Tuesday 12/1/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mountaineer - Race #1

#1 Crimson Ride	Went evenly most of the way in the debut before fading a bit late, but the added ground should work in her favor with a pedigree that hints she'll handle the trip.
#8 Carry On	Claimed out of the $15,000 debut at Keeneland, and she is another with a pedigree to go long. Tough to discount the barn, but I wouldn't be too thrilled about a prohibitive price here.
#7 Little Empire	Distant third in the first route try, but she made a big move into the lane that day before flattening, and she may sustain that rally better with that route run under her belt.
Race Summary	Crimson Ride is bred to handle the added ground while stretching out, and the price may be fair with Carry On likely to take some cash for a hot barn.

Mountaineer - Race #7

#7 He's Reckless	Has shown better form on the main track, so the surface switch could work in his favor in this spot. Thinking something like the FP tries might do.
#6 Illuminati	The one to beat is listed at 3/5 on the ML, and while something like his last might do the trick, he doesn't feel like a 3/5 shot on paper to me, so I'll take a stand against here if he gets bet.
#5 Hero of Perfection	Steps up after showing some pace with cheaper, and he may be able to stick around for an underneath piece while showing the way early with the chalk.
Race Summary	He's Reckless has some bounce-back potential after a couple of turf tries, and the price may be right with Illuminati likely to take his share of cash.

Mountaineer - Race #8

#1 Van Damme	A couple of pace elements may set things up for this guy to have a run at the leaders in the lane, and he was competitive with similar here last year.
#9 Fleet Irish	Easily handled similar in late October in his only local start, and while the rest of his form is nothing to write home about, he proved a good fit with this kind and is a threat with the locals again.
#10 Levanto	Surprisingly dull run last time out when showing little at even money, but he's generally a good fit with this kind and can bounce back at a better price today.
Race Summary	Van Damme might get the right kind of setup with these from off the pace, and his recent form stacks up nicely with what it'd take to handle these.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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The Meadows - Race #2

#1 NEZBLANC	Romped two back, sustained wide rally in follow-up, good value play.
#2 TUESDAY MORNING	Rallied for a win, second and a third in last six starts, price attached.
#7 HEIDI’S HEART	Rallied for minor awards in her last four starts out of town.
Race Summary	Nezblanc draws the rail while in top form. He launched a 3- and 4-wide bid near the ¾-mile mark and just missed second. He benefited when the race favorite went off stride twice. Play 1-2 and 1-7 exactas.

Northfield Park - Race #1

#1 SCIROCCO ROCBOOGIE	No threat to runaway fave, appears rounding to good race.
#9 SPIRITUAL SON	Was 1-2 at stretch call in four straight before break in latest.
#3 WHISKEYFORTHELADY	Filly finished in the money in 8 of 13 starts this year.
Race Summary	Scirocco Rocboogie got up for third behind the runaway, even money winner. He projects an ideal stalking trip from the rail with plenty of pace up ahead. Play 1-3 and 1-9 exactas.

Yonkers - Race #2

#2 INTEROVER	Discount latest, looms forward factor at 6-1 odds off prior start.
#5 CON AIR HALL	Made up ground from post 8, can surpass $50k in yearly earnings.
#7 IN MY DREAMS	Led until stretch in front-end assignment, held third, moves inside out.
Race Summary	Interover, no factor from post 8 on the class drop to this level, ran well enough in his race prior to win here. He was shuffled behind the back-pedaling pocket-sitter while the odds-on favorite ran away from the field. He finished willingly on the rail and should be forwardly placed throughout today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

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Mahoning Valley - Race #4

#1 Totellyouthetruth	Held fourth in a similar spot at Thistledown and has won a couple of races over this strip; Ohio-bred has held his own vs. open company.
#3 Winchester Limit	Set the pace in his last two and was caught late in each; has shown a lot of speed lately but can revert to a few races on his form in which he showed late interest.
#4 Lazarus Project	Was third vs. bottom claimers at Saratoga in July and most recently was fifth at Mountaineer; can improve in his second start for Bernardini.
Race Summary	Totellyouthetruth can carve a decent trip just off the pace and will be in a good spot when the front-end battlers lose their edge.

Mahoning Valley - Race #6

#6 Caloric	Has spent much of his time on all-weather surfaces but has done it vs. strong company; was a closing fourth in Turfway's Forego early in the year and has been getting outrun in some tough spots at Presque Isle lately. Half of his four wins came over conventional tracks.
#7 Montauk Cove	Looks like the fave after three straight win, the last two vs. solid company; serious front-end threat today.
#8 Big Trip	Just missed in his last one at Thistledown and despite the step up in class brings on speed to the game.
Race Summary	Caloric has been up against much better and can benefit from a peppy pace in front of him; can be rollling from the back of the pack.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#6 Ohio Munny	Was along for fourth vs. similar last time and can improve in his second of the claim by Londono; can be a quality stalker in this spot.
#9 Quality Man	Was second in three of his last four and won one three races back; is in good form and has the speed to be dangerous.
#8 Tapaway	Turns back from longer races vs. similar and likely will have plenty left for a good rally; dangerous.
Race Summary	Ohio Munny can get a good run just off the pace and can get first move on the deep closers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing

Parx Racing - Race 5	Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 50 cent Pick 4 (Races 5-8) / 10 cent Superfecta
Claiming $16,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $20,000 • Post: 2:13P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 1 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. JW'S THIRD MISCHIE is the Lone Front-runner of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * KID D'ORO: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30. NAUGHTY PRINCE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. TOWN JAK: Horse has run a Go od Race within the last 30 days. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. MISSION OBERON: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the dist ance/surface.
2	KID D'ORO	3/1	5/1
4	NAUGHTY PRINCE	9/2	6/1
8	TOWN JAK	7/2	7/1
1	MISSION OBERON	15/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	JW'S THIRD MISCHIE	3	15/1	Front-runner	71	51	65.2	60.4	45.9
2	KID D'ORO	2	3/1	Stalker	79	85	70.6	76.4	73.4
4	NAUGHTY PRINCE	4	9/2	Stalker	84	84	45.8	78.6	71.1
8	TOWN JAK	8	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	82	81	54.4	72.0	63.5
10	DRAMATIZED	10	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	85	76	53.8	42.2	29.2
6	KID MACHO	6	5/1	Trailer	81	77	35.2	58.6	45.1
5	STRICTLY THE BEST	5	6/1	Trailer	76	77	33.8	69.0	58.0
7	ROAN MOUNTAIN	7	8/1	Trailer	84	75	27.4	71.6	58.1
1	MISSION OBERON	1	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	83	87	57.8	71.0	58.0
9	SARGEANT DRIVE	9	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	80	67	46.0	66.6	57.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mahoning Valley Race Course

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 6	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / 50 cent Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8)
Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 93 • Purse: $21,800 • Post: 3:04P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR OHIO BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. MONTAUK COVE is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MONTAUK COVE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/su rface. Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30. BIG TRIP: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at leas t +20.
7	MONTAUK COVE	8/5	2/1
8	BIG TRIP	6/1	5/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	MONTAUK COVE	8	8/5	Front-runner	97	94	84.6	89.4	85.9
8	BIG TRIP	9	6/1	Front-runner	84	88	75.4	81.2	70.7
6	CALORIC	7	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	94	84	46.6	81.4	70.9
2	LET'SCALLITEVEN	1	4/1	Trailer	96	82	61.6	85.3	80.3
1A	GUCCISSIMO	5	10/1	Trailer	81	67	45.8	68.4	52.4
5	COINCIDENTALLY	6	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	89	79	60.2	79.2	69.7
3	BAD LITTLE BEAST	3	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	83	84	54.2	68.6	58.6
1	JAMAICAN MAGIC	2	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	77	66	43.4	72.2	58.2
4	FUNNEL CAKE	4	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	92	75	41.3	63.9	53.9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 72

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 NO MAS 5/2
# 4 AXIS 2/1
# 2B JENNSTONE 5/2

NO MAS is the strongest bet in this race. He must be carefully examined given the quite good speed numbers. With Keiser in the saddle guiding him, this gelding should be able to break out sharply in this event. With a very good 70 speed figure last time out, will clearly be a factor in this contest. AXIS - Will almost certainly go to the lead and may never look back. Earnings per start in dirt sprint races is sound for this equine. JENNSTONE - Has to be carefully examined against this group of horses in this race displaying solid figures lately and an average Equibase Speed Fig of 51 under similar conditions. With a strong 53 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will surely be a factor in this competition.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 82

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 1 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 11 FLASHYBOY BOBB 3/1
# 7 MUTINEER 12/1
# 8 SUCH 15/1

I've got to go with FLASHYBOY BOBB. This gelding looks good in this event since Ramirez has a strong win percentage with horses going this distance. Have to sense that this horse will do well again this time out. Should be carefully examined in this race if only for the solid Equibase speed fig posted in the last race. MUTINEER - Must be carefully examined given the class of races run lately. Has been running admirably and has among the most competitive speed in the race for today's distance.

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Zia Park - Race #7 - Post: 2:42pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 59

Rating:

#2 UPTOWN JERSEY GIRL (ML=8/1)
#8 TIZ TENACIOUS (ML=9/2)


UPTOWN JERSEY GIRL - Gomez and Woolley perform well when they team up. It's hard to beat a +32 ROI for a jockey and conditioner. This filly is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Woolley. TIZ TENACIOUS - I expect this mount to shock some railbirds this time out.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 PREMEDITATED LILY (ML=5/2), #4 MICHELLE WHO (ML=7/2), #1 UNIQUE BABE (ML=4/1),

PREMEDITATED LILY - This morning-line choice ran on November 4th and hasn't had a work after that. MICHELLE WHO - In any race of 6 furlongs, I like to play a contender that has been on the board in short distance affairs lately. UNIQUE BABE - Doesn't appear to be worth 4/1 in today's event. Pass on her this time.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #2 UPTOWN JERSEY GIRL to win. Have to have odds of at least 7/5 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Bryant

Event: (633) Davidson at (634) Providence
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: December 1, 2020 7PM EST
Play: Total Under 139.5 (-110)
PLAYABLE at 138.5 or better
My college hoops totals system is a combination of relevant statistical data from KenPom.com, history involving similar games (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The size of the play is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Leonard

Event: (635) UNLV at (636) Alabama
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: December 1, 2020 9PM EST
Play: Alabama -11.0 (-110)
636 UNLV & Alabama
We dropped our play yesterday on Alabama as the Tide just couldn't get into a rhythm against the stout defense of Stanford. That won't be the case here as the Rebels haven't defended anyone after its first two games. And unlike Stanford, UNLV will want to run with the Tide, which leads to increased possessions and extends the better team's chances to score.
PLAY ALABAMA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price

Dec 01 '20, 7:00 PM in 50m
NCAA-B | Cleveland State vs Toledo
Play on: Toledo -8 -105 at BMaker

Dave’s Tuesday Free Play:
1* on Toledo -8
The Key: The Toledo Rockets are 1-2 but could easily be 3-0 as their 2 losses came to Bradley by 2 and Xavier by 3. They were dogs in both of those games and nearly won them outright. They also beat Oakland by 27. The price is now right to back the Rockets here as only an 8-point favorite over Cleveland State. It’s a Vikings team that went just 11-21 last season and won’t be much better this year. But we don’t know that yet because they haven’t played a single game. That’s a huge advantage for Toledo already having 3 games under its belt against quality competition, while Cleveland State will be playing its first game here. Toledo has won 6 straight meetings with Cleveland State with each of the last 4 wins coming by 11 points or more. Take Toledo.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

Dec 01 '20, 7:00 PM in 50m
NCAA-B | Oklahoma State vs Marquette
Play on: Marquette -2½ -110 at YouWager

1* Free Pick on Marquette -2½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cole Faxon

Dec 01 '20, 7:00 PM in 50m
NCAA-B | Oklahoma State vs Marquette
Play on: Oklahoma State +3½ -110 at Mirage

FREE PLAY on Oklahoma State +3½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Black Widow

Dec 01 '20, 7:00 PM in 50m
NCAA-B | Oklahoma State vs Marquette
Play on: Oklahoma State +4 -109 at Draft Kings

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Oklahoma State +4 -109