Wednesday 10/28/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

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Finger Lakes - Race #2

#1 Justice of War	Class riser looked good beating N2L foes last time with ease, and a fast figure too, and sure doesn't meet much for a N3L; call right back.
#2 Tenency	Dropper didn't fire for 10k, so this group makes sense, but that was the third drop in a row, so his form seems very suspect; tread lightly.
#5 Cool Quartet	Deep closer just missed at the level and has been running well of late, and with some speed signed on, he'll pass a bunch late; exotics appeal.
Race Summary	There's no chance you see that 9-2 ML on the pick, but even 3-1 or so seems fair on a runner who is as fast, if not faster, than anyone here on figures, and enters off a win, which is never a bad sign either, so play him aggressively to win and place, and make sure to use him in the early Pk4 as well, as he won't have to improve much, if at all, to double up.

Finger Lakes - Race #4

#2 Time Travel	MSW dropper chased then was last-of-6 on debut, but this is a seismic plunge, she has a ton of upside, and will be a square price too, in a race there for the taking; upset special.
#9 Truly Funny	The gal to beat has run 2nd in three in a row, at odds-on every time too, so sure, she's the most likely winner, but we've said that before, and she's now 17-0-8-1; second-best again.
#8 Pam Dorth Andiamo	Lightly raced runner was 4th to the chalk last time, but with just three lifetime starts she has plenty of room for improvement, and her tactical speed should play well here too; using.
Race Summary	That 20-1 ML would be a huge overlay on the 2, as she takes the biggest drop in racing and should only improve off that debut, so as long as she's 10-1 or so you can give her a look in all the slots, and especially to end the early Pk4 as well, as you're allowed to think outside the box in a race like this, and she could be the right fresh new face, and a win would completely blow up the sequence too.

Finger Lakes - Race #8

#7 Beg to Differ	Price player should be close to the chalk early, has some upside off just six starts, and a repeat of that 2nd two-back would put her in the mix here; call to post the mild surprise.
#2 Smooth Operation	The one to catch and beat will be loose, but he's pulled that trip twice in a row and gave it up easily, so at false odds, there's no reason to think things chance here; trying to beat.
#4 Mac's Revolution	Class riser has won three in a row and will get the acid test here, but he's in the mix on figures, and won't be too far out of it early either, though this 4-1 seems light; mixed signals.
Race Summary	The price will be right on the 7, even though he's eligible to bounce back off his last dud, and trip out too, off a favorite that seems tough to trust, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially the Pk5, and late Pk4 as well, since he could fall through the wagering cracks, which means a win would add plenty of value to both sequences.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mountaineer - Race #5

#9 Babeswildweekend	Very rare career maiden pick, as this one makes his 22nd career start, but the overall form stacks up well with a bullet work in tow in advance of this. Vulnerable favorites?
#7 Golden Star Rock	Wesley Ward barn showing up here and already won with a local runner, but this guy is sure to take cash based on the name barn, and he could be going the wrong way in the lane.
#4 Relmbunkus Syr	Has been putting things together in recent starts, but I don't trust him to hold that form for too long, and the price won't be much.
Race Summary	Babeswildweekend has had more than his share of chances, but he'll be a decent price while meeting a couple of likely underlaid players.

Mountaineer - Race #7

#1 Romantic Jewel	Flashed brief chasing pace in the debut run, and she has every right to do better with that race under her belt while dropping in class for this.
#5 Ruby's Rush	Doesn't often threaten for major awards, but this isn't a deep bunch and her baseline effort may be enough to land a big share of this.
#2 Roses For Doug	This 20-start maiden looks like one of the ones in here, and she proved a decent fit with the locals in that last run.
Race Summary	Romantic Jewel can show some speed from the fence here, and this easier spot may allow her to produce something better in her second trip to post.

Mountaineer - Race #8

#3 All About Ready	Looks for his fourth win in a row, and he should be able to get a dreamy finishing trip from close range. The rest of this group is full of almost all early burners, so his ability to finish a bit may be the difference.
#6 Springmeier	Has a right to be pretty tough with these, and he draws best of the forward players to prompt the splits from the outside. Wouldn't want too short a number.
#2 Soul of Discretion	He has a mild rating gear that may serve him well if all the pace shows up early here, and he's a danger if he can bring something close to that August form for the new barn.
Race Summary	All About Ready may offer a playable price despite rattling off three in a row, and his running style should serve him well in a race full of speed.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #2

#5 DUCKIES DYNASTY	Found best stride too late at the Meadowlands in fast race.
#4 AMRCANBOOTSCOOTA A	Fell a nose short of four consecutive wins at Yonkers.
#3 MY IDEAL SON	Finished 1-2-3 at this level in September before testing better.
Race Summary	Duckies Dynasty was off the gate at the start, unhurried tracking a lively pace, blocked in the middle half and full of run too late. He should go well in this spot at a fair price. Play a 5-4-ALL trifecta.

The Meadows - Race #5

#3 CHARIOT RACER	Overpowered similar foes in lane, taken to repeat.
#2 ENTRANCED	Rallied behind top one for third, moves outside in.
#8 KINETIC KING	Early position the key for classy 10-year-old.
Race Summary	Chariot Racer flushed out the favorite, tipped 3-wide for the stretch drive and was tons the best in his win two weeks ago at this level. He is handled by top connections, so let’s make him today’s Best Bet.

Northfield Park - Race #1

#7 MJ’S MOJO MISSION	Longshot stab in dreadful field off encouraging qualifier.
#6 PETER PIPER	Made middle move into slow pace but in faster division of split race.
#8 AWAY GOES ROSIE	Just missed after 3-to-5 favorite broke stride early in race.
Race Summary	MJ’s Mojo Mission showed a sign of life in his most recent qualifier, presumably with an equipment change to ‘hopples off.’ He starts for a new barn after two years away but his rivals are a combined 2-for-129. Play a 7-ALL exacta.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

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Gulfstream Park West - Race #5

#4 Rocket Blast	Crushed maiden claimers by 17 lengths in a race that came off the turf; he proved he can get the distance and was on the board in both turf attempts.
#2 Sun Squall	Was third in his last four and was claimed two races back by Arriagada; can be in the mix throughout this.
#8 Maverick Kitten	Was claimed in his latest by the Broome stable and comes in off a third at the same price; broke his maiden two back and has some late energy.
Race Summary	Rocket Blast ran well in his two turf races and can be a strong player on either surface.

Gulfstream Park West - Race #6

#2 The Distractor	Was never challenged in a maiden victory in his only start and wins if he runs back to that one.
#1 Tiger	Was on the board in all four of his races and can be a pace factor; may have to run without the lead, and that could be to his advantage.
#5 Drain the Clock	Drew off to an easy score going shorter and can be part of the pace; probably will get the most play.
Race Summary	The Distractor was very impressive in his only start and while he faces horses that also were sharp, he just might be just too much for them.

Gulfstream Park West - Race #7

#1 Centsless Drama	Has tons of early energy and can lead at every point of this one; won a race four back and was second in his last three. Can dig in under redh-hot Jaramillo, who is hitting at 24 percent and won seven races last week.
#6 What a Beaut	Has been a lot of time vs. good company and comes off a fast-closing second in a state-bred allowance; can close into this pace.
#2 Dance Till Dawn	Improved position last out after winning two straight; can get a tracking position just off the leader and could very well run a big one.
Race Summary	Centsless Drama has good turf-route-front-running energy and has a good chance to lead at every call; due to get back to the winner's circle.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Indiana Downs

Indiana Downs - Race 1	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) 50 Cent Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)
Maiden Special • 1 Mile • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 56 • Purse: $33,000 • Post: 2:05P
FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 121 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. TAPERINEA is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * TAPERINEA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equi base Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
9	TAPERINEA	8/5	9/5

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
9	TAPERINEA	9	8/5	Front-runner	61	55	68.3	52.1	50.1
14	PRIZED CUPCAKE	14	30/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	68.3	31.3	15.8
11	HARLANS PRINCESS	11	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	61	45	39.4	39.4	27.9
12	SHES MY TREASURE	12	30/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	26.3	26.3	13.3
4	TUCKYOURTALEANDRUN	4	4/1	Trailer	57	50	47.6	47.6	39.6
2	SWIFT TEMPLE	2	3/1	Trailer	58	48	47.1	47.1	37.6
6	MISS FORT	6	10/1	Trailer	51	34	32.4	32.4	16.9
5	IMA BARREL RACER	5	12/1	Trailer	0	0	17.1	17.1	1.1
10	MAMBACITA	10	30/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	34.1	34.1	18.6
8	ALLIE MAES REVENGE	8	12/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	31.5	31.5	17.5
7	RHAPSODY IN GREY	7	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	56	51	16.1	16.1	4.1
1	REVS RUN	1	50/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
3	BICKERMENTS	3	50/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: DRAKAINA (30/1) [Jockey: Achard Alex - Trainer: Wittek Karyn].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer Park

Mountaineer Park - Race 2	2nd Half Daily Double $2 Exacta $1 Box $1 Trifecta $.50 Box$1 Superfecta $.20 Box $2 Pick 4 (races 2-5) $.50 Wheel
Claiming $4,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $7,100 • Post: 7:22P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 28 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 (W V A BRED RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * OSVALDO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. STARLIN: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. GRAN GREYFROST: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surf ace. HIGH ESTEEM: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
9	STARLIN	5/2	5/1
3	OSVALDO	7/2	5/1
7	GRAN GREYFROST	6/1	7/1
5	HIGH ESTEEM	5/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	OSVALDO	3	7/2	Stalker	82	72	81.0	72.8	66.8
5	HIGH ESTEEM	5	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	69	71	110.0	40.8	30.8
9	STARLIN	9	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	80	75	63.0	71.8	68.8
6	ONEWAYTICKET	6	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	72	75	56.8	67.0	56.5
7	GRAN GREYFROST	7	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	87	75	47.8	62.6	58.6
1	YENISEY	1	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	70	68	58.1	41.8	26.3
4	MAXXIMUM ENERGY	4	4/1	Alternator/Non-contender	68	67	52.6	58.2	48.2
8	STOP THE PARADE	8	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	74	67	49.8	54.4	41.9
2	PRE FLIGHT	2	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	59	57	39.6	47.6	31.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 62

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD TRAINERS STABLED ON THE GROUNDS WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE AT THE MEET AS OF OCTOBER 20, 2020. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 MY LAST MILLION 7/2
# 7 SHE'S NOT BLUFFING 9/5
# 6 ALL ABOUT BLEU 4/1

MY LAST MILLION has a formidable shot to take this race. Looks decent for the conditions of this competition today, showing solid figs in dirt sprint races as of late. With Gomez getting the mount, watch out for this equine. A solid 77 avg Equibase class rating may give this mare a distinct class edge against this group. SHE'S NOT BLUFFING - Has performed admirably recently in sprint races, posting a nifty 53 avg speed rating. Shows signs of the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 53 speed figure which is one of the most favorable in this group of horses. ALL ABOUT BLEU - Alvarado has been sizzling the last month, winning at a nifty 15 percent clip. The conditioner wheels this horse back quickly to race again.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Emerald Downs - Race #2 - Post: 2:53pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,600 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#1 CELTURIAN (ML=5/1)
#4 FRENCH COAST (ML=9/5)


CELTURIAN - You always have to be on the prowl for revenue generating jockey/handler duos; we have it right here. My partners and I have made bucks playing horses with this type of speed. Follow my advice and do the same. FRENCH COAST - A repeat of that recent performance on Oct 8th where he recorded a speed rating of 69 looks lofty enough to score in this race. A campaigner coming back this rapidly after a solid race is a good sign. Horse has improved at least 2 speed rating points in last two races. I look for that to continue in today's race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 STANLEY RYDER (ML=3/1), #2 INQUISITION (ML=7/2), #7 BLEU MUSKET (ML=6/1),

STANLEY RYDER - I cannot play this confirmed non-winner. Gets the job completed occasionally. Don't feel this pony will make a winning move in today's race. That last speed rating was quite unimpressive when compared with today's class rating. INQUISITION - Hard to bet on any horse to turn things around if there is no wager value to taking the shot. BLEU MUSKET - Garnered a most unsatisfactory speed rating in the last race in a $5,000 Maiden Claiming race on October 14th. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that rating.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #1 CELTURIAN to win if you can get at least 2/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park West

10/28/20, GPW, Race 1, 12.00 ET
10/28/20,GPW,1,5F [Turf] 00:54:04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $17,000 (includes up to $2,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 121 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Claiming Price $12,500, if for $10,500, allowed 2 lbs. (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at Five Furlongs) (Rail at 15 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	4	Ny Beth Getsitdone	4/1	Vasquez M A	Dwoskin Steven	SFE	95	34.74	1.54/$1
097.9391	8	Platinumcents	3/1	Jaramillo E	De La Cerda Armando		95	34.74	1.54/$1
096.5460	9	Flat Out Cool	8/1	Reyes L	Collazo Henry	W	95	34.74	1.54/$1
094.5093	5	Matcha	9/2	Burgos A	Sweezey J. Kent		95	34.74	1.54/$1
094.3077	13	Too Stylish	6/1	Montalvo C	Crichton Rohan	T	95	34.74	1.54/$1
093.9331	6	Seattle Bay	5/1	Montalvo C	Hickey William J.	L	95	34.74	1.54/$1
093.8940	1	Twinkiesandturnips	10/1	Panici L	Bates Larry		95	34.74	1.54/$1
092.4610	11	Nanie's Treasure	30/1	Burgos A	Reardon M. C.		110	33.64	1.43/$1
091.5774	10	Makelele	20/1	Berrios H I	Silva Daniel		110	33.64	1.43/$1
090.4874	3	Drillzilla	20/1	Trejos J	Azpurua. Jr. Eduardo		95	34.74	1.54/$1
090.3769	2	My Little Rose	15/1	Fuentes M	Acker Scott D.		95	34.74	1.54/$1
090.1821	7	Kayla's Tune	8/1	Lopez P	Orseno Joseph F.	J	110	33.64	1.43/$1
085.4134	12	Saucy Tune	15/1	Lebron V	Orseno Joseph F.		95	34.74	1.54/$1

Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 22.22, ROI 1.17/$1
. . . .
100.0000 4 Ny Beth Getsitdone
[Category]Condition
[AllTurf]NotFirstRaceAfter45DaysOff
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	4	Ny Beth Getsitdone	4/1	Vasquez M A	Dwoskin Steven		66	37.88	1.34/$1
099.1281	8	Platinumcents	3/1	Jaramillo E	De La Cerda Armando	F	66	37.88	1.34/$1
098.4732	9	Flat Out Cool	8/1	Reyes L	Collazo Henry	W	25	44.00	1.20/$1
097.3143	5	Matcha	9/2	Burgos A	Sweezey J. Kent	S	66	37.88	1.34/$1
095.8563	1	Twinkiesandturnips	10/1	Panici L	Bates Larry		25	44.00	1.20/$1
095.4951	13	Too Stylish	6/1	Montalvo C	Crichton Rohan	T	25	48.00	1.15/$1
093.4267	10	Makelele	20/1	Berrios H I	Silva Daniel		66	37.88	1.34/$1
093.2816	6	Seattle Bay	5/1	Montalvo C	Hickey William J.	EL	8	62.50	1.78/$1
092.6113	11	Nanie's Treasure	30/1	Burgos A	Reardon M. C.		66	37.88	1.34/$1
091.7970	3	Drillzilla	20/1	Trejos J	Azpurua. Jr. Eduardo		2	100.00	2.00/$1
091.7702	2	My Little Rose	15/1	Fuentes M	Acker Scott D.		8	62.50	1.78/$1
091.3550	7	Kayla's Tune	8/1	Lopez P	Orseno Joseph F.	J	25	44.00	1.20/$1
088.5572	12	Saucy Tune	15/1	Lebron V	Orseno Joseph F.		8	62.50	1.78/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 19.23, ROI 0.53/$1
. . . .
100.0000 4 Ny Beth Getsitdone
[Category]Condition
[AllDirt]HorseAge4UP

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 11 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 79

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE APRIL 28. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 BOLITA BOYZ 5/2
# 7 PEGASUS RED 7/2
# 1 COBH 12/1

I've got to go with BOLITA BOYZ. Overall the speed figs of this equine look very strong in this outing. Risk takers ought to feel comfortable with this pick given Silvera's recent gains at the window. Garnered a sound speed rating in the last race. Can run another good one in this race. PEGASUS RED - With a +20 return on investment, this jock and conditioner combo has produced very strong profits recently for investors. Could best this group of horses based on the speed rating - 76 - of his last affair. COBH - Has been racing solidly and has among the most favorable speed in the race for today's distance. Vazquez has one of the top winning percentages in this group of animals with entries running at this distance and surface.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Zia Park - Race #5 - Post: 1:48pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 56

Rating:

#3 PARADISE N REACH (ML=8/1)
#1 STORM N GOLD (ML=5/1)
#5 NOTHIN BUT CLASS (ML=12/1)


PARADISE N REACH - First-timer has morning drills over the Zia Park strip, which is always a plus. Dominant pedigree lines with this one. Sire's 2YO winning pct is at a 50 pct clip. Always beware the longer priced animal when a trainer has an 'uncoupled' entry in a race. A strong handicapping angle is 1st time Lasix. Marr gives it to this one for this event. With no recent past performance lines, one of the variables I look at are trainer stats, and Marr has a +89 percent ROI clip with first time starters. STORM N GOLD - This trainer has a super ROI with first time starters. Gets help from Marr with the addition of Lasix. NOTHIN BUT CLASS - You always have to be on the watch for revenue generating rider/trainer combos; we have an instance right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 BOSSY BABY (ML=7/2), #7 ZIVA DA'VID (ML=4/1), #2 ALL STEAMED UP (ML=9/2),

BOSSY BABY - This filly recorded a speed figure in her last event which likely isn't good enough in today's race. ZIVA DA'VID - Difficult to invest in any horse to turn things around if there is no large gain to taking the chance. 4/1 is not worth the risk for any thoroughbred in a sprint of 5 1/2 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a sprint race recently. ALL STEAMED UP - Would have to perk up off that third place finish last time out of the box to make an impact here. Will be tough for this entrant to beat this field off of that last speed figure. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class rating, so put her on the questionable challengers list.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #3 PARADISE N REACH to win if we can get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3,5] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,3,5] with [1,3,5] with [1,2,3,5,11] with [1,2,3,5,11] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

Horse pick 10/28

Churchill Downs Race 8
#2 Lake Nimrod $10 wps
$2 exacta box 2-4-5