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NFL(Bob Balfe)
8:15 PM EST
Rotation #462
Raiders +3 over Dolphins
There was no Hawaii Bowl this year, but this could be it as Tua Tagovailoa starts for the Dolphins and Marcus Mariota could get the start for the Raiders. It might not be a big deal to us, but people in Hawaii are pumped for this game! The Dolphins are the best team in the NFL against the spread and if you bet them since the middle of last year every game you would be 20-6. This team has been cashing big time tickets and all the money in the world is on the today, but they have some serious offensive issues. The Raiders Defense is weak, but Miami is down so many offensive starters and Tua is still a rookie. 60 minutes is a long time and over the course of that time the Raiders will put up offensive points. I am just not convinced Miami can do it. The Dolphins are also a little banged up on the offensive line. Vegas needs a miracle to make the playoffs, but at the very least they want to take teams down with them and you are never eliminated until you are officially eliminated. I love what the Dolphins have been doing on defense, but I don’t think their offense will do enough to get a road win. Take Las Vegas.
Game: (285) UL Lafayette at (286) UTSA Date/Time: Dec 26 2020 3:30 PM EST Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line Play Rating: 4% Play: UTSA +14.0 (-110)
Motivation could be an issue for Louisiana after the Ragin' Cajuns were denied the opportunity to take on undefeated Coastal Carolina in the Sun Belt Conference championship game (canceled due to COVID-19-related issues). Head coach Billy Napier lobbied for a bowl rematch with the Chanticleers but those efforts failed, leaving Louisiana to play UTSA in the First Responder Bowl.
Meanwhile, the Roadrunners are playing in their first bowl game since 2016 and just the second in team history. The motivational edge strongly favors UTSA in this game as the Ragin' Cajuns desperately wanted an opportunity to avenge their earlier loss to Coastal Carolina but instead are playing in a minor bowl game will little to no fanfare.
UTSA is one of the most underrated teams in the nation as the Roadrunners were extremely competitive against top-level opposition this season:
21-13 loss to UAB as a 21.5 point underdog
27-20 loss to BYU as a 34 point underdog
Upset Louisiana Tech 27-26 as a 2.5 point underdog
Eight of eleven of UTSA's games this season have been one-score games in the fourth quarter, further evidencing how competitive head coach Jeff Traylor's squad has been in 2020.
The Roadrunners' attack is led by star running back Sincere McCormick, who leads Conference USA and ranks second in the nation with a school-record 1,345 yards rushing and 11 touchdowns. McCormick has 31 runs of ten yards or more, including 16 of 20-plus yards (four of 50-plus yards). McCormick has gained 748 yards after contact this season and finished the regular season strong, rushing for a school-record 251 yards in the Roadrunners' 49-17 win over North Texas as one-point favorites.
UTSA won its final three games to become bowl eligible and limited opponents to an average of just 23 points in its final eight games. Finally, the Roadrunners apply to a very good 37-12 ATS statistical profile indicator of mine that invests on certain neutral field underdogs with above-average rushing attacks. Finally, Louisiana could be distracted by the rumors involving coach Nappier, whose name has been floated in connection with the Auburn job.
With UTSA standing at 6-1 ATS in its last seven non-conference affairs, 9-3 ATS in its last twelve games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in its previous six games versus .501 or greater opposition, grab the points with the Roadrunners and invest with confidence.
Game: (287) Western Kentucky at (288) Georgia State Date/Time: Dec 26 2020 3:30 PM EST Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line Play Rating: 4% Play: Western Kentucky +4.0 (-110)
My math model only favors Georgia State by 0.97 points in this game and the Hilltoppers are 39-19 ATS in their last 58 games as underdogs, 8-2-1 ATS in their last eleven games following a win, and 5-1-1 ATS in their previous seven December affairs. Western Kentucky is a profitable 13-1 ATS in its last fourteen games as underdogs versus Sun Belt Conference foes and 4-1 SU in its last five bowl games under head coach Tyson Helton. Let's also note that Georgia State is a money-burning 3-9 ATS as a favorite versus .499 or worse opposition and 1-4 ATS in its previous five December clashes.
Western Kentucky's success is predicated on a stout defense that is allowing 5.0 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yards per play against a mediocre stop unit. The Hilltoppers' defense is ranked in the Top 25 nationally in yards per game allowed (336.3), and passing yards per game allowed (170.1). Georgia State's pedestrian attack (5.7 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yards per play to a mediocre offense) will struggle to move the chains in this game and quarterback Cornelious Bennett IV is turnover prone (9 interceptions).
Bennett threw for over 300 yards in each of the Panthers' final two regular-season games but he also tallied a 1-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio in those contests. Motivation will be high for Western Kentucky's seniors, who remember getting drilled by this same Georgia State team in the 2017 Cure Bowl. Finally, Western Kentucky quarterback Tyrell Pigrome, a Maryland transfer, is the only FBS player with more than 81 pass attempts who hasn't thrown an interception this season. Pigrome is also capable of moving the chains with his feet, rushing for 328 yards and three touchdowns during the 2020 campaign.
Grab the inflated number with Western Kentucky and invest with confidence.
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