Service Plays Monday 11/16/20

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HITMAN | NFL Side - Monday, Nov 16 2020 8:15PM
276 CHI 3.0(-115) Bookmaker vs 275 MIN double-dime bet

Analysis: The look ahead on this game was Bears -1.5. Are we really ready to say that the Vikings need to be upgraded/Bears be downgraded a combined 4.5 points? I make this game Vikings -0.5, giving us clear value on Chicago.


The Vikings over the past few years have struggled outdoors on grass fields. The last time Minnesota has beaten the Bears by more then three points at Soldier Field was in the year 2000. Even in years where the Vikings have had far superior teams, they seem to always struggle playing in Chicago.


The Bears defense are not going to be bullied by Minnesota's strong run game. They just faced a similar offense in the Titans, that relies on the run game and play action, and the Bears held the Titans offense to 4.1 YPP. Kirk Cousins has struggled in all three of his games against the Bears as the Vikings starting quarterback.


The Bears offense is a disaster right now, but the Vikings defense is not something to write home about either. They are 24th in YPP allowed and 25th in scoring defense, and are still dealing with cluster injuries to their cornerbacks.


The Vikings just closed a 3 point favorite at HOME against Detroit, and now are laying 3 on the road against Chicago? Just too many points for the Vikings to be laying!

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Vernon Croy

6 Chi +2.5

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Robert Ferringo

7 Chi +2.5

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Anita Marks Daily Wager

Bears

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Stanford Steve-Daily Wager

Bears under dog of the week

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R.J. White

Westgate Las Vegas Super Contest

Chicago Bears (+2.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Vikings stock is as high as can be coming off two impressive wins where Dalvin Cook tallied 478 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns. Bears stock is as low as can be after losing three straight games, including an abysmal effort from Nick Foles' offense last week. But nothing is constant in the NFL, and I love this matchup for Chicago, a team that just limited the Titans offense to 228 yards and shut down Derrick Henry. Throw in Kirk Cousins absolutely flopping on Monday nights (0-9 ATS) and Chicago winning four straight against this Minnesota team, and it starts to look like this spread is well off the number it should be. See if you can get +3, but take the Bears either way.

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Micah Roberts

MIN -2.5
MIN @ CHI | 11/16 | 8:15 PM ESTTUE 11/10
The Bears have won the last four meetings in this series, but they have now lost three straight. The Vikings have won their last two and covered five of their last six. The success begins with more Dalvin Cook and less Kirk Cousins. When Cook gets at least 22 carries this season, he runs for 130-plus yards, has scored nine TDs and the Vikings covered all four games. Cook was not featured in any of the previous four meetings. I bet he is Monday, and the play is on the Vikings.

5-3 IN LAST 8 NFL PICKS | +170
9-6-2 IN LAST 17 MIN ATS PICKS | +236

5-3 IN LAST 8 CHI ATS PICKS | +169

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R.J. White

CHI +3
MIN @ CHI | 11/16 | 8:15 PM EST4:49 PM
Vikings stock is as high as can be coming off two impressive wins where Dalvin Cook tallied 478 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns. Bears stock is as low as can be after losing three straight games, including an abysmal effort from Nick Foles' offense last week. But nothing is constant in the NFL, and I love this matchup for Chicago, a team that just limited the Titans offense to 228 yards and shut down Derrick Henry. Throw in Kirk Cousins absolutely flopping on Monday nights (0-9 ATS) and Chicago winning four straight against this Minnesota team, and it starts to look like this spread is well off the number it should be. Get +3 while you can.

32-22-1 IN LAST 55 NFL PICKS | +760
35-12-3 IN LAST 50 MIN ATS PICKS | +2152

30-19-1 IN LAST 50 CHI ATS PICKS | +942

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Larry Hartstein

MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO | 11/16 | 8:15 PM EST
MINNESOTA -2.5
Kirk Cousins has a terrible history on Monday Night Football, and the Bears have beaten Minnesota four straight times. But the Vikings, led by Dalvin Cook, came out of their bye a different team. Since then they've beaten the Packers and Lions while averaging 31 points. I'll lay the small number against the crumbling Bears.

+1225 20-7-1 IN LAST 28 MIN ATS PICKS
+375 6-2 IN LAST 8 CHI ATS PICKS

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AAA'S NFC NORTH TOTAL OF THE MONTH - 8-0 MNF!

Pick:*Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears Over 43 (-105)

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Marc Lawrence

Monday Night 32-0 ATS Situation Play!

Chicago Bears

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Jeff Ma-
Bears

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Mike Tierney

MIN -3
MIN @ CHI | 11/16 | 8:15 PM EST11:39 AM
The week’s most overblown stat is QB Kirk Cousins’ 0-9 straight-up record on Monday nights. As a whole, the opponents were top-tier, and Cousins often played for the underdog. Neither applies this time, with Chicago in such an offensive doldrum that coach Matt Nagy has lateraled play-calling chores to an aide. The Bears average south of 20 points per game. Cousins’ Mondays have never been blessed with a RB like the Minnesota's Dalvin Cook, the premier rusher in the league.

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ESPN: Chalk

Sunday, November 15, 2020
Best bets for Monday Night Football: Vikings at Bears
By NFL Betting Insiders


The Minnesota Vikings are only 3-5, but they've won two straight, and they're favored over the 5-4 Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on Monday night.

ESPN betting experts Doug Kezirian, Joe Fortenbaugh and Anita Marks, ESPN analytics' Seth Walder and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz have teamed to offer their best bets.

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Sunday.

Minnesota Vikings (-3, 43.5) at Chicago Bears

Bears +3
Kezirian: The Bears' offense is painful to watch, but I think it's good enough for the cover. Matt Nagy handing over the playcalling duties to offensive coordinator Bill Lazor will shake things up for the better. More importantly, the Bears' defense is among the NFL's best and will keep the Vikings in check. I think Chicago will have a solid game plan to defend Vikings running back Dalvin Cook, who is now in the league MVP discussion thanks to his recent play. And for what it's worth, Kirk Cousins has been abysmal on Monday Night Football -- 0-9 straight up and against the spread. Maybe it's the big stage or maybe it's just coincidence? Either way, I don't feel like laying points with Cousins, especially since the spread has reached the key number of three. So I lean to the Bears.

Fortenbaugh: It's not a play that I love, but I'll side with the home underdog at +3 or better. After all, this is the same Vikings team that started the season 1-5, right? The key for the Vikings is Cook, who has 369 rushing yards in the past two games. But keep in mind that Chicago is tied for ninth in opponent yards per carry: If Cook can't get going, the pressure shifts to the shaky signal-caller, Cousins. As for the Bears' offense, Nagy handing playcalling duties over to Lazor can't possibly be a downgrade based on how this season has gone so far.

Marks: The Vikings have had success running the ball the past two weeks, but the Bears present a different challenge. Cousins and the Vikings' passing game will have to show up on Monday night, and he seems to struggle in prime time. If Derrick Henry had a tough time running on the Bears, so will Cook. Offensively, the Bears score the majority of their touchdowns via the pass, and I expect Jimmy Graham and Darnell Mooney to dominate their matchups.


Jimmy Graham longest reception under 16.5 yards
Walder: Out of the 39 tight ends with 100 routes run entering Sunday, Graham was ranked 32nd in average depth of target, at just 6.2 yards. Graham is running pivot routes (mostly hitches) 23% of the time, which is the second-highest rate among that same group of tight ends. Just 4% of pivot targets have gone for a 17-yard gain, the second-lowest rate among any of our route groups -- only behind short outside routes, which make up another 25% of Graham's routes. With Graham, there's always a chance he'll grab a jump ball, but I'm willing to bet that contested catch won't come very far downfield.

Dalvin Cook over 16.5 receiving yards
Schatz: The Bears' defense is very strong against running backs in the passing game (second in DVOA), but it still allows more yards than this per game. In fact, the Bears' defense has allowed at least 16 receiving yards to running backs in every game this year except one. Meanwhile, Cook has topped this prop in four of the past five games, just missing it with 16 receiving yards in the other game.

Darnell Mooney over 44.5 receiving yards
Marks: Mooney has developed good chemistry with Nick Foles. He received 11 looks last week, and Foles likes to take shots downfield. The Vikings' secondary can be beat on targets of 20 yards or more, and that is Mooney's wheelhouse.