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OSKEIM SPORT
Game: (333) Ohio State at (334) Clemson
Date/Time: Jan 1 2021 8:45 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Ohio State +7.5 (-115)
My math model only favors Clemson by 1.39 points in this game and the Buckeyes are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games as underdogs, including 5-2 ATS in bowl affairs. The Buckeyes are a profitable 14-3 ATS as underdogs since 2009, the best cover percentage in such games during that span (minimum 5 games). The last time Ohio State was an underdog of at least 7.5 points was in the 2014 College Football Playoff semifinal against Alabama and the Buckeyes won that game outright.
The Buckeyes are being heavily discounted in the betting market because they only played six games (6-0) after the Big Ten Conference reversed its decision to not play football. However, Ohio State was dominant throughout the regular seasons, scoring fewer than 38 points just once and securing another Big Ten championship. Starting quarterback Justin Fields has been phenomenal in his second season (1,407 yards, 15 touchdowns, three interceptions, 78% completions) and should have success against a young Clemson secondary that has struggled in standard down situations (where the offense can either run or pass).
In fact, Clemson's defensive backfield ranks in the bottom quarter nationally in standard down situations. Moreover, safeties Nolan Turner, Lannnden Zanders and Joseph Charleston struggle mightily when lined up as primary cover men, allowing more than 14.1 yards per completion and 8.5 yards per attempt. Fields has been overshadowed by Trevor Lawrence and Mac Jones but boasts elite metrics:
Fields vs. Jones, Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Kyle Trask & Ian Book
1st in situational spots (i.e. third downs, red zone). 71% third-down completion rate, 68% red zone completion rate
2nd in rushing. 47 rushing yards per game from scramble (8.2 per carry), 23% non-sack carries gaining 5-plus yards, 70% completion rate outside the pocket
3rd in vertical passing. 3.0 per game, 73% completion rate, 27.2 yards per pass, 5-1 TD-INT, 99.9 raw QBR
Fields is fourth in the country in completion percentage and leads the Big Ten Conference in quarterback rating. The Georgia transfer is protected by five offensive linemen who weigh 310 pounds or more and paved the way for the conference's leading rushing attack. Fields was outstanding in last year's CFP semifinal against Clemson, completing 30 of 46 passes for 320 yards with one touchdown.
From a technical standpoint, Big Ten teams are a profitable 33-24 ATS in bowl affairs, including 14-10-1 ATS in their last 25 New Year's Six bowl games. Big Ten bowl underdogs are 19-5-1 ATS in their last 25 clashes with ACC opponents. Finally, motivation won't be an issue for Ohio State after being installed as a 7-plus point underdog for the first time in nearly ten years, a fact that is not lost on the players and coaches alike.
Add to that the fact that Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney provided bulletin-board material for the Buckeyes by listing Ohio State at No. 11 in his final coaches poll ballot. Grab the points and invest with confidence.
Money line Investment: I recommend placing a much smaller wager on the money line as the outright winner in bowl games between the ACC and Big Ten are on an 18-0-1 ATS streak.
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Dave Cokin
5% Cincinnati +7Comment
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Seth Walder
Auburn +3.5Comment
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Dave Essler
3* GOY
Cincinnati +7Comment
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OSKEIM SPORT
Game: (333) Ohio State at (334) Clemson
Date/Time: Jan 1 2021 8:45 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Ohio State +7.5 (-115)
My math model only favors Clemson by 1.39 points in this game and the Buckeyes are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games as underdogs, including 5-2 ATS in bowl affairs. The Buckeyes are a profitable 14-3 ATS as underdogs since 2009, the best cover percentage in such games during that span (minimum 5 games). The last time Ohio State was an underdog of at least 7.5 points was in the 2014 College Football Playoff semifinal against Alabama and the Buckeyes won that game outright.
The Buckeyes are being heavily discounted in the betting market because they only played six games (6-0) after the Big Ten Conference reversed its decision to not play football. However, Ohio State was dominant throughout the regular seasons, scoring fewer than 38 points just once and securing another Big Ten championship. Starting quarterback Justin Fields has been phenomenal in his second season (1,407 yards, 15 touchdowns, three interceptions, 78% completions) and should have success against a young Clemson secondary that has struggled in standard down situations (where the offense can either run or pass).
In fact, Clemson's defensive backfield ranks in the bottom quarter nationally in standard down situations. Moreover, safeties Nolan Turner, Lannnden Zanders and Joseph Charleston struggle mightily when lined up as primary cover men, allowing more than 14.1 yards per completion and 8.5 yards per attempt. Fields has been overshadowed by Trevor Lawrence and Mac Jones but boasts elite metrics:
Fields vs. Jones, Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Kyle Trask & Ian Book
1st in situational spots (i.e. third downs, red zone). 71% third-down completion rate, 68% red zone completion rate
2nd in rushing. 47 rushing yards per game from scramble (8.2 per carry), 23% non-sack carries gaining 5-plus yards, 70% completion rate outside the pocket
3rd in vertical passing. 3.0 per game, 73% completion rate, 27.2 yards per pass, 5-1 TD-INT, 99.9 raw QBR
Fields is fourth in the country in completion percentage and leads the Big Ten Conference in quarterback rating. The Georgia transfer is protected by five offensive linemen who weigh 310 pounds or more and paved the way for the conference's leading rushing attack. Fields was outstanding in last year's CFP semifinal against Clemson, completing 30 of 46 passes for 320 yards with one touchdown.
From a technical standpoint, Big Ten teams are a profitable 33-24 ATS in bowl affairs, including 14-10-1 ATS in their last 25 New Year's Six bowl games. Big Ten bowl underdogs are 19-5-1 ATS in their last 25 clashes with ACC opponents. Finally, motivation won't be an issue for Ohio State after being installed as a 7-plus point underdog for the first time in nearly ten years, a fact that is not lost on the players and coaches alike.
Add to that the fact that Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney provided bulletin-board material for the Buckeyes by listing Ohio State at No. 11 in his final coaches poll ballot. Grab the points and invest with confidence.
Money line Investment: I recommend placing a much smaller wager on the money line as the outright winner in bowl games between the ACC and Big Ten are on an 18-0-1 ATS streak.
Game: (327) Cincinnati at (328) Georgia
Date/Time: Jan 1 2021 12:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Cincinnati +7.0 (-110)
Motivation will not be an issue for Cincinnati, who finished No. 8 in this year's rankings despite having one of the best resumes of any Group of 5 school in BCS/College Football Playoff history. The Bearcats defeated then-No. 22 Army, No. 16 SMU and No. 23 Tulsa this season but were never elevated higher than No. 7 after the initial rankings.
The Bearcats will take the field with a major chip on their shoulder after being snubbed by the CFP committee and will be eager to show the country how good they are against a Power 5 school from the SEC. Cincinnati is a profitable 4-0 ATS in its last four games as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in its previous five non-conference affairs.
Georgia has had a plethora of opt-outs for the bowl game, including three seniors in linebacker Monty Rice, tight end Tre' McKitty and cornerback DJ Daniel. Other significant opt-outs include linebacker Azeez Ojulari (sack leader), cornerback Eric Stokes (interception leader), linebacker Monty Rice (2nd in tackles), linebacker Jermaine Johnson (3rd in sacks) and right guard Ben Cleveland, the Bulldogs' best offensive lineman. Cornerback Mark Webb, who plays the STAR position, has also opted out and there's always the possibility of other opt-outs prior to kick-off on Friday.
Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder was named AAC Offensive Player of the Year after running for 609 yards with 12 touchdowns and completing 66.4% of his passes for 2,090 yards with 17 scores and six interceptions. Ridder has been extremely efficient since Cincinnati's blowout victory over SMU on October 24 and is one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation.
The Bearcats possess an elite defense that is ranked in the top 10 nationally in points allowed, yards per play allowed, yards per rush allowed, interceptions per pass attempt and red zone touchdown percentage allowed. Cincinnati is ranked No. 7 in the country in defensive efficiency and held its AAC opponents to fifteen points per game - in a conference in which teams averaged 31.2 points per game.
The Bearcats defense has allowed only 13 touchdowns in eight games, the fewest of any team with eight or more games. Cincinnati's backfield consists of some of the best playmakers in college football, including cornerbacks Ahmad Gardner and Coby Bryant, and linebackers Jarell White and Darrian Beavers. Cincinnati held opponents to 139 yards per game below their season average and recorded 27 sacks along the way.
Finally, my math model only favors Georgia by 5.91 points in this game and that's before some of the opt-outs listed above were announced. The line value squarely favors Cincinnati and the Bearcats have all the motivation to prove the CFP committee wrong. Grab the points and invest with confidence.Comment
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Ben Burns
BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR
Ohio State +8Comment
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Stanford Steve
Alabama Over 65.5
3-team, 10-point teaser
Northwestern +6.5 (vs. Auburn)
Georgia +3 (vs. Cincinnati)
San Jose State +.5 (vs. Ball State)Comment
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The Bear
Georgia -7
Clemson -7.5Comment
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ats
4 northwestern
3 clemsonComment
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New Day Comp PLay
New Years day Starts the year off big with 3 Bowl plays one is the Bowl Total of the Year, in hoops the Atlantic Sun Game of the Year and an NBA Platinum Supreme. Comp play below,
The NCAAB Comp play is on Wright St at 7:00 eastern. The Raiders are a quality team and laying points on the road wont be a problem here as they have covered the last 4 on the road and 20 of 28 on Fridays. Oakland has failed to cover 4 of 5 off 3+ road games. Wright St ha better overall numbers. Look for the Favorite to move to 6-0 ats in the series. On New Years Day a Packed card with 3 Big BOWL Plays headlines one is the 18-0 Bowl Total of the Year, in hoops we have an NBA Platinum Supreme move and the Atlantic Sun Game of the Year. See us on facebook to jump on. For the Comp play. Go with Wright St. Rob V- GC Sports.Comment
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marc lawrence
10* bowl goy OHIO ST
3* Cincinnati +7
3* Northwestern -3.5Comment
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Allen Eastman
**8-UNIT BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR FRIDAY!**
Game: (327) Cincinnati at (328) Georgia Under 51.5Comment
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H&H Sports
College Football - Triple Dime Georgia -7 (-120)Comment
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Game: (331) Notre Dame at (332) Alabama
Date/Time: Jan 1 2021 4:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Notre Dame +20.0 (-110)
The point spread in this game represents recency bias more than anything else after Notre Dame was dominated by Clemson in the ACC title game. My math model only favors Alabama by 15.2 points in this game and the Irish are 9-3 ATS versus ranked opponents since 2018, tied for the best cover percentage in FBS over that span. Notre Dame was 4-1 ATS versus teams with a winning record this season and the inflated point spread has not been lost on the players.
In fact, this is the largest underdog Notre Dame has been since being a 32.5-point underdog to USC in 2008. Since that game, the Irish have been a double-digit underdog nine times and covered six of those contests. Let's also note that Alabama is just 3-6 ATS in College Football Playoff games, failing to cover each of its past three games. Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly is 5-0 SU following a loss over the last four seasons and 9-6 SU and 13-2 ATS as an underdog off a loss of more than three points.
Ian Books: The Most Underappreciated QB in College Football
Is there a more underappreciated quarterback in the nation than Notre Dame's Ian Book? Book has completed 64% of his pass attempts for 2,601 yards with 15 touchdowns and two interceptions this season. He is the school's all-time winningest quarterback with a 30-4 record and ranks second in school history in career passing yards, touchdown passes, rushing yards by a quarterback, total offense, and points responsible for.
Book's .882 winning percentage ranks him second only to Clemson's Trevor Lawrence among active FBS quarterbacks and he is the only Power 5 quarterback with at least 240 pass attempts and two interceptions or fewer this season. Book's is 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS all-time versus .750 or greater opposition.
Landon Dickerson: The Most Undervalued Injury in College Football
Alabama senior center Landon Dickerson suffered a season-ending knee injury in the Tide's win over Florida in the SEC championship game and will not play in the College Football Playoff. Dickerson started every game the past two seasons and will be replaced by either redshirt senior Chris Owns or sophomore Darrian Dalcourt. The center position is one of the most important from a point spread standpoint but the betting market is not accurately taking into account Dickerson's injury.
Notre Dame's Advantage in the Trenches
Following Notre Dame's loss to Alabama in the 2013 BCS title game, Kelly began to prioritize the line of scrimmage. That focus has resulted in one of the nation's best offensive lines. Notre Dame had three offensive linemen become top 10 NFL draft picks between 2016 and 2018. Left tackle Liam Eichenberg and left guard Aaron Banks are projected to be among the top six players at their respective positions for the 2021 NFL draft.
Notre Dame ranks seventh nationally in average possession time (33.57) and had the possession-time advantage in all but one game during the regular season. The Irish rank 13th nationally in lowest percentage of three-and-outs (19.5%) and held the ball for more than nine minutes seven times in the fourth quarter. The ability to control the clock is critically important against an Alabama offense that has scored touchdowns on more than half of its drives this season (68 of 129).
Notre Dame's defense ranks in the top 25 in most categories, including sixth in third-down conversion percentage (29.2%).
The Irish allow fewer than 100 rushing yards per game and are capable of stopping the run up front with just six guys. Adetokunbo Ogundeji and Daelin Hayes have combined for 57 pass pressures, three forced fumbles, 20 forced incompletions/interceptions and allow the Irish to generate pressure without blitzing.
The line in this game is patently absurd - grab the points with Notre Dame and invest with confidence.
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