Thursday 11/5/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Laurel

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $19000 Class Rating: 85

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR THREE YEAR OLDS CLAIMING. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 BENANDJOE 5/2
# 7 MAYNOOTH 8/1
# 10 LUDICROUS MODE 8/1

BENANDJOE has a very good shot to take this race. Should be given a shot here on the basis of the figs in the speed section alone. McMahon has a reliable 23 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. Earned a solid speed figure in the last race. Can run another good one in this affair. MAYNOOTH - Has quite good Equibase Class Figures relative to this field - worth a look. He should be given a chance given the respectable speed numbers. LUDICROUS MODE - Could beat this group given the 77 Equibase Speed Figure put up in his last outing.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Claiming - 9.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 77

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 7, 2019 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 22 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 22 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 RYANEAUX SPOT 2/1
# 6 PASO A LA REINA 3/1
# 2 MISS WESTERN 15/1

I've got to go with RYANEAUX SPOT. Vaunts formidable Equibase speed figs on average overall when compared with the rest of this group of animals. Has ran strongly in dirt route races. Will most likely be one of the early speedsters of the bunch going into the midpoint of the outing. PASO A LA REINA - This filly has to be given a chance just off the earnings per start in dirt route races alone. Ran a strong last race. MISS WESTERN - Solid average Equibase speed figs in dirt route races make this racer a contender. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Rivera running at this distance are the strongest in this group.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park West

11/05/20, GPW, Race 7, 3.08 ET
11/05/20,GPW,7,1M [Dirt] 1:35:03 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $43,000 (includes up to $7,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race AtA Mile Or Over Since August 5 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $25,000 (Races Where Entered For $20,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	3	Danville	5/1	Zayas E J	Winebaugh Cheryl	JFC	147	35.37	1.37/$1
095.4937	1	Glory of Florida	2/1	Camacho S	David Carlos A.	S	147	35.37	1.37/$1
093.7667	2	Turn On the Magic	8/1	Vasquez M A	Yates Michael	W	147	35.37	1.37/$1
090.0215	6	Prince James	5/2	Arroyo A S	Danner Kelsey	E	147	35.37	1.37/$1
089.9674	4	Dazzling Truths	6/1	Panici L	Dibona Bobby S.		147	35.37	1.37/$1
087.8605	5	Ralston	4/1	Lopez P	David Carlos A.	L	147	35.37	1.37/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 27.1600, ROI 0.9827/$1
. . . .
100.0000 3 Danville
[Category]Condition
[AllDirt]RaceSexNotFemales

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Remington Park - Race #9 - Post: 10:51pm - Maiden Special - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $29,000 Class Rating: 76

Rating:

#12 HANEY BOYS (ML=8/1)
#11 LOOKIT (ML=20/1)
#14 TIZ A NEW DAY (ML=15/1)
#8 REVIVAL (ML=12/1)


HANEY BOYS - Dropping in Equibase class figure points from his March 5th race at Oaklawn Park. Based on that info, I will give this animal the edge. This colt is tops in earnings per race. Give the once over to this animal in the saddling ring. LOOKIT - This one's dam (Clouds in the Sky) has a fabulous win pct (50 percent) with first timers, so I expect a lot out of this horse. This trainer has an ROI of +56 with horses first time out. TIZ A NEW DAY - I expect this race horse to stun some fans this time out. REVIVAL - The jockey/conditioner pair of Alvarez and Offolter has a strong ROI together. Alvarez is back for another race today after getting on board this animal for the 1st ride on October 9th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. A pony coming back this rapidly after a good outing is a good signal. I think this gelding is ready to run a good one. He's had enough efforts since the vacation and should be fit.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 ROCK RIDGE (ML=7/2), #13 DREADNAUGHT (ML=5/1), #4 COPPER CASING (ML=6/1),

ROCK RIDGE - Showed very little in the last race. Really don't see any hint of a reversal of fortune today. Can't wager on this racer in today's sprint of 6 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a short distance event recently. DREADNAUGHT - Tough for anyone who saw this questionable contender in his last affair to play him today. A pattern of dropping speed figs 79/68/54 for this vulnerable equine. Finished sixth in his most recent effort with a disappointing speed rating. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this bunch. COPPER CASING - 6/1 is not enough of a price to take on this one.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #12 HANEY BOYS on top if we're getting at least 6/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [11,12,14]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Woodbine - Race #6 - Post: 4:52pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $33,400 Class Rating: 82

Rating:

#9 CRUMLIN QUEEN (ML=10/1)
#10 DESERT POEM (ML=4/1)
#3 STOP WHO'S THAT (ML=6/1)


CRUMLIN QUEEN - The morning line odds on this mare are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of trainer Doyle. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. DESERT POEM - Trainer Gattellaro moves this thoroughbred to a lower class level to face a lower rated field. Look for a solid effort at this level. Multiple wins in this horse's life, all at Woodbine. Could add another win in today's race. STOP WHO'S THAT - Was in a $40,000 Claiming race at Woodbine in the last race. That affair had a class number of 89 and she is moving down right here in this race. A certain strong challenger. This mare is very familiar with the winner's circle at Woodbine. I expect a repeat trip in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 BIONDETTI'S CHOICE (ML=3/1), #2 NOT ORBINARY (ML=8/1), #13 AMI'S LINK (ML=8/1),

BIONDETTI'S CHOICE - Don't figure that this racer has what it takes to cross the finish line in first this time. NOT ORBINARY - Speed figs tell a story of decreasing condition. Unlikely that the speed figure she garnered on Oct 22nd will be good enough in this race. AMI'S LINK - Will probably be way back with way too much to do in the stretch.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #9 CRUMLIN QUEEN to win if you can get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,9,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,9,10] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

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ASA

Nov 05 '20, 7:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | Utah State vs Nevada
Play on: Utah State +18½ -109 at pinnacle

ASA FREE PLAY ON: Utah State Aggies (+) versus Nevada Wolf Pack, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET - A lot of points to be giving Utah State as a huge road dog. The Aggies early results are ugly this season but they played a pair of tough defenses as they faced San Diego State and Boise State. Utah State will fare much better against the porous defense of the Wolf Pack. Nevada is off of a big win at UNLV but the Rebels are not a very good team and that was a one possession game going to the 4th quarter! Off that win against their biggest rival, Nevada could come out a little flat here and the Wolf Pack did allow 34 points (31 in regulation time) in their only other game this season. The Wolf Pack should score well here but the Aggies do enough to stay close in this game and the line move has led to great value here. Per our computer math model, Nevada is going to struggle to cover the big number posted on this game and the big underdog is the play in this one. FREE PLAY Utah State (+) points

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Mike Williams

Nov 05 '20, 7:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | Utah State vs Nevada
Play on: Nevada -17 -110 at Mirage

1* on Nevada -17 -110

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Brandon Lee

Nov 05 '20, 8:20 PM in 3h
NFL | Packers vs 49ers
Play on: Packers -7 -120 at William Hill

PICK - Green Bay Packers -7
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 301
It didn't look like this game was going to get played after the 49ers shut down their facility on Wednesday. I don't love Green Bay at this price, but given the circumstances I got to roll the dice here with Aaron Rodgers.
Situationally this is a great spot, as you like to back good teams off a loss, which is what we have with the Packers just getting upset at home by Minnesota. We already saw Green Bay excel in this spot after losing at home to the Bucs in Week 6. They won their next games 35-20 at Houston as a slim 3-point favorite.
There's also big time motivation here for Green Bay. These two teams last met in last year's AFC Championship Game. The Packers were embarrassed in that game. They trailed 34-7 going into the 4th quarter.
Also going back to that game last year, I think people tend to forget that while the Packers offense struggled to score early, Rodgers went 31 of 39 for 326 yards in that game.
I just feel this becomes a statement game for Green Bay and it could possibly be why they didn't look their best last week.
If that's the case and the Packers are treating this like a test they have to pass, this game shouldn't be close. The 49ers have been decimated by injuries and were just hit hard with Covid.
San Francisco won't have starting quarterback Jimmy G. Before we get to the rest. Note that the 49ers are 24-7 scoring 28.6 ppg with Garoppolo and 5-22 scoring 19.6 pgg without.
They also won't have one of the best players in the game in tight end George Kittle. He's not the only target out, as 5 receivers are out with injury or covid. The only healthy WR on the roster (will add some practice squad guys) is Trent Taylor, who has 9 catches for 17 yards this season.
They also don't have 3 of their top RB's with Coleman, Mostert and Wilson Jr. all sidelined. Plus they will be without starting left tackle Trent Williams.
I get the Packers have had their defensive setbacks at times. If they can't stop this offense Thursday, defensive coordinator Mike Pettine needs to be without a job Friday morning. Give me the Packers -7!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals Guru

Nov 05 '20, 8:20 PM in 3h
NFL | Packers vs 49ers
Play on: OVER 48 -110

Free Total Annihilator On Packers vs 49ers over 48 -110

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Sean Murphy

Nov 05 '20, 8:20 PM in 3h
NFL | Packers vs 49ers
Play on: Packers -7 -105 at YouWager

Thursday NFL Free play. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over San Francisco at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.
I'm not going to overthink this one. The 49ers are a shell of their former selves, already ravaged by injuries before losing a number of players due to COVID-19 protocols on Wednesday. They'll be hard-pressed to match the Packers here, noting that Green Bay will certainly be out for revenge after suffering two beatdowns at the hands of the Niners last season - including one in the NFC Championship Game. The Packers will also be in a foul mood due to last Sunday's poor showing against the division-rival Vikings. I certainly don't expect them to overlook the Niners - they simply can't take anything for granted right now based on how they've performed lately. This is certainly a favorable matchup for Packers QB Aaron Rodgers as San Francisco has had no success at all getting to opposing quarterbacks this season and that isn't likely to change given their MASH squad this week. I'm actually not all that high on the Packers offense in general, especially with RB Aaron Jones likely to miss another game, but there's no denying this is a dream matchup given all of the Niners absences on the defensive side of the football. Take Green Bay (8*).

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Will Rogers

Nov 05 '20, 8:20 PM in 3h
NFL | Packers vs 49ers
Play on: Packers -5 -115 at Draft Kings

The set-up: San Francisco has an above average pass defense, which Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have struggled against, but after losing both teams to the 49rs last year, I expect Green Bay to bounce back off a loss last weekend, to avenge those two setbacks from last season, and to take advantage of this once again severely depleted 49ers side. San Francisco had won two in a row, but it came up short in last week's 37-27 loss in Seattle. The 49ers though lost the services of their two best players in the setback as well, as QB Jimmy Garoppolo and dynamic playmaking TE George Kittle are both now out with injury for several weeks.
The pick: Very much a common sense play here. Green Bay has all the motivation it needs to win this game, while all signs point to massive regression from this San Francisco team that continues to deal with adversity. Consider laying the points.
This is a 1* FREE PLAY on the PACKERS.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sal Michaels

Nov 05 '20, 9:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-F | Wyoming vs Colorado State
Play on: Colorado State +3½ -105 at Bovada

Free Play on Colorado State +3½ -105

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Kenny Walker

Nov 05 '20, 9:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-F | Wyoming vs Colorado State
Play on: Wyoming -3½ -102 at pinnacle

Free Pick on Wyoming

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Cole Faxon

Nov 05 '20, 9:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-F | Wyoming vs Colorado State
Play on: OVER 52½ -109

FREE PLAY on Wyoming/Colorado State over 52½ -109

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Frank Sawyer

Nov 05 '20, 9:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-F | Wyoming vs Colorado State
Play on: UNDER 54 -106

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR THURSDAY, 11/5:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play on my cut list for Thursday is Under the Total in the game between the Wyoming Cowboys and the Colorado State Rams. Wyoming (1-1) comes off a 31-7 upset win at home to Hawai’i last Friday with that Total set at 60. The Cowboys have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total in November. Wyoming goes back on the road where the Under is 12-4-1 in their last 17 games. Colorado State (0-1) comes off a 38-17 loss at Fresno State last Thursday. That game finished below the 58 point total — the Rams have now played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total in conference play. Colorado State has also played 8 straight Unders in November. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank.