Service Plays Saturday 10/24/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football

Baseball
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College Basketball
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NBA
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NHL
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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin

3% Rice -3
4% Virginia Tech -7'
4% Cincinnati +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

New Mexico / Colorado State has been called off

[rocky57]

Kevin Davis (VegasInsider CFB)

Best Bet - Purdue/Iowa Under 53.5

Baylor +295 (Moneyline)
Baylor +9
Virginia Tech -9
NC State Over 22.5 (-114) Team Total

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marco D'angelo

4% Georgia Southern +4'

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Barrett Sallee

MINNESOTA +3
MICHIGAN @ MINNESOTA | 10/24 | 7:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 5:13 PM
The wrong team is favored here. Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan, wide receiver Rashod Bateman and running back Mohamed Ibrahim are three of the biggest playmakers in the Big Ten, and it’s hard to imagine Michigan’s offense having success in what should be a high-scoring affair. Take the three points but you might want to consider a little money line sprinkle on the Golden Gophers.

4-0 IN LAST 4 CFB ATS PICKS | +400
4-1 IN LAST 5 MICH ATS PICKS | +289

OKLAHOMA -6.5
OKLAHOMA @ TCU | 10/24 | 12:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 5:11 PM
Sooners quarterback Spencer Rattler has had some head-scratching moments, but he has helped his team score 30 or more points in all four games of the season. On the flip side, TCU ranks seventh in the Big 12 in opponent red zone touchdown conversion percentage (66.67%). Rattler is fully capable of moving his offense up and down the field, and TCU has proven that it isn’t exactly clutch on the defensive side of the ball.

4-0 IN LAST 4 CFB ATS PICKS | +400
11-3 IN LAST 14 OKLA ATS PICKS | +765

3-2 IN LAST 5 TCU ATS PICKS | +77

SYRACUSE +45
SYRACUSE @ CLEMSON | 10/24 | 12:00 PM EDT
MON 10/19
It’s dang near impossible to pick a side in Clemson dial-a-score games. In this, I’ll dial up a Syracuse cover. This spread is a direct byproduct of last week’s shellacking of Georgia Tech. I have a hard time believing that coach Dabo Swinney will keep his foot on the gas for anything more than a quarter against the Orange. Expect to see Trevor Lawrence on the bench for 45 minutes and the third-teamers to allow a late score or two. Take the Over ... and pray.

4-0 IN LAST 4 CFB ATS PICKS | +400
5-1 IN LAST 6 CLEM ATS PICKS | +390

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Emory Hunt

AIR FORCE -7
AIR FORCE @ SAN JOSE ST. | 10/24 | 10:30 PM EDT
10:15 AM
San Jose State has a lot of players returning, which should help the Spartans navigate through a unique year in college football with the pandemic. However, being able to effectively slow down the option offense requires a lot of practice and repetition, and will be a tough assignment for a season opener. Air Force looked really good in its lone game so far against Navy. Take the Falcons.

9-1 IN LAST 10 CFB ATS PICKS | +790
2-1 IN LAST 3 AF ATS PICKS | +90

OKLAHOMA ST. -3.5
IOWA ST. @ OKLAHOMA ST. | 10/24 | 3:30 PM EDT
10:11 AM
Oklahoma State has played extremely well defensively, almost surprisingly well. It was the Cowboys' defense that helped them avoid the upset against Tulsa and helped them knock off West Virginia. With their offense getting more and more into gear each game, Oklahoma State is a dangerous squad moving forward. Iowa State will be a game opponent but not enough to cover the spread.

9-1 IN LAST 10 CFB ATS PICKS | +790
3-2 IN LAST 5 OKLAST ATS PICKS | +79

MICHIGAN ST. -13
RUTGERS @ MICHIGAN ST. | 10/24 | 12:00 PM EDT
10:07 AM
This should be a really physical game, as both coaches, Mel Tucker for Michigan State and Greg Schiano for Rutgers, are excellent defensive-minded coaches who preach toughness. Where I prefer Michigan State is on the offensive side of the ball; Rutgers is still trying to figure out its QB position and is questionable along the offensive line. Spartans cover.

9-1 IN LAST 10 CFB ATS PICKS | +790
8-2 IN LAST 10 RUT ATS PICKS | +581

6-1 IN LAST 7 MICHST ATS PICKS | +489

TULSA -10.5
TULSA @ SOUTH FLORIDA | 10/23 | 7:30 PM EDT
10:04 AM
Tulsa has played really good football this year on both sides of the line of scrimmage. What the team has done defensively is right up there with Cincinnati. South Florida, on the other hand, has struggled on defense this year with a very young team. Look for Tulsa to set the pace early and cruise to an easy cover.

9-1 IN LAST 10 CFB ATS PICKS | +790
4-0 IN LAST 4 SFLA ATS PICKS | +400

3-1 IN LAST 4 TULSA ATS PICKS | +190

ALABAMA -21
ALABAMA @ TENNESSEE | 10/24 | 3:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:17 AM
We've reached the point of the season where certain teams have started to panic. That is the Tennessee Volunteers. They benched their starting QB during last week's game and fired an assistant coach after their beatdown against Kentucky. With this team in disarray, expect Alabama to take full advantage. The Crimson Tide is a freight train traveling at high speed toward the College Football Playoff. The Tide roll.

9-1 IN LAST 10 CFB ATS PICKS | +790
6-0 IN LAST 6 BAMA ATS PICKS | +600

9-4 IN LAST 13 TENN ATS PICKS | +457

MARSHALL -17
FAU @ MARSHALL | 10/24 | 2:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:13 AM
This is only FAU's second game of the season. The Owls' first four contests were either postponed or canceled, and now they face one of the hottest teams in college football. Marshall continues to stack big, impressive victories in hopes of landing a major bowl bid. FAU will have to be ready defensively to face RB Brenden Knox and the Thundering Herd rushing attack, and the Owls offense has to be ready to handle the pressure of Marshall's defense. This is a bad matchup for FAU.

9-1 IN LAST 10 CFB ATS PICKS | +790
6-0 IN LAST 6 FAU ATS PICKS | +600

3-0 IN LAST 3 MRSHL ATS PICKS | +300

NC STATE +17
NC STATE @ NORTH CAROLINA | 10/24 | 12:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:06 AM
One of the major surprises in the ACC has been how NC State can score. The offense has really consistent, and RB Zonovan Knight should help the Wolfpack move the ball even with QB Devin Leary out. Defensively, pass rusher Daniel Joseph has found himself in the backfield often, leading the team with three sacks. While UNC has the weapons on offense and talented players on defense, the Tar Heels have been a bit too up-and-down for me to trust them in this rivalry game by 17 points.

9-1 IN LAST 10 CFB ATS PICKS | +790
11-2-1 IN LAST 14 UNC ATS PICKS | +878

4-2-1 IN LAST 7 NCST ATS PICKS | +178

LIBERTY -10
SO. MISS @ LIBERTY | 10/24 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:58 AM
The Liberty Flames are riding high, entering this game with a 5-0 record. QB Malik Willis has been exactly what coach Hugh Freeze has hoped for, since transferring from Auburn. The Flames offense is firing on all cylinders, and the defense is playing with a lot of confidence. Southern Miss enters this game coming off a long layoff due to COVID-19 postponements and will need a few series to get back into the groove of things. The Golden Eagles can't afford that to happen against Liberty.

9-1 IN LAST 10 CFB ATS PICKS | +790
4-0 IN LAST 4 LIB ATS PICKS | +400

OHIO ST. -27
NEBRASKA @ OHIO ST. | 10/24 | 12:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:51 AM
I feel like the Buckeyes have practiced throughout the pandemic and will hit the ground running a lot better than their Big Ten counterparts. QB Justin Fields will be out to remind folks that he has a legitimate argument for being the best QB in the country. He was a Heisman finalist last year and will have enough solid weapons around him to get back to New York City later this year. Take Ohio State.

9-1 IN LAST 10 CFB ATS PICKS | +790
7-1 IN LAST 8 NEB ATS PICKS | +586

10-7-1 IN LAST 18 OHIOST ATS PICKS | +225

BYU -29
TEXAS ST. @ BYU | 10/24 | 10:15 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:38 AM
Texas State has played inspired football throughout the season and is much better than its 1-5 record indicates. Matchups in football dictate outcomes, and this is just a bad matchup for Texas State. BYU has an explosive offense and one of the top defenses in the nation and should get its star DT, Khyiris Tonga, back for this game. QB Zach Wilson will continue to stack Heisman-worthy performances on top of one another. The Cougars cover.

9-1 IN LAST 10 CFB ATS PICKS | +790
2-1 IN LAST 3 BYU ATS PICKS | +90

2-1 IN LAST 3 TXSTSM ATS PICKS | +90

CINCINNATI +2.5
CINCINNATI @ SMU | 10/24 | 9:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:32 AM
SMU needed overtime to knock off Tulane last week. I came away more worried about the SMU defense than anything. The Mustangs offense showed that it should be fine without WR Reggie Roberson Jr. and RB TJ McDaniel, but the defense struggled to get Tulane off the field. SMU faces one of the best defenses in college football in Cincinnati, which will be coming into this matchup with an extra week of preparation.

9-1 IN LAST 10 CFB ATS PICKS | +790
6-3 IN LAST 9 CINCY ATS PICKS | +268

MIAMI (FLA.) -11.5
VIRGINIA @ MIAMI (FLA.) | 10/24 | 8:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:26 AM
Virginia has had trouble defensively, giving up far too many big plays. Miami is coming off a solid win against Pitt, in which the Hurricanes bested the Panthers in all three phases of the game. It was a really good showing after their embarrassing loss to Clemson. Look for the Canes to put the clamps on the Cavaliers' offensive attack.

9-1 IN LAST 10 CFB ATS PICKS | +790
5-4 IN LAST 9 MIAMI ATS PICKS | +62

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Oh
DATA SCIENTIST
YESTERDAY 1:13 PM

OHIO ST. -27
NEBRASKA @ OHIO ST. | 10/24 | 12:00 PM EDT
The Buckeyes have big goals for the season, and I think they're anxious to get into the national championship chase. Remember, with fewer games to make an impression on the College Football Playoff committee, Ohio State needs to make a statement every week. My model says the Buckeyes cover well over 50 percent of the time, so you're getting value with Ohio State at this number.

5-4 IN LAST 9 CFB ATS PICKS | +55
14-3 IN LAST 17 OHIOST ATS PICKS | +1070

5-2 IN LAST 7 NEB ATS PICKS | +279

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Josh Nagel
SENIOR ANALYST
1:17 PM

BAYLOR +9
BAYLOR @ TEXAS | 10/24 | 3:30 PM EDT
Former Baylor coach Matt Rhule was a consistent thorn for Texas and this would be an auto-take with him at the helm. With Rhule gone to the Carolina Panthers and Dave Aranda in place, it's hard to tell what to expect from a Bears club that has played just two games because of myriad cancellations. Still, this is too many points to lay with a Texas club coming off deflating losses to TCU and Oklahoma. The Longhorns' defense has been consistently vulnerable and their offense has underachieved.

15-8 IN LAST 23 CFB PICKS | +616
15-5 IN LAST 20 TEXAS ATS PICKS | +950

10-6 IN LAST 16 BAYLOR ATS PICKS | +341

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tom Fornelli

SYRACUSE +46
SYRACUSE @ CLEMSON | 10/24 | 12:00 PM EDT
10:27 AM
Clemson is the best team in the ACC. It might be the best team in the country. Last week it treated Georgia Tech like some low-level FCS team in a 73-7 win. Syracuse, meanwhile, was at home getting blasted by Liberty. But you know what? There is no way in the world I am laying 46 points with anybody against anybody in a conference game. Particularly a Power Five conference game. Clemson might win by 50, but I won't care. I made the right play.

20-16-1 LAST 37 CFB SIDES | +535

PITTSBURGH +10.5
NOTRE DAME @ PITTSBURGH | 10/24 | 3:30 PM EDT
10:25 AM
Notre Dame hasn't found a lot of success on offense in the passing game and is overly-reliant on running the ball. Saturday they'll be going against a Pitt rush defense that has been amazing this season. I don't think the Irish will be able to put up enough points in this game to cover a double-digit spread here.

20-16-1 LAST 37 CFB SIDES | +535
2-1-1 IN LAST 4 PITT ATS PICKS | +89

IOWA ST. +3.5
IOWA ST. @ OKLAHOMA ST. | 10/24 | 3:30 PM EDT
10:24 AM
I get the sense that a lot of people are crowning Oklahoma State as Big 12 champions already simply because Oklahoma and Texas have been bad. While the Pokes are off to a 3-0 start with great defense, they haven't played anybody. Iowa State's proven itself already this year, and Matt Campbell has gone 17-5 ATS as an underdog in Big 12 play with the Cyclones. I'll trust that record and Iowa State's performances against better teams than Oklahoma State's played.

20-16-1 LAST 37 CFB SIDES | +535
3-0 IN LAST 3 OKLAST ATS PICKS | +300

3-0 IN LAST 3 IOWAST ATS PICKS | +300

GEORGIA TECH +3.5
GEORGIA TECH @ BOSTON COLLEGE | 10/24 | 4:00 PM EDT
10:21 AM
The Boston College defense was gashed on the ground by the Hokies as Virginia Tech rushed for 350 yards against it, picking up 8.5 yards per carry. Well, Georgia Tech's offense isn't quite the rushing juggernaut that Tech's is, but they do have the same kind of personnel who can take advantage of the freshly exposed weaknesses in BC's defense. Jahmyr Gibbs and Jeff Sims are two dynamic freshmen whom I believe can follow in the footsteps of Hendon Hooker and Khalil Herbert last week.

20-16-1 LAST 37 CFB SIDES | +535
2-1 IN LAST 3 BC ATS PICKS | +90

UNDER 54.5
MARYLAND @ NORTHWESTERN | 10/24 | 7:30 PM EDT
10:20 AM
This is a friendly reminder that Northwestern scored 12.7 points per game in the Big Ten last year and Maryland scored 16. Yes, both teams have new QBs, and Northwestern has a new playcaller, but unless touchdowns in the Big Ten are worth 10 points now, I have a hard time imagining this game going Over.

2-1 IN LAST 3 NWEST O/U PICKS | +90

MINNESOTA +3
MICHIGAN @ MINNESOTA | 10/24 | 7:30 PM EDT
10:19 AM
When I look at this matchup I see one team with a lot of returning talent on offense and a strong offensive line as an underdog going against an offense that's entirely unproven with a QB making his first career start. Now, Michigan has the defensive advantage here, but considering all the turnover on Michigan's offense, it's hard to trust the Wolverines as a road favorite in this spot. Plus, Minnesota didn't win 11 games by accident. When's the last time Michigan won 11 games?

20-16-1 LAST 37 CFB SIDES | +535

UNDER 67.5
NEBRASKA @ OHIO ST. | 10/24 | 12:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 6:17 PM
There's been a trend I've been following this season amongst teams who didn't start the 2020 season "on time." So far there have been 29 games between teams playing their first games of the season later than usual, and the Under has gone 18-11 in those games. I think that's a trend that could continue here, as this total is too high. I expect Ohio State to build an early lead and then cruise to the finish line.

4-0 IN LAST 4 OHIOST O/U PICKS | +400

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Barrett Sallee

UNDER 70.5
AUBURN @ OLE MISS | 10/24 | 12:00 PM EDT
8:43 AM
Vegas expects this to be a shootout, and for the life of me, I can’t figure out why. Auburn’s offense is a joke and, while Ole Miss has weapons, it’s hard to trust a team that turned the ball over seven times last weekend. Auburn will rely on Tank Bigsby to keep the Rebels offense off the field, grind it out, and send this one WAY Under.

5-1 IN LAST 6 CFB PICKS | +390
3-1-1 IN LAST 5 AUBURN O/U PICKS | +190

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Week 8 college football best bets: Who grabs the Little Brown Jug?

Every Thursday during the season, Doug Kezirian (3-1 last week, 13-4 overall), Bill Connelly (0-1, 9-8), Preston Johnson (2-1, 12-9), David M. Hale (1-1, 9-7) and Seth Walder (0-0, 3-3) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 8 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Wednesday.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-10.5, 51) at South Florida Bulls, Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET (on ESPN)

Hale: The number is low, but that should be expected. These are two pretty bad offenses. But we've also got two pretty good defenses, at least thus far. That's not shocking in Tulsa's case -- the Golden Hurricane held Oklahoma State, minus its starting quarterback, to just 16 points in its opener and shut down UCF in the second half of a stunning upset two weeks ago. But South Florida has been solid, too, at least when it comes to big plays. The Bulls have the fourth-best rate in terms of allowing explosive plays among all teams with at least two games played. Tulsa, for what it's worth, ranks 22nd in that category. Meanwhile, Tulsa is 1-6 reaching the total in its past seven games after more than a week off. Add it all up and this should be a grind-it-out game with points few and far between.
Pick: Under 51

Florida State Seminoles at Louisville Cardinals (-4.5, 61), noon ET (on ESPN3)

Kezirian: I am still a fan of Louisville coach Scott Satterfield, but I've been disappointed at times with his clock management and defense. Consequently, I cannot lay the points, even though it reeks of a flat spot for Florida State off the big upset of North Carolina. However, I trust the Cardinals can score against a leaky Seminoles defense. Quarterback Malik Cunningham can have some frustrating moments, but all in all he's solid and always finds a way to incorporate speedster Tutu Atwell, which is a good thing.
Pick: Louisville team total over 33.5 (at DraftKings)

No. 17 Iowa State Cyclones at No. 6 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-3.5, 52), 3:30 p.m. ET (on Fox)

Johnson: First and foremost, I make this number Iowa State +2.5, so getting the hook on the other side of the key number of 3 is a worthwhile advantage. Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders is slated to return from injury and has been practicing, but there are rumors QB Shane Illingworth is still going to get some time as well. I've never really understood the rotating quarterbacks between series strategy, nor have I seen it work.
The market reaction to the Cyclones' loss to Louisiana to open the season out of conference appears to have been too drastic. With a 3-0 start in Big 12, play including a come-from-behind victory over Oklahoma, it's safe to expect more out of Iowa State QB Brock Purdy than a rotating quarterback attack for a Cowboys squad relying on Chuba Hubbard against the 13th-best run defense in the country.
Pick: Iowa State +3.5

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Rice Owls (-3.5, 50.5), 3:30 p.m. ET (on ESPN3)

Connelly: Exactly how good do we think Rice is supposed to be here? Even after Middle Tennessee's late collapse against North Texas last week -- the Blue Raiders were up 28-21 late in the first half but got outscored 31-7 the rest of the way, which dropped them from 102nd to 113th in SP+ -- I'm still looking at only a 0.1-point advantage for Rice, per SP+. And that's with a full 2.5-point home-field advantage, which the Owls are unlikely to generate.
Middle Tennessee has rebounded somewhat after a horrid start, playing three consecutive close games (and winning one) before the North Texas collapse, but even if the Blue Raiders aren't in great form, Rice is still debuting at 117th overall and has played six fewer games than them. I have no idea why the Owls are favored, especially by more than a field goal.
Pick: Middle Tennessee +3.5

Kentucky Wildcats (-5.5, 47) at Missouri Tigers, 4 p.m. ET (on SEC Network)

Hale: Here's a game where the eye test might be deceptive. On one hand, you have Missouri, off an upset in which its freshman QB completed 85% of his throws with four touchdowns. On the other hand, you have Kentucky coming off two good wins -- but both in which its offense did little to nothing. In fact, the Wildcats are just the 10th team since 2010 to win back-to-back games vs. Power 5 competition while managing less than 300 yards of offense in both. Funny thing is, of the previous nine teams to do that, seven won their next game and six ended up with 10 wins on the season. Winning ugly is actually a sign of good teams, and we think Kentucky might be pretty good.
Then look at the defenses. Missouri has allowed 35 points or more in all three games this season while Kentucky's D is among the best in the nation. Connor Bazelak isn't going to have the same success this week he did against LSU. The Wildcats win this one big -- with at least one defensive TD in the mix.
Pick: Kentucky -5.5

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Boston College Eagles (-3, 54.5), 4 p.m. ET (on ACC Network)

Hale: Last week's performance is a bit misleading. Yes, BC was blown out by Virginia Tech, but that game started with turnovers in Hokies territory on three of BC's first four drives (the other was an Eagles touchdown). Add in another Eagles interception deep in Virginia Tech territory in the fourth quarter and you get an idea of how badly BC shot itself in the foot against a very good Hokies team. Now recall that Georgia Tech just let Clemson hang 73 on it, has struggled against the run and is prone to turnovers of its own. Moreover, BC has been a cover machine of late in ACC play -- 20-7-1 against the spread since 2017.
Pick: Boston College -3

Georgia State Panthers at Troy Trojans (-2.5, 68.5), 4 p.m. ET (on ESPNU)

Connelly: Troy narrowly survived a funky, 31-29 game against Eastern Kentucky last week; the Trojans outgained the Colonels 7.0-5.4 in yards per play, but turnovers gave EKU a massive field position advantage and set up touchdown drives of 3 and 30 yards. It wasn't a great showing by Troy, but it wasn't as bad as the score, either.
SP+ still gives the Trojans a 6.9-point advantage over Georgia State, primarily because both teams have pretty good offenses, but only Troy can prevent explosions. Troy is a solid 24th in my marginal explosiveness measure (which looks at the magnitude of a team's successful plays and adjusts for field position), while GSU is 67th out of 76 teams that have played so far. I wouldn't be surprised if the point total goes over, but I do think Troy has more than a field goal advantage.
Pick: Troy -2.5

South Carolina Gamecocks at LSU Tigers (-6, 55.5), 7 p.m. ET (on ESPN)

Kezirian: It takes a strong stomach to bet an under in any football game, but I think this situation calls for it. First, the Tigers are likely to turn to a backup quarterback to replace injured starter Myles Brennan, and both options are freshmen. Also, the Tigers' defense has certainly regressed this season, but a deeper dive suggests the under is the right play. LSU ranks fifth worst in all of FBS in yards allowed per pass attempt, while the rushing stats are not nearly as awful. South Carolina is not really a passing team, so I doubt the Gamecocks can capitalize on LSU's biggest weakness. They're a tough team that wants to run the ball. Furthermore, I prefer the under in the first half because I avoid a situation if one team trails by multiple scores and starts to press. That usually results in turnovers.
Pick: Under 27.5 first half

No. 18 Michigan Wolverines (-3.5, 54.5) at No. 21 Minnesota Golden Gophers, 7:30 p.m. ET (on ABC)

Connelly: Call this a battle of knowns versus unknowns. Michigan has major upside, but most of it comes from an exciting sophomore class. The offense improved a ton during the second half of last season -- from 66th to 21st in offensive SP+ -- but the passing game has gotten a major overhaul. The Wolverines have a higher ceiling than Minnesota but, at least at the start, a much lower floor.
Minnesota also has wide receiver Rashod Bateman and quarterback Tanner Morgan. The Michigan secondary should be solid, but Minnesota's passing game could be more than that if new offensive coordinator Mike Sanford Jr. doesn't change much. I know the Golden Gophers started slowly last season before picking up steam, and if that happens again this pick could fall apart quickly. But this is a veteran squad. I'm excited to see what Michigan has to offer, but I trust Minnesota slightly more right now. And so does SP+, apparently.
Pick: Minnesota +3.5

Maryland Terrapins at Northwestern Wildcats (-11, 54.5), 7:30 p.m. ET

Walder: Northwestern boasted the 41st-most efficient defense last season, but its ability to cover this spread will likely hinge on its offense, which was ugly in 2019, ranking 118th. The unit does have a nice mix of returning experience with new talent. Most notably, former Indiana QB Peyton Ramsey -- who finished 13th in Total QBR last season -- is in under center, under the direction of new offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian (though ESPN's Football Power Index doesn't know about that latter part). The Wildcats bring back their three top running backs and three top receivers from last season.
That's in contrast to Maryland, which has no such certainty of strong ability at quarterback and lost its top two running backs from last season to the NFL draft. Both offenses are bringing back two starters along the offensive line.
Accounting for all of that information is FPI, which favors Northwestern by 18.5 -- a far cry from this line. After our statisticians reworked FPI's priors this offseason, it performed particularly well in the early part of the season. While I'm wary of reading too much into a small sample, if there's something there it would stand to reason that FPI might do well again with teams that have yet to play a game this season.
Pick: Northwestern -11

Texas State Bobcats at No. 12 BYU Cougars (-28.5, 61), 10:15 p.m. ET (on ESPN)

Johnson: My fair projection for the total is closer to 58, so considering we have possible snow and 10-15 mph winds in the forecast Saturday night, playing under at 61 is a no-brainer. BYU is a large favorite with massive blowout potential anyway come the fourth quarter, and we saw a pass-heavy Texas State team struggle to move the ball in windy conditions against Troy two weeks ago, with just 93 yards on 28 attempts. BYU's defense is a tier above Troy's (or anybody else the Bobcats have faced this season, for that matter). This is one of my favorite bets of the year.
Pick: Under 61

Week 8 college football best bets: Who grabs the Little Brown Jug?

Every Thursday during the season, Doug Kezirian (3-1 last week, 13-4 overall), Bill Connelly (0-1, 9-8), Preston Johnson (2-1, 12-9), David M. Hale (1-1, 9-7) and Seth Walder (0-0, 3-3) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 8 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Wednesday.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-10.5, 51) at South Florida Bulls, Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET (on ESPN)

Hale: The number is low, but that should be expected. These are two pretty bad offenses. But we've also got two pretty good defenses, at least thus far. That's not shocking in Tulsa's case -- the Golden Hurricane held Oklahoma State, minus its starting quarterback, to just 16 points in its opener and shut down UCF in the second half of a stunning upset two weeks ago. But South Florida has been solid, too, at least when it comes to big plays. The Bulls have the fourth-best rate in terms of allowing explosive plays among all teams with at least two games played. Tulsa, for what it's worth, ranks 22nd in that category. Meanwhile, Tulsa is 1-6 reaching the total in its past seven games after more than a week off. Add it all up and this should be a grind-it-out game with points few and far between.
Pick: Under 51

Florida State Seminoles at Louisville Cardinals (-4.5, 61), noon ET (on ESPN3)

Kezirian: I am still a fan of Louisville coach Scott Satterfield, but I've been disappointed at times with his clock management and defense. Consequently, I cannot lay the points, even though it reeks of a flat spot for Florida State off the big upset of North Carolina. However, I trust the Cardinals can score against a leaky Seminoles defense. Quarterback Malik Cunningham can have some frustrating moments, but all in all he's solid and always finds a way to incorporate speedster Tutu Atwell, which is a good thing.
Pick: Louisville team total over 33.5 (at DraftKings)

No. 17 Iowa State Cyclones at No. 6 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-3.5, 52), 3:30 p.m. ET (on Fox)

Johnson: First and foremost, I make this number Iowa State +2.5, so getting the hook on the other side of the key number of 3 is a worthwhile advantage. Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders is slated to return from injury and has been practicing, but there are rumors QB Shane Illingworth is still going to get some time as well. I've never really understood the rotating quarterbacks between series strategy, nor have I seen it work.
The market reaction to the Cyclones' loss to Louisiana to open the season out of conference appears to have been too drastic. With a 3-0 start in Big 12, play including a come-from-behind victory over Oklahoma, it's safe to expect more out of Iowa State QB Brock Purdy than a rotating quarterback attack for a Cowboys squad relying on Chuba Hubbard against the 13th-best run defense in the country.
Pick: Iowa State +3.5

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Rice Owls (-3.5, 50.5), 3:30 p.m. ET (on ESPN3)

Connelly: Exactly how good do we think Rice is supposed to be here? Even after Middle Tennessee's late collapse against North Texas last week -- the Blue Raiders were up 28-21 late in the first half but got outscored 31-7 the rest of the way, which dropped them from 102nd to 113th in SP+ -- I'm still looking at only a 0.1-point advantage for Rice, per SP+. And that's with a full 2.5-point home-field advantage, which the Owls are unlikely to generate.
Middle Tennessee has rebounded somewhat after a horrid start, playing three consecutive close games (and winning one) before the North Texas collapse, but even if the Blue Raiders aren't in great form, Rice is still debuting at 117th overall and has played six fewer games than them. I have no idea why the Owls are favored, especially by more than a field goal.
Pick: Middle Tennessee +3.5

Kentucky Wildcats (-5.5, 47) at Missouri Tigers, 4 p.m. ET (on SEC Network)

Hale: Here's a game where the eye test might be deceptive. On one hand, you have Missouri, off an upset in which its freshman QB completed 85% of his throws with four touchdowns. On the other hand, you have Kentucky coming off two good wins -- but both in which its offense did little to nothing. In fact, the Wildcats are just the 10th team since 2010 to win back-to-back games vs. Power 5 competition while managing less than 300 yards of offense in both. Funny thing is, of the previous nine teams to do that, seven won their next game and six ended up with 10 wins on the season. Winning ugly is actually a sign of good teams, and we think Kentucky might be pretty good.
Then look at the defenses. Missouri has allowed 35 points or more in all three games this season while Kentucky's D is among the best in the nation. Connor Bazelak isn't going to have the same success this week he did against LSU. The Wildcats win this one big -- with at least one defensive TD in the mix.
Pick: Kentucky -5.5

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Boston College Eagles (-3, 54.5), 4 p.m. ET (on ACC Network)

Hale: Last week's performance is a bit misleading. Yes, BC was blown out by Virginia Tech, but that game started with turnovers in Hokies territory on three of BC's first four drives (the other was an Eagles touchdown). Add in another Eagles interception deep in Virginia Tech territory in the fourth quarter and you get an idea of how badly BC shot itself in the foot against a very good Hokies team. Now recall that Georgia Tech just let Clemson hang 73 on it, has struggled against the run and is prone to turnovers of its own. Moreover, BC has been a cover machine of late in ACC play -- 20-7-1 against the spread since 2017.
Pick: Boston College -3

Georgia State Panthers at Troy Trojans (-2.5, 68.5), 4 p.m. ET (on ESPNU)

Connelly: Troy narrowly survived a funky, 31-29 game against Eastern Kentucky last week; the Trojans outgained the Colonels 7.0-5.4 in yards per play, but turnovers gave EKU a massive field position advantage and set up touchdown drives of 3 and 30 yards. It wasn't a great showing by Troy, but it wasn't as bad as the score, either.
SP+ still gives the Trojans a 6.9-point advantage over Georgia State, primarily because both teams have pretty good offenses, but only Troy can prevent explosions. Troy is a solid 24th in my marginal explosiveness measure (which looks at the magnitude of a team's successful plays and adjusts for field position), while GSU is 67th out of 76 teams that have played so far. I wouldn't be surprised if the point total goes over, but I do think Troy has more than a field goal advantage.
Pick: Troy -2.5

South Carolina Gamecocks at LSU Tigers (-6, 55.5), 7 p.m. ET (on ESPN)

Kezirian: It takes a strong stomach to bet an under in any football game, but I think this situation calls for it. First, the Tigers are likely to turn to a backup quarterback to replace injured starter Myles Brennan, and both options are freshmen. Also, the Tigers' defense has certainly regressed this season, but a deeper dive suggests the under is the right play. LSU ranks fifth worst in all of FBS in yards allowed per pass attempt, while the rushing stats are not nearly as awful. South Carolina is not really a passing team, so I doubt the Gamecocks can capitalize on LSU's biggest weakness. They're a tough team that wants to run the ball. Furthermore, I prefer the under in the first half because I avoid a situation if one team trails by multiple scores and starts to press. That usually results in turnovers.
Pick: Under 27.5 first half

No. 18 Michigan Wolverines (-3.5, 54.5) at No. 21 Minnesota Golden Gophers, 7:30 p.m. ET (on ABC)

Connelly: Call this a battle of knowns versus unknowns. Michigan has major upside, but most of it comes from an exciting sophomore class. The offense improved a ton during the second half of last season -- from 66th to 21st in offensive SP+ -- but the passing game has gotten a major overhaul. The Wolverines have a higher ceiling than Minnesota but, at least at the start, a much lower floor.
Minnesota also has wide receiver Rashod Bateman and quarterback Tanner Morgan. The Michigan secondary should be solid, but Minnesota's passing game could be more than that if new offensive coordinator Mike Sanford Jr. doesn't change much. I know the Golden Gophers started slowly last season before picking up steam, and if that happens again this pick could fall apart quickly. But this is a veteran squad. I'm excited to see what Michigan has to offer, but I trust Minnesota slightly more right now. And so does SP+, apparently.
Pick: Minnesota +3.5

Maryland Terrapins at Northwestern Wildcats (-11, 54.5), 7:30 p.m. ET

Walder: Northwestern boasted the 41st-most efficient defense last season, but its ability to cover this spread will likely hinge on its offense, which was ugly in 2019, ranking 118th. The unit does have a nice mix of returning experience with new talent. Most notably, former Indiana QB Peyton Ramsey -- who finished 13th in Total QBR last season -- is in under center, under the direction of new offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian (though ESPN's Football Power Index doesn't know about that latter part). The Wildcats bring back their three top running backs and three top receivers from last season.
That's in contrast to Maryland, which has no such certainty of strong ability at quarterback and lost its top two running backs from last season to the NFL draft. Both offenses are bringing back two starters along the offensive line.
Accounting for all of that information is FPI, which favors Northwestern by 18.5 -- a far cry from this line. After our statisticians reworked FPI's priors this offseason, it performed particularly well in the early part of the season. While I'm wary of reading too much into a small sample, if there's something there it would stand to reason that FPI might do well again with teams that have yet to play a game this season.
Pick: Northwestern -11

Texas State Bobcats at No. 12 BYU Cougars (-28.5, 61), 10:15 p.m. ET (on ESPN)

Johnson: My fair projection for the total is closer to 58, so considering we have possible snow and 10-15 mph winds in the forecast Saturday night, playing under at 61 is a no-brainer. BYU is a large favorite with massive blowout potential anyway come the fourth quarter, and we saw a pass-heavy Texas State team struggle to move the ball in windy conditions against Troy two weeks ago, with just 93 yards on 28 attempts. BYU's defense is a tier above Troy's (or anybody else the Bobcats have faced this season, for that matter). This is one of my favorite bets of the year.
Pick: Under 61

[Can'tPickAWinner]

'Stanford Steve' and 'The Bear': Week 8 college football picks, bets, nuggets

College football is underway in 2020, and it's unlike any season we have had before. One thing is familiar, though: "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica breaking down games as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on. The Bear is on a roll, with two perfect weeks in a row (5-0). Can he keep it up?
Here is your guide to Week 8 of the season with the two college football analysts. (Games postponed because of COVID-19 have been removed.)
Records

Stanford Steve (1-2 last week, 12-7 overall)
The Bear (2-0, 10-7)

The plays


No. 8 Penn State Nittany Lions (-6.5, 58.5) at Indiana Hoosiers

The Bear: We know 2020 has thrown us some challenges and curveballs. We'll know for sure how messed up this year is if the Hoosiers snap their 25-game losing streak to top-10 teams. Kidding aside, I think this is a pretty good spot for Indiana. Penn State is down LB Micah Parsons, WR/KR KJ Hamler and RB Journey Brown. In fact, one might argue that the Hoosiers have the better QB/RB combo in Michael Penix and Stevie Scott. Are Penn State's young WR and RB ready to contribute right off the bat? How will that fill the massive void left by Parsons? In the end, maybe Indiana will do Indiana things and drop a 26th straight to top-10 teams, but I'm grabbing the points here.
Pick: Indiana +6.5

No. 23 NC State Wolfpack at No. 14 North Carolina Tar Heels (-15, 61)

Stanford Steve: The line is a little eye-opening, as a one-loss team is getting more than two touchdowns. But I think there will be plenty of points scored in this game. On one side, you have the Tar Heels, who were absolutely brutal in a loss last week in Tallahassee, falling behind 31-7 at halftime and losing 31-28, thanks to a pick-six, two blocked punts and numerous dropped passes. On the other side, you have the Pack, who have exceeded expectations this year by starting 4-1, are averaging more than 33 points per game on offense and give up an average of 31 points per game. We'll take over the total 61 points.
Pick: Over 61 (North Carolina 41, NC State 28)
The Bear: It isn't often that you see a matchup between two teams ranked outside the top 10 with a spread larger than 14 points. There has been one each of the past three years, though, and in all three instances the favorite won and covered easily. I think NC State could be a little dog with fleas-ish this week because of a rivalry game with a large spread and the fact that UNC was upset last week in Tallahassee. But remember, Wolfpack QB Devin Leary is out, and the team's wins are by a field goal over Wake Forest, by a point vs. Pitt in a game in which they allowed more than 500 yards and were outgained by more than 100, at Virginia and vs. Duke (they forced seven turnovers in those two games). I have a feeling UNC will start much faster this week off the loss and with a rivalry game for bragging rights on the slate.
Pick: North Carolina -15

Florida State Seminoles at Louisville Cardinals (-5, 61)

Stanford Steve: Both these teams have underachieved so far this season, and both teams played their best games last week, as Louisville lost 12-7 (yes, they played their best game in a loss in my eyes) to Notre Dame, and FSU beat UNC as a double-digit underdog in a wild game. But the Noles look like a new team since the beginning of the year after changing quarterbacks. The thinking is that both offenses will get it going here. Take the over.
Pick: Over 61 (Louisville 35, Florida State 34)

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Michigan State Spartans (-13.5, 45)

The Bear: Nothing about the Michigan State offense says lay 13.5. I guess, honestly, nothing about the State University of New Jersey says grab the points, either. But like Arkansas, Rutgers has a new head coach and potential impact transfers at QB and WR. That just might mean a surprising level of improvement. I really don't know how big of a talent gap there is between these two teams, and I'm investing with a little blind faith on Greg Schiano and a defense that played OK at times last season, despite one of the worst offenses in the country; Rutgers scored 159 points last year -- 92 came vs. Liberty and UMass. That ain't good. But gimme those points anyway!
Pick: Rutgers +13.5

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Rice Owls (-3, 51.5)

Stanford Steve: The Blue Raiders gave up 492 rush yards to the Mean Green of North Texas. Now, the boys from Murfreesboro face a team in Rice that has a head coach in Mike Bloomgren who will try to find a way to replicate that kind of rush yards at any cost. Rice is playing its first game of the year, and I wonder how much "want" there will be from Middle Tennessee after a 1-5 start to the season. We'll lay the points with the Owls.
Pick: Rice -3 (Rice 31, Middle Tennessee 13)
The Bear's underdogs to play on money line round robin/parlays/straight

Georgia Tech +140
Indiana +200
Purdue +140
San Jose State +220
Rutgers +400
Bear Bytes

Ranked matchups
• There have been 11 ranked matchups this season. Favorites have won 10 of the 11 and are 10-1 ATS. The only upset was Texas A&M's win over Florida two weeks ago.
Little Brown Jug matchup
• Michigan under Jim Harbaugh is 2-12 vs. top 10 and 8-2 vs. No. 11-25 (8-2 both SU and ATS).
• In his past nine games as an underdog, P.J. Fleck is 7-2 straight-up and ATS.
Pitt in good spot?
• Pitt has covered four of the past five times it has faced a ranked Notre Dame team, winning twice outright. Pitt is 4-1 ATS under Pat Narduzzi vs. top-five opponents.
Iowa wins as small favorite
• Purdue had six losses in games decided by four points or fewer in 2018 and 2019. That's tied for the most by any Power 5 team. (K-State also had six.)
• Iowa has won 13 straight games in which it was a favorite of fewer than six points. Its most recent loss in such a game came in 2014 vs. Bo Pelini and Nebraska (37-34). In 11 of those 13 games, the Hawkeyes were favored by 3.5 or less.
Iowa State thrives as underdog
• Under Matt Campbell, Iowa State is 21-8 ATS as an underdog, with eight outright wins. Dating to his time at Toledo, Campbell has covered six straight games versus AP top-10 teams.
Nebraska in trouble
• The Cornhuskers were 0-3 ATS as a 'dog of greater than a TD last year, losing those three games by 16, 27 and 41 points.
Favorite might not suit Michigan State
• Since the start of 2018, Michigan State is 6-11 ATS as a favorite and lost five of those games outright. Even worse, in its past 11 games as a double-digit favorite, MSU is 2-9 ATS and has lost three times outright.
Ole Miss primed for upset of Auburn?
• In his past seven games as an underdog, Lane Kiffin is 5-2 ATS, with two outright wins.
Indiana at a loss but could cover
• Indiana has covered five of its past seven games as an underdog vs. ranked teams. However, Indiana has lost 25 consecutive games straight-up to top-10 teams dating to 2006.
Road unkind to Virginia Tech
• The Hokies are 2-7 ATS with four outright losses in their past nine games as road favorites.
Underdog rule in Virginia-Miami series
• Underdogs have ruled this series since Miami joined the ACC. 'Dogs have covered 13 of the 16 meetings with eight outright wins.
Oklahoma has conflicting trends
• Oklahoma is 3-11 ATS in its past 14 games. However, since 2015, OU has been favored by fewer than seven points eight times. OU is 7-0-1 ATS in those eight games, winning all of them on the field.
• Each of TCU's past eight games has been decided by seven points or fewer. The Horned Frogs are 2-6 in those games. TCU is 2-8 in its past 10 games decided by seven points or fewer.
Rotten sandwich?
• Should Kentucky be on upset alert at Missouri this week after upsetting Tennessee last week and hosting Georgia next week?
Clemson favored big over Syracuse
• Since 1996, there have been 10 games involving two Power 5 teams that featured a spread greater than 45 points. Favorites are 3-7 ATS in those 10 games.
Another cover for Cincinnati at SMU?
• Last year, Cincinnati was an underdog three times in AAC play. The Bearcats covered all three games and won one outright.
Boston College plays favorite vs. Georgia Tech
• BC is 1-6 ATS in its past seven games as a favorite, losing four outright. The Eagles survived 24-21 earlier this season vs. Texas State as a 21.5-point favorite.
Edge to North Carolina vs. NC State
• In the past 10 years, there have been five games between teams ranked outside the top 10 with a spread greater than 14 points. Favorites have covered four of the five, including all three of the games the past three years.
Largest spread in ranked matchup between two teams outside top 10 (past three years):
2019: No. 13 Utah (-15) vs. No. 17 Arizona State, won 21-3
2018: No. 11 Washington (-18) vs. No. 20 BYU, won 35-7
2017: No. 11 Ohio State (-18) vs. No. 13 Michigan State, won 48-3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WUnderdog

CFB

Baylor +9 vs Texas Longhorns

[WeWantMoehr]

Alan Harris:

3 Florida St +5
4 Pitt +10
3 Alabama -21
4 NC State +15.5
3 Miami - 12.5
6 Houston/Navy 55o
5 Iowa St +3.5
4 West Virginia -3
2 Kansas St -20
3 Boise St -16.5
3 UNLV +14.5
2 Air Force -7
7 Minnesota +3
2 FSU/Lou 61u
2 Ga Southern/Coastal Carolina 51.5o
2 UL Monroe/So Alabama 56.5u
2 utah St/Boise St 53o
2 Wyoming/Nevada 51o