Thursday 10/22/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2020, 08:34 PM

Huddle Up Sports

Free Play: Appalachian State -10

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-22-2020, 05:06 AM

Al Cimaglia: Hoosier Park Pick 4 Analysis

October 22, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Hoosier Park has a 14-race card this evening with the 0.50 Pick 4 starting in Race 3. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.

The drivers with the hottest hands last night with 3 winners each were Brandon Bates and Trace Tetrick. Each of the 14 races were won by a different trainer.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 3

1-Crook Boyzz (9/2)-Has hit the board in last 8 races and is 5-3-3-in 15 starts at HoP. Should offer a fair price so will use instead of the 8/5 morning line chalk #11 who has battled top colts in Lex and will offer no value.
5-Clever Character (3-1)-Burke trainee comes off 2 straight wins from outside post positions and is a major player again. Winner in 9 of 22 at HoP should use this post draw to an advantage.

Race 4

4-Anchors Away (5-1)-Got stuck with the 10-hole in the Super Final and will toss that start. Looking for a big try tonight and will play against #7 the Burke entry who is the tepid 3-1 program chalk.
6-Dude Included (8-1)-Was rimmed the mile in the Super Final and will take a swing for a nice price. De Long can roll off cover and could take a picture with a top effort.
9-Sermon (12-1)-Even effort in last which was on this surface but had broken equipment. Per Engblom entry was sharp at the Red Mile and has 3 wins in 4 starts since trying Lasix. Post makes the price and has a shot with hot fractions. .
10-TJ's Top Pick (6-1)-Starting in the 2nd tier behind #1 may work out as long as that gelding stays on stride. Either way Andy Miller could find some cover and put in play. Swan For All gelding has won 8 of 16 starts at HoP.

Race 5

1-Candy On The Beach (7/2)-Meriman steers and he has driven before. Does good work on the engine, should be able to get the top and take control. This race looks to be formful and will use the morning line chalks.
4-Mystical Carrie (5/2)-Couldn't catch the winner in last 2 starts, but Priceless and Grace Rocks are not in this field. Has been 1st or 2nd in all 10 starts in 2020 and should be right there at the wire again.
5-Somebodyslilly (3-1)-Has not been able to seal the deal in last 3 but before that rattled off 5 straight wins. This will be the 2nd start on Lasix and might be overlooked at the windows.

Race 6

2-Splash Brother (5/2)-Consistent 3-year-old is a 5 time winner in 10 starts this year and hasn't missed hitting the board. Has not raced since 9/25 but will look for a big try coming off the bench.
4-Blank Stare (5-1)-Beat older here on 10/17 after not racing for 3 weeks. Here is another very consistent performer this year. Should be forwardly placed with this post draw and that suits his style.
7-Always And Again (12-1)-Will look for a price and this colt can roll late. Won last here with a 53.4 back half and pace could be hot tonight.

0.50 Pick 4

1,5/4,6,9,10/1,4,5/2,4,7
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-22-2020, 05:50 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Belmont Park - Race #2

#4 No Lime	Rice claim (21%) rises confidently in class off a fast 2nd for 16k, and the fact he's in a spot where he can't be a claimed, for a barn that knows how to move them up, is a great sign, not to mention his stalking style catches a group loaded with speed; upset special.
#5 Saratoga Pal	Fellow stalker was just 3rd at the level, and it looked like he bounced a bit off the extremely fast romp against NYBs two-back, so with that behind him, and a style that will allow him to sit off the speed, he's got every chance if he comes back around; looms the one to beat.
#7 Advance Notice	Dicey ML favorite was just 5th behind 'Pal last time, though he was just a quarter-length behind, but this wide draw did him no favors, especially since he wants to be pressing from the outset, in a race we already know has plenty of other early speed; making him prove it.
Race Summary	The price and race flow will both be right on the 4, and though he needs to step up to win, you're getting the right risk-reward, for a barn that is aces in these ranks too, so play him in all the slots, and especially in the early Pk5, and to kick off the early Pk4 as well, as he looks like he's poised for a big run, and a win would add plenty of value to both sequences.

Belmont Park - Race #5

#2 Kith	Lightly raced runner tries the dirt for the first time but is certainly bred for it, and Ribaudo is a patient guy too, so the first two starts were no surprise, but now he's making his third career start, should like the surface, and will be a price as well; thinking he's very live.
#5 Tri Saint Lorenzo	Lifetime maiden would potentially be the favorite if there wasn't an entry for sharp connections, and this 7-2 ML would be an square price, but at 0-for-12 there's no upside here, and he just keeps finding one or two better, which makes him tough to trust on top; second-best.
#1 Abreu/Klaravich Entry	Heavy chalk will be bet hard, as Klaravich is potent, both Ortiz brothers ride, and Abreu is a big 27% on debut, so the 1a very scary, but the flat 1 bombed off his return and drops, so there are concerns, especially since we're talking about 30k MCL'ers too; mixed signals here.
Race Summary	The 2 looks a bit sneaky, and catches a group that is seemingly there for the taking, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially to end the early Pk5/Pk4, and kick off the late Pk5 as well, as he looks set for a lifetime best, and it's not like he'll have to improve leaps and bounds to be in with a chance against a group like this.

Belmont Park - Race #7

#6 Lucky Ramsey	Veteran has been doing the turf thing of late but had a few very strong runs on the main at Laurel earlier this year, and this is a very savvy Gonzalez barn that knows how to spot their stock, so the fact he's on the dirt today says he's here to fire a very big shot; look out.
#2 Control Group	The stiff chalk will be tough off three of his last four, as they are simply better than this group, though it's worth noting he's 0-for-9 at Belmont, and he's also 6-for-12 on an off-track, yet bombed in the slop two-back, so there could be some issues here; backwheel time.
#3 Attentive	Class dropper starts for a potent Broberg, and one that is making it's initial foray to the NYRA circuit, so you have to think the ones he brought are here to run big, and this is another turf-to-dirt hoss with some solid main track form to fall back on; would be no surprise.
Race Summary	You won't get rich on the 6 but if they hammer the 2 that 7-2 ML just might stick, which would warrant a win and place bet, though you can get some built-in value by using him in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since budget players will be singling the 2, even though he may be a bit vulnerable over a track he's not exactly in love with.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-22-2020, 05:51 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #3

#7 Crazy Good	Might get a little lost on the tote, but she's debuting for a capable team with a a couple of decent works along the way.
#8 Dance for the Gold	Draws well to spy the pace from the outside, and she looks like one of the ones to beat off the good run last time out.
#4 Bonkers	She has caught a couple of tough winners in recent starts, and this might finally be the field she's able to handle. Price might get a bit short.
Race Summary	Crazy Good is worth a look at first asking in a spot where Bonkers and Dance for Gold should take enough cash to keep this one at a playable price.

Laurel Park - Race #5

#2 Prodigy Doll	The combination of the move to Penn along with the addition of Lasix made a huge different for this one when romping to clear the maiden ranks last out.
#7 Whiskey and Rye	Exits a fast Pimlico maiden win and gets a good draw to prompt the pace while drawn outside of other speed.
#5 Kewpie Doll	Only career dirt try produced a nice score, and she'll get some class relief out of Kentucky Downs stakes company last out.
Race Summary

Laurel Park - Race #5

#2 Prodigy Doll	The combination of the move to Penn along with the addition of Lasix made a huge different for this one when romping to clear the maiden ranks last out.
#7 Whiskey and Rye	Exits a fast Pimlico maiden win and gets a good draw to prompt the pace while drawn outside of other speed.
#5 Kewpie Doll	Only career dirt try produced a nice score, and she'll get some class relief out of Kentucky Downs stakes company last out.
Race Summary	Prodigy Doll took a nice step forward last out when adding Lasix, and the 9/2 ML offering would seem fair as she steps up to try winners for the first time.

Laurel Park - Race #7

#3 Unmatchable	Worth a bit of a price look after the razor-sharp comeback score with softer. The waters get much deeper this time around, but that was a heck of a first start for Trombetta, and something similar might do the job here.
#4 Toughest 'Ombre	Has a right to be very tough with this kind after opening a big lead early last time out and just getting caught late.
#2 Thundershook	Reliable type looks for a fourth win in a row after not having to work very hard for any of those last three tallies.
Race Summary	Unmatchable steps up with a sharp comeback race under his belt, and he has run well going this type of trip in the past, so the stretchout doesn't worry much.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-22-2020, 05:52 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #3

#1 MIKIBYTHESEASIDE	Pocket trip, finished second as the favorite, changes pilots.
#6 HIPPESTCATINTOWN	Widened lead through :55 back half mile at Rosecroft.
#4 INTELLIGENT AM	Third at odds-on in lone non-stakes try at this level.
Race Summary	Mikibytheseaside rode the pocket but finished second to a rival who got first run near the stretch. He draws the rail for his second start under these conditions for Team Burke. Play 1-4 and 1-6 exactas.

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #5

#7 GOLDEN SON	Better than latest appears, value remains, use in all gimmicks.
#2 YANKEES BEAST	Gets class relief, inner post and plenty of pace to rally into.
#3 BOXING GLOVES	Seeks third win in a row on the class hike.
Race Summary	Golden Son stayed inside while the outer flow developed and finished a willing third when clear for run in the stretch. He’s a must play at 7-1 on the morning line, so box a 2-3-7 exacta.

Dayton Raceway - Race #1

#4 MEDOLAND BOLT	Lone 4yo in race has right ingredients for an upset bid.
#1 OHIO Z TAM	Made good moves at 26-1 and 36-1 in prior two starts at Dayton.
#9 RISKY MILLION	Second in 4 of last 5 sire stakes starts at half-mile ovals.
Race Summary	Medoland Bolt starts fresh, gets first time Lasix and projects an ideal trip at 10-1 on the morning line. Play 4-1 and 4-9 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-22-2020, 05:53 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park West - Race #6

#5 January Won	Closed swiftly in the stretch and just missed at this level and over this strip; overdue to get his second win and is in a good spot for it.
#6 Elite Mission	Backed out of fast fractions in his last three and could get comfortable on the front end here; a threat to steal.
#2 Point Winner	Takes a off-the-cliff drop from the Grade 3 Swale to this and hasn't done a lot of running since a maiden-claiming win; has the class but dives to the bottom.
Race Summary	January Won closed with a strong move and just missed over this strip last time; can run down this group.

Gulfstream Park West - Race #7

#1 Fouzia	Set the pace and tired late in a stakes race at Kentucky Downs; has some class, can get to the lead and will be difficult to catch.
#9 Palmgirl	Romped to a maiden win in August, has a work since then and moves over to the turf; has the speed to apply pressure.
#5 Turn It On	Was clearly all the way around the course in her only turf try and would not be a surprise here.
Race Summary	Fouzia has been tested against much better and lands in a spot in which she should excel.

Gulfstream Park West - Race #5

#8 American Phenom	Has been a good claim and is one of two for Crichton; got the front end and responded well to his first two-turn attempt and can be tough in his first against winners.
#6 Hardredcandy	Is on a long losing stretch but has been in some good races; most recently was third at Delaware and Paco Lopez is named aboard.
#2 Mr. Axel	Closed strongly and was up in time for a maiden win at Kentucky Downs; likes the grass and should do well going two turns.
Race Summary	American Phenom has been solid in his last two after being haltered for $50,000 on debut; clearly talented and will be a serious threat to more experienced foes here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-22-2020, 10:17 AM

Cappers Access

(Thur) NFL Giants +4-

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-22-2020, 10:18 AM

Hunter Price

Oct 22 '20, 12:55 PM in 1h
Soccer | Rangers vs St. Liege
Play on: St. Liege +251 at BMaker

1* Free Pick on St. Liege +251

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-22-2020, 10:19 AM

Rob Vinciletti

Oct 22 '20, 12:55 PM in 1h
Soccer | AZ vs Napoli
Play on: OVER 3 -122

$$ Thursday Featured Free play $$
The Europa League comp Totals Play is on the OVER in the AZ Alkmaar at Napoli match at 3:00 eastern. Expect a wild and higher scoring game here as Napoli is on fire out scoring opponents 12-1 in the last including a 4-1 win here over Atlanta that saw then score 4 goals in 20 minutes. Alkmaar has ha major trouble in the back field and has conceded 10 goals in the last 4 with very little success in both the Dutch and European scene. Napoli most likely gets a win with the the game going over the total. RV- GC Sports

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-22-2020, 10:19 AM

Steve Janus

Oct 22 '20, 3:00 PM in 3h
Soccer | Crvena Zvezda vs Hoffenheim
Play on: Hoffenheim -182 at BMaker

1* Free Sharp Play on Hoffenheim -182

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-22-2020, 10:20 AM

Cole Faxon

Oct 22 '20, 3:00 PM in 3h
Soccer | Qarabag FK vs Maccabi Tel Aviv FC
Play on: Qarabag FK +250 at Mirage

FREE PLAY on Qarabag FK +250

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-22-2020, 10:22 AM

NFL odds Week 7: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
Patrick Everson

Jared Goff and the Rams, who tumbled to the 49ers on Sunday night, are back in prime time next Monday at home against the Bears. The SuperBook at Westgate opened Los Angeles -6.5.

NFL Week 6 is almost a wrap, save for Monday's twinbill, and NFL Week 7 odds are on the betting board and taking action. Among the noteworthy matchups, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans meet in a battle of unbeatens, and the Chicago Bears head to the West Coast to face the Los Angeles Rams.

The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 6 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

NFL Week 7 odds

These are the current NFL Week 7 odds, as of October 20.

Teams on bye: Minnesota Vikings, Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins

Giants at Eagles odds

Opening line
Eagles -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Philadelphia's comeback fell short in a 30-28 home loss to Baltimore on Sunday, but it impressed the oddsmakers more than New York squeaking out a 20-19 home win over Washington. That said, after opening the Eagles -6.5, The SuperBook ticked down to -6 shortly after posting the line Sunday evening.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-22-2020, 10:22 AM

NFL betting tips for Week 7: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

Aaron Rodgers' revenge tour rolls into Houston coming off an embarrassing loss in Tampa Bay last Sunday. Since Rodgers took over QB duties in 2008, the Cheeseheads are 39-29-1 ATS coming off a loss.

Holy crap, we’re almost at the midway mark of the 2020 NFL season. By this point in the schedule, the NFL betting intel is growing richer by the snap and oddsmakers have a much deeper understanding of what makes teams tick.

Because of that you need a sure-fire NFL betting strategy: get the best number for your bet.

Locking in the best spread or total for your opinion is the only way to beat the bookies, so we share our NFL betting tips for the best lines to bet now and which ones to bet later in NFL Week 7.

Green Bay Packers (-3) at Houston Texans: Bet Now

Boy I feel sorry for the Texans. After Aaron Rodgers and the Packers were embarrassed in Tampa Bay this past weekend, Green Bay’s redemption tour rolls into Houston to take on a 1-5 home team. Books opened the Cheeseheads as field-goal favorites for this 1 p.m. ET Week 7 kickoff and it won’t be sticking around long.

The Texans just gave up 36 points in regulation to the Titans and have allowed four of their six opponents to crack the 30-point plateau on the scoreboard (Pittsburgh could only muster 28 points… pffffft!). While the offense does seem to be figuring something out since shedding the stink of Bill O’Brien’s play calling, it's walking into a shootout Sunday afternoon.

Since Rodgers took over as the No. 1 gunslinger in Green Bay (2008), the Packers have posted a 39-29-1 ATS mark (57 percent) coming off a loss. Yes, Sunday’s defeat to the Bucs was a bad one but it’s only giving us extra value on this short spread. Also, the Pack are back indoors Sunday, where they’ve averaged 38 points per game this season. I wonder if they've ever considered putting a roof on Lambeau? Nahhhhhhh.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (+1.5): Bet Later

The Titans don’t get any respect. Maybe it’s sour grapes from their whole COVID-19 outbreak. Maybe it’s the bad taste leftover from Ryan Tannehill’s days in Miami. Whatever the case, Tennessee is catching the points at home hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers in a Week 7 battle of undefeated teams.

There’s enough on either side of this spread to make a case for Pittsburgh or Tennessee, but if you are siding with the home team, you may want to wait this one out and see how many extra points you can grab before clicking submit on the Titans.

This line opened as low as Steelers -1 and is out there as high as -2. Tennessee needed a last-second drive to force overtime and secure the win versus Houston at home (albeit playing its second game in six days) but Pittsburgh’s convincing win over Cleveland will puff this one up – especially with the Steelers boasting a surplus of public support each and every week.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (Under 51): Bet Now

It’s the 2020 NFL season soooooo… you get a 50-point total! And you get a 50-point total! And YOU get a 50-point total! With scoring still at a record pace, oddsmakers are stuffing as much cushion as they can into these weekly totals until the universe balances itself out.

The Panthers-Saints Week 7 showdown opened with the total at 51 points and while there hasn’t been a hint of movement in the first few hours of action, I believe this is headed downward. The Saints have had a bye week to study up and tighten the bolts on a defense that still ranks sixth in DVOA at Football Outsiders. And while there’s a slim hope that Carolina will return RB Christian McCaffrey (most likely Week 8), the Panthers offense has slowed down after a fiery start to the season with efforts of 23 and 16 points the past two games.

Another thing to consider is how well New Orleans knows not only Carolina QB Teddy Bridgewater (played for the Saints for two seasons) but also Panthers offensive coordinator Joe Brady (Saints offensive assistant for two years), who pretty much ripped pages out of the New Orleans playbook for his tenure at LSU and is running similar systems in Charlotte this year. If you’re on board with the Under, you'll want to get it sooner rather than later.

Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons (Under 56.5): Bet Later

This Over/Under opened as low as 55.5 at one select sportsbook and lasted less than a half-hour before action tacked on another point and the rest of the industry posted 56.5 for Lions at Falcons. And why not? Both teams love to score and hate to defend, ranked 28th and 30th in defensive DVOA (heading into Week 6).

But if you're zigging when everyone else is zagging on this total, wait and see how much higher the number climbs before jumping in on the Under. Detroit and Atlanta are each coming off an offensive outpouring in Week 6, with the Lions laying 34 points on the Jaguars and the Falcons flipping the Vikings for 40 points. That recency bias has built this lofty number.

We’ve seen these groups fall flat on their face at times this season. Atlanta scored just 16 points in back-to-back outings before Sunday’s explosion, and Detroit hadn’t cracked 30 points until this weekend’s run-in with lowly Jacksonville. These teams have faced some tall totals in past meetings and have gone just 2-4 O/U in their last six head-to-head encounters.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-22-2020, 10:23 AM

Tech Trends - Week 7
Bruce Marshall

Week 7 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, Oct. 22 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all 14 matchups. We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Thursday, Oct. 22

N.Y. GIANTS at PHILADELPHIA

Giants have covered last three trips to Linc as road team has covered last four in series.
G-Men now 3-0 as road dog in 2020 (visiting team has covered first five NY games), 7-2 since 2019 in role, 13-3 since 2018.
Birds on 5-14 skid vs. line last 19 at Linc.

Tech Edge: Giants, based on team and series trends.