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Las Vegas Cris
4% Steelers +5.5 (-108)
Steelers +5.5 4% (Play good to +4) (3% at 3 or 3.5) >>>> UPDATE WRITE UP BELOW ORIGINAL TEXT <<<<<<<
This line crashed fast, there are some 3.5's starting to show. Getting the best of the number is always the goal. Ive been waiting 6 days for the Bears/Rams line to move to where I want it. I do my best to maximize line value for clients. I want every single half pt I can get.
So, as important as line value is, this line moved 1.5, didnt we lose too much value?
Answer. NO They made a HUGE mistake on this line. If the line had opened at 3.5 or 4. It would be a happy bet. The opener moved through “dead numbers”
(((((((Update: Have to admit something that doesn't happen often. The original line was so far off, I had to spend time contacting other sharp contacts, scrolling twitter for info< checking injury reports< etc.. A game with 2 quality teams does not get lined that far off. it just doesn't happen
Short summary: This is a bad spot for Pitt off a tough road win, and off to play another rival for conference bye , that is off a bye. Steelers have a bit of the injury bug also, but they were able to overcome it last wk vs TN. Baltimore has done a shift in their plan. They are retooling Jackson to be a pocket passer and he hasnt adjusted yet. Baltimore is down to 15th in the offense math model. Jackson no longer runs< and we watch him try and evolve to an accurate passer. Hes going up against our #1 defense , Pitt. The model has Pitt higher in Offense (11) vs the #3 Balt D. The conclusion is, Steelers are the higher rated overall team and getting over a FG. Stated above, line caved down from a great line to the spread we expected and wanted anyway.
4% Steelers +5.5 (-108)
Steelers +5.5 4% (Play good to +4) (3% at 3 or 3.5) >>>> UPDATE WRITE UP BELOW ORIGINAL TEXT <<<<<<<
This line crashed fast, there are some 3.5's starting to show. Getting the best of the number is always the goal. Ive been waiting 6 days for the Bears/Rams line to move to where I want it. I do my best to maximize line value for clients. I want every single half pt I can get.
So, as important as line value is, this line moved 1.5, didnt we lose too much value?
Answer. NO They made a HUGE mistake on this line. If the line had opened at 3.5 or 4. It would be a happy bet. The opener moved through “dead numbers”
(((((((Update: Have to admit something that doesn't happen often. The original line was so far off, I had to spend time contacting other sharp contacts, scrolling twitter for info< checking injury reports< etc.. A game with 2 quality teams does not get lined that far off. it just doesn't happen
Short summary: This is a bad spot for Pitt off a tough road win, and off to play another rival for conference bye , that is off a bye. Steelers have a bit of the injury bug also, but they were able to overcome it last wk vs TN. Baltimore has done a shift in their plan. They are retooling Jackson to be a pocket passer and he hasnt adjusted yet. Baltimore is down to 15th in the offense math model. Jackson no longer runs< and we watch him try and evolve to an accurate passer. Hes going up against our #1 defense , Pitt. The model has Pitt higher in Offense (11) vs the #3 Balt D. The conclusion is, Steelers are the higher rated overall team and getting over a FG. Stated above, line caved down from a great line to the spread we expected and wanted anyway.
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