to what MIND OUT saw when the freakish front-running effort by Parkour ran wild early in March. She ended up second-best when that flashy filly didn't come back to the field. QUIET SECRETARY almost assuredly will.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: WARREN'S SHOWTIME is 11-for-12 in the superfecta lifetime and almost flawless on the Santa Anita turf.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender: NASTY ran a couple of solid tries with a first-over trip at Indiana Grand when with Brad Cox and could get a nice trip in her first start for Richard Baltas.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $75 win MIND OUT. $25 exacta MIND OUT over WARREN'S SHOWTIME.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Early Pick 5 Analysis

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October 17, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
It is Super Gold Finals night at Woodbine Mohawk Park. The very popular 0.20 Pick 5 kicks-off the card. The sequence has a $100,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 1

4-Up And Ready (5-1)-The last 2 starts were of different tactics and both were good efforts. McNair should be aggressive here and this could be the time for a picture when the big money is on the line.
5-Imextraspecial (5/2)-This is a very nice filly who has been on her game throughout the year and benefits from a nice post draw. Walker barn doesn't race often but has won 44% of starts last 30 days. Should be bet and is a major player.
6-Dashing Muscle (4-1)-Has finished 2nd to #5 in last 2 starts and has only raced 6 times. This is another filly who could be sitting on a big try at a fair price.

Race 2

3-Lauras Love (5/2)-Has been off since 9/29 but tuned up on 10/13 to prepare for this start. Three-year-old loves to compete finishing in the money in 13 of 16 starts this year. Best to not overlook tonight.
4-Alicorn (7/2)-Drew off in an impressive 150.4 in last start which was the 1st win on Lasix. There isn't much gate speed inside and Roy may look to take command early on and not look back.
8-Rose Run Victoria (5-1)-Just missed after pacing the back half in 54.3. Now Jamieson returns, he knows well and that should help. Could be on the engine or in the 2-hole behind #4. Might be overlooked at the windows and is a real threat with a good trip.

Race 3

1-Royalty Deal (3-1)-This filly is 3rd on the leader board in 2020 earnings in this field. But seems to find ways to lose whether it's a pure break or an interference break, miscues have been costly in 4 of last 8 starts. Comes off 2 sharp victories and could make every call a winning one.
5-Trina (4-1)-Was used a couple of times in a sharp Gold win. Will look to string along and hope Shepherd can work a smooth journey.

Race 4

1-Candy Trader (8-1)-Tossing last break at FlmD because has fared well at Wbsb while facing tough freshmen. Doesn't have big gate speed but Filion has a post advantage over other main foes and he should put in play.
3-Lawless Shadow (2-1)-Program chalk hasn't finished well in last 2 starts. Regardless, from this post, winner in 4 of 8 this year deserves respect.
7-Bulldog Hanover (5/2)-Another who broke on a good track at FlmD last time. Before that posted 2 dominant wins versus Gold company. Looks like a major player, probably will offer little value but could be headed to the winner's circle with a decent trip.

Race 5

2-East End (5/2)-Auciello trainee has been the beaten chalk in last 2. Last week when dropped to this level, was stung hard into a 26.3 first quarter and faded down the lane. Looking for a less taxing trip and to stay in the mix.
3-Dreamfair Moxy (4-1)-Came up with a lifetime best 149.3 win versus much easier. Raced the 2nd half all on his own in .54 to draw off by 9 lengths. Anything close to that mile wins, so will string along.

0.20 Early Pick 5

4,5,6/3,4,8/1,5/1,3,7/2,3
Total Bet=$21.60

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 10/17/20

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October 17, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Blue Star; 7-Warrens Candy Man

View Video Analysis

Forecast: Blue Star and Warrens Candy Man finished two-three when they squared off in a similar maiden special weight state-bred turf miler last month and they comprise the main contention again today. ‘Star was the better of the two in that race, rallying from last on the extreme outside through the lane to be beaten just a half-length in what was just his second career start. With another forward mover today coupled with a ground-saving trip, the Bluegrass Cat gelding should be along in time. Warrens Candy Man makes a significant jockey switch to F. Prat and is another that should be doing his best work from off the pace.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Starship Chewbacca; 5-Crankin; 6-Cal’s Gem

View Video Analysis

Forecast: This Cal-bred maiden $50,000 claiming extended sprint drew a field of six, with at least half of the field worthy of some consideration. Crankin has trained fairly well for his debut and looks like a live item first crack out of the box for the capable L. Mendez outfit. The son of Lookin At Lucky has a work pattern that should have him plenty fit, so let’s try him on top at 4-1 on the morning line. Starship Chewbacca, an okay third in a similar event at Del Mar in late August, should continue his improving pattern for his low-profile connections and projects to be on or near the lead most of the way. Cal’s Gem, a stable mate of Crankin and surfacing in a seller for the first time, is another worth including in your rolling exotic play. His runner-up effort two races back at Pleasanton charts well here and the son of Calimonco gets a big break in the weights with the switch to bug girl J. Pyfer.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:02 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Solitaire; 6-Lavender

View Video Analysis

Forecast: Lavender has put together two really good recent races, a closing third (beaten less than a length) in $32,000 claimer at Del Mar in late August and then a sharp starter’s allowance tally in her first start since joining the P. Miller stable two weeks ago that produced a career top speed figure. If the Irish-bred filly can produce a similar effort off relatively short rest today she can score again. F. Prat got to know her last time out and stays aboard. Solitaire was a beaten choice over the all-weather surface at Golden Gate Fields last month but turned in a solid performance when finishing second and today returns to grass while being reunited with “win rider” V. Espinoza. She has good tactical speed and projects to inherit a comfortable stalking position and then have her chance from the quarter pole home. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press with a few extra tickets keying Lavender on top.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:40 PT Grade: X
Single: 1-September Secret

View Video Analysis

Forecast: September Secret is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite and gets any chance to make amends after being worn down late at even money in a similar starter’s allowance sprint at Del Mar in late August. The P. Miller-trained filly looks quick enough to make the pace from her inside draw without having to be sent hard, and over the Santa Anita main track that usually is kinder to speed types than the track at Del Mar she projects to dominate throughout. In a race that probably is best alone, she can be used as a no-value rolling exotic single.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:11 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Danceformunny; 6-A Thousand Dreams

View Video Analysis

Forecast: Six of the nine entrants in this restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claimer on turf for fillies and mares competed in a similar event at Del Mar in late August. We’ll try to survive and advance using just two. Although she finished eighth of 11 in that race, Danceforthemunny encountered significant trouble while appearing to have plenty of run entering the far turn while in a good second flight, stalking position and lost all chance. She’s drawn nicely inside today and should draft into a comfortable ground-saving position just behind the leaders. With clear sailing today, the R. Baltas-trained daughter of Munnings can produce a serious bid when the pressure is turned on, so at 5-1 on the morning line she’s a play in the win pool and a “must use” in the rolling exotics. A Thousand Dreams is the likely choice and one to beat while dropping to her lowest level ever. Third last time out when facing $40,000 sellers here earlier this month, the daughter of Carpe Diem has numbers that can beat this field and a second-flight style that should produce a clean journey.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:42 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Summer Fun; 6-Hapi Hapi

View Video Analysis

Forecast: Hapi Hapi is a one-paced grinder and certainly not one to back with confidence at a short price, but somebody has to win this woefully weak maiden $25,000 claiming main track miler and is might as well be him. In his second off a claim for P. Eurton, the son of Clubhouse Ride finished a distant but willing runner-up over this track and distance last month while earning a career top speed figure, so if can improve just a little bit he should be graduate. However, we’ve seen better 8/5 shots. Summer Fun lands the rail and seems likely to employ gate-to-wire tactics in a field without much speed. The C. Gaines-trained gelding has yet to hit the board in five career starts but this is this softest group he’s faced and he’s a fit on numbers. These are the two we’ll be including in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:13 PT Grade: B
Use: 5-Colt Fiction; 8-Antithetical

View Video Analysis

Forecast: Colt Fiction probably didn’t have a whole lot behind him when graduating in a maiden $50,000 main track sprint at Del Mar in late August but he did it with plenty left in the tank and appeared to be to be looking around a bit while on the lead for most the journey. He’s tackling tougher today and switching to grass in this starter’s allowance sprint but he’s also adding blinkers, which could improve his concentration considerably. He offers some value at 6-1 on the morning line. Antithetical has the route-to-spring angle that we always like and speed figures that have risen in each of his five career starts. The Slew’s Tiznow gelding appears most comfortable when held up early and allowed to run late. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Colt Fiction.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:44 PT Grade: X
Single: 7-Suzi Qzz Brother

View Video Analysis

Forecast: We’ll take a stand and single Suzi Qzz Brother in this state-bred maiden extended sprint for 2-year-olds that came up fairly light. The son of Commissioner produced a forward move in his second career outing last month at Del Mar when finishing with interest to be a solid runner-up while improving his Beyer speed figure by seven points. If he can step forward again, the M. Glatt-trained gelding shouldn’t have much trouble graduating against this group. He’s 9/5 on the morning line and probably will go lower, so we can make him a logical, short-priced rolling exotic single and leave it at that.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:15 PT Grade: B+ (Leg 1 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 1-Mind Out; 5-Warren’s Showtime

View Video Analysis

Forecast: Warren’s Showtime is back at her favorite distance – a flat mile – and also is tackling easier foes after hitting the front in mid-stretch before weakening late to wind up third in the nine-furlong Del Mar Oaks-G1 in her most recent outing. Freshened since mid-August, the daughter of Clubhouse Ride drops into the Autumn Miss S.-G3 while picking up F. Prat, so with much in her favor the C. Lewis-trained filly is the logical 9/5 morning line favorite. Mind Out is a versatile and capable of daughter of Tapit from the S. Callaghan barn that has hit the board in five of six career starts. She lands the good rail and should inherit an ideal second flight, ground saving trip and then be able to launch her bid from the top of the lane to the wire. She’ll have to improve a bit to worry our top choice but at 8-1 on the morning line she’s worth including on a ticket or two as a back-up or a saver.
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GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 2 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 8: Post 5:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 5-Arch Prince; 6-Heck Yeah; 9-Premium Forest

Forecast: Here’s a fairly contentious Golden Gate Fields allowance/optional claimer that occupies the second leg of the Golden Hour Pick-4. Premium Forest has won nine of his last 12 starts and always has to considered to be the one to beat at this level. The son of Forest Command likes to settle in mid-pack and then produce a late kick, and with all of the speed signed on in this middle distance affair the I. Tamayo-trained 5-year-old should have every chance to continue his winning ways. Heck Yeah has been sprinting in all of his recent starts but won the Cal Cup Derby a couple of years ago over a route of ground so this stretch out in trip shouldn’t bother him at all. He’s not what he once was, but at this level the son of Acclamation could easily regain his best form at 12-1 on the morning line. Arch Prince, first or second in eight of 10 career starts over the local all-weather surface, has solid recent speed figures and is reunited with “win rider” C. Martinez. He’s listed as the 2-1 morning line favorite, though we suspect he might drift a bit. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with preference on top Premium Forest.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:45 PT Grade: B- (Leg 3 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 2-Saving Sophie; 5-Save the Story

View Video Analysis

Forecast: Save the Story didn’t break sharply, was uncomfortable behind horses and never really picked it up in a disappointing comeback try as the favorite at Del Mar last month but we’re willing to give the daughter of Will Take Charge another chance in this maiden $25,000 claiming sprint for older fillies and mares. She turned in an improved recent workout while wearing the blinkers that she’ll be adding today and also will receive a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy A. Centeno. If she can clear the field in the early stages, the R. Baltas-trained 3-year-old may never look back. Saving Sophie is the logical morning line favorite at 8/5 after rallying from far back to be second vs. a tougher maiden $40,000 group in early August. She gets an extra half furlong to work with today, so with a decent pace up front and room to rally in the lane she may be hard to contain in the final furlong. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Save the Story on top.
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GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 4 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 9: Post 6:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Eskimo Roses; 5-Look At My Hooves; 7-Tom’s Surprise

Forecast: In a wide open scramble, let’s go for a price. Look At My Hooves, listed at 12-1 on the morning line, turns back from a couple of route tries and should be much more effective at this distance after graduating sprinting at Pleasanton three races back. A close fifth with a career top number last time out, the J. Thomas-trained gelding can act with these if he can produce another slight forward move. Eskimo Roses is a Southern California shipper dropping into a modest restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claimer and may have found his friends based on competitive numbers earned when chasing tougher foes in all of his recent outings. He’s been primarily a turf runner throughout his career so he could easily enjoy this switch to the all-weather surface. Tom’s Surprise takes a sharp drop in class after exiting a hot starter’s allowance sprint last month and should go much better at this level. He has speed figures that fit and is a “must use” at 5-1 on the morning line.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

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Belmont Park - Race #1

#7 Double Shot	Price player was a stalking 5th and well behind the chalk last time, but he now runs as a first-time gelding, in a race with plenty of early speed, while the horse that just beat him handily enters off a real dud for a new barn; upset special.
#6 The Great Dansky	Aforementioned favorite easily beat the pick two-back for Cox but then bombed in a N1X for N. Lynch, who is 0-for-5 on the year, so the drop will help, but he's tough to trust, not to mention he could get fried by the pace; trying to beat.
#5 Mission Wrapitup	Class dropper was a well-beaten 4th off the Kantarmaci claim last time, so he may like this group a bit better, plus he's one of the few who can settle and make a run, and that alone might be enough to help his fortuned; can get a share.
Race Summary	Pace makes the race and this one is loaded with early heat, and that should really help the 7, while potentially hurting the 6, so play the pick in all the slots, and especially to kick off the early Pk5 as well, as he's eligible for a big form reversal off what is the ultimate equipment change.

Belmont Park - Race #9

#2 My Sassy Sarah	Price player didn't fire routing in the G3 at the Spa but the sprint win two-back there for Nevin was very sharp, and now she moves to Abreu, who is much better on the grass, and catches a group with plenty of speed to set her up too; upset special.
#6 Mitchell Road	The class will be tough off her route form, as she's been facing eons better, and gets some bonus points for the huge 2nd in a bog at KD last time, as it will have plenty of give today too, though she's an unknown at this trip; still, looms plenty scary.
#8 Lead Guitar	The gal to catch freaked when given over to Weaver over the course and distance last time, and a repeat would make her tough, but that was on a rock hard turf course, which is nothing like she'll be getting today; thinking she comes unglued in the lane.
Race Summary	The price will be right on the 2, who could get overlooked but has every right to make a late dent here on the cutback, for a potent new barn, in a race there for the taking too, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since she's likely to fall through the wagering cracks, which means a win would go a long way to blowing up both sequences. If on dirt: 12-11-10

Belmont Park - Race #10

#10 Jc's Shooting Star	Stretch runner was a flat 6th on the turf and didn't fire against tough open foes two-back, but the win at the level at the Spa three-back was strong, and she'll get plenty of pace today to rally into; mows them all down.
#4 Good Credence	Dangerous stalker has been in fine form at the level in her last two and will get first run on the pick, though that didn't work two-back and she still couldn't beat her, so taking 7-2 or so seems a bit too short; second-best.
#1 Playtone	Longshot didn't like the two-turn Spa stakes route last time, so cutting back will help, and she's another who can settled and make a run, so if you're looking for a big price to help your exotics, she may be it; worth a look.
Race Summary	Getting back to the main and dropping in class should both help the pick, who will be a nice price too, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially to end the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, as a win would add plenty of value to both sequences, and she's got every right to deliver one late.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Laurel Park - Race #2

#8 Classy Escort	Will probably get overbet, but the Gonzalez barn is 30% with 2yo MCL sprinters like this in the last three years, and this filly draws well for the debut run while meeting a modest enough bunch.
#3 Guapa Chica	Runner-up finish in the second start stamps her as a player here, but CT to Laurel shippers in this kind of spot are just 7% over the last three years, so I'll be treading lightly.
#5 Lady Clau	Didn't show much when facing better in the career debut, and the drop in class could work in her favor with that race under her belt.
Race Summary	Classy Escort has a right to be tough for a barn that excels in these kinds of spots, and she isn't meeting a particularly imposing bunch.

Laurel Park - Race #4

#8 Trip to Freedom	Trainer Richard Sillaman connected with two of four runners here last week at prices of $9.80 and $18.80, and the barn has won with two of five in 2yo MCL spots like this over the last three years. Think this one can land this.
#7 Great Fun	Goes for the same barn in the same kind of spot as the top choice in Race 2, so it's tough to discount this filly in an identical spot two races later.
#3 Tam Char	Decent debut run in the slop at Pimlico, and she brings that experience edge over some of the other runners that appear to be main players here.
Race Summary	Trip to Freedom debuts for a team that went really well here last week and does good work with 2yo maiden claimers. The 8/1 ML offering is appealing.

Laurel Park - Race #8

#2 Pretti Xtreme	Couldn't hang late last out with a better group, but her other recent runs stack up favorably with these, and the price might be right near that 5/1 ML number.
#4 Kit Kat Katie	Tactical type moves into a tougher spot, but she does so for a sharp barn and with form that doesn't leave her far off what it'd take to win this.
#5 Queen of Tomorrow	Looks like the one to beat, having easily landed a race at this level a couple starts back, but she might be just a slight tough better going longer than this.
Race Summary	Pretti Xtreme looks like a good fit with these and probably bounce back after trying a better N1X allowance group last time out.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Northfield Park - Race #1

#2 WAKE N BAKE	Backed up in last pair, could re-awaken in pace-less race.
#4 STRAWB’S CHIPPIE	No factor in latest but two seconds and a decent try from second tier prior.
#5 HIGH FASHION MEL	Late runner compromised by soft pace and 1-52 mark since 2019.
Race Summary	Wake N Bake is a heavily-raced 8-year-old whose better days are behind him, but he exits a fast race, probably will be sent with speed driver and could go a long way. Play 2-4 and 2-5 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1

#9 PIXIE’S LADY	Pocket trip turned bad in stretch, live longshot in sire stake final.
#5 IMEXTRASPECIAL	Repeat winner in faster divisions of split race.
#7 YOU WILL BE QUEEN	Piling up the checks, failed as odds-on fave last week.
Race Summary	Taking a longshot stab on Pixies Lady, who finished behind most of the field last week and draws post 9. She sat a pocket trip but was blocked the entire stretch while the outer flow was in full flight. Play a 9-ALL exacta.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #3

#3 WARRAWEE VICKY	Chased fast splits, finished fourth, loves to win, good value play.
#1 ROYALTY DEAL	Wired field after ‘sick’ absence, double-digit odds cease in sire stakes final.
#6 PRINCESSPARTYPANTS	Can rally for a share and make exotic wagers pay off.
Race Summary	Warrawee Vicky chased upsetter Royalty Deal through a :56 middle half before fading in the faster division of a sire stakes race leading to tonight’s $250,000 final. Hoping she can turn the tables at an inflated price.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

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Gulfstream Park West - Race #2

#4 Matraca	Was second two back and was a closing fourth last time and can stalk a fast pace; likely to be a good late mover here.
#5 Simple Story	Set the pace and held second last time and was claimed by Delgado; has been second in three of four and the lone win came at a longer distance.
#2 Reiterate	Loves to be on the front end and will be the one to catch; looked home free last time but was caught in the final stride.
Race Summary	Matraca can follow a fast pace and will be the one to hold off; well spotted and can bring her best in the closing yards.

Gulfstream Park West - Race #8

#2 Meadow Beauty	Had a bad start in a stakes race last out and gets back to where she can show speed; bred for the grass and has the class to prevail.
#5 Charge Account	Was a seven-length winner last out and moves over to the turf; solid in her last three and is bred to stretch out on the front end.
#11 Zodiac Princess	Won three straight on the turf and that streak ended in a race that came off the turf; has speed and get a good run from the outside.
Race Summary	Meadow Beauty gave up too much at the start of her last one, can get her speed back here and has the experience to put them away.

Gulfstream Park West - Race #9

#1 Quenane	Tried stakes company in two of his last three, gets back to a more comfortable level and has the late punch to win this two-turn event.
#3 Bodexpress	Has been with tremendous company in many races and comes off a second at Churchill Downs; classy and a legit threat to steal.
#5 Glory of Florida	Was third last time out and makes her second for trainer Carlos David; always in the neighborhood and could benefit if the speed falters.
Race Summary	Quenane should get an ideal stalking run just off a fast pace and can has enough kick to be a big player in the closing yards.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

College Football(Bob Balfe)
4:00 PM EST
Rotation #143
Texas A&M -5 over Mississippi State
It’s amazing how Mississippi State and this new coaching staff went from the highest to highs to the* lowest of lows.* After a week 1 win at LSU everyone thought this team was legit.* It turns out LSU just can’t stop a high school offense.* KJ Costello went from setting passing records to being benched.* This looks like a new team.* Jimbo Fisher has taken care of business so far with the only loss being against Alabama.* This team has a much better defense and it’s a huge advantage having all the position coaches in their second year opposed to their first like in the case with the Bulldogs.* Kellen Mond should have a great day passing and the A&M run game behind Isaiah Spiller should pound this defense.* Take Texas A&M.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB public betting, line movement October 17
Patrick Everson

Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and the Astros trailed the ALCS 3-0, but battled back to force Game 7 Saturday against the Rays. William Hill US opened Tampa Bay a -117 favorite, with Houston +107.

MLB betting odds are on the board for the NLCS and ALCS that just won’t end, with both series on the Saturday schedule. The defending AL champion Houston Astros aim to complete a stunning comeback against the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 7, while the Los Angeles Dodgers look to force Game 7 against the Atlanta Braves.

William Hill US provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for Saturday’s games.

MLB line movement

Houston lost the first three games of the ALCS, then rebounded to win three in a row, including Friday’s 7-4 victory in Game 6 to tie the series. William Hill US opened Game 7 at Rays -117/Astros +107, with a total of 8, and there was no movement Friday night for this 8:37 p.m. ET Saturday first pitch.

Los Angeles had to win Friday’s Game 5 to stay alive in the NLCS, and did so, with Will Smith’s three-run bomb in the sixth inning helping fuel a 7-3 victory. The Dodgers pulled within 3-2 in the series and can knot it up in Game 6, which starts at 4:38 p.m. ET.

William Hill US opened at Dodgers -145/Braves +135 late Friday night, with a total of 8.

MLB public betting

The consensus, often a good indicator of where the public stands, showed a near-split decision late Friday night on Astros-Rays, with Houston getting 52 percent of early picks.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Dunkel

Saturday, October 17

Atlanta @ LA Dodgers

Game 905-906
October 17, 2020 @ 4:38 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
(Fried) 18.893
LA Dodgers
(Buehler) 17.775
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-150
8
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+130); Under

Houston @ Tampa Bay

Game 905-906
October 17, 2020 @ 8:37 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(McCullers) 17.254
Tampa Bay
(Morton) 15.802
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1 1/2
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-120
8
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+100); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, October 17

Best-of-7 series

Houston vs Tampa Bay (3-3) (@ San Diego)
McCullers is 1-4, 4.08 in his last five starts.
— Houston is 6-7 in his starts this season.
— Under is 4-1 in his last five starts.
— McCullers is 1-1, 2.93 in 13 playoff games (6 starts).
— He is 1-3, 3.81 in four starts vs Tampa Bay.

— Astros are 2nd team EVER to force Game 7 in a series they trailed 3-0.
— Houston is in playoffs for 4th year in a row; they won World Series in 2017, lost World Series last season.
— Under is 8-4 in their playoff games.
— Astros are 17-27 on road this season.

Ex-Astro Morton is 4-0, 3.15 in his last four starts.
— Rays are 7-4 in his starts this season.
— Under is 5-2 in his last seven starts.
— Morton is 6-2, 3.16 in 11 playoff games (10 starts).
— He is 5-6, 6.06 in 12 career starts vs Houston.

— Tampa Bay won eight of its 13 playoff games, but lost last three.
— Rays are in playoffs for second year in a row.
— Tampa Bay is 28-16 away from home this season.
— Under is 9-4 in their playoff games.

— Rays lost ALDS 3-2 to Houston last season.

National League
Atlanta (3-2) vs Los Angeles (@ Arlington)
Fried is 1-0, 2.65 in his last three starts.
— Braves are 13-1 in his starts this season.
— Over is 4-2 in his last six starts.
— Fried is 1-2, 4.76 in four starts against the Dodgers.
— He is 0-0, 3.86 in 11 playoff games (3 starts)

— Braves won eight of their first ten playoff games.
— Atlanta is in playoffs for the third year in a row.
— Braves are 24-16 away from home this season.
— Over is 4-0 in their last four games.

Buehler is 0-1, 2.12 in his last four starts (17 IP).
— Dodgers are 9-2 in his starts this season.
— Under is 4-0 in his last four starts.
— Buehler is 1-1, 2.74 in nine career playoff starts.
— He is 2-0, 2.08 in three starts vs Atlanta.

— Dodgers are 50-20 this year, but 2-3 this week.
— Dodgers are in playoffs for the 8th year in a row.
— LA is 29-11 away from home this season.
— Over is 4-0 in their last four games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Saturday, October 17

Trend Report

Atlanta @ LA Dodgers
Atlanta
Atlanta is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Atlanta is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games
LA Dodgers is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home

Houston @ Tampa Bay
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Long Sheet

Saturday, October 17

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ATLANTA (43 - 27) vs. LA DODGERS (50 - 20) - 4:38 PM
MAX FRIED (L) vs. WALKER BUEHLER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LA DODGERS are 42-13 (+20.9 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 43-27 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 15-3 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
ATLANTA is 110-76 (+19.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 20-8 (+11.4 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
ATLANTA is 18-7 (+13.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
FRIED is 13-1 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
FRIED is 20-3 (+16.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-2 (+2.6 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.8 Units)

MAX FRIED vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
FRIED is 0-2 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 4.76 and a WHIP of 1.588.
His team's record is 2-2 (+0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-3. (-2.5 units)

WALKER BUEHLER vs. ATLANTA since 1997
BUEHLER is 2-0 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 4.03 and a WHIP of 0.896.
His team's record is 2-2 (-1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-1. (+0.8 units)

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HOUSTON (37 - 35) vs. TAMPA BAY (48 - 25) - 8:37 PM
LANCE MCCULLERS JR. (R) vs. CHARLIE MORTON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 305-327 (-63.1 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday since 1997.
HOUSTON is 44-41 (-13.5 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 99-73 (-16.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 48-25 (+14.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 74-37 (+17.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 32-16 (+10.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 37-15 (+18.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TAMPA BAY is 20-7 (+13.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-3 (+0.7 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
5 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.9 Units)

LANCE MCCULLERS JR. vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
MCCULLERS JR. is 1-3 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.12 and a WHIP of 1.038.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-0. (+3.0 units)

CHARLIE MORTON vs. HOUSTON since 1997
MORTON is 6-6 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 5.48 and a WHIP of 1.574.
His team's record is 7-6 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-8. (-3.8 units)