Monday 11/23/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-23-2020, 06:58 AM

Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Early Pick 4 Analysis

November 23, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight, the feature at Woodbine Mohawk Park rolls in Race 9, a Preferred Handicap Trot with a $36,000 purse. The 0.20 Early Pick 4 starts in Race 4 and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 4

7-Charmbo Prince (4-1)-Three-year-old has not won a race since trying Lasix 8 starts ago. Missed a start but did come the back-half in 55.2 on 11/7. Saftic can put in play sooner and should be rolling down the lane.
8-Toccoa Falls (7/2)-Makes 3rd start for Team Hensley and did put forth a good effort in last try. Started from post 10 and did get into a live cover flow but couldn't catch the winner due to 30.1 third quarter after a 57.2 opening half. Should be a threat with a good steer.
9-The First Chapter (15-1)-Taking a swing for a price as this 5-year-old makes only his 10th start in 2020. Looking for an honest pace and with the right trip this guy could light up the board. Has 2 wins in 9 tries at Wbsb and the 2 picks above are a bit camera shy.

Race 5

4-Lone Wolf Terror (4-1)-The Wolf is an open book. Since the beginning of October every other start has been a win, and in the other he breaks. That sequence won't go on forever but can beat this group if he doesn't take steps.
6-Military Secret (3-1)-Drops in for a tag as some 4-year-olds do at this time of year before their 25% allowance goes away. Has only 1 win since the claim but has been cashing checks. Should like the company and best to respect chances for a picture.
9-Choreographer (7/2)-This is the probable winner if races back to last start when he cruised home in 152.4. Loses McClure who was out East this weekend, but Henry is more than capable. Five-year-old can leave as fast as the gate car.

Race 6

2-Im The Muscle (3-1)-Drops to the same level as last win on 10/26. Roy could blast out and should land on the point or no worse than in the 2-hole. This is a spot to wake-up and could be bet hard.
3-Only For Justice (7/2)-Here is the other dropper and this will be the 3rd start with hopples. Should be there at the wire if minds manners.
5-Superlative (4-1)-Bumps up after drawing off by 5 1/2 lengths and did cash checks versus better than this not long ago. Jamieson is back for his 2nd tour in the bike and best to not overlook this time, could get a close-up seat.

Race 7

2-Buzz (4-1)-Kadabra 8-year-old likes to race on the point or close to it. That can happen versus this crew without using a lot of gas. This looks like a good spot for a picture.
6-Hockey Hanover (3-1)-Hasn't taken a trip to the winner's circle since 7/7 and that was against better than this. Had an even effort when dropped to this level in last, but like #2 this could be a chance to snag an overdue win.
10-Wild And Crazy Guy (7/2)-There should be an honest pace, could get away okay and save ground. If JMac can work a trip and be in striking range down the lane this veteran could pounce late.

0.20 Early Pick 4

7,8,9/4,6,9/2,3,5/2,6,10
Total Bet=$16.20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-23-2020, 06:59 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Parx Racing - Race #1

#9 Frisky Feeling	Stretch runner got back to the dirt and flew home last time to just miss, gets a ton of pace to rally into, and won't be favored; finally gets there.
#3 Skylight	Stiff ML favorite was a good 2nd in an MSW at FL last time, so she'll be tough here, but the fact she's now in for a tag is a worry; backwheel time.
#6 Wanna Be Regal	Lifetime 0-for-25 maiden usually runs on late for a piece and was facing better at Mth, though she's still slow on figures; using underneath, as always.
Race Summary	You won't get rich on the 9 but she won't be favored either, and the 3 has some worries attached, so play the pick aggressively to win and place, while getting some added value by keying her to kick off the early Pk4, as she looks primed for a breakthrough.

Parx Racing - Race #3

#5 One Niner Tango	MSW dropper has been facing better and holding his own, still has upside after just four starts, and could offer a hint of value as well; look out.
#9 Scorpion Dynasty	ML favorite flew on the lead and was a good 2nd with a big figure here last time, though you wonder if regression is coming today; second-best.
#8 Magic Mule	Pace presser us another MSW dropper, though the no-show last time doesn't sit well after three strong starts to kick off her career; tread lightly.
Race Summary	That 5-1 ML on the pick seems like plenty of value, especially since he takes the biggest drop in racing, so play him in all the slots, and especially the early Pk4 as well, as he figures to lay down the best race of his career, ad a win would knock plenty of tickets out in what is a very deep race.

Parx Racing - Race #9

#3 Taxable Goods	Stalker catches a group with plenty of early speed, has plenty of strong dirt runs against better showing, and may be a square price as well; love his chances here.
#2 Baby Bull	Underlay added blinkers and didn't fire last time, though it was at one-turn, and the two-turn run two-back was solid, though 7-2 seems a bit low; could rebound.
#1 Ronin Warrior	The more fancied part of the entry aired against open last time and will be tough with a repeat, but it was a seismic win, and a bounce may be coming; not sold on.
Race Summary	The price will be right on the 3, who could get overlooked off the turf form even though he's got several dirt races showing that would win this, so play him aggressively in all the slots at 7-2 or better, though you can get some guaranteed value by keying him in the late Pk4, as he seems to have found a very good spot.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-23-2020, 07:00 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mountaineer - Race #8

#6 Johnny Action	Should be a decent price, and while he's no sure thing to repeat that kind of effort going longer tonight, but that was an improved effort for the new barn, and maybe he can grind this out from off the pace.
#4 Darren's Fortune	Rolled a group at this level in the mud last month by 23 lengths, and he should get another good trip near the top with these. Price won't be appealing.
#2 Double the Laugh	Brings really good form with him to this one as he tries the local footing for the first time, but there are a couple of questions to answer here at a short price.
Race Summary	Johnny Action is worth a small swing in a spot where Darren's Fortune and Double the Laugh are both likely to take plenty of action. He turned in an improved effort in his first try for this barn, and perhaps he can sustain a late run at this marathon trip.

Mountaineer - Race #6

#1 I'm Feeling Lucky	Will have to work out a forward trip from the rail, but she's as good as any in here as what should be the second choice on the board.
#5 Champagne Bliss	Proved an easy winner with the local competition a couple starts back, and she's the clear one to beat here at what might be an unappealing price.
#4 Kingston Time	Has at least some claim on the top spot with a couple of razor-sharp local efforts under her belt earlier this year, and those types of tries would keep her right in the mix with these.
Race Summary	I'm Feeling Lucky is interesting enough at something like the 5/2 ML price, as she is tactical enough to find a good spot from the fence, and her best stuff is competitive here.

Mountaineer - Race #7

#6 Latin Spice	Has been in with some better groups than this in recent tries, and many of these want to be right up on the early splits, giving this guy a chance to come rolling late.
#5 Ed	Nothing to really argue with from the debut run, and he was obviously well meant when 4/5 against nine others. Has a right to be tough with these.
#2 Renegade Bob	Should be able to find a really good spot from close range, and he showed enough of a pressing gear last out to suggest he can settle off the splits here and try to get first run.
Race Summary	Latin Spice should get a pretty fair race shape to work with in this one, and he's probably the best finisher in this bunch. He has faced some better groups than this and figures tough -- playable at the 3/1 ML.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-23-2020, 07:01 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Remington Park - Race #1

#1 Canada Candy	Has been a factor in all five of her races and should be able to dictate how this one goes as she stretches out to two turns.
#5 Moonshine Moxy	Moves over from the turf and has enough speed to be part of the conversation throughout this one; drops in class.
#2 Duchess Bubbles	Has finished with interest in her sprints and looks ready to try this longer distance.
Race Summary	Canada Candy will go for the lead from the rail and will have a good chance to take charge.

Remington Park - Race #2

#7 Touch 'Em Up	Was fifth at Hawthorne last time and chased front runners over a speed conducive track at Prairie Meadows; now runs over a more closer-friendly track and is the one to hold off late.
#2 Gospel Abe	Made a big run and held on to beat similar last time out; has won seven races over the strip and is usually a late threat.
#1 Smok'n Policy	Steady closer going two turns and will benefit if they go quickly on the front end.
Race Summary	Touch 'Em Up has a low win percentage over the past two years and is a closer that always makes up some degree of ground; should be moving well here.

Remington Park - Race #6

#6 Lovely Lolita	Faced maiden specials in her first two races and should be very tough on this drop to maiden claiming.
#1 Sweet Smokin Gal	Was third in her only start and can be in the mix from the start; can hang on for a major piece.
#4 D' cinnamon Girl	Was second at this level in her last two races and made a late move in her latest; capable of a big effort here.
Race Summary	Lovely Lolita should benefit from the drop out of tougher races and can be a big player from the outset.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-23-2020, 12:07 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mahoning Valley Race Course

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 9	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / 20 Cent High Five
Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 61 • Purse: $20,000 • Post: 4:30P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Stalker. SKY is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SKY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ITZAFRIENDSHIPSHOT: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. GRAY ROYALITY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surfa ce. TIZ THIRSTY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
4	SKY	10/1	6/1
6	ITZAFRIENDSHIPSHOT	8/5	6/1
7	GRAY ROYALITY	15/1	7/1
2	TIZ THIRSTY	5/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	ITZAFRIENDSHIPSHOT	6	8/5	Front-runner	47	40	58.6	48.5	44.5
2	TIZ THIRSTY	1	5/1	Alternator/Front-runner	62	36	56.3	34.4	25.9
4	SKY	4	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	68	61	48.0	27.4	18.4
10	CEVICHE	11	10/1	Alternator/Trailer	52	45	49.8	41.6	34.6
7	GRAY ROYALITY	8	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	46.5	45.5	40.0
3	BIG WIN	2	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	69.2	22.6	12.6
5	FABULOUS DREAMER	5	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	54.0	17.1	5.6

Unknown Running Style: SAINT PATSY (20/1) [Jockey: Hernandez Omar - Trainer: Faulkner Rodney C], REDNECKSAINT (20/1) [Jockey: Paucar Edgar - Trainer: Faulkner Rodney C], NIXER (9/2) [Jockey: Keiser Chelsey - Trainer: Wolochuk David], MY DAMS ATITUDE

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-23-2020, 01:21 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing

Parx Racing - Race 7	Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) / Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta 50 cent Pick 4 (Races 7-10) / 10 cent Superfecta
Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 59 • Purse: $40,000 • Post: 3:07P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 119 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * KIRTAN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. SPUN RUN: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. CHARGE T HROUGH: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. POMTINI: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibas e Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
7	KIRTAN	15/1	9/2
14	SPUN RUN	6/1	6/1
9	CHARGE THROUGH	7/2	6/1
13	POMTINI	8/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	MARIAH ALYVIA	8	20/1	Front-runner	0	0	62.0	27.9	18.9
7	KIRTAN	7	15/1	Front-runner	65	52	54.6	44.7	36.7
11	EASY ON THE SUGAR	11	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	51.2	23.7	12.7
1	B B'S ROCKET	1	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	48.3	31.3	19.3
13	POMTINI	13	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	34.1	47.4	40.4
14	SPUN RUN	14	6/1	Trailer	71	49	51.2	46.5	41.5
9	CHARGE THROUGH	9	7/2	Trailer	71	47	50.2	44.6	39.6
12	CREATIVE JOY	12	20/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: VINO Y QUESO (6/1) [Jockey: Sanchez Mychel J - Trainer: Preciado Guadalupe], JENNA'S LIL AGNES (10/1) [Jockey: Salgado Anthony - Trainer: Coletti Jr Edward J], SALT PLAGE (4/1) [Jockey: Castillo Angel - Trainer: Rice Linda], LI

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-23-2020, 01:22 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Parx Racing - Race #10 - Post: 4:28pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 68

Rating:

#11 VALERIE FIRST (ML=6/1)
#7 WHITNEY COVE (ML=5/1)

VALERIE FIRST - This filly's last speed figure is lofty enough to score here, I'll invest in her right back in today's event. WHITNEY COVE - After the event aboard this horse on Nov 11th, the rider is going to know the mare much better. This mare is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Taylor. Forgive the out of the money finish on the off track last out. On a fast track, has a good chance in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 CASEYOUDIDN'TKNOW (ML=5/2), #1 NANCY B (ML=3/1), #4 IWASBORNAWINNER (ML=7/2),

CASEYOUDIDN'TKNOW - Quite unimpressive speed figure last out at Parx Racing at 5 1/2 furlongs. Don't feel this horse will improve too much in today's race. NANCY B - Pedestrian speed rating last out at Parx Racing at 5 1/2 furlongs. Don't think this vulnerable equine will improve too much in today's event. Hard to bet this one from the one slot. Her history is telling you not to. IWASBORNAWINNER - If you keep playing these kind of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be frustrated regularly. Could be tough for this horse to beat this group off of that last rating. Unlikely to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's Equibase class figure, so put her on the likely underlays list.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #11 VALERIE FIRST on the win end if we get at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [7,11]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-23-2020, 01:22 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6900 Class Rating: 70

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 23, 2019. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 ESTRELA CADENTE 6/5
# 6 LADY KIM 5/1
# 8 SIERRITA 6/1

ESTRELA CADENTE figures to be the bet in here. Has to be given a shot against this group displaying decent figures lately and an average Equibase Speed Figure of 68 under similar conditions. With one of the best riders in terms of gains at the window, don't count this mare out. Ran a sharp last race. LADY KIM - Could best this field based on the speed figure - 63 - of her last affair. Ought to be given consideration here on the basis of the numbers in the speed realm alone. SIERRITA - She has been running admirably recently while recording sharp Equibase Speed Figures. Have to look at solely on class, with some of the top class figs of this field.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-23-2020, 01:23 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Remington Park - Race #5 - Post: 1:52pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $29,000 Class Rating: 71

Rating:

#5 I LIVED IT (ML=4/1)

I LIVED IT - 48-54-63 are last three speed figs. Improving each time out is something he should do again today. This thoroughbred could be tough in today's race, especially since Tohill rode in the last race and now should be better acquainted with this one. Has a good chance to break maiden changing over to the dirt in today's race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 MY GOLDEN M (ML=5/2), #6 FIXATION (ML=7/2), #2 TRULY DANZIG (ML=5/1),

MY GOLDEN M - I predict bad luck for this horse in this race. FIXATION - This vulnerable equine hasn't been near the winner at the wire recently. Tough to invest in any horse in a sprint race at 7/2 when he hasn't shown any successful endeavors in sprints in the last two months. TRULY DANZIG - In any event of 5 1/2 furlongs, I like to support a contender that has been on the board in sprint races recently.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#5 I LIVED IT to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-23-2020, 01:25 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $11800 Class Rating: 74

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 23 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1A SOUTH BEACH GIRL 8/5
# 1 COSI MOMOSI 8/5
# 3 PASSALLTHECANDY 4/1

I think SOUTH BEACH GIRL is a solid choice. Dacosta has her trained well to break sharply out of the gate. With a respectable 84 speed rating last time out, will clearly be a factor in this race. Has been close up at the wire most every time lately. COSI MOMOSI - Tough to pass on this filly with Correa in the saddle. She looks solid in this spot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the halfway point. PASSALLTHECANDY - Reed has a sound 18 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. Recently Leon has been hot which may give the edge to this filly.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-23-2020, 01:26 PM

Cappers Access

(Mon) NFL Buccaneers -4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-23-2020, 05:42 PM

Tys Terrific Tips

NFL TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS ‑4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-23-2020, 06:06 PM

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Rams make the cross-country trek to Central Florida looking to win consecutive games for the first time since Oct. 4-11, but that was against the Giants and Football Team, not terribly impressive. L.A. is coming off a 23-16 win over the Seahawks, cashing on a three-point number while the 'under' (55) easily connected. The 'under' has hit in six straight games for the Rams. L.A. hasn't covered in back-to-back games since Week 1-2. For the Bucs, they bounced back with a 46-23 stomping of the Panthers on Sunday. After tossing up a season-low three points in Week 9 against the Saints, they scored a season-high 46. That's quite the rebound.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-23-2020, 06:06 PM

Rams at Buccaneers Odds
Opening line
Buccaneers -4, Over/Under 49

Why the line moved
The Week 11 Monday nighter is a key NFC clash, and both teams are coming off wins: Los Angeles stymied Seattle 23-16, and Tampa Bay drubbed Carolina 46-23.

"We opened Bucs -4 and moved quickly to Bucs -3.5," Murray said. "We will need the Rams in this game, but how big remains to be seen. People may hesitate to bet the Bucs with both hands after their performance on Monday Night Football vs. the Giants and that Sunday Night Football disaster a week ago (against the Saints). There will be support for the Rams, too."