Monday 12/28/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-28-2020, 06:12 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

December 28, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Northfield Park has a 15-race card scheduled to start at 4:20 EST. The $1.00 Pick 5 goes in Race 2 and due to a carryover there will be a $60,000 guaranteed pool. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 begins in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11

2-McKinley (9-1)-Will take a swing for a price to start the sequence. This is the 3rd start off a judge's scratch and left aggressively from post 8 in last. Comes right back, will look for a good placement off the gate and a well-timed move down the lane.
3-Bobcat Bound (2-1)-This is the 2nd start after a sick scratch and comes off a nice 2nd place finish in the slop from the 8-hole. Off-track record is 2-14 and should be bet hard tonight. Merriman will probably try to wire this field for 1st win in 25 starts.

Race 12

1-Hezabluechipboy N (7/5)-In the last 6 races this 9-year-old has been stuck with post 9 in 5 starts and the other was from post 8. Comes off a big score from post 9 and should be the odds-on choice again. Record in 2020 is only 1-11, so will include one more on the ticket.
2-Tango Star (5/2)-Took the long way around to cash a 3rd place check in 1st start for the Clegg barn. Tango knows how to win and could benefit from a pocket trip. Best to not overlook.

Race 13

2-Tick's A Yankin (5/2)-Steps-up after a dominating win from the 7-hole on a sloppy track. Merriman takes the lines and figures to be in the mix. But could be over bet as off-track record is a perfect 3-3.
5-Lyons Freinds (3-1)-Comes off a good try in last after shipping in from the Meadows. Just missed after being off 2 weeks so will look for a stronger try tonight.
7-Major Escape (7-1)-Faded last time to finish a close 4th but that was in the slop. Off-track record is only 1-15. This will be the 4th straight Nfld start, has the gate speed to be put in play early and should offer a solid price.

Race 14

2-Gary G Force (3-1)-Drops in for a tag and gets a positive driver change. Looks like a player and post draw doesn't hurt chances.
5-Its A Good Thing (5/2)-Two-race win streak was snapped due to a tough trip in last. Gets a new pilot tonight and should be a threat if Kash can work a smooth journey. This 14-year-old could be dialed on high as it will be his last career start.
7-Southwind Terror (9/2)-Usually leaves and gets a good seat but fades down the lane, but now makes a signifcant drop in class. Was claimed on 11/24 for $7,000 and is now for a $5,000 tag. There isn't much gate speed in here so could blast out and look to wire the field.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

2,3/1,2/2,5,7/2,5,7
Total bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-28-2020, 06:24 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mountaineer - Race #3

#6 Cesar Augusto	Made a nice impression in the first local try, and he's not meeting a particularly deep group here. The 6/1 ML price would feel fair as he faces several with long losing streaks.
#8 Brave Stranger	He has mostly produced even efforts, and his best game may come over off tracks, but his two-back run would keep him in the mix with the best in here.
#4 Becoming Smitty	Tough to get too excited about the likely chalk in his 12th lifetime start, but he is pretty reliable compared to most of these and should be able to land another piece.
Race Summary	Cesar Augusto turned in a nice effort when trying the local company for the first time, and he's not out of the question if he can produce something similar here.

Mountaineer - Race #7

#2 Ten Twenty Nine	Looking for an upset here with a guy who has some versatility in running style and was not badly beaten with similar a couple starts back.
#9 Gold Shark	No doubt the one to beat off the easy win with similar last time out, but the price is going to get pretty short, and he doesn't always back up big efforts.
#5 Dream Saturday	Route pace cuts back for this one, and he owns some decent enough back sprint efforts from off the pace. Might be best used underneath.
Race Summary	Ten Twenty Nine will need his very best to handle Gold Shark, but the price will be right to take a shot with a decent tracking trip looming.

Mountaineer - Race #8

#7 Foggy Kitten	Speed never got involved last time out, but with a better getaway at this 6f trip, she may be able to control the tempo from the go.
#4 Sharpin	Likely fave and short price looks tough to beat here, and she had the unlucky fortune of running into a super tough local runner last time out.
#5 Leading Indicator	She's probably capable of something better than she showed last time out, and she has the positional pace to work out another good trip near the top.
Race Summary	Foggy Kitten is sort of all or nothing, but she can be a forward factor here at a price after a no-show effort last time out.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-28-2020, 06:25 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Mahoning Valley - Race #1

#4 Trust in Me	Made a strong move for third last out and gets enough of a pace to enhance his late run here; should be a good price.
#1 I'm Feeling Lucky	Was second on this strip two back and in between won a muddy allowance at Mountaineer; in mostly good form this year and can dig in.
#5 Itsallaboutmememe	Has run well lately and drops out of a longer race; has enough speed to stay in range and should have something for the drive.
Race Summary	Trust in Me is a step under conditions but is running well and can make a run at these late in the game.

Mahoning Valley - Race #2

#4 Sayso	Had a good season at Woodbine and has the late energy to be up in time vs. this group.
#8 Paynterbynumbers	Is bred for front-end speed going long and displayed that nicely last out at Laurel, when she was never challenged; tough if she can run back to that one.
#6 Little Matilda	Lost a photo at a claiming price last out and can be close to the action throughout.
Race Summary	Sayso has a decent late move on occasion and should get a sufficient pace to chase.

Mahoning Valley - Race #4

#2 Sterling Hope	Held fourth in his first over this strip and has taken on talented rivals; can improve for the win today.
#1 Disciple	Broke his maiden last out at Mountaineer and can be in the mix from the outset.
#3 Fahrenheit	Held on for third in a similar spot last out and could have the rally to be effective.
Race Summary	Sterling Hope lacked some late pop last time and can move up in his second over the strip.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-28-2020, 08:28 AM

Ben Burns - SOCCER - Mon, Dec 28 at 3:00 PM
Ben's TOP FREE EPL Play!

Manchester City vs Everton
Manchester City -200 (BetOnline)

Yes, Man. City is a fairly heavy favorite. However, this game should go only one way and the line could easily be even higher. Both teams won on Boxing Day but City looked far more impressive. Indeed, the Toffees struggled to get past lowly Sheffield. A 4-0 win by Everton back in Jan. 2017 seems like a long time ago. City has won five straight in the series, winning by a combined score of 13-4. Hitting its stride, expect Man. City to make it six straight on Sunday afternoon.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-28-2020, 08:29 AM

Sean Murphy - NBA - Mon, Dec 28 at 7:35 PM
Sean Murphy's Monday NBA Winner

Detroit Pistons vs Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks -9 (-108) (BetAnySports)

Monday NBA Free play. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Monday. We've won with the Hawks in each of their first two games and there's little reason to abandon our thinking that they could be poised for a breakout season as they return home to host the Pistons on Monday night. While we're being asked to lay plenty of points in this matchup, I believe the line is warranted. Atlanta couldn't be much hotter out of the gates, fresh off double-digit wins over the Bulls and Grizzlies. The Hawks early schedule is admittedly soft but that's of little consequence. You can only play the teams in front of you. Detroit has dropped its first two games, including a double-overtime loss to the Cavs last time out. With a roster that includes aging and oft-injured former starts Blake Griffin and Derrick Rose and a cast of characters that would round out most benches rather than starting lineups, there's little reason for optimism in Detroit. Look for the Hawks to continue their surge. Take Atlanta (8*).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-28-2020, 08:30 AM

Al McMordie - NCAAB - Mon, Dec 28 at 8:00 PM
Big Al's Free Michigan State/Minnesota Winner

Michigan State vs Minnesota
Michigan State -2.5 (-111) (BookMaker)

At 8 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Michigan State Spartans minus the points over Minnesota. The Spartans are off to an uncharacteristic 0-2 start this season in Big 10 Conference play. But MSU is a sensational 70-37 ATS in Big 10 games when it didn't have a winning Conference record. Lay the points with the Spartans to get back on track tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-28-2020, 08:30 AM

Oskeim Sports - NFL - Mon, Dec 28 at 8:15 PM
OSKEIM SPORTS' FREE MONDAY NIGHT WINNER

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
Buffalo Bills -7 (-105) (BetAnySports)

The Bills clinched home-field advantage in the wild-card round of the playoffs but still have plenty to play for as they remain mathematically alive for the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye. In contrast, New England has been eliminated from the playoff race and will be home for the postseason for the first time since 2008. The Bills offense should have success moving the chains against a subpar New England defense that is ranked 23rd in the league in Total DVOA and 32nd in rush DVOA. Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen has eclipsed 300 passing yards in seven games this season and will pick apart a soft New England secondary that is missing Stephon Gilmore (foot), last year's defensive player of the year. Allen's counterpart, Cam Newton, is averaging a woeful 4.6 yards per pass attempt since November and has not been the answer Bill Belichick was hoping for after Tom Brady left for Tampa Bay. From a technical standpoint, Buffalo has covered the point spread in four consecutive games and is a profitable 11-4-2 ATS in its last seventeen road affairs. Since September 18, 1994, the Bills are 13-0-2 ATS in road affairs following a road game in which they gained 22 or more first downs. Lay the points with Buffalo as Oskeim Sports' Free Monday Night Football Winner!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-28-2020, 08:30 AM

Jim Feist - NFL - Mon, Dec 28 at 8:15 PM
Jim Feist's FREE NFL Winner, Monday, Dec 28

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Under 46.5 (-115) (BookMaker)

Reason: The Buffalo Bills clinched their first AFC East Title since 1995 with their win last week. They are now 11-3 and can still pick up the No 2 seed in the playoffs. The New England Patriots are hearing words they and their fans are not used to hear, they have been eliminated from the playoffs. In all the years that Tom Brady was in New England, they failed to make the playoffs just once and that was because Brady was hurt. Cam Newton should play tonight, despite the fact they have failed to score an offensive TD in the last two weeks. Wouldn't be surprised to see Jarrett Stidham at some point in this game or next. The Bills have everything to play for while the Patriots have nothing. The Bills have momentum with four straight wins and the motivation of kicking the Pats behinds. Considering the stagnant offense of New England coupled with an above average Bills defense, your free play will be on the UNDER.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-28-2020, 08:31 AM

Will Rogers - NFL - Mon, Dec 28 at 8:15 PM
Will's TOP NFL Free Play!

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Over 22.5 (-120) (BetOnline)

The set-up: The Pats have lost three of their last five games and they've now been officially eliminated from playoff contention. The Bills have won the division and they're now trying to cement a better playoff spot. The Bills will be motivated here to destroy their most hated rival on its own field and complete the season sweep of the Patriots. Cam Newton will be looking to avenge the earlier loss and try to pad his resume for a job next season. Situationally in my opinion, this one definitely sets up as a "shootout." The pick: The Bills average 29.1 PPG, but they also concede 24.3, so Newton will have some opportunities to put some points on the baord today. Buffalo though has averaged a whopping 33.7 PPG over its last four, which could spell trouble for this "on again, off again" Patriots secondary. I look for each team to come out firing in the first half. This is a 1* FREE PLAY on the "over" in the FIRST HALF.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-28-2020, 08:38 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing

Parx Racing - Race 8	Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10) / Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta 10 cent Superfecta
Allowance • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $35,000 • Post: 3:34P
FOR REGISTERED PA-BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON ONE PA-RESTRICTED RACE(S) OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 28 ALLOWED 3 LBS. (CLAIMING RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Stalker. CRAZY BEA is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CRAZY BEA: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LADY MUNNINGS: Hor se ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. SUNDAY INN: Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
8	CRAZY BEA	9/5	9/2
2	LADY MUNNINGS	5/1	5/1
7	SUNDAY INN	6/1	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	CONGRATS ANSWER	3	12/1	Front-runner	68	72	63.4	66.0	53.0
8	CRAZY BEA	8	9/5	Stalker	85	77	66.2	76.6	70.6
2	LADY MUNNINGS	2	5/1	Stalker	78	84	63.6	73.6	68.6
7	SUNDAY INN	7	6/1	Stalker	78	79	55.8	72.0	65.0
1	ROLLS ROYCE JOYCE	1	6/1	Trailer	76	74	62.0	71.0	60.0
4	KEY LIGHT	4	7/2	Trailer	83	77	35.4	73.8	66.3
6	LUCKY IMAGINATION	6	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	71	69	50.1	64.9	52.9
5	JUSTIN TIME	5	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	78	71	15.2	66.4	56.4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-28-2020, 08:39 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mahoning Valley Race Course

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 8	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta 20 Cent High Five - 70% Carryover
Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 45 • Purse: $27,500 • Post: 4:02P
FOR ACCREDITED OHIO BRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. KITTENS ADAIR is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * KITTENS ADAIR: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
2	KITTENS ADAIR	9/5	5/2

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
9	ADMIRAL GLEN	9	6/1	Front-runner	40	21	55.4	22.6	11.6
2	KITTENS ADAIR	2	9/5	Alternator/Front-runner	51	42	65.0	37.8	35.3
3	BRILLIANTBENNY	3	9/2	Alternator/Front-runner	39	38	31.2	31.8	23.8
5	BIG PERFORMER	5	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	55	45	37.8	27.0	20.0
4	FAMILY JET	4	4/1	Alternator/Trailer	48	36	16.6	33.2	26.7
8	DIAL MR PROSPECTOR	8	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	42	31	41.0	21.6	11.6
6	BELLS LAST STRIKE	6	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	3.6	21.7	10.2
1	I'M THE NAVIGATOR	1	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: CALL ME QUICK (10/1) [Jockey: Smith Diogdinabi - Trainer: Barnes Bart A].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-28-2020, 08:40 AM

Tony Finn

Event: (831) Maryland at (832) Wisconsin
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: December 28, 2020 7PM EST
Play: Maryland +9.5 (-110)
The Terrapins have dropped their first two conference games after a hard-fought losing effort against Purdue on Saturday. The Badgers are 8-1 on the season and 2-0 in conference play. Wisconsin should be drinking their own Koolaide before this Monday night game after moving up into the Top 10 of the national rankings on Sunday.
You'll read how the Badgers are the chit. You will find column after column of how their Top-10 ranking is justified. You might even have some who attempt to sell you that this Badgers group has defeated a handful of ranked opponents. The Badgers have defeated not a single ranked foe. Not unless you consider Michigan State ranked. If so, they have one victory over a ranked foe.
Marquette is not ranked, but then again, that is a game that Whiskey lost. Louisville may have been ranked in the Top 25 when they lost to Whiskey, but they didn't deserve that ranking then and don't now.
Don't sleep on the Terps. They are athletic and can play a physical brand of ball without being pushed around. The bottom line is that getting 10 points and a Maryland team that doesn't turn the ball over and still defends is a rare combination and qualities. The play is taking the points and the Terps on Monday night.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-28-2020, 08:41 AM

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Buffalo Bills clinched the AFC East on Saturday against the Denver Broncos, while the Patriots lost in Miami on Sunday to go 6-8 SU, officially snapping their consecutive streak of making the playoffs at 11 seasons. The Bills won 24-21 in Week 8 in the first meeting, although the Patriots did grab the cover. We'll find out a lot about the Patriots on Monday, as they play their first game with nothing actually at stake except for pride. One thing has been very consistent for the Patriots lately, as the 'under' has hit in six in a row.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-28-2020, 08:42 AM

Bills at Patriots Odds
Opening line
Bills -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
This game certainly has playoff seeding implications, but only for Buffalo, as New England was officially eliminated from postseason contention in Sunday's 22-12 loss at Miami. Meanwhile, Buffalo boatraced Denver 48-19 in a Week 15 Saturday night affair.

"It is funny to see the Bills laying -6.5 on the road against the Patriots, but that’s where we are right now," Murray said of a line that remains -6.5 late Sunday night. "The Bills are the new class of the division with the franchise QB (Josh Allen), and the Patriots will have to rebuild. I’d say the Patriots had a decent run. The books will be pulling for the Patriots in a big way next Monday night."