Sunday 11/29/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-29-2020, 07:23 AM

Al Cimaglia: Pompano Park Pick 4 Analysis

November 29, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Pompano Park has a 9-race card scheduled for this evening with the headliners being 2-year-old fillies in the Florida Stallion Stakes. The 0.50 Pick 4 begins in Race 6. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a low 12% takeout and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

3-Gibbs (3-1)-This is the 3rd start back for this veteran and now Hennessey takes the lines. Drops to a spot to shine and 12-year-old may take 1st picture since July.
4-When You Dance (8/5)-Morning line chalk was holding its own in Kentucky and now makes PPk debut. Has raced in 51 and change on the 5/8's and looks like a threat if doesn't need a start at the track.
7-Captain Malicious (7/2)-Steps-up after getting on the engine and not looking back. Has the gate speed to get the top here and it's best to respect chances for a repeat.

Race 7

3-Rockntouch (2-1)-Tried to wire the field last week and that didn't work as an odds-on favorite. Hennessey sticks and maybe tactics will change back and will look to come off cover.
5-Grand Galop Semalu (15-1)-Closed nicely in last with a 55.4 back half but the pace was tepid. Looks worth a swing because this pace should be lively and Ingraham could come off cover with a better outcome.
7-Bell I No (9/5)-Ships in from Phl and has banked >$102k this year but has not raced since 11/8. Does have good gate speed to be forwardly placed but has only raced at the Pomp once and didn't hit the board. Should be a player if ready for a top effort and will probably be bet hard.

Race 8

4-Maxdaddy Blue Chip (4-1)-This will be the 3rd start at the PPk and might be ready to bring a big try. Has been racing from well off the pace and could be ready for a more aggressive drive.
7-Mach West (3-1)-Has had trouble beating Ideal Feeling in last 2 starts but that's not an issue tonight. Hennessey should find a way to get a close-up seat and may have found a beatable field.

Race 9

7-Caviart Regan (8/5)-Steps-up after getting to the point by the half from post 10 and then cruised home at 4/5. Hennessey should be able to work a trip and appears to be a player versus this crew.
8-Dash Of Danger (5-1)-Had an even effort in an Open Handicap and was off for 3 weeks before that start. Just missed beating the $30k at HoP and should fit with these. Doesn't show a start at the Pomp but have to believe barn knows the smaller oval won't be an issue.

0.50 Pick 4

3,4,7/3,5,7/4,7/7,8
Total Bet=$18

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-29-2020, 07:24 AM

Jeff Siegel's National Best Plays - 11/29/20

November 29, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s National Best Plays for Sunday, November 29, 2020

Aqueduct Fourth Race – Post Time: 1:19 ET
7 – The Sound (5/2)

It took a very good colt (Idol) to deny this colt a debut win at Churchill Downs in late September but with that race under his belt this speedy son of Hard Spun would not be denied in his most recent outing at Belmont Park last month, with both outings producing strong speed figures. Today, the B. Cox-trained sophomore moves into first-level allowance company while stretching out to a one-turn mile, and given the projected pace flow he seems certain to be the controlling speed without any early pressure. Given that type of trip, we’re expecting him to score again, and at 5/2 on the morning line we’ll make him a win play and rolling exotic single.

*

Aqueduct Sixth Race – Post Time: 2:15 ET
9 – Third Draft (6-1)

Was given an easy run in her debut when rallying from far back to be a fast-finishing third sprinting over the Belmont Park turf course last month and today should get serious with that bit of experience behind her and this stretch out in trip. Maidens from Shug’s barn almost always improve (21% with a strong flat-bet profit), so we’re expecting this daughter of Curlin to step forward in a big way. Listed at 6-1 on the morning line and offering considerable value at the price, she’s a solid win play and rolling exotic single.

*

Del Mar First Race – Post Time: 12:00 PT
9 – Superstition (4-1)

Progressive daughter of Ghostzapper graduated over this course and distance two weeks ago with a career top performance, one that should allow her to successfully handle this one-level class hike despite the quick turnaround. The R. Mandella-trained filly projects to draft into a comfortable pace stalking trip and then have every chance to seal the deal from the quarter pole home. F. Prat stays aboard and knows her well, so at 4-1 on the morning line let’s make her a win play and rolling exotic key.

*

Del Mar Third Race – Post Time: 12:59 PT
10 – Du Jour (6-1)

Nice 2-year-old prospect is bred for turf (Temple City) and makes his debut over a mile on grass in this wide-open maiden juvenile miler that seems within his capabilities. Has done every in the morning like a very nice type for B. Baffert, gets M. Smith, and should be plenty fit following a strong, healthy work tab. He’s 6-1 on the morning line and we suspect he’s much better than that, so let’s try him in the win pool and as a rolling exotic single.

*

Del Mar Fifth Race – Post Time: 1:59 PT
4 – Anaconda (7/2)

Loved his debut maiden win over the local lawn three weeks ago, and while he’s stretching out, moving up to face winners and giving away loads of experience to his seasoned rivals this son of Pioneerof the Nile appears to be a cut above the norm. The R. Mandella-trained colt has trained very well since raced, retains D. Van Dyke, and projects to be on the lead or in a comfortable stalking position throughout. He’s 7/2 on the morning line and at that price he’s quite playable.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-29-2020, 07:26 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mountaineer - Race #7

#6 Sterling Caesar	He's certainly a swing off the layoff, but he owns some good speed that may allow him to control the tempo, and the price should be right for a thrill on the engine.
#8 J J Wedgit Man	Drops out of stakes company, but he'll be running from off the pace at a level where he has had a few chances -- can't even start to consider at something like the even-money ML offering.
#2 Unbridledselection	Reliable type rarely runs a bad one, and he stepped up nicely to run second when facing winners for the first time last out. Not impossible.
Race Summary	Sterling Caesar needs his best stuff, but this isn't a particularly deep bunch, and the heavy morning line chalk is far from a standout with these.

Mountaineer - Race #8

#8 Dichotomy	She made a bid from close range with similar last out, and she'll get another good run near the top from the high draw today.
#7 Janet's Mae	Has been in with some decent groups at Canterbury, and her ceiling is definitely high enough to win this if she handles the local footing.
#1 Such Great Heights	Has won three of her last four and has enough speed to be in the mix in the early going, but the trip could get a bit tricky with that tactical pace from the fence.
Race Summary	Dichotomy can land a first-over trip with these, and her most recent effort would keep her in the mix today if she can repeat it.

Mountaineer - Race #6

#7 Lincoln Center	Usually have little interest in taking a 12-start maiden, but there isn't much else in this race to land on. I wouldn't want anything shorter than the 5/2 ML price, but this is her race to lose.
#8 Another Rachel	Offers a bit of intrigue after the chase and fade run at Keeneland in the debut, and while this group is going to be softer, she has a long way to come in this second start if she's going to best the top choice.
#1 Candycream	Didn't show anything in the turf try last time out, but the local debut wasn't bad in the mud, and something similar to that would keep her in the mix here.
Race Summary	Lincoln Center has had plenty of chances, but she is landing in a very soft spot today with recent running lines that would probably do the trick.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-29-2020, 07:26 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #1

#1 Gidgetta	Drops down after a fifth in the G3 Santa Ysabel last out and takes her game over to the turf; she undoubtedly bred to do it, gets Rosario up and comes from the hot Baltas barn.
#5 Greg's Diva	She's extremely fast and was solid in her last two, first when she was third in the Speakeasy and most recently second in an optional claiming. The distance is right in her wheel house.
#3 Nu Pi Lambda	Was up in time at Santa Anita last out and keeps Smith for the ride; capable of another big effort.
Race Summary	Gidgetta moves to the turf, can benefit from the ground saving trip and can dig in vs. these.

Del Mar - Race #5

#4 Anaconda	Cruised to an impressive win in his only start and will have no problem stretching out; looks like Mandella has another runner and he can pad his 40-percent win clip during the current meet.
#11 Liberal	Was along for fourth in his last two and can be close to the pace in this one; gets Smith aboard and will be rolling late.
#1 Maestro Dearte	Has competed well vs. a higher level and comes in off a fifth going longer; late threat.
Race Summary	Anaconda was sharp in his only start and is bred to stretch out; Mandella barn has been impressive, as usual, and has another potential star on its hands.

Del Mar - Race #7

#11 Wootton Asset	Lost the Laurel Futurity by a nose and was most recently fourth in the Award at Aqueduct. Followed slow fractions in each on yielding tracks and will probably benefit from a faster pace and firm course here.
#1 Ebeko	Off since a ninth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at Keeneland and when he last appeared on this course was a fast-closing second in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf. Gets back to good form today.
#7 Royal Prince	Broke his maiden on the Keeneland turf and the Cox barn is always one to consider; he's lightly raced but likely talented.
Race Summary	Wootton Asset rallied on yielding courses and makes his first on a firm course; can roll from behind against a faster pace that he's seen.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-29-2020, 07:30 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fair Grounds

Fair Grounds - Race 6	Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 6-8) / $0.50 Pick 5 (Races 6-10)
Maiden Special • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Turf • Age 2 • CR: 84 • Purse: $42,000 • Post: 3:31P
(RAIL AT 8 FEET). FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. (PREFERENCE TO HORSES THAT HAVE NOT STARTED FOR LESS THAN $50,000 IN THEIR LAST 3 STARTS). (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT 5 AND 1/2 FURLONGS.)

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * FOLIAGE: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Ho rse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. PRAIRIE: A first time starter with a trainer that has a return on investment with first time starters of at least +50 (minimum 10 starts). Today is a horse's first or second race on turf, and turf starters from this sire have a win percentage of at least 15 (minimum of 50 starts). CLARESTOWN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CEES GET DEGREES: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
1	FOLIAGE	5/2	9/2
1A	PRAIRIE	5/2	5/1
4	CLARESTOWN	6/1	7/1
8	CEES GET DEGREES	6/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	CLARESTOWN	4	6/1	Front-runner	76	76	69.7	65.3	55.8
6	EMERALD FOREST	7	8/1	Front-runner	77	54	48.1	59.1	52.1
1	FOLIAGE	3	5/2	Stalker	83	78	65.4	73.0	68.5
7	HEALS THE SOUL	8	9/2	Stalker	74	63	47.1	60.1	48.1
10	BLUSHINSTREETDEVIL	11	8/1	Stalker	71	64	33.6	61.0	51.5
8	CEES GET DEGREES	9	6/1	Trailer	82	69	23.7	61.6	54.1
2	CITADEL	1	15/1	Trailer	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9	INVINCIBILITY	10	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	35.6	55.7	43.2

Unknown Running Style: LEROY JENKINS (20/1) [Jockey: Sanjur Santo - Trainer: Alonzo Howard], PRAIRIE (5/2) [Jockey: Mena Miguel - Trainer: Stall Jr Albert M], CALIFORNIA HOLIDAY (8/1) [Jockey: Murrill Mitchell - Trainer: Stidham Michael].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-29-2020, 07:31 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Hawthorne

Hawthorne - Race 3	$1 Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 20 Cent Superfecta 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) / 20 Cent Jackpot Pick 6 (Races 3-8) $1 Daily Double
Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 88 • Purse: $9,500 • Post: 4:06P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 29 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). IN THE EVENT THAT THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF IT WILL BE CONTESTED AT ONE MILE AND SEVENTY YARDS ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * MIRACLE MOUNTAIN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackM aster Power Rating. ANGELINO: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). HALF OF M ANHATTAN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. HANNITY: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Jockey/Trainer combi nation return on investment is at least +20.
9	MIRACLE MOUNTAIN	5/2	4/1
11	ANGELINO	10/1	7/1
2	HALF OF MANHATTAN	5/1	7/1
3	HANNITY	30/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	CROW MOON	8	4/1	Front-runner	90	81	107.8	83.4	76.9
2	HALF OF MANHATTAN	2	5/1	Front-runner	90	82	104.8	86.6	82.6
1	CONTRACTION	1	10/1	Front-runner	90	84	80.4	74.0	64.0
5	ELUSIVE FORCE	5	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	81	77	97.1	79.8	66.3
3	HANNITY	3	30/1	Alternator/Stalker	97	96	82.5	79.2	65.7
11	ANGELINO	11	10/1	Trailer	87	84	89.2	83.8	73.3
4	HE'S DANN GOOD	4	10/1	Trailer	81	77	67.8	67.8	51.3
9	MIRACLE MOUNTAIN	9	5/2	Alternator/Trailer	90	86	89.8	84.6	77.6
10	NORCO	10	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	90	85	102.0	80.8	69.8
7	THEMANBEHINDTHEMAN	7	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	99	98	91.6	65.0	50.0
6	DANCIN NICKY	6	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	37.5	37.0	15.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-29-2020, 07:32 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Trial - 400y on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 101

QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT: 124, LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 KISS THRU FIRE 3/1
# 2 RUNFORYOURLIFE 3/1
# 5 CIRCLE CITY 2/1

KISS THRU FIRE is my choice. Tough to pass on this filly with Valenzuela in the irons. Could beat this group given the 88 Equibase Speed Fig posted in her last outing. RUNFORYOURLIFE - Overall the speed figs of this pony look very strong in this contest. Is a solid contender based on figs posted lately under today's conditions. CIRCLE CITY - Have to consider solely on class, with some of the strongest class figs of this group. Will almost certainly go to the front end and may never look back.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-29-2020, 07:33 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Churchill Downs - Race #4 - Post: 2:27pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,500 Class Rating: 88

Rating:

#5 HALF TRICK (ML=7/2)
#2 WITCH DOCTOR (ML=5/1)

HALF TRICK - If this gelding gets out of the gate cleanly, he'll be tough to catch. I like to bet on this angle, a racer coming back off a good contest within the last 30 days. A repeat of that latest performance on November 14th where he garnered a speed rating of 88 looks strong enough to prove victorious in this race. WITCH DOCTOR - This rider/conditioner duo has been producing a high win percentage, right around 33. I think this gelding could run back to his winning race from Sep 3rd, when he won a $16,000 Claiming race, a higher class than today's race. Have to make this gelding a strong challenger; he comes off a sharp race on Nov 18th. Look at this pattern of improvement. 70/80/84 are the last three Equibase speed figures.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 COUNTY COURT (ML=4/1), #1 GRATS ROAD (ML=9/2), #8 PRADAR (ML=9/2),

COUNTY COURT - Tough for this closer horse to get up today. Without a hot pace to stir things up, the lone pace is going to make it awfully hard to get the job done. GRATS ROAD - Showed very little in the last event. Really don't expect any change today. PRADAR - When scrutinizing today's class figure, he will have to record a better speed rating than last time out to vie in this dirt route.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #5 HALF TRICK to win if you can get odds of 5/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-29-2020, 07:34 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Laurel

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $33000 Class Rating: 76

FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000, IF FOR $35,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. MD-BRED AND/OR MD-SIRED HORSES MAY WAIVE CLAIMING PRICE IN THIS RACE.WHICH HAVE NOT BEEN PERMITTED LASIX WITHIN 48 HOURS OF POST TIME.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 RIP IT 6/1
# 7 ALL THREES 8/5
# 2 RAPID RESPONSE 6/1

RIP IT looks decent to best this field. Had one of the most respectable speed figs of this field in his last outing. With a nice class fig average of 85, has one of the top class advantages in this field. Displays reliable Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this field. ALL THREES - Has decent front speed and will probably fare very well against this group. Could best this field based on the Equibase Speed Fig - 66 - of his last contest. RAPID RESPONSE - A solid 78 avg class figure may give this gelding a distinct class edge versus this field. Has performed solidly recently in sprint races, posting a nifty 56 avg Equibase Speed Figure.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-29-2020, 07:35 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Cross Country Pick Four - Race #5 - Post: 3:44pm - Stakes - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $100,000 Class Rating: 92 Tepin S. AQU

Rating:

#3 LEXINATOR (ML=8/1)
#2 LOVESTRUCK (ML=7/5)
#6 HIT THE WOAH (ML=8/5)
#4 INVINCIBLE GAL (GB) (ML=2/1)

LEXINATOR - This thoroughbred coming off a strong effort in the last month or so is a strong challenger in my book. This deep closer should have a solid impact on this race. Expect a big stretch run. Came home fast last out at Aqueduct. That type of move bodes well for her chances in this race. 72-81-91 are last 3 speed ratings. Improving each time out is something she should do again in this race. LOVESTRUCK - Lots of trouble in the last race out. This time around Alvarado should keep her clean so she runs a good race. This mount could be tough this time, especially since Alvarado rode in the last race and now should be plenty familiar with this one. Ranked at the very top in (EPS) earnings per start. Another notice that this horse outclasses this field. HIT THE WOAH - Clement has a very solid win pct in turf routes. This filly should be in great shape. I like that recent race on November 13th at Aqueduct where she finished first. INVINCIBLE GAL (GB) - A definite class advantage goes to this horse. What that tells me is she will be very competitive in this race on the turf. Comparing how the horses in this field have fared under similar conditions, I see this horse has the highest speed rating for the distance and surface. This horse is for real on the turf. TrackMaster turf figure in last race at Keeneland was tops in this field. Past performance lines show this thoroughbred with three improving speed figures. Ortiz should be on a live horse right here. Entered the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at Keeneland last out and raced on the soft turf finishing eleventh. Should do much better today. The 98 latest race speed figure looks mighty good on paper.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 MALIBU CURL (ML=5/2), #8 DOLLAR MOUNTAIN (ML=5/1), #10 ISLAND TREASURE (ML=6/1),

MALIBU CURL - Finished first in her most recent performance with a most unsatisfactory speed rating. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this field. DOLLAR MOUNTAIN - Won't be easy for this mount to beat this field off of that last speed rating. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class figure, so put her on the likely underpriced equines list. ISLAND TREASURE - This filly won last time, but probably won't do it today versus tougher competition.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - INVINCIBLE GAL (GB) - Look for this filly to run well versus these thoroughbreds. Last time out, scored a fraction of 113.3 and a final time of 136.9, registering a very strong final quarter.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#3 LEXINATOR to win at post-time odds of 9/2 or better