Thursday 10/29/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Huddle Up Sports

Free Play: Georgia Southern -6' Thursday FB

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Jeff Siegel's National Best Plays - Thursday, Oct. 29, 2020

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October 29, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s National Best Plays for Thursday, October 29, 2020
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Belmont Park – Second race (Post Time: 1:47 ET
12-Another Shot (8-1)
Here’s a wide-open turf sprint for state-bred juveniles that is begging to be won by a price horse. At 8-1 on the morning line, this K. Breen-trained colt qualifies. Sixth of nine in an off-the-turf affair at Saratoga in August, the son of Palace Malice seems sur e to improve with that bit of experience behind him, today’s extra distance, and the switch in surface. The barn has strong stats (24%) with second-timers and its “go-to” rider J. Lezcano picks up the mount, so in a race full of question marks he’s probably worth a bit of a gamble.

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Churchill Downs – Sixth race (Post Time: 3:36 ET
4 – Guided Missile (6-1)
Scored at first asking despite a less than ideal trip and appearing green through the stretch so with that race behind him the son of Tapit has every right to produce a significant forward move while moving up to the first-level allowance ranks and stretching out to two-turns. The promising 3-year-old colt moves to the W. Calhoun barn, has worked sharply since his debut victory and projects to be the controlling speed, assuming his connections want him to be. At 6-1 on the morning line he offers good value in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.

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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

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Belmont Park - Race #1

#2 Allured	Stretch out sprinter is one of just a few in here with any sort of tactical speed, so on the drop, with an aggressive ride, means he could be a Lone F; come and catch the pick.
#1 Fried Rice King	Stiff class dropper didn't run all that poorly when a close 7th in a 50k starter off the claim, so to see him in for 20 is a bit worrisome, at false odds too; trying to beat on top.
#$ Microscope	Deep closer has been in too tough in the NYB N1X ranks, so this group makes sense, though his decided lack of early speed won't play well in the lane; along for a late share.
Race Summary	You won't get rich on th 2 but he seems a bit easier to trust than the 1, who has some bad vibes attached, so play the pick to win and place, while getting some added value by keying him to kick off the early Pk5, especially since Noda can do no wrong these days, and yet this one won't even be favored.

Belmont Park - Race #3

#5 Madera	Speedster was claimed out of a solid debut 3rd for Weaver by Kantarmaci, who is 23% with his claims, and this outside attack post is perfect too; expecting a big run.
#1 Hot Button	Cox charge was a good 2nd on debut on the turf then didn't fire last time, and now he tries dirt, which he's bred for, and the blinks could wake him up too; must-use.
#4 Buyer's Remorse	ML favorite was a flat 4th for 40k last time, after stakes and MSW runs, so you would have thought that run was the wakeup, so why she's 2-1 is a guess; no thanks.
Race Summary	That 5-2 ML on the pick actually seems like value, as the 1 is a question mark on dirt and the 4 could be off-form, while the 5 has a ton of upside for a strong new barn, so play her aggressively to win and place, while getting some added value by keying her in the early {k5/Pk4 as well, since there are three here who will be bet, which means a win will knock plenty of tickets out of both sequences.

Belmont Park - Race #6

#6 Prince of Caps	Stalker was a decent 4th when marooned out wide at the Spa, after a big 2nd in his turf bow, so with just two grass starts, and a better post, he's got plenty of room to improve; look out.
#11 Bischofberger	Brown firster will get bet hard, especially with Irad here, but they paid 475k for this one and he's in for 40k on debut, which isn't a good sign, not to mention this post won't help; tread lightly.
#1 Souper Energizer	MSW dropper was chasing and tiring going short out of town, so he may clear here, though lasting going shorter hasn't exactly been his forte, which makes this trip a bit dicey; exotics appeal.
Race Summary	There's a lot to like about the pick, most notably the fact he drew much better and should be a decent price, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially to late Pk5, and to kick off the late Pk4 as well, as he gets a lot of positives here, while catching a field there for the taking.

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Laurel Park - Race #5

#9 Hey Babe	Even sort of go in the debut try, but she's bred to have some upside off that race for a barn that is usually tough. 8/1 ML offering would seem like a fair gamble.
#11 Momentita	Led in the lane with similar here in the debut before heading to Belmont where she faded late. She should appreciate the move back in with the local company, but I wouldn't be excited about too short a price from the wide draw.
#3 Jungle Bride	Bred up and down for a two-turn turf test, but the barn doesn't start many around two turns on the grass at first asking, and they're 0-for-3 with the ones they have tried in the last three years.
Race Summary	Hey Babe is probably better than she showed in the debut effort, and the price should be right to take the guess that she's going to show up with something improved. Momentita is the one to beat but feels somewhat dicey.

Laurel Park - Race #6

#10 Brutus	Draws well to track the splits from the outside, and he's probably a bit better when running from a bit off the pace rather than on the lead like he was in his last local try.
#7 Divine Interventio	Drops sharply out of stakes company for this, and he was an easy winner at this trip with $12.5k company a few starts back. Should be tough.
#5 Moti	Dropper looks like he may be able to clunk along late and pass some horses for a slice of this. Local record is spotty.
Race Summary	Brutus would be appealing at a price near his 6/1 ML number, as he'll get a really good run of things from close range and ran well at this trip locally two starts back.

Laurel Park - Race #7

#3 Fair Catch	He has been perfect in two turf sprints, and he earned the hike to this kind of spot off the romping run against claiming company last out. Big chance on the rise.
#9 Railmaster	Has been in with some pretty good groups and the running lines fit, but his 1-for-10 local record gives me pause at a mild price.
#1 Quarky	Think things might get a bit tricky for him from the inside, but his best stuff keeps him in the mix with these if he doesn't get burned out by other pressing speed outside of him.
Race Summary	Fair Catch should get another perfect pressing trip as he tries much deeper waters after running off the screen with cheaper last time out.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #5

#1 GUARD YOUR HEARTS	Game front-end try on class hike, moves outside in.
#2 CAJOLE HANOVER	Overcame equipment issues two back, broke stride in latest.
#3 SWANS HONEY	Wired the field in race against ‘Hearts’ two starts ago.
Race Summary	Guard Your Hearts stepped up to this level, offered resistance to the 4-to-5 and 6-to-5 favorites before he tired in the stretch. He draws the rail in an attempt to upstage a series of in-the-money finishes.

Dayton Raceway - Race #3

#9 SASSY LADY ART	Forced to move early, overhauled by 1-to-5 choice, meets woeful bunch.
#4 BOMBECK	Meets elders, not close of late, Page sticks on a double call.
#8 FALLA ME FALLA ME	Bid first-over into honest fractions but proved no factor.
Race Summary	Sassy Lady Art was flushed out before the half-mile marker, didn’t clear the 35-1 pace setter until the final turn, then gave way in the stretch as the 1-to-5 favorite pulled away. She starts from post 9 again but could win with a similar-type move against eight rivals who are a combined 10-for-380.

Hoosier Park - Race #1

#5 MY LITTLE BUDDY	Chased winner, held third, could be the target in here.
#1 BLISSFUL SHORE	Passed by the fave two back, improved speed figure in faster follow-up race.
#10 SEAL O’NEILL	Rallied for minor awards in last pair, starts from second tier.
Race Summary	My Little Buddy chased the fleet-footed favorite through a :55.3 opening half mile and got caught late for the runner-up spot. He lands in an ideal pace-controlling spot in lieu of his first victory. Play 5-1 and 5-10 exactas.

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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

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Gulfstream Park West - Race #3

#5 Zap Daddy	Was along for second in his first try over the GPW turf and won when Gracida claimed him last year at Belmont; his runner-up finish in his second off a year-long layoff was a good sign.
#8 Zulu	Accomplished veteran was unplaced in the Rich Lee here and drops back to his lowest level; has an impressive late move when he fires.
#10 Souper Jaguar	Gets tough when he's on the front end and that will probably be the strategy here; will likely sent from the outside and could stay for a piece of it.
Race Summary	Zap Daddy's second off a long vacation was a big improvement from his first and continued steps in the right direction and make him a winner at this level.

Gulfstream Park West - Race #7

#1 Over the Channel	Finished strongly for wins in his last two and his just about a foot or two away from three in a row; has won 5 of 11 and gets Paco Lopez aboard for his return.
#2 Second Mate	Has been in tough races and was fifth in the Sunshine Millions Turf in January; he's been off since them and has a long list of good workouts for Maker.
#5 Stirling Drive	Was third two back in a fast race and followed with a closing fourth in the Mr Steele Stakes last out; will be makes up ground in the final furlong.
Race Summary	Over the Channel is on a roll and has the post and tactical speed to be a strong player; can get the jump on capable closers and will dig in at the end.

Gulfstream Park West - Race #8

#4 Starship Apollo	Has been steady in lately and was a fast-closing third in his latest. At 7 years old he's been claimed in his last four races and in seven of his last 10. Has been at higher levels and has what it takes to rally against these.
#1 Northern	Has good speed and will be a factor along the rail; won the last time he was at this level (three races back) and could be tough to catch.
#3 French Quarter	Is a 9 year old that still likes to get it done, having won two races back and was on the board (and was claimed) in his last three. Like Starship Apollo he's changed barns in seven of his last 10 and is a solid contender for this one.
Race Summary	Starship Apollo will get a rapid pace in front of him and that's the way he likes it; can close rapidly.

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Tech Trends - Week 9
Bruce Marshall

Week 9 of the College Football season kicks off on Thursday, October 29 and we've identified betting trends and angles for key matchups between FBS and FCS matchups.

We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Thursday, Oct. 29

SOUTH ALABAMA at GEORGIA SOUTHERN (ESPN, 7:30 p.m.)

After losing and failing to cover five straight vs. GSU, USA at least covered in LY’s close 20-17 loss.
Eagle margin of win was 32.4 pg in previous five series wins.
Jags on 10-3 spread uptick since mid 2019.
GSU only 2-5 last seven as Belt chalk.

Tech Edge: USA, based on recent trends.

COLORADO STATE at FRESNO STATE (CBSSN, 10:00 p.m.)

Addazio was 14-4-1 vs. line as dog the past three years at BC, and Rams won for Bobo as dog at Fresno LY.
Bulldogs tailed off to 1-4-1 vs. line at home in Tedford final season a year ago and began 2020 with home loss to Hawaii in DeBoer debut.

Tech Edge: CSU, especially if dog, based on Addazio trends.

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103S ALABAMA -104 GA SOUTHERN
S ALABAMA is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) vs above avg teams (51-60%) since 1992.

157COLORADO ST -158 FRESNO ST
FRESNO ST is 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.

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NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 9

Thursday, October 29

South Alabama @ Georgia Southern

Game 103-104
October 29, 2020 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
South Alabama
70.237
Georgia Southern
73.745
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Georgia Southern
by 3 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Georgia Southern
by 5 1/2
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
South Alabama
(+5 1/2); Under

Colorado State @ Fresno State

Game 157-158
October 29, 2020 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Colorado State
81.594
Fresno State
70.453
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Colorado State
by 11
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Colorado State
by 1 1/2
58
Dunkel Pick:
Colorado State
(-1 1/2); Under

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NCAAF
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 29

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S ALABAMA (3 - 2) at GA SOUTHERN (3 - 2) - 10/29/2020, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
GA SOUTHERN is 1-1 against the spread versus S ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
GA SOUTHERN is 2-0 straight up against S ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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COLORADO ST (0 - 0) at FRESNO ST (0 - 1) - 10/29/2020, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO ST is 1-0 against the spread versus FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
COLORADO ST is 1-0 straight up against FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NCAAF

Week 9

Trend Report

Thursday, October 29

South Alabama @ Georgia Southern
South Alabama
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of South Alabama's last 7 games on the road
South Alabama is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Georgia Southern
Georgia Southern is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing South Alabama
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Georgia Southern's last 7 games

Colorado State @ Fresno State
Colorado State
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Colorado State's last 8 games
Colorado State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Fresno State
Fresno State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Fresno State's last 5 games at home
Fresno State is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games at home

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NCAAF

Week 9

Thursday’s games

South Alabama (3-2) @ Georgia Southern (3-2)
— South Alabama scored 30+ points in its wins, 24-10 in losses.
— Jaguars won their only road games, 32-21 (+13) at Southern Miss.
— USA has 8 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— Jaguars have 66 returning starts on the offensive line.
— South Alabama is playing two QB’s.
— Jaguars are 6-7 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.

— Georgia Southern split its four I-A games; they beat two stiffs at home.
— Eagles were held to 18-14 points in their two losses.
— Georgia Southern has 8 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— Eagles have 90 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Georgia Southern has a senior QB with 39 career starts.
— Eagles are 7-1 ATS in last eight games as a home favorite.

— Georgia Southern won last six series games (5-1 ATS)
— South Alabama lost its last three visits here, by an average of 52-10.

Colorado State (0-0) @ Fresno State (0-1)
— This is the season opener for Colorado State.
— Colorado State has 7 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— Rams have 50 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Colorado State has a senior QB with 10 starts.
— Rams are 9-5 ATS in last 14 games as a road favorite.

— Fresno allowed 323 rushing yards in LW’s 34-19 home loss to Hawai’i.
— Fresno has 8 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— Bulldogs have 64 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Fresno has a junior QB who used to be a backup at Washington; LW was his first college start.
— Fresno is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games as a home underdog.

— Colorado State won six of last seven series games.
— Underdogs covered four of last six series games.
— Rams won last three visits to Fresno, by 10-3-12 points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Colorado State vs. Fresno State Odds
Joe Nelson

The Mountain West opened up its season last week and the conference will be in the spotlight Thursday night.

Colorado State visits Fresno State to start off the next college football weekend in a pairing of teams with new head coaches this season.

Here is a look at this week’s Thursday late night game between the Rams and Bulldogs.

BETTING RESOURCES

Week 9 Matchup: Mountain West Conference
Venue: Bulldog Stadium
Location: Fresno, California
Date: Thursday, October 29, 2020
Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
TV: CBSSN

Colorado State-Fresno State Betting Odds

Spread: Colorado State -1.5
Money-Line: Colorado State -125 Fresno State +105
Total: 59

Fresno State will be looking to bounce back on Thursday after losing to Hawaii 34-19 in its opener last week. (AP)

How to Handicap Colorado State-Fresno State

The Bulldogs were West division champions in 2017 and 2018 and won the Mountain West title in 2018. Last season the team slipped to 4-8 after going a combined 22-6 the prior two seasons.

Last Saturday, Fresno State hosted Hawai’i to open the season and wound up with a 34-19 defeat. It was a competitive game much of the way with Hawai’i up 17-13 at halftime and Fresno State within eight twice in the second half before a late Warriors touchdown put the game away.

Fresno State lost the yardage battle 552-409 and the turnover battle 4-1. It was the first game for Hawai’i under Todd Graham and the Warriors surprised with 53 rushing attempts for 323 yards on the ground. Playing from behind much of the way, Fresno State leaned on Jake Haener in the passing game, connecting for some big plays with 289 yards on only 17 completions but with three interceptions.

Colorado State didn’t play last week as the opener with New Mexico was called off with Covid-19 issues on New Mexico’s side. There are no plans to reschedule that game and the Rams will now open on the road a week later coming off a 4-8 2019 season. After a 1-5 start the Rams did win three games in a row in the conference season last year before losing the final three games in mostly competitive results.

Last season Colorado State finished only -14 in MWC scoring differential despite a 3-5 record, likewise Fresno State finished 2-6 while only -17 in scoring as both teams have some positive indicators for improvement in 2020.

Coaching Changes

Colorado State hired longtime Georgia assistant Mike Bobo ahead of the 2015 season and after three straight 7-5 regular seasons concluding with bowl losses the Rams turned in back-to-back losing seasons in 2018 and 2019.

Bobo missed some time ahead of the 2019 season with health issues and was ultimately fired after the Rams finished 4-8 last season. He completed five years at 28-35 including 20-20 in conference play as the Rams didn’t approach the success Jim McElwain had in 2013 and 2014.

The Rams wound up hiring Steve Addazio to take over the program last winter, shortly after Addazio was somewhat surprisingly released by Boston College. With geographical challenges in the ACC Addazio went 44-44 over seven seasons with the Eagles and despite a 22-34 overall ACC mark, his teams were at least 4-4 five times and made bowl games six of his seven seasons.

He was unemployed just over a week even though his ties and coaching history has been exclusively on the east coast. Long-time assistant Chuck Heater is his defensive coordinator with Heater an assistant at Colorado State for two seasons and at Colorado for six seasons in the 1990s, while most recently an assistant at Florida last season. Joey Lynch is the new offensive coordinator after climbing the ranks as an assistant at Ball State the past decade.

Fresno State also is in its first season with a new head coach as Jeff Tedford’s second stint at Fresno State ended after three seasons as he stepped down citing health reasons. Tedford revived the program with an incredible turnaround from inheriting a team that went 1-11 in 2016 to 10-4 in 2017. His offensive coordinator in 2017 and 2018 was Kalen DeBoer, who was brought back to Fresno with the opening last winter.

DeBoer was a head coach at NAIA Sioux Falls from 2005-2009, going 67-3 with three NAIA Championships. He jumped up as a coordinator at FCS Southern Illinois and then to FBS at Eastern Michigan before joining Tedford in Fresno. Last season he was lured away to be the OC and QB Coach at Indiana where the Hoosiers went 8-5 and were the second most productive offense in the Big Ten averaging 444 yards per game.

Betting Analysis – Rams

2019: 4-8 S/U, 6-6 ATS, 4/8 O/U

The first game of the season can offer an opportunity for mistakes but it also can be an advantage, particularly for a team in a coaching change.

There isn’t film on Colorado State right now under Addazio as the Rams weren’t able to play last week in the scheduled opener vs. New Mexico, a more favorable matchup where Addazio’s team may have been able to work out some kinks. Addazio was 6-1 S/U and 3-3-1 ATS in season openers at Boston College including a notable upset hosting Virginia Tech to open last season.

Last season Boston College rushed for nearly 3,300 yards on 5.0 yards per carry, rushing more than twice as often as they passed. Addazio teams have always preferred to run but a quarterback injury plus having NFL draft pick A.J. Dillon in the backfield likely led to a greater tilt to the ground in 2019.

One can assume Patrick O’Brien will be starting at quarterback as the incumbent that posted adequate numbers last season after now South Carolina quarterback Collin Hill was injured. Addazio hasn’t made that official however as Temple transfer Todd Centeio joined the team this summer. Last year’s top rusher Mavin Kinsey has graduated but senior Marcus McElroy returns and should be in line to lead the running game.

Colorado State and Boston College both struggled with run defense last season ranking 102nd and 93rd respectively on a per carry basis as that is an area where Fresno State was stronger last season. Addazio’s Boston College defense allowed 6.3 yards per play last season for 107th nationally though having to play both Clemson and Notre Dame on the road contributed heavily to those results.

Betting Analysis - Bulldogs

2019: 4-8 S/U, 4-7-1 ATS, 8/4 O/U
2020: 0-1 S/U, 0-1 ATS, 0/1 O/U

Expectations are high for the Fresno State offense given how successful the team was with DeBoer in 2017 and 2018 and the big numbers that he produced in a breakthrough season for Indiana last year. The start of last week’s game couldn’t have gone better as Hawai’i fumbled on the opening kickoff and five plays later the Bulldogs reached the end zone, including Haener delivering a big play on 3rd-and-13 to avoid having to force a long field goal try. Fresno State had turnovers on the next two possessions before uneven results the rest of the way as Hawai’i eventually pulled away.

Ronnie Rivers led Fresno State with 79 rushing yards but the Bulldogs gained just 3.2 yards per rush and were outrushed 323-120 by Hawai’i. Haener has decent mobility and rushed 13 times last week as the Washington transfer took his first snaps since a few token appearances for the Huskies in 2018. Marcus McMaryion had terrific results for Fresno State in 2017 and 2018 before the production slipped last season under senior Jorge Reyna.

Rivers was the team’s leading rusher in 2019 with 899 yards while averaging 5.1 yards per carry and reaching the end zone 13 times. Rivers was also the team’s second leading receiver last season, only four catches behind top receiver Zane Pope, who didn’t play last week and might be out for a few more weeks to take a toll on the passing game options for the Bulldogs.

Fresno State was the top defensive scoring team by a wide margin in the MWC in both 2017 and 2018 before allowing 255 points in 2019, 168 more points than the season before. The defensive coordinator this season is William Inge who followed DeBoer after serving as the special teams coordinator and a linebackers coach at Indiana for the past seven seasons.

Head-to-Head

Colorado State leads this series 10-5 with a 9-6 ATS mark since 1992.

Last year’s meeting was the first between these teams since 2016 and Colorado State has won six of the past seven with a 5-2 ATS mark going back to 2003.

Fresno State has lost three straight home meetings between these teams, last winning in Fresno in 2002.

These teams also met in bowl action in 2008 with a narrow New Mexico Bowl win for Colorado State.

Last Season: Colorado State (+13.5) 41 at Fresno State 31

These teams met in late October with Fresno State a nearly two-touchdown favorite at home.

Coming off a pair of division titles the Bulldogs were 3-3 but the losses included an eight-point loss at USC and a double-overtime loss to Minnesota.

Colorado State was just 2-5 at the time with several lopsided losses but they had two weeks in-between games following a win at New Mexico.

Colorado State jumped out to a 14-0 lead but Fresno State managed to tie the game early in the third quarter and went into the fourth quarter with a 28-24 lead. The game would be tied 31-31 a few minutes into the fourth before Colorado State seemed to blow its chance at the upset with an interception in the end zone.

The Rams defense got the ball right back with its own interception a few plays later however, handing the offense a short field. Colorado State cashed in with a touchdown and then after stopping Fresno State on downs they sealed the win with a late field goal to win 41-31. Colorado State posted a 500-388 yardage advantage with most of that edge coming in the passing game.

Notable Betting Trends

Colorado State Rams

-- Colorado State is on a 23-13 ATS run in road games since 2013 including a 3-2 ATS mark with two S/U wins last season.

-- At Boston College, Addazio was also 22-13-1 ATS on the road for remarkably similar numbers in those time frames.

-- Also under the head coach, BC was 4-2 ATS on the road last season with three S/U wins.

Fresno State Bulldogs

-- Fresno State is 14-11 S/U and 14-9-1 ATS at home since 2016 even while riding a current 1-7-1 ATS run in home games going back to November 2018.

-- Fresno State had a 13-2 ATS run at home from 2016 through October 2018.

-- Fresno State hasn’t been a home underdog since being +3 early last season vs. Minnesota, a line that certainly looked out of place by season’s end, though the Bulldogs lost by only three in a wild finish in a double-overtime game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting Recap - Week 7
Joe Williams

Overall Notes



The largest underdogs to win straight up

Cardinals (+3.5, ML +160) vs. Seahawks, 37-34 (OT)
49ers (+3, ML +140) at Patriots, 33-6

The largest favorites to cover

Chargers (-7.5) vs. Jaguars, 39-29
Chiefs (-7) at Broncos, 43-16

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Pittsburgh Steelers-Tennessee Titans battle certainly lived up to the hype. It was an AFC battle of unbeatens, and at first it looked like it was going to be a blowout, Pittsburgh style. The Steelers fired out to a 14-0 lead, and they held a 24-7 advantage at the break. They tacked on a 30-yard Chris Boswell field goal early in the third quarter to make it 27-7, but that's when the Steelers bogged down on offense and were unable to produce anymore offense.

The Titans made a furious comeback. WR A.J. Brown struck 50 seconds after Boswell's field goal for a 73-yard touchdown, cutting the lead to 27-14. A field goal from Stephen Gostkowski with 2:55 left in the third from 51 yards out made it 27-17 after 45 minutes. Over (51) bettors looked to be in good shape heading into the fourth quarter, and Titans (+1, ML +105) side bettors were perking up as well. With 10:13 to go in regulation, Derrick Henry punched one in from 1-yard out to make it 27-24. However, much to the dismay of over bettors, there was no more scoring in the remainder of the game. Gostkowski misfired on a 45-yard field goal attempt with 19 seconds remaining, which would have inched the total over the line. In addition, moneyline bettors and side bettors for the Titans must've felt like they were losing twice. A trip to overtime could have potentially changed the day.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The Detroit Lions-Atlanta Falcons game was a memorable one, and not many people would've expected that going in. It was 14-13 after three quarters, and while it was close, it wasn't terribly exciting. Then the fourth quarter took place.

If you're a Falcons (-1) side bettor, you're absolutely sick about this result. The Lions ended up winning 23-22 with a touchdown with zeroes on the clock, stunning Atlanta. However, that would be bad enough on a normal day under normal circumstances, but this situation should have never come to be.

With 1:04 remaining in regulation, the Falcons picked up a key first down, positioning themselves for a chip-shot, game-winning field goal, which would have made it 17-16. The Lions were out of timeouts, so they allowed Todd Gurley to score from 10 yards out. He remembered at the last second that he wasn't supposed to score, but couldn't stop his momentum and broke the plane. That made it 20-16, and they tacked on a two-point conversion to go ahead by six. However, if they would have just taken a knee, they could have run the clock down and left no time after the field goal. Matthew Stafford and company took advantage.

The Lions drove the field, tying it with no time left on a strike from Stafford to T.J. Hockenson from 11 yards out. All that was needed was a Matt Prater extra point, and he stuck it, giving Detroit a miraculous 23-22 victory.

Total Recall

The lowest totals on the board on the Sunday slate were the San Francisco 49ers-New England Patriots (44.5) game, followed by the Dallas Cowboys-Washington Football Team (45) contests.

The Patriots were never able to get untracked, as the 49ers fired out to a 23-3 lead at halftime, and they never looked back. Cam Newton was mistake-prone, and the New England offense could only produce two field goals. The 49ers picked up the 33-6 road victory, and 'over' bettors were a little disappointed with just three points in the fourth quarter.

In the Cowboys game, QB Andy Dalton was knocked out of the game due to a head/neck injury, so seventh-round draft pick QB Ben DiNucci was thrust into action. The Cowboys offense was dumbed down even more, and the second half resembled a preseason game for the Cowboys. Sadly, they're still only a half-game back of the first-place Philadelphia Eagles with a trip to Lincoln Financial Field on the slate for Week 8. Anyway, the Cowboys mustered just three points, and the Washington offense posted a total of 22 points, as the 'under' easily cashed.

The highest number on the board was Seattle Seahawks-Arizona Cardinals (56) battle. This NFC West showdown didn't disappoint. The teams combined for 71 points, and only the third quarter saw fewer than 17 points. QBs Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray put on a show for the national audience, and the total was the first over of the season for the Cardinals against five under results. Arizona entered the day as the only NFL team without an over.

In the two primetime games, the over and under split 1-1, with the Monday night game between the Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams still pending.

So far this season the under is 13-9 (59.1%) across 22 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 8

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Falcons keep finding new ways to lose. They have blown fourth-quarter leads against the Cowboys, Bears and Lions, and could easily be 4-3 instead of 1-6. That's how close the margin of error is in the NFL. They get a rematch with the Panthers on Thursday. They fell 23-16 at home against Carolina, losing outright as 2.5-point favorites in a game which Julio Jones missed due to injury. The under has cashed in three of the past four outings for Atlanta, including that first meeting with the Panthers. Carolina enters the Week 7 game at New Orleans with a 4-0 under streak before hitting the over against the Saints. Carolina covered, too, and they're now 4-1 ATS in their past five overall.

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Chiefs opened as 21-point favorites against the Jets in the 'Le'Veon Bell Bowl'. Dating back to the 2003 NFL season, we've had just five teams favored by 21 or more points. Last season the Miami Dolphins went to Dallas as 22-point underdogs, and the Cowboys covered the number, 31-6. However, since the start of the 2003 campaign, favorites of 20 or more points are 1-3 ATS. New York heads into this one just 1-5 ATS in the past six on the road, 1-5 ATS in the past six as an underdog and 5-17-1 ATS in the past 23 on a grass surface. On the flip side, the Chiefs are 3-0-1 ATS in the pat four against losing teams, and they're 8-1-1 ATS in the past 10 at home. They're also 12-3-1 ATS in the past 16 as a favorite, too. The game has since moved down to 20.5, so early bettors are actually...gulp...trusting the Jets?

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The unbeaten Steelers put their unblemished record on the line against the Ravens in a battle for AFC North supremacy. Not only are the Steelers 6-0 SU, but they have covered four in a row, and five of six overall. Baltimore will be coming off a bye, so they'll be well rested and any injured players will have gotten over their early-season bumps and bruises. While the Ravens enter on a three-game winning streak, and they're 5-1 SU, Baltimore is just 1-3 ATS across the past four. The Ravens swept the Steelers last season, winning 26-23 in overtime in Pittsburgh in Week 5, while topping the Steelers 28-10 in the regular-season finale. Pittsburgh did win in Baltimore as recently as Nov. 4, 2018.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Buccaneers travel to meet the Giants in a Monday Night battle. It's QB Tom Brady against his Super Bowl nemesis, but these G-Men aren't the same ones he faced for all the marbles. And he is wearing new threads now, too. Still, you know that will be the storyline, as the TV people need something to put lipstick on this pig. Tampa rolled over Las Vegas on the road, winning 45-20 as 3.5-point favorites, the second consecutive blowout win. Just last week they polished off the Green Bay Packers by a 38-10 score. The Bucs offense has posted 31, 28, 38, 19, 38 and 45 in the past six outings, as Brady now looks comfortable, and the Patriots are probably wishing him back right about now.