Thursday 11/26/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-26-2020, 07:34 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #2

#5 Backwoods Boogie	Should be able to get a perfect kind of trip pressing the guy to his inside, and he may benefit from the cutback while dropping in class for this one.
#1 Holy Saint	Takes the next logical step up after an easy win last time out, and he'll now go off the claim for a team that has been having a good run of things this year. Look for him to settle inside and finish.
#6 Goodluckchuck	He was a good fit for this price earlier this year, and those last two races were just a bit on the ambitious side. The drop gives him a real chance to wake up and track the splits from the wide draw.
Race Summary	Backwoods Boogie needs to bounce back, but he's getting into an easier spot and may be able to get the right kind of trip. Dirt form is a question still, so demand a fair price.

Laurel Park - Race #5

#3 Silver Sun	Steps up to face winners off the claim, but he has been heading in the right direction through recent starts, and another good, forward trip should be waiting for him here.
#7 Natty Beau	Put things together in a nice way last out with that easy graduation run, and he seems to be a better horse now since adding blinkers. The one to beat, but he may be sitting on a step back?
#2 Kentucky Cool	Big step forward after showing nothing in the debut, but I wouldn't be too interested in this one at something like the 5/2 ML price.
Race Summary	Silver Sun is worth a look a something like the 3/1 ML price, as he'll step up to face winners off a sharp win against cheaper last time out.

Laurel Park - Race #7

#2 Maybe Someday	His only two-turn try produced the romping maiden win, and he should be able to find a good spot right up near the top with these.
#3 Benandjoe	Another with some pace to get involved in the early stages, but he feels perhaps a little light on class given the expected price at post time.
#5 Closer Look	Tends to show up every time, and he has some versatility to him as far as running style goes. Guessing he'll relax off the splits and watch this unfold.
Race Summary	Maybe Someday showed little when facing winners for the first time, but he'll be in line for a good run today and can bounce back at what should be a better price than he offered last time out.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-26-2020, 07:35 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #5

#5 EMPTYTHETILL	Forced to move early, led until late, can make amends.
#8 P L IDAHO	Overcame posts 8 and 9 to win in prior two starts at this level.
#4 A BOY NAMED SUUZZ	Three deep in outer flow, closed with mid-track rush for third win in row.
Race Summary	Emptythetill rushed to the lead in the second quarter after he couldn’t find a seat early. He was in control until mid-stretch but came up short at the same level. Play 5-4 and 5-8 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #8

#8 SUNSHINES FINEST	In good form, takes magnified drop in second start for Moreau.
#2 SPEED TO MARKET	Fired blank without Lasix, ran well in prior pair at Rideau.
#9 MOHEGAN BLUE CHIP	Ranged up on 3-to-5 winner but couldn’t stay with him in stretch.
Race Summary	Sunshines Finest rallied behind three-peating, class riser A Boy Named Suuzz (see tonight’s 5th race). He has a class edge and most of his rivals last raced at shorter ovals. Play 8-2 and 8-9 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #10

#1 MACH DIESEL	Wilted late in repeat bid, can control throughout for new connections.
#9 JUSTA BANDIT	Rallied for pair of seconds, then changed tactics and controlled pace for win.
#7 LIVIN LARGE	Good first impression locally, finishing fourth from second-tier starting spot.
Race Summary	Mach Diesel brushed from third to the backstretch lead, shrugged off a strong challenge on the final turn but couldn’t last in his bid to repeat. He can maximize his speed from the rail and return a quick claim dividend.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-26-2020, 07:36 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #4

#4 Applecross	Finished mid-pack in graded turf starts in her last two and should enjoy the drop in class; Rosario will have her rolling late in the game.
#7 Over Attracted	Came on well in her last two, losing by a length or less in each; stretches out and can run into the mix late.
#2 Resarcio	Has a decent spot and in a race that doesn't feature a lot of speed and can get into a good forward position early; can fight it out for a slice of this.
Race Summary	Applecross has faced tougher fillies than these and will be able to commence her rally earlier; one to hold off.

Del Mar - Race #6

#1 California Kook	Has been a steady closer, finished second in the G1 Del Mar Oaks in August and then two weeks later was a closing fourth against males in the G2 Del Mar Derby. She lacked a big kick in the G1 QEII Cup but has the class to prevail in her return to her native state.
#4 Orglandes	Moves into stakes company after an optional claiming win at Belmont last time out; Brown took over training the French filly and she'll likely do nothing but improve. In a tough spot today but she should enjoy the distance.
#2 Never Be Enough	Has won four of six in the U.S. after running well in Great Britain; won a restricted stakes race over this course last time and has the speed to be a big player from the beginning.
Race Summary	California Kook has performed well over this turf course and should appreciate the 1 3-8 miles of this one.

Del Mar - Race #8

#12 Antithetical	Failed to keep up in a sprint last time and is back to a much more favorable distance; can have a more relaxed trip and Baze will have him moving well late.
#11 Bud Knight	Held on for second going 1 1-4 miles last time and can be tough on the turnback in distance; close throughout.
#2 Bench Judge	Set the pace and just missed last time and was claimed by Miller; big front-end factor today.
Race Summary	Antithetical prefers to be off the pace, will be in that situation pace and will follow a good clip. Can get back to good form with this added distance.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-26-2020, 07:36 AM

Jeff Siegel's National Best Plays - 11/26/20

November 26, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Best Plays for Thursday, November 26, 2020

Fair Grounds Fourth Race – Post Time: 1:31 CT
6 – Ours Forever (6-1)

Short on pedigree but was visually quite impressive breezing a quarter mile in a blistering 21 2/5 seconds over the Timonium bull ring in the preview session of the Fasig-Tipton spring sale and then brought $90,000 through the ring, a rather impressive figure for a Louisiana-bred daughter of Half Ours. The recent local tab hardly jumps off the page but we suspect that this juvenile filly from a highly-capable outfit that boasts strong stats with first-timers is extremely live and well-meant. At 6-1 on the morning line she’s a win play but might actually offer better value in the rolling exotics.

*

Del Mar Fourth Race – Post Time: 12:30 PT
4 – Applecross (Ire) (7/2)

After breaking her maiden at first asking early in her 2-year-old campaign, this Irish-bred filly has faced nothing but tough and contentious stakes competition while acquitting herself reasonably well, and today she receives much welcomed class relief while dropping into a first-level allowance event. The R. Baltas-trained import makes a pivotal jockey switch to J. Rosario, gets an extra half-furlong to work with, and looks capable of producing the last run with good racing luck and decent early fractions to complement her late kick. At 7/2 on the morning line she’s a win play and strong key in rolling exotic play.

*

Fair Grounds Sixth Race – Post Time: 2:33 CT
2 – Proxy (4-1)

Was best when beaten when a troubled runner-up (beaten a neck while more than four clear of the rest) in a very promising debut race over a mile in an off-the-turf affair at Monmouth Park last month and seems sure to improve for a barn that hits at a strong 21% with second-time starters. The son of Tapit from the top race mare Panty Raid broke slowly, raced in heavy traffic most of the way, then got clear and closed resolutely but ran out of room in a race that earned a good speed figure. He’s assured a ground-saving trip from the rail, so at 4-1 on the morning line the M. Stidham-trained colt should offer plenty of wagering value.

*

Churchill Downs 11th race – Post Time: 4:22 ET
6 – Pirate Rick (8-1)

This lightly-raced colt is moving up from a maiden $50,000 sprint to this much tougher first-level allowance affair and must negotiate an extra half-furlong so the task won’t be easy, but we’ll give him a legitimate chance to wire the field and spring an upset. After shipping in from Prairie Meadows the son of Liam’s Map left his previous form far behind with a dominating gate-to-wire score while earning a speed figure that makes him dangerous despite the class hike, and as the projected controlling speed once again the D. Von Hemel-trained sophomore is worth a play at 8-1 on the morning line.

*

Del Mar Sixth Race – Post Time: 1:30 PT
2 – Never Be Enough (GB)

Returns to a mini-marathon trip after an impressive score in the Kathryn Crosby S. over at a mile over the local lawn last month and because she was a stayer (and hurdler) overseas we suspect the longer distance won’t be an issue if she receives her preferred patient ride. The Northern California-based mare has worked extremely well in the interim to remain right on edge and can score right back in this year’s edition of the Red Carpet H.-G3 if she switches off early and finds cover. She’s a gamble at or near her morning line of 4-1.

*

Del Mar Seventh Race – Post Time: 2:00 PT
10 – Octopus (3-1)

Has much in his favor in this restricted (nw-3) $20,000 claiming seller for older horses and should have every chance to regain his winning form over a main track that has produced both of his career victories. Back at his claim level with a cozy outside draw and a recent bullet workout at Del Mar two weeks ago, the son of Shackleford retains A. Cedillo, who has the option of popping and going or stalking and pouncing. Additionally, the sophomore sprinter has a clear edge in the speed figure department so there’s value at his morning line of 5/2 if you can get it.

*

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-26-2020, 08:05 AM

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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-26-2020, 08:06 AM

Betting Recap - Week 11
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Cowboys (+7, ML +260) at Vikings, 31-28
Titans (+6, ML +220) at Ravens, 30-24 (OT)
Broncos (+4, ML +180) at Broncos, 20-13
Panthers (+3, ML +144) vs. Lions, 20-0
Texans (+2.5, ML +122) vs. Patriots, 27-20

The largest favorites to cover

Steelers (-10.5) at Jaguars, 27-3
Saints (-3.5) vs. Falcons, 24-9
Browns (-2.5) vs. Eagles, 22-17
Colts (-1.5) vs. Packers, 34-31 (OT)
Washington (-1.5) vs. Bengals, 20-9

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Kansas City Chiefs-Las Vegas Raiders matchup was a little disappointing if you were holding a Raiders money line (+290) ticket.

The Raiders hit the winner in Week 5 as 10.5-point underdogs at Arrowhead Stadium, winning 40-32, and they felt it was worthy of a victory lap after the big win over their rivals. The Chiefs remembered, and didn't want to see it happen again on Sunday Night Football at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

It was a seesaw affair at the 'Big Al', as the teams exchanged haymakers in the first quarter with a 2-yard touchdown run by RB Josh Jacobs, before a 3-yard touchdown from Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes to WR Tyreek Hill. On the final play of the first, QB Derek Carr hit WR Nelson Agholor on a highlight reel 17-yard touchdown to make it 14-7.

Early in the second, Chiefs rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire punched one in from three yards out, and PK Daniel Carlson ended the first-half scoring, much to the delight of Raiders first-half backers (+4) and first-half money line bettors (+150), with Vegas up 17-14.

The third quarter saw just Edwards-Helaire with a 14-yard touchdown, his second scoring run of the evening, and the Chiefs were back up 21-17. 'Under' (56.5) bettors were a little nervous, needing 19 points in the final 15 minutes. That nervousness was not necessary.

Raiders TE Darren Waller opened the scoring with a 3-yard TD snare from Carr, making it 24-21 in favor of the home side. With just 5:54 to go, RB Le'Veon Bell cracked off a 6-yard touchdown to make it 28-24. TE Jason Witten put the Raiders back on top with 1:43 to go, as the Raiders officially clinched the game cover (+7.5), as well as giving 'over' bettors a winning ticket, up 31-28.

But the final score came with 1:43 to go. That's 103 seconds for the defending Super Bowl MVP. It was 28 seconds too many. Mahomes tricked a member of the secondary who bit on the quarterback scramble, and Mahomes threw a 22-yard dart to TE Travis Kelce, who was wide open in the end zone. Game. Set. Match. No money line winner for the Silver and Black.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The New England Patriots-Houston Texans (49.5) wasn't really a bad beat, but it was a disappointment if you were an 'over' bettor. If you were an 'under' bettor, you were not crying.

The teams combined for 31 points by halftime, with Houston up 21-10 at the break. After 10 points in the third quarter, over bettors were feeling pretty good heading into the final 15, with 41 points on the board. However, the teams exchanged only field goals in the fourth, and Houston held out for the 27-20.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part III

Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow going down early in the third quarter with a season-ending injury in their 20-9 setback on the road against the Washington Football Team is disappointing. The Bengals were winning 9-7 at the time, winning outright as 1.5-point 'dogs.

Washington marched straight down the field on the ensuing drive and took a 14-9 lead, and it's a lead they wouldn't relinquish. In fact, the Bengals wouldn't score again as they slipped to 2-7-1 with six to go.

In addition, if you are holding an 'over' five wins ticket for the season for Cincinnati, you might as well shred that one now. QB Ryan Finley was horrible in Burrow's stead, and the Bengals are back to being the Bungles.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board for the Sunday slate was the Philadelphia Eagles-Cleveland Browns (45.5) tilt at FirstEnergy Stadium. While we didn't see the frozen precipitation or bone-chilling temperatures like we did the last two games in Cleveland, a 16-6 loss to the Raiders, and a 10-7 win over the Houston Texans, there was a 90 percent chance of rain for Sunday's game, and Mother Nature didn't disappoint.

It was a soggy, ugly, rainy game, and under bettors were treated to double aughts in the first quarter. A defensive touchdown on a pick-six by Sione Takitaki was the only score. At halftime, the Browns carried a 7-0 lead into the room to dry out and warm up. Defense reigned supreme in the third quarter, too, as we had a safety.

There were some uncomfortable moments for under bettors in the fourth, as the teams exchanged 10s to get the total to 39. But thankfully we had a QB Carson Wentz red-zone pick, and the Eagles weren't able to grab the onside kick after TE Dallas Goedert scored with 30 seconds left.

The highest total on the board Sunday was the SNF game between the Chiefs and Raiders, and we broke that down above. After Thursday's primetime game between the Arizona Cardinals-Seattle Seahawks (57) hit the 'under' at 28-21, the over/under is 1-1 with the Los Angeles Rams-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (48) Monday night battle pending.

So far this season the under is 22-12 (64.7%) across 34 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 12

Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys (Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET)

The bad news. On Thanksgiving, we get two 3-7 battling for a win in the middle game. The good news is that it should be an even game with plenty of storylines. And, believe it or not, these two teams are each just a half-game out of first place when normally your season would essentially be over four games under .500 after 10 games.

We also get the QB Andy Dalton revenge game. Dalton was knocked out of the first meeting in Week 7 by a cheap shot, sending him into the concussion protocol. Enter QB Ben DiNucci, and he didn't have it, as the Football Team won 25-3 in that late October battle in D.C. DiNucci started one game, then QB Garrett Gilbert started another, but the Cowboys were winless in the two games without Dalton. He returned and led the Cowboys to an upset win at Minnesota to make a big difference.

Dallas has won each of the past four home games against Washington, scoring 31 or more points in each of those games. But, of course, that was with QB Dak Prescott at the helm, too.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Ravens head to the Steel City on Turkey Day (well, night), looking to avenge a 28-24 loss at M&T Bank Stadium in Week 8. It was Pittsburgh's seventh win of the season against no losses, and After their 27-3 win at Jacksonville in Week 11, they're still filing a goose egg in the loss column. That's 10 up and 10 down for the Steelers, and they have covered eight times in those 10 games, including 7-1 ATS across the past eight.

The Ravens have won the past two trips to Heinz Field, including a thrilling 26-23 overtime win last season, and a 26-14 win in 2018. Baltimore has won four of the past six in Pittsburgh straight-up, and six of the past 10 outright at the confluence.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Dolphins are coming off a 20-13 loss at Denver, snapping a five-game winning streak, and it's a game which saw rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa benched for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, as head coach Brian Flores looked for a spark. It didn't happen, as the Broncos won as four-point 'dogs. The Jets put up a pretty impressive effort in L.A., covering a 9.5-point number against the Chargers, but they remain winless at 0-10. It was their third cover of the season, however, and the 'over' result was their fifth in 10 outings. Flores did promise Tua will be back as starter in Week 12.

These teams met in Miami back in Week 6, and the Jets scored as many points as you and I, losing 24-0 as 10-point 'dogs as the 'under' (46) connected. Miami has won five of their past eight trips to New Jersey outright, and they have won seven of the previous nine overall in this series.

The Dolphins opened as touchdown favorites on the road against Gang Green.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Bears are coming off a bye. The Packers are coming off a disappointing 34-31 overtime loss on the road against the Indianapolis Colts. Both teams are going to be ornery.

This is the first of two meetings in the final six games for these rivals, with the Packers up two games over the Bears in the NFC North Division at 7-3 (vs. 5-5). The Packers have dominated this series in the regular season and postseason, winning 16 of the past 19 meetings in this series overall, including nine of the past 10 trips to Chitown, including that NFC Championship Game win in the 2010 playoffs. Last season's win in Chicago was just 10-3 for Green Bay, and the Bears clinched the NFC North in the 2018 meeting at Soldier Field while eliminating the Packers from the playoffs, so even if the teams appear to be on different planes, expect a rough and tumble affair that will be close.

The biggest question is the health of QB Nick Foles, who was knocked out in the final minute of last Monday's game against Minnesota. The good news is that he didn't sustain a fractured hip, but it's uncertain if he'll be ready, if QB Mitchell Trubisky (shoulder) will be ready, or if we might see QB Tyler Bray. The quarterback situation obviously will make a huge difference on who to back, and what to play on the total. Stay tuned.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-26-2020, 08:06 AM

NFL betting tips for Week 12: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

The Dallas Cowboys offense showed signs of life in Week 11, and just might be starting to get a rhythm again heading into a Thanksgiving clash with Washington.

Anyone who comes from a big family knows timing is everything when enjoying your Thanksgiving.

Want hot mashed potatoes and gravy? You’d better act quick and beat the rush.

Eyeing that comfy armchair next to the fire? Get Uncle Leo another beer and wait it out until he has to go pee, then swoop in and usurp the throne.

Such skill and strategy are also needed to get the best of the NFL betting odds in Week 12. Here are our top NFL betting tips for the spreads and totals to bet now, and which ones you should bet later.

Houston Texans (-2.5) at Detroit Lions: Bet Now

The Lions playing on Thanksgiving Day is an NFL tradition, much like betting against Detroit is becoming a weekly tradition for football bettors. The Lions limp into the holiday off a 20-0 shutout loss to Carolina and a former XFL castoff second-string QB. They've failed to cover in three of their past four games, with the lone ATS win coming by a half a point versus Washington.

Houston, on the other hand, looked pretty good against the Patriots. We all knew QB Deshaun Watson could play, but the Texans defense made the big difference in Week 11 as well—something we haven’t seen much of this season.

Houston also covered the spread for the second straight week and if you’re buying a ticket on the Texans train this Thanksgiving, get it now because the price is going up. Houston is just under a field goal fave on the road in Detroit as of Sunday night and this line will likely swing to -3 by mid-Monday...if not sooner.

Baltimore Ravens (+3) at Pittsburgh Steelers: Bet Later

This AFC North rivalry has more drama than the debate over macaroni and cheese being a Thanksgiving dish (it is BTW, 100 percent). The Ravens have dropped two straight games and three of their last four, posting a 1-3 ATS mark in that span. In fact, Baltimore has only covered the spread once in its last five outings.

Pittsburgh was responsible for one of those losses, knocking off the Ravens 28-24 as a 4-point road underdog on November 1. The Steelers have still not tasted defeat this season, bringing a perfect 10-0 SU record and an 8-2 ATS count back to Heinz Field, where they have played just one time since October 25.

This spread opened Pittsburgh -2.5 Sunday night and quickly jumped to -3 with the field goal spread heavily juiced (there are some -3.5 popping up out there). If you’re siding with Baltimore to bounce back in this divisional dance, wait it out and see if that extra vig becomes an extra half-point or more.

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills (Over 52.5): Bet Now

Two of the NFL’s strongest arms square off in this Week 12 shootout at Orchard Park. This total opened at 51.5 and has quickly jumped to 52.5 with one-sided play on the Over. And with the way these teams can sling it: why not?

Justin Herbert passed for 366 yards and three touchdowns in a win over the New York Jets (OK, not that impressive) and outside of a bad day versus Miami in Week 10, has posted big-time numbers for a rookie passer. He’s pushed L.A. to 30 or more points in six of his last seven starts (the other game had 29 points) and the Chargers have gone Over the total in each of those seven outings.

Josh Allen and the Bills enjoyed a bye in Week 11. Buffalo hit a bit of an offensive skid between Weeks 5 and 8 but got its groove back with 30 and 44-point efforts in its last two outings. Granted, the Bills defense hasn’t pushed back much, allowing 30-plus in those last two games (both went Over), but neither has the Bolts’ stop unit—the Chargers just gave up 28 points to New York.

The extended forecast for Buffalo is calling for cold and rain on Sunday, so keep an eye on how that changes throughout the week. But if you’re calling for these sides to sizzle the scoreboard Sunday, take the Over now because it’s likely going to keep on climbing.

Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys (Over 48): Bet Later

America’s Team on America’s holiday is like ice cream on hot apple pie. Except this year, someone put raisins in the apple pie and that ice cream is soy-based. Yuck. That’s how most people view the Dallas Cowboys right about now, despite their upset win over Minnesota in Week 11.

The short week allows the Cowboys to hold that momentum, especially on offense where they showed flashes of brilliance and some bubbling chemistry with QB Andy Dalton under center this past Sunday. Dallas scored more than 20 points for the first time since Dak Prescott went down – a good sign for Over backers – and you know this defense is going to surrender points, no matter who they’re facing.

Washington is coming off a 20-9 win over Cincinnati, marred in part by the injury to Joe Burrow. However, the Football Team has put up respectable numbers on offense in the past four weeks, averaging 23 points per game, including a 25-3 victory over Dallas at home.

This Over/Under hit the board at 48 and we’re starting to see money on the Under shift the juice toward a dip in the total. If you like what you saw from the Red Rocket and the Cowboys weapons, put a pin in that Over bet and see how low this number goes before Turkey Day.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-26-2020, 08:07 AM

Hot & Not Report - Week 12
Matt Blunt

NFL Week 12 Betting Angles

Another week in the books and it was another one that held true to form with last week's angle on the best/worst points per game in the NFL.

Dallas (and the N.Y. Jets) cashed ATS ticket(s) as the team on the low end of the spectrum for points per game over their past three games, while fading the top team – Kansas City – in points per game over their last three cashed an ATS ticket as well.

That made it a perfect 5-0 ATS backing the lowest team and 5-0 ATS fading the worst team the past five weeks, and for those that want to continue aboard that train, Week 12 plays in that tracking would suggest to fade the Kansas City Chiefs again (34.3 points/game over last three) and playing on the Cleveland Browns (12.7 points/game over last three).

It's Thanksgiving week though, and among the festivities that a full weekend of wall-to-wall football action I would like to wish everyone a safe and happy holiday no matter how you choose to spend it.

It might not be a traditional Thanksgiving in the truest sense of the word, but we still have football cards to break down and that's a good thing.

So let's take a look at a couple of Turkey Day historical results that I know will have Pittsburgh Steelers fans interested.

But in true 2020 fashion, there is always bad news with the good, and sorry Steelers fans, the schedule makers may have got you for any February celebrations.

Who's Hot

Since the start of the 2006, NFL teams that went into their Thanksgiving Day games with a better W/L record than their opponent are 28-8 SU on Thanksgiving.

Found this historical angle to be rather relevant this week with all three games currently lined at about a FG or less for the favorites, with Houston, Dallas, and Pittsburgh all laying chalk against their respective opponents.

At 3-7 SU for Washington and Dallas, that game doesn't fit here, so more angles you'll want to find on that likely disaster of a game will have to be dug up elsewhere.

The things for that game I can leave you with is that when both sides came into a Thanksgiving Day game with sub-.500 records in that span, the home team has gone 3-2 SU, but did lose the last occurrence last season when the 5-6 Chicago Bears beat the 3-7-1 Detroit Lions in the first contest of the day.

The other thing to note for that Dallas game is the fact that in the six previous games that had both teams come in with identical records in the W/L column, the home team went 4-2 SU, but more importantly there were plenty of low-scoring results.

The highest combined point effort by any of those six contests was a 43-point total in Phildelphia's 33-10 win over Dallas in 2014 when both went inot the game with 8-3 SU records.

Baltimore's 22-20 win over the Steelers in 2013 being the only other game that surpassed 40 points, whereas the other four games finished with 29 points (Minnesota/Detroit in 2016), 35 points (Pittsburgh/Indy in 2016), 22 points (Seattle/SF in 2014), and 32 points (NYJ/Denver in 2009).

The Jets, Colts, and 49ers were all held to seven points or less in those games too.

The other two games this week is where this angle does apply though, as we all know it's the Steelers (good news time for Pittsburgh fans) who come in with a better record than the Ravens, but at 4-6, it's actually the Lions who have that distinction over the 3-7 Houston Texans.

Detroit has lost on Thanksgiving for three straight seasons, but all of those came against division foes. The last time Detroit went out of the division on Thanksgiving was back in 2015 when they routed the Eagles 45-14.

But coincidentally enough, the time before that saw Detroit host this same Houston Texans organization back in 2012 and they fell 34-31 in OT.

Given the ugly play we saw from Detroit on Sunday in their shutout loss to Carolina, pulling the trigger on the Lions this week has to come with some reservation.

However, the only other team to lose by shutout this year was the New York Jets back in Week 6 (24-0 vs Miami) and they obviously didn't win outright the next week, but New York did get the ATS cash in an 18-10 defeat to Buffalo the following week.

All of that makes the Lions a highly intriguing betting option this week, especially if that line creeps higher and you can get +3 with them.

Who could you follow in Week 12?

Detroit
Pittsburgh

Who's Not

Since the start of the 2006, NFL teams that have PLAYED on Thanksgiving Day have not won a Super Bowl and only three of them have even made the Super Bowl (Arizona in 2008, Seattle in 2014, Carolina in 2015).

It's not hard to poke a few holes in this history given that two of the six teams involved in Thanksgiving Day games are Dallas and Detroit and they haven't won anything in decades, but you'd have to go all the way back to the Cowboys last Super Bowl win in the mid-1990's to find a team that played on Thanksgiving and went on to win the Super Bowl.

Even during the first segment of the Patriots dynasty at the turn of the century, New England found their way to playing the Lions on Thanksgiving in 2000 and 2002, all around their Super Bowl wins during that time.

Heck even in 2017, the entire NFC East except for Philadelphia played on Thanksgiving and wouldn't you know it, the Eagles went on to win the Super Bowl that year.

Of the three teams to make it to the Super Bowl, you could argue that Arizona and Seattle should have won titles in those years had things gone their way in the final minute of those Super Bowls, but they didn't in the end, and who know's maybe it's some kind of “Thanksgiving Curse” or something this league has.

This is the bad news part for Steelers fans, as Pittsburgh is the only unbeaten left, and the first to come into a Thanksgiving Day game unbeaten since Carolina did it back in 2015.

The Panthers rolled Dallas that day (33-14) – good news for Pittsburgh this week – but any thoughts of adding Steelers futures to your portfolio right now may be left in the simmering pot for now.

This is obviously bad news for any Baltimore futures as well (myself included) if the Ravens find a way to right the ship here and find a way into the postseason.

And we can't forget about Washington or Dallas either if one of those two organizations ends up with the NFC East crown, although I'm not sure any Super Bowl futures on either of those teams are seriously being considered right now.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-26-2020, 08:07 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 12

Thursday, November 26

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HOUSTON (3 - 7) at DETROIT (4 - 6) - 11/26/2020, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 151-191 ATS (-59.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 47-70 ATS (-30.0 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (3 - 7) at DALLAS (3 - 7) - 11/26/2020, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 70-102 ATS (-42.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
DALLAS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
DALLAS is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (6 - 4) at PITTSBURGH (10 - 0) - 11/26/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 100-72 ATS (+20.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
PITTSBURGH is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
PITTSBURGH is 108-80 ATS (+20.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) as a road underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-2 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-26-2020, 08:08 AM

NFL

Week 12

Trend Report

Thursday, November 26

Houston @ Detroit
Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Detroit's last 11 games at home
Detroit is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home

Washington @ Dallas
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Washington's last 10 games when playing Dallas
Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Dallas's last 10 games when playing Washington

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
Baltimore
Baltimore is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Baltimore is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-26-2020, 08:08 AM

121HOUSTON -122 DETROIT
HOUSTON is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in road games after an upset win since 1992.

123WASHINGTON -124 DALLAS
WASHINGTON is 20-5 ATS (14.5 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=6 yards/play in the second half of the season since 1992.

125BALTIMORE -126 PITTSBURGH
BALTIMORE is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. in the last 3 seasons.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-26-2020, 08:09 AM

NFL

Week 12

Texans (3-7) @ Detroit (4-6)
— Texans won two of their last three games, after a 1-6 start.
— Texans lost four of five road games SU, with win at Jacksonville.
— Houston are 0-6 this year when they score fewer than 27 points.
— Texans have only one takeaway in their last four games (-1).
— Under is 5-2 in Houston’s last seven games.
— Texans are 1-3-2 ATS in last six games as a road favorite.

— Detroit lost three of last four games, giving up 30.5 ppg.
— Lions allowed 441.2 ypg in their last three games.
— Detroit was outgained 374-185 in its 20-0 loss at Carolina LW.
— Lions are 6-11 ATS in last 17 games as a home underdog, 0-2 TY.
— Detroit was outrushed 601-303 in its last four games.
— Three of last four Lion games went over the total.

— Lions lost last three Thanksgiving games, by 7-7-4 points.
— Houston won three of four series games, with lone loss in 2004.
— Texans split two visits to the Motor City; last one was in 2012.

Washington (3-7) @ Dallas (3-7)
— Washington split its last four games, after a 1-5 start.
— Smith threw for 879 yards the last three weeks; he started last two games, his first starts since he shattered his leg in 2018.
— Washington is 2-2 inside the division, with losses by 1-3 points.
— Washington is 0-4 SU on road, losing by 15-14-1-3 points.
— Washington is 16-12-1 ATS in last 29 games as a road underdog.
— Under is 4-1-1 in last six Washington games.

— Cowboys lost four of its last five games, but upset the Vikings in Minnesota Sunday.
— Last nine games, Dallas is minus-13 in turnovers.
— Cowboys are 2-8 ATS this year; their three wins by total of 7 points.
— Four of last five Dallas games stayed under the total.
— Cowboys split their four home games, beating Falcons/Giants.
— Dallas is 10-12-1 ATS in last 23 games as a home favorite, 0-3 TY.

— Cowboys (+1) lost 25-3 in Washington five weeks ago; Redskins outrushed them 208-83, outgained them for whole game, 397-142.
— Dallas won 11 of last 15 series games.
— Washington lost its last four visits here, by 5-24-8-31 points.
— Dallas lost four of its last six Thanksgiving games.

Ravens (6-4) @ Pittsburgh (10-0)
— Baltimore lost three of last four games, after a 5-1 start.
— Ravens allowed 17 or fewer points in five of six wins, 34-28-23-30 in losses.
— Baltimore won four of five road games SU this year- the loss was 23-17 in Foxboro.
— Under is 3-2 in Baltimore road games this season.
— Ravens are thin at RB, with couple of guys having COVID issues.
— Ravens are 8-3-1 ATS in last dozen games as a road underdog; this is first time they’re an underdog this season.

— Steelers won first ten games (8-2 ATS), scoring 29.8 ppg.
— Pittsburgh’s home wins this year are by 5-7-9-31-26 points
— Under is 3-1-1 in their last five games.
— Steelers are +12 in turnovers this season, +7 in last three games.
— Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS as a home favorite this season.
— In their last six games, Steelers won field position by 9+ yards five times.

— Steelers (+4) won 28-24 in Baltimore four weeks ago.
— Ravens ran ball for 265 yards in that game, but were -3 in turnovers.
— Pittsburgh has swept Ravens once in the last 11 years.
— Baltimore won 26-14/26-23OT in last two visits to Steel City.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-26-2020, 08:09 AM

NFL Week 12 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow suffered a torn left ACL and MCL in Sunday's loss at Washington and is done for the season. Cincinnati opened +4.5 and moved to +5.5 against the visiting Giants in Week 12.

NFL Week 11 is in the rearview mirror, NFL Week 12 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes the typical injury information, most notably the devastating injury to Cincinnati Bengals rookie quarterback Joe Burrow.

Week 12 Injuries

Cincinnati Bengals: It's even worse than anticipated for Burrow, who not only tore his left ACL, but also his MCL and had other knee damage, as well, from a hit in Sunday's 20-9 loss at Washington. Obviously, his rookie campaign is done, and he could well miss next season, too. John Murray, executive director of The SuperBook at Westgate, said it's a touchdown drop-off to second-year backup Ryan Finley. "Yep, I'd say thats about right, 6.5 to 7 points, because the backup is so bad. Finley isn’t an NFL QB, and the Bengals' offensive line is terrible."

As such, the Bengals opened +4.5 against the visiting Giants and reached +5.5 Monday morning. The total opened at 43 and dipped to 41.5 Monday morning, then rebounded to 42.5.

Cleveland Browns: Standout defensive end Myles Garrett sat out Week 11 against Philadelphia following a positive COVID test, and Garrett will not play this week at Jacksonville, either. The Browns opened -7 at The SuperBook and dipped to -6.5 Monday.

Baltimore Ravens: Running backs Mark Ingram II and J.K. Dobbins tested positive for COVID and will not be available for Thursday night's game at Pittsburgh. The SuperBook had the Ravens +3.5, but took this game off the board Monday morning after the COVID news, awaiting more clarity on the situation. The game was still off the board Monday night.

Chicago Bears: Quarterbacks Nick Foles (hip) and Mitch Trubisky (shoulder) are both uncertain to be available for the Sunday night game at Green Bay. The SuperBook has yet to post this game, waiting for the Bears to clarify who will be under center before doing so.

Minnesota Vikings: Wideout Adam Thielen was placed on the reserve/COVID list Monday, a day after he had eight catches for 123 yards and two touchdowns in a home loss to Dallas. Minnesota hosts Carolina on Sunday, and this game still hasn't hit the board due to the Panthers' QB situation (see below).

Carolina Panthers: QB Teddy Bridgewater (knee) sat out Sunday's win over Detroit, with P.J. Walker instead leading the victory. It appears Bridgewater will be back this week at Minnesota, but it's not certain yet, so The SuperBook hasn't posted the Panthers-Vikings line.

New England Patriots: Running back Rex Burkhead suffered a serious knee injury, perhaps a torn ACL, in Sunday's loss at Houston. The SuperBook opened the Pats +2.5 at home against Arizona in Week 12, and the line spent about 12 hours at +3 before returning +2.5 Monday morning. However, the total is up to 49.5 from an opener of 48.

Los Angeles Chargers: Running back Austin Ekeler (hamstring), out since getting hurt in Week 4, might return this week, but it's not yet clear. The Chargers opened +5.5 at Buffalo. moved to +6 and back to +5.5 Monday at The SuperBook.

Week 12 Weather

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: The early forecast calls for a 40 percent chance of showers during the day and a 20 percent chance at night, with the Ravens and Steelers wrapping up a three-game Thanksgiving feast in an 8:20 p.m. ET start. The total opened at 46 and dipped to 45 Monday morning at The SuperBook, before this game came off the board altogether due to the aforementioned Ravens COVID news.

New York Giants at Cincinnati Bengals: There's a 40 percent chance of showers in Cincinnati on Sunday. The SuperBook opened the total at 43 and dipped to 41.5, then ticked up to 42.5 Monday.

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars: Early in the week, Sunday's forecast shows a 40 percent chance of afternoon rain. However, this total was up to 48.5 by Monday morning, off an opener of 46.5 at The SuperBook.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: It'll be cold and perhaps snowy and a little breezy Sunday night at Lambeau Field. The early forecast points to temperatures in the 20s, a 30 percent chance of snow flurries and winds of 10-20 mph.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-26-2020, 08:10 AM

Tech Trends - Week 12
Bruce Marshall

Week 12 of the NFL season kicks off on Thanksgiving, and we've identified betting trends and angles for all the matchups.

We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Thursday, Nov. 26

HOUSTON at DETROIT
Detroit has lost 13 of its last 16 games when playing on Thanksgiving
Detroit is 4-3 vs. the line in last seven games when playing on Thanksgiving
Detroit is 3-7 vs. the line in last 10 home games
Detroit has gone OVER the point total in eight of its last 13 games
Houston is 1-5-1 vs. the spread in last seven road games

Tech Edge: OVER based on point total trends.

WASHINGTON at DALLAS
Dallas is 2-8 vs. the line this year
Dallas is 1-8 vs. the points in last nine games when playing on Thanksgivinng
Dallas has gone UNDER the point total in four of its last five games

Tech Edge: Washington and UNDER based on point total and extended series trends.

BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH
Baltimore is 2-5-1 vs. the spread over last eight games
Baltimore has covered the spread in four of its last five games when playing in Pittsburgh
Baltimore has won five straight games as the underdog
The point total has gone OVER in three straight games played between both teams

Tech Edge: Baltimore and OVER based on series trends annd point total trends.

Thursday 11/26/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Thursday 11/26/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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