Tuesday 11/3/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-03-2020, 06:56 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Parx Racing - Race #1

#8 Heart of a Dreamer	Pace player has been facing better and tiring badly, but there's not much early zip here, so he won't have to work as hard, at a very reduced level too; look out.
#1 Grand Oasis	The chalk drops stiffly in class, and that alone will make him tough, though his last was a real dud, and his lack of speed won't help either; trying to beat on top.
#5 Knokke by the Sea	Fellow closer passed some late last time at the level but was a distant 4th and is another who won't like the pace, which means he may idle late; underneath only.
Race Summary	The outside attack post, price, and race flow all appear to work for the 8, who could get overlooked a bit off his last few, so play him to win and place, and especially to kick off the early Pk4 as well, since the chalk looks vulnerable, and the pick has a decided race flow advantage on him.

Parx Racing - Race #5

#5 Louie's Law	Lake firster goes for a patient 8% debut barn, so he could need this, but those works jump off the page, and the proven runners don't inspire either; thinking he's live.
#2 Dakota Outlaw	Fellow firster starts for DeMasi, who is 12% on debut, and this dude has some AM appeal as well, though the rail is no bargain for a youngster; still, seems worth a look.
#1 Smokum Peace Pipe	Experienced runner has been out twice and just missed last time, so he'll be tough, but he's also slow on figures, and will be vastly overbet too; making him prove it on top.
Race Summary	Tab the tote on the 5, as you'd like to see him live and taking money if he's ready to fire, and if that's the base you can give him a look in all the slots, and especially to kick off the middle Pk4 as well, as this looks like a group there for the taking, and he's hinted in the morning that he's going to be difficult to deal with in the afternoon.

Parx Racing - Race #9

#8 Arkaan	Talented 3yo found deeper water too tough in his last two, but those two sprint wins to start his career were beauties, and this looks like a field to get back on the beam against; imposing.
#1 Ruby Bleu	Logical sort has run well all year but is just 1-for-8, so a win seems like a bit of a reach, but he's tactical and usually runs his race, which can get him a big piece of this; the main danger.
#3 War Treaty	The wildcard has some good form but hasn't been seen in over 14 months, and Linder is 0-for-13 off this elongated breaks, so while he's been working well, he may need this; tabbing today.
Race Summary	You certainly won't get rich on the 8 but that 5-2 ML would seem like a gift, so make an aggressive win and place bet if you sniff anything close to it, though you can get some added value by singling him in the late Pk4, as he's got a ton of talent, and no one in this field has been able to match it up to this point.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-03-2020, 06:57 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mountaineer - Race #1

#2 Sun Brown	Class riser changed barns and aired last time, and while this group is tougher, a repeat of that run would give him a chance.
#6 My Way Out	Pace player will be close throughout and drops slightly in class too, though that win two-back was his only recent good run.
#9 High Rolling Dude	Underlay wins this for fun with his best but drops off the Sullivan claim, after a dreadful run at FE, which isn't a good sign, from a terrible post too.
Race Summary	Sun Brown, if you believe his last, can play with a group like this, and you'll likely get enough value to find out.

Mountaineer - Race #4

#8 Lucky Tuesday	Lightly raced runner has hit the board on both starts, owns plenty of early speed, and has more upside than the rest of this group combined.
#3 Lincoln Center	He didn't fire in the slop last time but the 2nd here two-back was fast, and while she's 11-0-3-2 lifetime, it's a pretty 4-0-2-2 here.
#6 Winning Sis	ML favorite has some big works for his debut, but Matejka is 1-for-21 on the year, which doesn't entice when you're talking 5-2 or so.
Race Summary	Lucky Tuesday seems to catch the right group for a breakthrough, especially if Winning Sis needs one, so if the money doesn't show on that one, it only adds to the former's appeal.

Mountaineer - Race #6

#2 C J's Flair	FE invader has been in good form of late and owns a stalking gear that should come in handy in a race with plenty of early speed.
#4 Sharpin	Stretch runner was just a distant 2nd against better and will get her pace, though her best three runs were on the Tapeta at PID.
#4 Sharpin	Fellow dropper was a neck behind 'Candy last time and should also like this easier crew, though she may get caught up in all the speed.
Race Summary	The pace will suit C J's Flair, and she should be a square price too, which makes her that much more appealing in a race that could collapse late.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-03-2020, 06:58 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Indiana Grand - Race #2

#3 Island Song	Takes a class drop off the claim by McFarlane and is two of his last four has cruised to wins at Churchill Downs and Prairie Meadows.
#1 Naughty Alfred	Was up in time for a win and was claimed by Amoss; won three of his last five and the connections get played.
#7 Call West	Has a decent late move and can benefit from a fast pace; could be a blur in the stretch.
Race Summary	Island Song will put down some fast fractions and if he can get a breather at all will be very difficult to catch.

Indiana Grand - Race #7

#7 Hoptown Honey	Was claimed two back by Roberson, shipped to Hawthorne and tired late in a tough sprint; has done her best running at Indiana Grand lately and can return to good form.
#4 Its Cold in Dehere	Was up in time at this level last time out and usually runs well over this sprint; big player late in the game.
#1 Baileston Lassie	Turns back from a third going two turns and is more comfortable in sprints; could surprise at a big price.
Race Summary	Hoptown Honey gave way from early efforts at Hawthorne and should like this return to Indiana Grand; capable of taking them the distance.

Indiana Grand - Race #9

#6 California Swing	Does his best when he gets a good pace in front of him and gets that chance to today; speedsters could set the table for his late move.
#4 Hard to Be Good	Loves to be the on the front end and will do what she can to be in that position; was claimed by Amoss last out and could be difficult to reel in.
#8 Cowboy Diplomacy	Comes out of good races going short and was third early in the year going long at Oaklawn; can be part of a good pace.
Race Summary	California Swing's best chance is if there's a congregation of fast horses battling it out early, and he could have the best chance to make up ground if the early going is too quick for the speedsters. Capable of a big run over this strip.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-03-2020, 08:39 AM

Tony Mejia

Event: (224357) Liverpool at (224358) Atalanta

Sport/League: SOC

Date/Time: November 3, 2020 3PM EST

Play: Total Over 3.5 (-105)

Liverpool is back atop the Premier League through seven games, a full three points clear of everyone else. No club has scored more than Liverpool's 17 goals but it has also surrendered the most, giving up 15.

The Reds take their wide open attacking style to Bergamo for a date with a team that similarly plays matches that feature loads of goals. Atalanta leads Serie A with 17 goals and Group D with six tallies. It will be chasing all three points at Stadio di Bergamo in order to leapfrog the reigning EPL Champs for group supremacy with half the matches played.

Argentina's Alejandro Gomez and Colombian strikers Duvan Zapata and Luis Muriel will challenge Liverpool, which should also have success against a vulnerable defense. Ride the over on 3.5 goals.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-03-2020, 08:40 AM

Nick Borrman

Event: Marseille at FC Porto

Sport/League: SOC

Date/Time: November 3, 2020 3PM EST

Play: FC Porto (-115)

UEFA Champions League

Porto are a tough team to crack at home. They have just three losses in their last 30 games there with two draws and 25 wins including beating Olympiakos 2-0 in their last match whom Marseille lost to, 0-1 in Greece.

Both teams struggled against Man City so far in the group, but Marseille looked especially bad playing at home and generated just two total shots in the game and a 0.06 xG tally.

So far in Ligue 1, Marseille has played 8 games with a 1.06 xG avg per game while allowing 1.56 xGA on avg. While they did play PSG, whom they miraculously beat 1-0 on the road despite a 0.50 – 2.22 xGA tally, they were also completely outplayed by the other two good teams in the league in Lille and Lyon. They somehow drew both games against them but generated just 1.25 xG combined in both games while allowing 4.63. That will eventually catch up to them.

Meanwhile Porto is doing what they should do in the Primeira Liga generating 2.16 xG per game while allowing just 1.06 xGA and most of that was this past weekend in a 2-3 loss at Ferreira in which they rested a few players to be ready for this match.

Unfortunately for Marseille, I think they are looking at an 0-3 start to the group and really think there is good value for Porto to get what should be a rather straight forward home win.

TAKE FC PORTO TO WIN (ML or -0.5)

Line Parameter: 3% to -140 or -0.75

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-03-2020, 08:40 AM

Hunter Price

Nov 03 '20, 2:00 PM in 5h
Soccer | Gillingham vs Crewe Alexandra
Play on: Gillingham +300 at Buckeye

1* Free Pick on Gillingham +300

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-03-2020, 08:41 AM

Sean Murphy

Nov 03 '20, 3:00 PM in 6h
Soccer | Bayern Munich vs FC Red Bull Salzburg
Play on: UNDER 4 -105

Tuesday Champions League Free play. My selection is on the 'under' 4 goals between Bayern Munich and Red Bull Salzburg at 3 pm et on Tuesday.
We've seen a bit of a lull from Bayern Munich (by its own lofty standards) over its last couple of matches, resulting in consecutive 2-1 victories over Lokomotiv Moscow in Champions League action last week and FC Koln in Bundesliga play on Saturday. Here, I believe it has a good chance of holding Salzburg off the scoresheet altogether, which would obviously set us up well with a play on the 'under'. Last week we saw Salzburg suffer a 3-2 setback against a highly-motivated Atletico Madrid squad (that had lost in blowout fashion against Bayern Munich the previous week). Salzburg knows that it can ill afford to get involved in a high-scoring affair with highly-skilled Bayern. Instead look for it to try to make this match as ugly as possible, ultimately keeping the score lower than expected in this Champions League affair. Take the under 4 goals (8*).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-03-2020, 09:30 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer Park

Mountaineer Park - Race 9	2nd Half Daily Double $2 Exacta $1 Box $1 Trifecta $.50 Box $1 Superfecta $.20 Box $1 Super 5 $.50 Box
Maiden Claiming $4,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 43 • Purse: $6,700 • Post: 9:56P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. GERRY LYNN is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * KISS THE CAT FORME: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SHEZA MEAN BROAD: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. FLATTER ME SYDNEY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top thre e in TrackMaster Power Rating.
9	GERRY LYNN	20/1	4/1
2	KISS THE CAT FORME	9/2	6/1
8	SHEZA MEAN BROAD	30/1	6/1
6	FLATTER ME SYDNEY	4/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
9	GERRY LYNN	9	20/1	Front-runner	54	32	53.4	22.2	15.2
2	KISS THE CAT FORME	2	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	48	36	35.8	29.6	23.1
8	SHEZA MEAN BROAD	8	30/1	Alternator/Stalker	45	47	32.8	27.6	20.1
6	FLATTER ME SYDNEY	6	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	50	34	28.6	25.8	17.8
7	KYLESNORTHERNSTAR	7	30/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	10.2	25.0	11.5
5	OUT ONA LIMB	5	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	41	35	41.0	20.0	12.0
3	BELLA BLESS	3	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	31.6	12.6	2.1
1	DISTINCTLY ELITE	1	6/5	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	25.0	19.7	8.2
10	SOVEREIGN CAT	10	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	12.5	17.8	2.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-03-2020, 09:44 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Indiana Downs

Indiana Downs - Race 6	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) 50 Cent Pick 5 (Races 6-7-8-9-10)
Maiden Special • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 66 • Purse: $35,000 • Post: 4:35P
FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS SIRED BY REGISTERED INDIANA STALLIONS MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * PERFECT DANCER: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. DIRT Y BAD BOY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. GOOD EATS CAFE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. ALL STAR JUSTICE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. CHUY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
3	PERFECT DANCER	10/1	5/1
8	DIRTY BAD BOY	5/2	6/1
5	GOOD EATS CAFE	6/1	7/1
6	ALL STAR JUSTICE	6/5	9/1
2	CHUY	12/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	IT'S THE SUNRISE	4	12/1	Alternator/Front-runner	57	55	74.7	52.6	41.1
2	CHUY	2	12/1	Alternator/Front-runner	59	59	64.6	51.8	43.8
3	PERFECT DANCER	3	10/1	Alternator/Front-runner	75	65	59.1	56.2	49.2
8	DIRTY BAD BOY	8	5/2	Alternator/Front-runner	68	54	57.0	57.2	53.2
5	GOOD EATS CAFE	5	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	68	57	49.3	54.0	47.0
6	ALL STAR JUSTICE	6	6/5	Trailer	62	62	53.0	53.0	42.5
7	MIGHTY CONTENDER	7	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	53.3	42.3	32.8
1	IRON HORACE	1	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	31.3	29.4	16.4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-03-2020, 09:45 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Zia Park - Race #7 - Post: 2:42pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,000 Class Rating: 63

Rating:

#3 TAX MONEY (ML=8/1)
#4 SASHAYING SIS (ML=15/1)
#12 KISS N KICK (ML=4/1)

TAX MONEY - Was in a $10,000 Claiming race at Albuquerque in the last race. That event had a class rating of 79 and she is moving down in this field. A certain contender. Guerra and Woolley perform well when they combine forces. It's hard to beat a +760 return on investment for a rider and trainer. Dropping 5 pounds from last race. Could be a deciding factor today. SASHAYING SIS - This mare won at this distance on Jul 19th and was at a higher class than today. KISS N KICK - I like to see consistency in a racehorse. Look at this mare's PPs. Almost always in the money. She must like the track here. She just won over the track after shipping in. Just look at her most recent speed rating, 63. That one fits well in this field. The October 14th race at Zia Park was at a class level of (70). Dropping down in class considerably, so she should be in a good spot to win.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 NEW ADVENTURE (ML=9/2), #5 DANCES FOR KAMIA (ML=5/1), #9 SINGING NICOLE (ML=6/1),

NEW ADVENTURE - 67/63/47, are the declining speed figs for this vulnerable equine. That was simply not a very good display in the last clash. This filly earned a speed figure in her last clash which probably isn't good enough in today's race. DANCES FOR KAMIA - The finish position of fifth in the last affair shows me that this equine may be getting out of condition. SINGING NICOLE - This less than sharp equine ran a somewhat easily forgotten speed figure last time out. She shouldn't run better and will probably suffer defeat today running that fig.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #3 TAX MONEY on top if we're getting at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4,12]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4,12] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-03-2020, 09:46 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Grants Pass

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $5900 Class Rating: 77

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,200.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 NERVOUS NELLIE 6/1
# 3 SONIC BOY 5/1
# 7 SPIDER RICO 7/2

NERVOUS NELLIE is the strongest bet in this race. With a formidable 73 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's affair. Could provide positive gains based on very strong recent speed figures with an average of 65. SONIC BOY - With a nice class figure average of 78, has one of the most favorable class advantages in this group. SPIDER RICO - Has been running in the most competitive company of the group of animals as of late. Is tough not to look at based on speed figures which have been solid - 72 avg - of late.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-03-2020, 09:48 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $21000 Class Rating: 58

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 119 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 JACK N' ICE 10/1
# 4 LAZY MICHELLE 5/2
# 1 INCOMPARABLE 6/1

JACK N' ICE has a very good shot to take this race especially at such a decent 10/1. Must be considered given the sire figs TrackMaster shows on this juvenile. LAZY MICHELLE - She looks like a very very solid contender based on sire's progeny results as two-year olds. Cannot be underestimated - Gonzalez is a sharp handler with the babies, winning 18 of his races. Sire's figures - Golden Lad - support this wagering choice. INCOMPARABLE - This filly could improve with second time Lasix. The drastic drop in competition can only aid this one today. This filly looks like a playable longshot.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-03-2020, 01:41 PM

Paul Leiner

Soccer pick 11/3

Here's a soccer lay this afternoon.

100* FC Porto -120

Tuesday 11/3/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Tuesday 11/3/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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