Saturday 11/21/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nick Borrman

Event: Dortmund at Hertha Berlin
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: November 21, 2020 2PM EST
Play: Dortmund (-150)
Germany Bundesliga
Dortmund is off to a strong 5-2 start with a 15:5 goal differential and have the 2nd most xP in the league thanks to #4 ranked offense and #2 ranked defense. When most people think of Dortmund, they immediately think offense, which is true. But most people forget just how good they can be defensively as well.
Last year they were 4th in the table in xGA and really improved in the 2nd half of the season. They allowed just 16 goals in the final 17 games of the year after allowing 24 in the first 17 games. Besides their 2-3 home loss to Bayern in their last game, they have only allowed one other team to score on them this season as they already have five clean sheets thru seven games.
Hertha Berlin won 3-0 at Augsburg in their last game before the international break, snapping a five game winless run. They are right in the middle of the table in terms of xG and xGA just like they finished last year where they finished #10 in the table.
By the numbers you can see how they faired last year and so far this season:
Dortmund Hertha Berlin
Last Year
+43 Goal Diff -11 Goal Diff
1.89 xG | 1.23 xGA 1.30 xG | 1.63 xGA
This Year (7 games)
+10 Goal Diff +0 Goal Diff
2.07 xG | 0.73 xGA 1.55 xG | 1.56 xGA
Dortmund has won three straight over Hertha Berlin including both games last season and I like their chances of doing it again on Saturday.
TAKE DORTMUND TO WIN (ML or -0.5)
Line Parameter: 4% to -0.75. Pay up to -170 to get -0.5 or the ML or pay up to -140 to get -0.75

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ralph Michaels

Event: (385) UTSA at (386) Southern Miss
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 21, 2020 3PM EST
Play: Southern Miss +9.0 (-110)
POWER RATING PLAY
Southern Miss + UTSA
Line is too high for this Road Runner squad as an Away Fav.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Oskeim Sports

Event: (385) UTSA at (386) Southern Miss
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 21, 2020 3PM EST
Play: UTSA -9.0 (-110)
Southern Mississippi has had the most tumultuous season that I can remember in this business. The Eagles' head coach unexpectedly resigned after their season-opener and the interim head coach left for Austin Peay shortly thereafter. Meanwhile, Southern Mississippi lost its starting quarterback, Jack Abraham, to a season-ending injury and backup Tate Whatley is questionable for Saturday's game with a concussion. There is a distinct possibility that third-string quarterback Trey Lowe, a West Virginia transfer who was 6-of-14 for 67 yards last week, will be under center.
UTSA is one of the most improved teams in the nation and enters off a 52-21 win over UTEP. The Road Runners amassed a school-record 600 yards and allowed a season-low 246 yards in the contest. Quarterback Frank Harris accounted for a career-high five touchdowns and the Road Runners trail UAB by just 1/2 game in the Conference USA West.
With Southern Mississippi standing at 1-9 ATS in its last ten games overall, lay the points with the Road Runners and invest with confidence.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Carmine Bianco

Event: (200061) West Bromwich at (200062) Manchester United
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: November 21, 2020 3PM EST
Play: Manchester United -1.5 (+100)
EPL - West Bromwich at Manchester United
Quick Synopsis: Round 9 of the PL season and Manchester United still seek their first home win after 3 losses and a scoreless draw and welcome a West Brom side that sit bottom 3 in the league after their promotion. United picked up a much needed win after a home loss to Arsenal and an away upset loss to Turkish side Basaksehir in Champions League play. They'll come back from the international break and should have Rashford back from a shoulder injury to help spark an attack that has been outscored 10-2 at home. West Brom's side took a hit during the international break with some of the squad testing positive for covid and have yet to name a travelling side at write up. Ahead of a home game in midweek against the same Turkish side we'll look for United to pick up their first home win of the season in convincing fashion.
The play is Manchester United -1.5 +100

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Oskeim Sports

Event: (379) California at (380) Oregon State
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 21, 2020 3PM EST
Play: Oregon State +3.0 (-105)
My math model favors California by 2.89 points in this game so the line is fair but the Golden Bears are a money-burning 6-19-1 ATS as road favorites. California has had a tumultuous start to the 2020 campaign as its season opener against Washington was canceled and, likewise, its Week Two game against Arizona State was canceled.
However, California head coach Justin Wilcox agreed to a last-minute scheduling change that replaced Arizona State with UCLA. The hastily-scheduled game kicked off Sunday at 9:00 a.m. (Rose Bowl); the Bears took the field having had just 43 hours to prepare for the Bruins. The result was unsurprising; California lost 34-10.
The Bears hit the road for the second consecutive week to face an undervalued Oregon State squad that is extremely well-coached under Jonathan Smith. The Beavers enter off competitive losses to Washington State and Washington but are 6-3-1 ATS in their last ten conference games.
Oregon State is a profitable 11-5-1 ATS in this series, including 5-1 ATS when playing with revenge. Grab the points with the Beavers as a live home underdog.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Leonard

Event: (415) Tennessee at (416) Auburn
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 21, 2020 7PM EST
Play: Auburn -11.0 (-110)
416 Tennessee at Auburn
Volunteers have a weak 118.3 passer rating, but opponents have produced a 153.48 passer rating. That puts the Volunteers behind the eight ball every time a quarterback drops back into the pocket. Despite playing only two ranked opponents Tennessee is being outgained by 1.09 yards per play. Over the last 14 quarters the Vols have been outscored 123 to 37! This is a team that simply hasn't played up to its ability.
Auburn has the much better running game which should be a sizable difference in this one. Not a fan of Bo Nix but he’s far better than anything the Volunteers have behind center. The Tigers have been fortunate with fumble luck, losing just 1 of 7 fumbles. But fading Tennessee looks like a must play at this time of the season.
PLAY AUBURN

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Bryant

Event: (383) San Jose State at (384) Fresno State
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 21, 2020 7PM EST
Play: Total Over 60.0 (-110)
PLAYABLE at 62.5 or better
San Jose State's offense has picked it up, averaging 33.3 points in its last three games. The Fresno State offense has been even better, averaging 38 points in its last three games. This Bulldogs offense is by far the best offense this San Jose State defense will have faced thus far this season. Fresno State's offense has produced under two different QBs, Nick Nash and Nick Starkel. Sometimes Nash and Starkel are on the field at the same time, creating more confusion for opposing defenses. My number for this game is 65, so I see more than enough value to pull the trigger.
PLAY OVER 60.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Prez

Event: (401) Oklahoma State at (402) Oklahoma
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 21, 2020 7PM EST
Play: Oklahoma -7.0 (-105)
ESPN's Gameday will be in Norman, Oklahoma this Saturday for the 2020 version of Bedlam. It should come as no surprise that the Sooners have dominated the Cowboys in this rivalry. Oklahoma has won five in a row and are 4-1 ATS in those five matchups.
Over the last 17 games in this Oklahoma series, the Cowboys have only defeated the Sooners twice. Furthermore, the Cowboys are a “less-than” 5-12 against the spread.
Throw all of the results from past events out the window when these two teams meet Saturday. The 2020 COVID craziness appropriately fits this season's situation where the Sooners take the field in the role of being the shortest home favorite vs OSU since 2012.
There are a handful of reasons why the Sooners enter at a short price. First, in a typical college football season for both teams, this game is played in early December. And with that later date, Oklahoma State typically has another loss, sometimes two and more. With that being the case the Sooners enter with two or three more regular-season wins before the game takes place and as a result, are typically double-digit chalk.
The value in this game rests on the Sooners sideline. The advantages that OU sport in this 2020 matchup are many. The largest gap of talent between these two Big 12 schools is at quarterback. OSU signal-caller Spencer Sanders squares against freshman Spencer Rattler. The Sooners young signal-caller was the No. 1 dual-threat quarterback in most recruiting polls in 2019. After a rough September tango with nerves Rattler has proven himself to Riley and his Boomer-Sooner teammates.
Sooners minus the touchdown and extra point offer significant gameday value to Rattler and Riley

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin Dolan

Event: (345) Mississippi State at (346) Georgia
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 21, 2020 7PM EST
Play: Mississippi State +25.0 (-110)
PLAY: MISSISSIPPI STATE +25

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin

Event: (353) Missouri at (354) South Carolina
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 21, 2020 7PM EST
Play: Missouri -6.5 (-110)
I am dismissing the power ratings here as the circumstances are clearly more important than any numbers. Missouri doesn't have a full roster as they've had some virus issues, but if this game is going off as scheduled on Saturday, I've got to go with the Tigers. South Carolina is a train wreck at this point. Bill Muschamp was let go over the weekend, which was a bit surprising as far as the timing goes. I think he was gone at season's end if So Car didn't finish strong, and that was becoming mightily unlikely given their recent form. But it was still a shocker for the team itself, and all the info I'm getting is negative as far as the immediate reaction. Mike Bobo will handle the reigns for the rest of the season. He was fired at Colorado State last season, so he's got a so-so resume and he wasn't getting great results as the main offensive guy this season. Bobo is not a candidate for the full time job. The school appears zeroed in on the current HC's at Louisiana an Coastal Carolina. So this staff is likely already getting their resumes together for new positions next season. There was also fallout on the roster as four players opted out, including what I would say were their best two defensive players. Mizzou is nothing special to be sure as their efficiency numbers are actually pretty terrible. But I think the Gamecocks are a pure fade here and even with the line inflated, I'm on Missouri to win this one by a good sized margin.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Mejia

Event: (423) Boise State at (424) Hawaii
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 21, 2020 11PM EST
Play: Total Under 57.5 (-110)
The Broncos had a number of players affected by COVID-19, even being forced to play an offensive lineman on the defensive line due to a lack of numbers in their win over Colorado State last week. Boise State will have QB Hank Bachmeier in the mix for a second straight week after he missed a pair of games after testing positive for the coronavirus but I think we'll see the visitiors ride the run game and look to keep their defense off the field as often as possible at Aloha Stadium. Hawai'i has a solid QB in Chevan Cordeiro but hasn't been able to get its passing game on track. Currently, a running back is leading the Rainbow Warriors in receiving yards. With rain part of the forecast, look for a low-scoring final game of the night in college football's Week 12. Ride the under in a matchup you can catch on CBS College Sports Network.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn

Nov 21 '20, 10:15 AM in 17m
Soccer | Real Madrid vs Villarreal
Play on: Villarreal +187 at betonline

1* Free Play on Villarreal +187

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Janus

Nov 21 '20, 10:15 AM in 17m
Soccer | Real Madrid vs Villarreal
Play on: Villarreal +187 at betonline

1* Free Sharp Play on Villarreal +187

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc's Sports

Nov 21 '20, 12:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | LSU vs Arkansas
Play on: LSU +2 -110 at BMaker

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #393 LSU Tigers over Arkansas Razorbacks (12p.m., Saturday, November 21 SECN) Just do not believe Arkansas is all the way back. LSU had a postponement last week and that should help them especially on the defensive side of the football. Arkansas got run over by Florida last week and they have lost 4 straight games to LSU. The Razorbacks do not have an explosive offense and thus I do not believe that they will be able to attack this suspect Tigers defense. LSU was a 42 point favorite against Arkansas last year and they still have talent and that will show up today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cole Faxon

Nov 21 '20, 12:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | Illinois vs Nebraska
Play on: OVER 59 -110

FREE PLAY on Illinois/Nebraska over 59 -110