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The rest are 2* plays
Mississippi +4
Houston/Navy Under 55.5
Virginia Tech/Wake Forest Under 68.5
Purdue +3.5
Indiana +6.5
Missouri/Kentucky Under 46.5
CINCINNATI +2.5
CINCINNATI @ SMU | 10/24 | 9:00 PM EDT
10:37 AM
My model says Cincinnati wins this game and covers the spread almost 60 percent of the time. So you're getting strong value with the Bearcats at this number. Cincinnati's pass defense ranks No. 2 in the country in passing efficiency and should be able to complicate things for SMU quarterback Shane Buechele, who won't have his top receiver, Reggie Roberson Jr.
5-4 IN LAST 9 CFB ATS PICKS | +55
FLORIDA ST. +5
FLORIDA ST. @ LOUISVILLE | 10/24 | 12:00 PM EDT
10:24 AM
Could Florida State be poised for a letdown after upsetting No. 5 North Carolina last week? Sure. But I see that game as a turning point for this program. I think the 'Noles will ride the momentum from the victory moving forward. On Saturday they face a Louisville team that is the fifth worst in the country in turnover margin. My model says Florida State WINS this game and covers two-thirds of the time, so you're getting strong value at this number.
5-4 IN LAST 9 CFB ATS PICKS | +55
3-2 IN LAST 5 LVILLE ATS PICKS | +79
TAMPA BAY +150
L.A. DODGERS @ TAMPA BAY | 10/24 | 8:08 PM EDT
In his last start, Julio Urias struck out five, while allowing three hits in five innings. The Dodgers are 0-6 with Urias when he is coming off a start in which he had more strikeouts than hits allowed, threw at least 50 pitches and allowed at least one run. The Dodgers were an average of minus 180 on the money line in these six losses. That is burning some cash. The Rays are 13-0 as the home team after they allowed six-plus runs. Also, Tampa is 15-0 as the home team when it is not a series opener and it is coming off a game as a plus-money underdog in which it had six or fewer hits. Eleven of its 15 wins in this spot came as an underdog, the last of which was a 2-1 win over Gerrit Cole and the Yankees in Game 5 of that series a couple weeks back. The value is with the Rays.
122-66-1 IN LAST 189 MLB PICKS | +1644
3-1 IN LAST 4 TB ML PICKS | +155
NORTHWESTERN -11
MARYLAND @ NORTHWESTERN | 10/24 | 7:30 PM EDT
7:16 AM
In 2019 the Northwestern Wildcats suffered a poor 1-8 Big Ten conference record, which resulted in missing a bowl game for the first time since 2014. Landing graduate transfer quarterback Peyton Ramsey immediately boosts their level of play. Grab the Wildcats to overwhelm the Terrapins Saturday.
14-5 IN LAST 19 CFB ATS PICKS | +855
3-1 IN LAST 4 MD ATS PICKS | +190
PURDUE +3.5
IOWA @ PURDUE | 10/24 | 3:30 PM EDT
7:14 AM
The Purdue Boilermakers had a carousel of quarterback injuries last year that resulted in usage of three different players. This season they’ll head into 2020 with a lot more concerns at the position. Yet, Iowa is also transitioning at the position after losing Nate Stanley to graduation. Expect the Boilermakers to cover as small home underdogs.
14-5 IN LAST 19 CFB ATS PICKS | +855
2-1 IN LAST 3 IOWA ATS PICKS | +87
OKLAHOMA -6.5
OKLAHOMA @ TCU | 10/24 | 12:00 PM EDT
7:12 AM
Perhaps no quarterback has had as much of a roller-coaster start to his collegiate career than Spencer Rattler. The redshirt freshman has struggled at times with his composure that resulted in consecutive losses against Kansas State and Iowa State. Expect Rattler to turn the corner with four games under his belt and coming off a bye week. Grab the Sooners on a cheap number based on the Sooners' worst September since 2016.
14-5 IN LAST 19 CFB ATS PICKS | +855
3-0-1 IN LAST 4 OKLA ATS PICKS | +300
ALABAMA -21.5
ALABAMA @ TENNESSEE | 10/24 | 3:30 PM EDT
7:06 AM
Since 2007 the Volunteers are 0-33 against top-10 competition. The vast majority of those defeats have been by 20 points or more. Expect that trend to continue as Alabama's defense is coming off a second-half shutout against Georgia. Furthermore, the Volunteers quarterback situation is not settled after Jarrett Guarantano's struggles last week against Kentucky. Grab Alabama.
14-5 IN LAST 19 CFB ATS PICKS | +855
2-1 IN LAST 3 BAMA ATS PICKS | +86
PENN ST. -6.5
PENN ST. @ INDIANA | 10/24 | 3:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 6:49 PM
Over the last four years the Nittany Lions are 32-20 ATS. James Franklin's team has won 42 games while just losing 11. They have eight players on offense, including their quarterback, and 10 on defense who have seven or more college starts. Indiana's Tom Allen is doing a great job upgrading the talent, however he is not yet to the level of a Penn State. Allen is 0-11 straight up and 4-7 ATS versus Top 25 teams. Penn State is a top 10 team.
13-10 IN LAST 23 CFB PICKS | +205
KENTUCKY -5.5
KENTUCKY @ MISSOURI | 10/24 | 3:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 6:26 PM
Kentucky coach Mark Stoops has done a nice job rebuilding the program. He is 18-8 the last two years while using a converted wide receiver as his primary quarterback. Terry Wilson returned for his senior year after missing most of last year with a knee injury. He was rusty in Week 1 at Auburn but has since rebounded to be one of the most accurate QBs in the SEC. Missouri is under the direction of new head coach Eljah Drinkwitz after just one year at Appalachian State. My power ratings have Kentucky's defense No. 28 and Missouri at No. 59 out of the original 131 teams.
13-10 IN LAST 23 CFB PICKS | +205
CINCINNATI +2.5
CINCINNATI @ SMU | 10/24 | 9:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 6:22 PM
This one is about SMU's offensive strength versus Cincinnati's defensive strength. The Bearcats' defense is allowing just 12.3 points per game and just 4.3 yards per play, ranking No. 6 nationally. SMU's defense ranks 31st allowing 5.5 yards per play. SMU's offense ranks No. 7 in scoring at 42.6 points per game, but Cincinnati isn't too far behind at 35.7 points per game. I have had Cincinnati rated at least three points better the entire season.
13-10 IN LAST 23 CFB PICKS | +205
OVER 68
VIRGINIA TECH @ WAKE FOREST | 10/24 | 3:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 6:20 PM
The Hokies are No. 9 in scoring at 42 points per game and Wake Forest is No. 12 at 40.3 points per game. Both teams are 3-1 to the Over. The numbers don't get any better on defense, with Virginia Tech allowing 31.3 points per game and Wake Forest 29.8 points.
13-10 IN LAST 23 CFB PICKS | +205
2-1 IN LAST 3 VATECH O/U PICKS | +90
OVER 60.5
NC STATE @ NORTH CAROLINA | 10/24 | 12:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 5:44 PM
The Tar Heel offense ranks No. 4 in the country in yards per play at 7.4 and No. 23 in scoring at 35.3 points per game. The defense has allowed 76 points the last two games versus Virginia Tech and Florida State. NC State's offense averages 33.6 points, good for No. 29 overall, and the defense allows 31.4 points. Over is the play.
OVER 43.5
NOTRE DAME @ PITTSBURGH | 10/24 | 3:30 PM EDT
11:22 AM
The Irish saw their offense get stuck in the mud a bit last week against an inspired Louisville defense. They should be able to get back on track against a Pitt defense that is nowhere near as good as its reputation and this total suggests. Moreover, freshman Joey Yellen was pretty decent last week in relief of injured starter Kenny Pickett and he should be better in this one. We missed the best of this number, but the Over is still solid as at least 45 points should hit the scoreboard.
15-8 IN LAST 23 CFB PICKS | +616
VIRGINIA +14
VIRGINIA @ MIAMI (FLA.) | 10/24 | 8:00 PM EDT
10:57 AM
Following a solid Week 1 win over Duke, the Cavaliers have stumbled to three consecutive double-digit defeats. Poor execution late and turnovers have felled this club, which is still better than its record indicates. Virginia should be desperate and focused against a Miami club that beat Pitt last week despite a demeanor that suggested it was going through the motions. The Hurricanes will be in trouble Saturday if they overlook Virginia.
15-8 IN LAST 23 CFB PICKS | +616
9-3 IN LAST 12 MIAMI ATS PICKS | +562
7-3 IN LAST 10 UVA ATS PICKS | +367
OVER 60.5
NC STATE @ NORTH CAROLINA | 10/24 | 12:00 PM EDT
10:50 AM
The surprising Wolfpack are averaging 36 points per game in their four wins and their defense yielded 45 in a loss to Virginia Tech. This sets up as good formula for an Over against a North Carolina club that probably isn't nearly as good as the top-five ranking it was gifted, but also better than it showed in a loss to Florida State last week. The Tar Heels have a ton of offensive potential and this game should play high.
15-8 IN LAST 23 CFB PICKS | +616
2-1 IN LAST 3 UNC O/U PICKS | +88
WYOMING -3
WYOMING @ NEVADA | 10/24 | 7:00 PM EDT
10:45 AM
The Wolf Pack have a solid returning quarterback and a decent core of playmakers on the outside. They should be able to score against an inexperienced Wyoming secondary. But the Cowboys have the edge in physicality and their pro-style offense is geared toward wearing opponents down. They should do just that against a thin defensive front.
15-8 IN LAST 23 CFB PICKS | +616
6-2 IN LAST 8 NEVADA ATS PICKS | +376
OVER 52
IOWA ST. @ OKLAHOMA ST. | 10/24 | 3:30 PM EDT
10:40 AM
The Cowboys only have allowed 27 total points in three games this year, but they have faced pretty meager competition to this point. Iowa State has an experienced offense and has had some success in Boone Pickens Stadium as well. What's more, the Oklahoma State offense has been stuck in the mud a bit and should get going with the return of QB Spencer Sanders from injury.
15-8 IN LAST 23 CFB PICKS | +616
WAKE FOREST +10.5
VIRGINIA TECH @ WAKE FOREST | 10/24 | 3:30 PM EDT
10:34 AM
The Deacons are just a play away from being 3-1 and they are definitely receiving little respect in this spread. They used a balanced attack to blow out Virginia last week and have enough weapons to keep pace with an equally high-powered Hokies club.
15-8 IN LAST 23 CFB PICKS | +616
8-3 IN LAST 11 VATECH ATS PICKS | +474
SYRACUSE +46
SYRACUSE @ CLEMSON | 10/24 | 12:00 PM EDT
10:28 AM
The Orange are 1-4, but I'm still not sure they are quite as bad as their spread ratings suggest. They historically play Clemson tough, and this line might be a bit inflated based on what the Tigers did last week to Georgia Tech. Clemson doesn't stop playing during blowouts, but doesn't look to run it up, either. This is just too big a cushion to pass up.
15-8 IN LAST 23 CFB PICKS | +616
LOUISVILLE -5
FLORIDA ST. @ LOUISVILLE | 10/24 | 12:00 PM EDT
10:22 AM
You know it's an odd state of affairs for the Seminoles when a home win over North Carolina is considered a massive accomplishment. They also gave a decent effort against Notre Dame the prior week, but a flat spot looms Saturday. The Cardinals have been a disappointment after overachieving last year. They are a couple plays away from being 3-2 instead of 1-4 and this is a prime spot for a turnaround against a Florida State team in a prime letdown position.
15-8 IN LAST 23 CFB PICKS | +616
5-1 IN LAST 6 FSU ATS PICKS | +390
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