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R.J. White
Las Vegas Super Contest
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Detroit Lions
The Colts have stumbled a bit over their last few games, but the bye should benefit them a great deal. They're excellent at everything except running the ball, and I don't think that's going to matter much against a Lions team coming off back-to-back road wins against bottom-of-the-barrel teams. The Colts defense should have no problem slowing down a Lions offense that was struggling before getting to face the Jaguars and Falcons, and I love the fact that the Colts are coming off a bye, which should widen the coaching edge between Frank Reich and Matt Patricia. Great spot for Indy here.
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
It's expected to be very windy in Cleveland, and that's going to give the advantage to whichever team is better at running the ball and stopping the run. The Browns have a big edge on both sides of the ball in yards per rush, so this sets up perfectly for them even with Odell Beckham Jr. unavailable. The Raiders defense is last in the NFL in points allowed per drive, so even in normal conditions I'd like the Browns to have success offensively. Cleveland's two losses came on the road against two of the best teams in the league in the Steelers and Ravens; there's a chance that the Browns are a fair bit better than a solid but not great Raiders team.
Miami Dolphins (+3.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams
This is a brutal spot for a Rams team making its fourth cross-country trip among five road games in a seven-week span, and they're doing it on a short week coming off the Monday night game. While I'm worried they can run the ball against a poor Dolphins rush defense, I think the rough spot will catch up on the defensive side of the ball as the team looks forward to a bye after this game. We should also trust coaching staffs when they make voluntary QB changes, especially when they're inserting a highly-touted rookie. Brian Flores and his staff know far better than us whether Tua Tagovailoa is ready. So I'm confident there's value on the home team here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.5) at New York Giants
This is a lot of points to lay on the road, but I think we should do it. For starters, my power ratings have this line three points higher; the gap between these teams isn't that much smaller than the one between the Chiefs and Jets. The Giants offense is 30th in DVOA and 31st in points per drive; how do they score on a D that is first in DVOA by a mile and second in points per drive? The Bucs have scored 28-plus in four of their last five games, with Chicago as the only defense to slow them down at all. The Giants defense is solid, but it isn't on the level of the Bears'. Expect a 27-13 type of game.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+4) at Baltimore Ravens
This is a tough spot for the Steelers with the Ravens coming off a bye, but I don't see how you make either of these teams a favorite of more than three when they face each other with the way they're playing right now. The Steelers have an excellent defense that ranks second in the league in yards per rush, which will help slow down Baltimore's run game. The Ravens haven't been that successful in the passing game this year, so if Pittsburgh comes through defending the ground game, there's no reason this game should be out of hand in the second half. Take the Steelers and the points, since we're getting good value.
Las Vegas Super Contest
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Detroit Lions
The Colts have stumbled a bit over their last few games, but the bye should benefit them a great deal. They're excellent at everything except running the ball, and I don't think that's going to matter much against a Lions team coming off back-to-back road wins against bottom-of-the-barrel teams. The Colts defense should have no problem slowing down a Lions offense that was struggling before getting to face the Jaguars and Falcons, and I love the fact that the Colts are coming off a bye, which should widen the coaching edge between Frank Reich and Matt Patricia. Great spot for Indy here.
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
It's expected to be very windy in Cleveland, and that's going to give the advantage to whichever team is better at running the ball and stopping the run. The Browns have a big edge on both sides of the ball in yards per rush, so this sets up perfectly for them even with Odell Beckham Jr. unavailable. The Raiders defense is last in the NFL in points allowed per drive, so even in normal conditions I'd like the Browns to have success offensively. Cleveland's two losses came on the road against two of the best teams in the league in the Steelers and Ravens; there's a chance that the Browns are a fair bit better than a solid but not great Raiders team.
Miami Dolphins (+3.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams
This is a brutal spot for a Rams team making its fourth cross-country trip among five road games in a seven-week span, and they're doing it on a short week coming off the Monday night game. While I'm worried they can run the ball against a poor Dolphins rush defense, I think the rough spot will catch up on the defensive side of the ball as the team looks forward to a bye after this game. We should also trust coaching staffs when they make voluntary QB changes, especially when they're inserting a highly-touted rookie. Brian Flores and his staff know far better than us whether Tua Tagovailoa is ready. So I'm confident there's value on the home team here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.5) at New York Giants
This is a lot of points to lay on the road, but I think we should do it. For starters, my power ratings have this line three points higher; the gap between these teams isn't that much smaller than the one between the Chiefs and Jets. The Giants offense is 30th in DVOA and 31st in points per drive; how do they score on a D that is first in DVOA by a mile and second in points per drive? The Bucs have scored 28-plus in four of their last five games, with Chicago as the only defense to slow them down at all. The Giants defense is solid, but it isn't on the level of the Bears'. Expect a 27-13 type of game.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+4) at Baltimore Ravens
This is a tough spot for the Steelers with the Ravens coming off a bye, but I don't see how you make either of these teams a favorite of more than three when they face each other with the way they're playing right now. The Steelers have an excellent defense that ranks second in the league in yards per rush, which will help slow down Baltimore's run game. The Ravens haven't been that successful in the passing game this year, so if Pittsburgh comes through defending the ground game, there's no reason this game should be out of hand in the second half. Take the Steelers and the points, since we're getting good value.
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