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(Fri) NCAAF Wisconsin -19-
(Fri) MLB Dodgers -150
(Fri) NCAAF Wisconsin -19-
(Fri) MLB Dodgers -150
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Paul Leiner
Two CFB and Horse Pick 10/23
100* Illinois +19.5
100* Tulsa -11
Belmont Race 7
#1 Forth Worth $10 wps
$2 exacta box 1-2-5Comment
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955LA DODGERS -956 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 90-58 SU (26.2 Units) after 2 straight games where they committed no errors in the last 3 seasons.Comment
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MLB
Dunkel
Friday, October 23
LA Dodgers @ Tampa Bay
Game 955-956
October 23, 2020 @ 8:08 pm
Dunkel Rating:
LA Dodgers
(Buehler) 16.417
Tampa Bay
(Morton) 17.518
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-155
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+135); UnderComment
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MLB
Long Sheet
Friday, October 23
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LA DODGERS (53 - 21) vs. TAMPA BAY (50 - 26) - 8:08 PM
WALKER BUEHLER (R) vs. CHARLIE MORTON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LA DODGERS are 147-153 (-36.1 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game since 1997.
TAMPA BAY is 50-26 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 11-1 (+9.1 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off this season.
TAMPA BAY is 34-17 (+12.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 39-15 (+20.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TAMPA BAY is 31-17 (+9.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
TAMPA BAY is 22-8 (+14.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 1-1 (+0.2 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)
WALKER BUEHLER vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
No recent starts.
CHARLIE MORTON vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
MORTON is 0-1 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 4.67 and a WHIP of 1.385.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)Comment
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MLB
Friday, October 23
World Series
Tampa Bay vs Los Angeles (1-1) (@ Arlington)
Morton is 4-0, 2.45 in his last five starts.
— Rays are 8-4 in his starts this season.
— Under is 7-3 in his last ten starts.
— Snell threw two scoreless innings in a two-inning start vs LA last year.
— He allowed 11 runs in 11 IP in two career starts against the Dodgers.
— Tampa Bay lost four of its last six games.
— Rays are 50-26 this season.
— Under is 8-3 in their last 11 games.
— Tampa Bay lost its only previous World Series, in 2008.
Buehler is 1-1, 1.57 in his last five starts (23 IP)
— Dodgers are 10-2 in his starts this season.
— His last five starts stayed under the total.
— Buehler is 2-1, 2.44 in ten postseason starts.
— He’s never pitched against Tampa Bay.
— Dodgers are 53-21 this year; they’ve won four of last five games.
— Dodgers are in playoffs for the 8th year in a row.
— LA is 32-12 away from home this season.
— Over is 6-2 in their last eight games.
— Dodgers haven’t won World Series since 1988; they lost World Series in 2017-18.Comment
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MLB
Friday, October 23
Trend Report
LA Dodgers @ Tampa Bay
LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing at home against LA DodgersComment
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Game 3 Odds: Dodgers vs. Rays
Tom Wilkinson
We had a rarity during the 2020 MLB postseason on Thursday. Neither the Tampa Bay Rays nor the Los Angeles Dodgers had yet to experience an off day in the middle of a series.
Both teams surely appreciated the time off, but now it’s time to return to action on Friday. The Rays will be the nominal hosts in Game 3 on Friday, October 23, shortly after 8:00 p.m. ET, and it will be broadcast on FOX.
Betting Resources
Matchup: World Series Game 3
Venue: Globe Life Field
Location: Arlington, Texas
Date: Friday, Oct. 23, 2020
Time: 8:09 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Line Movements
Money-Line: Dodgers -150, Rays +140
Run-Line: Dodgers -1.5 (+105), Rays +1.5 (-125)
Total: 7.5
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -200, Tampa Bay +175
Tampa Bay right-hander Charlie Morton takes the mound in Game 3 of the World Series against Los Angeles. (AP)
Game 2 Recap
Tampa Bay evened the series with a 6-4 victory over LA on Wednesday. Blake Snell was masterful until the fifth inning, and the Rays’ bullpen got the job done from there, allowing only three hits and two earned runs in the final 4.1 innings.
Brandon Lowe was the hero of the day for the Rays. Lowe has struggled throughout the postseason, but he opened the scoring with a solo home run off Tony Gonsolin in the first inning and hit a two-run blast off Dustin May in the fifth inning.
For the second straight game in this series, the 'over' tickets cashed for the game and in the first-five inning wagers as well.
Tampa Bay connected on both of those wagers as well, leading 5-2 after five innings and prop bettors looking for early action also saw the Rays score in the first inning, which may have helped or hurt your wagers.
If you follow our 2020 Playoffs Betting Results, you can see that the run-line favorites have been a great return for bettors while those tinkering in the totals market have seen great back-and-forth decisions.
Game 3 Pitching Analysis
Starting Pitchers
Walker Buehler
Charlie Morton
The Dodgers will send their ace to the mound on Friday. Walker Buehler has been electric for each of the last two years. He came into his own in 2019 with a 14-4 record coupled with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. Buehler showed excellent command with a 5.8 K/BB, and while his walk rate is up, his WHIP was even better in 2020. He finished the season with a 3.44 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in 36.2 innings of action.
Buehler has been great in four playoff appearances over the last month. He has allowed just 15 hits in 19 innings of work, striking out 29 batters and posting a 1.89 ERA. However, he has had some issues with control. He has walked 11 batters during that span, and that may be due to his blister issues. Buehler has been dealing with multiple blisters on his pitching hand for the last month.
Charlie Morton will head to the bump for the Rays. Uncle Charlie has been a reliable postseason starter throughout his long career. He has appeared in 12 playoff games, and he boasts a 7-2 record with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. His command has improved in October with a 9.6 K/9 in the postseason, and Morton has won all three of his starts for the Rays in these playoffs.
Morton faced the Dodgers in the 2017 World Series when he was on the Houston Astros, and he was lights out in two games. He posted a 1.74 ERA and a 0.58 WHIP in 10.1 innings of work, and he closed the door on the Dodgers in Game 7 of that series.
Postseason Team Records with Pitchers
Dodgers - Walker Buehler (3-1)
Oct. 17 - L.A. 3 Atlanta 1
Oct. 12 - L.A. 1 Atlanta 5
Oct. 5 - L.A. 5 San Diego 1
Sept. 30 - L.A. 4 - San Diego 2
Rays - Charlie Morton (3-0)
Oct. 17 - Tampa Bay 4 Houston 2
Oct. 12 - Tampa Bay 4 Houston 2
Oct. 7 - Tampa Bay 8 Houston 4
Game 3 Bullpen Analysis
Rest brings Rewards
The day off means that both bullpens will have a little extra time to recharge.
That is a little more beneficial to the Dodgers, as they used six relievers in Game 2 after using four relievers in Game 1. Dylan Floro, Victor Gonzalez, Alex Wood, and Dustin May might not see much action since all four pitchers have thrown at least 24 pitches in the first two games, and postseason standout Julio Urias won’t be available since he is starting Game 4 on Saturday night.
Tampa Bay used all three of its best relievers on Wednesday with Nick Anderson and Pete Fairbanks each seeing a lot of work.
Diego Castillo had a three-pitch outing, so he is likely to be one of the first arms out of the bullpen, and either John Curtiss or Ryan Thompson will probably take the hill too.
Players to Watch - Dodgers
Corey Seager’s great postseason continues to get better. Seager became the first shortstop to hit seven home runs in a single postseason after his solo blast off Fairbanks in the eighth inning in Game 2. He was the only Dodger with multiple hits on Wednesday, picking up two of LA’s five total base knocks, and he currently has a 1.161 OPS in these playoffs.
The Dodgers have the best one to six line-up in the majors, and that has paid huge dividends already in this series.
Manager Dave Roberts has not tinkered with the batting order, and his stars continue to answer the call with all six players getting on base at least once in each game against the Rays. Seager has been the best, reaching base five times, but the consistency down the line has been impressive.
Players to Watch - Rays
It took 16 games for Brandon Lowe to finally make an impact in the postseason. Lowe had just six hits and one home run prior to Game 2 on Wednesday night, but Kevin Cash has stuck with his young star. He was rewarded with his two home run outing, and the Rays are hoping he can build off that. To highlight his struggles these playoffs, Lowe only has a .476 OPS after those long balls.
Randy Arozarena has made a lot of history over the last month, and he added to his list of achievements on Wednesday. He recorded his 22nd hit of the postseason, tying Derek Jeter for the most hits in one postseason by a rookie. Arozarena has carried the Rays to the World Series with seven home runs and a 1.222 OPS. The next highest mark on the team is Manuel Margot with five home runs and a .962 OPS.
Tampa Bay is one of the biggest examples of the three true outcomes era of baseball. Collectively, the Rays have struck out in nearly 30 percent of their at-bats this postseason, but they also have 28 home runs and 52 walks. This team is only hitting .213, yet they are making the most of the long ball.
After watching the first two games in this series, Seager and Lowe are both listed at 11/1 odds to win the World Series Most Valuable Player award.Comment
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Tech Trends - Week 8
Bruce Marshall
Week 8 of the College Football season kicks off on Thursday, October 22 and we've identified betting trends and angles for key matchups between FBS and FCS matchups.
We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.
Friday, Oct. 23
TULSA at SOUTH FLORIDA (ESPN, 7:30 p.m.)
Tulsa on 6-2 spread run since late 2019.
In USF’s last five games vs. FCS foes prior to last week vs. Temple, it has not been closer than 21 points (1-4 vs. line).
Bulls now 2-9 vs. spread last 11 vs. FCS foes at Raymond James Stadium.
Tech Edge: Tulsa, based on team trends.
UL-LAFAYETTE at UAB (CBSSN, 8:00 p.m.)
Cajuns have cooled vs. line, just 1-3 in 2020 after Coastal Carolina loss, now 1-6 last seven against spread since late 2019.
All after 16-4-2 spread surge previous for Napier.
ULL however is 7-2-1 last ten as dog for Napier.
UAB no covers last three at home after 14-3-1 spread uptick as host.
Tech Edge: Slight to ULL, if dog, based on team trends.
ILLINOIS at WISCONSIN (BTN, 8:00 p.m.)
Home team has covered last four in series including big Illini upset in 2019.
Illini was 6-1 as Big Ten dog in 2019, and Badgers 2-6 as Big Ten home chalk since 2018.
Tech Edge: Slight to Illinois, based on recent trends.Comment
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307TULSA -308 S FLORIDA
S FLORIDA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents in the last 3 seasons.
309LA LAFAYETTE -310 UAB
LA LAFAYETTE is 39-18 ATS (19.2 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. since 1992.Comment
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NCAAF
Dunkel
Week 8
Friday, October 23
Jacksonville St @ FIU
Game 397-398
October 23, 2020 @ 7:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville St
60.468
FIU
63.805
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
FIU
by 3 1/2
61
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
FIU
by 10 1/2
59 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville St
(+10 1/2); Over
SE Missouri St @ Southern Illinois
Game 000-000
October 23, 2020 @ 7:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
SE Missouri St
60.105
Southern Illinois
74.700
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Southern Illinois
by 14 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Southern Illinois
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Southern Illinois
N/A
Tulsa @ South Florida
Game 307-308
October 23, 2020 @ 7:30 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Tulsa
92.499
South Florida
65.803
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tulsa
by 26 1/2
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tulsa
by 10
51
Dunkel Pick:
Tulsa
(-10); Over
Illinois @ Wisconsin
Game 387-388
October 23, 2020 @ 8:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Illinois
83.586
Wisconsin
108.879
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Wisconsin
by 25 1/2
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Wisconsin
by 20
51
Dunkel Pick:
Wisconsin
(-20); Over
LA-Lafayette @ UAB
Game 309-310
October 23, 2020 @ 8:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
LA-Lafayette
82.716
UAB
89.419
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
UAB
by 6 1/2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
UAB
by 2
50
Dunkel Pick:
UAB
(-2); OverComment
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NCAAF
Long Sheet
Friday, October 23
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TULSA (1 - 1) at S FLORIDA (1 - 4) - 10/23/2020, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
S FLORIDA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
S FLORIDA is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) in home games after playing a conference game since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
TULSA is 1-0 against the spread versus S FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
S FLORIDA is 1-0 straight up against TULSA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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LA LAFAYETTE (3 - 1) at UAB (4 - 1) - 10/23/2020, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UAB is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
UAB is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
UAB is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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ILLINOIS (0 - 0) at WISCONSIN (0 - 0) - 10/23/2020, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ILLINOIS is 140-178 ATS (-55.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 140-178 ATS (-55.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 95-137 ATS (-55.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
WISCONSIN is 1-1 against the spread versus ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
WISCONSIN is 1-1 straight up against ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasonsComment
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NCAAF
Week 8
Trend Report
Friday, October 23
Tulsa @ South Florida
Tulsa
Tulsa is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tulsa's last 5 games
South Florida
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of South Florida's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of South Florida's last 9 games
Louisiana-Lafayette @ Alabama-Birmingham
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Lafayette is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Louisiana-Lafayette is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
Alabama-Birmingham
Alabama-Birmingham is 22-1 SU in its last 23 games at home
Alabama-Birmingham is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Louisiana-LafayetteComment
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NCAAF
Week 8
Friday’s games
Tulsa (1-1) @ South Florida (1-4)
— This is Tulsa’s first game in three weeks.
— Tulsa covered its first two games, losing 16-7 at Okla State, upsetting Central Florida 34-26 in Orlando.
— Golden Hurricane has 9 starters back on offense, 4 starters back on defense.
— Tulsa has 65 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Tulsa’s senior QB has started 25 games.
— Under Montgomery, Tulsa is 5-3 ATS as a road favorite.
— South Florida is 0-4 vs I-A teams; they lost 39-37 at Temple LW.
— Bulls allowed 40.8 ppg in their last four games.
— USF has 7 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— South Florida has 64 returning starts on the offensive line.
— USF’s soph QB has started 15 games.
— Bulls are 3-7 ATS in their last ten games as a home underdog.
— South Florida won last two series games, 25-24/27-20.
Louisiana (3-1) @ UAB (4-1)
— Louisiana won three of its first four games; their last three games were decided by a total of eight points.
— ULL won both its road games SU, at Iowa State/Georgia State.
— Under Napier, ULL is 10-4-1 ATS on the road.
— Ragin’ Cajuns have 7 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— ULL has 101 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Cajuns have a senior QB with 21 career starts.
— UAB won its last three games, giving up 12.3 ppg- they ran the ball for 214-217 yards their last two games.
— Blazers’ only loss was 31-14 at Miami.
— UAB has 9 starters back on offense, 9 starters back on defense.
— Blazers have 69 returning starts on the offensive line.
— UAB has used two QB’s this season.
— Since 2014, UAB is 13-2-2 vs spread at home.
— These teams haven’t met in the last five years.
Illinois (0-0) @ Wisconsin (0-0)
— Season opener for Illinois.
— Illini has 9 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Illinois has 126 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Illini has a senior QB with 18 career starts.
— Illinois is 12-20 ATS in its last 32 games as a road underdog.
— Season opener for Wisconsin.
— Badgers have 6 starters back on offense, 9 starters back on defense.
— Badgers have 50 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Wisconsin has a senior QB with 18 career starts.
— Since 2014, Wisconsin is 17-22-1 vs spread as a home favorite.
— Wisconsin won its last five games with Illinois, winning 49-20/48-3 in last two meetings played here.
— Home side covered last four series games.Comment
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Mike Wynn
Free Pick: UL Lafayette/UAB Over 50 PointsComment
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