Monday 10/26/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-26-2020, 04:57 AM

Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

October 26, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Woodbine Mohawk Park will start the week with an 11-race card. The 0.20 Late Pick 4 begins in Race 8 and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 8

2-Grandma Heidi (5/2)-This is a spot to shine for Heidi after just missing versus Free Willy Hanover in last. McNair can get on the engine and she has beaten better here. A major player, who should be bet hard.
5-On The Ropes (8-1)-Beat this kind before back on 7/28 and has been facing tougher. Drury is back and that should help plus leads the field with 6 wins in 2020. Could be sitting right behind #2 at a more generous price.

Race 9

3-P L Jill (3-1)-Was a game winner from the 8 hole at this class on 9/28 and then had an even try last time from post 9. Should make the most of the post relief and best to not overlook.
5-Perfetto (7/2)-Winner of 2 straight has been sharp, will probably look to get the point and control things. If that plan happens without much push back it could be picture time again.
6-Hey Livvy (8/5)-Here's the fastest mare and the best horse this year who did sizzle the 2nd half in 53.2 in last. She is the winner with her best shot and the short field should help. Doesn't feel like a single to me but many will probably use her alone.

Race 10

2-East End (5/2)-Often in the hunt but is only 3-31 this year. Drops to a spot to shine and is a major threat with a top try and a good steer.
6-Dreamfair Moxy (4-1)-Beat cheaper then had a dull effort versus better than this. This is a scattered bunch and P L Jackson was sharp last week so will use here and if in striking range could close fastest of all.
7-Mc Pat (8-1)-Only 1-25 in 2020 but Roy steers here and has been tossing hints. Came the back half in 54.1 and should be a price.
10-American Virgin (6-1)-Dropped to this level on 10/19 and had the rail. This 8-year-old isn't quick off the gate, broke 5th and rallied late with a 27.1 last quarter. From the 2nd tier may follow #2 at the start and get a decent early seat.

Race 11

2-Teddys Littleangel (5-1)-Got on the engine and came 2nd on 10/16. Now steps up, could be overlooked and will use. Last start, came after being off since 9/28 and was scratched sick. Should be put in play early and there is not much gate speed in this field.
6-B Yoyo (7/2)-Stayed inside last week and came on late. Comes right back in a week and will look for a more aggressive steer. 1-21 record this year doesn't bode well but 10-year-old can beat this crew if dialed on high.
8-Wild And Crazy Guy (6-1)-Steps up after taking the long way around in last and did keep coming but couldn't make up much ground. Filion takes a spin and that's a plus, using in a race with a suspect field.

0.20 Late Pick 4

2,5/3,5,6/2,6,7,10/2,6,8
Total Bet=$14.40

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-26-2020, 05:35 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Finger Lakes - Race #1

#2 Thank You	Invader has been doing the Tapeta, then was at Tampa, but his recent runs here were best, and he'll get some pace to rally into; love his chances here.
#7 Count on America	Stalker just missed at the level, should be sitting just off what looks to be a speed duel, and will be tough, though this wide draw won't help; second-best.
#4 Oxley Gap	Odd ML favorite just got beat up by the 7 and has speed to his outside, so while his best makes him a big threat, it's unlikely it's coming here; not seeing it.
Race Summary	That 5-1 ML seems like a gift on the 2, but even 5-2 seems fair, as not only does he get the right race flow, but he gets some class relief too, so play him aggressively to win and place, while getting some added value by keying him to kick off the early Pk4, as he looks primed in his return home.

Finger Lakes - Race #5

#1a Twice for Honey	Stiff class dropper meets a wretched crew for the level, drew well, and looks way too tough for these; imposing.
#7 Sydney Sweetie	Logical sort has been in good form and should be close early, but the pick has too much firepower; the main danger.
#4 Colonial Lass	Stalker didn't fire from a wide draw behind the 7 but has some decent form, which can get a piece; exotics appeal.
Race Summary	That 3-1 on the pick can't hold, but if she runs and you can get 8-5, make an aggressive win bet, though her real value comes in the Pk5, and to kick off the late Pk4 as well, as she has this meek field over a barrel.

Finger Lakes - Race #7

#6 Blue Gator	Newcomer impressed on debut at Belmont, drew the perfect outside attack post, and meets an overbet favorite who drew poorly, and has no margin for error; look out.
#1 Thin White Duke	Stiff ML favorite ha won two straight stakes, the last one here, but this post is a bit dicey, plus he's not much faster than the pick, who has way more upside; trying to beat.
#5 Our Man Mike	Price player made first run and got in front of the 1 last time then got reeled in, but that was his first against winners, so he's got some room to improve; hardly impossible.
Race Summary	You won't get rich on the 6 but they will bet the 1 hard, so just maybe that 3-1 ML sticks, which would warrant a win and place bet, though his real value comes in the Pk5, and late Pk4 as well, as budget players will be singling the chalk, which means a win by 'Gator would knock a lot of tickets out, and potentially play longer than his tote odds would suggest.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-26-2020, 05:36 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mountaineer - Race #3

#4 Halaboutthat	The form hasn't been much to write home about, but he'll try the local company for the first time here and isn't meeting much while doing it.
#9 Lafleur	Cuts back on the drop tonight, and his form stamps him as one of the ones, even if he's impossible to trust on top in this 29th lifetime start.
#6 Grito de Pablito	Maybe he didn't really care for the off going last time out when chasing a runaway winner, but there isn't really anything in the form to get excited about, and the price probably isn't going to be much.
Race Summary	Halaboutthat has never been close, but he'll test his efforts with the local group for the first time tonight and can handle these with any improvement.

Mountaineer - Race #7

#8 Gatto Rosso	Reliable type doesn't win often, holding just a 1-for-25 career slate, but he's likely overlooked here and would benefit if the logical players knocked heads early.
#5 Fibertown	Rolled a state-bred group last time out, and he should be in line for another really good trip near the top. The one to beat.
#4 In the Game	He broke his maiden easily in the local debut last time out, and a win right back against this kind of company would be no surprise.
Race Summary	Gatto Rosso will need the pace players to hook up if he's going to win this, but he has pretty consistent finishing form with cheaper and should offer a fair price.

Mountaineer - Race #8

#10 Flat Out Smokin	She ran into some easy winners -- 10 lengths and 15 lengths -- in her two most recent dirt starts, and she would seem plenty interesting at anything like the 10/1 ML price.
#3 Itsallaboutmememe	Her best stuff keeps her in the mix, and her form is a bit clouded with turf and sprint races. The dirt routes stack up very nicely here.
#9 Legendarys First	Reliable finisher handles just about any footing and any trip, and while she wouldn't be any surprise, she is no guarantee to back up the big effort.
Race Summary	Flat Out Smokin is a better fit here than it looks, and she should offer a playable number in a competitive spot.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-26-2020, 05:37 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Indiana Grand - Race #2

#1 Bayou Cat	Has some into his own with widening victories in his last two, the first at six furlongs and the most recent at a mile. He's content in following leaders early and is responsive when called upon with his move. Can get another here.
#6 Mai Tai's Gem	Was second in a sakes race last time and can battle throughout. Has the class advantage and seeks his win since last November.
#8 Flatoutjustice	Is worth a look for those looking for trifecta and superfecta filler. He ran poorly on the grass last time, but he was fifth going short two back and tends to improve with distance.
Race Summary	Bayou Cat was razor sharp in his last two, steps up in conditions; it will be difficult to outfinish him.

Indiana Grand - Race #7

#2 Breakers Point	A decent flyer to take coming off an easy win going long on turf; he turns back in distance and moves to the main track. Has shown speed going long, which could translate into coming off the pace going short. Fits with this group and could be overlooked despite trainer Ortiz hitting at 26 percent.
#5 White Wolf	Ran an even third in a decent race last out; Bowen stays aboard and this one likely will be in the mix at the end.
#6 Man He Can	Took him 17 races to find the winner's circle and has now won two straight; in from Belterra and another win would not be a great surprise.
Race Summary	Breakers Point is in good form and can keep in range in this sprint; recent route races should help him in the closing yards of this one.

Indiana Grand - Race #9

#10 Merocketman	Lacked a late kick in his last two and beat Wing and Wheel in a photo three races back; likely will be in the mix throughout.
#9 Wing and Wheel	Was second in his last two, the latest at a higher level; has been on the board in his last five and usually missed it up well with claimers.
#1 Love That Surprise	Can benefit from a ground-saving trip and likely will show plenty of speed; can get a good trip and looms as a major player.
Race Summary	Merocketman seeks his first win since last year and drops to the lowest level of his career; fits with these and can have a strong finish.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-26-2020, 08:01 AM

Cappers Access

(Mon) NFL Bears +6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-26-2020, 10:46 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for ZIA

ZIA - Race 5	$1 Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / 3rd Leg Pick 3 / 4th Leg Pick 4
Maiden Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3-5 • CR: 62 • Purse: $5,000 • Post: 1:48P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000. NEW MEXICO BRED CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. BINGHAM'S FLASH is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BRICKBAT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. ESTEEMED: Horse has run a Good Race w ithin the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SUBTLE RIDE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
6	BRICKBAT	5/2	7/2
1	ESTEEMED	2/1	6/1
3	BINGHAM'S FLASH	10/1	6/1
4	SUBTLE RIDE	9/2	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	BINGHAM'S FLASH	3	10/1	Front-runner	55	42	68.3	26.5	17.5
2	TOSS THE FLAG	2	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	58.8	19.0	10.0
6	BRICKBAT	6	5/2	Trailer	63	58	55.0	68.3	64.8
4	SUBTLE RIDE	4	9/2	Trailer	59	49	51.4	50.6	46.1
1	ESTEEMED	1	2/1	Alternator/Trailer	62	53	51.4	53.4	48.9
5	PAIN FOR GAIN	5	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	30.3	10.4	0.0
7	SIXTH GEAR	7	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	47	31	25.4	25.4	13.4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-26-2020, 10:47 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Grants Pass

Grants Pass - Race 7	$2 WPS / $1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta .50 Superfecta $1 Pick 4 (Races 7-8-9-10)
Maiden Claiming $8,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 51 • Purse: $5,500 • Post: 7:00P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * PAPA SAID YA: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. COACH'S VALENTINE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. HER ROYAL DUCHES S: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SAN JUAN STORM: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
8	PAPA SAID YA	9/2	4/1
1	COACH'S VALENTINE	7/2	6/1
3	HER ROYAL DUCHESS	4/1	7/1
2	SAN JUAN STORM	5/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
10	CLONGIFFEN	10	8/1	Front-runner	60	30	66.4	34.2	22.2
8	PAPA SAID YA	8	9/2	Front-runner	61	48	64.4	44.4	40.4
3	HER ROYAL DUCHESS	3	4/1	Front-runner	50	51	0.0	44.7	38.7
5	MY GIRL COCO	5	10/1	Front-runner	51	38	0.0	20.2	7.2
1	COACH'S VALENTINE	1	7/2	Stalker	52	44	70.0	41.2	36.2
2	SAN JUAN STORM	2	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	56	51	39.7	36.2	27.2
7	OAKSTONE	7	8/1	Trailer	0	0	0.0	32.0	18.5
6	MISSY PARKER	6	12/1	Alternator/Trailer	52	34	0.0	35.4	21.9
4	PURELY	4	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	52	33	0.0	24.6	12.1

Unknown Running Style: I'M TO BLAME (10/1) [Jockey: Aguilar Daniel - Trainer: Gilmour Jim].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-26-2020, 10:48 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #6 - Post: 3:04pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $27,500 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#8 DOCSLUCKYCAT (ML=3/1)
#1A HAKMAN (ML=8/5)

DOCSLUCKYCAT - Stalking speed. My partners and I like this thoroughbred. This thoroughbred could be tough today, especially since Rivera rode last out and now should be plenty familiar with this one. I'll bet that this gelding even surprised his connections when he made his initial bow on Oct 5th and finished second. HAKMAN - Has unearthed a good spot this time around.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 VICTORY DIVISION (ML=8/5), #7 TO WIN (ML=5/1), #6 SUGAR MAC (ML=6/1),

VICTORY DIVISION - The speed figure last time out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's contest. Mark this horse as a questionable challenger. TO WIN - This entrant didn't go to the lead and didn't make up any ground in the stretch last time he ran. Tough to like the downward moving flow (59/50/38) of speed figs. SUGAR MAC - This racer will likely be way back as this group crosses the finish.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #8 DOCSLUCKYCAT on the win end if we get at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	8 with 1 with [2,4,6] Total Cost: $3
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-26-2020, 10:49 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $26500 Class Rating: 50

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 PAZZION 7/2
# 4 THROWING STONES 3/1
# 3 DELAWARE DESTINY 5/1

PAZZION has a solid shot to take this race. Englehart makes a blinkers change (going on today), looking for better results. No strangers to the winner's circle, Englehart and Worrie ought to have this filly breaking away from the field. She should have a good showing versus this less demanding group. THROWING STONES - Gomez has a winning percentage of 17 over the last 30 days. Barrow has her trained solidly to break speedily out of the gate. DELAWARE DESTINY - The drastic drop in class can only help this entrant this time out. Don't let this filly slip past you. Could score at big odds.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-26-2020, 10:51 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Indiana Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 81

FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES IN 2020 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 26 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 WING AND WHEEL 8/5
# 3 PASS THE BISCUITS 6/1
# 7 CLOSE THE CASE 5/1

I've got to go with WING AND WHEEL. Has to be given consideration based on the very strong speed figure earned in the last contest. Strong jock and handler combo winning 16 percent of their races working together. Wagerers using horses with this jock and trainer duo have done soundly lately. PASS THE BISCUITS - Looks formidable against this field and will probably be one of the leaders. Has to be given a shot - I like the figures from the last race. CLOSE THE CASE - Ought to be carefully examined - I like the figs from the last contest.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-26-2020, 10:54 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Parx Racing - Race #4 - Post: 2:16pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#8 KING'S HOUSE (ML=8/1)
#2 MONTELEONE (ML=3/1)
#3 HIDE THE CANDY (ML=5/1)

KING'S HOUSE - This gelding likes to be near the lead. Today's clash is a shorter distance and should enhance his chances of winning. Looked very good in last race at Parx Racing. A quick turnaround means Farro thinks he can do it again. MONTELEONE - This jockey/trainer duo has been producing a very positive ROI, right at +208. This horse coming off a nice performance in the last month or so is a win candidate in my humble opinion. HIDE THE CANDY - This colt's last race was back on Feb 28th but I do believe he can run a good one coming off a layoff. This rider/conditioner duo has been producing a very favorable ROI, right at +172. A repeat of that latest performance on February 28th where he garnered a speed figure of 86 looks good enough to prove victorious in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 THESE BLUES (ML=7/2), #7 MOE TROUBLE (ML=9/2), #6 BRIO MAN (ML=6/1),

THESE BLUES - Can't bet on this questionable contender in today's sprint of 5 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a sprint race recently. Finished fourth last out. Would have to improve to be on the board in today's race. This gelding notched a speed rating in his last event which probably isn't good enough in today's race. MOE TROUBLE - No success for this horse in a short distance race over the last two months tells me that this horse is in a formidable circumstance difficult to bet on any animal to turn things around if there is no value to taking the risk. BRIO MAN - Hard to put your dough on the win end of any entrant that finishes second and third as frequently as this participant does.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - KING'S HOUSE - Racing pattern would suggest this horse is in good shape for today's race. Should perform well right here.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #8 KING'S HOUSE on top if we're getting at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-26-2020, 12:24 PM

Paul Leiner

Soccer & Horse Pick 10/26

Nice one yesterday as top play hits and Dodgers come through. Here's an afternoon soccer pick and a race from Parx.

100* Brighton & Hove -140

Parx Race 6
#4 Air Attack $10 wps
$2 exacta box 4-2-5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-26-2020, 12:28 PM

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Sunday

Browns 37, Cincinnati 34
— Mayfield threw a 24-yard TD pass with 0:11 left to win this exciting game.
— Browns’ last five drives: 40 plays, 379 yards, five TD’s (34 points)
— Cleveland split its four road games, giving up 37 ppg.
— Last 4+ years, Cleveland is 1-5 ATS as a road favorite.
— Five of their last six games went over the total.

— Bengals had ball in Cleveland red zone on 7 of their 8 drives.
— Rookie QB Burrow threw for 406 yards; Bengals scored TD’s on their last two drives.
— Bengals scored 30-34 points against Cleveland this year, but lost both games.
— Cincinnati is 5-1-1 ATS this season.
— Divisional home underdogs are 8-0 ATS so far this season.

Washington 25, Cowboys 3
— Dallas is first team EVER to allow 20+ first half points, six games in a row.
— Last six games, Dallas is minus-14 in turnovers.
— Cowboys are 0-7 ATS this year; their two wins by total of 4 points.
— Cowboys are 3-7 ATS in last nine games as a road favorite.
— Dallas offense in 2nd half: 19 plays, 30 yards, 3 first downs, zero points.

— Washington outrushed Dallas 208-83.
— Washington had lost its previous five games, before this easy win.
— This is only 2nd win for Washington in last nine series games.
— Washington in 1st half, on 5 drives: 33 plays, 276 yards, three TD’s.
— Washington sacked two Dallas QB’s 6 times; they KO’d Andy Dalton.

Lions 23, Atlanta 22
— Stafford threw an 11-yard TD pass on the last play of the game for the win.
— Prater made FG’s of 50-51-49 yards; the game-winning PAT was 50 yards long.
— Lions allowed 27+ points in their three losses; 22-23-16 in their wins.
— Detroit won field position by 12-yard average.
— NFC North teams are 13-5 ATS outside the division.

— Atlanta scored a TD with 1:04 left, instead of taking a knee that would’ve ended the game, and that gave Detroit the chance they needed to win the game.
— Atlanta lost all four of its home games, giving up 28.5 ppg.
— Falcons are 5-10 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite.
— Home side lost six of last eight series games.
— NFC South teams are 1-7 ATS in non-divisional home games.

New Orleans 27, Panthers 24
— Carolina just barely missed a 65-yard FG with 1:55 left that would’ve tied it.
— Panthers ran ball only 14 times for 37 yards- they only ran 43 plays overall.
— Carolina converted 6-9 third down plays; New Orleans 12-14.
— Carolina is 15-10 ATS in last 25 games as a road underdog.
— Team leading at halftime won all seven Carolina games.

— New Orleans outgained Panthers 415-283.
— Saints allowed 23-29-27-24 points in their wins, 34-37 in losses.
— New Orleans is 7-14 ATS in its last 21 games as a home favorite.
— Saints had ball six times; three TD’s, two FG’s and a fumble.
— All six of their games went over the total.
— Saints won seven of last eight series games; four of their last five series wins were by 5 or fewer points.

Bills 18, NJ Jets 10
— Buffalo won game without scoring a TD; they made 6-8 FG’s.
— Bills had ball nine times, and tried FG’s on 8 of the 9 drives.
— Buffalo won field position by 10 yards, ran 72 plays, to 51 for Jets.
— Total yardage in game: 422-190, Bills.
— Last time Buffalo won without scoring a TD? Week 13 of 2007, in a 17-16 win at Washington.

— Jets haven’t won yet, but they covered here- they’ve lost all their home games by 18-9-20-8 points.
— Weird thing is, they’re +4 in turnovers the last four games, but were still outscored by a combined 109-48.
— Jets in second half: 16 plays, four yards, 2 first downs, no points.
— Four of their last five games stayed under the total.
— Divisional home underdogs are 8-0 ATS so far this season.

Packers 35, Houston 20
— Packers scored TD’s on four of their first six drives.
— Green Bay won five of its six games, losing in Week 6 to Tampa.
— Packers are 3-0 in domes this season, scoring 43-37-35 points.
— Green Bay converted 7-12 3rd down plays; they did have a punt blocked.
— NFC North teams are 13-5 ATS outside the division.

— Texans lost six of their first seven games, giving up 28+ points in every game.
— Total yardage was close: 379-365 Packers, but Green Bay led 21-0 at the half.
— Houston is 3-6 ATS in last nine games as a home underdog.
— AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 3-6 ATS.

Steelers 27, Tennessee 24
— Steelers won first six games (5-1 ATS), scoring 30.5 ppg.
— Pittsburgh’s first two drives: 29 plays, 136 yards, two TD’s, TOP: 16:23.
— Steelers led 24-7 at halftime, then hung on for dear life.
— Pittsburgh won six of last eight series games.
— Over is 3-1-1 in their last five games.

— Tennessee has played five games decided by 3 or fewer points or in OT.
— Titans scored 17+ points in 2nd half, in each of their last four games.
— Tennessee ran only 56 plays in this game; Steelers ran 74.
— Over is 3-1-1 in Titans’ last five games.
— AFC South teams are 7-10 ATS outside the division.

49ers 33, New England 6
— 49ers ran ball for 197 yards, outgained New England 467-247
— Niners are 4-0 if they score 24+ points, 0-3 if they score less than 24.
— 49ers are 13-7 ATS in last 20 games as a road underdog.
— NFC West teams are 13-7 ATS outside the division.
— First half overs are 66-37-2 so far this season.

— Patriots lost last three games, scoring two TD’s on 30 drives, with 11 turnovers.
— New England ran only 49 plays, were 1-6 on 3rd down, threw four INTs.
— Last three games, Patriots are minus-9 in turnovers, were outscored 41-9 in first half.
— Newton was benched in this game after going 9-15/98 with three INT’s.
— AFC East teams are 5-11 ATS outside the division.

Chiefs 43, Denver 16
— Chiefs scored 43, and didn’t convert a third down (0-8).
— Chiefs are 4-0 on foreign soil, winning by 3-14-9-27 points.
— KC is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games as a road favorite.
— Chiefs scored a defensive TD and ran a kick back for a TD.
— Chiefs won last ten series games, last three by total of 96-25.

— Denver turned ball over four times, allowed a kick return TD.
— Broncos lost all three of their home games, 16-14/28-10/43-16.
— Chiefs won their last four visits to Denver.
— Divisional home underdogs are now 8-1 ATS so far this season.

Buccaneers 45, Las Vegas 20
— Buccaneers’ last 7 drives: five touchdowns, one FG.
— Tampa Bay won five of its last six games, scoring 36.5 ppg.
— Bucs are allowing only 66.3 rushing yards/game.
— Last 4+ years, Tampa Bay is 5-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— NFC South non-divisional road teams are 6-3 ATS.

— Raiders scored 34-34-40 points in their wins, 20-23-20 in losses.
— Las Vegas has led only one of its games at halftime, beck in Week 1.
— All six of their games went over the total.
— Raiders didn’t have a sack or a takeaway, allowed 8.2 yards/pass attempt.

LA Chargers 39, Jaguars 29
— Jaguars trailed 16-0 early, then scored three straight TD’s, last one on a blocked punt.
— Jaguars lost last six games, are 0-5 ATS in last five.
— Jacksonville gave up 33.2 ppg in its last six games.
— Jaguars are 5-11-1 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog.
— AFC South teams are 6-12 ATS outside the division.

— Rookie QB Herbert threw for 347 yards, got his first NFL win.
— Chargers outgained Jacksonville 484-294.
— Last five times Bolts had ball: 31 plays, 264 yards, three TD’s, FG, missed FG
— Herbert ran 9 times for 66 yards; he was LA’s leading rusher.
— AFC West teams are 11-5-2 ATS outside the division.

Arizona 37, Seahawks 34 OT
— Lockett caught 15 passes for 200 yards, three TD’s.
— Seahawks had 42-yard TD nullified by a holding penalty with 1:04 left in OT.
— Seattle won five of its first six games, scoring 33.7 ppg.
— Road team is 9-2-1 SU in last 12 series games.
— First loss for Seahawks in their last seven visits to the desert.
— Five of their six games went over the total.

— Cardinals scored 10 points in last 2:28 to send game to OT.
— Only time Arizona led the game was when they kicked FG in OT.
— Murray threw for 360 yards, three TD’s; ran ball for 67 yards and a TD.
— Arizona DB Budda Baker picked off a 1st half pass and appeared to headed for a TD, but was caught from behind by Seattle WR Metcalf. Cardinals didn’t score on the ensuing drive.
— Divisional home underdogs are now 9-1 ATS so far this season.

Dodgers 4, Rays 2 (LA leads 3-2)
— Dodgers scored twice in first inning, hung on from there.
— LA bullpen got the last 10 outs without allowing a run.
— Pederson homered for the Dodgers.
— Game 5 is Tuesday night.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-26-2020, 12:29 PM

Bears vs. Rams Week 7 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

After being on the right side of things in the Los Angeles game last week for SNF, it's Round Two for handicapping a prime time Rams game as they welcome the MNF crew into town this week.

Last week I talked about how I wasn't ready to believe in this Rams team despite their 4-1 SU record because all of those wins came against NFC East foes. I see very little value in beating NFC East teams for anyone else outside of that division, and a slow and sloppy start vs the 49ers had L.A. chasing their tails uphill for the good majority of that loss to the 49ers.

But this week the Rams are at home laying chalk, against a Bears team that's got some legitimacy questions of their own about the 5-1 SU record they currently sport.

Two of those five wins were basically handed over to the Bears by the Lions and Falcons in those teams blowing big leads vs Chicago, and even a 17-13 win over the Giants – the one common opponent Chicago and L.A. have - doesn't look all that good considering Chicago was up 17-0 at the break of that game and nearly coughed it up themselves.

Wins against Tampa Bay and Carolina have been better showings for the Bears, as both came as small underdogs and in Nick Foles' second and third start with the team. So there are things pointed in the right direction for Chicago in some regards, but will it be enough to make it three straight ATS wins (and maybe SU wins) against the Rams this week?

Betting Resources

Week 7 Matchup: NFC vs. NFC
Venue: SoFi Stadium
Location: Inglewood, CA
Date: Monday, Oct. 26, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

The Chicago Bears defense has been very stout this season and the unit has helped the club go 3-0 as visitors. (AP)

Line Movements

Spread: Los Angeles -6
Money-Line: Los Angeles -265, Chicago +225
Total: 45

2020 Betting Stats

Chicago

Overall: 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS, 2-4 O/U
Road: 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 21.3 (Rank 27)
Defense PPG: 19.3 (Rank 7)
Offense YPG: 337.8 (Rank 28)
Defense YPG: 337.2 (Rank 7)

Los Angeles

Overall: 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS, 2-4 O/U
Home: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 25.3 (Rank 19)
Defense PPG: 19.0 (Rank 5)
Offense YPG: 388.2 (Rank 10)
Defense YPG: 318.5 (Rank 4)

Handicapping the Total

The Bears come into this game on a 0-3 O/U run as their defense has held three straight opponents to fewer than 20 points in each of those games. Chicago went 2-1 SU in those games despite not scoring more than 23 points themselves, as the move to Foles may generate the headlines at times for Chicago, but this is still a defensive-first team that expects to have their most success in these 23-20 or 24-17 type games.

The Rams are on a 0-3 O/U run as well coming into this game, as their defense has held it's own as well, allowing less than 20 to all four NFC East foes they've beaten and given up 24+ in their two defeats to the rest of the league. The Bears are considered part of the rest of the league in that equation, although they've only scored 21 or more points in just half of their six games in 2020 so far.

That being said, a couple of decent 'under' runs for both sides coming in, and the general profile of at least one team (Chicago) being a defensive-oriented one in the marketplace, has me looking at the contrarian approach for a play on going 'over' this number as the best betting option.

Yes, these two teams have met the past two seasons and played games that finished 15-6 and 17-7, but that and more importantly all the defensive metrics both sides have put up in 2020 are already incorporated into the line.

In an era where we've typically got 6+ games on a NFL Sunday having totals in the 50's, a number as “low” as 45 stands out in such a way that in the bigger picture of league wide trends this year really lends itself to looking at going 'over' this number.

And then when you see it's really been nothing but 'under' money on this game all week with the opener of 47 being steadily bet down to its current status, you realize that the general consensus on this game is related to three things. Those recent 'under' streaks both sides have had, the issues on offense both teams have had scoring points, and the recent head-to-head history between the two where we were lucky to get 20 points between the two of them.

Well, contrarian 'over' plays really don't come up that often, and for someone like myself who loves to be fading public underdogs, fading public 'unders' tend to fall in the same boat.

I get that any positive offensive numbers the Rams have put up still have to come with the qualifier that it came against NFC East teams, but this is still a L.A. squad that enters the week ranked 7th in offensive EPA/play right now, as only offensive “juggernauts” in Tennessee, K.C., Seattle, Green Bay, Vegas, and Buffalo rank ahead of L.A. in that regard.

If the Rams do indeed belong in the same offensive class as some of those teams, they'll prove it against this Bears defense who has their own legitimacy questions about what offenses they've faced, with Tom Brady and a depleted Tampa team on a short week likely being the best of the bunch.

And while the Bears may prefer to play in (and win) 23-20 type games, they know that's not realistic to expect on a weekly basis. If teams can neutralize the Rams pass rush, there are numerous ways to move the ball up and down the field on this team, and you only have to reference the 49ers and Bills games vs L.A. to see that.

Finally, we can't forget that if the Bears mantra is indeed to try and be on the right side of as many 23-20 type games as they can, that total is still just a FG shy of going 'over' this current number.

Doesn't take much in the NFL for a bounce, or penalty, or any number of things to go a certain way to lead to those extra points an 'over' ticket may need late in this game, as today's NFL has shown us that teams can go 'over' a mid-40's total almost by accident.

I believe we may see exactly that happen here.

Head-to-Head History

Nov. 17, 2019 - Los Angeles 17 vs. Chicago 7, Rams -5.5, Under 40
Dec. 9, 2018 - Chicago 15 vs. Los Angeles 6, Bears +3, Under 51

Handicapping the Side

The side in this game is an easy pass all the way around with the legitimacy question marks attached to both teams. I doubted the Rams were as good as their 4-1 SU record suggested last week, and nothing they did in that San Francisco game changed my view on that. Especially not enough to consider laying six points with them in this game.

And the Bears feel a lot like the Rams did a week ago, with legitimacy questions surrounding their record still largely unanswered at this point in my view.

Taking the points with Chicago could work out with the idea that it is a lot of points to give a 5-1 SU team, but when you question how “real” that 5-1 SU record is, that +6 point spread attached to their name generally looks like it is where it probably should be.

If anything, I do expect the Rams to find a way to win this game, so teasing them down or putting L.A. in a ML parlay or something like that would be the only thing I'd consider here.