Thursday 12/24/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Jeff Siegel's National Best Plays - 12/24/20

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December 24, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s National Day Makers for Thursday, December 24, 2020


Gulfstream Park First Race – Post time: 11:30 ET
2-Call Curt (7/2)

Away since May but returns sporting a healthy and steady worktab that should have him fit and ready for this maiden $35,000 claiming turf miler for older horses. The barn is quite capable with layoff runners and this son of Sky Mesa, in the frame in each of his three prior outings, has prior form over this course and distance that is good enough to beat this field. Drawn comfortably inside and likely to enjoy an ideal pace-stalking, ground-saving trip, he’s a win play and rolling exotic single at or near his morning line of 7/2.

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Gulfstream Park Fourth Race – Post time: 1:00 ET
1-Movie Moxy (3-1)

Arrives from Churchill Downs fresh from a facile first-level allowance romp at this one-turn mile main track trip and should be quite capable of scoring right back despite the raise in class. The daughter of Street Sense has a perfect pace-stalking style guarantees a clean journey, and with two easy breezes to tick her over following a five week respite she appears to produce another significant forward move. The E. Kenneally-trained 3-year-old is listed at 3-1 on the morning line and at that price she offers plenty of value in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.

*

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Tampa Bay Downs - Race #3

#5 Mi Cleopatra and I	Stretchout player should find a good spot near the top, and she's bred to get two turns. There is a little green in her pedigree, too, so she might like this trip.
#1 Beauty Genius	Steps up to try winners in a very reasonable spot off the $16,000 MCL win, and she's quick enough to find a good spot near the top in the early going.
#6 Formal Treasure	Finisher scored last out on the local course, but his overall form seems just a touch light compared to some of these. Not totally sold.
Race Summary	Mi Cleopatra and I doesn't catch the deepest group here while stretching around two turns on the lawn, and she's the only one in here to have beaten winners before.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #6

#6 Diamond Ore	No doubt he's the one to beat off the really good first route try at Woodbine, and there's little reason to think the dirt here will pose a problem. Half-sister to Arrogate should be a handful here.
#2 Zarella	Caught a tough, open-lengths winner in that last one, and she should get another nice tracking trip from close range. That said, she doesn't have a huge finishing gear, and that leaves her likely underneath again.
#3 J D's Vista	She never got involved in the Churchill debut when sent to post at 40/1, but she'll stretch to two turns while adding blinkers, and there is hope for improvement at this trip.
Race Summary	Diamond Ore has to carry her form from the synthetic surface at Woodbine, but she's bred to handle it just fine, and her first route try impressed.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #7

#10 Battle Creek	Reliable finisher might get enough pace to make a dent today, and he'll probably offer something better than the 6/1 ML price.
#1 Kendama	Should be tough here after a good effort with stakes company last out at Laurel, and he should get a cozy trip saving some ground from the fence.
#2 Recorder	Tactical type tries the turf for the first time here after romping with cheaper last out. He has run well going long before and is bred to handle the surface switch.
Race Summary	Battle Creek might get a little lost on the board, but he brings pretty reliable form to this one where he figures to get a decent enough pace to chase.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1

#7 MY BOY CHRISTIAN	Right set-up, right price on return from the Meadowlands.
#5 HEAT WAVE HANOVER	Middle move to short-lived lead on step up to this level.
#3 GINGER TREE BREN	Seeks third win in a row after 0-for-9 start to the year.
Race Summary	My Boy Christian is a live longshot. He couldn't keep up in a fast-paced Meadowlands race, but rallied to win from post 10 the race prior, a running style that translates well in this spot. Play 7-3 and 7-5 exactas.

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #3

#6 ST MARTINS	Best horse, bad breaking habit, all or nothing with second-time Lasix
#5 I'LLALWAYSBEBACK	Finished in the money in 4 of last 5, value remains.
#7 HOTSPRINGS VOLO	Moved at half, faded near lane, re-emerged in slow final quarter.
Race Summary	St Martins raced close-up to the stretch and earned a big speed figure two back, then broke stride in a heavily-bet start with Lasix. He should win if he stays flat, so play 6-5, 6-7 and 6-8 exactas.

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #7

#6 TW LAUXMONT	Lacked room on final turn while winner fled the scene.
#4 TROLLER	Chased the 1-to-9 favorite around the track.
#2 CHRISTOPHER CRAZO	Drops, starts from better post, nearing $100k mark.
Race Summary	TW Lauxmont trotted evenly in a split division race that timed 1-2/5 seconds faster. He was trapped inside the stalling favorite in the third quarter.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

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Gulfstream Park - Race #4

#1 Movie Moxy	Had solid wins vs. strong company in her last two and cruised last time at this distance; developing into a filly of quality.
#5 Maedean	Has the class but hasn't been out since March. In 2019. she won the Tempted Stakes and was second in the G2 Demoiselle, both at Aqueduct.
#3 Thisismytime	Roped in a Million Preview race at GPW last out, and did not in remarkably fast and easy fashion; will be tough to beat if she runs back to her latest.
Race Summary	Moxie Moxy has good speed, is very sharp and can dictate the pace; one to catch.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8

#6 Friendly Fella	Ran off for an easy win two back and then tired last out running longer; turns back in distance and can be strong again.
#8 Blessed Journey	Fought it out for a narrow win vs. N2L company last time and should be able to perform well as he steps up in class.
#5 Taamer	Set the pace and was caught late last time out; solid contender at this level.
Race Summary	Friendly Fella got tired going longer last time out and is back to seven furlongs and can last vs. these.

Gulfstream Park - Race #10

#8 Awsum Roar	Made a tremendous move from last and won going away; will be closer early and should be able to forward a similar kick under Zayas, who was up last time.
#6 Dahlonega	Was second two races back and then was outrun in a much tougher spot; is back to a more comfortable level and can be in the mix from the start.
#9 Miss Miami	Ran on for second at this level after moving up off a win; has a good closing move and keeps Lopez.
Race Summary	Awsum Roar made an eye-popping run last trip and gets a good pace ahead of her; can pick them up late.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park

Gulfstream Park - Race 9	$1 Daily Double / $2 Quinella / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Super Hi 5
Optional Claiming $16,000 • 5 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 91 • Purse: $40,000 • Post: 3:36P
(RAIL AT 108 FEET). FOR STATE BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $16,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 24 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES)(MAIDEN RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THEMAIN TRACK AT FIVE FURLONGS)

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * PRECOCIOUS PEACH: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the hi ghest TrackMaster Power Rating. WAR STAR: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. FOLLOW ME MOM: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth s tart after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. GOT GLEE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
10	PRECOCIOUS PEACH	4/1	4/1
8	WAR STAR	7/2	5/1
12	FOLLOW ME MOM	15/1	10/1
3	GOT GLEE	15/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
12	FOLLOW ME MOM	12	15/1	Front-runner	88	86	108.8	66.4	44.9
11	SONG RIVER	11	6/1	Front-runner	92	91	104.2	80.8	66.3
3	GOT GLEE	3	15/1	Front-runner	84	88	93.8	82.0	72.5
7	SWEETHEART DEAL	7	20/1	Front-runner	86	69	83.7	61.5	38.5
10	PRECOCIOUS PEACH	10	4/1	Stalker	93	89	98.3	88.2	85.2
8	WAR STAR	8	7/2	Stalker	94	88	95.6	84.4	78.9
14	SHES ALL WOMAN	14	7/2	Stalker	87	86	62.6	71.4	58.4
2	RICHIES GREAT GIRL	2	3/1	Stalker	86	74	62.0	73.0	55.0
9	TRUE HEIRESS	9	30/1	Alternator/Stalker	88	85	95.4	78.8	64.8
6	DOUBLE MEDAL	6	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	91	81	81.5	84.4	71.4
5	PATTON'S GIRL	5	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	88	84	71.4	76.3	60.3
13	SUNSET EMPIRE	13	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	88	82	50.6	68.8	51.3
4	BRIGHT VENEZUELAN	4	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	85	69	72.0	76.4	61.9
1	SPEED STAR	1	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	90	79	70.6	74.6	55.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

Camarero - Race 2	Pick 6 / Exacta / Daily Double 2-3
Claiming $20,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 59 • Purse: $8,600 • Post: 3:10P
FOR NATIVE FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 16 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 30 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000, FOR EACH $2,000 TO $16,000 2 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. SUGAR FLIGHT is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SUGAR FLIGHT: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Pow er Rating. FANTOSMIA: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CHRISTI'S CROWN: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a l ayoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
2	SUGAR FLIGHT	9/5	5/2
5	FANTOSMIA	6/5	6/1
3	CHRISTI'S CROWN	5/2	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	SUGAR FLIGHT	2	9/5	Front-runner	56	59	95.0	48.0	46.0
5	FANTOSMIA	5	6/5	Stalker	56	57	61.8	50.4	46.9
4	VALID BELLE	4	3/1	Stalker	54	46	51.6	40.0	32.0
3	CHRISTI'S CROWN	3	5/2	Stalker	49	49	51.4	43.2	36.7
1	LINDA SHEREZADE	1	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	41	34	66.8	27.6	18.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 83

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JULY 25, 2020 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $4,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF RACES ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 GALLOWS BAY 2/1
# 5 TWO STEP ALPHA 3/1
# 1 TRUST IN RUSS 4/1

GALLOWS BAY looks like the wager in here. He has been running solidly and the speed figures are among the best in this field. This gelding has a good win percent in dirt sprint races. With Navarro in the saddle guiding him, this gelding should be able to break out sharply in here. TWO STEP ALPHA - Should be carefully examined - I like the figs from the last contest. Has run strongly when racing a dirt sprint race. TRUST IN RUSS - This gelding obviously likes the distance, going 4 for 26 in his races as of late. Earned a reliable speed rating in the last race. Can run another good one in this affair.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #6 - Post: 2:45pm - Maiden Special - 8.2 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $27,500 Class Rating: 78

Rating:

#6 DIAMOND ORE (ML=9/5)


DIAMOND ORE - As long as Camacho keeps this pony off the pace, I have to believe this one could be a huge winner. Ran last time out against a better field at Woodbine. The move to a lower level should suit her well. The last speed rating of 84 is the best last race speed rating in the group.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 ZARELLA (ML=7/2), #1 SCENIC OVERLOOK (ML=4/1), #3 J D'S VISTA (ML=9/2),

ZARELLA - Finished second in her most recent effort with a common speed figure. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this group. SCENIC OVERLOOK - That was simply not a very good display in the last affair. J D'S VISTA - Finished seventh last time. Would have to move up to finish in the money in today's event.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - DIAMOND ORE - When a thoroughbred has the upper hand over the rest of the field in TM Power Rating, I make a bet.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #6 DIAMOND ORE to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Tampa Bay Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.2f on the Dirt. Purse: $27500 Class Rating: 78

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 119 LBS. OR TWO YEAR OLDS UNDER INTERNATIONAL MEDICATION PROTOCOL. HORSES ENTERED TO COMPETE SHALL NOT BE

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 DIAMOND ORE 9/5
# 1 SCENIC OVERLOOK 4/1
# 7 FORBIDDEN DREAM 8/1

DIAMOND ORE looks to be the bet in here. She has put up competitive figures under today's conditions and will almost certainly fare well against this group. Solid gamble today now going off Lasix. Minshall has her trained solidly to break speedily out of the starting gate. SCENIC OVERLOOK - Will probably come out strong - I have liked the way this filly has moved sharply to the front end recently. Could provide positive dividends based on solid recent Equibase Speed Figs with an average of 58. FORBIDDEN DREAM - Is hard not to consider given the company run in recently.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park

12/24/20, GP, Race 4, 1.00 ET
12/24/20,GP,4,1M [Dirt] 1:33:01 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $48,000 (includes up to $7,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $62,500. Three Year Olds, 121 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over Since September 24 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $62,500 (Races Where Entered For $50,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	1	Movie Moxy	3/1	Gaffalione T	Kenneally Eddie	FL	108	39.81	1.48/$1
098.3519	6	Sky Chaser	5/2	Ortiz. Jr. I	Spatz Ronald B.	J	312	21.47	0.71/$1
097.3890	3	Thissmytime	7/2	Zayas E J	O'Connell Kathleen	S	312	21.47	0.71/$1
097.1327	4	Choose Joy	10/1	Vasquez M A	Dwoskin Steven	W	312	21.47	0.71/$1
096.5268	5	Maedean	2/1	Alvarado J	McGaughey III Claude R	TEC	312	21.47	0.71/$1
092.9510	2	Victory Crusade	20/1	Fuentes M	Campos Bernardo		312	21.47	0.71/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 29.63, ROI 0.70/$1
. . . .
100.0000 1 Movie Moxy
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