Thursday 1/7/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Delta Downs - Race #5

#3 Rock Ridge	Made a pretty good first local impression in that runner-up effort, and he should be able to get another pretty good trip near the top. 5/1 ML price seems fair in a competitive race.
#1 Crimson Zip	Wouldn't want to take too short a price on anyone in here, but this 8/5 ML favorite just missed with similar last time out off the long layoff, and he's a forward factor again from the inside.
#2 Centastic	Races out of the same barn as the top choice, and he only showed brief chasing pace in the debut before stopping while in the Pletcher barn. Change of scenery may serve him well.
Race Summary	This is a really good race for the level locally, and Rock Ridge might get a bit overlooked in here. He was a good second in his local debut and now makes his third start off the break.

Delta Downs - Race #7

#5 Condesa's Handmaid	Price player ran a good one off the bench last time out, and she's quick enough to work out another good trip right near the top. If she can run a similar race while rating just a bit, she's got a chance at a number.
#2 Cool Spring	Forward player should be able to stick in the mix from the start, but she has been more of an underneath type with this kind in the past and may be there again, though I wouldn't want too short a price.
#4 Charzee Baby	Versatile runner has proven a decent fit since stepping up to this level a few starts ago, and she probably only needs to hold her form for another piece.
Race Summary	Condesa's Handmaid may get overlooked on the board after the good effort at 30/1 last time out, but she has some room to step forward with that race under her belt, and the price should be right.

Delta Downs - Race #8

#6 Buxterhooter	He's capable of better than he showed last time out, and he was competitive with this kind here last year, so there is some hope for a move in the right direction here.
#9 Cantrell Hill	His recent running lines make him the clear one to beat, and he has faced some decent groups along the way. Still, he was beaten at 6/5 last out while offering no serious threat, so I wouldn't want a short price.
#3 Two Mikes and Doc G	He has been a pretty reliable type, and he was just second in a very minor Alabama-bred stakes race at Fair Grounds. Don't think he's overmatched here.
Race Summary	Buxterhooter hasn't brought his best in those two recent starts, but I'm willing to give him another chance with these with plenty of competitive back races showing on the form.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Freehold - Race #2

#4 FERNANDO	Knows how to win, class drop appears the answer.
#2 ROCKS NOBLE ARTIST	Couldn't reach 3-1 winner through slow final half.
#3 FINAL JUSTICE	Edged 'Rocks' for second as the even-money choice.
Race Summary	Fernando, an eight-time winner out of town last year, seeks a confidence-building win for a 21-percent barn. He gets the call in his second start after a 'sick' absence.

Dover Downs - Race #2

#8 MANKAT	Set fast pace, caught late, goes non-stop as today's Best Bet.
#2 JK LUCKY CHARMS	Bid around stalled cover on final turn but lacked kick as fave.
#6 MAJOR ASSET	Flushed out early, grinded first-over, finished evenly.
Race Summary	Mankat bid 3-wide to take the lead before the half and stayed there until deep-closing winner arrived. He should take some catching despite outside starting spot.

Pompano Park - Race #1

#6 REDBREAST HANOVER	Carried speed to back-to-back wins at this level.
#5 A BETTOR BEACH	Sustained first-over rally to catch pace-setting favorite.
#2 PRAIRIE MIDNIGHT	Middle moves led to pair of seconds recently.
Race Summary	Redbreast Hanover controlled a slower pace in a repeat victory at this level. Hennessey chose him on a double call. Play 6-2 and 6-5 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

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Gulfstream Park - Race #1

#2 Lovely Brown	Rallied steadily and just missed going a sixteenth shorter than the distance she's running today; can make a solid late run.
#1 Lido Key	Was up in time at Aqueduct in her latest and takes a 33-percent class drop for her return; has been in much tougher spots and has done well but has dropped in class in both of her starts for the current ownership.
#4 All About Kathern	Was an easy winner last out and keeps Lopez; can close and could welcome this longer distance.
Race Summary	Lovely Brown should get a good enough pace in front of her and can rally at this distance.

Gulfstream Park - Race #5

#3 Pretendant	Closed to fourth in a fast race and gets more distance this time; big player late in the game.
#2 Digital Footprint	Was up in time in his first try over this course in his first for Maker, who continues to do well; can be in the mix throughout.
#9 Cairo Campaign	Was a clear winner in his last two races and goes two turns for the first time and also makes his first turf appearance.
Race Summary	Pretendant came on well last time but was just not fast enough against a tough bunch; gets a better scenario here.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8

#2 Famous Gents	Closed mildly for third in his last two and has tough his level; has the class to prevail.
#4 Gatsby	Was closed up early and finished fourth in the Inaugural at Tampa; has been in good races and fits vs. these state-breds.
#7 Willy Boi	Held on for the victory in his only start; has the speed to battle and can stay for a piece of the exotics.
Race Summary	Famous Gents finished with interest in his last two and should be moving best in the stretch.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs

Delta Downs - Race 8	Daily Double ($1 min.) / Exacta / Trifecta (50 cent min.) Superfecta (10 cent min)
Allowance • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 93 • Purse: $31,000 • Post: 4:07P
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR TRIAL OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE DECEMBER 7 ALLOWED 3 LBS. (CLAIMING RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. COACH ADAMS is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * COACH ADAMS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. CANTRELL HILL: Horse is highest ranked on Good Speed and Good Class. Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. BUXTERHOOTER: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Today is a route and this is the horse's third s tart after a layoff, after two sprint prep races. TABIA: Today is a route and this is the horse's third start after a layoff, after two sprint prep races. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
5	COACH ADAMS	12/1	4/1
9	CANTRELL HILL	8/5	6/1
6	BUXTERHOOTER	6/1	7/1
7	TABIA	5/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	COACH ADAMS	5	12/1	Front-runner	88	87	99.4	77.8	72.3
7	TABIA	7	5/1	Stalker	93	83	67.3	76.4	70.4
9	CANTRELL HILL	9	8/5	Stalker	97	90	63.6	82.6	77.1
6	BUXTERHOOTER	6	6/1	Stalker	91	87	58.2	84.4	79.4
1	EL HOMBRE	1	20/1	Stalker	71	70	53.6	64.8	46.8
8	DREWPOWER	8	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	88	80	60.0	66.1	55.1
3	TWO MIKES N DOC G	3	8/1	Trailer	82	82	67.6	76.6	63.6
4	DREAMONMEBABY	4	4/1	Trailer	81	81	67.1	71.6	60.6
2	AQUALITYINDIVIDUAL	2	15/1	Trailer	80	76	62.0	72.8	58.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BATTAGLIA :
Daily Free Play

AQUEDUCT
RACE 2

# 1-6-3 Rating 3 stars

#1 Jemography-was at the top of his game last year while winning 3 of 8 with 4 seconds. He has found a race full of early speed and that will set up his late run.

#6 The Caretaker-The only other closer in the field who will also benefit from a fast early pace. He has been on the board in 10 of 15 here and is the one to beat.

#3 Big Mountain-has won his last two in a row and loves this track.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Aqueduct

Aqueduct - Race 2	Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (2-4) Pick 4 (.50) Races (2-5), Double Wagers
Optional Claiming $40,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 94 • Purse: $74,000 • Post: 1:20P
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $13,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $40,000. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES OTHER THAN CLAIMING OR STARTER SINCE JULY 1, 2020 ALLOWED 3 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000 (1.5% AFTERCARE ASSESSMENT DUE AT TIME OF CLAIM OTHERWISE CLAIM WILL BE VOID).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Trailer. THE CARETAKER is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * THE CARETAKER: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. STEAM ENGINE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. BIG MOUNTAIN: H orse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SCILLY CAY: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. BRONX BOMBER: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff .
6	THE CARETAKER	2/1	9/2
2	STEAM ENGINE	8/1	6/1
3	BIG MOUNTAIN	7/2	8/1
4	SCILLY CAY	7/2	9/1
5	BRONX BOMBER	6/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	STEAM ENGINE	2	8/1	Front-runner	93	92	96.4	89.4	83.9
3	BIG MOUNTAIN	3	7/2	Front-runner	95	93	93.8	67.6	59.1
5	BRONX BOMBER	5	6/1	Front-runner	95	91	68.6	79.0	71.5
4	SCILLY CAY	4	7/2	Stalker	98	94	80.8	79.4	70.9
1	JEMOGRAPHY	1	3/1	Stalker	92	90	58.4	84.6	76.6
6	THE CARETAKER	6	2/1	Trailer	97	90	67.8	92.8	89.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Turfway Park - Race #8 - Post: 9:44pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 71

Rating:

#11 SAMIS CAR (ML=8/1)
#5 BUTTER UP KATIE (ML=15/1)


SAMIS CAR - Based on this mare's recent efforts, she should profit from today's shorter distance. BUTTER UP KATIE - My handicapping know-how tells me to be on the alert for this thoroughbred in this race

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 HONEY BOURBON (ML=3/1), #7 RATHRBLUCKYTHNGOOD (ML=5/1), #3 ALIN AZUL (ML=5/1),

HONEY BOURBON - Hard to bet on at 3/1 odds after the last two efforts. Hasn't raced or had any works since December 11th. Not much value on this morning-line favorite. RATHRBLUCKYTHNGOOD - Last raced on December 4th at Turfway Park, finishing sixth. Unlikely to perk up off of that try in today's event. ALIN AZUL - Showed some physical problems in the last race at Pimlico.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #11 SAMIS CAR to win if we can get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,11]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:	None

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Fair Grounds

01/07/21, FG, Race 6, 3.25 CT
01/07/21,FG,6,7 1/2F [Turf About] 1:29:01 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $19,000 (includes up to $4,000 Other Sources) (plus up to $3,000 ALBSS-Accredited LA Bred Slot Supplement). FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS IN 2019-2021 OR CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. Weight, 123 lbs. Non-winners Of Two Races Since November 7 Allowed 2 lbs. A Race Since Then Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $10,000. (If deemed inadvisable by management to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at One Mile.) (Rail at 25 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	10	Freedom Factor	10/1	Graham J	Bourgeois Keith G.	JSW	148	31.76	1.40/$1
098.6979	2	Forestdungone	6/1	Marquez C L	Cormier. Jr. Donald	FL	148	31.76	1.40/$1
097.9365	9	Overzealous	7/2	Hernandez. Jr. B J	Hartman Chris A.		148	31.76	1.40/$1
097.3665	8	Half Ours to Keep	5/1	Hernandez C J	Broberg Karl	T	148	31.76	1.40/$1
097.1321	5	Executive Bonus	5/1	Beschizza A	Sharp Joe		148	31.76	1.40/$1
096.4221	7	Money Trend	6/1	Mena M	Pish Danny		148	31.76	1.40/$1
096.0764	6	Cap Rock Miner	8/1	Gilligan J	Wilson Shane		126	29.37	1.35/$1
095.4231	3	Killeen	5/1	Pedroza M	Faucheux Ron		148	31.76	1.40/$1
095.1151	1	Shirl's Ready	8/1	Bonnet C	Carter Jr. Royce E.	EC	148	31.76	1.40/$1
094.1835	4	King of Candy(b+)	12/1	Saez G	Sharp Joe		148	31.76	1.40/$1

Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 21.05, ROI 0.69/$1
. . . .
100.0000 10 Freedom Factor
[Category]Condition
[AllTurf]LastRaceWeightIsNotLessThanToday
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	9	Overzealous	7/2	Hernandez. Jr. B J	Hartman Chris A.	J	108	39.81	1.24/$1
099.9466	8	Half Ours to Keep	5/1	Hernandez C J	Broberg Karl		155	34.84	1.25/$1
099.6780	3	Killeen	5/1	Pedroza M	Faucheux Ron	T	108	39.81	1.24/$1
099.0080	5	Executive Bonus	5/1	Beschizza A	Sharp Joe		155	34.84	1.25/$1
097.3503	7	Money Trend	6/1	Mena M	Pish Danny		108	39.81	1.24/$1
097.1631	2	Forestdungone	6/1	Marquez C L	Cormier. Jr. Donald	FEL	108	39.81	1.24/$1
096.9946	10	Freedom Factor	10/1	Graham J	Bourgeois Keith G.	SW	155	34.84	1.25/$1
096.7331	6	Cap Rock Miner	8/1	Gilligan J	Wilson Shane		108	39.81	1.24/$1
094.8947	1	Shirl's Ready	8/1	Bonnet C	Carter Jr. Royce E.	C	108	39.81	1.24/$1
094.1393	4	King of Candy(b+)	12/1	Saez G	Sharp Joe		155	34.84	1.25/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 28.03, ROI 0.73/$1
. . . .
100.0000 9 Overzealous
[Category]Condition
[AllCategories]LastRace(SprintOrRoute)NotSameAsToday

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $31000 Class Rating: 93

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JULY 7, 2020. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF THREE RACES ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $35,000, FOR EACH $5,000 TO $25,000 1 LB.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 LUCKY JINGLE 7/2
# 1 UNA LUNA 5/1
# 7 CODRINGTON 10/1

LUCKY JINGLE is the top wager in this race. With a very good 96 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this contest. UNA LUNA - With a nice Equibase class figure average of 98, has one of the top class advantages in this group of animals. Has performed strongly recently in route races, posting a nifty 89 avg speed fig.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Charles Town - Race #8 - Post: 10:17pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,500 Class Rating: 81

Rating:

#11 K W CAPTAIN FLINT (ML=9/2)
#2 FLY E DUBAI (ML=4/1)
#4 ITGOT GRANDMA (ML=5/2)


K W CAPTAIN FLINT - As long as Montano keeps this horse off the pace, I have to believe this one could be a happy winner. Good return on investment for this rider and trainer duet. I like that latest outing on December 22nd at Penn National where he ran first. FLY E DUBAI - Bocachica rode this mount for the initial time last time out and comes right back this race. This rider and trainer have a high win pct together. ITGOT GRANDMA - Was in a $5,000 Claiming race at Laurel in the last race. That affair had a class number of 86 and he is moving down in today's race. A certain serious competitor. Don't often see a favorable ROI like +46. This jock/conditioner pair has done well together over the last twelve months. Is ranked at the top in earnings per race. A powerful try in this event will add to that total.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 TOP ME OFF (ML=7/2), #3 MY EMINENCE (ML=6/1), #9 UHWARRIE SKY (ML=8/1),

TOP ME OFF - Registered a disappointing speed figure last out in a $5,000 Claiming race on Dec 11th. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that figure. MY EMINENCE - You think this animal is going to be victorious just because he's always close. Just doesn't get the job done frequently. UHWARRIE SKY - Last ran on December 18th at Laurel, finishing ninth. Not likely to advance off of that effort in today's race. This runner has no victories in his last ten races. He's probably not worth the price on the win end today. Registered a run-of-the-mill speed figure last time around the track in a $5,000 Claiming race on Dec 18th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that figure.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - ITGOT GRANDMA - Having the best speed fig last race of 84 at Laurel on December 18th. This gelding has an excellent chance to win here.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #11 K W CAPTAIN FLINT to win. Have to have odds of at least 4/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,11]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4,11] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[2,4,11] with [2,4,11] with [2,4,9,10,11] with [2,4,9,10,11] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wayne Root - NCAAB - Thu, Jan 07 at 5:00 PM
We are playing Oregon

Oregon vs Colorado
Oregon +2.5 (-105) (BookMaker)

After losing the first game of the season 83-75 as a 3.5 point favorite to Missouri, the Ducks have rolled off eight straight wins and are rated No. 15 in the nation. Let’s take the Ducks as a small dog in a game that they should win outright. Colorado will be playing its first official home Pac-12 game of the season, but they face a deeper and more talented team in Oregon. Oregon returned the teams' second-leading scorer from last season in seniorChris Duarte, who averaged 12.9. The Ducks are led by three seniors and a junior, with three of those players (Figueroa, Williams Jr, and Omoryui) who came in as star transfers from other strong programs. The more this group plays together, the better they should get, and I see the Ducks as a team with elite eight potential this season. Even without the home-court advantage, Oregon is the better team here, and I will not pass up on taking them as a dog.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc's Sports - NCAAB - Thu, Jan 07 at 5:00 PM
Doc's Sports Thursday NCAA Free Play

Oregon vs Colorado
Colorado -2.5 (-109) (BetAnySports)

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take Colorado Buffaloes over Oregon Ducks (11p.m., Thursday, January 7 FS1) This should be a situation where we have an unranked team that is favored over a ranked team. That is always a strong angle in handicapping, and we will side with the Buffaloes on Thursday looking to even their conference record at 2-2 on the season. Oregon has been feasting on an easy schedule of late and this will be their toughest road game of the season thus far. Do not miss out on Doc’s sports weekend football and basketball card. Jump on board now and let 49 years of handicapping experience work for you.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian Bitler - NCAAB - Thu, Jan 07 at 7:00 PM
Brian’s 9* CBB Executive Order

Cincinnati vs SMU
Cincinnati +6 (-107) (BetAnySports)

This game features the 2-6 Cincinnati and the 6-1 SMU. I have been riding Cincinnati for quite some time and losing a ton of cash but this team is just much better then that 2-6 record and eventually they will break out of this funk they are in. Last time these two teams met up Cincinnati blew them out by 22 I am worried about the revenge factor here but this Bearcats team is well coached and talented and I expect a run at the AAC when it conference tournament time. Mustangs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss. Investment of 9 units on Cincinnati plus all points rotation #733

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Murphy - NBA - Thu, Jan 07 at 7:35 PM
Sean Murphy's Thursday NBA Winner

Philadelphia 76ers vs Brooklyn Nets
Philadelphia 76ers -130 (BetAnySports)

Thursday NBA Free play. My selection is on Philadelphia (moneyline) over Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. This isn't an ideal scheduling spot for the 76ers as they playing the second of back-to-back nights off a track meet win over the Wizards last night. With that being said, it's hard not to like what we've seen from Doc Rivers' squad in the early going this season as they check in 7-1 and should be able to get past a Kevin Durant-less Nets squad on Thursday night. Note that as good as the Sixers offense has been, their defense has been even better, ranking tops in the league in defensive efficiency. Brooklyn head coach Steve Nash says he'll continue to experiment with different rotations in Durant's absence. I'm not sure that's the right move after Tuesday's chess moves worked to perfection in a blowout win over the Jazz. While we cashed a ticket fading the Sixers last night, I won't hesitate to go the other way in this spot as they get up for an early 'measuring stick' game against one of the East's perceived best teams. Take Philadelphia moneyline (8*).