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Re: Super Bowl Sunday
Chuck Luck
4* AZ +7
4* Over 46.5
2* AZ ML
Chuck Luck
4* AZ +7
4* Over 46.5
2* AZ ML
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Re: Super Bowl Sunday
SPORTSNETWORK:
OVERALL ANALYSIS
If you believe in the adage that says defense wins championships, then you certainly believe that the Steelers will be standing alongside commissioner Roger Goodell on the championship platform on Sunday night. Pittsburgh has been consistently strong on that side of the football all season, and though Arizona has plenty of offensive weapons to challenge that unit, it's going to take a flawless performance from the Cardinals' attack in order to win this game. The Steelers aren't a great offensive football team, but have proved throughout these playoffs that they can make the big plays necessary to get on the scoreboard. Finally, there's something to be said for experience. The Steelers have simply been in many more of these big-game situations over the past half-decade or so than the Cardinals, who have the look of a team playing with house money.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Steelers 27, Cardinals 17Comment
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Re: Super Bowl Sunday
Phenom
Pittsburgh SteelersComment
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Re: Super Bowl Sunday
Steve Budin
SUNDAY'S PICK
50 DIME
PITTSBURGH
Note From Steve Budin:
50 DIME
PITTSBURGH
Note From Steve Budin:
Pittsburgh is between a 6 1/2 to 7 point favorite. In either case, buy down 1 full point. The logic here from a former bookmaker's perspective is that you will find more games ending on six than seven.
The key in this game is to shop around. The line dropped in Vegas to 6 1/2 at a few sportsbooks as early as Wednesday. Finding that price should be your goal.
If you have Pittsburgh -7, I suggest you buy down the 1 point to -6 so you get the win should Pittsburgh win by seven or a push with a win by six.
If you have Pittsburgh -6 1/2, I suggest you buy down the 1 point to -5 1/2 so you get the win should Pittsburg win by six.
In either case above, you are paying somewhere in the neighborhood of -135 for the purchase of that 1 full point.
If for some reason you get Pittsburgh -7 1/2 (which should not be the case since this price has dropped, not risen) even after shopping around, buy down the 1 point still to -6 1/2 so you get the win should Pittsburgh only prevail by a touchdown.
Take it from a former bookmaker and the guy who fathered the offshore sportsbook industry that too many gamblers and handicappers needlessly buy half points on all types of numbers. In this case, however, it's a wise investment strategy, using the power of money - our bulging bankroll - against the bookmaker.
Why not buy a little extra insurance at a few cents on the dollar to protect your investment? As CEO of a multi-million dollar company I can tell you it's the right move, just like I knew it was the right move when as a bookmaker I saw smart players doing the same thing when the opportunity presented itself.Comment
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Re: Super Bowl Sunday
Bob Balfe
NFL Football
Arizona/Pittsburgh Under 46.5
Both teams are really going to struggle running the football in this game. Pittsburgh has a great defense, but Arizona also has a defense who can stop the run and their secondary has players who are big and can cover well. If both teams do not have balance I do not see this being a high scoring game. This is not a football game, this is a bigtime event which means teams take a while to settle in. Pittsburgh does not have the offensive firepower to score a ton of points. Arizona does have the ability to score quick, but they pride themselves on long drives which is great for an under play. I could not pick a side in this game. On paper I do like the Cardinals. They have a better offense then the Steelers, but they are not going to move the ball at will against this defense. I would not be shocked to see Pittsburgh cover in the same way as they did against the Ravens two weeks ago. The key to this game is Steelers Defensive Coordinator Dick Lebow who is as good as anyone ever to walk this earth in stopping the oppositions offense. Another key is Arizona Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt who was the Steelers Offensive Coordinator in Super Bowl XL. Whisenhunt knows the Steelers offense well and can give his defense valuable information on how to defend them. Also, I do not see Arizona connecting on a lot of trick plays in this game, the Steelers defense is just too good and will be ready for it. This reminds me a lot of the Bucs/Raiders Super Bowl a few years ago except both staffs really know each other well. This might be the first Super Bowl in a while that is actually won on coaching and not talent. Look for a hard hitting game with it staying under the total.Comment
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Re: Super Bowl Sunday
ATS Financial Club pick is out for the Super Bowl The pick is:
OVER 46 1/2Comment
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Re: Super Bowl Sunday
Norm Hitzges
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Here is Norm Hitzges' Super Bowl writeup:
The Super Bowl
Trends, Analysis and Facts
Here's a gathering of various historical trends and angles applying to the Super Bowl.
The last 13 Super Bowls in which the teams were NOT equally seeded (e.g.--Pitt is the AFC's #2 seed facing Arizona the #4 NFC seed) the lower seed has posted a 10-1-2 ATS mark. This favors Arizona.
Teams entering a Super Bowl off a SU upset victory (like Arizona) are 11-6-1 ATS.
Zona's won 4 straight games. The last time they had a 5-game win streak was 1972!!
QB Ben Foethlisberger's 7-2 SU and ATS in the playoffs for Pittsburgh. He's also 29-13 ATS in his career as a favorite of 4 or more points (Wow!)
This decade AFC teams favored by 6 or more points vs NFC teams with a greater than 40% win percentage are 33-15-1 ATS.
In the last 13 Super Bowls the favorete's gone 4-7-2 ATS.
If 'Zona can hold Pitt under 30 points this beauty kicks in: The last 15 favorites to score less than 30 points are 2-12-1 ATS.
The last 25 teams who scored 20 or less points in the Super Bowl are 1-24 SU and 4-20-1 ATS. The lone winners? Last season's Giants in their 17-14 upset victory.
Exactly half of the 42 Super Bowls played have been decided by 14 points or more. In 11 other games the victory margin was between 7 and 13 points.
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The Game Itself
Pittsburgh (-7) vs Arizona Total: 46.5
There are some truly deceiving numbers in the matchups in Super Bowl XLIII.
It looks like a mediocre Steelers offense (#22 in the league) vs a mediocre Arizona defense (#19 in the NFL)
Then there's 'Zona's marvelous offense (#4) vs the #1 rated Pitt defense.
But let's look closer:
1) Pitt's supposedly shaky offense full season rating can be so deceiving. These Steelers have averaged a whopping 28.5 ppg their last 8 games and that includes meetings with some of the league's best defenses. Pitt's the #1 rated scoring "D" in the league. After them in the defensive ratings came: Tennessee, Baltimore, Philly, and the Giants. 9 of Pitt's 18 games have been against the other seven best defenses in the league. In addition, the Steelers have played several games in shaky weather conditions.
2) Arizona's apparently porous defense. Be very careful. this unit has come together to force 12 turnovers in three playoff games. They've faced Atlanta's Michael Turner, Carolina's DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart and Philly's Brian Westbrook in the playoffs and those terrific runners combined did not total 200 yards rushing. The Cards defense smothered Carolina star receiver Steve Smith holding him to a pair of harmless catches. Forget the season rankings. This Cards "D: has performed far better than its regular season ranking.
The other half of the matcup features real numbers. The Arizona offense and the Pitt defense deserve the respect their numbers suggest. Pitt, in fact allowed only one team to gain over 290 yards in aa game this year (Tennessee got 373).
Offensively Arizona's running game has perked up in the playoffs. Pitt ground game has benefitted from the return to health of Willie Parker. Both offenses should be ready to attack--especially Arizona.
I believe these Cards know they cannot sit back and simply slug it out with Pitt. They must go right after the Steelers. Warner's been terrific in the two Super Bowls he's played in and I don't feel will be rattled by the Steelers. Zona simply can't figure it will win this game playing conservatively. I look for them to go long early and often.
This, for me, sets up a higher scoring game. Pitt really hasn't faced a passing attack with this kind of potency and Pitt's offense is, as detailed, significantly better than it appears.
DOUBLE PLAY: TAKE PITT/ARIZONA OVER THE TOTAL
SINGLE PLAY: TAKE ARIZONA PLUS THE POINTSComment
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Re: Super Bowl Sunday
ATS Lock Club
5 Cardinals +7 (buy half point if you can)Comment
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Re: Super Bowl Sunday
January 31 2009
frank patron special weekend offer
second ever 50000 unit nfl lock
pittsburgh steelers -6.5Comment
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Re: Super Bowl Sunday
Rainman
5* Pitt
2* Over
Props (says play 1/4 your normal bet)
National Anthem Over
Team Punt First Arizona
Special Team or Defensive Score YES
Longest Punt Return - PITT
Arizona under 20 points
Arizona convert a 4th down- YES
1st Player to Score- Parker, Fitzgerald, Breston, Miller, WardComment
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Re: Super Bowl Sunday
EXPERT: Lee Kostroski
REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON 4* Pittsburgh (-) vs. Arizona, 6:20 PM EST on Sunday, February 1st
It all comes down to this? The Arizona Cardinals are in the Super Bowl?! Sure they have had a nice run the last three weeks to get here, but they DO NOT stand a chance against the Steelers. Pittsburgh has played 13 games this year (including playoffs) against teams with a .500 record or better. They are much more battle tested than the Cardinals and have the NFL’s best defense. They have also used this extra week off to heal up after their very physical match-up with the Ravens in the conference championship. Defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is a mastermind when it comes to scheming against opposing offenses and he won’t allow Arizona to jump out to an early lead, as the Cardinals have throughout the playoffs. With a far superior defense and an opportunistic offense, the Pittsburgh Steelers will be crowned the NFL Champions on February 1st.
Arizona has been playing very well since their 7-47 loss to New England on Dec. 21st. The Cardinals are averaging 32 points and 386 yards per game in their last 4 games. In the playoffs alone, they have 95 total points in just 3 games. They have been jumping to early leads as 65 of their 95 playoff points have come in the first half. Arizona has been playing the role as the underdog to perfection, as NO ONE expected them to make it this far, and they have benefited from playing two playoff games at home and also a road game in which Carolina committed 6 turnovers. We do not see Pittsburgh taking Arizona lightly, committing silly turnovers, or allowing Arizona to jump to an early lead.
We mentioned before how Pittsburgh has the best defense in the NFL, ranking 1st in passing defense, scoring defense, and total defense, and 2nd in rushing defense. Since their Nov. 9th loss to the Colts, the Steelers pass defense allows just 51% completions for 168 yards per game, allowing just 6 touchdowns and forcing 16 interceptions. Their great pass defense is correlated with their pass rush, as they were 2nd in the NFL during the regular season with 51 sacks. Arizona QB Kurt Warner has had a great post-season so far, but he hasn’t seen a defense like Pittsburgh’s.
This makes the Cardinals season just getting to this point, as they didn’t expect to be here at all. The Steelers aren’t satisfied with just ‘being here,’ they are expecting to walk away with the Lombardi Trophy. They have more playoff experience and a better defense; going with the old cliché: Defense wins championships. Go with Pittsburgh.
Paid for and confirmed
BOL - YakamashiiComment
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Re: Super Bowl Sunday
ATS Sports Club
February 1, 2009
NFL Winners:
Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5
Steelers/Cardinals over 46
Soccer Back of the Net Winners:
French Ligue 1
Marseille vs. Sochaux over 2
Dutch Eredivisie
NEC Nijmegen vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam over 2.5
Dutch Eredivisie
Sparta Rotterdam vs. AZ Alkmaar over 2.5
I'll have the rest of the card in the morning.Comment
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