Monday 11/2/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-02-2020, 05:14 AM

Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

November 2, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Woodbine Mohawk Park has an 11-race card to start the week. The 0.20 Late Pick 4 begins in Race 8 and that sequence will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 8

3-Conquest As (8-1)-Even effort in first local start but has faced tough company out East. Came the back half in 56.2 in an acclimating mile. Could be overlooked at the windows and has won 8 of 16 lifetime starts.
5-HP Bruxelles (8-1)-Started very slowly in last and that sealed his fate but did go 55.3 in the 2nd half. Filion should be able to duck early and could get sucked around to roll by late at a solid price.
6-Delilah Seelster (7/2)-In the last four races, has started from the nine hole twice and then post 8 twice. On 10/16 raced against a winner of last 3 starts, now Henry is back in the bike and should be a major player.

Race 9

3-Oney Hall (3-1)-Will respect chances of this razor sharp winner of last three, but this will be a more difficult challenge. Steps up and could win but won't offer any value if bet hard again.
5-Im The Muscle (9/2)-Steps-up off a nice win from the 7 hole and will need another top try. But this is a good post draw and Roy could get the jump on #9, who is dropping.
9-Mass Fortune K (7/2)-Has been in the hunt versus Pfrd company but hasn't been good enough to win in the last 2 months. MacDonald will likely be aggressive so the start will be key. Should be a major player with a smooth trip.

Race 10

3-Southwind Avenger (4-1)-Four-year-old has taken a step back this year and but has battled some tough company out East. Lands in the Aucielo barn and does have 3 wins in 16 starts here. Has banked >$300K at Wbsb and will respect chances in a race without a standout.
4-Steuben Hanover (5/2)-Finished 3rd in last 2 starts and now drops. Loses regular pilot in McClure who was in Indiana over the weekend. Young steered last week and just missed versus better from post 9. Should be a short price.
5-Superlative (7/2)-Raced well from the 2nd tier in last and fits at this level. Likes to come off cover and the pace could be lively so best to not overlook.
8-Treasured Tee (6-1)-Raced from the back versus better in last and now drops to a better spot. McNair won with this Moreau trainee in NW5k on 10/16. Should be out and going off the gate tonight. Does have enough gate speed to get a close-up seat and should be a square price.

Race 11

2-Beachin Lindy (8-1)-Drops after 2 straight starts from post 9. 0-18 record in 2020 doesn't inspire much confidence but this is a soft spot. Will look for a good price in a race with many who are camera shy. This is the bottom class and the entire field has a total of 15 wins this year.
3-Westslucky Terror (6-1)-Drops after rolling hard in the 2nd half to just miss last week and has a good chance to pick-up 2nd win of the year. Using, and leaving the program chalk who starts in the 2nd tier off the ticket.

0.20 Late Pick 4

3,5,6/3,5,9/3,4,5,8/2,3
Total Bet=$14.40

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-02-2020, 05:15 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Parx Racing - Race #1

#3 Boom Boom Girl	MSW dropper has been facing much better on turf lately, has some solid dirt form to fall back on, and should be tracking a contested pace; look out.
#2 Cousin Basil	ML favorite adds blinkers and has the best dirt form here, but the rail will be winging too, which won't help either gal's chances late; may come unglued.
#7 English Charmer	Lightly raced miss isn't bred for the main but her running style should play here, and she too drops out of the MSW ranks; could rally for a piece late.
Race Summary	You won't get rich on the 3 but she should be favored, so play her aggressively to win and place if you can get that 2-1 ML, though you can key her to kick off the early Pk4 and guarantee some value, as she looks to be getting all the best of it here.

Parx Racing - Race #4

#11 Release Me	Pace player goes off the claim for Lake, a big 19% move, and this miss wasn't bad for a low percentage Cobb barn, so she could move way up here; expecting a big run.
#10 Scamper Along	Versatile miss came from well back last time after being ornery at the gate, so if she has her mind on running today she's going to be right there with these; huge chance.
#12 Symphony of Love	Uninspiring and odd ML favorite is 18-0-4-3, so you know her MO, and she comes out of two slow runs too, so anything close to 3-1 makes no sense; underneath, as always.
Race Summary	There's a lot to like about the 11, and she's lightly raced too, so there's plenty of upside here as well, so play her aggressively to win and place, and make sure to use her number to end the early Pk4 as well, as she won't have to improve much to win as it is, but it's very likely she does for a sharp new barn.

Parx Racing - Race #9

#10 Isabella Smile	Price player has a closing style in a race with a ton of speed, has been running well of late, and this wide draw is the spot to be over the track; mows them all down.
#7 Precious	The gal to beat will get first run on the pick, and she's done some good things in just four career starts, though she still may get fried chasing the splits; second-best.
#2 Chubofftheoldblock	Stretch runner is light on figures and didn't fire last time, but is another with the right running style to get a piece, though it will likely be a minor one; will be rolling late.
Race Summary	Pace makes the race and there's a ton of it here to really flatter the 10, so play her in all the slots, and especially in the late Pk4 as well, as she's going to be hitting her best stride just as the pace begins to takes its toll on the front runners.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-02-2020, 05:17 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mountaineer - Race #1

#8 Skinnersburg	Lightly raced runner has been out just twice and was a good 2nd last time, and now meets a very weak group.
#4 Executive Prize	ML Longshot has run well in two straight, and actually fits with this group on paper, so he could spice up your exotics.
#5 Ed	Firster has some sharp works and won't have to be a star to have a big say, but a 1-for-21 barn doesn't add to the appeal.
Race Summary	Skinnersburg won't be a maiden for long, and this is the type of group that he looks to have at his mercy, especially if Ed isn't a runner.

Mountaineer - Race #5

#3 Swamp Ruler	Tactical runner gets local ace Colon, comes out of a key race, and should be sitting just off an abundance of early speed.
#4 Cowboy Rusty	The best of the speed will be wining early, but there's pace on both sides, so lasting to the line might be a tall ask.
#8 Risky Forest	Newcomer made the front then tired last time but should be stalking here, though 5-2 over a track he's never tried seems dicey.
Race Summary	Swamp Ruler should sit the trip, while Cowboy Rusty might be pace compromised, which could be all the former needs to secure his first win of the year.

Mountaineer - Race #6

#5 Windsor Court	Stretch out sprinter was 3-1 on debut in the slop and didn't run an inch, but Colon sticks, and this one can make amends on a fast track.
#10 Thirst for Quality	MSW dropper will like this reduced group, and his best wins this, but this brutally bad post won't do him any favors.
#1 No U Turn	ML favorite was a dreadful 5th last time and seems to be going the wrong way, so taking an underlaid price doesn't make sense.
Race Summary	Windsor Court should be a bettable price to string along after his debut, and clearly they liked him that day, so if the track is fast he's worth one more play before jumping ship.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-02-2020, 05:47 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Pocono Downs - Race #1

#1 REDHOT ROMEO	Gets class relief, projects good trip from rail, today’s Best Bet.
#7 CARMEN’S BEST	Leads for as far as he goes in bid for 54th lifetime victory.
#6 SPRINGBRIDGE POND	Failed as odds-on favorite in three-peat attempt at this level.
Race Summary	Redhot Romeo won for a higher tag two starts back at 14-1 and new pilot could seek a pocket trip from the rail. He’s ideally spotted to win again, so play 1-6 and 1-7 exactas.

Pocono Downs - Race #5

#2 BRUTAL STORM	Saved ground, closed with a rush to earn his top recent speed figure.
#7 BELLA AVA	Close-up at stretch call the last five times she stayed flat, but burned money each time.
#3 CHOCO CHARLIE	Trotted evenly after a month away, could land minor awards at big price.
Race Summary	Brutal Storm stepped up in class after back-to-back seconds at Monticello and gave a good account of himself. He angled off the rail late on the final turn and finished with good energy behind a wall of horses in deep stretch. Play 2-3 and 2-7 exactas.

Dover Downs - Race #4

#8 JUST SAY JOE	Just say ‘Go’ and hope he can last after chasing 1-to-9 fave last week.
#2 BILLY BE GOOD	Paced evenly against odds-on winner two back, then drew post 8.
#1 CAN’T GET RIGHT	Benefitted from three breakers two starts ago, will be underlay on class drop.
Race Summary	Just Say Joe has enough speed to clear from post 8 and go a long way against rivals who are a combined 52/1-0-7 this year. Play a 1-2-8 exacta box.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-02-2020, 05:47 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Indiana Grand - Race #1

#1 Golden Command	Was third in her last two tries at this level and then stepped one rung above to no avail last out; returns to N3L company and can make a solid inside run.
#3 Super Jen	Ran an even fourth in a stakes race last out in her first since January; won a state-bred stakes race last year and can improve on her latest.
#8 Serena Beck	Tired going longer last out and can be tough in a return to a sprint. Should be moving well late in the game.
Race Summary	Golden Command has enough speed to stay in range and should be in good position for a strong late run.

Indiana Grand - Race #5

#2 Only Reward's	Goes for his fourth straight win and fifth in her last six starts; doesn't need the lead to win and can continue to be successful in an outstanding sophomore season.
#7 Such Great Heights	Was up in time at Thistledown and won at Indiana Grand three races back; can be in a good position for an effective run.
#6 Midnight Karma	Makes her first start since January and has run against much better. Drops to her lowest level and doesn't have much of a published work tab but her class might be enough.
Race Summary	Only Reward's is a win machine and can benefit from an inside run; can respond when called upon and gets hot-riding Parker aboard.

Indiana Grand - Race #10

#1 Seminole Justice	Showed speed against much better and is favorably placed today; super tough on this drop.
#4 Custers Last Stand	Back to the main track after an unsuccessful attempt on the turf; can bring the late heat.
#3 Tuffer Than Tuff	Made the fractions and just missed by a head at this level last out; very quick and can be a factor throughout.
Race Summary	Seminole Justice out of fast allowance races and likely will be the one to catch here; expect a big effort.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-02-2020, 10:40 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Indiana Downs

Indiana Downs - Race 1	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) 50 Cent Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)
Claiming $10,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 75 • Purse: $13,000 • Post: 2:05P
(PLUS UP TO 40% INDIANA STATE BRED SUPPLEMENT) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 29 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000 (INDIANA BRED LIFETIME CONDITIONAL CLAIMING RACES FOR $10,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Trailer. ITASCA is the Lone Trailer of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * MOON DOG SPOT: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. A RABIAN STORY: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. DEACON: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. MY MAN BECKETT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 day s. UGO: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
6	MOON DOG SPOT	9/2	6/1
3	ARABIAN STORY	8/1	6/1
7	DEACON	9/2	7/1
2	MY MAN BECKETT	5/2	8/1
1	UGO	10/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	MOON DOG SPOT	6	9/2	Front-runner	70	72	79.5	58.2	51.2
4	FINAL DELIVERY	4	3/1	Front-runner	73	70	67.9	51.3	41.3
2	MY MAN BECKETT	2	5/2	Front-runner	77	71	63.6	60.0	49.0
7	DEACON	7	9/2	Stalker	81	66	68.0	65.4	56.9
3	ARABIAN STORY	3	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	73	70	63.5	63.5	57.5
1	UGO	1	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	76	61	44.8	67.4	60.9
5	ITASCA	5	6/1	Trailer	74	63	34.8	65.0	58.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-02-2020, 10:41 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Grants Pass

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Stakes - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $17000 Class Rating: 58

GREEK NATIVE S. - FOR OREGON BRED TWO YEAR OLDS. NO NOMINATION. $100 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX. FIRST PREFERENCE TO WINNERS. SECOND PREFERENCE BY LIFETIME EARNINGS. FIELD WILL BE LIMITED TO TEN. WEIGHT: 122 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 HOT AUGUST STORM 2/1
# 1 JACOMINA 5/2
# 3 SLEW'S LEGACY 7/2

HOT AUGUST STORM is the most competitive bet in this race. Has formidable Equibase speed figs and has to be considered for a wager in here. Very good try today with second time Lasix. Has to be given a shot - I like the figs from the last contest. JACOMINA - With a respectable 58 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will clearly be a factor in this race. Players get an edge when playing this handler in a dirt sprint race. SLEW'S LEGACY - Looks solid to be up near the front end at the first call. The average class fig of 47 makes this one hard to beat.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-02-2020, 10:42 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #9 - Post: 4:30pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,800 Class Rating: 69

Rating:

#5 ACADIA FLEET (ML=9/2)
#11 AWESOME MACHINE (ML=3/1)
#9 KANHOLDHERWINE (ML=8/1)

ACADIA FLEET - This jockey/trainer duo has been producing a very positive ROI, right at +720. AWESOME MACHINE - This filly is in fine condition. Ended up second on October 21st. Although I sometimes have doubts about a thoroughbred who failed as the favorite in her last race, this filly got a solid speed figure and fits well here. KANHOLDHERWINE - Widely used handicapping angle - 3rd or 4th start after a vacation generally leads to a big effort. Should run a big one here. This speedy sort is shortening up today. Should increase her chances to win. This horse ran out of the money at Thistledown last time out on a sloppy track. She should improve right here without a sloppy track.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 SOMEWHERE UP NORTH (ML=5/1), #8 NATALIA'S TEMPLE (ML=6/1),

SOMEWHERE UP NORTH - I'm always particularly concerned about any horse that earns her biggest speed rating on an 'off' track. NATALIA'S TEMPLE - Mediocre speed rating last time out at Thistledown at 5 1/2 furlongs. Don't believe this runner will improve too much in today's race.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - AWESOME MACHINE - I start with the top class horse in the field then work my way down. This one's got the top earnings per start. No need to look further.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #5 ACADIA FLEET on top if we're getting at least 9/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,9,11]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [5,9,11] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[5,9,11] with [5,9,11] with [5,6,9,10,11] with [5,6,9,10,11] Total Cost: $36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-02-2020, 11:05 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Mountaineer Park - Race #5 - Post: 8:28pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,900 Class Rating: 72

Rating:

#5 MY DISCRETION (ML=5/1)

MY DISCRETION - My pals and I have made bucks playing horses with this type of speed. Follow my advice and do the same. This gelding is in good condition, having run a nice race on Oct 21st, finishing third. This gelding garnered a strong speed rating of 72 in his last event. That speed fig should be high enough to win in today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 RISKY FOREST (ML=5/2), #4 COWBOY RUSTY (ML=3/1), #3 SWAMP RULER (ML=7/2),

RISKY FOREST - This chalk horse may be out of shape without any recent morning drills. Awfully hard to bet on this pony when he hasn't been showing any indications of eagerness recently. COWBOY RUSTY - Most likely won't make much of a mark this time. SWAMP RULER - This racer hasn't been coming close at the wire lately. This questionable contender ran a somewhat easily forgotten speed figure last race out. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably get beat in today's race running that figure.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - MY DISCRETION - The Power Rating tells me that this horse looks good versus the rest of this field. I'm betting.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #5 MY DISCRETION to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-02-2020, 12:20 PM

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Buccaneers travel to meet the Giants in a Monday Night battle. It's QB Tom Brady against his Super Bowl nemesis, but these G-Men aren't the same ones he faced for all the marbles. And he is wearing new threads now, too. Still, you know that will be the storyline, as the TV people need something to put lipstick on this pig. Tampa rolled over Las Vegas on the road, winning 45-20 as 3.5-point favorites, the second consecutive blowout win. Just last week they polished off the Green Bay Packers by a 38-10 score. The Bucs offense has posted 31, 28, 38, 19, 38 and 45 in the past six outings, as Brady now looks comfortable, and the Patriots are probably wishing him back right about now.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-02-2020, 01:54 PM

Tech Trends - Week 8
Bruce Marshall

Week 8 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, Oct. 29 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all 14 matchups. We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Monday, Nov. 2

TAMPA BAY at N.Y. GIANTS

G-Men 3-0-1 vs. line last four, 4-1-1 vs. spread last six in 2020.
Bucs 2-2 vs. line away TY, Arians teams “over” 31-15 since mid 2016 with Cards (16-7 “over” with Bucs; 4-3 in 2020). .

Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Giants, based on “totals” and team trends.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-02-2020, 01:55 PM

273TAMPA BAY -274 NY GIANTS
NY GIANTS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games as a dog in the last 2 seasons.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-02-2020, 01:55 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 8

Monday, November 2

Tampa Bay @ NY Giants

Game 273-274
November 2, 2020 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
143.022
NY Giants
123.035
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 20
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 10 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-10 1/2); Under

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-02-2020, 01:56 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 8

Monday, November 2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (5 - 2) at NY GIANTS (1 - 6) - 11/2/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 66-43 ATS (+18.7 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 40-66 ATS (-32.6 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 2-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons