Friday 12/11/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-11-2020, 05:24 AM

Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis

December 11, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight, Cal Expo has 11 races scheduled with the 0.20 Pick 4 starting in Race 8. The sequence has a 16% takeout and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 8

6-Allmyx'sliventexas (2-1)-This is a horse for this course as 7-year old has won 31 of 67 starts at CalX. Didn't do much at Haw but starts this meet with 2 straight pictures. Offers no value but can stay good for a while in Cali.
8-Ponda's Prospect (6-1)-If the pace is hot Plano should be rolling down the lane. Paced the back half in .56 in last and now makes 3rd start at CalX. Shorter field can improve chances.

Race 9

1-Fox Valley B Gump (5-1)-Gump tries and can take a picture versus this crew if gets a good trip. Doesnt seem to like to cut the mile so Cutting needs to stay close and come off a helmet.
4-Lukes Cowboy (6-1)-Can compete at this class, was Kennedy's choice and should stay close with this post draw. Looks like a trip a out candidate and could be sitting on a big try at a square price.
7-Stanhope (5-1)-Beat the $6k claimers with a nice brush in 2nd CalX start. HoP invader had never raced here before last 2 starts and best to respect for an encore.
10-Bet Together (4-1)-Came 2nd to $7k claimers in 1st start at CalX and finished the same last week versus $6k claimers. Has some gate speed to get a decent seat, Roland takes the lines and will need to provide a smooth trip.

Race 10

1-A And C Artist (5-1)-Hasn't raced since 9/9 but did qualify with a 56.2 back half here on 12/5. Using off that tune-up against a beatable field.
2-Native's Best Bet (9/5)-Might be overbet off a conservative start to finish 2nd. Did face better at Haw but since mid-August has been in poor form. This could be a spot to wake-up but need to use others as well.
10-Winonefordoug (8-1)-Comes off a decent try and was used a couple of times last week. That was only the 2nd start since 7/19. Post will help the price and has the gate speed for Roland to stay close, worth a swing versus this group.

Race 11

5-West Central Beach (6-1)-Kept coming in last and the trip wasn't great. Pace could be lively and can pass a few down the lane. Looks like a player if makes good use of this post draw.
9-Custards Dungeon (8-1)-Probably doesn't have much choice but to leave as the program chalk #10 should be doing the same. Should be there at the wire if lands in a good spot off the gate.
10-Villa For Rent (5/2)-Winner of last 5, including 3 at Aces and the last 2 coming at CalX. Hard to leave out after drawing off by over 4 lengths last week at this class. The issue is the start, isn't quick off the gate and should be bet hard.

0.20 Pick 4

6,8/1,4,7,10/1,2,10/5,9,10
Total Bet=$14.40

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-11-2020, 05:26 AM

Jeff Siegel's Gulfstream Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 12/11/20

December 11, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Gulfstream Park Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Friday, December 11, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 12:35 ET Grade: C+
Use: 5-Monte Ne; 7-Vicmar

Forecast: Modest older maiden-claiming turf sprinters kick off the Friday program in a race in which the known element doesn’t impress. Fresh face Vicmar debuts for a barn that has very good stats with first-time starters and the son of Revolutionary has the look of a live item with hot-riding P. Lopez taking the call. He’s bred for grass and has displayed a hint of speed in the a.m. so at 9/2 on the morning line he’s worth a play. Monte Ne, a $15,000 M. Maker claim at Churchill Downs last month, should be quick enough to be on or near the lead against this group and is the likely choice and one to beat. His one prior grass outing wasn’t much but he broke slowly, raced wide, and faced much tougher straight maidens so we won’t hold that effort against him.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:04 ET Grade: B+
Use: 2-Reservenotattained; 6-Wicksters Dream

Forecast: We’ll double the second race, a restricted (nw-2) $35,000 main track seller for older horses. Wicksters Dream, claimed in his last three starts, most recently for this price at Belmont Park in late October, appears properly spotted in his first start for new trainer R. Crichton (solid stats with this angle) and lands the cozy outside post that should project him into a soft, pace-stalking position. Fast enough on pure speed figures to beat this field, the son of New Year’s Day has a prior win over this main track and will offer wagering value at or near his morning line of 5/2. Reservenotattained is another with very good form over the Gulfstream Park main track – never off the board in five starts with two wins – and with the switch to P. Lopez should be a strong pace factor. The edge on top goes to Wicksters Dream but we’ll include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:33 ET Grade: C+
Use: 2-Makisupa; 4-Witch Moon

Forecast: Makisupa has a bit of a suspicious pattern but certainly can win this turf miler for maiden claiming older fillies and mares if he she returns as well as she left. After finishing a good second over the local lawn in a straight maiden miler last April, the English-bred filly was stopped on, and today returns for a $50,000 tag in what is just her third career start (you’d think that if she was well-liked, they would be protecting her). The D. Fawkes barn has solid stats with layoff runners and the work tab, though relatively brief, seems healthy, so we’ll put her on top while also including in our rolling exotics Witch Moon, a Woodbine shipper also dropping out of maiden special weight company. The G. Motion-trained daughter of Malibu Moon picks up L. Saez and is listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:03 ET Grade: C+
Use: 7-Think It Thru; 8-Skyfly

Forecast: Skyfly debuts showing only three workouts n her past performance chart but two of the drills were good, a :59 3/5 drill Nov. 23 (second fastest of 23) and a bullet gate drill Dec. 4 (1:02 flat, best of five). From a high-percentage outfit, from a cozy outside post, and with the stable’s “go-to” rider E. Jaramillo taking the call, the daughter of Jess’s Dream may prove best of a weak lot. Think It Thru is the most preferred from the experienced group, having finished a distant second in her debut at GPW in late October. However, her speed figure was 15 points lower than par for this level, which is the main reason why we’re opting for a newcomer on top. In a race that should be treated with caution, both should be included in your rolling exotics.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:36 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-Pleasecallmeback; 5-Battalion

Forecast: Battalion returns to the claiming ranks (but above his purchase price) in this $50,000 restricted (nw-2) affair on grass while switching to T. Gaffalione (31% with this barn) so we suspect the son of Tiznow will regain his winning form after a failed attempt in a race in the mud at GPW in late October. A strong, healthy work tab since raced should have this S. Joseph, Jr.-trained gelding primed and ready. Pleasecallmeback is a Woodbine invader for R. Attfield fresh from a good runner-up effort in an allowance race that produced a career top figure, one that may be good enough to beat this field. The Hard Spun gelding projects to enjoy an ideal ground-saving, second flight journey and then have his chance from the quarter pole to the wire.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:06 ET Grade: B
Use: 6-Uncaptured Soldier; 9-Dreaming Thousand

Forecast: Uncaptured Soldier, a fading sixth after some early trouble in his debut when facing tougher maiden $25,000 foes, drops for the money run while adding blinkers and switching to T. Gaffalione (32% with a massive ROI with this trainer) in this bottom-rung sprint for juveniles. A nice five furlong breeze at GPW since raced is a positive sign, so we’re expecting the J. Delgado-trained colt to step forward and handle this soft task. Dreaming Thousand, freshened since early October, ran well over this main track last summer while earning a speed figure three races back that certainly can win. However, his other five starts weren’t much, so he’s not one to trust. We’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics and then press with Uncaptured Soldier on top.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:36 ET Grade: C+
Use: 2-Jimmyssmokedcarrot; 4-Wicked Mercury; 5-Sunset Promise

Forecast: Sunset Promise shows up in a claimer for the first time in her second start off a layoff, and with a prior win over the course and speed figures that are good for the level the M. Maker-trained filly seems reasonably solid. She’ll be doing her best work late. Wicked Mercury graduated in her ninth career start when last seen in mid-September at Monmouth Park while earning a career top speed figure, one that makes her competitive in this affair. The concern is that she’s zero-for-five over the local lawn, so we’re not convinced she’s trustworthy. However, her good stalking style guarantees a clean trip, and if she runs back to her last race she’ll be in the battle. Jimmyssmokedcarrot won her debut over this course in maiden state-bred company rather stylishly (but with a modest number) in February when trained by C. Brown and then disappeared. She returns in a seller for new conditioner J. D’Angelo while wearing blinkers and picking up L. Saez, so at 5-1 on the morning line she’s worth consideration as a saver or a back-up.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:06 ET Grade: C+
Single: 1-Starship Blanca

Forecast: Starship Blanca just broke her maiden for a $12,500 tag and today surfaces in a conditioned (nw-2) $6,250 sprint for fillies and mares, an aggressive move on paper but not really that surprising considering this high-percentage outfit. The concern is that her win was accomplished over a sloppy track at GPW and that her previous four outings were all routing on grass. How will she sprint on dry land? We’ll find out in a race in which nothing else inspires. We’ll consider the daughter of He’s Had Enough a possible single in rolling exotic play – mostly by default – in a race that actually may better served being left alone.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:36 ET Grade: B+
Use: 3-Risk Manager; 4-Whatmakessammyrun; 5-Rarantino

Forecast: Risk Manager won his debut on grass at Keeneland at this one mile distance in mid-October and looked like a fairly decent prospect in the process, so we’re expecting this son of Lookin At Lucky to come right back in this competitive first-level allowance affair. The M. Maker-trained colt settled in the second flight before accelerating when asked to win going away, and T. Gaffalione, who was aboard that day, stays aboard. Tarantino invades from Southern California where he also was a debut winner before verifying that favorable impression by just missing by a nose in the Zuma Beach Stakes at Del Mar when trained by B. Baffert. He’s now with R. Brisset and will be the one to beat with a repeat of either one of his first two outings. Whatmakessammyrun, third in listed turf stakes at Aqueduct after breaking his maiden by almost nine lengths sprinting on grass at Belmont Park, is another major player with a decent amount of upside. We’ll include all three in rolling exotic play and then have extra tickets keying Risk Manager on top.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:06 ET Grade: X
Single: 6-Pay Any Price

Forecast: Professional race horse Pay Any Price, 10-years-old and still plying his trade, makes his first start since winning a $75,000 stakes sprint over this course and distance in early July and today shows up carrying a $25,000 tag in this allowance optional claimer. The layoff and the class drop are of concern, of course, but we doubt he’d be in the entries if he wasn’t reasonably okay. At 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, the son of Wildcat Heir - a winner of 16 races from 24 starts over the local lawn – is worth cheering for, if not wagering on.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-11-2020, 06:01 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #5

#1 Rock and Fellers	No surprise that the form tanked after leaving the Navarro barn, but he has also been in with better and has always done his best work on the front end. There's a chance he finds the top on the big drop, and that could give him a real chance at a square price.
#3 Top Me Off	Didn't do much for the former connections, but perhaps another change of scenery into the McMahon barn will wake him up. Spying trip gives him a chance?
#2 Proud Enough	Proved a good fit with the local company last time out when trying this level, and he caught a tough winner that day. His baseline effort keeps him in the mix here.
Race Summary	Rock and Fellers may never be getting back to anything close to his 2018 form in the now-disbanded Navarro barn, but this is a big class drop in a race where his speed might give him an advantage over some of the other logical players.

Laurel Park - Race #6

#1 Uno Tigress	Forward player steps up off the good first try with winners for the new barn, and she has some speed from the fence that may let her take it to these early.
#5 Bluefield	Should get a great trip tracking the top choice from the start, but she feels like the type who might get overbet with these.
#2 Dance and Dance	Might be a useful underneath player on the cutback, as she has run pretty well going 7f in the past, so she may be able to stay on late for a piece at a price.
Race Summary	Uno Tigress has some pace to use on the hike, and I'm not sure we've seen her best through just the three career starts. The 4/1 ML offering would seem more than fair.

Laurel Park - Race #8

#7 Benandjoe	He's probably in a bit tough while moving into open company, but the recent form is really good, and he handled a step into MD-bred allowance company last time out. If he doesn't take a step back today, he's intriguing at a price.
#8 Toy	Came right back with a first-level allowance win after rolling a maiden group two starts back, and he should be in line for a good trip near the top with these.
#2 Ace Nine Nine	Price player might be a tiny stretch on top, but the recent form is pretty solid, and he can finish from midpack for a piece.
Race Summary	Benandjoe steps up again, but he should get a good go of things near the top, and a double-digit price would be appealing enough to take a swing.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-11-2020, 06:02 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Freehold - Race #3

#6 LOOKING SANTASTIC	Willing pursuit of winning fave, could be the target in here.
#4 LYNNLY’S MOM	Flushed out from third near ¾ mark, vied with top one for runner-up spot.
#7 BEAVER CREEK MISTY	Often close-up in contention, but has 1-40 record and provisional driver.
Race Summary	Looking Santastic dueled early, yielded to a pocket trip when the favorite passed by, then stayed on willingly to the finish, earning a playback today. Play a 6-4-ALL trifecta.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1

#1 MONEYMAKESHERSMILE	Fits OK on best, gets first-time Lasix, price goes up off latest.
#7 HIGHMOON SUNSHINE	Hustled to lead on class drop to this level, widened margin throughout.
#6 MISS ROCKADALI	Got up for second behind ‘Sunshine’ from post 9.
Race Summary	Moneymakeshersmile finished behind most of the runners in this field in recent starts, but she finished 2-3-4 in four tries since October when drawing post 5 inward. She gets Lasix tonight, so it’s worth a longshot stab.

Meadowlands - Race #1

#1 ST JAMES GATE	Took the money and ran to an easy victory in local debut, likely repeater.
#6 IMPACTER	Plenty of trouble two back, out-kicked by longshot off pocket trip in follow-up.
#9 CHIEF JUSTICE	Second in last pair, backed up from post 9 in race prior.
Race Summary	St James Gate arrived from Canada, showed newfound speed and stamina for Team Burke and won easily as the odds-on favorite. No reason to think he can’t do it again on the class hike. Play a 1-6 exacta box.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-11-2020, 06:02 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #2

#2 Reservenotattained	Has been in the mix in his last four races and was third in a tougher spot last time; gets a rider change to Lopez and can respond when called upon.
#6 Wicksters Dream	Showed speed in races in New York, including in an easy win at Saratoga; broke his maiden over this strip and makes his first off the claim for Crichton, who was the original trainer.
#3 Outshine	Gave way after rapid fractions last time and should have a more favorable run here.
Race Summary	Reservenotattained gets Lopez in the saddle today and comes out of a race in which he made up ground, which is something different for him. Has enough speed to stay in range and is poised to finished well vs. these.

Gulfstream Park - Race #9

#2 Sir Roberto	Closed with a rush and was up in time in his only start, which came at Kentucky Downs; stretches out to two turns, which shouldn't be a problem.
#3 Risk Manager	Was sharp in an easy win at Keeneland in his only start and has trained well in the two months since then; can be well placed throughout.
#4 Whatmakessammyrun	Was up for third in a stakes race at Aqueduct last month and broke his maiden vs. restricted company two back at Belmont; has some class and is braced to try two turns.
Race Summary	Sir Roberto had an eye-catching move in his only race and there is little doubt he can get better with distance; one to hold off.

Gulfstream Park - Race #10

#5 Pay Any Price	Got back to winning ways last time after four straight losses; this 10 year old led at every call of the Turf Sprint Stakes in July and will be the one to catch.
#1 Quarky	Has enough speed to save his inside spot and the Oklahoma-bred can hang around for a major slice of it.
#2 Cryogenic	Is a closer when he fires and can make a race against these; has a good kick and won going five furlongs here in June.
Race Summary	Pay Any Price is head and shoulders above these when it comes to class and is still winning races at his advanced age; can mix it up early with any of these and has worn down company at this level.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-11-2020, 09:23 AM

Kevin Dolan

Event: (201229) Benevento at (201230) Sassuolo
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: December 11, 2020 2PM EST
Play: Total Under 3.25 (-110)
PLAY: UNDER 3.25

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-11-2020, 09:24 AM

Tony Mejia

Event: (615) Iona at (616) Fairfield
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: December 11, 2020 7PM EST
Play: Iona -3.0 (-110)
Rick Pitino lost his home opener in New Rochelle outright earlier this week, faltering against a talented Morgan State squad that opened as nearly a double-digit underdog. Pitino didn’t play point guard Asante Gist until the second half, seeking a spark to try to avoid an upset. Gist, who has been out with a pinkie injury, dished out a quick assist and played five minutes but couldn’t prevent his team’s demise. His debut does increase the likelihood of him participating in this MAAC opener, which will take the pressure off sophomore Tahlik Chavez and freshman Ryan Meyers, who can now get more comfortable off the ball and won’t be relied upon so heavily for play-making responsibilities. 7-footer Osborn Shema may join Gist in returning since he has yet to debut due to a groin issue. Even if he remains out, Pitino’s team should improve in their first conference game after coming out flat in their home opener. The Stags are 0-4, losing by 39 a Providence and suffering an OT loss at Stony Brook and in both ends of a home-and-home against another America East team, in-state rival Hartford. Senior guard Jesus Cruz is the lone proven commodity but he’s shot 1-for-12 from beyond the arc. Look for Pitino’s Gaels to get right here and lay the three points, a spread available at Circa and South Point.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-11-2020, 09:24 AM

Brandon Siefken

Event: (301539) Guangdong at (301540) Shanghai
Sport/League: BSKT
Date/Time: December 11, 2020 11PM EST
Play: Guangdong, To win by 21+
I am 12-2 in college basketball totals the last two days, grab my CBB FRI TOTALS 2-PLAY PACKAGE for $29.
My numbers have Guangdong a 23.5 favorite. The last time these teams played in October Guangdong won by 14. The two games before that Guangdong won by 30+. Guangdong has scored more than 130 points in their last five games. They have a very good chance to win by 22 and for +135 odds it is worth a quarter unit bet. Bet Guangdong To win by 21+.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-11-2020, 12:49 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn National

Penn National - Race 5	W-P-S / Daily Double / Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) / $0.50 Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)
Claiming $8,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 87 • Purse: $13,600 • Post: 7:44P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JUNE 11. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 11 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000, IF FOR $7,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $6,250 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * BIG DAVE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. COASTAL HIGHWAY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. DUPREE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" desig nation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. PICTOR: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
8	BIG DAVE	10/1	5/1
5	COASTAL HIGHWAY	8/1	6/1
4	DUPREE	9/2	6/1
7	PICTOR	3/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	JEEZUM JIM	3	6/1	Front-runner	92	80	91.0	73.2	61.7
1	TIPSY MOOSE	1	7/2	Front-runner	83	76	82.8	68.0	58.0
6	MICKEY T	6	15/1	Front-runner	82	77	39.2	63.6	52.1
7	PICTOR	7	3/1	Alternator/Front-runner	85	86	87.2	78.8	69.8
4	DUPREE	4	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	90	82	61.0	79.2	74.7
5	COASTAL HIGHWAY	5	8/1	Trailer	87	86	75.8	82.5	72.5
8	BIG DAVE	8	10/1	Trailer	93	83	28.8	80.2	74.7
2	THEY SHOT SONNY	2	4/1	Alternator/Non-contender	95	83	60.2	72.0	62.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-11-2020, 12:51 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turfway Park

Turfway Park - Race 4	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Double 50 cent Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6)
Optional Claiming $50,000 • 1 Mile • All-Weather • Age 2 • CR: 82 • Purse: $35,000 • Post: 7:42P
FOR FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $18,600 AT A MILE OR OVER ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $40,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Stalker. MISS EAU DE VIE is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MISS EAU DE VIE: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). BATTLE BLING: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. DO YOU LOVE ME: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
7	MISS EAU DE VIE	5/2	4/1
9	BATTLE BLING	4/1	9/2
2	DO YOU LOVE ME	10/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	MISS EAU DE VIE	7	5/2	Stalker	83	84	83.6	75.0	68.0
9	BATTLE BLING	9	4/1	Stalker	77	78	69.7	75.0	69.0
1	ON BRILLIANT	1	8/1	Stalker	61	60	63.3	63.3	47.3
5	ROLL UP MO MONEY	5	10/1	Stalker	86	87	59.6	59.6	51.1
2	DO YOU LOVE ME	2	10/1	Stalker	75	77	53.1	69.2	62.2
8	DARK BLUE FLAME	8	30/1	Stalker	65	63	39.9	39.9	20.4
4	PLIANTLEA	4	10/1	Trailer	74	74	68.7	64.4	55.9
10	STELLAR GRACE	10	5/1	Trailer	83	74	63.5	73.0	64.5
6	CLAN CARA	6	4/1	Trailer	54	66	52.1	62.6	48.6
3	CROWELLA	3	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	61	57	63.5	55.0	40.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-11-2020, 01:01 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $25000 Class Rating: 73

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 MONTE NE 5/2
# 2 REACTION TIME 8/1
# 9 WHO IS JARETT 8/1

My pick in this competition is MONTE NE. Recent figs for the rider - 28 win percent - make this gelding stand out in this group of horses in this race. Ran a solid last race. With a nice Equibase class rating average of 84, has one of the most respectable class advantages in this field. REACTION TIME - Looks decent to be on or close to the lead at the first call. The Equibase Speed Figure of 64 from his latest race looks solid in here. WHO IS JARETT - Has run soundly when racing a turf sprint race. I can't pass on this gelding given one of the most competitive rider and trainer combos on the grounds.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-11-2020, 01:02 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Laurel - Race #2 - Post: 12:54pm - SO - 9.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 79

Rating:

#1 BEYOND FOREVER (ML=8/1)

BEYOND FOREVER - Have to give this mare a fair chance. Ran a nice race last time out within the last thirty days. Another way to assign class is EPS (earnings per start). This horse has the highest in the field. I think she'll be close at the finish.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 NANA'S SHOES (ML=8/5), #5 WOWWHATABRAT (ML=2/1), #6 DON'T CHARGE IT (ML=9/2),

NANA'S SHOES - Finished second in her most recent race with a mediocre speed rating. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this bunch. WOWWHATABRAT - Will be tough for this entrant to beat this field off of that last fig. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class rating, so put her on the possibly overvalued equines list. DON'T CHARGE IT - Recent lessening speed ratings of 83/73/65 give a clue that this horse may be going off form.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#1 BEYOND FOREVER to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-11-2020, 06:12 PM

NCAAB

Friday, December 11

Northeastern @ UMass
Northeastern
— 2 starters back from LY’s 17-16 team
— picked 6th in CAA by Blue Ribbon.
— ranked #173 by KenPom
— This is Northeastern’s season opener.
— Huskies played in CAA title game the last three years.
— Northeastern was 6-9 LY in games decided by 6 or fewer points.

UMass
— 3 starters back from LY’s 14-17 team
— picked 8th in A-14 by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #126 by KenPom
— This is also the season opener for UMass
— Minutemen haven’t been in NCAA’s since 2014.
— Have more depth this year, should press more.

— Huskies lost 80-71 at UMass last year.

St John’s @ Seton Hall
St John’s (5-1)
— 4 starters back from LY’s 17-15 team
— picked 9th in Big East by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #83 by KenPom
— Red Storm already has three wins by 3 or fewer points.
— St John’s is forcing turnovers 26.6% of the time (#17)
— Red Storm is playing pace #10, very fast.

Seton Hall (3-3)
— 2 starters back from LY’s 21-9 team
— picked 4th in Big East by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #59 by KenPom
— Pirates are 1-3 vs top 100 teams, beating Penn State in OT.
— Seton Hall is experience team #23, starting 3 seniors, 2 juniors.
— Pirates are turning ball over 19.3% of time (#155).

— Seton Hall won five of last six series games.

Rider @ Manhattan
Rider (0-2)
— 0 starters back from LY’s 18-12 team
— picked 10th in MAAC by KenPom
— ranked #275 by KenPom
— Rider lost by 35 at Syracuse, by 3 at St John’s.
— Broncs are shooting only 42.2% inside arc.
— Rider was up 6 with 4:07 left at St John’s Tuesday.

Manhattan
— 2 starters back from LY’s 13-18 team
— picked 5th in MAAC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #287 by KenPom
— This is Manhattan’s season opener.
— Jaspers had 3 starters transfer out after last season.
— New point guard is a transfer from Seton Hall.

— Rider won seven of last eight series games.

North Dakota vs South Dakota State (@ Sioux Falls)
North Dakota (1-3)
— 2 starters back from LY’s 15-18 team
— picked 4th in Summit by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #246 by KenPom
— UND is 1-3, beating South Dakota by 4 last night.
— Fighting Hawks played three starters 31:00+ Thursday.
— UND is turning ball over 21.5% of time (#218).

South Dakota State (4-2)
— 5 starters back from LY’s 22-10 team
— picked 1st in Summit by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #79 by KenPom
— Jackrabbits won last three games, beating ND State by a hoop Thursday.
— South Dakota State is making 42.9% of its 3’s (#16)
— Jackrabbits played three starters 35:00 last night.

— South Dakota State won last five series games, by average of 18 points.

Villanova @ Georgetown
Villanova (4-1)
— 4 starters back from LY’s 24-7 team
— picked 1st in Big East by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #3 by KenPom
— Villanova has played schedule #34, winning last game at Texas.
— Wildcats are playing pace #346, very slow.
— Villanova gets good shots; their eFG% is #47 in country.

Georgetown (2-2)
— 1 starters back from LY’s 15-17 team
— picked last in Big East by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #97 by KenPom
— Hoyas lost by 9 to West Virginia, in only top 100 game.
— Georgetown is turning ball over 24.8% of time (#271)
— Two teams Georgetown beat are ranked #194, #326.

— Villanova won 10 of last 11 series games.

Iona @ Fairfield
Iona (1-2)
— 2 starters back from LY’s 12-17 team
— picked 6th in MAAC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #266 by KenPom
— Iona is turning ball over 24.7% (#270) of time.
— Gales got upset 83-72 at home by Morgan State Tuesday.
— New coach, lot of new players; they’re #266 in minutes continuity.

Fairfield (0-4)
— 3 starters back from LY’s 12-20 team
— picked 7th in MAAC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #299 by KenPom
— Fairfield is scoring only 60 ppg, vs schedule #205.
— Stags are shooting 26.1% on arc (#263), 44.9% inside arc (#221)
— Fairfield lost its only home game by 5 to Hartford.

— Iona won five of last seven series games.

North Dakota State vs South Dakota (@ Sioux Falls)
North Dakota State (0-5)
— 2 starters back from LY’s 25-8 team
— picked 3rd in Summit by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #172 by KenPom
— Bison has played schedule #27; they lost by 4 at Kansas.
— Bison made 10-22 on arc in 77-75 loss to SD State Thursday.
— ND State played four starters 31:00+ last night.

South Dakota (0-4)
— 1 starter back from LY’s 20-12 team
— picked 2nd in Summit by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #232 by KenPom
— Coyotes are 0-4, with three foes ranked in top 130
— South Dakota is 20-81 (24.7%) on arc so far (#276).
— Coyotes played only two guys more than 27:00 last night.

— Bison won both series games LY, by total of five points.

Marist @ Canisius
Marist (2-0)
— 4 starters back from LY’s 7-23 team
— picked last in MAAC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #252 by KenPom
— Marist beat #341 Binghamton twice LW, by 4-3 points.
— Red Foxes start two seniors, two juniors.
— Marist played first two games at pace #328, very slow.

Canisius
— 3 starters back from LY’s 12-20 team
— picked 8th in MAAC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #225 by KenPom
— This is the Canisius season opener.
— Griffins lost eight MAAC games LY by 5 or fewer points.
— Canisius returns 72.6% of last year’s scoring.

— Canisius won five of last six series games.

Nebraska @ Creighton
Nebraska (3-2)
— 2 starters back from LY’s 7-25 team
— picked last in Big 14 by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #111 by KenPom
— Nebraska lost its two top 150 games, by 3-11 points.
— This will be Cornhuskers’ first road game.
— Nebraska forces turnovers 23.5% of time (#46)

Creighton (3-1)
— 4 starters back from LY’s 24-7 team
— picked 2nd in Big East by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #13 by KenPom
— Creighton lost by a point at Kansas Tuesday.
— Bluejays are shooting 65.4% inside arc (#4)
— Creighton is #59 experience team, turning ball over 12.9% of time (#9).

— Creighton won eight of last nine series games.

Murray State @ Southern Illinois
Murray State (3-1)
— 3 starters back from LY’s 23-9 team
— picked 2nd in OVC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #98 by KenPom
— Racers lost only road game by 17 at Middle Tennessee.
— Murray is #213 in experience, but #52 in minutes continuity.
— Racers are turning ball over 21.9% of time (#226).

Southern Illinois (2-0)
— 2 starters back from LY’s 16-17 team
— picked 6th in MVC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #190 by KenPom
— Salukis won only D-I game, in OT at SE Missouri State.
— SIU starts four sophs and a senior.
— Salukis were down 9 with 4:32 left in their win at SE Missouri State.

— Murray State won last three meetings, by average of 16 points.

Niagara @ Saint Peter’s
Niagara (0-1)
— 5 starters back from LY’s 12-20 team
— picked 4th in MAAC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #255 by KenPom
— Niagara lost 75-45 in their opener 8 days ago, at Syracuse.
— Purple Eagles were 6-36 on arc, 12-29 inside arc in Carrier Dome.
— Niagara starts 2 juniors, 3 seniors.

Saint Peter’s (2-2)
— 2 starters back from LY’s 18-12 team
— picked 3rd in MAAC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #165 by KenPom
— Peacocks split first four games, beating LaSalle, Stony Brook.
— Saint Peter’s losses are to St John’s/Maryland.
— Peacocks start three sophs, two juniors.

— Saint Peter’s won four of last five series games.

Iowa State @ Iowa
Iowa State (1-1)
— 2 starters back from LY’s 12-20 team
— picked 7th in Big X by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #72 by KenPom.
— Cyclones split two home games, losing to South Dakota State.
— Iowa State shot 63.4% inside arc in its first two games.
— Cyclones start 3 juniors, 2 seniors; they’re not very deep.

Iowa (4-0)
— 5 starters back from LY’s 20-11 team
— picked 2nd in Big 14 by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #8 by KenPom.
— Iowa beat North Carolina 93-80 Tuesday, making 17-40 on arc.
— Hawkeyes scored 98 ppg in first four games.
— Iowa’s eFG% is #23 in country.

— Iowa beat Cyclones last two years, by 16-14 points.

Marquette @ UCLA
Marquette (4-1)
— 2 starters back from LY’s 18-12 team
— picked 7th in Big East by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #33 by KenPom
— Marquette is 4-1, splitting top 50 games with Oklahoma St/Wisconsin.
— This is their first road game.
— Opponents are shooting 38.9% inside arc (#17).

UCLA (4-1)
— 5 starters back from LY’s 20-12 team
— picked 2nd in Pac-12 by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #28 by KenPom
— UCLA is back to its 8-man rotation; they had been missing couple guys.
— Bruins lost at San Diego St, beat Pepperdine in triple OT in top 100 games.
— UCLA is shooting 37.8% on arc (#54).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-11-2020, 06:13 PM

603ST JOHNS -604 SETON HALL
ST JOHNS are 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread in the last 3 seasons.

605APPALACHIAN ST -606 CHARLOTTE
APPALACHIAN ST is 48-26 ATS (19.4 Units) in road games versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season since 1997.

607RIDER -608 MANHATTAN
RIDER is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games as a dog in the last 3 seasons.

609S DAKOTA ST -610 N DAKOTA
S DAKOTA ST is 12-3 ATS (8.7 Units) versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.

609S DAKOTA ST -610 N DAKOTA
Eric Henderson is 12-3 ATS (8.7 Units) versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season (Coach of S DAKOTA ST)

611VILLANOVA -612 GEORGETOWN
GEORGETOWN is 38-66 ATS (-34.6 Units) in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game since 1997.

613NEBRASKA-OMAHA -614 KANSAS
NEBRASKA-OMAHA is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in road games vs. winning teams over the last 2 seasons.

615IONA -616 FAIRFIELD
IONA is 0-11 ATS (-12.1 Units) in road games after 2 consecutive non-conference games in the last 3 seasons.

617GA SOUTHERN -618 DAVIDSON
DAVIDSON is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in home games after 2 straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons.

621NEBRASKA -622 CREIGHTON
CREIGHTON is 11-3 ATS (7.7 Units) in home games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons.