Friday 11/13/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Laurel

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - SO - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $25000 Class Rating: 96

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS IN 2019 - 2020 OR CLAIMING PRICE $16,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 13 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 SOUND OFF 8/1
# 9 PHANTOM RO 3/1
# 5 NOMO RON 5/2

I've got to go with SOUND OFF and the potential return justifies the dangerous nature of the long odds. Appears to have a very good class edge based on the recent company kept. He has posted competitive figs under today's conditions and will probably fare well versus this group of horses in this race. Recent figures for the jock - 16 win percent - make this gelding stand out in this group of horses. PHANTOM RO - Ought to go to the front end and could never look back. With a reliable jockey who has won at a competitive 16 percent clip over the last 30 days. This has to be one of the top choices. NOMO RON - Has run very well when racing a dirt sprint race. Has to be considered here on the basis of the figures in the speed realm alone.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Churchill Downs - Race #5 - Post: 3:03pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#2 SCHOCHOH (ML=5/1)
#6 SAMSON LEE (ML=4/1)


SCHOCHOH - Morales rode this horse for the first time last out and comes right back in today's contest. Was in a $30,000 Maiden Claiming race at Churchill Downs last out. That race had an Equibase class figure of 88 and he is moving down right here. A certain strong challenger. SAMSON LEE - Taking a big class drop in class rating points from his Oct 14th race at Keeneland. Based on that info, I will give this horse the advantage. This jock/conditioner duo has been producing a very beneficial ROI, right at +37.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 GHOST FIGHTER (ML=3/1), #5 FLORIDA FLASH (ML=4/1), #4 CANVASBACK (ML=5/1),

GHOST FIGHTER - 3/1 is too short of a reward to take on most any entrant that has run poorly in back to back efforts. FLORIDA FLASH - Awfully difficult to wager on this mount when he hasn't been showing any gumption recently. CANVASBACK - Not much value on this entrant at the likely odds of 5/1.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #2 SCHOCHOH to win if you can get at least 3/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	2 with 6 with [3,5,7] Total Cost: $3
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

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Hunter Price

Nov 13 '20, 7:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Florida Atlantic vs Florida International
Play on: UNDER 41 -110

1* Free Pick on Florida Atlantic vs Florida International under 41 -110

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Bobby Conn

Nov 13 '20, 7:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Florida Atlantic vs Florida International
Play on: OVER 39½ -110

1* Free Play on Florida Atlantic/Florida International over 39½ -110

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Sal Michaels

Nov 13 '20, 7:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Iowa vs Minnesota
Play on: Minnesota +4 -113 at Draft Kings

Free Play on Minnesota +4 -113

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Cole Faxon

Nov 13 '20, 7:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Florida Atlantic vs Florida International
Play on: OVER 39½ -110

FREE PLAY on Florida Atlantic/Florida International over 39½ -110

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Mike Williams

Nov 13 '20, 7:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Florida Atlantic vs Florida International
Play on: Florida Atlantic -9 -110 at William Hill

1* on Florida Atlantic -9 -110

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Frank Sawyer

Nov 13 '20, 7:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Iowa vs Minnesota
Play on: OVER 57 -110

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR FRIDAY, 11/13:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play on my cut list for Friday is with Over the Total in the game between the Iowa Hawkeyes and the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Iowa (1-2) won their first game of the season last week with their 49-7 win against Michigan State. That game flew Over the 45 point Total which was the Hawkeyes’ 10th time in their last 14 games in November. Iowa has also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road. Minnesota (1-2) also won their first game of the season last week with their 41-14 win at Illinois. The Golden Gophers generated 541 yards in the victory — and they have played 8 straight games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Minnesota has also played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total as an underdog. Take the Over. Best of luck — Frank.

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Totals Guru

Nov 13 '20, 7:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Iowa vs Minnesota
Play on: OVER 58 -110

Free Total Annihilator On Iowa vs Minnesota over 58 -110

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Will Rogers

Nov 13 '20, 7:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Florida Atlantic vs Florida International
Play on: Florida Atlantic -9 -110 at William Hill

The set-up: Willie Taggart has FAU at 3-1, the Owls only loss coming on the road vs. Marshall (who is 6-0 and ranked No. 16 in the country.) The Owls used to be known for their offense under Lane Kiffin, but this year they've been getting the job done with great defensive play, holding the opposition to just 20 PPG. RB Malcolm Davidson has been a bright spot on the offense, averaging 7.5 yards per carry.
The picks: FIU has only played three games so far this year. In its last game back on October 23rd it lost 19-10 to Jacksonville State. The Golden Panthers are a poor 1-4 ATS in their last five at home and only 1-5 ATS in their last six conference games. The Owls on the other hand are a sharp 8-1 ATS in their last nine on the road and 6-0 ATS in their last six following an ATS loss. FIU has been out of action too long and I have a hard time seeing it keeping pace down the stretch. The FAU defense has yet to give up 20 points all season, so consider laying the points on the visitors in this matchup.
This is a 1* FREE PLAY on FAU.

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Info Plays

Nov 13 '20, 7:30 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | East Carolina vs Cincinnati
Play on: OVER 55 -105

1* FREE INFO PLAY on East Carolina vs Cincinnati over 55 -105

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Brandon Lee

Nov 13 '20, 7:30 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | East Carolina vs Cincinnati
Play on: East Carolina +28 -115 at jazz

PICK - East Carolina +28
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 129
This was dangerously close to making a premium play and I might end up throwing a little more on it before kickoff. This is the ideal spot to play against Cincinnati.
The Bearcats just beat SMU 42-13 as a 1.5-point dog, Memphis 49-10 as a 6.5-point favorite and Houston 38-10 as a 10-point favorite in 3 consecutive weeks. You don't beat the spread like that 3 weeks in a row and people not notice.
The narrative on Cincinnati has changed after these 3 games.
This is no longer a team that is flying under the radar, especially now that they are in the spotlight of a weekday game. Cincinnati is finally getting that national respect they have been chasing. They are a 28-point favorite against a ECU team they nearly lost to last year (won 46-43) as a 24-point favorite.
Not to mention a Pirates team that despite their 1-5 record, has not lost a game all season by more than the number. Their biggest deficit is a 23-point loss to UCF. A game that shows the backdoor ability of this team if needed, as they were down 41-7 and ended up losing 51-28.
The other thing you have to note with ECU is this game is everything to them. The Pirates are trying to change the culture under second year head coach Mike Houston. No bigger way to do that than go on the road and upset Cincinnati.
Here's what starting quarterback Holton Ahlers had to say about that,
“We know that we’re so close,” quarterback Holton Ahlers said after the Tulane game. “We’re as close as we’ve been since any of us have been here. We had a good game last year versus Cincinnati and we’re going to go up there and try to pull-off the upset against a good team there. We know we’re as close as we’ve been since we’ve been here. We all came here to change this program and we know we’re a game away, we’re a play away…I think that is what motivates us every single day. We feel it changing, we see it changing and we just got to keep pressing.”
Speaking of Ahlers, he's why you have to feel good about the Pirates chances here. He's thrown 3 TDs in 4 of his 5 starts (missed Navy game) and has a 45-18 TD-INT ratio in his 2+ years as a starter.
When you got a guy that can sling and a team that won't quit, it's hard to win by more than the number here.
With all that said, Cincinnati is an excellent football team. I just think it's human nature to relax a little after you finally get recognized for your accomplishments. I just don't think they bring their "A" game to this one. Give me East Carolina +28!

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Kenny Walker

Nov 13 '20, 7:30 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | East Carolina vs Cincinnati
Play on: East Carolina +28 -110 at Bovada

Free Pick on East Carolina

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Dustin Hawkins

Nov 13 '20, 7:30 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | East Carolina vs Cincinnati
Play on: OVER 55 -105

1 Dimer on East Carolina vs Cincinnati over 55 -105

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John Ryan

Nov 13 '20, 7:30 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | East Carolina vs Cincinnati
Play on: Cincinnati -27½ -108 at pinnacle

East Carolina vs No. 7 Cincinnati
7:30 ET, Friday, November 13, 2020
Cincinnati dominated their game and win against Houston and the pollsters respected them so much that they fell one place in this week’s poll. Such is 2020.
The betting line of 56 total and Cincinnati installed as a 27.5-point favorite implies a 42-14 Cincinnati win. My machine learning models project a near-100% probability Cincinnati will score at least 31 points in this matchup. Cincinnati is 26-3 SU and 20-7-2 ATS for 74% winning bets when scoring 31 or more points in games played since 2015. ECU is a money-burning 2-38 SU and 8-31-1 ATS for 21% winning bets since 2015. I see no other way to bet this game than to take the ranked and monumentally better Cincinnati Bearcats over the East Carolina Pirates.