Thursday 10/22/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

303NY GIANTS -304 PHILADELPHIA
NY GIANTS are 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the last 3 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 7

Thursday, October 22

NY Giants @ Philadelphia

Game 303-304
October 22, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
121.717
Philadelphia
131.966
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 10
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 3 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-3 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 7

Thursday, October 22

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY GIANTS (1 - 5) at PHILADELPHIA (1 - 4 - 1) - 10/22/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 57-35 ATS (+18.5 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 36-20 ATS (+14.0 Units) in road games in October games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-2 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 4-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 7

Trend Report

Thursday, October 22

NY Giants @ Philadelphia
NY Giants
NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of NY Giants's last 10 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Week 7 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

Eagles right tackle Lane Johnson (ankle) sat out Sunday against Baltimore and is likely out this week against the Giants, too, contributing to Philly's lengthy injury list.

NFL Week 6 is in the rearview mirror, NFL Week 7 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes the typical injury news, most notably a banged-up Philadelphia Eagles outfit working on a short week, with a Thursday game against the New York Giants.

Week 7 Injuries

Philadelphia Eagles: Right tackle Lane Johnson (ankle) sat out Sunday against Baltimore and is likely out this week against the Giants, too. Tight end Zach Ertz could miss three to four weeks with a high ankle sprain, and running back Miles Sanders (knee) is also expected to sit this week. The Eagles opened 6.5-point favorites Sunday and plummeted to -3.5 Monday at The SuperBook at Westgate.

“The Eagles move was due strictly to injuries,” SuperBook risk manager Cameron Coombs said, noting the total is down a point to 44, as well. “Also, there is buzz over if Carson Wentz is going to start.”

It seems likely Wentz – who took a beating against the Ravens – will play. But as CBS Sports’ Jeff Kerr reported, of the 11 Week 1 starters on offense, by the fourth quarter of Sunday’s loss, there were only two left: Wentz and center Jason Kelce.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hot & Not Report - Week 7
Matt Blunt

Who's Hot

1) NFL home teams in divisional games are 18-7 SU overall this year; 12-4 SU since the beginning of Week 2
2) NFL divisional favorites (no matter the site) are 17-8 SU this year overall, and 13-3 SU since beginning of Week 2

These look like some conflicting runs for some of the divisional games in Week 7, as there are numerous divisional road favorites this week. Those recent runs since Week 2 have more or less lined up with just having the home team deserving of laying chalk, and it is the run related to the home teams I do want to lean on here.

Week 7 NFL Division Matchups

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia (-4)
Cleveland (-3) at Cincinnati
Dallas (-1) at Washington
Carolina at New Orleans (-7.5)
Buffalo (-13) at N.Y. Jets
Seattle (-3.5) at Arizona
Kansas City (-9) at Denver

As you can see above, five of the seven games actually have road favorites this week, so one of these runs is likely to be tough this week.

During that 18-7 SU run for NFL home teams in divisional games, those same teams have gone 16-9 ATS, so taking the points with some of those ugly home underdogs should definitely be worth a look.

Who Do You Follow?

Eagles
Bengals
Football Team
Saints
Jets
Cardinals
Broncos

But this is still more about the outright wins here, and with Cincinnati, Washington, and Arizona all catching about a FG or less at home this week, an outright win by at least one of them shouldn't be all that far fetched.

Expecting Denver or the New York Jets to pull off an outright upset – it would be two in a row for the Broncos as big dogs – are far less likely, but you just never know in this league.

Of the two divisional home favorites this week, Philly and New Orleans definitely come with their share of warts this season, but the Eagles showed a lot of character in fighting back against Baltimore like they did and New Orleans is coming off their bye week.

Philly continues to get hit hard by the injury bug everywhere on their roster, and the fact that their game this week is the TNF contest on a short week, you can understand why that opener of Philly -6 has been bet down the way it has. But outright wins by home teams in divisional games are what make up the bulk of both of those runs, so maybe a ML option on the Eagles is worth considering if you've got enough faith in the starters they are putting out there.

But Week 7's divisional games in the marketplace will be decided overall by what these home underdogs do in those five contests, which brings me to...


Who's Not

1) NFL divisional road favorites are 0-5 ATS and 2-3 SU this year

The Los Angeles Rams were the latest victim of this trend last week on Sunday Night Football when they lost to the 49ers, as they joined Kansas City not covering (Week 2 vs LAC), Buffalo not covering (Week 2 vs Miami), Philadelphia not covering (Week 1 vs Washington), and Indianapolis not covering (Week 1 vs Jacksonville) in their opportunities as divisional road favorites.

Only the Chiefs and Bills were able to escape with a "W" in the win column for those games, and we've got five games that fit this scenario in Week 7 to potentially fire on?

Who do you Fade?

Browns
Cowboys
Bills
Seahawks

To start with, just like last week's “Not” run giving the market yet another reason to fade Dallas again (and successfully doing so vs Arizona), going against the Cowboys pops up again this week in a game that's already been bet down to a pick'em.

Tough to like anything you're seeing out of the Cowboys these days, but despite all that, they are still in first place in the division and remain the favorites to win the NFC East. If that's the line of thought you generally subscribe too, it means you must believe the rest of the NFC East to really be that bad, which makes holding a Washington ATS/ML ticket at this current price a little tough to really get behind.

Tough to go with Dallas for sure, but this winless run for road divisional favorites aside, if you didn't grab Washington at the opener of +3, they are probably one home division dog that's easier to pass on this week.

Of the rest of the games, Cincinnati is in a rematch spot after losing 35-30 to Cleveland on a Thursday Night Football game back in Week 2.

That was one of those SU wins but ATS losses for divisional home favorites that day, and if you go on what you saw from Cleveland in Week 6, fading them here in Week 7 with a Bengals team with revenge, is 4-2 ATS, and having both of these runs working in their favor. Seems quite an attractive home underdog to me.


Which leaves plays on Arizona (+3.5), NYJ (+13), and Denver (+9) to consider, and as ugly as it will feel, perhaps taking the points with those two big underdogs at least are something to think about.

Denver played well enough to get the win in New England on Sunday, but that was likely more to do with everything the Patriots have dealt with in recent weeks.

A Broncos cover will only come with another strong day from this defense – and likely a surprisingly productive one from the Broncos offense – but the Chiefs have been flirting with more ATS losses than their 4-2 ATS record actually shows.

Kansas City was able to just sneak over the number against the Bills on Monday Night – partly because KC's RB ran out of bounds late in the game – KC lost outright to the Raiders, covered a -11 number vs New England thanks to a pick-six off of Edelman's hands among a multitude of errors for New England that day, throttled Baltimore as a small road dog, and needed OT to knock off the Chargers.

That's four games with the Chiefs listed as a favorite that they could have easily gone 0-4 ATS rather than the 2-2 like they did, and it was the perceived two worst teams of that group (Las Vegas, L.A. Chargers) that arguably gave KC the most trouble.

But those two organizations are also the only two division rivals of KC on that list, so it does suggest there is plenty to know about Mahomes and this Chiefs offense and what to expect. Denver's right there in that same boat.

I don't need to mention how bad the Jets are, and after getting shutout 24-0 in Miami, the Jets are probably going to be the most faded team this week in straight bets, survivor pools, teasers, and ML parlays.

New York deserves every part of that reputation right now, but there does come a point where the points a team is getting is too far ballooned away from reality because of the market perception/reality being what it is on a team.

Is that the case here with New York catching nearly two TD's at home versus a Buffalo team that's a little unsure of what day of the week they are even supposed to be playing on right now? I'm not sure. But as gut-wrenching as it is to write these words for my bankroll, taking the points with the Jets is the only way I'd look in this game.

But let's see just how high this line climbs as Sunday approaches. After all, Buffalo's gone through all those rescheduling dates lately and has this Jets game sandwiched between home games against the Chiefs and Patriots.

Very easy to overlook a brutal team like the Jets have shown they are this season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 7

Giants (1-5) @ Philadelphia (1-4-1)
— In their last four games, Giants’ offense has four TD’s on 33 drives.
— Giants’ defense scored a TD in each of their last two games.
— Big Blue is 3-0 ATS as a road underdog TY, losing by 4-8-3 points on road.
— Giants covered 13 of their last 16 games as a road underdog.
— Four of their six games stayed under the total.

— Eagles are 0-2-1 SU at home, giving up 30 ppg.
— Philly lost last two games, giving up 38-30 points.
— Underdogs covered five of their six games this season.
— Eagles are 4-11-1 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite.
— Four of their six games went over the total.

— Eagles won last seven series games; five of those wins were by 6 or fewer points.
— Giants lost their last four visits here, by 5-3-3-6 points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Giants vs. Eagles Week 7 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

I should have known that backing (and winning) with quarterback Carson Wentz and the Eagles in their first appearance in prime time a few weeks ago would have me covering numerous prime time Eagles games shortly thereafter.

Week 7 begins with Philadelphia hosting the New York Giants in a game that I still don't understand how the NFC East continues to get these television spots, and then next week it's a Sunday Night Football appearance for Philadelphia when they host the Cowboys.

The Giants are scheduled for MNF as well next week too. For the life of me I have not seen what this division has done in recent years to continue to earn these stand alone games.

Betting Resources

Week 7 Matchup: NFC East
Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Date: Thursday, Oct. 22, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network

Carson Wentz and the Eagles seek their second win of the season as they host the Giants on Thursday. (AP)

Line Movements

Spread: Philadelphia -4.5
Money-Line: Philadelphia -240, N.Y. Giants +200
Total: 45

2020 Betting Stats

N.Y. Giants

Overall: 1-5 SU, 3-3 ATS, 2-4 O/U
Road: 0-3 SU, 3-0 ATS, 1-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 16.8 (Rank 31)
Defense PPG: 25.3 (Rank 16)
Offense YPG: 275.3 (Rank 32)
Defense YPG: 342.0 (Rank 12)

Philadelphia

Overall: 1-4-1 SU, 2-4 ATS, 4-2 O/U
Home: 0-2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 23.5 (Rank 22)
Defense PPG: 29.2 (Rank 23)
Offense YPG: 329.3 (Rank 27)
Defense YPG: 355.2 (Rank 17)

Handicapping the Total

It's actually the total that I believe makes more sense to get involved with here, as I don't know how you can comfortably be confident in taking either side on the point spread right now. That's going to be a brief topic when I get to it, but regarding the total, I am leaning towards the way of this game being one of those 'sloppy shootouts' where mistakes made directly lead to points.

That's not going to be the common belief here at least from the Eagles side of things when you see their injury report, but I've got to hand it to Wentz, he's showing he cares more and is finding a way to put up points no matter who's out there with him.

Dealing with injuries on offense is nothing new for the Eagles this year, yet they've put up 23, 25, 29, and 28 points in their last four games, and have played some pretty good defenses in that stretch as well.

I generally want nothing to do with trusting Wentz to positively produce something, but he's trying to make it work in whatever way it can right now and I've got to respect that. He also knows this Giants personnel well, and even with a new coaching regime there, I'm not sure anything changes from a confidence standpoint in terms of moving the ball for Wentz given New York is still a 1-5 SU team this year.

A lack of familiarity and/or practice time Wentz has had with his weapons may hinder the execution of this Eagles attack – along with Wentz's usual handful of air mailed throws – but against this Giants defense that shouldn't be a huge concern.

The Giants are going to expect to be able to move the ball as well against an Eagles team that has allowed 30 or more the past two weeks, and has only given up fewer than 23 points once this year. You give the Giants 23 points here and the Eagles hold serve with what the point-spread suggests, this total starts to look a little low right?

Now, of course this could be such a bad timing situation for these two teams in it being a short week and the like, where something like a 20-14 game is what we get. But that's always going to be the risk, and when the common approach is to already not want to trust either offense here for an 'over' play, why not put a little faith out there in those guys.

They are pros after all, and somehow my trust in a guy who I've believed is highly overrated for a long time now (Wentz) was already somehow rewarded this year.

It was just a few Thursday's ago that we had a Broncos/Jets game on the card and the same hesitance to trust those offenses was the common theme. Well, a 37-28 shootout broke out that evening to easily cash the 'over', and following a similar script is the way I'm willing to bet this Giants/Eagles game plays out.

Head-to-Head History

Dec. 19, 2019 - Philadelphia 34 at N.Y. Giants 17, Eagles -4, Over 44
Dec. 9, 2019 - Philadelphia 23 vs. N.Y. Giants 17 (OT), Giants +9.5, Under 45.5
Nov. 25, 2018 - Philadelphia 25 vs. N.Y. Giants 22, Giants +4.5, Under 49
Oct. 11, 2018 - Philadelphia 34 at N.Y. Giants 13, Eagles -1.5, Over 45

Handicapping the Side

I'll have to save some of the adjectives for Wentz's play for the prime time piece next week against Dallas, but I said in the Eagles first piece earlier this year that I never really want any part of him as a favorite, and that holds true here. We've already seen an initial surge of Giants support from the opener of +6, and while it has held steady in its current range for the most part, the Giants side would be the only way I could look.

Even with New York off their first win of the year, they are still just a .500 ATS team in their last eight division games dating back to the start of last year (4-4 ATS).

Three of those four ATS wins in division play have come on the road though, and the fact that they've scored at least 17 points in all eight of those games suggests that understanding the personnel within their division is something Giants QB Daniel Jones is getting comfortable in taking advantage of when he can.

But this is still the New York Giants we are talking about, the team that coughed up a big lead to the Bears, have never really been in it against far better competition (Pittsburgh, SF, LAR), let Dallas come back to beat them with two consecutive FG's in the final two minutes, and nearly coughed up that first win they ultimately did get a week ago.

The Giants just find ways to lose as well, and that makes them an easy pass too.

Key Injuries

N.Y. Giants

LB Tae Crowder: Hamstring - Questionable
CB Darnay Holmes: Neck - Questionable
S Adrian Colbert: Shoulder - Questionable
WR C.J. Board: Concussion - Questionable
LB Oshane Ximines: Shoulder - Out

Philadelphia

TE Zach Ertz: Ankle - Out
WR Alshon Jeffery: Foot - Out
RB Miles Sanders: Knee - Out
T Jack Driscoll: Ankle - Out
DT Malik Jackson: Quad - Out
S K'Von Wallace: Shoulder - Doubtful
LB Duke Riley: Ribs - Probable
T Lane Johnson: Ankle - Probable
WR DeSean Jackson: Hamstring - Probable
CB Avonte Maddox: Ankle - Probable
S Marcus Epps: Ribs - Questionable

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 8
Bruce Marshall

Week 8 of the College Football season kicks off on Thursday, October 22 and we've identified betting trends and angles for key matchups between FBS and FCS matchups.

We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Thursday, Oct. 22

ARKANSAS STATE at APP STATE (ESPN, 7:30 p.m.)

App 0-3 vs. line TY, all as favorite. Now on 2-7 skid as chalk.
Red Wolves 4-2 as dog since 2019 (2-0 TY).

Tech Edge: Arkansas State, based on recent trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

305ARKANSAS ST -306 APPALACHIAN ST
APPALACHIAN ST is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) vs. good offenses (>=5.9 YPP) over the last 2 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 8

Thursday, October 22

Arkansas St @ Appalachian St

Game 305-306
October 22, 2020 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arkansas St
74.640
Appalachian St
93.254
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Appalachian St
by 18 1/2
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Appalachian St
by 11
64 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Appalachian St
(-11); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 22

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARKANSAS ST (3 - 2) at APPALACHIAN ST (2 - 1) - 10/22/2020, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
APPALACHIAN ST is 1-0 against the spread versus ARKANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
APPALACHIAN ST is 1-0 straight up against ARKANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 8

Trend Report

Thursday, October 22

Arkansas State @ Appalachian State
Arkansas State
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arkansas State's last 7 games on the road
Arkansas State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Appalachian State
Appalachian State is 19-1 SU in its last 20 games at home
Appalachian State is 21-2 SU in its last 23 games

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 8

Thursday’s game

Arkansas State (2-2) @ Appalachian State (2-1)
— Arkansas State is already playing its 6th game; they’re 2-2 vs I-A teams.
— Ark State beat Georgia State 59-52 LW, throwing for 551 yards.
— Red Wolves gave up 500+ TY in three of its four I-A games.
— ASU has 9 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— Red Wolves have 128 returning starts on the offensive line.
— ASU’s plays two QB’s, who have a combined 18 starts.
— Red Wolves are 4-1 ATS in last five games as a road underdog.

— This is App State’s first game in four weeks, first I-A game in five weeks.
— App State has 8 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Mountaineers have 115 returning starts on the offensive line.
— App State has a senior QB with 26 career starts.
— Last 3+ years, App State is 10-8-1 ATS as a home favorite.

— Road team won all three series games; Ark State (+10) won its last visit here 40-27, five years ago.
— Teams last met in 2018; App State (-10) won 35-9.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arkansas State vs. Appalachian State Odds
Jonathan Willis

The Appalachian State Mountaineers will finally play their first Sun Belt game on Thursday night.

Conference games for the school against Louisiana and Georgia Southern were both postponed, so the Mountaineers haven’t played an FBS opponent in over a month heading into this clash with the Arkansas State Red Wolves.

BETTING RESOURCES

Week 8 Matchup: Sun Belt
Venue: Kidd Brewer Stadium
Location: Boone, North Carolina
Date: Thursday, October 22, 2020
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Line Movements

Spread: Appalachian State -13.5
Money-Line: App State -455, Arkansas State +340
Total: 66.5

App State has been known to lay plenty of points and that will remain the same on Thursday when Arkansas State pays a visti. (AP)

The Red Wolves picked up their first conference win of the season last Thursday against Georgia State. Arkansas State survived a shootout, winning 59-52, and head coach Blake Anderson made the decision to fire defensive coordinator David Duggan and defensive pass-game coordinator Ed Pinkham in the wake of the result.

High-scoring games have become the norm for Arkansas State, and the over has cashed in each of the last four games.

The Red Wolves have largely outperformed expectations too with a 4-1 ATS mark, highlighted by an upset win over Kansas State as a 15.5-point underdog back in Week 2.

This will be the first time the Mountaineers have taken the field in the month of October. Appalachian State had a little bit of a scare the last time we saw them play, as this team trailed FCS Campbell 13-7 late in the second quarter as a 33.5-point favorite. However, the Mountaineers turned it on in the second half and nearly covered the spread in a 52-21 victory.

Appalachian State has yet to cover a game this season. The Mountaineers lost outright to Marshall as a six-point favorite the last time they played an FBS opponent, and they struggled against Charlotte as more than a two-touchdown favorite in their opener.

Betting Analysis – Red Wolves

Overall: 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS, 4-1 O/U

It was clear that Anderson needed to shake things up on defense after the Red Wolves were gashed by the Panthers last Thursday. Arkansas State currently ranks 120th in defensive SP+, and this unit is the worst of any team that has played multiple games. The Red Wolves are allowing 43.0 PPG and 501.5 YPG with the secondary conceding a stunning 9.2 YPA.

Anderson promoted safeties coach Nick Paremski to interim defensive coordinator over the weekend. Paremski has experience calling plays as he was the defensive coordinator at West Texas A&M for three years before coming to Jonesboro.

This offense has had to put up big numbers to win games, and Arkansas State has been great on this side of the ball. The Red Wolves rank 24th in offensive SP+, as both Logan Bonner and Layne Hatcher are moving the ball effectively through the air.

Neither quarterback is much of a scrambler, but they have combined to complete 63.6 percent of their passes for 1,834 yards with 21 touchdowns and four interceptions in five games. They shredded Georgia State last week as Arkansas State threw eight touchdown passes against the Panthers.

That production has made this passing game one of the best in college football. Jonathan Adams Jr., Dahu Green, and Brandon Bowling are all having great seasons as the leading receivers, but the run game has struggled to get the job done.

Arkansas State is averaging just 3.0 YPC, and the Red Wolves had 39 carries for just 58 yards last week.

Betting Analysis - Mountaineers

Overall: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U

COVID-19 upended Appalachian State’s schedule, and it led to the Mountaineers postponing two games over the last month. It continues to be a major problem for this program too, as there are currently seven skill position players listed as questionable to play in this game due to the virus.

That hasn’t been easy for first-year head coach Shawn Clark since he is looking to lead Appalachian State to at least a share of the Sun Belt title for the fifth straight season.

The Mountaineers do have one of the most experienced quarterbacks in the country in Zac Thomas. Thomas has never been a world beater at the position, but he is a steady hand that won’t lose you the game.

This is his third year as Appalachian State’s starter, and he was named Preseason First Team All-Sun Belt prior to the start of the year. However, he hasn’t looked great through three games, completing just 62.3 percent of his passes for 603 yards with two touchdowns and two picks. Additionally, he hasn’t been the run threat we have seen in the past either with just 45 rushing yards.

Appalachian State has been able to run the ball well this season. Daetrich Harrington is averaging 5.1 YPC as the team’s leading rusher, and the three backs behind him are all averaging well over 6.0 YPC. Marcus Williams Jr. is averaging 8.4 YPC, but he is one of the players that is questionable to play on Thursday.

Thomas Hennigan has been responsible for nearly half of Appalachian State’s receiving numbers, catching 13 passes for 275 yards. He might see even more targets against Arkansas State as fellow senior starters Malik Williams and Jalen Virgil are both 'questionable' for Thursday. The Mountaineers’ top three tight ends are questionable due to COVID-19 too, so we might see a number of new faces.

Defense has been a hallmark for Appalachian State over the years, and this side of the ball has been solid through three games. The Mountaineers have one of the best pass defenses in the country, allowing just 5.5 YPA, and they are currently in the top 15 nationally in both scoring defense and total defense.

However, they haven’t faced an offense with a passing game like Arkansas State. Neither Marshall nor Campbell can move the ball well through the air, so this will be the secondary’s first real challenge.

Head-to-Head

This will be just the fourth meeting between these two programs.

Interestingly enough, the home team has yet to win a game in this series, as Appalachian State won in Jonesboro in 2014 and 2018, while Arkansas State won in Boone in 2015.

Last Meeting

Appalachian State dismantled Arkansas State 35-9 the last time these teams met. The Mountaineers’ defense rose to the occasion in a big way, picking off Justice Hansen three times in the victory.

The Red Wolves could only muster 3.2 YPC and 4.9 YPA on the evening, as this offense was no match for App State’s defense.

The Mountaineers were happy to just grind the Red Wolves down on offense. Appalachian State ran the ball 38 times for 246 yards and three touchdowns, and this team will certainly try to establish the run on Thursday. A lot has changed in Boone over the last two seasons, but the Mountaineers will still run the ball as much as possible.

Notable Betting Trends

-- Appalachian State has failed to cover four straight times as a favorite

-- The over has cashed in each of Arkansas State’s last four games

-- Arkansas State is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games