Monday 10/19/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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NFL

Week 6

Bills (4-0) @ Tennessee (3-0)
— Buffalo won its first four games, scoring 30.8 ppg.
— All four Buffalo games went over the total.
— Bills have converted 24-47 third down plays this year.
— Buffalo is 16-12-1 ATS in its last 29 road games.

— Tennessee won its first three games by combined total of six points.
— Titans are scoring 26.7 ppg; they’ve only had one turnover (+4) so far.
— Tennessee had COVID-related issues last week, didn’t play.
— Titans are 7-9-1 ATS in last 17 games at home.
— AFC South teams are 3-8 ATS outside their division, 2-3 at home.

— Buffalo won last three series games, by total of nine points.
— Average total in last three series games, 24.3.
— Bills won 14-13/14-7 in their last two trips to Nashville.

Cardinals (3-2) @ Dallas (2-3)
— Third straight week on road for Arizona; they’re 2-1 on road so far.
— Arizona allowed 26-31 points in its losses; 20-15-10 in its wins.
— Cardinals have only one takeaway (-4) in their last three games.
— Four of their five games stayed under the total.
— NFC West squads are 11-6 outside the divisional, 2-1 as underdogs.

— Dalton makes his first start for Dallas; he was 70-61-2 as a starter for the Bengals, over his nine years in Cincinnati.
— Cowboys had 440+ passing yards three weeks in row before last week- they’re averaging 76.2 snaps/game, most in NFL- will they keep up that pace?
— Last four games, Dallas has allowed 39-38-49-34 points.
— Last 4+ years, Cowboys are 4-2 ATS as a home underdog.
— NFC East teams are 3-13 ATS outside their division, 0-8 at home.

— Home side won 13 of last 15 series games.
— Cardinals lost four of last five visits here; they won 28-17 last time they played here, in 2014.

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NFL

Week 6

Trend Report

Monday, October 19

Kansas City @ Buffalo
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
Buffalo
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games

Arizona @ Dallas
Arizona
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games at home
Dallas is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Arizona

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Chiefs vs. Bills Week 6 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

Through no fault of their own, the Buffalo Bills are on that rare Tuesday-Monday turn around this week as they look for a much better showing then they had in Tennessee last week.

But even with the disjointed nature of their schedule the past few weeks, the Bills still get a Tuesday-Monday break between games here, compared to the Sunday-Thursday break they would have had had this game gone on normally as scheduled on a Thursday night.

Can't complain too much about that when the defending champions Kansas City Chiefs are coming to town.

Betting Resources

Week 6 Matchup: AFC vs. AFC
Venue: Bills Stadium
Location: Orchard Park, NY
Date: Monday, Oct. 19, 2020
Time: 5:00 p.m. ET
TV: FOX/NFL

The Chiefs have posted a 2-0 record on the road as they pay a visit to the Bills on Monday Night. (AP)

Spread: Kansas -4.5
Money-Line: Kansas City -220, Buffalo +190
Total: 57.5

2020 Betting Stats

Kansas City

Overall: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U
Road: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 29.8 (Rank 9)
Defense PPG: 22.0 (Rank 7)
Offense YPG: 407.2 (Rank 3)
Defense YPG: 382.8 (Rank 20)

Buffalo

Overall: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 4-0-1 O/U
Home: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 2-0 O/U
Offense PPG: 27.8 (Rank 12)
Defense PPG: 28.4 (Rank 22)
Offense YPG: 401.8 (Rank 5)
Defense YPG: 371.8 (Rank 17)

Handicapping the Total

The total is quite interesting here as both teams are known for their offensive play this year, but it's both defenses that are coming off efforts that saw opponents hang 40 or more on them.

The Chiefs defense is to blame for most of those points, but you can't hang the Bills defense completely out to dry after that effort in Tennessee given how many short fields they had to deal with. But Buffalo opponents have still averaged 31.25 points per game over their last four, as suspect defense in Buffalo is starting to look like it might be a trend.

Yet, I think the best way to look at this game is through the eyes of both defenses wanting to rebound after rough outings, and both offenses looking to take much better care of the ball. Kansas City isn't going to want to bleed their defense to death with them losing the time of possession battle in a big way again, and sustaining, and lengthening drives when need be may be an offensive philosophy we see from KC a bit more here.

They know they can connect on the "Home Run" play if need be, we as bettors know that, but that's three out of four games the Chiefs have been outgained in total yardage now, largely because they are getting smokes in the time of possession battle.

Tennessee may not have had the greatest success running on Buffalo, but the weakness of this suspect defense is in stopping the run and I think the Bills went overboard in trying to protect it against the Titans. They'll loosen up a bit there and if KC commits to the running game early (in an effort to give rest to their defense), they'll find enough success to shorten a game with a total of 57.5 rather quickly.

At the same time, Buffalo's going to want to run the ball and control time of possession as much as they can, because that's what everyone seems to believe is the best path to success against the Chiefs, and rightfully so. KC's defense has seen what works in slowing down quarterback Josh Allen from the zone looks Tennessee gave them on Tuesday, and that means that running lanes and controlling the time of possession battle will be there for the taking for Buffalo's offense.

Expecting both teams to run the ball more (for their varying reasons), along with these defenses tightening things up after rough outings in a measuring stick type game – at least for the Bills – the 'under' is the way to look here in my opinion.

Buffalo can never feel comfortable about their chances of pulling off the upset win in a shootout-type contest, and it's still a road game for the Chiefs who know the recipe for winning on the road is to run the ball and play good defense. Scoring may be up this year, but this Chiefs team still loves to play that conservative style on the road as they are 0-5 O/U in their last five road games, part of which includes a 1-4 O/U run when listed as a road favorite.

If Buffalo's going to pull off the upset here, they will need to likely keep KC to 24 or less and even then it will be close. Buffalo's yet to cash an 'under' ticket this year against the closing line, and that's probably not a true reflection of where this team's O/U record will end up by the end of the year.

But the belief this Bills defense will continue to trend in the wrong direction with Mahomes and company in town isn't a hard one to get behind, and the number's probably a shade higher then it should be as is usually the case with Chiefs games in the big picture as well.

Head-to-Head History

All-Time Series Record: Bills lead 26-21-1

Nov. 26, 2017 - Buffalo 16 at Kansas City 10, Bills +8.5, Under 47
Nov. 29, 2015 - Kansas City 30 vs. Buffalo 22, Chiefs -4, Over 40.5

Handicapping the Side

Along the lines of thinking that both defenses will rebound to a degree after rough outings helps an 'under' look, it's a perspective that makes it tough to hone in on a side.

The fact that both sides are coming off losses, it makes a strong bounce back spot argument in both directions, and a Chiefs win that stays inside this current spread would befit this potential playoff preview both franchises hope it may be.

In the end, taking those points at home with a Buffalo team that's looking to prove way more here is rather tempting, but questions remain about Buffalo even being a team ready to take that next step. Much easier to sit on the sidelines in that regard here and see how it plays out.

KC might be so frustrated they lost last week – a division game no less – that they look to hang it on someone, and it just so happens to be the Bills and their defense that's giving up 31+/game that's up next.

I do think it is more likely to be close throughout, but the number you get on the spread here as a great chance to actually matter and it's just sticking with the total selection for me.

Key Injuries

Kansas City

OL Mitchell Schwartz: Back - Questionable
RB Le'Veon Bell: Acquired - Out
FB Anthony Sherman: COVID-19 - Out
WR Sammy Watkins: Hamstring - Out
G Kelechi Osemele: Knee - Out

Buffalo

WR John Brown: Knee - Probable
RB Zack Moss: Toe - Probable
CB Tre'Davious White: Back - Questionable
G Quinton Spain: Foot - Questionable
LB Matt Milano: Pectoral - Questionable
TE Dawson Knox: Calf - Out
LB Del'Shawn Phillips: Quad - Out

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Cardinals vs. Cowboys Week 6 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

Life without Dak Prescott officially takes hold for the Dallas Cowboys this week, as Andy Dalton takes this NFC East-leading team into MNF looking to cover their first point spread of the season. An explosive offense with a defense that only knows how to give up explosive plays is clearly not the recipe for point spread success in Dallas, and it will be interesting to see how much of a play-calling change the Cowboys implement knowing this is now Dalton's team.

But helping the Cowboys defense stay off the field as much as possible can go a long way with this team. Dallas still is going to struggle to slow down people on that side of the ball, but it doesn't need to be this way of allowing 30+ like they have the past four weeks.

Obviously trying to slow down a guy like Kyler Murray and what Arizona brings to the table isn't the best place to start for Dallas, but they've got to start somewhere. The Cardinals enter this game 0-5 O/U this year as they typically don't see both sides score 30+ in a game like the Cowboys have.

You've got a winless ATS team that only knows how to play games with 70+ points scored against a team that's yet to cash an 'over' ticket. What's going to give?

Betting Resources

Week 6 Matchup: NFC vs. NFC
Venue: AT&T Stadium
Location: Arlington, TX
Date: Monday, Oct. 19, 2020
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

The Arizona Cardinals will be playing their third straight road game on Monday when they meet the Cowboys from Arlington. (AP)

Line Movements

Spread: Arizona -1.5
Money-Line: Arizona -120, Dallas +100
Total: 55

2020 Betting Stats

Arizona

Overall: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 0-4-1 O/U
Road: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 0-2-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 25.6 (Rank 16)
Defense PPG: 20.4 (Rank 7)
Offense YPG: 395.4 (Rank 10)
Defense YPG: 346.6 (Rank 10)

Dallas

Overall: 2-3 SU, 0-5 ATS, 4-1 O/U
Home: 2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS, 3-0 O/U
Offense PPG: 32.6 (Rank 3)
Defense PPG: 36.0 (Rank 32)
Offense YPG: 488.0 (Rank 1)
Defense YPG: 404.4 (Rank 27)

Handicapping the Total

Arizona's 'under' run is something I would side with getting snapped sooner rather than later, and this does appear to be the no-brainer opponent to look at an Arizona 'over' spot with how bad the Cowboys defense has been.

Yet, you've got to believe that the Dallas defense can't continue to be this inept every week out on the field, and it's just a bunch of other little things that will likely have me passing on this total in the end. I know I wouldn't want any part of the 'under', but it still doesn't feel like the best play to make in this game.

I don't know if Arizona's 0-5 O/U run has much to do with it, or the fact that the Cardinals have the 4th-best third down conversion rate on defense (opponents only convert third downs 35.59% of time vs Arizona) that I think we might be forced to see the Dallas attack slow down as well.

The Cowboys know they can't keep hanging their defense out to dry, and they might already be leaning towards running the ball more with a backup QB in, and one of the best RB's in the game beside him.

With Arizona's defense understanding how to get off the field when they get the chance too, I'm not sure we see this Dallas attack go up and down the field like they have been. Nor do I think Dallas really wants that for their defense to keep getting shredded all the way back.

Recent Cowboys games may not suggest it, but you still need a lot to go smoothly to cash an 'over' 55 ticket, as it's just as fine to pass here.

Head-to-Head History

All-Time Series Record: Bills lead 26-21-1

Sept. 25, 2017 - Dallas 28 at Arizona 17, Cowboys -3, Under 46
Nov. 2, 2014 - Arizona 28 at Dallas 17, Cardinals -1.5, Push 45

Handicapping the Side

The side is the more interesting handicap in that the Cowboys are too talented on offense to remain without an ATS win for long, but how confident can you be trusting them in Andy Dalton's first start? Dalton does have years of starting experience in this league so there is that working for him, but he's got a much different skill set than Prescott, and how to utilize his skills the best is still going to be a work in progress.

From the Arizona side of things, this could be a second ATS win in a row, but it's also their third straight road game. Going from Carolina to New York to Dallas the past three weeks is far from a favorable play-on spot for any team, but again, all we've seen from this Dallas defense this year is them casually retreating down the field as the scoreboard puts up multiples of six on them. There is definitely an argument there for Arizona.

But as road chalk that's seen the line basically move against them all week, I really want nothing to do with Arizona here. In fact, the third straight road game against a team you know is in a great spot to rally around themselves given how their season has gone really turns into an awful spot for the Cardinals when they've also got a division showdown with the Seattle Seahawks on deck.

Dalton may not be the best option, but he's a known commodity at this point in his career. He's also working with more weapons around him than he ever had in Cincinnati, so he's not going to be asked to carry this team, just lead them. That's the better role for him with this Cowboys team right now, and he's just got to take care of the football.

Defensively, I'll put faith in the idea that the Cowboys defense has to improve simply because I don't think they can get any worse. The Cowboys are probably owed a turnover or two for all that's gone wrong in their season so far, as a -8 turnover differential this year is worst in the league and one that should see some positive regression eventually.

Arizona has had at least one turnover in every game so far this season, so it's not like their won't be opportunities for this Cowboys defense to capitalize.

But Dallas as a home dog, when the Cowboys probably deserve at least a little bit of sympathy for what they roller coaster of a season they've already had to deal with is something I don't think I can pass up in this spot. Dalton could easily end up burning more units than he earns in his new gig, but I'll save those fade spots when the Cowboys start laying some significant chalk again down the line after grabbing a few wins.

That winning streak starts for the Cowboys with this game against a road weary Cardinals team that's got a potential lookahead spot up next. Great spot for a home dog to rise up and get this difficult 2020 campaign somewhat back on track.

Key Injuries

Arizona

LB Dennis Gardeck: Foot - Questionable
OT D.J. Humphries: Back - Questionable
LB Devon Kennard: Calf - Questionable
DE Chandler Jones: Biceps - Out
OL J.R. Sweezy: Elbow - Out
LB Kylie Fitts: Hamstring - Out
DT Rashard Lawrence: Calf - Out

Dallas

LB Leighton Vander Esch: Collarbone - Probable
QB Dak Prescott: Ankle - Out
DT Trysten Hill: Knee - Out
T Tyron Smith: Neck - Out

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Brandon Lee

Oct 19 '20, 8:15 PM in 2h
NFL | Cardinals vs Cowboys
Play on: Cowboys -1 -109 at GTBets

PICK - Cowboys -1
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 276
I believe we are getting some great value here with the Cowboys at basically a pick'em at home against the Cardinals. Dallas is a very public team, but it feels like the public is on Arizona in this game. Some of that is Cowboy backers have had enough, as Dallas comes in 0-5 ATS. They also just lost starting quarterback Dak Prescott.
Not exactly the same faith in this team with Andy Dalton under center as Prescott. I actually think this is going to work out for the Cowboys. Dalton never quite reached the hype around him when he was young and the Bengals were always good but not great with him. The guy is still a very serviceable QB.
It's not like he's taking over the Jets, where he's got nothing to work with. I would argue this is the best set of skill position players he's ever had. The only real concern is the offensive line, as they have lost 3 starters in left tackle Tyron Smith, right tackle La'el Collins and center Joe Looney.
While I could see the o-line really hindering this team down the road, I don't think it will be an issue against Arizona's defense. The Cardinals are giving up 156 yards/game and 4.7 yards/carry vs the run this season. Nothing speaks to how bad they are than the 117 rushing yards they allowed to Washington. The "Football Team" ranks dead last in the NFL in rushing at 82.2 ypg.
I'm not going to sit here and talk up the Dallas defense. It's not great. However, I do feel like it will benefit from a more balanced offense that plays a little more for possession. If they can just find a way to keep Murray in the pocket, they might surprise some people in this game. The effort will definitely be there (everyone has something to prove now that Dak is gone). Give me the Cowboys -1!

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Mike Williams

Oct 19 '20, 8:15 PM in 2h
NFL | Cardinals vs Cowboys
Play on: Cowboys +1 -110 at William Hill

1* on Cowboys +1 -110

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Kenny Walker

Oct 19 '20, 8:15 PM in 2h
NFL | Cardinals vs Cowboys
Play on: Cardinals +1 -110 at YouWager

Free Pick on Cardinals

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Ray Monohan

Oct 19 '20, 8:15 PM in 2h
NFL | Cardinals vs Cowboys
Play on: Cardinals +1 -109 at GTBets

Cardinals -1 (or -105)
Andy Dalton is a more than capable backup quarterback, but the Cowboys Monday Night matchup against the Cardinals will not be an ideal situation for him to succeed. While the Cowboys are known for their talented offensive line, they are missing Tyron Smith, La’El Collins, Joe Looney, and Cameron Erving to injury.
He won’t be able to rely on the Cowboys defense to put them in position to win, as they have allowed more points per game than any other team in the league.
Arizona’s defense is top 10 in points allowed per game, sacks per game, and sack percentage. If Dallas falls behind early and is forced to throw the ball the Cardinals defense will be able pin their ears back and get after Dalton.
The Cardinals have had ups and downs early in the year, but they have a handful of players who are dangerous playmakers in space. They should be able to take advantage of a porous Cowboys defense and put points on the board.
Take the Cardinals to come out on top in Jerry World.
Good Luck, Razor Ray
Monday 5* FREE NFL Play

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Sean Murphy

Oct 19 '20, 8:15 PM in 2h
NFL | Cardinals vs Cowboys
Play on: Cardinals +1 -109 at pinnacle

Monday NFL Free play. My selection is on Arizona over Dallas at 8:15 pm et on Monday.
The Cardinals haven't lived up to lofty preseason expectations so far but still check in with a 3-2 record and they're well-positioned to start gaining some real positive momentum against the Dak-less Cowboys here. I like the upside the Cards bring to the table off last week's drubbing of the lowly Jets. QB Kyler Murray should be comfortable playing here at Jerry World from appearing here during his college days at Oklahoma. He draws a favorable matchup against a very beatable and banged-up Cowboys defense. The loss of Chandler Jones certainly hurts the Cards defense but it has been factored into this line as far as I'm concerned. I believe the case could be made that Arizona should be a field goal road favorite here but as usual, the Cowboys will draw plenty of 'public' money, especially at a near pk'em price. Take Arizona (8*).

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Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Kansas City/Buffalo Under 3½ Field Goals

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Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR MONDAY: KANSAS CITY/BUFFALO UNDER the total of 56½

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Roz Wins

Roz's MONDAY, OCTOBER 19, 2020
Free Pick
NFL
277. Kan/Buf OVER 57.5 (2 PT / 5 ET)

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Platinum Plays

Your Free Pick: the Buffalo Bills Under 1½ Field Goals

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Sharp Bettor

SharpBettor FREE Play MONDAY, October 19, 2020
NFL
277. Chiefs -5 (2 PT / 5 ET)

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Easy Money Sports

Lee's Free Monday Selection Is

Arizona/Dallas UNDER 54½