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L.A. RAMS @ SEATTLE | 01/09 | 4:40 PM EST
UNDER 42
ANALYSIS: Both games during the regular season went Under the total. Rams QB Jared Goff is questionable, and my feeling is he will be nowhere near 100 percent coming off thumb surgery. During the regular season the Rams finished with the second-best Under record at 12-4. Seattle started the year 6-2 for the Over, however it finished 7-1 Under in the last eight games.
+715 27-18-3 IN LAST 48 NFL PICKS
8:42 AM
INDIANAPOLIS @ BUFFALO | 01/09 | 1:05 PM EST
INDIANAPOLIS +6.5
ANALYSIS: I have Buffalo rated one point higher than Indianapolis, however the Colts are missing both of their offensive tackles, dropping them 2.5 off the pace of the Bills. Of Buffalo’s last six wins, only Pittsburgh was a playoff team and the Steelers were coming off their first loss of the season and missing several key players. The average score in five games against playoff teams they were outscored 27.6-29.8. In the Colts' five games against playoff teams they were outscored 25.6 to 29.
+715 27-18-3 IN LAST 48 NFL PICKS
+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 IND ATS PICKS
+65 5-4 IN LAST 9 BUF ATS PICKS
8:40 AM
INDIANAPOLIS @ BUFFALO | 01/09 | 1:05 PM EST
BUFFALO -6.5
ANALYSIS: The best value on this game is -6 with the Bills, and you can get it if you shop around for it as I did. But I am comfortable here given that I have Buffalo as an eight-point favorite. The Bills have a case to be AFC favorites entering the first round, while the Colts have largely been living off dominant wins against less-than-impressive opponents. There is some concern about Indianapolis controlling the clock with Jonathan Taylor, but Buffalo has such a great ability to answer in quick succession to stave off any deficits. The Bills should jump out to a lead, forcing the Colts to start airing it out, and I like their secondary to get a key takeaway or two. I'm also a fan of taking the Bills with the first-half line if you can get it at -3.
+618 14-7-1 IN LAST 22 NFL ATS PICKS
+300 3-0-1 IN LAST 4 IND ATS PICKS
+241 8-5 IN LAST 13 BUF ATS PICKS
YESTERDAY 10:25 PM
TAMPA BAY @ WASHINGTON | 01/09 | 8:15 PM EST
TAMPA BAY -8
ANALYSIS: The Buccaneers come into the playoffs with something to prove and Tom Brady is at his best during this time of the season. Tampa Bay is simply tough to match up against, and as long as Brady has a little time to pass the football, he is going to shred the Washington defense. Look for the Tampa Bay defense to play one of its best games of the year. The Buccaneers had the best run defense in the NFL during the regular season, allowing just over 80 yards per game.
+185 4-2 IN LAST 6 NFL PICKS
+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 WAS ATS PICKS
6:50 AM
INDIANAPOLIS @ BUFFALO | 01/09 | 1:05 PM EST
BUFFALO -6.5
ANALYSIS: The Bills head into the postseason peaking at just the right time, and they will be hard to match up against. Josh Allen set team records for passing yards and TDs and will be looking to end Buffalo’s six-game postseason skid. The Bills ranked second in the NFL in scoring offense at over 31 points per game and the Colts won’t slow them down. The Buffalo defense has played very well over the last several weeks and the Bills are going to be very tough to beat in Buffalo (7-1 at home in the regular season). Indianapolis is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games vs. AFC opponents. Buffalo is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games overall.
+185 4-2 IN LAST 6 NFL PICKS
+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 IND ATS PICKS
6:35 AM
L.A. RAMS @ SEATTLE | 01/09 | 4:40 PM EST
SEATTLE -3
ANALYSIS: This line finally has dropped to -3, so now we shall make a pick. I don't trust a healthy Jared Goff in a big game, so I certainly will not trust him here -- if Goff even plays. He's a potential game-time call following thumb surgery that kept him out Week 17. I certainly don't trust John Wolford if Goff doesn't play. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson has never lost a home playoff game. I realize home-field advantage doesn't mean as much this year with few/no fans, but the Seahawks were 7-1 at home (6-2 ATS) with a plus-73 point differential. While that very good L.A. defense gets all the hype, Seattle has the best scoring defense in the NFL since Week 10.
+560 20-13 IN LAST 33 NFL PICKS
+295 4-1 IN LAST 5 LAR ATS PICKS
+180 4-2 IN LAST 6 SEA ATS PICKS
YESTERDAY 1:44 PM
INDIANAPOLIS @ BUFFALO | 01/09 | 1:05 PM EST
BUFFALO -6.5
ANALYSIS: I'd rather not pick this game so early in the week, but I'm seeing the spread has risen to 7 at some books so we shall grab 6.5 while we can. Buffalo looks like the best team in the NFL right now on a six-game SU winning streak and eight-game ATS run. Josh Allen could be in for a big game here as Indianapolis has not picked off a pass in the past three games and has allowed four of the past five opposing QBs to throw for at least 316 yards. It will obviously be cold in Buffalo (alas, no snow), and I don't trust warm-weather/dome QB Philip Rivers to perform too well in that.
TAMPA BAY @ WASHINGTON | 01/09 | 8:15 PM EST
WASHINGTON +8
Washington is far from a great team, but the one thing the Football Team has managed is to stay competitive in games. The last time Washington lost a game by more than seven points was Week 5. Washington’s front four is its strength, and teams that can get a pass rush with just four players have given Tom Brady trouble the last couple of years. Brady has done an admirable job avoiding sacks as Tampa Bay has allowed just 22 all season. However, teams in the playoffs that have allowed no more than 1.45 sacks per game are 27-46-1 ATS. Tampa Bay by three. But Washington covers.
TAMPA BAY @ WASHINGTON | 01/09 | 8:15 PM EST
UNDER 44.5
ANALYSIS: Washington has not been to the playoffs since the 2015 season and has not won a playoff game since '05. In Week 18, the Under is 14-0 when home teams that did not make the playoffs the previous season are 1) facing a non-divisional opponent and 2) allowed fewer than 23 points in their previous game and fewer than 38 in the game before that. Also since 2012, there have only been five road favorites in the playoffs that had more wins than their opponent. All five of these games stayed Under. We are on the Under.
+390 5-1 IN LAST 6 NFL PICKS
YESTERDAY 1:34 PM
INDIANAPOLIS @ BUFFALO | 01/09 | 1:05 PM EST
OVER 51
ANALYSIS: The Colts have averaged 7.8 rushing first downs per game this season, just behind the Titans. The Bills are a significant home favorite off a huge win over the Dolphins. All of this activates a nice Over system. The Over is 26-0 when home favorites by more than three points on artificial turf are off a double-digit win as a favorite and are facing a team that has averaged more than 7.5 rushing first downs per game. Josh Allen is oozing confidence and looking forward to making a big splash on the big stage and rewarding the long-suffering, hard-working Buffalo fans. We are on the Over.
PHOENIX @ INDIANA | 01/09 | 7:00 PM EST
PHOENIX +3
ANALYSIS: The Suns shockingly lost on Friday night at Detroit. I think the loss will motivate this Phoenix team that leads the league in points allowed per game (103.2). My model says the Suns cover more than two-thirds of the time and win by three, so you're getting strong value at this number.
+581 8-2 IN LAST 10 PHO ATS PICKS
+541 12-6 IN LAST 18 IND ATS PICKS
YESTERDAY 10:14 PM
VIRGINIA @ BOSTON COLLEGE | 01/09 | 2:00 PM EST
VIRGINIA -7.5
ANALYSIS: My model says Virginia covers almost three-fourths of the time -- a rare number -- and that the Cavaliers win by 16, so you're getting extremely strong value at this number. No. 22 Virginia is coming on, having won back-to-back games against Notre Dame and Wake Forest, both by nine points. The sparkplug, Kihei Clark, has been key, averaging 16 points and 4.0 assists per game the past three games. Meanwhile Boston College (2-8, 0-4 ACC) has struggled all year. I'm jumping on the Cavs.
2* Wake Forest (+14 -105) over DUKE, 2-Stars at +13.5 or more and 1-Star to +12.5
1* Delaware (+2.5) over WILLIAM & MARY good to +2
1* Akron (-5.5) over EASTERN MICHIGAN good to -6.5
1* KANSAS STATE (+8 -115) over Oklahoma State good to +7.5
1* Maine (+11.5) over NJIT good to +9.5
Opinions
Ohio State (+4 -105) over RUTGERS good to +3
Missouri State (-2.5) over VALPARAISO good to -2.5
Over (127) Fordham - Duquesne good to 127.5
Under (158.5) Bowling Green - Central Michigan good to 157.5
Over (146.5) Tennessee Tech - Eastern Kentucky good to 147
Under (135.5) Florida Atlantic - Old Dominion good to 135.5
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