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Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 11 college football picks, bets, nuggets
College football is in full swing in 2020, and it's unlike any season we have had before. One thing is familiar, though: "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica breaking down games as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on. How will the guys fare this week?
Here is your guide to Week 11 of the season from the two college football analysts. (Games postponed because of COVID-19 have been removed.)
Records
Stanford Steve (3-1 last week, 18-10 overall)
The Bear (0-3, 14-12)
The plays
East Carolina Pirates at No. 7 Cincinnati Bearcats (-27.5, 56.5)
Stanford Steve: This game last year was absolutely incredible, as the Bearcats came from behind to win a thriller 46-43. The Pirates have had a brutal season, topped by the worst beat of the year in Tulsa a couple of weeks ago, but I believe coach Mike Houston will have the Pirates competing. On the other side, the Bearcats will continue to need style points to stay in the conversation about top teams in the country. We expect a lot of points. Take the over.
Pick: Over 56.5 (Cincinnati 38, East Carolina 20)
No. 11 Oregon Ducks (-10, 57) at Washington State Cougars
Stanford Steve: I was blown away by the talent and playmaking ability of new Wazzu QB Jayden de Laura last week in his first start in a win at Corvallis. But I think this matchup with the Ducks puts the Cougs at a disadvantage on both lines of scrimmage. The Ducks took a while to get going last week, but I like them here.
Pick: Oregon -10 (Oregon 48, Washington State 24)
No. 13 Wisconsin Badgers (-4.5, 54) at Michigan Wolverines
The Bear: Yeah, we know, Michigan looked awful last week and hasn't won a game as an underdog under Jim Harbaugh. There is a possibility that Graham Mertz shreds what appears to be a shaky Michigan secondary. But we still don't know who is in and who is out for the Badgers, and this game reminds me a bit of the Notre Dame game last year at the Big House, when everyone assumed Michigan had checked out for the season, but then the Wolverines dominated the Irish. I wouldn't be surprised if Michigan shows up and tries to salvage a little something with a great performance against one of the Big Ten's best.
Pick: Michigan +4.5
No. 23 Northwestern Wildcats (-3, 50.5) at Purdue Boilermakers
The Bear: It's hard to knock anything Northwestern has done in getting to 3-0, but since the blowout win over Maryland, the Wildcats have been fairly fortunate. They were outgained by 125 yards by Nebraska, but the Huskers committed two costly turnovers deep in Northwestern territory in the second half. The Wildcats managed to beat Iowa with 273 yards, forcing three second-half turnovers and rallying from 17-0 down. Those margins can't continue, can they? We don't know much about Purdue, but even if Rondale Moore doesn't go, David Bell and the offense have done enough the first two weeks to back the Boilers as small home 'dogs.
Pick: Purdue +3
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herd (-23.5, 57)
Stanford Steve: Saturday is the 50th anniversary of the 1970 Marshall football team, and emotions run high when that team is mentioned in and around Huntington. The Thundering Herd haven't lost on this weekend since 2011. Expect big things for Doc Holliday's team as their quest for an undefeated season continues.
Pick: Marshall -23.5 (Marshall 54, Middle Tennessee 18)
South Carolina Gamecocks at Ole Miss Rebels (-10.5, 70)
The Bear: South Carolina had an extra week to prep for Texas A&M, and that's the performance we got? This is a D that has allowed more than 500 yards the past three weeks, and its two wins are against Vandy -- well, because its Vandy -- and Auburn because the Tigers couldn't stop turning the ball over. This could be a spot for the Ole Miss offense to put up a big number.
Pick: Ole Miss -10.5
Illinois Fighting Illini at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-6.5, 52)
Stanford Steve: I have seen both of these teams, and I think Rutgers is the better coached and more talented team. I'm curious how much time Rutgers spends on lateraling the football because this team is very, very good at it.
Pick: Rutgers -6.5 (Rutgers 31, Illinois 17)
Colorado Buffaloes at Stanford Cardinal (-6.5, 54.5)
The Bear: I came away with an OK feeling about the Cardinal after last week in Eugene. They moved the ball well at times but couldn't finish drives and had a miserable night in the kicking game. Colorado was a charity case for UCLA turnovers, and as long as Stanford doesn't turn it over like the Bruins did, it should be able to beat a CU team that was thought to be headed toward a winless season.
Pick: Stanford -6.5
Pittsburgh Panthers (-6.5, 51) at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
The Bear: Pitt looked great over the final three quarters last week, but given everything that has gone on in Tallahassee the past few days, I wonder how much FSU internal discontent factored into the Panthers' blowout win. The return of Kenny Pickett did help Pitt's offense, but I like the spot for Georgia Tech here coming off an idle week to catch its breath following consecutive games vs. Clemson, Boston College and Notre Dame. The last time Tech had an idle week, it put up its best performance of the year in a 46-27 win over Louisville -- the same Louisville team that Pitt beat by three. It takes a little leap of faith here to back a team that has struggled on offense, but I'm going to do it.
Pick: Georgia Tech +6.5
The Bear's money line parlay
$100 returns $83
North Carolina -500
Kentucky -900
USC -650
Cincinnati -4000
Florida -850
UCF -2500
Marshall -2000
The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line, in round robins and parlays
Georgia Tech +200
Purdue +125
Michigan +165
Bear Bytes
Zero ranked matchups
• This is the first November week since Week 12 of 2009 (Saturday, Nov. 21, 2009) in which there is not a single matchup of AP ranked teams. That week, four ranked teams lost to unranked teams (three on the road), and there were two other games in which the ranked team won by a field goal.
Ranked vs. unranked
• Ranked teams are 40-58-2 ATS this year vs. unranked teams and 31-47-2 ATS as double-digit favorites against unranked teams.
Miami at Virginia Tech
• Last year, there were two games in which a three-loss team was a home favorite over a team with zero or one loss. In both instances, the home favorite won. A 6-3 Iowa team beat 9-0 Minnesota 23-19, and 2-3 Miami beat 4-1 Virginia 17-9. This week, 4-3 Virginia Tech is a favorite over 6-1 Miami.
Penn State at Nebraska
• The Huskers have lost 15 straight games as underdogs dating to a 2017 win at Purdue. Nebraska has also lost nine straight games as a home underdog by an average of 23.4 PPG. Nebraska's most recent win as a home 'dog came in 2015 vs. Michigan State.
Arkansas at Florida
• Dating to last year, Arkansas has covered eight straight games as an underdog. This year, Arkansas has been a 'dog six times and won three of them outright, and if it weren't for an officiating error, it would be 4-2 SU as an underdog, with wins as a 13.5-point and 17-point 'dog.
UNLV at San Jose State
• The Spartans are 8-7 in their past 15 games, including 7-7 vs. FBS teams since the start of last year. From 2016 to '18, SJSU was 5-29 vs. FBS teams. The Spartans are 3-0 for the first time since 1982 and seeking their first 4-0 start since 1955.
Wisconsin at Michigan
• Under Jim Harbaugh, Michigan is 0-10 SU as an underdog (2-8 ATS). That includes a pair of double-digit losses to Wisconsin at Camp Randall. This is the first time Michigan is a home underdog to someone other than Ohio State under Harbaugh.
College football is in full swing in 2020, and it's unlike any season we have had before. One thing is familiar, though: "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica breaking down games as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on. How will the guys fare this week?
Here is your guide to Week 11 of the season from the two college football analysts. (Games postponed because of COVID-19 have been removed.)
Records
Stanford Steve (3-1 last week, 18-10 overall)
The Bear (0-3, 14-12)
The plays
East Carolina Pirates at No. 7 Cincinnati Bearcats (-27.5, 56.5)
Stanford Steve: This game last year was absolutely incredible, as the Bearcats came from behind to win a thriller 46-43. The Pirates have had a brutal season, topped by the worst beat of the year in Tulsa a couple of weeks ago, but I believe coach Mike Houston will have the Pirates competing. On the other side, the Bearcats will continue to need style points to stay in the conversation about top teams in the country. We expect a lot of points. Take the over.
Pick: Over 56.5 (Cincinnati 38, East Carolina 20)
No. 11 Oregon Ducks (-10, 57) at Washington State Cougars
Stanford Steve: I was blown away by the talent and playmaking ability of new Wazzu QB Jayden de Laura last week in his first start in a win at Corvallis. But I think this matchup with the Ducks puts the Cougs at a disadvantage on both lines of scrimmage. The Ducks took a while to get going last week, but I like them here.
Pick: Oregon -10 (Oregon 48, Washington State 24)
No. 13 Wisconsin Badgers (-4.5, 54) at Michigan Wolverines
The Bear: Yeah, we know, Michigan looked awful last week and hasn't won a game as an underdog under Jim Harbaugh. There is a possibility that Graham Mertz shreds what appears to be a shaky Michigan secondary. But we still don't know who is in and who is out for the Badgers, and this game reminds me a bit of the Notre Dame game last year at the Big House, when everyone assumed Michigan had checked out for the season, but then the Wolverines dominated the Irish. I wouldn't be surprised if Michigan shows up and tries to salvage a little something with a great performance against one of the Big Ten's best.
Pick: Michigan +4.5
No. 23 Northwestern Wildcats (-3, 50.5) at Purdue Boilermakers
The Bear: It's hard to knock anything Northwestern has done in getting to 3-0, but since the blowout win over Maryland, the Wildcats have been fairly fortunate. They were outgained by 125 yards by Nebraska, but the Huskers committed two costly turnovers deep in Northwestern territory in the second half. The Wildcats managed to beat Iowa with 273 yards, forcing three second-half turnovers and rallying from 17-0 down. Those margins can't continue, can they? We don't know much about Purdue, but even if Rondale Moore doesn't go, David Bell and the offense have done enough the first two weeks to back the Boilers as small home 'dogs.
Pick: Purdue +3
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herd (-23.5, 57)
Stanford Steve: Saturday is the 50th anniversary of the 1970 Marshall football team, and emotions run high when that team is mentioned in and around Huntington. The Thundering Herd haven't lost on this weekend since 2011. Expect big things for Doc Holliday's team as their quest for an undefeated season continues.
Pick: Marshall -23.5 (Marshall 54, Middle Tennessee 18)
South Carolina Gamecocks at Ole Miss Rebels (-10.5, 70)
The Bear: South Carolina had an extra week to prep for Texas A&M, and that's the performance we got? This is a D that has allowed more than 500 yards the past three weeks, and its two wins are against Vandy -- well, because its Vandy -- and Auburn because the Tigers couldn't stop turning the ball over. This could be a spot for the Ole Miss offense to put up a big number.
Pick: Ole Miss -10.5
Illinois Fighting Illini at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-6.5, 52)
Stanford Steve: I have seen both of these teams, and I think Rutgers is the better coached and more talented team. I'm curious how much time Rutgers spends on lateraling the football because this team is very, very good at it.
Pick: Rutgers -6.5 (Rutgers 31, Illinois 17)
Colorado Buffaloes at Stanford Cardinal (-6.5, 54.5)
The Bear: I came away with an OK feeling about the Cardinal after last week in Eugene. They moved the ball well at times but couldn't finish drives and had a miserable night in the kicking game. Colorado was a charity case for UCLA turnovers, and as long as Stanford doesn't turn it over like the Bruins did, it should be able to beat a CU team that was thought to be headed toward a winless season.
Pick: Stanford -6.5
Pittsburgh Panthers (-6.5, 51) at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
The Bear: Pitt looked great over the final three quarters last week, but given everything that has gone on in Tallahassee the past few days, I wonder how much FSU internal discontent factored into the Panthers' blowout win. The return of Kenny Pickett did help Pitt's offense, but I like the spot for Georgia Tech here coming off an idle week to catch its breath following consecutive games vs. Clemson, Boston College and Notre Dame. The last time Tech had an idle week, it put up its best performance of the year in a 46-27 win over Louisville -- the same Louisville team that Pitt beat by three. It takes a little leap of faith here to back a team that has struggled on offense, but I'm going to do it.
Pick: Georgia Tech +6.5
The Bear's money line parlay
$100 returns $83
North Carolina -500
Kentucky -900
USC -650
Cincinnati -4000
Florida -850
UCF -2500
Marshall -2000
The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line, in round robins and parlays
Georgia Tech +200
Purdue +125
Michigan +165
Bear Bytes
Zero ranked matchups
• This is the first November week since Week 12 of 2009 (Saturday, Nov. 21, 2009) in which there is not a single matchup of AP ranked teams. That week, four ranked teams lost to unranked teams (three on the road), and there were two other games in which the ranked team won by a field goal.
Ranked vs. unranked
• Ranked teams are 40-58-2 ATS this year vs. unranked teams and 31-47-2 ATS as double-digit favorites against unranked teams.
Miami at Virginia Tech
• Last year, there were two games in which a three-loss team was a home favorite over a team with zero or one loss. In both instances, the home favorite won. A 6-3 Iowa team beat 9-0 Minnesota 23-19, and 2-3 Miami beat 4-1 Virginia 17-9. This week, 4-3 Virginia Tech is a favorite over 6-1 Miami.
Penn State at Nebraska
• The Huskers have lost 15 straight games as underdogs dating to a 2017 win at Purdue. Nebraska has also lost nine straight games as a home underdog by an average of 23.4 PPG. Nebraska's most recent win as a home 'dog came in 2015 vs. Michigan State.
Arkansas at Florida
• Dating to last year, Arkansas has covered eight straight games as an underdog. This year, Arkansas has been a 'dog six times and won three of them outright, and if it weren't for an officiating error, it would be 4-2 SU as an underdog, with wins as a 13.5-point and 17-point 'dog.
UNLV at San Jose State
• The Spartans are 8-7 in their past 15 games, including 7-7 vs. FBS teams since the start of last year. From 2016 to '18, SJSU was 5-29 vs. FBS teams. The Spartans are 3-0 for the first time since 1982 and seeking their first 4-0 start since 1955.
Wisconsin at Michigan
• Under Jim Harbaugh, Michigan is 0-10 SU as an underdog (2-8 ATS). That includes a pair of double-digit losses to Wisconsin at Camp Randall. This is the first time Michigan is a home underdog to someone other than Ohio State under Harbaugh.
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