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Preston Johnson (ESPN Daily Wager)
ok state -2.5
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Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 14 college football picks, bets, nuggets
College football is in full swing in 2020, and it's unlike any season we have had before. One thing is familiar, though: "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica breaking down games as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on. How will the guys fare this week?
Here is your guide to Week 14 of the season from the two college football analysts. (Games postponed or canceled because of COVID-19 have been removed.)
Records
Stanford Steve (2-1 last week, 23-13 overall)
The Bear (2-0, 20-17)
The plays
No. 3 Clemson Tigers (-22, 67) at Virginia Tech Hokies
Stanford Steve: Last week we expected Clemson to come out with a lot of effort and try to punish Pitt after not being able to play for a couple of weeks without the best player in the sport, QB Trevor Lawrence. I expect a big effort again from the Tigers as they go on the road to show what they have in prime time. I was thinking the over was the play -- and I like it -- but I just can't trust what I think I'm going to get out of the Hokies, as last time we saw them play, they scored 17 vs. Pitt, who was just ambushed by Clemson 52-17. So, we'll take the big road favorite here.
Pick: Clemson -22 (Clemson 52, Virginia Tech 20)
No. 5 Texas A&M Aggies (-7, 49) at Auburn Tigers
The Bear: Last week I was totally opposed to the Tigers in Tuscaloosa, but this week I'm grabbing the points. I don't think Auburn is a great team, but A&M has had as many lethargic performances as good ones, and the Tigers beat LSU in much more impressive fashion than the Aggies did. A&M's pass game has struggled at times this season, and I think Auburn defensive coordinator Kevin Steele will be able to draw up a defense to slow down the Aggies. And being that the game is at Jordan-Hare, we'll get good Bo Nix.
Pick: Auburn +7
No. 23 Oregon Ducks (-10, 59) at California Golden Bears
The Bear: After getting blown out by UCLA, the Bears have lost a couple of close ones, including last week on a blocked PAT. Oregon has been far from impressive this year and has struggled with turnovers and stopping the run. This feels like a good spot to see Cal's best performance of the year after losing a couple of very winnable games.
Pick: Cal +10
Boston College Eagles at Virginia Cavaliers (-6.5, 54.5)
Stanford Steve: I might be scared from the last time we saw the Cavaliers, when they ran the throwback pass in the end zone vs. Abilene Christian that I titled "36 to 99 back to 36," but one of the best head coaching jobs in a first year has to be Jeff Hafley at Boston College. For a team that seemed so run dominant in years past, the Eagles have really balanced things out, thanks in part to transfer QB Phil Jurkovec, who has thrown for over 2,500 yards and 17 TDs in 10 games. The thought here is the Eagles have enough to keep it close. We'll take the points.
Pick: Boston College +6.5 (Virginia 21, Boston College 20)
Kansas Jayhawks at Texas Tech Red Raiders (-27.5, 62.5)
Stanford Steve: The idea of going against the Jayhawks this year on a weekly basis has been very, very good to us this year. But last week I was impressed by the play of Kansas QB Miles Kendrick, and I think the boys from Lawrence will score a couple of points. So, we will go over the total between Lubbock and Les Miles.
Pick: Over 62.5 (Texas Tech 48, Kansas 21)
UCLA Bruins at Arizona State Sun Devils (-3, 55)
The Bear: UCLA's two losses have been of the self-inflicted variety as a result of turnovers. The Bruins have been pounding people with Demetric Felton and the running game and very easily could be 4-0 after a lot of people were running Chip Kelly out of Westwood following the loss to Colorado. We have no idea what to expect from ASU, which has played one game. There's quite a few NFL minds on that sideline, but who knows where the kids' minds are right now.
Pick: UCLA +3.5
The Bear's money line parlay
$100 returns $36
Clemson -2000
Ohio State -4000
Marshall -2400
Florida -800
Texas Tech -4000
Oklahoma -1800
Miami -625
Alabama -4500
The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line, in round robins and parlays
Arkansas +130
Auburn +210
TCU +115
Cal +290
UCLA +135
Bear Bytes
No. 3 Clemson (-22, 67) at Virginia Tech
• Under Justin Fuente, Virginia Tech is 0-6 vs. top-10 teams (1-5 ATS).
• The last time Virginia Tech was this big of an underdog was in 1991 when the Hokies were a 27-point underdog to No. 1 Florida State. The last time Tech was a 20-point underdog at Lane Stadium was in 1988. That was Frank Beamer's second year as head coach.
No. 5 Texas A&M (-7, 49) at Auburn
• Since 2016, Auburn has been a home underdog six times. The Tigers are 5-1 ATS and have won four of them outright.
No. 6 Florida Gators (-17.5, 62.5) at Tennessee Volunteers
• There have been two instances when the favorite in the Florida-Tennessee game has been at least a 17-point favorite: 2009, when the Gators were a 30-point favorite and won 23-13; and 2001, when Florida was a 17.5-point favorite and lost 34-32 to the Vols in Gainesville.
Vanderbilt Commodores at No. 8 Georgia Bulldogs (-35.5, 54)
• Dating to 2018, favorites of greater than 30 points in SEC games are 2-7 ATS. And if you take Alabama out of the equation, they are 0-4 ATS in that span.
No. 10 Miami Hurricanes (NL) at Duke Blue Devils
• Miami's past three games have been decided by a combined nine points. Two were wins as a double-digit favorite. The Canes are 2-10 ATS, with there outright losses in their last 12 games as a 14-point favorite vs. FBS opponents.
No. 12 Indiana Hoosiers at No. 16 Wisconsin Badgers (-14, 45.5)
• The Hoosiers are the only team that is 6-0 ATS. Wisconsin has lost twice since 2018 as greater than a 14-point favorite. The only team to have lost more in that span is San Diego State (three times).
No. 15 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-2.5, 51) at TCU Horned Frogs
• Oklahoma State has won 10 of its past 12 games in which the spread has been between +3 and -3 (8-2-2 ATS).
No. 19 Iowa Hawkeyes (-13.5, 51) at Illinois Fighting Illini
• Iowa's past three Big Ten games as double-digit favorites have all been single-digit wins -- last week vs. Nebraska and last year vs. Illinois and Purdue.
Stanford Cardinal at No. 22 Washington Huskies (-11.5, 50)
• Stanford has failed to cover each of its past seven games and is 2-12 ATS in its past 14 games. Stanford's past three games as a double-digit 'dog have resulted in losses by 21, 21 and 27 points (all non-covers).
No. 23 Oregon (-10, 59) at California
• Under Justin Wilcox, Cal is 18-8 ATS with 11 outright wins as an underdog. As a double-digit 'dog, Cal has won outright four times in 10 games (7-3 ATS).
Texas Longhorns (-7, 51.5) at Kansas State Wildcats
• Under Chris Klieman, Kansas State is 4-0 ATS with three outright wins as a home underdog. Dating to 2018, K-State has covered seven straight as a home 'dog, and over the long haul the Cats are 18-5 ATS with 11 outright wins in their past 23 games as a home underdog. Since 1998, Kansas State is 12-4 ATS vs. Texas.
Penn State Nittany Lions (NL) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
• Rutgers' past three games have been decided by a combined 16 points. Penn State hasn't covered consecutive games since September 2018, a span of 28 games.
Colorado Buffaloes (-7, 59) at Arizona Wildcats
• This is the 19th time in 23 games vs. Power 5 opponents under Kevin Sumlin that the Wildcats are an underdog.Comment
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Allen Eastman
****8-UNIT COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME OF THE YEAR SATURDAY****
Indiana +14.5Comment
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Jason Sharpe
7u CFB play Saturday
Ball St. +1.5Comment
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Tony George
7 Unit PAC 12 Game of the Month
Colorado -7Comment
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Scott Spreitzer
6-U CFB!
Colorado -7Comment
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Doc Sports football
6-UCLA+3
4-over-67-clemson
3-clemson-21.5
3-Tennessee +17.5
2-Ohio state-23.5Comment
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Barrett Sallee
UNDER 59
COLO @ ARIZ | 12/05 | 7:00 PM ESTYESTERDAY 11:43 AM
The Wildcats are 0-3, but don't blame the defense. They've given up 330 or fewer yards in two of their three games. Colorado has legit conference title hopes, but its offense is only averaging 5.06 yards per game -- 10th in the Pac-12. This is going to be far from a shootout.
22-11 IN LAST 33 CFB PICKS | +993
OVER 62
BAYLOR @ OKLA | 12/05 | 8:00 PM ESTYESTERDAY 11:40 AM
The Sooners are on a mission after early season struggles, and that'll continue this week vs. the Bears. The Over has hit in five of Oklahoma's seven games, while the Under has hit in half of Baylor's contests. Give me the Sooners to hang half-a-hundred and the Bears to have enough success to push this one into the 70s.
22-11 IN LAST 33 CFB PICKS | +993
ILL +13.5
IOWA @ ILL | 12/05 | 3:30 PM ESTYESTERDAY 11:33 AM
Iowa hasn't topped the 400-yard mark in any of its last three games, and Illinois has posted an average of 5.91 yards per play over the last four games. The Illini might not have the juice to get the win, but it'll be close through the fourth quarter.
22-11 IN LAST 33 CFB PICKS | +993
OVER 51
OKLAST @ TCU | 12/05 | 12:00 PM ESTYESTERDAY 11:32 AM
The Cowboys offense put up half-a-hundred last week against Texas Tech, and, while TCU's defense is better than that of the Red Raiders, it's still giving up 5.58 yards per play. The Horned Frogs defense has given up 7.06 yards per play against teams that are over .500. The Cowboys will turn this into a track meet.
22-11 IN LAST 33 CFB PICKS | +993
UNDER 48.5
TXAM @ AUBURN | 12/05 | 12:00 PM ESTYESTERDAY 11:31 AM
Texas A&M's defense has been lights out, and Auburn quarterback Bo Nix has shown throughout his career that he gets rattled under pressure on a consistent basis. The Aggies offense was dreadful last week in the win over LSU, and it's hard to figure out a way that it suddenly will get better on the road against a better defense.
22-11 IN LAST 33 CFB PICKS | +993
5-1-1 IN LAST 7 AUBURN O/U PICKS | +390Comment
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Stephen Oh
DATA SCIENTIST
MON 11/30
OREGON @ CALIFORNIA | 12/05 | 7:00 PM EST
OREGON -10
My model says the Ducks cover 60 percent of the time, so you're getting strong value with Oregon at this number. The Ducks opened the season with three wins before falling to Oregon State by three points last time out. Oregon has won 10 of its last 11 meetings with California, with the lone loss in that span coming in overtime. Eight of those victories were by at least 16 points. Take the Ducks.
+290 4-1 IN LAST 5 OREG ATS PICKSComment
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Vanderbilt at Georgia postponed
Buffalo at Ohio canceled
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Gianni the Greek
CFB
4% West Virginia
4% Kansas st.
4% Syracuse/Notre Dame Under 51.5
4% Michigan st. +24
4% UCLA +3.5Comment
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OSKEIM SPORTS
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-- - Game: (411) Texas A&M at (412) Auburn
Date/Time: Dec 5 2020 12:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Auburn +7.0 (-115)
My math model only favors Texas A&M by 3.47 points in this game and the Tigers are 12-4 ATS in their last sixteen home games, 10-3 ATS in their last thirteen games as home underdogs and 6-1 ATS in their previous seven December affairs. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series, while the Aggies are 1-4 ATS in the previous five clashes with Auburn.
Texas A&M is coming off a 20-7 win over LSU in which quarterback Kellen Mond completed just 11-of-34 passes for 105 yards. Moreover, LSU's defensive front seven created havoc on 20% of the Aggies' offensive snaps and I expect Auburn defensive coordinator Kevin Steele to implement a similar game plan to disrupt Texas A&M's attack. One has to question whether the Aggies' three-week layoff prior to facing LSU adversely affected Jimbo Fisher's squad and whether that rust could carry over to Saturday's game inside Jordan-Hare.
Auburn's defense has been 0.3 yards per play better than average this season (5.7 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yards per play against a mediocre stop unit), which matches up well against a Texas A&M attack that has been 0.3 yards per play better than average. The Tigers' red zone defense has been phenomenal (74.07%; 18th in nation) and should have success frustrating a slightly above-average Texas A&M red zone offense that is ranked 45th in the country (85.71%).
Auburn is a dramatically different team at home, especially on the offensive side of the ball. The Tigers are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home this season where they are averaging 34.3 points and 415 total yards per game at 6.4 yards per play and 12.1 yards per point. Quarterback Bo Nix is 68-of-105 (64.8%) for 940 yards at 9.0 yards per play with 8 touchdowns (just 1 interception) at home compared to completing just 57.1% of his passes for 6.1 yards per play with a 3-3 TD-INT ratio on the road.
Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn is 8-3 ATS as a home underdog in his coaching career, including 6-1 SU and ATS when his team is .600 or greater on the season. Since 2016, Auburn has been a home underdog six times; the Tigers are 5-1 ATS in those contests and won four of them outright. Finally, Jimbo Fisher is 4-11-1 ATS on the road versus opponents off a SU and ATS loss, including 1-9 ATS when his team owns a .801 or greater record. Grab the live home underdog and invest with confidence.
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Big Al High noon
The Ohio State BuckeyesComment
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Maddux
10 363 Bowling Green +3
10 431 Tulsa -10.5
10 380 Utah -10 -115
10 413 Texas/Kansas State under 53
10 414 Kansas State +10
10 360 Penn State/Rutgers under 57.5
10 389 Fresno State/Nevada over 57.5
10 395 West Virginia +7 -115
10 357 Nebraska/Purdue over 61.5
10 392 California +10
10 435 UL Monroe/Arkansas State over 69Comment
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