Saturday 10/24/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Al Cimaglia: Hoosier Park Pick 4 Analysis

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October 24, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight, Hoosier Park will have 14 races set to go with the headliners being Breeder Crown eliminations. The 0.50 Pick 4 begins in Race 3 and that sequence will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 3

2-Colin N Down (15-1)-Looking for a price in this race and leaving the program chalk #4 off my ticket. A brisk pace seems likely. Could stay inside and roll late with a fast last quarter.
3-LA Rockin Sampson (15-1)-Similar to #2 and my guess is this 4-year-old might be headed down to Pompano soon. Looking for Plano to work and efficient trip and be there at the wire at long odds.
6-Gold Star Lambeau (5-1)-Started from the rail in last 2 starts and couldn't make up ground down the lane. Looking for a better effort by coming off cover rather than skimming the rail. If pace is hot Bates could be passing foes late.
9-Bay Rum (4-1)-This 7-year-old was in another zip code at the half last week and smoked the 2nd half in .54 to take a picture. Looking for #10 to leave and for a hot pace, which should mean Tetrick will be in the hunt at the wire.

Race 4

2-Cajun Lightning (3-1)-Winner of 2 straight at this class has made it look easy. Meets some new foes in the 5-6-7 but looks too good to not respect chances for a 3-peat.
6-Rockinbeach (5/2)-Steps up after a sharp overdue win from the 2nd tier after being off for 15 days. Team Wrenn can keep them good for a while so, will look for another big try.

Race 5

1-Cattlewash (5-1)-Competitive colt likes to race near the top of the stack and should be on the engine or in the pocket behind #8. Burke trainee looks like a major threat and could be a square price.
6-Capt Midnight (5/2)-Raced well at the Red Mile but was runner up to Party Girl Hill and Warrawee Vital and neither are part of this crew. Alanga trainee should be right there at the wire.
8-No Lou Zing (4-1)-Lou has an advantage over others as he won here in 149.2 on 9/25. Only #3 has a race on this surface. The top 5 finishers make the final, Lou could win this if dialed on high. But how hard will he be used from this post?

Race 6

5-Checks On The Way (7/2)-Seven-time winner in 10 starts at HoP fits with this group. Tetrick will be out and going and looks like a big threat.
7-Eyespywithmylileyen (3-1)-This mare is 10 for 11 this year and is 4 of 5 at HoP. Has come off the bench with 2 straight wins and best to not overlook here.
8-Miss You N (5/2)-Ohio invader comes off 2 sharp wins and has taken 4 pictures in last 6 starts. Has the gate speed to get the top and Dunn can put in play early on.

0.50 Pick 4

2,3,6,9/2,6/1,6,8/5,7,8
Total Bet=$36

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Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 10/24/20

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October 24, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-One Flew South; 4-Brickyard Ride

View Video Analysis

Forecast: Backyard Ride returned to winning form with strong main track score last month that produced a legitimate speed figure and a repeat of that performance today should be good enough for a repeat win. He’s capable on any surface so this return to grass shouldn’t be an issue. If ‘Ride is pressured into a hotter-than-expected early pace, the race-shape could benefit One Flew South, who makes his first start since returning from Meydan after a couple of unsuccessful performances in valuable handicaps last winter. The work tab at San Luis Rey Downs indicates the D. O’Neill-trained colt is fit enough and the presence of F. Prat in the saddle is another positive factor. A close third in his only prior outing over this course and distance, the son of Giant’s Causeway projects to settle into a second flight, stalking spot and have his chance from there.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 5-Secret Club; 6-Chipper

View Video Analysis

Forecast: Chipper failed to land a blow in a dull effort two-turning on grass vs. maidens two weeks ago but there’s a good chance he delivers his best stuff today with this shortening to a sprint and the return to the main track. The M. Glatt-trained gelding is comfortably drawn outside, retains F. Prat, and seems likely to settle into a stalking position and then have dead aim from the quarter pole home. Secret Club had a rough trip in his debut (stumbled at the start and raced wide) when and wound up fourth but he has every right to produce a forward move today with a clean journey. The son of Clubhouse Ride retains D. Van Dyke, shows a solid five furlong drill six days ago and probably has more upside than some of the other more exposed entrants. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:01 PT Grade: C+
Use: 3-Tiz Vicious; 4-Prince Magician

View Video Analysis

Forecast: This six-runner maiden $50,000 claiming extended sprint should be treated with a bit of caution. We’ll use two in our rolling exotics but not with a great deal of confidence. Prince Magician, away since last November, returns in a soft spot for H. Palma (solid stats with layoffs) and earned a speed figure two races back when second in a maiden special weight sprint over this main track that would easily be good enough to win. The work tab looks promising, so let’s put the son of Cairo Prince on top and hope he can fire his best shot off the bench. Tiz Vicious was last of nine, beaten 16 lengths, in his only prior outing in June in a mile grass affair vs. straight maidens. However, he returns with F. Prat and a series of quick workouts that really catches the eye, so we anticipate that the son of Violence will improve a bunch in a weak affair.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:34 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Fierce for Sul; 4- La V.; 6-Superstition

View Video Analysis

Forecast: Superstition retuned off a long layoff for her second career start and performed admirably when a close second sprinting on grass at Del Mar last month. The R. Mandella barn is strong (21%) with the second-off-a-layoff statistic so we’re expecting a forward move from the daughter of Ghostzapper. From her outside draw she can pop and go or stalk and pounce under F. Prat. Fierce for Sul has only one option from the rail – bust out and make the running – but she strikes us as being a tad suspect under pressure in the final furlong. This will be her third career start and her speed figure dropped eight points between her first and second outing, not a good sign. If she’s going to develop into a decent sort she’ll have to show it today. La V. tries grass and adds blinkers for the first time and might be better than her first two races indicate. She’s worth including on a ticket or two as a back-up or a saver.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:03 PT Grade: C+
Use: 2-Potantico; 5-Order and Law

View Video Analysis

Forecast: This second-level allowance main track middle distance event drew a field of only five, and it’s a noticeably weak event with nothing to trust. Order and Law seems the logical top pick in a race that projects to have soft early splits. He was a gate-to-wire grass winner two runs back but has been successful over this main track in the past, so we suspect the surface switch won’t be an issue. The concern is inconsistency; the V. Cerin-trained colt has finished off the board in 15 of 22 lifetime starts. His uncoupled stable mate, Potantico, is winless in five previous races over the local dirt strip and was virtually eased in the 12-furlong Tokyo City S.-G3 in his most recent outing. He’s facing a considerably easier group today, gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy A. Centeno, and shortens to a middle distance, so the Gemologist gelding seems likely to return to good form. These are the two we’ll be including in our rolling exotics but if you feel the need to spread deeper or even buy the race, go right ahead.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:37 PT Grade: B+
Use: 4-Tripoli; 7-Three Ay Em

View Video Analysis

Forecast: Tripoli is lightly-raced and improving with each outing, so we’ll go with the J. Sadler-trained colt on top in this first-level allowance nine furlong grass event. The son of Kitten’s Joy wound up third in a similar affair at Del Mar behind Scarto, who returned to finish an excellent second in the Twilight Derby-G2 last weekend, and a repeat of that effort today should be good enough. Additionally, recent workouts have been sharp, so we’re actually anticipating a career top performance. Three Ay Em is worth including on your ticket as well. A sharp winner when claimed for $25,000 two runs back, the E. Truman-trained colt ran equally well when a rallying third vs. similar over the local lawn last month while giving every indication that he’ll be just as effective if not more so at this longer distance. The switch to U. Rispoli is significant, so we’ll make this son of New Year’s Day a strong contender and a “must use.”
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RACE 7: Post: 4:07 PT Grade: B
Single: 6-Magnolia’s Hope

View Video Analysis

Forecast: Magnolia’s Hope gets what appears to be an easy chance to regain her winning form in this restricted (nw-2) $25,000 extended sprint for fillies and mares. A repeat of her maiden claiming win two races back – she popped the gate and was the controlling speed throughout – will be more than good enough to win and with a projected favorable pace flow the daughter of Ministers Wild Cat can settle off La Rose Drive (if that one is gunned from the rail) or take the initiative and establish the running. Reunited with “win rider” R. Gonzalez and comfortably drawn outside, the J. Wong-trained mare can be used in the win pool and as a rolling exotic single.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:37 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Jo Jo Air; 5-Magic At Midnight

View Video Analysis

Forecast: Magic At Midnight is unbeaten in four starts but gets her stiffest test yet in this year’s edition of the Senator Ken Maddy S.-G3 for fillies and mares over five and one-half furlongs on turf. Never headed in each of her victories that includes an impressive grass sprint score at Del Mar two runs back, the daughter of Midnight Lute clearly is the controlling speed on paper and will be difficult to run down if she can shake loose early without undue pressure. Also, she continues to impress in the a.m. for M. Glatt and is fast enough on pure numbers to handle the class hike, so we’ll put her on top while also giving some consideration to Jo Jo Air, the winner of the Daisycutter Handicap at Del Mar when she shipped West last July. The W. Ward-trained daughter of Scat Daddy has a good stalking style and should have Magic At Midnight within sight at the head of the lane and then have her chance to catch the leader in the final stages.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:07 PT Grade: B+ (Leg 1 of the Golden Hour Pick-4
Use: 1-Classier; 6-North Pole

View Video Analysis

Forecast: In his debut at Del Mar in August North Pole finished a promising second to Wyfire, who was stakes-placed in his next start, so with any type of forward move today the S. Callaghan-trained colt should be able to earn his diploma in this fairly decent maiden special weight extended sprint for 2-year-olds. A son of Pioneerof the Nile which brought in excess of $1 million as a yearling, this well-regarded colt shows a healthy series of drills since raced, retains F. Prat, and should get nothing but better as the distances increase. He’s likely to be a short-priced single on many tickets. Classier is a first-timer from the B. Baffert barn with plenty of ability but must leave from the rail. He’s displayed some greenness in the morning, and probably isn’t a quick type, so we’re really looking at the son of Empire Maker as a “down the road” sort. We’ll use him on a ticket or two as a back-up while reserving the main push for North Pole.
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GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 2 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 9: Post 5:22 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Ready for a Fight; 4-Flicflac

Forecast: Ready for a Fight is a lightly-raced and progressing gelding with rising speed figures and room for further development. With a break in the weights with the shift to bug rider S. Rivera, the son of Boisterous should settle into a pace-stalking, ground-saving position from the rail and then have every opportunity to produce a winning late kick. Most recently a close second while just failing to tag the leaders with a strong wide kick, he’s back in 15 days for a high-percentage outfit and will offer value at or near his morning line of 4-1. Flicflac is racing in good from and should fire another big shot after rallying to be a sharp runner-up with a career top speed figure in a similar first-level allowance dash three weeks ago. The T. Bellasis-trained colt lacks good positional speed but with clear sailing should be heard from in the final furlong. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our Golden Hour Pick-4.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:37 PT Grade: B- (Leg 3 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 8-Shadow Sphinx; 9-Mithqaal

View Video Analysis

Forecast: The finale is a $25,000 claimer over a mile on grass and looks like a replay of a $32,000 seller earlier this month in which Shadow Sphinx and Mithqaal finished one-two over this course and distance. They meet again and both should run similarly well, with ‘Sphinx getting top billing after overcoming some traffic trouble at the head of the lane to prevail as best and record his third local win from six starts. The class drop off a victory never is a healthy sign, but if the R. Baltas-trained gelding has at least one good one left he’ll be hard to deny once again. Mithqaal is most effective on the lead and could easily inherit the role as the controlling speed given the projected pace flow. The veteran gelding has nine career victories and is worth including on your rolling exotic ticket.
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GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 4 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 9: Post 5:52 PT Grade: C+
Use: 2-Argosy Fleet; 3-Potente Alba; 9-Malibu Max

Forecast: Here’s a messy affair with several possibilities; you probably should include as many as your budget allows. We’ll try to get by using just three. Potente Alba drops again in class after a couple of dull outings but could be capable of snapping back at this level. A four-time winner over the local all-weather track, the veteran gelding has winning conditions and the type of early speed that should allow him to fold into an ideal stalking position. He’s had three nice drills since last race and should be set for a good try. Argosy Fleet was claimed for $16,000 in August but hasn’t shown much in a pair of subsequent outings for the high-percentage J. Martin barn. He’s never raced this cheaply and is more than good enough to win at this $8,000 level, so we’ll toss him in. Malibu Max should have clear sailing outside and will be heard from late if he can manage to avoid a wide trip. On pure numbers he’s right there with these and remains above his claim level in a sign of confidence.
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

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Belmont Park - Race #3

#4 Breadman	Terranova charge was bet like a good thing on debut and didn't disappoint, and while it was on turf, he's bred to love the main, and should only improve off that debut; call right back.
#2 Hold the Salsa	Local stakes winner was pulling clear late going 7Fs, so the mile trip should be a plus, though he has no margin for error, and the pick looks like a real runner; still, looms plenty scary.
#3 Masked Marauder	Maiden sped off and was 2nd to the pick, but the dirt debut 3rd was a lot better, and faster too, and he'll be leading, though lasting won't be easy; know him early, not sure about late.
Race Summary	You won't get rich on the 4 but that 3-1 ML seems like enough value on a runner that looks like he's going places, so play him to win and place, and especially in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since there are more than a few ways the public will go here, which means a win will knock out a lot of tickets in both sequences.

Belmont Park - Race #6

#6 Lucky Move	Versatile sort has been facing eons better of late, while holding her own too, so this is a seismic class drop, and that might be enough to overcome what could be a bit of a pace disadvantage if the chalk clears early; love her chances in here.
#5 Critical Value	Stalker was a good 3rd in an open allowance last time, and if she improves just a smidge she'd be in the mix with these, so from close range, at what should be a square price, you could do a lot worse than looking her way; looms very large.
#2 Ratajkowski	ML favorite also looks like a Lone F, and mid-summer that would have made her a cinch here, but the Spa run was awful, so sure, she can still run off here, but there are some serious concerns, at false odds as well; making her prove it.
Race Summary	That 3-1 ML on the pick seems like plenty of risk-reward, and with Jose Ortiz riding he'll put this miss in the game a bit more early too, which will keep her in closer tabs to the 2, so play her aggressively to win and place, while getting some added value by keying her in the exotics, as she finally gets to play with her own kind, and that may be all it takes.

Belmont Park - Race #9

#5 Prairie Fire	Stalker has really picked up her game in her last two when blinkers were added, catches a field with plenty of early pace, and could get ignored at the windows too; upset special.
#9 Timely Tradition	Well-traveled miss has won 4-of-5 and is another with a style that will have her just a bit off the pace, which looks like the right kind of trip you want to pull here; very playable.
#1 Newly Minter	The chalk is an NYB star and wins this with her best, but the rail is a worry, as is all the speed to her outside, and the win last time was a regression on paper as well; mixed signals.
Race Summary	The price and race flow will both be right with the 5, who seems to have really come into her own in her last two since the equipment change, so play her in all the slots, and especially the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since this looks like a wide open race, and she might be the right fresh new face to take advantage.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Santa Anita - Race #2

#3 Curry	Chased out wide in that debut last year, and he appears to be working forwardly for this comeback run. First-time gelding goes for a barn that has won with this layoff type before.
#6 Chipper	Isolate the dirt sprints and his form is pretty tough here, but I get the feeling the price might get a bit shorter than it should.
#2 Zero Down	Tough read -- he brings big efforts from time to time, but he's also really flat sometimes for no apparent reason. Too tough to trust.
Race Summary	Curry might be sitting on a big race, and it's encouraging that he comes back protected as it would have been easy to try and get away with one for $50,000 or something similar off the long layoff.

Santa Anita - Race #4

#5 Vegas Palm	On one hand, she's an 11-start maiden, but on the other she brings really good turf sprint form to this. She may have been left on hold a bit too long nearing the top of the lane last out, and the pace figures to be honest.
#6 Superstition	Guessing that comeback effort will prove useful, and she gets the right kind of draw to prompt the splits in this second start off the bench.
#1 Fierce for Sul	She's very fast, but I'm not sure the front end is going to be a particularly hospitable place, especially for the filly drawn on the fence.
Race Summary	Vegas Palm has a big claim on this one at what should be a playable price. She has a small excuse for her last one, and she projects to get a really nice race shape to kick into in the lane.

Santa Anita - Race #5

#4 Unbroken Star	Thinking this one might be sitting on a bounce-back effort after three modest Del Mar efforts. His best career races have come going long locally, and he could wake up quickly today.
#2 Potantico	They tried him in graded company going 12 furlongs last time, and it didn't pan out at all. He'll cut back while moving back in with friendlier competition.
#5 Order and Law	Quick enough to find the front if they want it, but his dirt races are somewhat spotty at times, and I wouldn't want a short price on this guy.
Race Summary	Unbroken Star does good work over the local footing, and he should offer a playable number in this short field.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1

#1 REVOLT	Four deep in outer flow, rallied too wide and too late, draws rail.
#9 ECLAT DE RIRE	First or second in 9 of 11 starts, post the concern.
#6 THE WILD CARD	Two front-end victories and a near miss since September.
Race Summary	Revolt rallied 7-wide in the stretch but couldn’t reach in his bid for three wins in a row. He moves from the second tier to the rail and is the one to beat as a result. Play 1-6 and 1-9 exactas.

Meadowlands - Race #3

#2 KOTARE YARRA N	Quick brush to lead, wilted in lane in 1:51.4, can notch 22nd win.
#6 EDGE OF ETERNITY	Ran away from the favorite through :56.1 back half at Harrah’s Philadelphia.
#7 ALEXA SKYE	Sustained second-over rally to finish third from similar starting spot.
Race Summary	Kotare Yarra N was flushed out of third, brushed to the lead and tired in the stretch in a fast race. She meets several of the same rivals tonight and can win with a well-timed bid. Play 2-6 and 2-7 exactas.

Hoosier Park - Race #5

#1 CATTLEWASH	Steady progress as 3yo produced monster win two back.
#6 CAPT MIDNIGHT	Broke single-file lineup in third quarter, second to 13-for-13 rival.
#3 ALLYWAG HANOVER	Sat perfect trip off cover, looked like winner but rail runner prevailed.
Race Summary	Cattlewash blazed a 1:46.4 mile two starts back at a one-mile oval, then chased North America’s top-ranked horse from post 9 before fading on an ‘off’ track last week. He will need his A-game in this Breeders Crown elimination, but the 5-1 morning line makes it worth a bet.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

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Gulfstream Park West - Race #7

#3 Charlie the Greek	Dropped too far back last time and can get back to good form in this one; makes his first off the claim by the Walder stable.
#5 Just Kidding	Was a non-threatening third in a stakes race last time and his best run can make him a big player; stepped out of lower claiming races three back and now fits with these.
#1 No Getting Over Me	Was competitive at this year earlier in the year at Gulfstream, tried the G3 Indiana Derby to no avail and ran evenly in his latest; makes his first for Barboza barn.
Race Summary	Charlie the Greek can stay close to any pace and and has been claimed four times this year, most recently by the Walder stable. Gets Paco Lopez and can be in the mix throughout.

Gulfstream Park West - Race #8

#3 Antigone	Has had some good races on turf but has been on dirt most recently; won a sprint two back and comes in off a third, when she tracked a slow pace. Can rise to the occasion here.
#2 Act Like Artie	Put together her best effort last time as she drops to maiden claiming and ran to an easy win; was claimed by Darien Rodriguez stable and be a contender right back.
#5 La Rusia	Ran on well for second last time out will be tough if she runs back to that one.
Race Summary	Antigone had a couple second-place finished on turf at Del Mar last year and can be tough to beat on either surface.

Gulfstream Park West - Race #9

#2 Queen Domina	Was an easy winner in her only start, and the Dominus filly certainly looks ready to take on better.
#1 Wholebodemeister	Faltered in the Ellis Debutante last time just off a front-running score at Gulfstream; capable of a big effort under these conditions.
#3 Little Nesso	Was up in time for a starter win last time and has won two of her last three; has a good closing move and could be around late if the pace is fast and the front runners weaken.
Race Summary	Queen Domina ran off to an easy win in her only start and looks capable of success at this level.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price

Oct 24 '20, 10:00 AM in 1h
Soccer | Carlisle United vs Grimsby Town
Play on: Grimsby Town +235 at YouWager

1* Free Pick on Grimsby Town +235

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Janus

Oct 24 '20, 12:00 PM in 3h
Soccer | Cork City FC vs Sligo Rovers
Play on: Sligo Rovers -132 at 1BetVegas

1* Free Sharp Play on Sligo Rovers -132

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Leonard

Oct 24 '20, 12:00 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Kansas vs Kansas State
Play on: Kansas State -19½ -110 at William Hill

360 Kansas at Kansas State
The Jayhawks won three games before the big signing of Les Miles in Lawrence. In his first season here the team won the same number of games. Money well spent from the Kansas athletic staff. Oh, did we mention that after he left LSU the Tigers won 34 of 41 games and an NCAA Championship? The Jayhawks are 0-4 this year being outscored by 109 points in those games.
Kansas State has owned this series, winning the past 11 meetings. Victories by 28, 4, 10, 15 and 31 points the past five years. Chris Klieman is a head coach on the rise after posting an 8-5 record a year ago, and 3-1 this season. That includes three straight outright upset victories. Look for the streak to continue.
PLAY KANSAS STATE

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alex Smart

Oct 24 '20, 12:00 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Syracuse vs Clemson
Play on: Syracuse +46½ -110 at William Hill

Hey dont get me wrong with this selection on Syracuse getting points. The Orange are bad and play with little emotion or concentration, but from a mathematical perspective we have some slight value with the underdog. It must be noted that the Cuse have covered 2 of their L/3 visits to Death Valley. Also when considering Tigers HC Swinney is a logistics and tactical specialist ( meaning he knows how to preserve and maintain the health and energy of his team during a season) . This mind set from one of football top coaches gives credence to us seeing him doing just enough here to get the W as bigger fish are on deck.

Babers is 9-2 ATS in road games after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of SYRACUSE.

CFB Home favorites of 31.5 or more points (CLEMSON) - excellent punt return team, more than 12 yards per return are 7-30 L/10 seasons for go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Syracuse Orange to cover

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Lundin

Oct 24 '20, 12:00 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Temple vs Memphis
Play on: Memphis -13½ -109 at pinnacle

Temple vs. Memphis Free Pick October 24, 2020
The Tigers are asked to cover two touchdowns in this matchup with the Temple Owls, and I think Memphis will come through with a blowout win.
The Owls have failed to cover the spread in each of their first two games of the season and won by just a pair of points as a 14-point favorite over USF last week. They rank 14th in the nation for total defense, but here they'll face an explosive Memphis offense that just put up 700+ yards in a come-from-behind upset victory over Central Florida last week.
Tigers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game and 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 home games.
Free pick on Memphis Tigers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Matt Fargo

Oct 24 '20, 1:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-F | Southern Miss vs Liberty
Play on: Liberty -13 -110 at William Hill

Liberty is off to a 5-0 start to the season, its best since joining the FBS. The Flames have won seven straight games overall and eight straight home contests at Williams Stadium. They are led by a stout defense as they are ranked No. 4 in total defense and No. 10 in scoring defense. The Flames have recorded seven takeaways in the last three games, leading to 38 points.Southern Mississippi is playing for the first time in three weeks, following COVID-19 related postponements of its last two games (vs. Florida Atlantic and UTEP). The Golden Eagles are 1-3 with the lone win coming against lowly North Texas and that is a distant memory. The Southern Mississippi coaching situation is a mess as Scott Walden tested positive earlier this week and will not make the trip. He was named interim head coach in September after Jay Hopson resigned from the post just one game into the 2020 season. Tim Billings will lead the team against the Flames, and he will be dealing with a team that has not had a full component of players because of the virus. Here, we play against road teams outscored by opponents by 10 or more ppg, after two straight games where 70 total points or more were scored. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Play (384) Liberty Flames

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB public betting, line movement October 24
Patrick Everson

Julio Urias takes the ball in Game 4 for the Dodgers, who look to take a commanding 3-1 World Series lead over the Rays on Saturday. The SuperBook opened Los Angeles a -160 favorite.

MLB betting odds are on the board and getting attention for Saturday night’s Game 4 of the World Series at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. The Los Angeles Dodgers can put themselves very much in the driver’s seat with a victory over the Tampa Bay Rays.

The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for Saturday’s Game 4 and the updated World Series odds.

MLB line movement

Los Angeles plated five runs over the first four innings and got a solid six innings from starter Walker Buehler to beat Tampa Bay 6-2 in Game 3 Friday night. The Dodgers have a 2-1 lead in the best-of-seven series, heading into an 8:08 p.m. ET Game 4.

The SuperBook opened Saturday’s contest at Dodgers -160/Rays +140, with a total of 8 (Over -120). There was no movement on the moneyline or the total Friday night.

MLB public betting

The consensus is often a good indicator of where the public is, and in a limited sample late Friday night, it was on Los Angeles. The Dodgers were attracting 65 percent of early picks, and Over 8 was landing 79 percent of early picks.

Odds to win the World Series

With the early back-and-forth game results, the price to win the World Series has also swung back and forth. Prior to Game 1, The SuperBook had the Dodgers -210 and the Rays +180. After L.A.’s Game 1 win, the price shifted to Dodgers -410/Rays +340, and when Tampa took Game 2, it moved to Dodgers -200/Rays +175.

Now, with the Dodgers up 2-1, The SuperBook has Los Angeles out to -500, with Tampa Bay +400. The house is rooting hard for the Rays.

“The Rays are awesome for us,” SuperBook executive director John Murray said prior to Game 1. “We’re a small loser to the Dodgers.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Dunkel

Saturday, October 24

LA Dodgers @ Tampa Bay

Game 957-958
October 24, 2020 @ 8:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Dodgers
(Urias) 18.988
Tampa Bay
(Yarbrough) 16.147
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 3
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-170
8
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-170); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Saturday, October 24

World Series

Tampa Bay vs Los Angeles (LA leads 2-1) (@ Arlington)

Bullpen game
— Tampa Bay lost five of its last seven games.
— Rays are 50-27 this season.
— Under is 8-4 in their last 12 games.
— Tampa Bay lost its only previous World Series, in 2008.

Last four Urias appearances totaled 16 innings, so this is likely a bullpen game, unless Urias is brilliant.
— Dodgers are 54-21 this year; they’ve won five of last six games.
— Dodgers are in playoffs for the 8th year in a row.
— LA is 33-12 away from home this season.
— Over is 7-2 in their last eight games.
— Dodgers haven’t won World Series since 1988; they lost World Series in 2017-18.