Saturday 12/12/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-12-2020, 12:15 AM

Race of the Week: Saturday's Fort Lauderdale at GP

December 10, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk
GRADE 2 $200,000 FT. LAUDERDALE STAKES AT GULFSTREAM PARK
Saturday, December 12, 2020

The Lead:
Five stakes races, 4 of them graded, highlight the second Saturday card of the Gulfstream Park Championship Meet. The Grade 2 Fort Lauderdale not only is the most significant of those, it's also the best betting race with a deep field of 10. The undercard includes the My Charmer, Rampart, Sugar Swirl and the Harlan's Holiday, the latter as a potential Pegasus World Cup prep for some.

Field Depth:
Grade 1 winner HALLADAY and Grade 2 winner / Grade 1-placed FACTOR THIS have taken on top milers, while Grade 2 winners SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN and CHANNEL CAT provide high-end depth via longer distances. DELAWARE has won at the Group 3 level in France. SPOOKY CHANNEL is a Grade 3 winner over the course.

Pace:
FACTOR THIS and HALLADAY are proven, classy front-running turf mile commodities. Over 1-1/8 miles, they insure a strong pace, along with the likes of TIDE OF THE SEA on the cut-back, as well as longshot DOSWELL and the duo of LARGENT and SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN from near the engine.

Our Eyes:
The 1-1/8 miles distance really is an intersection between the milers and the routers, and this field represents that. Looking at the historical results of the Fort Lauderdale, there might be a slight edge to the miler-types in terms of victories in recent years, but it's not overwhelming, and this particular pace scenario likely could wind up hot, underscoring those with stamina.

HALLADAY and FACTOR THIS were 1-2 for much of the Breeders' Cup Mile before tiring late and finishing off the board. The quick inclination might be to dismiss them going a furlong longer. But pace generally gets a big easier the longer you go on turf, and the class quality of this race is very good for a Grade 2, but not on the level of the Breeders' Cup Mile, of course. FACTOR THIS has run extremely well at 1-1/8 miles in the past, so perhaps the edge is his; HALLADAY is 3-for-3 on the Gulfstream Park lawn, so he has the home court edge. Neither is well drawn in the 9 and 10-hole, and both figure to be solidly backed on the tote. From a value standpoint, it's okay to shop while respecting them.

DELAWARE also is among the 'miler' discussion, though the Chad Brown trainee hasn't been running at the class levels of HALLADAY and FACTOR THIS. He's 0-4 since coming to North America, and Brown will remove blinkers hoping to get a wake-up call. He hasn't finished with the kind of energy you'd like to see or that's likely needed to win this. I'll pass, but it's never easy to block out Brown on the green. Same goes for tossing Todd Pletcher in a Gulfstream stakes, but LARGENT is a miler-type who appears to be victimized by the race shape/pace set-up.

BREAKING THE RULES and SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN have been solid middle-distance turf types in the 1-1/16 miles to 1-1/8 miles range. Both are well-drawn, but the rail and more likely pace presence for SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN probably put that one in front of BREAKING THE RULES through much of the going. The hotter it gets up front, the more you like the chances of BREAKING THE RULES. The 2 best BRIS late pace figures for BREAKING THE RULES in stakes company (strong 104 and 101) came over the Gulfstream course. I give the slight edge among this pair.

The turf marathon types on the distance reduction are led by CHANNEL CAT, SPOOKY CHANNEL and TIDE OF THE SEA. The latter has gotten good of late for Mike Maker but will be seriously tested for pace and class. It's CHANNEL CAT and SPOOKY CHANNEL that draw my attention most. CHANNEL CAT has been away since March, and since moved by Calumet Farm to their trainer Jack Sisterson (from Todd Pletcher). While that's not a trainer move you think moves the horse up, it's not a shock given the direction of that stable. CHANNEL CAT was a solid third as the beaten favorite in this race last year and will be significantly higher in price this time. Since going off the work tab in April, he returned in October and has trained on cue since. SPOOKY CHANNEL, meanwhile, returns to this race on a similar layoff pattern as last year. He never got on-tracked after a rocky trip and slow pace in the 2019 Fort Lauderdale. But even in what looked like a dull effort, he came home with the best BRIS late pace figure of his career. It just didn't show in the finish. He's training very well for this for a Brian Lynch barn that won this race in 2016 with his star Heart to Heart.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: HALLADAY is 12-for-13 in the superfecta lifetime and a perfect 3-for-3 in the winner's circle at Gulfstream. Tough post, distance and pace notwithstanding, he seems trustworthy to hold for a share under exceptional local pilot Luis Saez.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender: SPOOKY CHANNEL will be a big price and could finish with a rush while shortening the distance. In fact, it should be appealing enough of a price to take the wagering leap.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): Let's swing for the longshot fence. $25 win and place SPOOKY CHANNEL ($50). $5 exacta key-box SPOOKY CHANNEL with HALLADAY, FACTOR THIS, BREAKING THE RULES, CHANNEL CAT and SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN ($50).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-12-2020, 12:16 AM

Sat, December 12: Hong Kong International Races Full-Card Picks

SHA TIN SELECTIONS
(Saturday, December 12, 2020)

Race 1: #11 Winning Brew, #6 Master Montaro, #2 Sunset Watch, #14 Hello Beauty
Race 2: #1 Joyful Heart, #2 Nordic Warrior, #3 Ultimate Glory, #12 Stunning Impact
Race 3: #3 Enrichment, #11 Chevalier Prince, #10 Beauty Angel, #2 Charity Go
Race 4: #4 Columbus County, #1 Exultant, #7 Mogul, #3 Ho Ho Khan
Race 5: #9 Rattan, #2 Hot King Prawn, #1 Classique Legend, #4 Voyage Warrior
Race 6: #10 Pure Legend, #12 True Legend, #13 Exceptional Nice, #1 Heza Beauty
Race 7: #2 Golden Sixty, #6 Waikuku, #3 Admire Mars, #1 Beauty Generation
Race 8: #4 Furore, #3 Win Bright, #7 Magical, #2 Danon Premium
Race 9: #3 Winning Dreamer, #6 Sky Field, #1 Duke Wai, #10 Beauty Applause
Race 10: #4 The Summit, #5 Shadow Hero, #6 Super Wealthy, #2 Super Oasis

Race 1 (11:25PM ET): Snow Fairy Handicap

#11 Winning Brew won second-up last term and he has the race experience to be very competitive in the opener at Sha Tin. #6 Master Montaro has caught the eye at the trials and does bring with him an solid resume from Australia. #2 Sunset Watch has been in solid form this term and looks ready to go on with it. Belgian ace Christophe Soumillon hops up for the first ride of his short-term contract. #14 Hello Beauty is consistent and slots in light with no weight on his back.

Race 2 (11:55PM ET): Able Friend Handicap

#1 Joyful Heart makes the step down to Class 4 which suits and the key booking of Zac Purton for this task warrants respect. He’s a three-time winner in this grade who is, more than capable of shouldering the big weight. #2 Nordic Warrior ran a blinder last start. If he produces anywhere near that performance here and he’ll go close once again. #3 Ultimate Glory is consistent and rarely runs a bad race. #12 Stunning Impact is proving hard to catch but he does have a win nearing. He needs all the favours but with the right run – can figure.

Race 3 (12:25AM ET): Flintshire Handicap

#3 Enrichment has a big race in him and it just might be this contest. He’s racing well and he turned a corner in his last run to finish a close-up fifth. British ace Ryan Moore will get the best out of him and the inside ally also suits. #11 Chevalier Prince caught the eye with an impressive second-up win last start. He should relish the added furlong here and with even luck, fight out the finish. #10 Beauty Angel is looking for his fifth consecutive win. He’s swept all aside of late and does, draw well for this contest. #2 Charity Go rarely runs a bad race and only needs to offset the wide draw to be competitive here.

Race 4 (1:00AM ET): LONGINES Hong Kong Vase

#4 Columbus County might be worth taking a chance on here as he steps up to the unknown 2400m for the first time on Sunday. He closed off nicely last start for third at his first try at G2 level and if either of the big two falter, he could be the one to finish best. He’ll be a price to find out, especially off the back of his first-up run which was super impressive, albeit against weaker company. He’s a young horse open to plenty of improvement over a longer trip. #1 Exultant is hard to knock and he’s arguably the one to beat. Still though, he was under pressure early on last start and while he did manage to finish off gamely, he is going to need to step up once again if he is to run his rivals into the ground and recapture his Vase crown. #7 Mogul looked tidy when winning the G1 Grand Prix de Paris over this distance two starts ago, beating off subsequent Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe second, In Swoop. If he can put his best foot forward then he is a leading player. #3 Ho Ho Khan is next best as a course and distance winner.

Race 5 (1:40AM ET): LONGINES Hong Kong Sprint

#9 Rattan has become a notoriously slow starter but, if he does get a fast pace in this, he could be the one to finish the strongest. He’s clocked some slick final 400m times his last two runs and with a clean run, he might be worth taking a chance on to spoil the party. #2 Hot King Prawn rarely runs a bad race and comes off a tidy last-start victory in the G2 Jockey Club Sprint. He’s drawn to get the run of the race and admittedly, he probably is the one to beat. #1 Classique Legend steps out for his first Hong Kong start following a classy win in the AU$15 million The Everest at Randwick Racecourse, where he did, defeat seven individual G1 winners. Still, he has to acclimatise to a tough, new environment, which does make his task a difficult one, and his sole trial on the turf wasn’t the most impressive of performances. #4 Voyage Warrior is building into this contest nicely and did run a luckless fourth at his most recent outing. He’s worth including.

Race 6 (2:15AM ET): Highland Reel Handicap

#10 Pure Legend is actually racing well and his last-start effort bodes well for this. Vincent Ho takes the reins and with one run under his belt already this term, he is the one to beat as long as he can offset the awkward ally. #12 True Legend slots in light but is hampered by the tricky draw. Still, Alexis Badel is riding in great form at present and he deserves respect with a number of solid runs under his belt already this term. #13 Exceptional Nice has performed well across three starts and further improvement is expected here, especially with the switch to the big track from the tight turning city course. #1 Heza Beauty has a weight-bearing task but does draw favourably.

Race 7 (2:50AM ET): LONGINES Hong Kong Mile

#2 Golden Sixty is rightly Hong Kong’s rising superstar and he can stamp his claims as the jurisdiction’s top-class athlete with a win in the HK$25 million mile contest. He’s classy, brilliant and is capable of landing his 11th consecutive win this Sunday, though it will be, his toughest test to date. #6 Waikuku returns first-up which is always a concern following a lengthy layoff although, in his favour is that he does prefer to run fresh and, his handler John Size did win this race first-up in 2013 with Glorious Days. Keep safe as the runner-up in this contest last year. #3 Admire Mars won this race last year and does bring high class Japanese form with him. The old champ #1 Beauty Generation has had a freshen up and is capable of boxing on. Reports are that his trackwork has been strong.

Race 8 (3:30AM ET): LONGINES Hong Kong Cup

#4 Furore has been dominant his last two runs at G2 level and with home ground advantage, he is more than capable of scoring at G1 level in Hong Kong. He’s peaking at the right time for the right trainer, who knows how to win this race. #3 Win Bright is 2/2 over 2000m at Sha Tin at G1 level. The horse just seems to love the track and he can’t be underestimated once again. He’ll be a price and is worth supporting on an each way basis. #7 Magical is Aidan O’Brien’s super mare. Assuming she’s travelled over to Hong Kong well then she is more than likely not going to run a blinder. British ace Ryan Moore takes the reins and she’s right in this. #2 Danon Premium is as solid as they come and is going to be in the finish.

Race 9 (4:10AM ET): Lord Kanaloa Handicap

#3 Winning Dreamer is looking for a sixth unbeaten win. He owns a slick personal best over this course and distance and he rates as the one to beat, not only with the winning record but the significant improvement he has shown each start. #6 Sky Field is a supreme talent who appears suited to sprinting as opposed to going any further. He’s by Deep Field so his breeding suggests this and from the good draw he is capable of bouncing back into the winner’s arch. #1 Duke Wai has class on his side but does need the right run. #10 Beauty Applause can be rather fragile but is a smart young talent. The draw suits and he’ll look the winner a long way from home.

Race 10 (4:50AM ET): Maurice Handicap

#4 The Summit is a French import who prior to his arrival in Hong Kong, did place twice at G1 level as a three-year-old. He gets Joao Moreira up for his debut which signals intent and his trials have been sound enough to suggest that he could make his presence felt at his first try. #5 Shadow Hero is a dual Australian G1 winner who was awfully unlucky on debut. He’ll improve stepping out over further and does look a leading contender for the 2021 Four-Year-Old Classic Series. #6 Super Wealthy steps back from Class 1 to Class 2. He’ll need a race run to suit but is worth including if the tempo is quick enough. #2 Super Oasis is next best if he can offset the awkward draw.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-12-2020, 06:03 AM

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis

December 12, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
The Meadowlands has a 13-race card ready to go this evening with the 0.50 Early Pick 4 beginning in Race 6. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

1-Mindtrip (4-1)-Comes off a win at this class and raced near the top of the stack. Draws the rail and should be on or near the lead throughout. Can take another picture with the right pace and trip.
2-Rockin The Aces (8-1)-Steps-up but gets post relief and closed well in last. Does have a strong record at the Big M hitting the board in 13 of 17 with 7 wins. Should be closer to the lead, pace should be brisk and may set-up for a closer.
7-Let It Ride N (2-1)-Takes another step up the class ladder and winner of 2 straight appears to fit well with this group. Dunn might be forced to move a bit sooner, but this guy has a big brush and looks like a player again.

Race 7

1-Go West Go Fast (7/2)-Fits at this class and now draws inside. The issue is whether the rail will help or hurt this slow starter. My guess is Allard will put in play and the post draw will not hurt chances.
2-Lachie Maguire N (10-1)-10-year-old is still cashing checks and raced well in 1st Big M start this year. Zeron can put into striking range and look to pass foes down the lane at a nice price.
3-In Rock We Trust (9/2)-Has shown better form for new barn in last 2 starts at this level. Best to not overlook.
8-Italian Delight N (5-1)-Ships in from Yonkers and was facing better. Has raced here in the past with some success. Has hit the board in 6 of 9 starts with 2 wins. Dunn may look to leave in a race without a standout.

Race 8

3-Doubleagentman (3-1)-Couldn't seal the deal in 1st start in the Burke barn. Gingras left in last and should get the top in very good shape. Draws well, there isn't much gate speed to contend with and should be more difficult to beat than in last.
7-Slippin The Clutch (5-1)-Cashed a 3rd place check in Big M debut and the fractions were lively. Should benefit from the start and Mark Mac could leave and get a nice trip behind #3. Using at square price and hoping the journey is smooth.

Race 9

5-Ana Afreet N (9/2)-Ana is in fine form and steps up looking for 2nd straight picture. 5-year-old is versatile and a late bloomer winning 21 of 42 lifetime starts in last 2 years. Just missed beating this kind from the 9-hole on 11/14.
9-Highalator (7/2)-Scratched sick on 11/15 and missed the Potomac. Qualified on 11/25 at Dover which was fine, but was short last week racing there on 12/3. Will lean towards needing the last start and it was from the 8-hole. Knows how to win at the Big M (24 starts-16 wins). Has the speed to get the point and not look back if ready for a big try.

0.20 Early Pick 4

1,2,7/1,2,3,8/3,7/5,9
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-12-2020, 06:05 AM

Jeff Siegel's Gulfstream Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 12/12/20

December 12, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Gulfstream Park Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saturday, December 12, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 12:05 ET Grade: C+
Use: 7-Iconic; 10-January Won; 11-Frank First

Forecast: Iconic returns to his claim level, backs up to a one-turn mile and has recent speed figures vs. tougher foes that are better than par for this class. A three-time winner over the local main track, the veteran son of Paddy O’Prado looks capable of returning to winning form in this bottom-rung $6,250 seller. January Won was victorious in a restricted (nw-3) $12,500 affair two-turning at GPW last month and is realistically spotted at this lower price. The son of New Year’s Day should be running on late. Frank First captured a similar event over seven furlongs at GPW three weeks ago, has enjoyed past success over this main track (three wins) and has a good stalking style that should produce a comfortable trip outside. At 8-1 on the morning line he’s certainly worth including somewhere on your ticket.
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RACE 2: Post: 12:35 ET Grade: A-
Single: 2-Semper Fidelis

Forecast: Semper Fidelis was completely eliminated soon after the start when badly impeded from the rail in his debut at GPW last month and then rallied miraculously to be a fast-finishing second in a better-than-par maiden special weight sprint for 2-year-olds. The S. Joseph, Jr. barn has stellar stats with second-time starters (25%) so if this very promising son of Fast Anna enjoys a good start and a clean trip he should be very tough to beat. He’s 2-1 on the morning line and will offer value at anywhere near that price, so let’s make him a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:05 ET Grade: B
Use: 4-Gambling Cat; 8-Con Lima

Forecast: Con Lima and Gambling Cat both exit tougher stakes race and will fit much in this first level allowance turf miler for juvenile fillies. ‘Lima, runner-up in both the P. G. Johnson S. and most recently the-off-turf Our Dear Page S., has been freshened since September and shows recent drills at Palm Beach Downs that should have her fit and ready. Though she has enough early speed to contest the pace, we suspect she’ll be most effective if held up early and allowed to run late. ‘Cat was wide and overmatched in the Jessamine S.-G2 at Keeneland in October but charts well here with a repeat of sharp Belmont Park debut maiden win the previous month. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll press with extra tickets keying Con Lima on top.
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RACE 4: Post: 1:35 ET Grade: B+
Single: 5-Letruska

Forecast: Letruska was burned up setting sprinter’s fractions in the nine-furlong Beldame Invitational S.-G2 in early October and understandably caved in, but she’s ideally suited for this one-turn mile against this softer group of fillies and mares and seems likely to return to winning form in this year’s edition of the Rampart S.-G2. A perfect two-for-two over the Gulfstream Park main track, the daughter of Super Saver will race without blinkers for the first time in her career and we suspect the equipment chance will pay immediate dividends. A likely gate-to-wire candidate, she’s listed at 2-1 on the morning line and will offer value in the win pool and in rolling exotic play at or near that price.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:05 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-Fierce Scarlett; 9-Napa Rules

Forecast: Fierce Scarlett seems fairly solid in this first-level allowance middle distance turf affair for older fillies and mares. The daughter of Scat Daddy will be making her second start off a layoff after appearing a tad rusty in a similar affair at Aqueduct last month, and with I. Ortiz, Jr. riding her back she should be able to produce a winning late kick. Napa Rules might be worth including as a back-up. She looks pretty cheap on paper but has a prior win over the course and numbers that are fairly competitive. Toss her in somewhere at 10-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 6: Post: 2:38 ET Grade: B+
Use: 2-Lady’s Island; 3-Golden Ami

Forecast: Golden Ami gets tested for class after dismantling her opposition in a pair of easy wins to begin her career. The daughter of Goldencents didn’t make it to the races until the winter of her four year old season – she won a maiden race over the Gulfstream Park main track in March – and then most recently went north to Woodbine to take an allowance over the all-weather surface by more than five lengths, earning a stakes-quality speed figure in the process. Drawn outside the main speed today, the J. Carroll-trained filly probably will be asked to stalk and pounce in a slight change of tactics but she easily could be good enough to do just that. Lady’s Island is a rocket ship from the gate and seems certain to be the controlling inside speed. A seven-time winner (from 11 starts) over the local main track, the veteran mare has been freshened since early October and shows only two easy workouts since, but with a history of firing fresh we’re going to assume she’s ready. These are the two we’ll be including in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Golden Ami.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:08 ET Grade: B
Single: 1-Midlaner

Forecast: After drawing the rail in his debut sprinting at Churchill Downs last month, Midlaner is stuck on the fence again today in this one-turn mile maiden affair juvenile, but this time he should be seasoned enough to overcome the disadvantageous draw. The son of Flatter flashed excellent speed before weaking late in a hot race in his debut and today projects to be the controlling speed in an affair that doesn’t on paper appear to be all that strong. The E. Kenneally-trained gelding shows a couple of easy breezes at Palm Meadows to tick him over since shipping down, so at 3-1 on the morning line he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 8: Post: 3:38 ET Grade: B
Use: 3-Our Bay B Ruth; 5-Lady Lawyer

Forecast: Our Lady Lawyer is genuine, consistent, versatile and improving, so the daughter of Blame and looks primed to step forward again this year’s renewal of the listed My Charmer S. over a distance of ground on grass for fillies and mares. In a race that on paper lacks pace, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the C. Brown-trained filly make the running, just as she did in a facile allowance victory at Keeneland in her most recent outing in late October. The lightly-raced 4-year-old shows five wins from nine career starts, retains T. Gaffalione, and seems the logical top pick at 2-1 on the morning line. Our Bay B Ruth deserves some consideration, as well. Freshened since September and a winner of her only prior start (last year’s Tropical Park Oaks) over the Gulfstream Park turf course, the daughter of Candy Ride should be prominent throughout and have every chance from the quarter pole home.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:09 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Phat Man; 7-Tatweej

Forecast: The 2020 edition of the Harlan’s Holiday S.-G3 is an intriguing event that features a few old pros and one up-and-coming colt that brought $2.5 million as a yearling. The well-bred Tatweej, a son of Tapit from the high class mare Tiz Miz Sue, was beaten in his debut but has since reeled off three consecutive sharp wins in overnight company and gets tested for class while moving into stakes competition and stretching out to two-turns for the first time. He’ll need improvement in the speed figure department to extend his winning streak to four, but the T. Pletcher-trained colt seems likely to be the controlling speed and given that type of trip may prove hard to catch. On pure form Phat Man is the one to fear most. First of second in 15 of 28 career starts and an excellent runner-up in this race last year, the J. K. Sweezey-trained gelding likes to lag early and blast home, and if our top pick can’t see out the trip he’s the most likely to pick up the pieces.
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RACE 10: Post: 4:40 ET Grade: B-
Use: 8-Spooky Channel; 9-Factor This

Forecast: The 2020 Ft. Lauderdale S.-G2 for older middle distance turf specialists is loaded with front-running types, so the natural inclination is try find the best closer and hope that that he gets fast fractions up front and good racing luck that can produce an upset score. Spooky Channel fits the bill. The veteran son of English Channel, away since July 4 when he finished a close sixth in the Manhattan S.-G1 at Belmont Park while being victimized by the race flow, returns with a steady series of workouts that should have him fit enough, and with clear sailing through the lane might tag the speed at a big price (he’s 12-1 on the morning line). A winner of eight races from 16 starts, the hard-hitting gelding knows where the wire is, retains regular pilot J. Leparoux, and though perhaps best as amarathon type is capable of winning at this nine furlong trip if things go his way. For protection, you may want to consider including Factor This on your ticket. He may be the most reliable of the need-the-lead types and has several triple-digit Beyer speed figures to go back to, so after setting the pace and weakening late in the BC Mile in his last start the B. Cox-trained 5-year-old should greatly appreciate this lesser assignment
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Race 11: Post Time: 5:11 ET Grade: C
Use: 1-Lease; 6-Millean; 12-Mira Mission

Forecast: The finale is a wide-open grass grab bag for maiden $50,000 claiming 2-year-olds. Anything goes, so use as many as your budget allows. Millean was a well-beaten sixth in his only prior outing but that came against much tougher straight maidens at Saratoga and the son of Blame certainly should improve in this considerably easier spot for T. Pletcher. His recent series of workouts at Palm Beach Downs indicates he’s plenty fit. Mira Mission, a fair fourth vs. maiden special weight foes in his debut at Belmont Park in October, is another likely to step forward considerably with a race under his belt and the drop to this much easier spot. The extreme outside draw is no bargain but if he can drop over and save some early ground he should be heard from late. Lease is yet another showing the maiden-to-maiden claiming angle, lands the good rail, adds blinkers, and should find himself in a good stalking position while saving ground. We’ll see what he can do with that type of trip.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-12-2020, 06:49 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #5

#7 Moss Boss	Taking a swing with this one, as he proved he could handle this type of company when facing the locals for the first time, and he's bred to handle the added ground. Press and finish trip at a price?
#5 Rippolino	Improved when going long at second asking, and another tactical trip should be in store for him today. Wouldn't want anything shorter than the 7/2 ML offering.
#2 Manor House	Debuts going long for a capable team, but check the will-pays and get a look at this guy on the track before diving in.
Race Summary	Moss Boss should get a bit overlooked on the move around two turns, but he stacked up well at this level going short last time out and should bei n line for a great trip near the top.

Laurel Park - Race #7

#3 Passage of Lines	Steps back up to this level where he caught a runaway winner two starts back, and this seven-furlong run might might work in his favor as a grinding finisher.
#8 Indian Lake	He finally got the job done to graduate last out after failing as the chalk on three previous occasions. Respect the recent form, but he's trying winners for the first time at a likely underlaid price.
#4 Silver Sun	Didn't fire a big one when trying winners for the first time, but he's not far removed from some races that would keep him competitive with these.
Race Summary	Passage of Lines would be plenty playable at something like the 9/2 ML price, as he gets some added ground to work with after an improved effort last time out with easier.

Laurel Park - Race #9

#7 Imagine Victory	She hasn't shown much yet, but it's encouraging that the new connections step her back up off the claim while adding blinkers -- seems like there might have been a plan here.
#1 Miss Philly Dilly	Just missed with softer in the mud last out, but she could be in line for a bit of a tricky go of things from the fence with her forward, but not speedy, running style.
#2 Zola B	Would want her on the multi-race tickets as she drops back in for a tag after trying maiden special weight company off the claim. She's quick enough to find a good spot near the top here.
Race Summary	Imagine Victory gets an encouraging step up off the claim while getting blinkers, she may still have something better to offer in this third lifetime start.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-12-2020, 06:50 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Northfield Park - Race #1

#1 SQUEEZE THIS	Rode rail in third, willing finish, starts from rail tonight.
#3 TOGETHERFOREVER	Worked out pocket trip from post 9, late surge came up just short.
#4 TALKIN AGAIN	Pressed winning fave a long way before fading, provisional driver in bike.
Race Summary	Squeeze This followed Together Forever and both runners finished strong, though unable to catch the 3-to-5 favorite. He can turn the tables with advantageous rail draw. Play 1-3 and 1-4 exactas.

Meadowlands - Race #1

#3 FLYINGEVENBETTOR N	Chased rapid pace, caught late by the favorite for runner-up spot.
#2 CLAYTONS BETTOR N	Month-long series of seconds ended as post 8 favorite last week.
#8 NO QUARTER	Useful try from post 10 in local debut, even-paced in follow-up, took money in both.
Race Summary	Flyingevenbettor N finished third in a rapid-paced, 1:48.4 mile after nearly two months away. He gets pace to run at and figures tough with a duplicate effort. Play 3-2 and 3-8 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #11

#10 AINTNOBETTOR A	Visually impressive win against lesser, must use in all gimmicks.
#3 TORRIN HANOVER	Held third through :55.2 back half on drop to this level.
#8 OUTLAWGRABBINGEARS	Hard hitter in preferred company at Flamboro.
Race Summary	Taking a longshot stab on Aintnobettor A, who closed with a mid-track flourish in a :27.4 final quarter to win going away. He steps up in class and starts from the second tier, but the price will be right.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-12-2020, 06:51 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #6

#3 Golden Ami	Hasn't been headed in two career starts and in her latest went 6.5F in 1:14 2-5 at Woodbine; takes a huge step up but clearly is a filly of immense quality.
#2 Lady's Island	Is as quick as they want her to be and has won 7 of 11 at GP; faded in a G2 last time but was runner-up in a G2 just prior to that. Always one to consider.
#5 Cinnabunny	Has taken four of six career starts and has been dominant at Parx; moved elsewhere and into stakes company for the first time. Will get pressure today.
Race Summary	Golden Ami has displayed that she's a little bit different in just two starts as she's been dominant. She faces her strongest challenge but will bring challenges to others that they often don't see.

Gulfstream Park - Race #9

#4 Eye of a Jedi	Won two straight over this track and takes a step up out of non-graded stakes races; has a good closing move and will get a good pace in front of him.
#1 Tax	Has raced only twice this year, but those were in the Pegasus World Cup and the Oaklawn Handicap; is fresh since he hasn't started since May and can be close up throughout.
#7 Tatweej	Has cruised in his last three races and moves up to stakes company; the $2.5 million yearling purchase in 2017 has a chance to pay off against good rivals here.
Race Summary	Eye of a Jedi has done extremely well lately and has the kick that will work well in this spot.

Gulfstream Park - Race #10

#4 Breaking the Rules	Has some speed but will be forced to stalk here, and that will make him dangerous; in two GP starts, he won one and lost a photo in the other.
#1 Somelikeithotbrown	Has speed and can benefit from taking the shortest way home; graded winner fits with these.
#10 Halladay	Can overcome the outside post with his speed and his last appearance was in the G1 BC Mile, when he set the pace and was caught late. serious player.
Race Summary	Breaking the Rules has a running style that plays into this pace; he has several good efforts vs. decent company and make a move ahead of the deep closers.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-12-2020, 12:08 PM

NCAAB

Saturday, December 12

Florida @ Florida State
Florida (3-0)
— 3 starters back from LY’s 19-12 team
— picked 5th in CAA by Blue Ribbon.
— ranked #18 by KenPom
— Gators won first three games, beating Boston College 90-70.
— Florida is forcing turnovers 26.8% of time (#13)
— Gators start three juniors, two sophs; they don’t have a senior.

Florida State (2-0)
— 3 starters back from LY’s 26-5 team
— picked 4th in ACC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #22 by KenPom
— Seminoles beat Indiana by a hoop in OT Wednesday.
— FSU is shooting only 44.2% inside arc (#240)
— State is forcing turnovers 26.8% of time (#14).

— FSU won last six series games, by an average of 10 points.

Cincinnati @ Tennessee
Cincinnati (2-1)
— 3 starters back from LY’s 20-10 team
— picked 6th in AAC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #60 by KenPom
— Cincy won two of three games, losing 77-69 to rival Xavier.
— Bearcats are shooting 23.2% on arc (#293)
— This is first road game of year for Cincinnati.

Tennessee (1-0)
— 4 starters back from LY’s 17-14 team
— picked 1st in SEC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #19 by KenPom
— Vols jumped out to 26-10 lead, won opener 56-47 over Colorado.
— Tennessee forced 23 turnovers on only 64 possessions.
— Vols start two sophs, two seniors (experience #155).

TCU @ Texas A&M
TCU (4-2)
— 2 starters back from LY’s 16-16 team
— picked 9th in Big X by KenPom
— ranked #69 by KenPom
— TCU lost last two games, giving up 80.5 ppg to Oklahoma/Providence.
— Horned Frogs are playing pace #348, very slow.
— TCU starts three juniors, three frosh (experience #283)

Texas A&M (3-0)
— 3 starters back from LY’s 16-14 team
— picked 11th in SEC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #73 by KenPom
— Aggies whacked three stiffs, giving up 62.3 ppg.
— A&M is forcing turnovers 28.4% of time
— Aggies have turned ball over 25.2% of time themselves.

Oklahoma State @ Wichita State
Oklahoma State (5-0)
— 1 starter back from LY’s 18-14 team
— picked 8th in Big X by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #46 by KenPom
— OSU won first five games, winning 70-62 at Marquette.
— Cowboys have one of best frosh in country (Cunningham, 20.3 ppg)
— OSU is playing pace #54, pretty fast.

Wichita State (1-1)
— 3 starters back from LY’s 23-8 team
— picked 7th in AAC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #101 by KenPom
— Wichita has an interim coach this year; Marshall got fired.
— Shockers beat Oral Roberts by 5, lost to Missouri by 10.
— Wichita is shooting only 38.8% inside arc.

Memphis @ Auburn
Memphis (4-2)
— 4 starters back from LY’s 21-10 team
— picked 2nd in AAC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #53 by KenPom
— Memphis lost two of three top 100 games, beating Saint Mary’s.
— Tigers are playing pace #19, very fast.
— Memphis is experience team #292 that forces turnovers 24.1% of time (#38)

Auburn (2-2)
— 0 starters back from LY’s 25-6 team
— picked 7th in SEC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #76 by KenPom
— Auburn scored 67-55 in losses, 90+ in its wins.
— Tigers are turning ball over 24.4% of time (#274)
— Rebuilding Auburn is #308 in experience.

Old Dominion @ VCU
Old Dominion (2-1)
— 4 starters back from LY’s 13-19 team
— picked 6th in C-USA by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #104 by KenPom
— Monarchs lost by 18 at Maryland, beat a couple stiffs.
— ODU starts two seniors, three juniors (experience #19).
— As usual, ODU is poor behind arc (28.2%, #248)

VCU (4-2)
— 1 starter back from LY’s 18-13 team
— picked 10th in MAAC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #63 by KenPom
— VCU split four top 100 games already.
— Rans force turnovers 25.2% of time (#24)
— VCU plays lot of guys (bench minutes #13)

— VCU won four of last five games vs their old conference rival.

Cal-Santa Barbara @ LMU
UCSB (3-0)
— 4 starters back from LY’s 21-10 team
— picked 1st in Big West by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #123 by KenPom
— Gauchos beat LMU 69-58 at home Monday, holding Lions to 30.5% from floor.
— UCSB also beat couple of NAIA stiffs.
— Gauchos start 3 seniors, 2 juniors (experience team #16)

LMU (2-3)
— 1 starter back from LY’s 11-21 team
— picked 8th in WCC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #138 by KenPom
— LMU scored 85 points in both wins; 73-64-58 in losses.
— Lions are turning ball over 22.9% of time (#246)
— LMU beat Southern Utah, Long Beach in their two home games.

Utah @ BYU
Utah (2-0)
— 4 starters back from LY’s 16-15 team
— picked 5th in Pac-12 by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #57 by KenPom
— Utah beat Washington by 14, Idaho State by 16.
— Utes are #246 in experience, starting a junior, three sophs
— Utah is forcing turnovers 23.7% of time (#41).

BYU (5-2)
— 2 starters back from LY’s 24-8 team
— picked 2nd in WCC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #92 by KenPom
— BYU is already playing its 8th game, their 5th top 100 game.
— Cougars are turning ball over 21.7% of time (#227)
— BYU’s last three games were all decided by 6 or fewer points.

— Utah won four of last six series games.

Clemson vs Alabama (@ Atlanta)
Clemson (4-0)
— 4 starters back from LY’s 16-15 team
— picked 8th in ACC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #23 by KenPom
— Clemson already has three top 100 wins (Miss St, Purdue, Maryland)
— Tigers are forcing turnovers 29.7% of time (#6)
— Clemson allowed 50.3 ppg in its first four games.

Alabama (3-1)
— 4 starters back from LY’s 16-15 team
— picked 3rd in SEC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #48 by KenPom
— Alabama hasn’t played in 10 days, since Maui Classic.
— Crimson Tide has played at pace #9 so far, very fast.
— Alabama starts three seniors, two sophs.

Oregon @ Washington
Oregon (3-1)
— 2 starters back from LY’s 24-7 team
— picked 1st in Pac-12 by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #25 by KenPom.
— Ducks beat Seton Hall by 13, lost to Missouri by 8
— Oregon is shooting 57.8% inside the arc (#33)
— Oregon is #40 in experience, but only #274 in continuity.

Washington (1-3)
— 3 starters back from LY’s 15-17 team
— picked 10th in Pac-12 by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #95 by KenPom.
— Huskies lost two top 100 games, by 34 to Baylor, 14 to Utah.
— Washington is shooting 24.7% on arc (#282)
— Huskies lost to Cal-Riverside on a neutral floor, a red flag.

— Oregon won last nine series games, winning last four visits here.

Illinois @ Missouri
Illinois (4-1)
— 4 starters back from LY’s 21-10 team
— picked 3rd in Big 14 by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #15 by KenPom
— Illini lost to Baylor by 13; won by 15 at Duke Tuesday.
— Illinois has made 47.3% of its 3’s so far (#4)
— Illini starts conference play Tuesday, vs Minnesota.

Missouri (4-0)
— 4 starters back from LY’s 15-16 team
— picked 13th in SEC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #45 by KenPom
— Mizzou already has wins over Oregon, Wichita State.
— Tigers are shooting 60.9% inside arc (#13)
— Mizzou starts 3 seniors and a junior (#9).

— Missouri won this game the last two years, by 7-16 points.

North Dakota vs North Dakota State (@ Sioux Falls)
North Dakota (1-4)
— 2 starters back from LY’s 15-18 team
— picked 4th in Summit by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #247 by KenPom
— UND is 1-4, splitting games last two nights.
— Fighting Hawks played 3 starters 31:00+ Thursday, 4 starters 31:00+ Friday.
— UND is experience team #260; they have no seniors.

North Dakota State (1-5)
— 2 starters back from LY’s 25-8 team
— picked 3rd in Summit by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #166 by KenPom
— Bison has played schedule #45; they lost by 4 at Kansas.
— Bison got their first win of year last nite, shooting 77% inside arc.
— ND State played four starters 30:00+ last two nights.

— State beat North Dakota by 36 in Summit tourney LY.

South Dakota State vs South Dakota (@ Sioux Falls)
South Dakota (0-5)
— 1 starter back from LY’s 20-12 team
— picked 2nd in Summit by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #238 by KenPom
— Coyotes are 0-5; last three losses were by 7 or fewer points.
— South Dakota is 28.3% on arc so far (#246).
— Coyotes start three sophs and a junior (#185 experience)

South Dakota State (5-2)
— 5 starters back from LY’s 22-10 team
— picked 1st in Summit by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #78 by KenPom
— Jackrabbits are 3-0 vs teams outside top 100, winning by 4-2-12 points. .
— South Dakota State is making 40.8% of its 3’s (#24)
— Jackrabbits are #7 in country in minutes continuity.

— State won five of last six series games.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-12-2020, 12:09 PM

651FLORIDA -652 FLORIDA ST
FLORIDA ST is 22-40 ATS (-22 Units) after a close win by 3 points or less since 1997.

653MISSOURI-KC -654 TOLEDO
MISSOURI-KC is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) off 2 or more consecutive road losses in the last 3 seasons.

655NOTRE DAME -656 KENTUCKY
NOTRE DAME is 9-2 ATS (6.8 Units) after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.

657DAYTON -658 MISSISSIPPI ST
MISSISSIPPI ST is 11-1 ATS (9.9 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.

659TENNESSEE ST -660 IUPUI
IUPUI is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 in the last 3 seasons.

661WI-GREEN BAY -662 N IOWA
N IOWA is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after 2 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers in the last 3 seasons.

663CINCINNATI -664 TENNESSEE
CINCINNATI is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) after a win by 6 points or less in the last 3 seasons.

665SYRACUSE -666 BOSTON COLLEGE
SYRACUSE is 15-4 ATS (10.6 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=45% since 1997.

667LASALLE -668 DREXEL
DREXEL is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite in the last 3 seasons.

669TEXAS A&M -670 TCU
TCU is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-12-2020, 01:49 PM

Ralph Michaels

Event: (433) Navy at (434) Army
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: December 12, 2020 3PM EST
Play: Army -7.5 (-105)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-12-2020, 01:49 PM

Oskeim Sports

Event: (119) Coastal Carolina at (120) Troy
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: December 12, 2020 3PM EST
Play: Troy +13.0 (-110)
My math model only favors Coastal Carolina by 11.85 points in this game and the Chanticleers enter off the school's biggest win in program history, a 22-17 win over BYU with ESPN's College GameDay on campus. If there is ever a letdown spot, this would be it as Coastal Carolina now travels to face a 5-5 Troy squad that has lost three of its last four games both straight-up and against-the-spread.
Since 1980, undefeated college football teams playing away from home from Game Ten out are a money-burning 70-90-1 ATS (44%), including 59-75-2 ATS as conference road favorites. Finally, Troy is 6-0 ATS as a double-digit home underdog since becoming a Division-I program in 2001. Grab the points with the Trojans!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-12-2020, 01:49 PM

Brandon Siefken

Event: (707) UTEP at (708) Arizona
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: December 12, 2020 6PM EST
Play: Arizona Total Over 77.5 (-125)
I am currently 15-4 in my last 19 basketball totals plays. Get my Saturday college basketball totals package of 2 picks for $29 or 3 picks for $39 on my Wager Talk page. My numbers have this game 84-57 Arizona. That is 7.5 points off the line which gives us enough value to bet. Arizona scored 85 on Bakersfield whom I have ranked slightly below UTEP. Arizona is shooting 47% on the season and it seems they are just catching fire and should romp at home in this one. UTEP only has one game to check vs a worthy opponent but besides the numbers I do not think their defense can hold this potent offense. Bet Arizona team total Over 77.5. I actually would prefer a 1st half team total but it is not available yet. If you see an Arizona 1H team total of 38.5 or less take that Over instead.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-12-2020, 01:51 PM

The Prez

Event: (143) Auburn at (144) Mississippi State
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: December 12, 2020 7PM EST
Play: Mississippi State +6.5 (-110)
Both SEC programs have been inconsistent and disappointing. The Auburn athletic department telephones are still ringing after the Tigers disappeared after three quarters versus the Aggies of A&M. Auburn was outscored by a 17-0 margin in the final stanza losing a second straight and the fourth of the season.
Mike Leach is feeling no less pressure from the powers inside of the university. After a Week 1 beatdown of the LSU Tigers the Leach Air Raid offense was sick. The Bulldogs have averaged less than 14 ppg since defeating the Tigers in the season opener. That said Leach's quarterback JT Daniels has increased his production and confidence the last two weeks.
Looking for Leach to pull that damn rabbit out of his helmet and secure the SEC upset in Baton Rouge Saturday.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-12-2020, 01:56 PM

Tony Mejia

Event: (421) Virginia at (422) Virginia Tech
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: December 12, 2020 8PM EST
Play: Total Over 62.0 (-110)
Brennan Armstrong has picked up over 400 total yards of offense over the past two weeks, becoming the first QB in program history to do so. He's got plenty of weapons and will need them since this is likely to be a shootout at Lane Stadium. Hendon Hooker is fine after last week's scare and has the nation's leader in all-purpose yardag, Khalil Herbert, in the mix to loosen up the defense. Virginia gave up 520 passing yards against Boston College and is depleted in the secondary, while Tech saw some of its top defensive backs opt out due to the uncertainty related with the season. Without biting cold, rain or snow – it will be a rather mild 45-degree night, so there's really nothing to keep this a high-scoring game where both teams top 30 and the offense that has the ball last ends up prevailing in this Commonwealth Clash. Ride the over.