Thursday 11/26/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Kenny Walker

Nov 26 '20, 7:00 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | New Mexico vs Utah State
Play on: New Mexico -6 -101 at pinnacle

Free Pick on New Mexico

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Mike Williams

Nov 26 '20, 7:00 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | New Mexico vs Utah State
Play on: New Mexico -6 -110 at Mirage

1* on New Mexico -6 -110

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Cole Faxon

Nov 26 '20, 7:00 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | New Mexico vs Utah State
Play on: New Mexico -6½ -108 at Draft Kings

FREE PLAY on New Mexico -6½ -108

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Black Widow

Nov 26 '20, 7:00 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | New Mexico vs Utah State
Play on: OVER 51 -110

1* Free Wiseguy Play on New Mexico/Utah State over 51 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Sawyer

Nov 26 '20, 7:00 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | New Mexico vs Utah State
Play on: OVER 51½ -102

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR THURSDAY, 11/26:
My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. Looking ahead to the action on Thanksgiving Thursday, the last play on my cut list is the New Mexico-Air Force Over the Total. New Mexico (0-4) remained winless in four games on Friday with their 28-0 shutout loss at Air Force. But the Lobos have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. New Mexico surrendered 356 rushing yards in the loss to the Falcons — and the Over is also 3-1-1 in New Mexico’s last 5 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Utah State (0-4) is also winless after suffering a 35-16 loss to Fresno State two Saturdays ago on November 14th. The Aggies have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. Utah State has also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total at home. Take the Over. Best of luck — Frank.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

Camarero - Race 2	Pick 6 / Exacta / Daily Double 2-3
Claiming $4,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 39 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 3:10P
FOR NATIVE FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON $7,000 IN 2020 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $4,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 7, 2020 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 22, 2020 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 22, 2020 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. NEGRI is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * NEGRI: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase S peed Figure at the distance/surface. AERONAUTICO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
7	NEGRI	2/1	5/2
4	AERONAUTICO	3/1	5/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	NEGRI	7	2/1	Alternator/Front-runner	41	36	50.6	32.4	29.4
4	AERONAUTICO	4	3/1	Stalker	46	26	46.2	36.6	33.1
6	HERALDO	6	5/1	Trailer	42	33	12.8	12.6	4.6
3	SALINENSE	3	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	30.2	22.2	14.2
2	EL PEDREGAL	2	4/1	Alternator/Trailer	29	27	17.3	20.0	11.0
1	PEQUENO ADRIAN	1	10/1	Alternator/Trailer	32	23	15.9	19.8	8.8
5	HIPOCRATES	5	20/1	Alternator/Trailer	40	15	15.0	18.6	10.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel Park

Laurel Park - Race 5	EXACTA, TRIFECTA &DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 5-6) /10 cent SUPERFECTA 50 cent PICK 3 (RACES 5-6-7) / 50 cent PICK 4 (RACES 5-6-7-8) $1.00 SUPER HIGH 5
Claiming $25,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 71 • Purse: $30,000 • Post: 1:37P
(PLUS UP TO 30% MBF) FOR TWO YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 26 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $20,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) WHICH HAVE NOT BEEN PERMITTED LASIX WITHIN 48 HOURS OF POST TIME.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. NATTY BEAU is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * NATTY BEAU: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
7	NATTY BEAU	9/5	2/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	NATTY BEAU	7	9/5	Front-runner	65	73	66.4	61.2	56.2
3	SILVER SUN	3	3/1	Stalker	67	67	47.0	55.2	47.2
2	KENTUCKY COOL	2	5/2	Trailer	60	69	30.3	50.5	45.5
4	TWITTY CITY	4	9/2	Trailer	66	67	17.8	50.9	45.4
6	LITTLE LION	6	20/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	30.3	57.8	50.8
5	BRIBERY	5	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	60	54	38.0	48.7	37.7
1	JUST NOD AND SMILE	1	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	67	47	24.5	43.4	30.9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Churchill Downs

11/26/20, CD, Race 1, 11.30 ET
11/26/20,CD,1,1M [Dirt] 1:33:01 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $33,000. FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $10,000 OR LESS IN 2019 - 2020 OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Non-winners Of Two Races At A Mile Or Over Since September 26 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $20,000 (Races Where Entered For $16,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	4	Gianna's Gift	8/1	Court J K	Miller Jerome F.	TS	79	35.44	1.19/$1
097.4183	3	Centerfold Angel	6/1	Bejarano R	Macias Adolfo	W	232	27.59	1.08/$1
096.2906	6	Seeds of Time	5/2	Hernandez. Jr. B J	Flint Bernard S.		412	31.80	1.16/$1
095.9986	1A	Wish You Were Mine	4/1	Corrales G	Hollendorfer Jerry	L	412	31.80	1.16/$1
095.8896	5	Shackleford County(b+)	3/1	Geroux F	Cano Juan M.	F	69	39.13	1.26/$1
095.7988	8	Kimberley Dream	15/1	Bowen R	Winston Freddie D.		79	35.44	1.19/$1
093.5853	1	Zabava(b-)	4/1	Corrales G	Hollendorfer Jerry	EC	412	31.80	1.16/$1
093.5697	7	Folly	6/1	Cannon D	Newton Troy		412	31.80	1.16/$1
093.4930	2	Merada	10/1	McKee J	Reed Eric R.		79	35.44	1.19/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 27.6300, ROI 1.0789/$1
. . . .
100.0000 4 Gianna's Gift
[Category]Condition
[AllDirt]MorningLineOddsGreaterThanOrEqualTo1

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Charles Town - Race #4 - Post: 8:25pm - Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 71

Rating:

#8 YOU MADE IT (ML=7/2)
#2 FLOWERS VALE (ML=6/1)


YOU MADE IT - This jockey and handler's equines have been producing a lucrative return on investment. I think the shorter trip will help this filly stay the trip. Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this campaigner is encountering an easier field than last time around the track at Monmouth Park. FLOWERS VALE - Ran last race out against better company at Charles Town. The move to a lower level should suit her well. This mare runs very well off of a layoff. Batista and his horse make quite a duo. Together they've been winning at a clip of 67 percent. This tight track favors early speed horses starting from the inside. Seeing as this is what we have with this horse, I'm going to take a long look at this one.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 MY T TALK (ML=9/2), #7 VIBRANT GINGER (ML=6/1), #6 UNKISS ME (ML=6/1),

MY T TALK - To me, when a entrant adds wraps in her last event, it's never a good sign. When examining today's class rating, she will have to register a much better speed fig than last time around the track to be competitive in this dirt sprint. VIBRANT GINGER - This mare hasn't had any recent favorable outcomes in short distance events. Not easy to play her in this race. UNKISS ME - You believe this horse is going to finish first just because she's always close. Just doesn't get the job done often.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - YOU MADE IT - This filly's previous successes on grass make her a dominant choice in this race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #8 YOU MADE IT to win. Have to have odds of at least 7/5 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	8 with 2 with [1,3,6] Total Cost: $3
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Del Mar

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $38000 Class Rating: 106

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE AUGUST 26, 2020 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000, IF FOR $35,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 LIONITE 5/1
# 4 JULIUS 5/2
# 7 HORSE GREEDY 3/1

I've got to go with LIONITE. This gelding obviously likes the distance, going 3 / 10 in his races lately. JULIUS - With a reliable jock who has won at a competitive 23 percent rate over the last 30 days. This has to be one of the top choices. Has very good front speed and will most likely fare soundly versus this group. HORSE GREEDY - Ought to be used in the exotic wagers. Overall, has one of the best earnings per start in dirt sprint races in this field.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fair Grounds

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 10 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $47000 Class Rating: 74

FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 G'S SQUEEZE 12/1
# 6 SMITTYS BARRACUDA 6/1
# 5 WORLD WAR 6/1

G'S SQUEEZE has a respectable shot to take this race particularly if the morning line of 12/1 holds. The progeny of Bind have produced very solid figs racing in their first asking, combining for a +12 ROI. Deserves a chance given very strong bloodlines. SMITTYS BARRACUDA - Handler boasts very strong win numbers at this distance and surface.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Churchill Downs - Race #10 - Post: 3:53pm - Stakes - 9.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $200,000 Class Rating: 104 Falls City S. (Grade 2)

Rating:

#5 OUR SUPER FREAK (ML=9/2)
#1 ENVOUTANTE (ML=5/2)
#4 SMOOTH WITH A KICK (ML=5/1)


OUR SUPER FREAK - Sneaky speed on this one. She'll probably be stalking ponies on the back side, then crush them down the stretch. ENVOUTANTE - Utilizing this jockey/trainer combination is a good move. This one likes to win at different tracks. The switch in venue today may be a wake up call. This horse has been cleaning up at this distance. I have to like her chances again right here. This filly's last speed fig recorded on September 27th is at the top in last race speed ratings. SMOOTH WITH A KICK - My handicapping know-how tells me to be ready for this animal in this race

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 BONNY SOUTH (ML=8/5),

BONNY SOUTH - Tough to back a sophomore meeting older for the first time. Probably needs more experience. Won't be easy for this thoroughbred to beat this bunch off of that last fig. Unlikely to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class rating, so put her on the questionable challengers list.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#5 OUR SUPER FREAK to win at post-time odds of 7/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4,5] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,4,5] with [1,4,5] with [1,2,3,4,5] with [1,2,3,4,5] Total Cost: $36