Thursday 12/10/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

849N DAKOTA -850 S DAKOTA
N DAKOTA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons.

849N DAKOTA -850 S DAKOTA
Paul Sather is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% (Coach of N DAKOTA)

851MERCER -852 VMI
VMI is 6-0 ATS (6 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons.

853PORTLAND -854 OREGON ST
PORTLAND is 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1997.

855MISSOURI-KC -856 MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=18 free throws/game over the last 2 seasons.

857UC-RIVERSIDE -858 N ARIZONA
UC-RIVERSIDE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games after having won 2 of their last 3 games in the last 3 seasons.

859LONG BEACH ST -860 SAN FRANCISCO
LONG BEACH ST is 39-14 ATS (23.6 Units) in road games after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games since 1997.

861N DAKOTA ST -862 S DAKOTA ST
S DAKOTA ST is 13-5 ATS (7.5 Units) after 2 straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons.

863SAN DIEGO ST -864 ARIZONA ST
SAN DIEGO ST is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.

1601NEW ORLEANS -1602 JACKSONVILLE
JACKSONVILLE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games vs. losing teams over the last 2 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Thursday, December 10

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N DAKOTA (0 - 3) vs. S DAKOTA (0 - 3) - 12/10/2020, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N DAKOTA is 11-21 ATS (-12.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
N DAKOTA is 11-21 ATS (-12.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
S DAKOTA is 4-1 against the spread versus N DAKOTA over the last 3 seasons
S DAKOTA is 4-1 straight up against N DAKOTA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MERCER (5 - 0) at VMI (3 - 2) - 12/10/2020, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MERCER is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons.
MERCER is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after scoring 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MERCER is 3-1 against the spread versus VMI over the last 3 seasons
MERCER is 3-1 straight up against VMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PORTLAND (3 - 1) at OREGON ST (2 - 2) - 12/10/2020, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MISSOURI-KC (2 - 2) at MINNESOTA (5 - 0) - 12/10/2020, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 41-63 ATS (-28.3 Units) after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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UC-RIVERSIDE (2 - 1) at N ARIZONA (0 - 1) - 12/10/2020, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
N ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus UC-RIVERSIDE over the last 3 seasons
N ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against UC-RIVERSIDE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LONG BEACH ST (1 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 2) - 12/10/2020, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 108-143 ATS (-49.3 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 105-142 ATS (-51.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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N DAKOTA ST (0 - 4) vs. S DAKOTA ST (3 - 2) - 12/10/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
S DAKOTA ST is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
S DAKOTA ST is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
S DAKOTA ST is 119-80 ATS (+31.0 Units) as a favorite since 1997.
S DAKOTA ST is 116-79 ATS (+29.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1997.
S DAKOTA ST is 80-52 ATS (+22.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.
S DAKOTA ST is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) versus poor offensive teams - scoring <=64 points/game since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
S DAKOTA ST is 3-1 against the spread versus N DAKOTA ST over the last 3 seasons
S DAKOTA ST is 3-1 straight up against N DAKOTA ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO ST (4 - 0) at ARIZONA ST (3 - 1) - 12/10/2020, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO ST is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO ST is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO ST is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO ST is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO ST is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ORLEANS (1 - 3) at JACKSONVILLE (3 - 2) - 12/10/2020, 5:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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N FLORIDA (0 - 6) at E CAROLINA (4 - 0) - 12/10/2020, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N FLORIDA is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
N FLORIDA is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
N FLORIDA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons.
N FLORIDA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
N FLORIDA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
N FLORIDA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a road game where the total is 145 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TROY (1 - 3) at N ALABAMA (2 - 0) - 12/10/2020, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TROY is 22-37 ATS (-18.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TROY is 22-37 ATS (-18.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
N ALABAMA is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TROY is 2-0 against the spread versus N ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
TROY is 2-0 straight up against N ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSON ST (0 - 1) at OLE MISS (0 - 0) - 12/10/2020, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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UTRGV (3 - 2) at TEXAS A&M CC (1 - 3) - 12/10/2020, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS A&M CC is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) revenging a road loss vs opponent since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS A&M CC is 3-2 against the spread versus UTRGV over the last 3 seasons
UTRGV is 3-2 straight up against TEXAS A&M CC over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GARDNER WEBB (0 - 0) at W KENTUCKY (3 - 2) - 12/10/2020, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GARDNER WEBB is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB

Thursday, December 10

North Dakota @ South Dakota
North Dakota (0-3)
— 2 starters back from LY’s 15-18 team
— picked 4th in Summit by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #252 by KenPom
— UND is 0-3, including a 74-73 loss to D-I newcomer Dixie State.
— Fighting Hawks are turning ball over 23.7% of time.
— UND doesn’t play any seniors; they lost last game by only 9 at Minnesota.

South Dakota (0-3)
— 1 starter back from LY’s 20-12 team
— picked 2nd in Summit by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #221 by KenPom
— Coyotes are 0-3, but all three foes are ranked in top 130
— South Dakota is 12-60 (20%) on arc so far.
— Coyotes haven’t played in nine days.

— South Dakota won four of last five series games, but lost to UND in Summit tourney LY.

Mercer @ VMI
Mercer (5-0)
— 3 starters back from LY’s 17-15 team
— picked 6th in SoCon by Blue Ribbon.
— ranked #144 by KenPom
— Mercer has three non-D-I wins; they also beat Ga Tech, Georgia State.
— Bears are shooting 45.1% on the arc (#9)
— Mercer starts two juniors, two seniors.

VMI (3-2)
— 3 starters back from LY’s 9-24 team
— picked 9th in SoCon by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #251 by KenPom
— Keydets’ losses are both to top 60 teams.
— VMI has turned ball over 23.7% of time.
— VMI’s only D-I win was by 13 over Longwood.

— Mercer beat VMI twice LY, by 11-3 points.

Portland @ Oregon State
Portland (3-1)
— 2 starters back from LY’s 9-22 team
— picked last in WCC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #281 by KenPom
— Pilots split couple D-I games, beating Portland State by 13.
— Portland is experience team #55, starting 2 seniors, 3 juniors.
— This is Portland’s first road game.

Oregon State (2-2)
— 3 starters back from LY’s 18-13 team
— picked last in Pac-12 by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #122 by KenPom
— Beavers lost last two games by total of 7 points)
— Oregon State is shooting only 40.7% inside arc (#272)
— OSU is experience team #51, starting 3 seniors, 2 juniors.

UMKC @ Minnesota
UMKC (2-2)
— 4 starters back from LY’s 16-14 team
— picked 7th in Summit by KenPom
— ranked #283 by KenPom
— UMKC whipped two NAIA stiffs, then scored 62 ppg in two D-I losses.
— Kangaroos haven’t played for 11 days.
— UMKC is turning ball over 25.5% of time.

Minnesota (5-0)
— 2 starters back from LY’s 15-16 team
— picked 7th in Big 14 by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #48 by KenPom
— Gophers played three guys 36:00+ in Tuesday’s OT win over BC.
— Minnesota beat North Dakota of Summit League by 9.
— Gophers are experience team #98, starting 4 juniors, 1 senior.

Cal-Riverside @ Northern Arizona
Cal-Riverside (2-1)
— 4 starters back from LY’s 17-15 team
— picked 3rd in Big West by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #166 by KenPom
— Riverside beat Washington, Denver; lost by 6 at Pacific.
— Highlanders are playing pace #321, very slow.
— Riverside is giving up 57 ppg thru three games.

Northern Arizona (0-1)
— 2 starters back from LY’s 10-10 team
— picked 9th in Big Sky by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #313 by KenPom
— Lumberjacks lost opener 96-53 at Arizona Monday.
— NAU starts 4 juniors and a soph.
— Lumberjacks won 63-56 at Riverside last year.

Long Beach State @ San Francisco
Long Beach State (1-1)
— 4 starters back from LY’s 11-21 team
— picked 6th in Big West by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #238 by KenPom
— 49ers lost by 24 at LMU, beat Seattle by 5.
— Long Beach is playing #27 pace in country, very fast.
— 49ers start three juniors, two seniors.

San Francisco (4-2)
— 2 starters back from LY’s 22-12 team
— picked 3rd n WCC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #75 by KenPom
— Dons beat Virginia, lost to Mass-Lowell; go figure.
— USF is experience team #73; they start 2 juniors, 2 seniors.
— This is USF’s first home game.

North Dakota State @ South Dakota State
North Dakota State (0-4)
— 2 starters back from LY’s 25-8 team
— picked 3rd in Summit by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #180 by KenPom
— Bison has played schedule #22; they lost by 4 at Kansas.
— Bison was outscored 7-0 over final 3:57 in Lawrence Saturday.
— ND State is shooting 37.3% inside arc, 27.8% on arc.

South Dakota State (3-2)
— 5 starters back from LY’s 22-10 team
— picked 1st in Summit by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #79 by KenPom
— Jackrabbits are 3-2 vs schedule #34, losing to West Va, Saint Mary’s.
— South Dakota State is making 45.9% of its 3’s (#7)
— Jackrabbits are #7 team in minutes continuity.

— South Dakota State won six of last seven series games.

San Diego State @ Arizona State
San Diego State (4-0)
— 2 starters back from LY’s 30-2 team
— picked 1st in MW by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #33 by KenPom
— San Diego State has quality wins, over UCLA/Pepperdine.
— Aztecs are forcing turnovers 27.8% of the time.
— This is the first road game for the Aztecs.

Arizona State (3-1)
— 2 starters back from LY’s 20-11 team
— picked 3rd in Pac-12 by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #28 by KenPom
— ASU beat Rhode Island/Cal, lost by 9 to Villanova.
— Sun Devils are forcing turnovers 23.3% of time (#53)
— ASU hasn’t played in a week.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB

Thursday, December 10

Trend Report

Purdue Calumet @ Ohio
Purdue Calumet
No trends to report
Ohio
Ohio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Ohio is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home

Mercyhurst @ Buffalo
Mercyhurst
No trends to report
Buffalo
Buffalo is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 9 games at home

North Florida @ East Carolina
North Florida
No trends to report
East Carolina
East Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

Transylvania @ Morehead State
Transylvania
No trends to report
Morehead State
Morehead State is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games at home

South Dakota @ North Dakota
South Dakota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of South Dakota's last 5 games when playing North Dakota
South Dakota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing North Dakota
North Dakota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of North Dakota's last 5 games when playing South Dakota
North Dakota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing South Dakota

Troy @ North Alabama
Troy
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Troy's last 7 games on the road
Troy is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
North Alabama
No trends to report

UNC Greensboro @ Coppin State
UNC Greensboro
UNC Greensboro is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
UNC Greensboro is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Coppin State
No trends to report

UTRGV @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
UTRGV
The total has gone OVER in 5 of UTRGV's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of UTRGV's last 5 games when playing Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
No trends to report

UMKC @ Minnesota
UMKC
No trends to report
Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Minnesota is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Portland @ Oregon State
Portland
Portland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Oregon State
Portland is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Oregon State
Oregon State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Oregon State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Portland

Jackson State @ Mississippi
Jackson State
No trends to report
Mississippi
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Mississippi's last 14 games at home
Mississippi is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home

UC Riverside @ Northern Arizona
UC Riverside
UC Riverside is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
UC Riverside is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Northern Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Northern Arizona's last 6 games at home
Northern Arizona is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

Gardner-Webb @ Western Kentucky
Gardner-Webb
No trends to report
Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Western Kentucky's last 5 games at home

Long Beach State @ San Francisco
Long Beach State
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Long Beach State's last 17 games on the road
Long Beach State is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
San Francisco
San Francisco is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games at home
San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

North Dakota State @ South Dakota State
North Dakota State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of North Dakota State's last 6 games when playing South Dakota State
North Dakota State is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing South Dakota State
South Dakota State
South Dakota State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing North Dakota State
South Dakota State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing North Dakota State

San Diego State @ Arizona State
San Diego State
San Diego State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Diego State is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Arizona State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona State's last 5 games at home
Arizona State is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Odds Week 14: Opening Lines, Sharp Money & Line Movement
Patrick Everson

Baker Mayfield and the Browns gave away almost all of a 38-7 lead against the Titans in Week 13, but held on for a 41-35 win. In Week 14, Cleveland opened as a 1-point home underdog to Baltimore.

NFL Week 13 won't wrap up until Tuesday night, but NFL Week 14 odds can't be stopped nor contained, with several games already seeing action. The bookend matchups are among the most noteworthy, with the New England Patriots meeting the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night, and the Cleveland Browns hosting the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night.

The SuperBook's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 14 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting. Covers will update this report with NFL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the week.

NFL Week 14 Odds

Patriots at Rams Odds
Opening line
Rams -5, Over/Under 45

Why the line moved
Los Angeles outgunned Arizona in Week 13, 38-28, while New England boatraced the L.A. Chargers 45-0 on the road. That made things a little more challenging for SuperBook oddsmakers.

"The Patriots destroyed the Chargers today, and we opened the Patriots a 5-point underdog vs. the Rams, which was a little lower than our look-ahead line," Murray said. "We took money on the Rams right away and bumped the line up to Rams -6. It should be a pretty-good-handle Thursday game. We will take money both ways."

There was no movement Sunday night on the total of 45.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 14

Thursday, December 10

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NEW ENGLAND (6 - 6) at LA RAMS (8 - 4) - 12/10/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 47-25 ATS (+19.5 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 276-214 ATS (+40.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 276-214 ATS (+40.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 91-51 ATS (+34.9 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 132-101 ATS (+20.9 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 132-101 ATS (+20.9 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 204-156 ATS (+32.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 136-94 ATS (+32.6 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 69-46 ATS (+18.4 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 132-94 ATS (+28.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 93-60 ATS (+27.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 65-42 ATS (+18.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
LA RAMS are 24-42 ATS (-22.2 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 14

Trend Report

Thursday, December 10

New England @ LA Rams
New England
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
New England is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing LA Rams
LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 5 games at home
LA Rams is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 14

Thursday’s game
New England (6-6) @ Rams (8-4)
— New England won four of its last five games.
— Underdogs covered last eight Patriot games.
— New England trailed at halftime in seven of its last nine games.
— NE played Chargers in LA Sunday, stayed in town for this game.
— Patriots are 2-4 SU/ATS on road this season, beating Jets/Chargers.
— Under is 7-2 in their last nine games.

— Rams won three of their last four games.
— LA has outscored opponents 157-82 in second half of games.
— Rams won four of five home games SU (3-2 ATS)
— Seven of LA’s last nine games stayed under the total.
— Rams are 10-8-1 ATS in last 19 games as a home favorite, 2-2 TY.
— Rams had 14 takeaways in last six games; had only six in first six games.

— New England won last six series games (two Super Bowls)
— Patriots are 3-2 against Rams in St Louis/Anaheim/LA.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 14
Bruce Marshall

Week 14 of the NFL season kicks off on Thanksgiving, and we've identified betting trends and angles for all the matchups.

We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Thursday, Dec. 10

NEW ENGLAND at L.A. RAMS
Belichick has covered last four as a dog in 2020, now 18-5 as dog since 2010.
Belichick also “under” 9-4 last 13 since late 2019.
Rams on 7-2 “under” run.

Tech Edge: “Under” and Patriots, based on “totals” and team trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Patriots vs. Rams Week 14 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

Ninety-seven weeks is a long time to stew about anything, but that's precisely how long it's been since Rams HC Sean McVay and his QB Jared Goff were thoroughly flustered by Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots in Super Bowl 53.

There is no doubt that McVay and Goff have had days in the 680 they've had between Patriots games thinking about what could have been on that February day, but they've got a shot at some kind of redemption this week as they host the Patriots.

Belichick's game plan in that Super Bowl was masterful, and he understands that he probably can't consistently rely on going back to that well in this meeting and expect the same results. Tossing some curveballs to keep young QB's guessing has been the backbone of Belichick and New England's success over the years when facing younger QB's.

But Goff and the Rams have almost had two full NFL seasons under their belt since then, and things are quite different for the Patriots this time around as well.

So in this unique travel spot where the visiting Patriots haven't had to travel at all on a short week – they've stayed in L.A. after beating the Chargers 45-0 on Sunday – the betting markets have already shown their hand in supporting New England against the number.

Not having to travel and off a 45-point win is about as positive as a scenario as it gets for a road team on TNF, so the move from New England opening at +6/6.5 to +4.5/5 currently is hard to ignore.

But should it still be followed? Faded? Or ignored?

Week 14 Matchup: AFC vs. NFC
Venue: SoFi Stadium
Location: Los Angeles, California
Date: Thursday, Dec. 10, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: FOX/NFL Network

The Rams look for their fifth home win of the season as they host the Patriots. (AP)

Patriots-Rams Betting Odds

Spread: Los Angeles -5
Money-Line: Rams -240, Patriots +205
Total: 44.5

2020 Betting Stats

New England

Overall: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS, 4-8 O/U
Road: 2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS, 3-3 O/U
Offense PPG: 22.8 (Rank 23)
Defense PPG: 21.3 (Rank 7)
Offense YPG: 342.3 (Rank 22)
Defense YPG: 344.6 (Rank 12)

Los Angeles

Overall: 8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS, 4-8 O/U
Home: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 0-5 O/U
Offense PPG: 25.1 (Rank 17)
Defense PPG: 20.3 (Rank 5)
Offense YPG: 395.3 (Rank 3)
Defense YPG: 291.3 (Rank 2)

Handicapping the Total

The interesting thing about the Patriots blowout win over the Chargers on Sunday is the fact that it was really handed to them on a silver platter by the Los Angeles special teams. Fourteen of those 45 points came directly off special teams plays – 70-yard punt return, blocked FG try returned for a TD – well at least one other New England score was set up after a long punt return as well. Chances are that's not going to happen again for New England this week.

But the favorable spot of not having to travel, playing at the same stadium, etc. has to be considered beneficial for the Patriots regardless, and it is something I do think works in the favor of New England offense for this game.

For all of the talented names the Rams have on defense, they've still allowed 25.14 points per game against anyone in the NFL not named Chicago or residing in the NFC East. Only one of those seven foes for the Rams were held below 23 points, and the other two AFC East teams L.A. has faced this year (Buffalo, Miami) both beat LA and put up an average of 31.5 points in doing so.

The counterpoint there is that both those losses to AFC teams came on the road for the Rams, and at home they've been a dead 'under' team, going 0-5 O/U this season with an average total score of 35.8 points per game, and having not one of those contests finish with more than 43 total points; below this current number.

But thanks to the uniqueness of the no travel spot for the Patriots, none of the minute advantages home teams can even enjoy this season – possible quick body clock adjustment to travelling through time zones, sight lines and familiarity with stadium – are not existent either with New England being where they are for the better part of a week now.

That doesn't particularly lend itself to an 'under' look in my opinion, especially when Patriots road games this year have averaged 49.16 points per game in “normal” road situations for New England.

On the flip side, simply from a competitor standpoint, you know that McVay and Goff have to be excited to get another crack at Belichick and his defense. In various media sessions since that Super Bowl loss, McVay has discussed the fact that he was severely outcoached that day.

It likely hasn't been an every day, or every week thing in the 97 weeks that have passed between meetings, you can't convince me that McVay hasn't spent ample time in that span coming up with theories and ideas on what will work against Belichick in the next go around.

The good news for McVay and the Rams there is basically two-fold. One, it can't really go much worse than the three points they put up in the Super Bowl, but more importantly, the 2020 version of the New England Patriots defense is nowhere near as good as the 2018 version was.

Belichick may already have concepts he knows will work against McVay and the Rams tendencies, but when he doesn't have the talent that he used to in executing those concepts, things can go sideways in a hurry.

McVay has long been praised for his offensive acumen in this league, and the fact that he runs so many different plays and looks from the same base formation sets can be very problematic for opposing defenses as well. He doesn't have to worry about giving touches to a banged up RB like Todd Gurley was in that Super Bowl, and the Rams also don't have to worry about CB Stephon Gilmore locking down things in the passing game after his INT in that Super Bowl was a huge game changer. All are pluses for this Rams offense putting up points too.

Finally, I can't ignore the market read either on this total, as there has been plenty of 'under' support as well for this game. Yet, even with the betting percentages at VegasInsider.com currently showing 75%+ support for the low side of this total, it's barely budged since opening. That's always telling regardless of the specific scenarios for a given game, and if the Patriots bettors believe this is such an advantageous spot for New England sans travel, correlating with the 'under' is a hard concept for me to agree with.

Yes, the Super Bowl tape speaks plenty about Belichick's understanding of how to slow down a McVay-led offense, but can you trust New England's defense to execute at similar level despite not nearly being as good?

Or can you trust New England's offense not to put up 25+ themselves in such an advantageous travel spot? I've got a tough time answering “yes” to either of those questions, especially with how many points this Rams defense has allowed on a weekly basis against average or better teams.

Throw in the idea that McVay's made no secret about how he's kept himself up at night at various times through these past 97 weeks thinking about what he could have done differently in that Super Bowl against New England, and it's taking the high side of this total that makes the most sense.

Head-to-Head History

Feb. 3, 2019 - New England 13 vs. L.A. Rams 3, Patriots -2, Under 55.5
Dec. 4, 2016 - New England 26 vs. L.A. Rams 10, Patriots -13, Under 44.5
Oct. 28, 2012 - New England 45 at L.A. Rams 7, Patriots -7.5, Over 46

Handicapping the Side

The uniqueness of a no travel TNF game on the road for New England was enough off the bat for me to not look to get heavily involved in either side no matter what other supporting evidence popped up.

Earlier in the week I discussed how good it's been fading teams off a 40+ point outburst, which would make the Rams the play here, but I do believe you've got to respect that early move towards the Patriots as well.

As someone who does prefer to have some historical concept information to rely on for any play, this no travel road game on a short week is something that's put a monkey wrench into any strong thoughts on the side either way.

New England needs every SU victory they can get right now to have any shot at hanging around in the AFC playoff race, while the Rams are fighting tooth and nail for a NFC West crown.

And for as much as I may or may not believe McVay has obsessed over getting another crack at Belichick after Super Bowl 53, he'll be just as content after this game with a four-point win as he would with one by seven or more.

If the spread climbs back up to +6 or higher range (highly unlikely), I'd probably grab those points with New England if forced to make a choice, simply because if the thought process is McVay's spent nights dreaming up schemes that will work against Belichick, the Patriots' coach been around long enough to get to feasible counters quick enough to at least keep this game tight.

But this game landing right around the range of where it opened and where it currently sits would not be surprising at all, and why force that kind of sweat on yourself. Teasing New England up and through +7 and +10 makes quite a bit of sense too for those that have other teaser legs in mind this week.

Key Injuries

New England

QB Cam Newton: Abdominal - Questionable
WR Matthew Slater: Knee - Questionable
G Shaq Mason: Calf - Questionable
CB Jonathan Jones: Neck - Questionable
RB J.J. Taylor: Quadricep - Questionable
FB Jakob Johnson: Knee - Questionable
LB Ja’Whaun Bentley: Groin - Questionable
DL Adam Butler Shoulder - Questionable
DL Byron Cowart Back - Questionable
DB Kyle Dugger Toe - Questionable
K Nick Folk Back - Questionable
DL Lawrence Guy Shoulder - Questionable
TE Ryan Izzo Various - Questionable
CB J.C. Jackson Hip, Knee - Questionable

Los Angeles

K Matt Gay: Shoulder - Questionable
RB Cam Akers: Shoulder - Probable
DL Michael Brockers: Neck - Probable

2020 Thursday Night Football (TNF) Betting Results

Home-Away: 5-5 SU, 3-7 ATS
Favorites-Underdogs: 6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS
Over-Under: 5-5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

Dec 10 '20, 8:00 PM in 21m
NCAA-B | UMKC vs Minnesota
Play on: UMKC +19 -106 at BMaker

My free play is on UMKC at 8:00 ET.
Minnesota has opened 5-0 after an 85-80 OT win Tuesday over Boston College. The Golden Gophers look to improve to 6-0 with a Thursday night home game against Missouri-Kansas City. Billy Donlon spent six seasons at Wright St and went 109-94 overall, although he did have three, 20-win seasons. That included a 22-win season in 2015-16, although he was fired at the end of that year. He spent one year as an assistant at Michigan and two years as an assistant at Northwestern, before being hired as head coach at UMKC in 2019. The Kangaroos were 16-14 last season but return four starters. Richard Pitino is in his eighth season at Minnesota. He led the Gophers to the NIT championship in his first season (2013-14) but over the last six seasons, Minnesota has made just two NCAA appearances (2017 and 2019), while going a combined 56-71 (.441) over the other four.
UMKC opened with two blowout wins against non-Division I competition, including scoring 138 points against Division III Greenville (Ill.). Its two losses have come against Southeast Missouri State and Kansas State. The 'Roos are led by a trio of double digit scorers, guard McKissic (15.3 & 3.7 APG), 6-4 swingman Nesbitt (13.0-7.8-3.8) and 6-8 sophomore Allick (14.5 & 4.3). Nesbitt seems fully recovered from a tibia injury last season, leading the team in the early going in both rebounding and assists.
Minnesota's "close call" with Boston College led head coach Pitino to say, "We have to keep learning and growing. We have six new players, and we have guys playing positions they aren't used to ... so to be able to learn from winning is huge." He's got no such concerns regarding PG Marcus Carr, who is averaging 25.6-4.4-6.0. The 6-6 Both Gach (a Utah transfer), is averaging 15.6 points and 6.4 rebounds. plus 7-0 junior Robbins (9.6 & 7.4) and 6-8 senior Johnson (6.8 & 5.2) have been steady in the frontcourt.
This game could be easily overlooked by Minnesota, coming off its win in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge and its conference opener on Dec 15 at preseason Big Ten-favorite No. 6 Illinois (fresh off a win at Duke. Minnesota covered its season opener but is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four wins. UMKC was competitive in a 62-58 loss at Kansas St so I'm taking the big points here.
Good luck...Larry

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

Dec 10 '20, 8:20 PM in 41m
NFL | Patriots vs Rams
Play on: UNDER 45 -110

When these teams met in the Super Bowl, the score was just 13-3. While several of the stars from that game have moved on, particularly on the NE side, both defenses remain very stingy. LA allows 20.3 ppg. NE allows 21.3. Belichick had this to say of the Rams: "They're obviously a very good defense. They're at the top of the league in almost every category. They're hard to move the ball against. They make you earn everything. They don't make many mistakes. There's no easy plays.'' Of course, Belichick's own defense "pitched a shutout" last week, blanking the Chargers completely. The Patriots have seen their last four games finish below the total. Meanwhile, all five LA "home" games have stayed beneath the number, all of them finishing below the important 44 mark. This one should also be relatively low-scoring. Consider the Under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee

Dec 10 '20, 9:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-B | North Dakota State vs South Dakota State
Play on: North Dakota State +9 -110 at Bovada

PICK - North Dakota State Bison +9
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 861
I'll take the big number here with the Bison on a neutral site against rival South Dakota State. North Dakota State comes into this game at 0-4, but that was to be expected given the schedule the Bison were dealt early. Their first four opponents have been Nevada, Nebraska, Creighton and Kansas.
What you have to look at is how competitive North Dakota State has been in some of those games. They only lost by 11 at Creighton and by just 4 in their last game at Kansas. The Jackrabbits are a really good squad. They already got 2 wins over Top 100 teams in Utah State and Iowa State. They also beat a decent Bradley team on the road i their last game.
Thing is, I feel like that's created the value here with an inflated number in this matchup. Bison have failed to cover just once in their last 7 games vs a team with a winning record and are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 as a neutral site dog. Give me North Dakota State +9!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Martin

Dec 10 '20, 9:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-B | North Dakota State vs South Dakota State
Play on: North Dakota State +8½ -109 at Draft Kings

1 Unit FREE PLAY on North Dakota State +8.5
North Dakota State is 0-4 this season but has played a tough schedule with a home game against Nevada, and road games against Nebraska, Creighton and Kansas. And the Bison’s performances in their last two games leads me to believe they can cover this spread against rival South Dakota State. NDSU only lost 58-69 to Creighton as a 23.5-point dog and 61-65 to Kansas as a 24-point dog. Those are two of the best teams in the country. South Dakota State is loaded as well this year, but they aren’t as good as those two teams. And their last two wins have come by a combined 7 points. This has also been a closely-contested series in recent meetings. Each of the last three meetings were decided by 5 points or fewer. The Bison are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 neutral site games as underdogs. Give me North Dakota State.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dustin Hawkins

Dec 10 '20, 9:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-B | North Dakota State vs South Dakota State
Play on: North Dakota State +9 -115 at pinnacle

1 Dimer on North Dakota State +9 -115