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King Creole ARIZONA BOWL
San Jose State Spartans vs Ball State Falcons
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
Thursday, Jan. 31st / 2:00pm ET / 11:00am PT / #321-322
*Optimum OU line: 64 or more points…
We’re Going LOW in Thursday’s Arizona Bowl as the Mountain West Champion San Jose State Spartans cap off their best season EVER by taking on the MAC Champion Ball State Cardinals. We’re getting some solid VALUE when it comes to the OU line for this one. At the current line of 64 points, there’s plenty of Meat on the Bone for UNDER bettors. A line this high might be justified if it were a regular season ‘MAC vs MAC’ game (in which the OU line is usually in the range of 64 - 70 points). But not in a MAC Bowl game. In fact, MAC Bowl games have averaged only 52.3 combined points per game when they are installed as underdogs. We also know that Ball State has gone 0-3 OU in their last there Bowl games… and a perfect 0-6 O/U in their last six Neutral Site games. Based on the pointspread and OU line, the predicted final score in this game is San Jose State 37.0 - Ball State 27.0. Our database models project that the Cardinals won’t even get to 24 points in this one. And that falls right into line with what the great San Jose State defense has done this year. In their greatest regular season EVER, the Spartans come in with a Top 20 defense… that’s allowed only 17.9 points per game (2nd best in the Mountain West next to San Diego State’s 17.8 ppg allowed). Not only that, but San Jose State hasn’t allowed ANY team to eclipse 24 or more points this year. So it’s no surprise that the Spartans come in tied as the 2nd best UNDER tram in all of College Football (Northwestern 1-7 O/U… San Jose State, San Diego State, Nebraska 1-6 O/U. In their final five games of the season, the average OU margin in Spartan games has been -7.2 ppg (0-5 O/U). On the flip side, the Cardinals of Ball State are no strangers to LOW-scoring results either. In fact, they closed the year with UNDERS in 4 of their last five games (avg margin: -7.7 ppg). In the last five years of the ARIZONA BOWL, the average combined points per game has been just 49.4. Database simulations point to a final score more like this: San Jose State Spartans 34 - Ball State Cardinals 20…
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