Saturday 11/21/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-20-2020, 08:10 AM

Tech Trends - Week 12
Bruce Marshall

Week 12 of the College Football season kicks off on Tuesday, Nov. 17 with MACtion and concludes on Saturday Nov. 22.

We've identified betting trends and angles for key matchups between FBS and FCS matchups.

We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Saturday, Nov. 21

INDIANA at OHIO STATE (FOX, Noon)
Indiana has covered the spread in 11 of its last 14 games since 2019 (Indiana 6-1 as underdog in last seven).
Indiana has won four straight games.
The road team has covered the spread in four straight games played between both schools
Ohio State has failed to cover the spread in five of its last eight games after covering the spread in eight straight prior.
Ryan Day has covered the spread in six of his last eight home games.

Tech Edge: Indiana based on recent and series trends.

CLEMSON at FLORIDA STATE (ABC, Noon)
This used to be a big game not long ago!
Clemson has won five straight games when facing FSU, while covering the spread in three straight against the Seminoles.
Clemson is 2-6 vs the line this year.
Clemson is 1-2 vs the line when facing a conference opponent on the road (9-1-1 in previous 11 vs spread when facing conference opponent on the road).
Mike Norvell has lost six of his last eight games with FSU, and is 1-5 vs. the line when playing in Tallahassee.
FSU has lost six of its last eight games as the underdog.

Tech Edge: Clemson based on team and series trends.

WAKE FOREST at DUKE (ACCN, Noon)
Wake Forest has won large in two straight games when facing Duke.
Wake Forest has covered the spread in three of its last four games when facing Duke.
Wake Forest has covered the spread in five straight games, and six of its last seven games.
David Cutcliffe is 2-5-1 over his last eight conference home games vs. the spread (includes Notre Dame last year).

Tech Edge: Wake Forest based on recent and series trends.

ILLINOIS at NEBRASKA (BTN, Noon)
Scott Frost lost six of eight games as the favorite last year.
Frost is 4-11 vs. the points since last year.
Lovie Smith has lost six of his last seven games since 2019 (3-4 vs. the line in those).
Smith has gone UNDER the point total in eight of his last 11 games (series has gone way OVER last two years).

Tech Edge: Slight OVER based on recent point total trends.

APP STATE at COASTAL CAROLINA (ESPN2, Noon)
Appalachian State is 1-6 vs the line this season, and 1-7 in last eight on board.
Appalachian State is 3-0 getting points as the underdog since 2018.
Appalachian State has won three straight games when facing Coastal Carolina, and has covered in two straight against the Chanticleers.
Coastal Carolina has won seven straight games, and has covered the spread in nine of its last 13 games since mid 2019.
Appalachian State has gone UNDER the point total in six of its last seven games, though this game saw 93 total points last year.

Tech Edge: Slight to Chanticleers based on recent trends.

EAST CAROLINA at TEMPLE (ESPN+, Noon)
ECU is 5-3 vs the spread over last eight road games, 2-2 this season.
ECU has lost five straight games when facing Temple, covering one of those games (2019).
Temple has failed to cover the spread in five of its last seven games on board since late 2019 (backdoor cover against UCF last week).

Tech Edge: Slight to Pirates based on recent trends.

MICHIGAN STATE at MARYLAND (BTN, Noon)
Mel Tucker is 5-12 since 2019 and 6-15 over his last 21 games vs. the number on the board since 2018.
Maryland has covered the spread in three of its last four games when facing Michigan State.
The road team has covered the spread in three straight games played between both schools.

Tech Edge: Maryland based on recent trends.

HOUSTON at SMU (ESPNU, Noon)
Dana Holgorsen is 9-9 vs. the spread since last year, and has lost 11 of his last 18 games.
Holgorsen has failed to cover the spread in four straight, and five of his last six games as the underdog.
Houston covered against SMU last season, but the Mustangs covered four straight years prior.
Sonny Dykes has won seven of his last 10 home games vs. the points.

Tech Edge: SMU based on team trends.

FLORIDA at VANDERBILT (ESPN, Noon)
Vanderbilt has failed to cover the spread in 13 of its last 19 games.
Vanderbilt has lost eight of its last nine home games vs. the line when facing an FBS-school.
Florida has covered the spread in three straight games when facing Vanderbilt.

Tech Edge: Rice based on team trends.

LSU at ARKANSAS (SECN, Noon)
Arkansas has covered the spread in two straight games when facing LSU.
Arkansas has won six of its last seven games vs. the line.
LSU is 2-3 vs. the line this year.

Tech Edge: Arkansas based on team trends.

GEORGIA SOUTHERN at ARMY (CBSSN, Noon)
Georgia Southern has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last 10 road games.
Army has gone UNDER the point total in 13 of its last 21 games.
Georgia Southern has gone UNDER the point total in eight of its last 10 games.
This game might go fast!

Tech Edge: Slight Army and UNDER based on team trends and point total trends.

FIU at WESTERN KENTUCKY (ESPN3, 2 p.m.)
Western Kentucky has failed to cover the spread in 10 of its last 11 games.
FIU covered the spread in three straight games against Western Kentucky prior to last year's 20-14 loss.
Butch Davis has failed to cover the spread in 12 of his last 17 games since 2019.

Tech Edge: FIU based on recent trends.

RICE at NORTH TEXAS (ESPN3, 2 p.m.)
North Texas has failed to cover the spread in 18 of its last 23 games.
Rice has covered the spread in 12 of its last 20 games, and two straight when facing North Texas.

Tech Edge: Rice based on team trends.

UTSA at SOUTHERN MISS (ESPN+, 3 p.m.)
Southern Miss is 1-6 vs. the line this season.
Southern Miss has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 10 games since 2019.
The road team has covered the spread in three straight games
Southern Miss has gone UNDER the point total in 10 of its last 13 games

Tech Edge: UTSA and UNDER based on team and point total trends.

ARKANSAS STATE at TEXAS STATE (ESPN3, 3 p.m.)
Arkansas State has won five straight games by 18 or more points when facing Texas State (covered in four of those games).
Texas State has covered the spread in three straight home games.
Despite last week's high total, Texas State has gone UNDER the point total in 20 of its last 29 games.

Tech Edge: Arkansas State and UNDER based on team and point total trends.

WISCONSIN at NORTHWESTERN (ABC, 3:30 p.m.)
Northwestern has covered the spread in three straight games, and five of its last six games when facing Wisconsin.
Northwestern has covered or pushed the spread in seven straight games
Pat Fitzgerald has covered the spread in 17 of his last 27 games since 2016.
Wisconsin is 4-5 vs. the spread in last nine conference road games.

Tech Edge: Northwestern based on team and series trends.

CINCINNATI at CENTRAL FLORIDA (ESPN, 3:30 p.m.)
UCF has failed to cover the spread in 12 of its last 17 games since early 2019.
UCF has lost six of its last seven home games vs. number.
Cincinnati has covered the spread in four straight road games, and six of its last eight road games vs. the line.
Cincinnati won last year's meeting 27-24, but dropped three straight to UCF prior.

Tech Edge: Bearcats based on recent trends.

IOWA at PENN STATE (BTN, 3:30 p.m.)
James Franklin is 0-4 SU and vs. the line this year (2-7 over last nine since late 2019).
Penn State has won four straight games when facing Iowa.
Kirk Ferentz 16-8-1 vs the spread when facing an AP-ranked Top 25 Big Ten school on the road.

Tech Edge: Iowa based on recent trends.

CALIFORNIA at OREGON STATE (FS1, 3:30 p.m.)
California has covered the spread in seven of its last nine conference road games after last week's loss to UCLA.
Oregon State has seen the road team cover the spread in nine of its last 10 games.
Oregon State upset Cal in Berkeley last year, 21-17.

Tech Edge: Cal based on team trends.

TEXAS at KANSAS (ESPN2, 3:30 p.m.)
Les Miles is 0-6-1 vs. the line in last seven games, and 1-9-1 in last 11 on board.
Kansas has covered the spread in four straight games when facing Texas, and three straight against Tom Herman.
Kansas has gone OVER the point total in eight of its last nine games.
Texas has gone OVER the point total in 13 of its last 20 games.

Tech Edge: Slight Texas and OVER based on Kansas recent woes and point total trends.

SAN DIEGO STATE at NEVADA (CBS, 3:30 p.m.)
Nevada has won four straight games.
Nevada has covered the spread in three of its last four games.
Nevada has covered the spread in eight of its last 10 home games when facing an FBS-school.
San Diego State has gone UNDER the point total in 15 of its last 18 games since 2018.

Tech Edge: Nevada and UNDER based on team and point total trends.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE at TROY (ESPN3, 3:30 p.m.)
Troy has failed to cover the spread in 12 of its last 19 games since Chip Lindsey arrived.
Under Lindsey, Troy has failed to cover the spread in six of its last nine home games.
Middle Tennessee has covered the spread in four of its last six games.
Middle Tennessee has covered the spread in six of its last nine games as the underdog.

Tech Edge: MTSU based on team trends.

KENTUCKY at ALABAMA (SECN, 4 p.m.)
Alabama has covered the spread in three straight home games this year.
Kentucky has won seven of its last 10 games as the underdog.
Kentucky has gone UNDER the point total in five of its last seven games this year.

Tech Edge: Kentucky and UNDER based on team and point total trends.

KANSAS STATE at IOWA STATE (FOX, 4 p.m.)
Kansas State has won nine of its last 12 games as the underdog since last year.
Kansas State has won 24 of its last 32 games as the underdog.
Kansas State has covered the spread in five of its last six games this season.
Iowa State has lost five of its last six home games as the favorite.
Kansas State has covered the spread in two straight games when facing Iowa State.

Tech Edge: Wildcats based on team trends.

VIRGINIA TECH at PITTSBURGH (ACCN, 4 p.m.)
Virgnia Tech is 1-3 vs the line when playing on the road this year.
Virgnia Tech is 1-5 vs the spread over its last six road games.
Piittsburgh covered five straight games when facing Virginia Tech prior to last year's 28-0 loss to the Hokies.

Tech Edge: Pitt based on team and extended series trends.

GEORGIA STATE at SOUTH ALABAMA (ESPNU, 4 p.m.)
GSU has gone OVER the point total in six of its last eight games.
South Alabama has gone UNDER the point total in 15 of its last 20 games.
South Alabama is 10-5-1 over its last 16 games vs. the line

Tech Edge: Slight Jaguars and UNDER based on team and point total trends.

UNLV at COLORADO STATE (FS2, 5:30 p.m.)
UNLV has lost four straight games, and has failed to cover the spread in four straight games.
UNLV has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 11 conference road games.
Colorado State is 5-3 vs. the line when facing a conference opponent at home.
Colorado State has won and covered the spread in four straight games when facing UNLV (dating back to 2011).

Tech Edge: Colorado State based on team and extended series trends.

TENNESSEE at AUBURN (ESPN, 7 p.m.)
Tennessee has no wins or cover in four straight games after winning eight straight prior.
Gus Malzhan is 7-3 vs. the spread in last 10 home games.
Tennessee has gone UNDER the point total in 17 of its last 24 games.
Auburn has gone UNDER the point total in nine of its last 12 games.

Tech Edge: Auburn and UNDER based on team and point total trends.

MISSISSIPPI STATE at GEORGIA (SECN, 7 p.m.)
Mississippi State has failed to cover the spread in five straight games since opening win over LSU.
Mike Leach has failed to cover the spread in 16 of his last 21 games dating back to late 2018.
Georgia has seen the home team win five straight games vs. the line (Florida game considered neutral).
Kirby Smart has gone UNDER the point total in 14 of his last 20 games since last year.
Mississippi State has gone UNDER the point total in five straight games.

Tech Edge: UNDER and Georgia based on point total and team trends.

SAN JOSE STATE at FRESNO STATE (CBSSN, 7 p.m.)
San Jose State is 4-0 vs. the line this year, and 13-4-1 over its last 17 games.
Fresno State is 3-1 vs. the line, but 5-9-1 vs. the spread since early 2019.

Tech Edge: Spartans based on team trends.

OKLAHOMA STATE at OKLAHOMA (ABC, 7:30 p.m.)
The road team has covered three straight games played between both schools, and seven of the last eight games as well.
Jeff Gundy has won 11 of his last 14 games as the underdog.

Tech Edge: Cowboys based on team and series trends.

MISSOURI at SOUTH CAROLINA (SECN Alt, 7:30 p.m.)
Missouri has seen the home team win five straight games vs. the line.
Missouri is 0-3 vs. the line when playing on the road.
Missouri has failed to cover the spread in eight straight road games going back to 2018.
South Carolina has covered the spread in four of its last seven conference home games.

Tech Edge: South Carolina based on team trends.

LIBERTY at N.C. STATE (ESPN3, 7:30 p.m.)
Liberty has won nine straight games.
Liberty has covered the spread in six of its last eight games, and nine of its last 12 games.
If getting points, note Hugh Freeze is 5-1 in his last six games as the underdog.
Liberty is 2-0 vs. the line when facing the ACC this year.
N.C. State is 4-0 vs. the line at home this season, and 6-2 overall.
N.C. State has gone OVER the point total in nine of its last 12 games.

Tech Edge: Slight Liberty and OVER based on recent and point total trends.

MICHIGAN at RUTGERS (BTN, 7:30 p.m.)
Jim Harbaugh is 8-13 vs. the spread over last 21 games (no wins or covers in last three games).
Michigan has lost two of its last three vs. the line when facing Rutgers since the 78-0 win in 2016.
Rutgers has covered two of its last four games this year.

Tech Edge: Rutgers based on recent trends.

ARIZONA at WASHINGTON (FOX, 8 p.m.)
Kevin Sumlin covered in opener vs. USC, but 3-9 vs. the spread last year and 2-4 when facing a conference opponent on the road.
After failing to cover against Oregon State last week, Washington is now 3-9 vs. the points when facing a conference opponent at home (1-9 exlcuding Washington State).
Washington won and covered the spread in Arizona last year, 51-27.

Tech Edge: Washington based on recent Arizona woes.

NAVY at SOUTH FLORIDA (ESPNU, 8 p.m.)
USF has seen the road team cover six of its last seven games (0-2 at home vs. the line).
USF has failed to cover the spread in 10 of its last 12 home games when facing an FBS-school.
Navy is 2-01 vs. the line when playing on the road, and is 7-2 vs. points away from Annapolis since early last year.

Tech Edge: Navy based on team trends.

WASHINGTON STATE at STANFORD (FS1, 11 p.m.)
Washiington State has won four straight games when facing Stanford, and has covered the spread in five srtaight games when facing the Cardinal.
Stanford has failed to cover the spread in 12 of its last 15 games.

Tech Edge: Washington State based on team trends.

BOISE STATE at HAWAI'I (CBSSN, 11 p.m.)
Boise State is 3-3 in last six road games as the favorite (went 36-16 in 52 games prior).
Hawai'i has lost 25 of its last 36 home games vs. the line since 2015.

Tech Edge: Hawai'i based on team trends.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-20-2020, 11:06 PM

Race of the Week: Sunshine Millions Turf Preview at GP West

November 19, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk
$60,000 SUNSHINE MILLIONS TURF PREVIEW
Saturday, November 21, 2020

The Lead:
A quartet of Sunshine Millions Preview grass stakes have been rescheduled for this weekend after wet weather wreaked havoc on Gulfstream Park West a week ago. Saturday's reshuffled lineup now includes the Sunshine Millions Turf and Juvenile Fillies Turf Previews. The Sunday card will include the Filly and Mare Turf and Juvenile Turf divisions. The 1-1/16 miles SM Turf Preview will be our focus and has lured a strong field of 10 looking to prepare for the Jan. 16 Sunshine Millions Day card at Gulfstream Park.

Field Depth:
Defending champion GALLEON MAST leads a group of listed stakes winners that also includes SECOND MATE, SCRAPS, MONFORTE and MUGGSAMATIC. This is an evenly matched group on class.

Pace:
With speed from the rail (HERO UP) and the widest post 10 (MAX K.O.), along with SIR SEAMUS and MONFORTE in-between, this pace absolutely should cook. While late runners are never advantaged, they do get their best chance for success in situations like this with a very hot pace. I'll be leaning heavily on the closers.

Our Eyes:
GALLEON MAST and SECOND MATE ran 1-3 in this race a year ago, separated only by a neck. SECOND MADE has missed the board in a light, 2-race campaign since. GALLEON MAST has dropped 5 races in a row, not the worst streak you'll ever see, but notable with a horse who was 23-for-33 in the exacta lifetime entering 2020. GALLEON MAST's recent rider Emisael Jaramillo winds up on SIR SEAMUS, a winner in 3 of his last 4. But GALLEON MAST returns to pair with Paco Lopez, who rode him to last year's win as well as his only exacta finish of the current season. Certainly GALLEON MAST appeals most among this trio of contenders.

No one comes into the Turf hotter than MONFORTE, a winner in 6 of his last 7. The speedster has won the Bear's Den and Showing Up in recent starts, the latter just 2 weeks prior at Gulfstream Park West. MONFORTE will be under a lot of early pressure the way this pace shapes up, and he's never come home particularly fast in his races. I'll try to upend him in this spot because horses like all-or-nothing router MAX K.O. will be applying heat from the outside.

MUGGSAMATIC loves to win races, 10 of 29 lifetime and 4 of his last 8. He's been well-traveled for sharp stakes shopper Mike Maker in recent months, traveling to Monmouth and Kentucky Downs before returning to his Florida base. This is a local stakes winner over the course who is a solid finisher and will get plenty of pace to run down. He absolutely fits.

VENEZUELAN HUG did beat older horses when breaking his maiden at Gulfstream Park in April, but he's raced otherwise only against fellow 3-year-olds. His company lines in recent starts in the G2 Pennine Ridge and G1 Belmont Invitational Derby are significant, though overmatched in both. His pair of open-company allowance wins with big 102 and 101 BRIS late pace figures are what point him as a live wire late in the SM Turf Preview. Trainer Danny Gargan always has to be considered with his high-percentage offerings, and jockey Angel Arroyo was hot last week (25% wins a huge $2.97 ROI for every $1 bet. He had route winners pay $26 and $57).

Most Certain Exotics Contender: MUGGSAMATIC is a classy sort, course winner and has the right style to fit the race shape.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender: VENEZUELAN HUG should be running late, and his best rally is faster than these. Looking for a price around 6 or 8-1.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $40 win VENEZUELAN HUG. $30 exacta box MUGGSAMTIC and VENEZUELAN HUG.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-20-2020, 11:07 PM

Gryder the Rider & Del Mar Late Pick 4 Play

November 20, 2020 | By Johnny D
Jockey Aaron Gryder recently bid ‘adios’ to travelling around in circles on the backs of horses. He says ‘it’s time.’ His decision. Unlike other professional athletes, jockeys aren’t ‘released’ by a team. Unclaimed on waivers. Victims of expired contracts. No one in particular informs jockeys when it’s time to hang up tack. They’re independent contractors…kind of…hired out afternoons, like limos or bicycles. Ultimately, when fewer and fewer people are willing to enlist you for a ride around the city or the park, that’s when you know it’s time to call it quits. Gryder, thankfully, stops a bit short of that day.

The life of a jockey is challenging in so many ways. For example, how’d you’d like to have to stand on a scale every day before work and have your weight then announced to the world? Gryder is 5’ 6” and that’s on the tall side for a jockey. He learned more a lifestyle and less a diet to cope but still knew how to ‘pull’ a few pounds on race days by jogging uphill in a sweat suit or by doing yoga, boxing or Pilates, he told Channel Guide Magazine in 2009.

And then there’s the danger. Jockeys can’t think about that and perform well. But the threat’s still there, lingering in the air like the faint smell of burnt rubber. Gryder’s fortunate. 50-years-old and joints moving pretty well, thank you, because…and now that he’s retired it can be said out loud…he’s been lucky to avoid serious injury. No knock on wood required. Why push the envelope?

Gryder’s tale is interesting. Born in West Covina, Ca, he first attended the races at Santa Anita with grandparents when he was less than half a decade old and spent time on the monkey bars in the track’s infield playground. He remembers immediately being attracted to the sport. At 13, an age when some coddled kids are met by parents while disembarking school busses on cul de sacs, Gryder moved to live, work and learn at former jockey Rudy Campas’ farm.

Campas was a perfect teacher. An affable 26-year riding veteran, retired from the saddle just two years before the fortuitous meeting with the youngster one morning at Santa Anita, Campas had been a Southern California fan favorite. He was short, even for a jockey, and round, built like a bowling ball. One afternoon, toward the end of his journeyman career, Rudy had failed to win on an odds-on choice around the bullring at the Pomona Fair. During the stretch-long walk back to the jockey’s room in front of the grandstand and apron he was heckled mercilessly. Inside, he complained loudly in his signature nasal tone, “Why the hell are they yelling at me? They should boo the filly. She’s the one that didn’t try.”

From across the room, the mercurial and often fined perennial Pomona riding champ Paco Mena offered advice, “Hey, Rudy, do what I do. Give them the finger. It costs you money, but you feel better.”

Campas and farm life taught Gryder what he needed to know and more. He didn’t just learn to ride; he earned a degree in horsemanship. Up and at ‘em at 4 a.m., taking care of the horses, Gryder learned about equines from the ground up and those lessons were invaluable when finally paid to partner on their backs.

Always a polite ‘yes, sir,’ ‘yes, ma’am’ kind of teenager, Gryder found early success riding races as an apprentice at Aqua Caliente in Tijuana, Mexico. It was a development path apprentice Corey Nakatani soon also followed to Hall of Fame consideration success. Naturally, the gringo winning ‘all the races’ south of the border attracted attention and Gryder was recruited to join exclusive riding ranks at Santa Anita, Hollywood Park and Del Mar that included Hall of Fame riders like Bill Shoemaker, Laffit Pincay, Eddie Delahoussaye, Chris McCarron, Sandy Hawley and more.

This writer was a member of the 1987 Santa Anita publicity staff when a young Aaron Gryder won, perhaps, the most memorable race of his career—a maiden event aboard a filly named Tom’s Sweetie. Never heard of her? No surprise. She didn’t do much other than to provide a young jockey with a Hallmark moment.

The morning before Tom’s Sweetie won at Santa Anita, Gryder’s father, who had been visiting SoCal to watch him ride, was about to drive back home to Sacramento. He noticed Aaron also leaving the house at the same time. He backed up his car, got out and spoke to his boy. “I love you, son. Go win a race for me tomorrow.”

That evening the 42-year-old father suffered a heart attack and died in a fatal car accident. Understandably, the teenage jockey was shattered by the loss of his loving dad but went to the track the next afternoon because a winning ride was the last thing his father had requested.

At that point this writer pretty much knew the kid would be a success. And he has been on and off the track. Here’s wishing he finds another foothold in this game/sport/business where he can share his experiences and his character. You have to admit, we can use the help.

Below is one man’s opinion regarding Del Mar’s Saturday Late Pick 4 sequence:

RACE 6 (5:57PM ET) // MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT // 6 1/2 FURLONGS (DIRT)

Late Pick 4 kicks off with an interesting 2-year-old Maiden Special Weight sprint at six and one-half furlongs.

#3 A Real Hero is a first-time starter that hails from the hot (3-5 at Del Mar) Michael McCarthy stable and has been working every seven days. He attracts the capable Umberto Rispoli to ride. Check workout reports for more ‘yeahs’ or ‘nays.’
#5 Empire House has a nice series of Golden Gate works for trainer Jonathan Wong. The trainer’s solid with first-time starters up north but hasn’t established a mark in the south, yet.
#6 Exotic West is a first timer from the Bob Baffert barn. Need any more info? Ok. He’s got a few Santa Anita works that are interesting, including a 1:00 from the gate and a 1:14 also from the gate. He blew out in 47 from the gate in his last prep for this. He’s the 9/5 morning-line favorite.
#7 Peachtree Road makes her second start for Richard Mandella and jockey Mike Smith. The outside post helps this filly that showed some run before folding in a five and one-half furlong debut in August behind the talented Princess Noor. Expect better this time.

RACE 7 (6:26PM ET) // OPTIONAL CLAIMING // 5 FURLONGS (TURF)

Five panels sprinting on the turf always is a challenging affair. This is a turf test in which nearly every starter has a poor turf record. One exception is #8 Caerulean.

#2 Hartel attracts Prat for Peter Miller—they bat 30% overall. Can’t sail the Pick 4 ship without this runner. Hartel hasn’t raced in about a year—so there’s that--but he departed competition showing a mid-pack running style and some fast figures.
#5 Combat Zone had trouble in his last race and usually can be counted on for an in-the-money performance at a decent price. He’s just 1 for 17 lifetime but has been in the money better than 50% of the time. He’ll be running late.
#8 Caerulean has speed and is dropping in for a tag for the first time out of state-bred maiden allowance races. The outside box is a plus as this one figures to show speed in an attempt to wire the field. There’s not a great deal of other speed signed on.

RACE 8 (6:55PM ET) // MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT // 6 1/2 FURLONGS (DIRT)

Seems like there’s plenty of pace in this six and one-half furlong event, so we’ll look for something from off the pace.

#2 Chipper always takes money and will again with jockey Flavien Prat for trainer Mark Glatt. Together they bat about 20% overall. The 3-year-old gelding has a nice even style of running that should work well in here.
#3 Brace for Impact is the 5/2 morning-line favorite with 4 seconds out of 6 tries. He’s got speed in a race that seems to have plenty of that commodity. May be worth taking a stand against him.
#4 Lil Richards Bello has failed as favorite the last 2 times out—second in both races on the main track. His only turf try wasn’t awful. He’s second choice on the morning line at 3-1.
#7 Square Root starts for Doug O’Neill and Reddam Racing with jockey Mario Gutierrez. Blinkers were added last out going one mile on turf for a speed and fade performance. First out also was on turf. Switch to the main track for this and we could see a wake-up performance.

RACE 9 (7:24PM ET) // CLAIMING // 1 1/16 MILES (TURF)

Pretty wide-open finale to close out the Saturday Late Pick 4. Here are a few suggested ways to go but you might also want to add something we’ve missed.

#1 Justin’s Quest could ride the rail to an exotics finish. He’s got 5 seconds from 12 starts, so he’s comfortable in the exacta. This is his first try on turf.
#4 Worthy Turk was second at the level last out, races for the always hot Peter Miller barn, has won 2 of 6 over Del Mar turf, and has not been worse than third in as many tries at the distance. All good stuff.
#7 Contagion gets a 7-pound weight break with apprentice Alexis Centeno. Toss his last when he broke from 11 of 12 going a mile on grass. He’s 1-3 on turf at Del Mar. Another with an outside exotic look.
#8 French Getaway fits in here, likes Del Mar turf (2-6) and the distance (2-3). He was second at about this level last out and a close third three back. Stuff to want on your side.
#11 Mithqaal is on the Also-Eligible list at this writing but would have to be considered if drawing in. The post is no bargain, but the 7-year-old has a win in four tries over Del Mar turf and has been no worse than third in four starts at the distance. Trainer Jonathan Wong hasn’t sparkled at Del Mar yet this fall, but he’s batting 27% overall and must be respected.

$0.50 DEL MAR SATURDAY LATE PICK 4 TICKET ($48.00)

Race 6: 3, 5, 6, 7
Race 7: 2, 8
Race 8: 2, 4, 7
Race 9: 4, 7, 8, 11

Race On!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-21-2020, 06:08 AM

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis

November 21, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
This is the last big card at the Meadowlands in 2020 with purses totaling almost $2.5 million dollars. There are eight stake races scheduled. The 0.50 Early Pick 4 begins in Race 6 and every leg is a stake. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

1-Sorella (3-1)-This is a 3-year-old facing older and that usually is a tough task. But this filly has had an outstanding season and should get a great trip from the rail. Has won 4 of 6 at the Big M with a 150.2 mark in East Rutherford this season and could get a pocket trip.
3-Plunge Blue Chip (9/5)-Has been off for 3 weeks and that should help. Likes the Big M and has been in the money in 10 of 13 starts with 4 wins. Svanstedt will probably leave and look to control the race with the program chalk When Dovescry starting from post position #6.

Race 7

1-Fire Start Hanover (2-1)-Razor sharp Nifty Norman pupil has won 8 of 12 this year. Likes to get on the engine and not look back. That will be script to follow tonight. Many will single and there is a strong case to do so.
3-Notorious Pink (5-1)-Edged out #11-JK Alwaysbalady last week and has come up with determined efforts in every start this year except the Crown Final on a sloppy track from post 9. Tetrick can work a good trip from this spot and should be right there at the wire.

Race 8

1-Caviart Ally (5-1)-The program chalk draws the 9 hole and will be using a few in this leg. This mare loves the Big M hitting the board in 18 of 23 with 10 wins. McCarthy will put in striking range and could surprise at a square price.
4-Shartin N (3-1)-Has been chasing Kissin In The Sand this year and has a chance to get some revenge with the benefit of this post draw. Does good work at the Big M, shows a 146.4 mark there and did win this race 2 years ago.
5-Peaky Sneaky (8-1)-Here is the lesser of the 2 Takter pupils but that is not a slight when the stablemate is Kissin In The Sand. Sneaky won the Crown Final and this 3-year-old is well worth a swing at 8-1.
9-Kissin In The Sand (2-1)-This is the finale for an outstanding mare who has won 6 straight. It's off to the breeding shed after tonight and she knows how to win from post 9. I'm shooting against her and more often than not that's a mistake. She could grind out the entire mile and win but it could be a challenge to get the top.

Race 9

2-Abuckabett Hanover (4-1)-Tuned-up nicely with a 54.2 back half and was able to stay on stride. Betting Line 2-year-old could beat this bunch if minds manners. McCarthy should have this colt forwardly placed throughout.
3-Summa Cum Laude (9/5)-Hasn't been able to beat Perfect Sting but did dead heat with him in the Crown Final and this is a really nice colt. Winner of 2 straight has been perfect at the Big M (4-4) and is the one to beat.
4-Southwind Petyr (5-1)-Came 2nd in the Matron Final and took the long way around. This is a good post for Petyr because he lacks early speed. Does have a win and a 2nd place finish in 2 starts here. Sears returns tonight and he knows well. Looking for a stalking trip and if there is a speed duel chances for success go up at a nice price.

0.50 Early Pick 4

1,3/1,3/1,4,5,9/2,3,4
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-21-2020, 06:09 AM

Jeff Siegel's National Best Plays - 11/21/20

November 21, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Best Plays for Saturday, November 21, 2020

Gulfstream Park West Fifth Race. Post time: 2:33 ET
3 – Venezuelan Hug (5-1)

Was no threat in the Belmont Derby-G1 last month but is much more realistically spotted today in this Florida-bred middle distance turf affair at Gulfstream Park West that promises a favorable race flow to compliment his closing style. The son of Constitution prefers patient handling and in a field loaded with pace-types the D. Gargan-trained 3-year-old should have every chance to produce a winning late kick. At 5-1 on the morning line he’ll offer wagering value in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.

*

Woodbine Eighth Race. Post Time: 4:58 ET
1 – Field Pass (2-1)

Exits a series of much tougher races and today faces a group his best can handle in this year’s edition of the Ontario Derby-G3. A graded stakes winner in his only prior outing over a synthetic surface, the son of Lemon Drop Kid is favorably drawn on the rail and projects to enjoy an ideal ground-saving, pace-stalking trip. With speed figures good enough to win, he’s the logical top pick and is worth a play at or near his morning line of 2-1.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-21-2020, 06:42 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Aqueduct - Race #1

#2 Lucky Lizzie	Mott miss didn't run an inch on debut on the dirt then moved to the turf and woke up, and now hasn't been seen in 363 days, but this is an 11% long layoff barn, there's no one here to fear, and that last 11/15 work says to take notice here; upset special.
#3 Snicket	Legendary money burner is 6-0-4-1 and has failed twice at odds-on, the last time at 1-5, so sure, she's best on paper and the most likely winner, but we've said that many times before and she's still trying to get her picture taken; backwheel time, again.
#4 Beautiful Karen	Heavy hitter was a good 3rd in her return off the long break, so that gives her a big recency edge on the pick, and she should also move forward off that run too, but the figure was slow, which means her margin for error is a slim one; tread lightly here.
Race Summary	The price will be right on the 2, and it needs to be as she is certainly looking up on the 3 and 4, but the risk-reward is there on a gal with a lot of upside, who faces a pair of favorites who aren't exactly that easy to trust, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially to kick off the early Pk5 as well, since she'll get overlooked, which means a win would really blow things up right off the bat.

Aqueduct - Race #4

#6 Hieroglyphics	Class riser has won two straight and fits nicely with these on paper, so while he has to answer the class question, the price will be right to find out; hat trick time.
#3 Value Engineering	The chalk will be bet hard for Brown and Klaravich, and he's the most likely winner here, though at a short price he's got very little room for error; trying to beat.
#7 Mr Alec	Major player didn't fire in the G3 last time, so this drop makes sense, and his prior two were sharp, though that beatdown could have a lingering effect; not sold on.
Race Summary	You'll get fair value on the 6, even though he's been winning for fun, as the favorites will be thought to be a bit too classy, but the pick is getting good again, and was once a real runner, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he's in raging form and may be able to take another jump, which would put him right on the line with the 3 and 7.

Aqueduct - Race #9

#3 Postulation	The speed will be loose here and has run big in the past, and the two favorites don't have a lot of early lick, so at a big number, here's hoping he forgets to stop; bombs away on the engine.
#4 Sadler's Joy	G1 winner won this last year and is the clear horse to beat off the 3rd in the G1 last time, but his lack of speed is a real worry, and he's no win machine either; runs out of room in the lane.
#10 Red Knight	Heavy hitter has beat the pick in two straight and is another who will roll late, but he's also another with no speed, and a wide draw too, so he's going to be left with a lot to do; will be rolling.
Race Summary	There's just no one here to keep the 3 honest, so he'll clear on the lead, and while he's not as good as the 4 or 10, the race flow really points to him, and he'll be a big, big price too, so give him a look in all the slots, and in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he could get brave, and a win would really blow up both sequences.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-21-2020, 06:43 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #6

#2 Let's Play Nine	Didn't show much in the comeback run while trying stakes company, and he should be able to control the tempo here while stretching around two turns.
#7 Tattooed	Drops after outrunning his 45-1 price in a stakes try last out, and his baseline two-turn effort is good enough to win in this spot.
#4 Galerio	Should get a really nice run tracking the top choice, and while this probably the guy to beat, the price might get too short compared to his realistic chances of winning this.
Race Summary	Let's Play Nine should be quick enough to find the front, and he can bounce back after never getting involved against stakes company off the layoff last out.

Laurel Park - Race #7

#5 Patriotic Punch	Reliable finisher has proven to be a really sharp claim for this team, and she proved a good fit at this level last time out when finishing second. Better price today?
#7 Fille d'Esprit	Would probably want a bit better than the ML offering here, as she's taking another significant step here into open company, but it's tough to argue with her overall form.
#10 Escape Fund	Draws well to spy the speed, and while her overall form is spotty, her best stuff stacks up well with these at what should be a fair price.
Race Summary	Patriotic Punch has been going really well since being claimed, and if she's offering anything like the 4/1 ML price, that'd be a fair gamble with these.

Laurel Park - Race #8

#3 Amen Corner	Think there is a mild chance that the pace all comes back late in this spot, and this guy should be a nice number with a chance to come running late.
#5 Pretty Good Year	Finisher tends to show up late, and he's another who would benefit if any kind of early battle developed.
#4 Beyond the Victory	Doesn't need the lead, but he does do his best work there, and he might be a bit better-suited to a one-turn trip.
Race Summary	Amen Corner has spotty form, but his best stuff would fit here and the race shape may end up suiting his style well enough to make some noise at a price.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-21-2020, 06:44 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1

#5 REVOLT	Sat good trip, lacked stretch kick, batting 7-for-16 this year.
#3 DENALI SEELSTER	Took money, ran evenly with Lasix, switches pilots again.
#7 MENLO PARK	Upstaged series of seconds with last-to-first move from post 8.
Race Summary	Revolt took back early to find a seat, worked out a perfect cover trip, but was out-kicked by the favorites in the stretch. He won 3 of his previous 5 starts from farther off the pace. Play 5-3 and 5-7 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #7

#3 HIDDEN DELIGHT	Gets class relief, moves outside in, should be in hunt late.
#2 BETTOR B GOING	Late kick produces two seconds and a third in his last four starts.
#10 HIGHLANDBEACHLOVER	Missed time ‘sick,’ draws post 10, but still merits respect in repeat bid.
Race Summary	Hidden Delight, no factor against better from posts 7 and 8, won his only race this year prior to that, pacing a :27.3 final quarter to prevail in a blanket finish. He’s as good as any in here and offers fair value. Play 3-2 and 3-10 exactas.

Meadowlands - Race #13

#10 CHEYENNE RYAN LEE	Chased 8-1 winner, held second through fast back half mile.
#7 ANOTHER DAILY COPY	Sped clear from post 10, re-emerged late from pocket to just miss.
#2 BILLY BADGER	Paced evenly but willingly in well-bet try from the rail.
Race Summary	Hoping Cheyenne Ryan Lee or Another Daily Copy can duplicate their big efforts from post 10. Cheyenne Ryan Lee finished second through a :54.3 back half and offers the better value. Another Daily Copy cleared easily to the lead, then battled back late from the pocket. Play a 2-7-10 exacta box.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-21-2020, 06:45 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park West - Race #5

#7 Galleon Mast	Hit in the board in his last three stakes and his last win came in the 2019 edition of this race; has a good enough late move to prevail.
#8 Monforte	Won seven of his last 10, including his last two; won the Showing Up Stakes here last time and can mix it up with older rivals.
#10 Max K.O.	Was razor sharp in a gate to wire score last out here and can be troublesome to any others trying for the lead.
Race Summary	Galleon Mast is a proven battler from the back of the pack and can benefit from a rapid pace.

Gulfstream Park West - Race #7

#1 Viva La Reina	Cruised in her only start, which was a race contested in the slop after being taken off the turf; daughter of Animal Kingdom can answer the call in this turf event and will dig in vs. these.
#4 Sweet Souper Sweet	Closed strongly and won a stakes race at Presque Isle last out; was unsuccessful in her only turf try, which came at Saratoga.
#2 Quinoa Tifah	Was an easy winner last out in the slop and had tried the toughs at Saratoga; big player vs. Florida-breds.
Race Summary	Viva La Reina was an impressive maiden winner and can battle well from the inside here; should have no problem adapting to turf.

Gulfstream Park West - Race #8

#1 Money Come	Set the pace and was caught late vs. similar last time; won here three races back and can lead throughout.
#7 Young Raymond	Has a good late run and can be the one to look for if a rapid pace develops; gets Lopez and is worth watching in the final furlong.
#5 Slick Star	Hit the board in his last five races and comes off a good second; has the speed to be in the hunt at once.
Race Summary	Money Come is extremely fast and can be in good position along the rail; his best effort wins it.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-21-2020, 08:42 AM

NCAAF

Week 12

13 of Saturday’s best games
UCLA (1-1) @ Oregon (2-0)
— UCLA lost its road opener 48-42 at Colorado, after trailing 35-7 at one point.
— Bruins split their first two games, scoring 75 points.
— UCLA has 7 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— Bruins have 61 returning starts on the offensive line.
— UCLA’s junior QB is making his 22nd career start.
— Under Kelly, Bruins are 6-5 ATS as a road underdog.

— Oregon won its first two games, scoring 35-43 points.
— Ducks ran ball for exactly 269 yards in both games.
— Oregon has 4 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— Ducks have 21 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Oregon has a soph QB with two starts.
— Under Cristobal, Ducks are 6-7 ATS as a home favorite.

— Chip Kelly was 46-7 coaching Oregon from 2009-12.
— Oregon won seven of last eight series games.
— Favorites covered five of last six series games.
— Bruins lost their last six visits to Eugene (2-4 ATS).
— Pac-12 underdogs are 6-3 ATS.

Iowa (2-2) @ Penn State (0-4)
— Iowa won its last two games, by combined score of 84-14.
— Hawkeyes’ two losses are by combined total of five points.
— Hawkeyes have 7 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Iowa has 108 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Hawkeyes have a soph QB this year, with 4 starts.
— Since 2013, Iowa is 17-5-1 ATS as a road favorite.

— Penn State lost its first four games, giving up 34.8 ppg.
— Nittany Lions have been minus in turnovers every game (-6).
— PSU has 8 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Penn State has 85 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Nittany Lions yanked their starting QB (16 starts) LW; if they play the soph backup, it’ll be his first college start.
— Since 2012, Penn State is 4-2 ATS as a home underdog.

— Penn State won its last six games with Iowa, last three by 5-6-2 points.
— Hawkeyes are 1-3-1 ATS in last five visits to Happy Valley.
— Big 14 home underdogs are 5-9 ATS this year.

Wake Forest (4-3) @ Duke (2-6)
— Wake won three of its last four ACC games, after an 0-2 start.
— Deacons were outgained 742-606 in their 59-53 loss at UNC last week.
— Wake has 3 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— Deacons have 59 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Wake has a sophomore QB with 16 career starts.
— Deacons 2-6 ATS in last eight games as a road favorite.

— Duke split its last four games, after an 0-4 start.
— Blue Devils ran ball for 363-274 yards in their two wins; they’re 0-6 running ball for 185 or fewer yards.
— Duke has 7 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— Blue Devils have 102 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Duke has a junior QB with eight starts; he has 7 TD’s, 12 INT’s.
— Blue Devils are 8-4-1 ATS in last 13 games as a home underdog.

— Wake Forest won three of last four games vs Duke, scoring 98 points last two series games.
— ACC home underdogs are 12-6 ATS.

Cincinnati (7-0) @ Central Florida (5-2)
— Cincinnati is 6-0 vs I-A teams, with all six wins by 14+ points.
— Bearcats ran ball for 313-242-341-298 yards in last four games.
— Bearcats have 6 starters back on offense, 9 starters back on defense.
— Cincinnati has 52 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Cincy’s junior QB has 32 career starts.
— Cincinnati is 5-7 ATS in last 12 games as a road favorite.

— Central Florida won last three games, scoring 44.3 ppg.
— Last week was first time UCF gained fewer than 632 yards.
— Knights have 8 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— UCF has 62 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Knights have a sophomore QB with 19 career starts.
— This is first time in four years that UCF is a home underdog.

— UCF lost 27-24 at Cincy LY, their first loss in last four series games.
— Bearcats lost 38-13/24-3 in last two visits to Orlando.
— Favorites covered four of five series games.
— AAC home underdogs are 4-6 ATS this season.

Appalachian State (3-0) @ Coastal Carolina (x-x)
— App State won its last five games, since a 17-7 loss at Marshall.
— ASU allowed 15 ppg in its last four games.
— App State has 8 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— ASU has 115 returning starts on the offensive line.
— App State has a senior QB with 33 career starts.
— ASU covered its last four games as a road underdog.

— Coastal won its three Sun Belt home games by a combined 104-43.
— Chanticleers allowed total of 20 points in last three games.
— Coastal has 8 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— Chanticleers have 109 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Coastal’s freshman QB has 16 TD passes, one INT.
— Chanticleers are 3-6 ATS in last nine games as a home favorite, 2-1 TY.

— App State won last three series games, scoring 38.7 ppg.
— ASU won 23-7 (-14.5) in its last visit here, two years ago.
— Sun Belt home favorites are 8-9 ATS this year.

Indiana (4-0) @ Ohio State (3-0)
— Indiana won its first four games, scoring 33.8 ppg.
— Hoosiers won their road games, 37-21/24-0.
— Indiana threw for 662 yards in their last two games.
— Hoosiers have 8 starters back on offense, 9 starters back on defense.
— Indiana has 46 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Indiana has a soph QB with 10 career starts.
— Last 2+ years, Hoosiers are 5-0 ATS as a road underdog.

— Ohio State won their first three games, scoring 47.3 ppg.
— Buckeyes are running ball for 211 yards/game.
— Buckeyes have 6 starters back on offense, 4 starters back on defense.
— OSU has 57 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Ohio State’s junior QB has started 17 games.
— Under Day, OSU is 6-3 ATS as a home favorite.

— Ohio State won its last 19 games with Indiana, but the Hoosiers covered seven of last nine series games.
— Indiana covered its last five games in the Horseshoe.

Liberty (8-0) @ NC State (5-3)
— Liberty won its first eight games, with two ACC wins (Syracuse/Va Tech)
— Flames gave up 215-201 YR vs Southern Miss/Virginia Tech.
— Liberty scored 30+ points in all six of their I-A games.
— Flames have 5 starters back on offense, 4 starters back on defense.
— Liberty has 96 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Liberty’s junior QB is an Auburn transfer; he has started 8 games.
— Since 2010, Flames are 15-6 ATS as a road underdog.

— NC State allowed 44+ points, in all three of their losses.
— Wolfpack is 5-0 when they allow less than 44 points.
— Wolfpack has 10 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— State has 62 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Wolfpack has used couple of QB’s this year.
— Since 2018, State is 8-6 ATS as a home favorite.

— These teams haven’t me in the last 20 years.

Michigan (1-3) @ Rutgers (1-3)
— Michigan lost its last three games, giving up 38 ppg.
— Wolverines split their two road games, losing 38-21 at Indiana.
— Last two games, Michigan is minus-4 in turnovers.
— Michigan has 5 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— Wolverines have only 17 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Michigan is playing a soph QB, with four career starts.
— Under Harbaugh, Wolverines are 9-11 ATS as a road favorite.

— Rutgers lost its last three games, allowing 36.3 ppg.
— Scarlet Knights allowed 541 rushing yards in their last two games.
— Rutgers lost both its home games, 37-21/23-20.
— Scarlet Knights have 8 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— Rutgers has 34 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Rutgers’ junior QB has started six games.
— Scarlet Knights are 0-4 ATS in last four games as a home underdog.

— Michigan won its last five games with Rutgers (3-2 ATS), winning last two by a combined score of 94-7.
— Michigan covered one of its last three visits to the Garden State.

USC (2-0) @ Utah (0-0)
— USC won its first two games, by a combined total of five points.
— Trojans gave up a combined 836 yards in the two games.
— USC threw for 706 yards in their two wins.
— Trojans have 8 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— USC has 64 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Trojans have a soph QB has started 13 games.
— Since 2015, USC is 10-7 ATS as a road favorite.

— This is the season opener for Utah, the last I-A team to play a game.
— Utah has 4 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— Utes have 60 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Utah has a new quarterback this year.
— Since 2012, Utah is 6-4 ATS as a home underdog.

— Home side won last seven USC-Utah games.
— Trojans lost their last three visits to the Beehive State.

Washington State (1-1) @ Stanford (0-2)
— WSU split its first two games, giving up 71 points.
— Wazzu allowed 1,032 TY in those two games.
— Coogs have 6 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— WSU has 77 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Coogs have a freshman QB with two starts; he is playing really well.
— Wazzu is 11-6 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog.

— Stanford lost its first two games, 35-14/35-32.
— Cardinal allowed 928 yards in those two games.
— Cardinal has 9 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— Stanford has 72 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Cardinal has a junior QB with 8 career starts.
— Since 2016, Stanford is 8-13 ATS as a home favorite.

— Washington State won last four series games, scoring 39 ppg.
— Coogs covered four of last five visits to Palo Alto.

Wisconsin (2-0) @ Northwestern (3-0)
— Wisconsin won its first two games, by a combined 90-18.
— Badgers outgained first two opponents, 938-437
— Badgers have 6 starters back on offense, 9 starters back on defense.
— Wisconsin has 50 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Wisconsin has a freshman QB, with two starts.
— Since 2015, Badgers are 15-4 ATS as a road favorite.

— Northwestern won its first four games, allowing 14 ppg.
— Last three games, Wildcats gained only 297.3 ypg.
— Wildcats have 10 starters back on offense, 9 starters back on defense.
— Northwestern has 78 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Northwestern has a senior QB with 27 career starts.
— Wildcats are 4-7-1 ATS in last 12 games as a home underdog.

— Underdogs covered five of last six series games.
— Underdogs are 4-1 ATS in series if spread was single digits.
— Wisconsin won three of last four series games.
— Badgers covered once in their last eight visits to Evanston.

Oklahoma State (4-1) @ Oklahoma (5-2)
— Oklahoma State won five of six games, losing 41-34 at home to Texas.
— OSU’s last three games were decided by total of 14 points.
— State allowed 21 or fewer points in all its wins.
— Cowboys have 7 starters back on offense, 10 starters back on defense.
— OSU has 71 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Cowboys’ soph QB has started 16 games.
— OSU is 6-2 ATS in last eight games as a road underdog.

— Oklahoma won its last four games, scoring 52.5 ppg.
— Sooners scored 35-30 points in their two losses.
— Oklahoma allowed 40 ppg in first three Big X games, 17 ppg in last three.
— Sooners have 8 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— Oklahoma has 75 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Sooners have a freshman QB with 7 career starts.
— Oklahoma is 7-8 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite.

— Sooners won last five series games, scoring 48 ppg.
— State covered three of last four visits to Norman.
— Big X home favorites are 12-8-1 ATS this season.

Tennessee (2-4) @ Auburn (4-2)
— Tennessee lost its last four games, giving up 37.5 ppg.
— Vols score9 31-35 points in first two games, 14.5 ppg in last four.
— Vols have 9 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— Tennessee has 115 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Vols have a senior QB with 31 starts.
— Tennessee is 6-3 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog.

— Auburn hasn’t played in three weeks.
— Tigers won their last two games, scoring 35-48 points.
— Auburn is 0-2 when they score less than 30 points.
— Tigers have 5 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— Auburn has 56 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Tigers have a soph QB with 19 career starts.
— Auburn is 5-2 ATS in last seven games as a home favorite.

— Auburn won six of last seven series games.
— Vols covered three of last four visits to Auburn.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-21-2020, 08:43 AM

College Football Odds Week 12: Opening lines and sharp money
Patrick Everson

Wideout Whop Philyor and No. 10 Indiana hope their surprising season continues Saturday at No. 3 Ohio State. But oddsmakers aren't seeing it, as the Buckeyes are 20.5-point favorites in the Big Ten clash.

College football odds for Week 12 are on the betting board and getting action, with a few games of note. At the top of the list, perhaps surprisingly, is upstart and undefeated Indiana traveling to the Horseshoe to face fellow unbeaten Ohio State.

FanDuel Sportsbook provided insights on college football Week 12 opening lines, early line movement, sharp money and public betting for this week's matchups.

These are the current College football Week 12 odds for the premier games on the schedule.

UCLA at (13) Oregon odds
Opening line
Oregon -14.5, Over/Under 64.5

Why the line moved
The Ducks opened -14.5 at FanDuel and haven't budged through Monday night, meaning early action is probably light, considering that 71 percent of bets and 83 percent of money are on Oregon. The total is already up to 66.5, with 90 percent of bets and practically every dollar on the total running to the Over.

(7) Cincinnati at Central Florida odds
Opening line
Cincinnati -4.5, Over/Under 61.5

Why the line moved
This line is pinned at Cincinnati -4.5 Monday night, with no movement so far, although point-spread ticket count and money are both running well beyond 9/1 on the Bearcats. The total is seeing similar betting splits on the Over, but the number hasn't yet moved off 61.5.

(4) Clemson at Florida State Odds
Opening line
Clemson -31.5, Over/Under 67.5

Why the line moved
Trevor Lawrence returns from a bout with COVID-19, and that's led to three more points being added to this spread, with Clemson already up to -34.5. Seventy percent of early tickets and 88 percent of early dollars are on the Tigers. The total is down a point to 66.5, with 67 percent of bets on the Over, but 70 percent of money on the Under.

(10) Indiana at (3) Ohio State odds
Opening line
Ohio State -19.5, Over/Under 64.5

Why the line moved
It might be the Game of the Week in college football, and yet it's a hefty double-digit spread. The Buckeyes moved to -20.5 Sunday evening, and that's where the number is Monday night, with ticket count more than 6/1 and money beyond 3/1 on Ohio State. The total is stuck at 64.5, but early tickets and early money are running more than 9/1 on the Over.

(19) USC at Utah Odds
Opening line
Southern California -3.5, Over/Under 56.5

Why the line moved
The Trojans dropped a point to -2.5 Monday afternoon at FanDuel and are still there Monday night, despite 2/1 tickets and practically every early dollar on USC. The total is up a point to 57.5, with tickets 3/1 and, much like the spread, almost all the money on the Over.

(12) Wisconsin at (20) Northwestern odds
Opening line
Wisconsin -6.5, Over/Under 45.5

Why the line moved
Wisconsin is a mere 2-0, but the second of those games was last weekend's 49-11 boatracing of Michigan at the Big House. So it's no surprise to see the Badgers up to -8.5 Monday night at FanDuel, with tickets and money 9/1 on Wisconsin. The total went two points the other way, to 43.5, though tickets are 6/1 and money 3/1 on the Over.

Kentucky at (1) Alabama odds
Opening line
Alabama -29.5, Over/Under 57.5

Why the line moved
Alabama got an unplanned bye last week due to LSU dealing with COVID-19 issues. The initial move on this line was toward the big 'dog Kentucky, as 'Bama dipped to -28.5. On Monday night, the line is at Alabama -30.5 on two-way action, with the Crimson Tide taking 53 percent of bets and 54 percent of money. The total is up to 58.5, with ticket count nearly 4/1 and almost every dollar so far on the Over.

(5) Florida at Vanderbilt odds
Opening line
Florida -30.5, Over/Under 68.5

Why the line moved
The Gators are up a point to -31.5 at FanDuel on Monday night, with 71 percent of tickets and 80 percent of money on Florida. The total bounced around a bit early, from 68.5 to 66.5 and back to 68.5, with 72 percent of bets and 91 percent of money on the Over.

(14) Oklahoma State at (17) Oklahoma odds
Opening line
Oklahoma -9.5, Over/Under 58.5

Why the line moved
The Bedlam line is on the move early at FanDuel, down to Sooners -5.5 Monday night, though 56 percent of bets and 77 percent of dollars are landing on Oklahoma. The total moved from 58.5 to 60.5, then to 59.5, with ticket count and money both more than 9/1 on the Over.

Kansas State at (16) Iowa State odds
Opening line
Iowa State -7.5, Over/Under 49.5

Why the line moved
It's another Big 12 line making a big early move, though in this case, the number is stretching out, with Iowa State up to -11.5 at FanDuel. Through Monday night, tickets and money are both in the 3/1 range on the Cyclones. The total opened at 49.5 and hit 50.5 a couple of times, then headed the other way, and it's at 46.5 Monday night. Ticket count is 3/1 on the Under, and practically all the early money is on the Under, as well.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-21-2020, 08:44 AM

Kevin Dolan

Event: (207001) Hamilton Academical at (207002) Dundee United
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: November 21, 2020 10AM EST
Play: Dundee United -135
PLAY: DUNDEE UNITED ML -135

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-21-2020, 08:44 AM

Steve Merril

Event: (357) Indiana at (358) Ohio State
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 21, 2020 12PM EST
Play: Ohio State -20.5 (-110)
-Indiana is a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS, but that has come against an extremely weak schedule
-Hoosiers' 33.8 ppg on offense is very misleading as they average just 4.9 yppl and 2.7 ypr
-Ohio State comes in fresh and ready off a bye; expect a big effort against a ranked team
-Buckeyes average 7.5 yards per play at home vs. defenses that allow just 5.7 yppl overall
Play OHIO STATE (-).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-21-2020, 08:44 AM

Gianni the Greek

Event: (375) Rice at (376) North Texas
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 21, 2020 2PM EST
Play: Rice -1.0 (-110)