Thursday 11/12/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

123COLORADO ST -124 BOISE ST
COLORADO ST is 44-23 ATS (18.7 Units) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival since 1992.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 11

Trend Report

Thursday, November 12

Colorado State @ Boise State
Colorado State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado State's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Colorado State's last 5 games on the road
Boise State
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Colorado State
Boise State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Thursday, November 12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COLORADO ST (1 - 1) at BOISE ST (2 - 1) - 11/12/2020, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOISE ST is 156-114 ATS (+30.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 156-114 ATS (+30.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 98-71 ATS (+19.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
COLORADO ST is 66-45 ATS (+16.5 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOISE ST is 1-1 against the spread versus COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
BOISE ST is 2-0 straight up against COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Woodbine

Woodbine - Race 8	Exacta / 0.20 Trifecta / 0.20 Superfecta / 0.20 Jackpot Hi5
Claiming $5,000 • 7 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 68 • Purse: $17,700 • Post: 5:58P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2020 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED FOR ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * OXESOME: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. VALLEY GIRL: Horse ra cing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. JOAN'S CHRISTINE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SAVVY'S SISTER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. TOTALLY PERFECT: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
11	OXESOME	20/1	6/1
12	VALLEY GIRL	4/1	7/1
5	JOAN'S CHRISTINE	8/1	7/1
1	SAVVY'S SISTER	10/1	8/1
9	TOTALLY PERFECT	8/1	8/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	JOAN'S CHRISTINE	5	8/1	Front-runner	64	63	78.4	54.4	46.4
3	FLATOUTONAMISSION	3	20/1	Front-runner	57	58	65.8	45.6	16.1
11	OXESOME	11	20/1	Alternator/Front-runner	78	73	79.9	49.2	36.2
1	SAVVY'S SISTER	1	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	76	67	63.0	55.4	44.9
12	VALLEY GIRL	12	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	76	73	62.8	66.2	52.7
4	MY SUGAR PIE	4	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	63	61	39.0	38.7	25.2
10	BEAT THE RUSH	10	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	62	57	36.0	55.7	37.2
15	PRESSURE FRONT	15	15/1	Trailer	62	55	68.2	49.5	31.5
13	CHEETAHRA	13	20/1	Trailer	61	57	51.0	53.0	40.5
8	PETITE AMIE	8	20/1	Trailer	63	60	38.6	45.4	27.9
9	TOTALLY PERFECT	9	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	74	66	47.7	57.7	52.7
14	FINE LADY	14	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	58	60	62.0	42.7	20.2
2	SENORITA UNO	2	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	66	54	58.6	38.0	18.0
16	SICK SOCIETY	16	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	60	59	51.9	41.8	22.8
6	RASPBERRY WILD	6	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	67	51	34.0	44.8	20.3
7	KEEP YOUR SILENCE	7	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	58	60	33.8	45.6	23.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Aqueduct

11/12/20, AQU, Race 1, 12.20 ET
11/12/20,AQU,1,6F [Dirt] 1:07:03 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $70,000. FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY. Weight, 119 lbs. (Non-Starters For A Claiming Price Of $40,000 Or Less In The Last 3 Starts Preferred).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	5	High Limit Room	10/1	Vargas. Jr. J A	Camejo Jose M.	SFL	66	46.97	1.26/$1
098.9528	4	Masked Marauder	7/5	Ortiz. Jr. I	Atras Rob	JTE	93	45.16	1.15/$1
098.8349	6	Uno	8/5	Ortiz J L	Pletcher Todd A.		93	45.16	1.15/$1
097.9227	1	Forty Two Ace	4/1	Rosario J	Sciacca Gary	C	66	46.97	1.26/$1
097.6316	2	Big Brown Shoes	12/1	Carmouche K	Baker Charlton	W	93	45.16	1.15/$1
097.5167	3	Hangout	8/1	Franco M	Donk David G.		93	45.16	1.15/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 40.3600, ROI 1.0506/$1
. . . .
100.0000 5 High Limit Room
[Category]Condition
[DirtMdnMClm]HorseNotAge3 with
[DirtMdnMClm]LastRaceWasSprintWithSprintToday

---

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Gate Fields

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10500 Class Rating: 62

FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 119 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 SUPERDUTY JUSTICE 8/5
# 4 QUIPO 9/5
# 6 KODIACTION 5/2

SUPERDUTY JUSTICE looks to be the bet in here. With Pena aboard him, this colt will almost certainly be able to break out quickly in this contest. The extreme drop in class can only help this one this time out. Earnings per start in dirt sprint races is reliable for this horse. QUIPO - Ought to be given a shot here on the basis of the figures in the speed section alone. Ran a sharp last race. KODIACTION - His 50 average has this gelding with among the top Equibase Speed Figures in this event. Posted a quite good Equibase Speed Fig last time out.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Gulfstream Park West - Race #9 - Post: 4:42pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 80

Rating:

#4 MIGHTY FAST (ML=6/1)
#8 SLIPPY (ML=7/2)
#6 JACK B WINKLE (ML=3/1)
#13 POWER (BRZ) (ML=5/1)


MIGHTY FAST - This gelding is in good condition, having run a good race on October 30th, finishing first. Was the leader for every call in last race at Gulfstream Park West. Pretty good chance to repeat that effort right here. SLIPPY - Rode this horse on Oct 22nd and Arroyo is back again in the irons in this race. Look at this pattern of improvement. 40/59/68 are the last 3 speed figures. JACK B WINKLE - Atop this horse on October 24th and Trejos is yet again in the irons this time. This campaigner coming off a nice performance in the last 30 days is a strong challenger in my humble opinion. POWER (BRZ) - You'll be generating money right and left by turning your cash onto this jock/conditioner combination. This animal didn't run well in the slop in his last race at Gulfstream Park West. You should toss out that showing.

Vulnerable Contenders: #14 TONY SMALL (ML=5/2), #10 NINETYDAYSOFWINTER (ML=9/2), #12 SUPER EDGAR (ML=8/1),

TONY SMALL - I don't normally play a chalk horse that hasn't been to the track in the last three weeks. I checked out this horse's past performances and he doesn't do well as the chalk and is likely to be favored today. NINETYDAYSOFWINTER - Not probable that the fig he earned on October 22nd will be good enough in this clash. SUPER EDGAR - Any speed figure garnered on a track listed as good has to be taken with a grain of salt. Unlikely that the speed rating he garnered on October 30th will be enough in this race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #4 MIGHTY FAST on the win end if we get at least 5/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Laurel - Race #1 - Post: 12:25pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 78

Rating:

#7 VICS COOL CAT (ML=4/1)
#6 SARATOGA BEAUTY (ML=5/2)
#1 LOOKIN FOR CANDY (ML=4/1)


VICS COOL CAT - Russell and Reid perform well when they work together. It's hard to beat a +260 return on investment for a jockey and trainer. Trainer, Reid, has been deliberate with this filly off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. After a nice race two starts ago, this animal bounced. Now today, I expect another good performance. Entered a non-classified race race at Laurel last time out and raced on a track listed as good finishing fourth. Will do better in this field. SARATOGA BEAUTY - That 82 fig this filly garnered in her last race tells me she's a big time player this time around. Dropping in Equibase class figure points from her October 4th race at Belmont Park. Based on that knowledge, I will give this horse the edge. Ran a speedy time for the last quarter on Oct 4th at Belmont Park. Anything close right here in this race should get the job done. Another way to judge class is EPS (earnings per start). This racer has the highest in the group. I think she'll be close at the finish line. A repeat effort from any of last 3 outings, and this one should be in 1st place. LOOKIN FOR CANDY - I have to believe Trombetta is making a good move here. This filly can only profit from the shorter trip. A big drop down in class rating points from her October 30th race at Laurel. Based on that data, I will give this animal the advantage. This filly is in fine physical condition. Finished third on October 30th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 KEEPER IN SPITE (ML=3/1), #3 PAUL'S PLUNDER (ML=8/1),

KEEPER IN SPITE - This mount has been a bummer for the bettors as the favorite time and time again. If you keep playing these sort of 'hanger' types, you're going to be disappointed often. Speed kills. Plenty of early zip in this race compromises this horse's chances. PAUL'S PLUNDER - Going to have a hard go of it with all the other speedballs in this event. When looking at today's class figure, she will have to record a better speed rating than last time out to compete in this dirt sprint.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - VICS COOL CAT - Reid has found easier company for this filly today. Last affair was nowhere near as competitive as this one.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#7 VICS COOL CAT to win at post-time odds of 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	7 with [1,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,6,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,6,7] with [1,6,7] with [1,2,5,6,7] with [1,2,5,6,7] Total Cost: $36
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 8 - Allowance - 440y on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 95

QUARTER HORSE 440Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 NO POLITICS HERE 9/2
# 6 ONE SWEET MERLOT 3/1
# 1 ACHIEVOPILOTO 6/1

NO POLITICS HERE looks strong to best this field. Should best this group of horses in this race here, showing very strong figs of late. Very good pick to take this race going in a short. The Equibase Speed Figure of 89 from his latest race looks very good in here. ONE SWEET MERLOT - With a formidable ROI of +5 this conditioner has shown solid results with entries running at this distance and surface. His 86 average has this gelding with among the best Equibase Speed Figures in this race. ACHIEVOPILOTO - Has performed well as of late in short races, posting a nifty 81 avg speed figure. This gelding gets a boost with Ortiz in the irons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

cappers access

(Thur) NCAAF Boise St -14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 11
Bruce Marshall

Week 11 of the College Football season kicks off on Tuesday, Nov. 10 with MACtion and concludes on Saturday Nov. 15.

We've identified betting trends and angles for key matchups between FBS and FCS matchups.

We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Thursday, Nov. 12

COLORADO STATE at BOISE STATE (FS1, 8:00 p.m.)
Addazio finally got his win for CSU on Thursday.
CSU has covered 3 of last 4 meetings, Rams also 7-4 last 11 as MW road dog (0-1 TY).
Even after BYU loss, Boise now 8-4 vs. line last 12 at home after previous struggles laying points on blue turf.

Tech Edge: Slight to CSU, based on team trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee

Nov 12 '20, 8:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | Colorado State vs Boise State
Play on: Colorado State +14 -104 at pinnacle

PICK - Colorado State +14
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 123
I'm going to take my chances here with Colorado State as a two touchdown dog against the Broncos. This is a bit of a tough handicap, as Boise State isn't really saying who is going to be available to start at quarterback.
The starter coming into the year was Hank Bachmeier and if he's healthy he will start, but he's missed the last two for undisclosed reasons (probably covid, which means he should be back for this one). Backup Jack Sears, who played well in their win over Air Force was hurt (concussion) early in last week's loss to BYU. The line to me suggests the books believe Bachmeier or Sears will be available.
Regardless if Bachmeier or Sears play, they won't have the services of starting running back George Holani, who is out with a knee injury. They got some other guys, but this is not nearly as good a running team without Holani.
Boise State's defense has also not played well. The Broncos defense was expected to be good and looked the part in a 42-13 win to open the season vs Utah State. That dominant defensive effort looks less and less dominant the more we see of Utah State. The Aggies only scored 7 in their next game at home against San Diego State and 9 the following week at Nevada.
When they needed their defense the most last week against BYU, they couldn't deliver. Boise State allowed 51 points and 573 yards to Zach Wilson and a high-powered Cougars offense. BYU is going to do that to a lot of teams, but the Broncos couldn't stop Air Force the week before, giving up 30 points and 484 yards.
Colorado State managed just 17 points in a 38-17 loss to open the season at Fresno State. Then out of nowhere put up 34 points on a good Wyoming defense in a 34-24 upset win. What was different?
The Rams made a switch at starting QB, replacing junior Todd Centeio with senior Patrick O'Brien. Not sure why O'Brien wasn't the starter to begin with. Centeio completed just 10 of 23 passes in his start vs Fresno. O'Brien went 18 of 26 for 255 and 2 scores. He also added a rushing TD.
That wasn't the only difference. Colorado State got back wideout Dante Wright, who missed their first game. Wright had 10 receptions for 146 yards. Wright gives them quite the 1-2 punch with stud junior tight end Trey McBride, who had 5 for 90 and 2 scores vs Wyoming.
I think Colorado State is going to be able to score and if the defense plays anything like it did against the Cowboys (6 Sacks, 14 TFL, 3 TO), they just might win this game outright. Give me the Rams +14!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams

Nov 12 '20, 8:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | Colorado State vs Boise State
Play on: Colorado State +14½ -110 at sportsbook

1* on Colorado State +14½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ryan Worden

Nov 12 '20, 8:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | Colorado State vs Boise State
Play on: Boise State -14 -109 at pinnacle

Before Boise's anticipated showdown with BYU last week it was announced starting QB Hank Bachmeier would miss his 2nd game under the Covid Protocol. After backup Jack Sears left with a concussion, BYU destroyed Boise State 51-17. Unfortunately for Colorado State, Bachmeier appears ready to go and Boise will be itching to get the bad taste out of their mouths.
Boise State won't have star running back George Holini for this one but backup Andrew Van Buren has shown he's a very good running back himself, running wild on Air Force before being bottled up by BYU thanks to the QB issue. With Bachmeier back and throwing the ball downfield to the Broncos skilled wideouts there should be wide open lanes for Van Buren.
Colorado State returned QB Patrick O'Brien from their 4-8, 2019 season but they have a new coach, new skill position starters and a suspect offensive line. The Rams will be able to put some points against Boise State's secondary but it won't be enough to matter as I expect Boise's offense to put up a huge number at home in front of their fans to make up for the dud against BYU. I'm Betting The Broncos. The Pick: Take Boise State.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Murphy

Nov 12 '20, 8:20 PM in 3h
NFL | Colts vs Titans
Play on: Titans +1 -106 at pinnacle

Thursday NFL Free play. My selection is on Tennessee over Indianapolis at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.
We've seen plenty of money flow in support of the Colts in advance of this Thursday night AFC South showdown. I believe it's the wrong move. The Titans bandwagon was virtually cleared following their loss to the Bengals in Cincinnati two weeks ago. However, Tennessee did successfully bounce back with a victory at home against the Bears last Sunday and I look for it to keep rolling here. The Colts got smashed in the mouth, so to speak, in a home loss to the Ravens last week. While I do like a lot about this Colts squad, I'm still not convinced QB Philip Rivers is the guy to lead them back to the playoffs. Quite simply, I believe this is another primetime game where we'll see Titans RB Derrick Henry put the team on his back and carry them to victory in Nashville. I can understand why we're dealing with a pk'em pointspread range here, but that doesn't mean I agree with it. Take Tennessee (8*).