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College football bowls best bets: Picks for the biggest games
Doug Kezirian, Bill Connelly, Preston Johnson, David M. Hale and Seth Walder provide their best bets for some of this season's bowl games. More games will be added as bowls approach.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
Duke's Mayo Bowl
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Wisconsin Badgers (-7, 51.5), noon ET, Wednesday (on ESPN)
Hale: There was no more consistently overrated team this year than Wisconsin -- both by the pollsters and the bettors. After opening the year 2-0 with wins over Illinois and (as it turned out) a woeful Michigan, the supposedly strong Wisconsin offense evaporated, failing to top 7 points in three straight losses before narrowly avoiding an upset at home against Minnesota. After completing 20-of-21 passes in the opener, Graham Mertz has been awful, completing just 56% of his throws and averaging 5.5 yards per pass. He hasn't thrown a TD in his last three games. Overall, Wisconsin has gone four straight without a cover (all by at least a TD).
On the flip side, Wake Forest has consistently been among the most undervalued teams this season, finishing the regular season 6-2 against the spread, including a 3-0 mark as an underdog. Wake is 3-1 in bowl games under Dave Clawson, too, with the lone loss coming in a one-possession game against Michigan State last year. In fact, the Deacons have just four drives total in their last four bowl games in which they trailed by 8 or more. Wake also had its senior day swiped at the last minute with Florida State's cancellation of their scheduled Dec. 18 matchup, which has turned the bowl game into something legitimately meaningful for the team.
All of that adds up to what could easily be an outright Wake win, and a game we're happy to take the points.
Pick: Wake Forest +7
Connelly: Both the stats and eyeballs have had trouble figuring out Wisconsin. The Badgers looked like national-title contenders in their first two games of the season then scored a total of 20 points in their next three. Because SP+ liked UW so much in the preseason projections, it still thinks pretty highly of them and gives them a 14.5-point advantage in this one.
Wake was on a run of overachievement for a while, winning four straight then narrowly losing to UNC. But the Deacs have played only one game since Nov. 14 -- a 24-point drubbing of a loss at Louisville -- and in the end, there's only one reliably good unit in this game: Wisconsin's defense. Even if the Badgers don't win by 14+, we'll say the D alone makes them likely to win by more than a touchdown.
Pick: Wisconsin -7
Offerpad Arizona Bowl
Ball State Cardinals vs. No. 22 San Jose State Spartans (-9.5, 64), 2 p.m. ET, Thursday (on CBSSN)
Connelly: SJSU was one of the happiest stories of the fall, and the odds are pretty good that the Spartans will win the Arizona Bowl and finish unbeaten. But 9.5 points is a significant advantage considering both how one-dimensional their offense is (they can't run) and how efficient Ball State's offense is.
Granted, the Cardinals will be without running back Caleb Huntley, but backup Tye Evans is tough to bring down (he averages more yards after contact than Huntley), and quarterback Drew Plitt pilots one of the better quick-hitting passing games SJSU has seen. Receiver Justin Hall takes short passes long distances, and while BSU is a deserving underdog, SP+ projects a 6-point advantage for SJSU, not 9.5.
Pick: Ball State +9.5
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
No. 8 Cincinnati Bearcats vs. No. 9 Georgia Bulldogs (-7, 50), noon ET, Friday (on ESPN)
Kezirian: We have seen these types of bowl matchups in recent years. One team has a chip on its shoulder, and another team essentially goes through the motions. The Bearcats are undefeated and feel snubbed by the CFP committee. Here is their chance to demonstrate their worth against an SEC opponent. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have seen some key players decide to miss the game, opting to focus on the NFL draft. UC has a solid defense, and I believe the stark contrast in desire will keep this within the number.
Pick: Cincinnati +7
Vrbo Citrus Bowl
Auburn Tigers vs. No. 14 Northwestern Wildcats (-3.5, 43.5), 1 p.m. ET, Friday (on ABC)
Walder: There's no question that Northwestern has played better this season. The Wildcats rank 16th in total efficiency -- which is expected points added per play adjusted for quality of opponent and garbage time -- while the Tigers sit 30th. And Northwestern's best unit is its defense, which is the most predictive of future success. So why does FPI not only like Auburn against the spread, but straight up? The prior.
Here's the thing: The preseason prior is extra important this year. Normally come bowl season we'd have 12 or 13 games of information on each of these teams. But because they've played only 10 and eight games, respectively, the prior hasn't decayed as much. And rightfully so! It's fair to hold the skepticism of Northwestern you might have for its ninth game now, which is why FPI now prefers Auburn -- which it thought was the eighth-best team in the preseason.
Pick: Auburn +3.5
College Football Playoff Semifinal at The Rose Bowl Game Presented by Capital One
No. 4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-19.5, 65.5), 4 p.m. ET, Friday (on ESPN)
Kezirian: It takes a strong stomach to fade Alabama, but if I am going to do it, I need a lot of points and a solid team. That's what I have with the Irish. They were dismantled by Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, but I am viewing that as an atypical performance. Notre Dame still has a quality offense, and the defense is good enough to force a punt or two before halftime. I say that because Bama's offense is just that good. The fourth quarter is certainly a significant element, because if Nick Saban has a comfortable lead, he will look to grind clock and preserve his players' health for the national title game. We saw a similar situation two years ago when the Tide jumped out on Oklahoma 28-0 and entered halftime with a 31-10 lead. Bama scored only 14 more points. The backdoor will be wide open, but I also think Notre Dame has the horses to hang around the entire way.
Pick: Notre Dame +19.5
Doug Kezirian, Bill Connelly, Preston Johnson, David M. Hale and Seth Walder provide their best bets for some of this season's bowl games. More games will be added as bowls approach.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
Duke's Mayo Bowl
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Wisconsin Badgers (-7, 51.5), noon ET, Wednesday (on ESPN)
Hale: There was no more consistently overrated team this year than Wisconsin -- both by the pollsters and the bettors. After opening the year 2-0 with wins over Illinois and (as it turned out) a woeful Michigan, the supposedly strong Wisconsin offense evaporated, failing to top 7 points in three straight losses before narrowly avoiding an upset at home against Minnesota. After completing 20-of-21 passes in the opener, Graham Mertz has been awful, completing just 56% of his throws and averaging 5.5 yards per pass. He hasn't thrown a TD in his last three games. Overall, Wisconsin has gone four straight without a cover (all by at least a TD).
On the flip side, Wake Forest has consistently been among the most undervalued teams this season, finishing the regular season 6-2 against the spread, including a 3-0 mark as an underdog. Wake is 3-1 in bowl games under Dave Clawson, too, with the lone loss coming in a one-possession game against Michigan State last year. In fact, the Deacons have just four drives total in their last four bowl games in which they trailed by 8 or more. Wake also had its senior day swiped at the last minute with Florida State's cancellation of their scheduled Dec. 18 matchup, which has turned the bowl game into something legitimately meaningful for the team.
All of that adds up to what could easily be an outright Wake win, and a game we're happy to take the points.
Pick: Wake Forest +7
Connelly: Both the stats and eyeballs have had trouble figuring out Wisconsin. The Badgers looked like national-title contenders in their first two games of the season then scored a total of 20 points in their next three. Because SP+ liked UW so much in the preseason projections, it still thinks pretty highly of them and gives them a 14.5-point advantage in this one.
Wake was on a run of overachievement for a while, winning four straight then narrowly losing to UNC. But the Deacs have played only one game since Nov. 14 -- a 24-point drubbing of a loss at Louisville -- and in the end, there's only one reliably good unit in this game: Wisconsin's defense. Even if the Badgers don't win by 14+, we'll say the D alone makes them likely to win by more than a touchdown.
Pick: Wisconsin -7
Offerpad Arizona Bowl
Ball State Cardinals vs. No. 22 San Jose State Spartans (-9.5, 64), 2 p.m. ET, Thursday (on CBSSN)
Connelly: SJSU was one of the happiest stories of the fall, and the odds are pretty good that the Spartans will win the Arizona Bowl and finish unbeaten. But 9.5 points is a significant advantage considering both how one-dimensional their offense is (they can't run) and how efficient Ball State's offense is.
Granted, the Cardinals will be without running back Caleb Huntley, but backup Tye Evans is tough to bring down (he averages more yards after contact than Huntley), and quarterback Drew Plitt pilots one of the better quick-hitting passing games SJSU has seen. Receiver Justin Hall takes short passes long distances, and while BSU is a deserving underdog, SP+ projects a 6-point advantage for SJSU, not 9.5.
Pick: Ball State +9.5
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
No. 8 Cincinnati Bearcats vs. No. 9 Georgia Bulldogs (-7, 50), noon ET, Friday (on ESPN)
Kezirian: We have seen these types of bowl matchups in recent years. One team has a chip on its shoulder, and another team essentially goes through the motions. The Bearcats are undefeated and feel snubbed by the CFP committee. Here is their chance to demonstrate their worth against an SEC opponent. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have seen some key players decide to miss the game, opting to focus on the NFL draft. UC has a solid defense, and I believe the stark contrast in desire will keep this within the number.
Pick: Cincinnati +7
Vrbo Citrus Bowl
Auburn Tigers vs. No. 14 Northwestern Wildcats (-3.5, 43.5), 1 p.m. ET, Friday (on ABC)
Walder: There's no question that Northwestern has played better this season. The Wildcats rank 16th in total efficiency -- which is expected points added per play adjusted for quality of opponent and garbage time -- while the Tigers sit 30th. And Northwestern's best unit is its defense, which is the most predictive of future success. So why does FPI not only like Auburn against the spread, but straight up? The prior.
Here's the thing: The preseason prior is extra important this year. Normally come bowl season we'd have 12 or 13 games of information on each of these teams. But because they've played only 10 and eight games, respectively, the prior hasn't decayed as much. And rightfully so! It's fair to hold the skepticism of Northwestern you might have for its ninth game now, which is why FPI now prefers Auburn -- which it thought was the eighth-best team in the preseason.
Pick: Auburn +3.5
College Football Playoff Semifinal at The Rose Bowl Game Presented by Capital One
No. 4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-19.5, 65.5), 4 p.m. ET, Friday (on ESPN)
Kezirian: It takes a strong stomach to fade Alabama, but if I am going to do it, I need a lot of points and a solid team. That's what I have with the Irish. They were dismantled by Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, but I am viewing that as an atypical performance. Notre Dame still has a quality offense, and the defense is good enough to force a punt or two before halftime. I say that because Bama's offense is just that good. The fourth quarter is certainly a significant element, because if Nick Saban has a comfortable lead, he will look to grind clock and preserve his players' health for the national title game. We saw a similar situation two years ago when the Tide jumped out on Oklahoma 28-0 and entered halftime with a 31-10 lead. Bama scored only 14 more points. The backdoor will be wide open, but I also think Notre Dame has the horses to hang around the entire way.
Pick: Notre Dame +19.5
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