Sunday 1/10/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-10-2021, 08:23 AM

Al Cimaglia: Pompano Park Pick 5 Analysis-$150000 Guaranteed Pool

January 10, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight at Pompano Park there is a $24,046 carryover for the 0.50 Pick 5 which begins in Race 1. The sequence has another $150,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 1

2-What a Hunk (3-1)-Steps-up but does get Hennessey tonight and a 2-hole trip could be in the cards.
3-General Jackson (9-1)-The General tries hard but will need a few breaks and the right trip to take a picture. It's best to not overlook, because could end up on the point in control of the mile.
8-Susie's Sister (3/2)-This is a solid threat but starts slowly and broke in last. The 8-hole is also cause to pause because will likely have to grind its way around. Hard to leave out versus this group and hoping for the right trip. But doesn't offer any value at the morning line price.

Race 2

2-Uknow What To Do (5/2)-Dunn drives and trains this Muscle Mass 7-year-old who might be the fastest of this crew. Comes off a nice effort but is 1-23 at the Pomp. In context that isn't so bad, no one has more than 1 win here and 5 from this field are winless in south Florida.
3-Fleet Cessna (9-1) -This amateur pilot has been in only 14 races but is in a spot to get sucked around. Has shown decent speed for this field while racing at Nfld. Has had excuses in PPk races and now gets a decent post draw.
4-Windsun Hugo (3-1)-The pilot has only 60 drives under his belt but this 9-year-old can leave and had 4-wins in 2020. That is the top tick in this field for last year. Looks like the one to beat with a decent steer.
6-Noble Prize (8-1)-Usual pilot left the gate in last and that isn't the typical course of action. Faded to finish 4th but the effort was better and could offer a decent price.

Race 3

2-Ey Cowboy (6-1)-Step-up but there aren't any monsters in here and Hennessey takes a seat. Should be on the lead in or in the pocket and could offer a fair price.
4-Villiam (7/2)-Only 1-21 in 2020 but should be forwardly placed for Team Chindano and recent form has been good. Has hit the board in 3 of 4 PPk starts and has taken 1 picture. Looks like a player and chances go up with some quick fractions.
5-Rockin M ((7/5)-Has been cashing checks versus better and should enjoy the company. This guy has plenty of speed but seems like a follower. Needs to be on the ticket but can't fully trust.

Race 4

3-Plus One (2-1)-0-7 at the Pomp but drops to a comfortable level and has had some very quick miles on the 5/8's at Plainridge. Should be able to take control early on and cash the biggest check as long as the journey is smooth.

Race 5

5-Ripped Up (7/2)-This is another Amateur Driver event and will stick with the program chalks here. This mare came off cover to win 2 starts back and can be posing with a similar effort this evening. Trainer steers and could make the most of the post draw.
7-Piercewave Hanover (1-1)-Joins the Beckwith barn after racing at the Big M and on the east coast. Has been facing better and has a lifetime mark at Plainridge of 153. Idle since 12/18 so trusting barn will have ready for a top effort. If King can provide a decent steer it could be time to notch a rare win. Makes 1st PPk start from an outside post for a provisional driver, so this could be an interesting mile.

0.50 Pick 5

2,3,8/2,3,4,6/2,4,5/3/5,7
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-10-2021, 08:24 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk: My Late Pick 4 Ticket Sunday at Gulfstream

January 8, 2021 | By Jerry Shottenkirk

Older sprinters are in the headliner Sunday at Gulfstream Park and give the Pick 4 a good chance to be a decent payer.

It’s a six-furlong race for $62,500 optional claimers, and this week’s suggested Pick 4 tickets has four runners from the 10th race and the total of the ticket is $60. Mischevious Alex, With Verve, Epic Dreamer and Shirl’s Speight are on the ticket for what is the third leg of the sequence, which begins in the eighth.

Another balanced field opens the Pick 4 action. Older sprinters for the bottom claiming price of $6,250 will mix it up, and this one looks like a free-for-all, with Northern, Young Raymond, Take Charge Dude, Karen’s Cove and Weisser on the ticket.

Here’s a look at runners being used in the sequence:

Race 8 (3:42 p.m. ET, claiming)

NORTHERN tired last time and just doesn’t run many bad ones. Has won nine over the strip.

YOUNG RAYMOND is ideally setup with this pace – it’s just a question if he has the talent. Not as experienced as some of the others but has a good closing move.

TAKE CHARGE DUDE drops out of tougher races and has enough speed to make himself a factor right off the bat.

KAREN’S COVE closed well in three of his last four and can be a factor down the lane.

WEISSER set the early pace and tired in the G3 Smile Sprint. Drops are far as one can drop, class-wise, and is talented enough to use.

Race 9 (4:13 p.m. ET, optional claiming)

AUNT NADINE ran an even fifth in the G3 Sugar Swirl last out and lost a photo the last time she was at this level. Broke her maiden over this course.

ROMAN D’ORO ran on well for fourth going this distance last out and can be dangerous if she can stay close earlier.

UNAQUOI was not sharp at the break but came flying for second in the Claiming Crown Dash in December. Worthy of strong consideration.

Race 10 (4:45 p.m. ET, optional claiming)

MISCHEVIOUS ALEX showed speed in Grade 1 races in New York and was started year with wins in the G3 Swale here and followed with a win in the G3 Gotham.

WITH VERVE ran on well for second in a similar spot last time and has several good performances on his form.

EPIC DREAMER tried turf last time and can be a factor as he returns to a dirt sprint. Adds blinkers and makes his second attempt for the Mark Casse stable.

SHIRL’S SPEIGHT won the G3 Marine on All-Weather at Woodbine and makes his first on dirt. The switch should not be a problem for this classy runner.

Race 11 (5:17 p.m. ET, maidens)

CHAMPAGNE IVY rallied well for second in her debut and was a well-beaten third in her followup in a race that came off the turf. Should enjoy the return to grass and more distance.

ALWAYZ LATE was third in two of three races and is solid in two-turn turf races.

50-cent Late Pick 4 Sunday at Gulfstream Park:
8) #3 Northern, #4 Young Raymond, #5 Take Charge Dude, #7 Karen’s Cove, #9 Weisser.
9) #4 Aunt Nadine, #6 Roman d’Oro, #7 Unaquoi.
10) #1 Mischevious Alex, #4 With Verve, #6 Epic Dreamer, #8 Shirl’s Speight.
11) #1 Champagne Ivy, #10 Alwayz Late.
50-cent Pick Four: 3-4-5-7-9 with 4-6-7 with 1-4-6-8 with 1-10 ($60).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-10-2021, 08:24 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 1/10/21

January 10, 2021
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Click here to view today’s Workout Report

RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Golden: 4-Quick and Dirty; 6-Ivy League

Forecast: Golden rallied into slow fractions in a decent debut effort when a willing third vs. similar at Del Mar last month and has every right to produce a forward move with that bit of experience behind her. Her R. Mandella-trained stable mate,Ivy League, finished a nose behind her in that same race and removes blinkers, so improvement is possible as well, though with already four career outings she may have a bit less upside than Golden. We’ll also toss in Quick and Dirty was a solid runner-up in an expensive maiden claimer in her only start and has worked well since for a barn that has superior stats with second-time starters. Truthfully, these three are tough to separate but we suspect the race winner is among them.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:04 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Miss Fia; 2-Jungle Juice; 4-Gidgetta

Forecast: Three of the five starters in this first-level allowance sprint for fillies and mares have legitimate credentials to win, so we’ll include all three in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race. Gidgetta returns to dirt and broke her maiden over this track almost a year ago with a good number, and while she’s been sparingly raced since then the daughter of Fast Anna has winning connections and a solid series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs to have her primed to produce a forward move. In a race without much speed, she projects to be on or near the lead throughout. Jungle Juice is strong in the speed figure department based on two excellent races in Kentucky last fall and if she repeats either one today, she certainly can win. The veteran mare has 32 races on her resume but just two on dirt, both victories. Miss Fia shows rising numbers and is fresh from a clever score in a starter’s allowance sprint at Los Alamitos last month. With another forward move in just her seventh career start the daughter of Maclean’s Music will be right there.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Lady Mystify; 3-Honor America

Forecast: We’ll double the third race, a maiden special weight sprint for 3-year-old fillies that came up a bit light. Honor America set the pace before weakening late in her debut at Los Alamitos last month but has returned to work quite well for the high percentage S. Ruis barn and seems certain to produce a significant forward move with that effort behind her. Hot-riding J. J. Hernandez stays aboard. Lady Mystify, a good runner-up in the same race Honor American exits, also has a right to step forward while switching to F. Prat. The P. Eurton barn has good stats with the second-time starter angle, and with a solid recent five furlong workout over this track since raced the daughter of Bernardini is strictly the one to beat.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: B
Use: 6-N. K. Rocket Man; 7-Full Draw

Forecast: N. K. Rocket Man seems most comfortable as a late-running sprinter and with a legitimate drop from straight maiden to this bottom-rung maiden $20,000 level the son of Unusual Heat appears well-spotted to graduate. At this seven furlong trip, the D. Pederson-trained 5-year-old will be able to settle early and then pick up steam whenever the pace flow dictates. Full Draw ran well when nosed out at this level during the fall meeting, and if he can run back to that race today the Union Rags gelding should every chance. His two outings since that good race were below par but there were excuses for both. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with preference on top to N. K. Rocket Man.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B+
Use: 2-Aqua Seaform Shame; 5-Gypsy Blu; 8-Heathers Grey

Forecast: Aqua Seaform Shame, rested since October and training at San Luis Rey Downs like she’s fit and ready, exits a pair of tougher stakes races and looks capable of regaining her winning form in this second-level allowance turf dash that should suit her to a “T.” Most effective around one turn, she projects to enjoy an ideal ground-saving, stalking trip, and with her best effort she should be along in time while offering value at or near her morning line of 3-1. Gypsy Blu and Heathers Grey probably are worth including on your ticket for protection. The former, in her first start since the fall, picks up F. Prat and is a three-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course while the latter has been routing most of her career but could be dangerous on the turn back in trip over a turf course that has produced two of her wins.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:05 PT Grade: B
Use: 5-Captain Scotty; 6-Italiano

Forecast: Ex-classer Captain Scottylooks pretty solid in this $40,000 sprint for older horses, though at 8/5 on the morning line he’s not likely to offer much wagering value. The P. Miller-trained gelding seeks his third straight score and once again clearly projects as the controlling speed, so if he has at least one good one left the son of Quality Road should be hard to catch. Italiano picks up bug girl J. Pyfer and as such will be getting nine pounds from the favorite, so we’ll include him as well. A two-time winner over the local main track, the veteran son of Twirling Candy should find himself in a good stalking spot and then have his chance if ‘Scotty gets a little late.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Nice Ice; 3-Ellie Arroway;5-Hurley

Forecast: Let’s go for a price in this wide-open $40,000 claiming turf miler for older fillies and mares. Hurley, a first off the claim play for R. Hess, Jr., is capable of winning a race at this level if she can avoid trouble. She’s often victimized by bad trips – most of the time due to self-caused trouble – but with a good pace to chase and clear sailing through the lane the veteran daughter of Mucho Macho Man can pose a serious threat in the final furlong. A bullet recent workout (47 3/5 seconds, fastest of 14 on the training track) gives strong indication that she’s spot on, so at or near her morning line of 10-1 she’s worth a bit of a gamble. Ellie Arroway, a two-time winner over this course and distance, logically is the one to beat. Away since late October but with a healthy, steady work pattern in recent weeks to have her on edge, the daughter of Street Boss projects to inherit a comfortable pace-stalking trip. Nice Ice likely will try gate-to-wire tactics from the rail and has back numbers that make her dangerous. She won over this course and distance at this level in late October and is another sporting a steady work tab that should have her ready to roll off the bench.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:05 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Qahira; 4-Acting Out

Forecast: Acting Out has really gotten good of late and gets tested for class while taking on stakes competition for the first time in this year’s renewal of the Kalookan Queen. With rising numbers and the versatility to handle any surface or pace scenario, the daughter of Blame projects to be within range to the head of the lane and then have her chance to seal the deal, just as she did in her last pair. A recent bullet workout at Los Alamitos (47 seconds, fastest of 30) gives indication that she has plenty more to give. Qahira, thoroughly genuine and consistent and with numbers that are good enough to win, is the one Acting Out has to worry about the most. Freshened since September, the daughter of Cairo Prince switches to J. Rosario and will have a strong pace presence every step of the way. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll give Acting Out a very slight edge on top.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:35 PT Grade: B-
Use: 5-Inner Beauty; 6-Plum Sexy; 8-Nimbostratus; 11-Miss Dracarys

Forecast: The finale is a messy grass sprint for entry-level allowance sophomore fillies. We’ll try to get by using four in rolling exotic play, but nothing would surprise us. Plum Sexy is back sprinting where she belongs and a repeat of her sharp maiden score over the local lawn during the fall meeting makes her a major player at 8-1 on the morning line. Miss Dracarys won sprinting on grass in her debut in New York with a huge speed figure, though we’re not sure the number is entirely accurate. She’ll be heard from late if she can negotiate a decent trip from her extreme outside post position. Nimbostratus and Inner Beauty both are returning to a sprint and both should improve considerably at this shorter trip. The former gets Lasix and F. Prat while the latter was fourth in a Group-2 turf six furlong affair at The Curragh in Ireland last year in a race that looks stronger on paper than this one.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-10-2021, 08:27 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #3

#8 Marylander	He hasn't seen this kind of company for a bit, and he figures to be much more competitive while facing this easier group. Looks like the main danger to the chalk.
#5 Instigated	Pace drops after settling for second last out, but he has been a real handful with this kind in the past and is the clear one to beat without a ton of pace opposition lined up against him.
#1 Rumson Rally	Hit or miss form makes him tough to trust, but his best game keeps him in the picture for a piece of this after failing to show up in the mud last time out.
Race Summary	Marylander looks like the one who may be able to give Instigated some fits on the drop. He has been in with better groups and probably has enough positional pace to find a spot not too far off the chalk.

Laurel Park - Race #6

#7 Mr. Mims	Tough to trust any of them in here, but this guy is at least worth a small look at a square price. He showed nothing against NY-bred MSW company in the debut back in 2019, but he drops hard for this and seems to have been working okay enough ahead of this.
#1 Roof Top Bar	He has generally faced better than this and didn't miss by much at this level a couple starts back, but he has had 11 starts and has a late-running style that leaves him open to trouble.
#10 Tiz Auction Time	He hasn't ever threatened a winner, but he does look best of the rest here after a press, lead and fade effort last out when trying this level. Iffy, but capable.
Race Summary	Mr. Mims needs a big form reversal, but he moves into a capable barn for this big drop, and there isn't anything to be really afraid of in this spot.

Laurel Park - Race #8

#2 Nautical Nature	Worth a price swing here. He owns sharp speed in a race where the other forward players seem content to press or spy and may prefer slightly longer trips, so he should be good for a thrill on the front end.
#5 Nomo Ron	Likely chalk was beaten by the rail runner when they met last out, but this guy might be a touch better suited to 6f than the 7f trip at which they most recently met.
#1 Girls Love Me	Tactical type will need to work out a trip from the fence here, but he did just beat Nomo Ron and has some forward ability to try to find a spot early.
Race Summary	Nautical Nature should be able to find the front at this 6f trip, and if he doesn't take too much heat early, he's potentially good for a piece at an overlaid price.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-10-2021, 08:28 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #2

#5 Man of Vision	Comes out of starter allowance races where he was fourth and second; won two straight earlier and can bring the early heat vs. these.
#3 Gemo	Pressed the pace and held on for third last time and takes a class drop; seeks a return to the winner's circle for the first time since March.
#8 Strong Ending	Was second and claimed by Joseph last out and has a decent kick on occasion; should be a factor for this price.
Race Summary	Man of Vision has been in good races, has the speed to take command, and can get back to winning ways.

Gulfstream Park - Race #4

#1 Diamonds Envoy	Opened a clear lead in the stretch and was caught in the last stride last time; can win if he gives the same effort.
#7 Fixico	Was an easy maiden winner last time out and can battle from the outset.
#4 Road to Peace	Was a closing fourth the last time he was at this level and can benefit from a fast pace.
Race Summary	Diamonds Envoy has speed and can benefit from the inside post; just missed last time and looms as the one to beat.

Gulfstream Park - Race #6

#6 Director's Cut	Was outrun in the G2 Miss Grillo at Belmont last time but her other races, including a second in the Sharp Susan Stakes here in August, make her a big factor today.
#5 Runaway Rockette	Was second in a good race in her first over this course after a maiden win at Belmont; can close into this pace.
#4 Mia Martina	Closed well and was up in time in her only race; she rallied against a slow pace and could get into the gimmicks here.
Race Summary	Director's Cut has been in tougher races and has the class to get past this group.