Tuesday 1/12/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-12-2021, 05:05 AM

Al Cimaglia: Pompano Park Pick 4 Analysis

January 12, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
Pompano Park has a 10-race card ready to go tonight. The 0.50 Pick 4 begins in Race 6. The sequence has a $20,000 guaranteed pool with a 12% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

1-Dads Filly (12-1)-The break in last is cause for pause but will take a swing at this price. This isn't a group of All-Stars and this mare did have 5 wins in 2020 which was more than anyone except #6 who had 9. This is the spot to get sucked around and surprise. Also has 8 wins and 8 second place finishes at the Pomp in 28 starts.
6-New Number Who Dis (3-1)-This gal was driven by the trainer-owner until tonight as Dave Miller takes a spin. Recent form is form is so-so but has faced better. My guess is the public will be betting like the race is already over but is difficult to leave out.
7-Even Louder (2-1)-Here is the camera-shy morning line chalk who makes 2nd start since a sick scratch. Likes to leave and has decent gate speed but there will be 2 or 3 others trying the same. Has the speed to beat this crew but needs a smooth trip.

Race 7

1-Northern Dali (10-1)-Beat Open II company on 12/1 and 12/22 and this field doesn't appear any tougher. Not sure if the rail helps but 10-year-old does know how to pose and with a decent trip could do so again.
2-Rockin Serena (5/2)-Takes a good step-up in class after wiring the field in last. Has won 11 times in 39 starts and has come 2nd or 3rd in 18 races at the Pomp with a 151.1 mark. Has raced itself into shape since arriving in December and best to respect.
3-Bellacache (5-1)-Has been in the hunt with a fair post draw as is the case tonight. Needs to be forwardly placed and use one move to roll by. This mare cashes a lot of checks and has the speed to win here with the right trip.
6-Come Get The Cash (9/2)-Usually does best work when forwardly placed and has been facing better. MacDonald could blast out to get a close-up seat. If that plan works out, chances for a picture at a square price go up.

Race 8

2-Casie's Believer (5-1)-Comes off a nice effort versus Open mares last week. Should be able to get the top or the 2-hole and could offer a square price.
3-Crisp Mane (3-1)-Ohio shipper is 0-6 at PPk but has hit the board 5 times. Gets a positive driver change with Miller taking the lines and has a post edge on some tough foes.

Race 9

4-Happy Heart (3/2)-Winner of 3 straight steps-up and was Hennessey's choice. This 8-year-old had only 6 starts last year, this will be the 2nd in 2021 and is on a roll. Will use but not a fan of the short price and will lean toward #6.
6-Glennferrie Blade A (5/2)-Miller's choice drops from Open company and recorded 2 wins in previous starts versus $15K claimers. Can get it done on the engine or off cover, looks like a major player.

0.50 Pick 4

1,6,7/1,2,3,6/2,3/4,6
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-12-2021, 05:54 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Delta Downs - Race #2

#2 Inawic	Think that last one wasn't quite as bad as it looks on paper, and she'll try two turns for the first time here. Guessing she can sit closer this time around.
#4 Australasia	Rolled on debut at Fair Grounds, and there's little reason to think the move around two turns is going to be an issue for her. The price is going to be short for a top barn that is 2-for-3 in stakes action here over the last few years.
#3 Taylor Avenue	Tactical type seems like one of the more likely ones to appreciate the added ground, and she turned in a really good run with stakes company at Fair Grounds last out.
Race Summary	Inawic is worth a price swing here. She was too far back in the last run, and she projects for a more advantageous trip while moving around two turns.

Delta Downs - Race #6

#4 Sarah's Passion	She can be a bit dicey late in her races, but she should have a pace edge on this bunch, and if she's left to her own devices on the front end, she may not come back.
#6 Steph'sfullasugar	Showed some life in the comeback run, and she should be in line for a great trip tracking the top choice. Her only local try produced an easy stakes win, and she has upside in this second start off the long break.
#2 Southern Liaison	Finished up well in that stakes run at Fair Grounds, and she has some pace to find a good spot on the move to this mile trip.
Race Summary	Sarah's Passion should be able to find the front here with a couple of logical players likely to sit just off her, and she may be able to stick around better with that most recent race under her belt.

Delta Downs - Race #9

#7 Sweet Sheila	Meets a very suspect group for this first trip to post, and she probably gets overlooked on the board with these. Not impossible, and she won't have to be a star to score out of the box.
#4 Laoban Furen	Steps up off the claim, but that was a really big step forward while dropping in and getting Lasix last time out. Should be there.
#5 Shacks River	Probably the one to beat on the drop out of special weight spots, but she really hasn't come forward a whole lot through her three lifetime starts. Tough call, but I'll stand against at a likely unattractive number.
Race Summary	Sweet Sheila goes first out for a capable barn while landing in a spot that doesn't seem too deep for the level. Dropping Shacks River is the one to beat, but there are alternatives to that filly's modest form.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-12-2021, 05:55 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Northfield Park - Race #1

#6 WATCH AVE	Watch out for this invader in first start for top local connections.
#2 ONCE BITTEN	Missed by a nose and a neck as the favorite in his last pair.
#8 FISHY RIGGINS	Been burning serious money of late, post 8 no help.
Race Summary	Watch Ave chased front-end winners in his last three starts out of town, once through a :55.2 middle half and another against a 1-to-9 favorite. He starts fresh for top trainer-driver tandem, so play 6-2 and 6-8 exactas.

Pompano Park - Race #1

#1 AMERICAN ARROW	Discount latest, moves outside in, can factor at a price.
#3 ROCK STAR MELINDA	Can put speed to good use with Hall of Famer in the bike.
#4 WESTERN STEPP	Got first run on deep closing top pair, seeks 40th victory.
Race Summary	AMERICAN ARROW was no threat from post 8 through decent middle fractions, but he draws the rail for his third start back and should offer good value with Rock Star Melinda being a projected underlay. Play 1-3 and 1-4 exactas.

Miami Valley - Race #1

#4 DCROCKINMOONDANCER	Lands in soft spot for return, showed little in qualifier.
#1 ROCKIN SCOOT	Ranged up on 3-to-5 winner, tired in stretch at 69-1.
#3 TIME A ROLLIN	Been facing better, must use in gimmick wagers.
Race Summary	Dcrockinmoondancer was stuck in 'third' gear in fall sire stakes action, but he could pick up his first win with a similar-type effort off a layoff. Play 4-1 and 4-3 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-12-2021, 05:56 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Mahoning Valley - Race #5

#1 Best of You	Was a fast-closing second the last time she attempted this distance, ran two turns last time, and is back to a sprint; can offer a strong rally vs. these.
#4 Double D's Revenge	Was an easy winner two races back and then held on for third in her latest; good enough to get a major slice of this.
#2 Dancin' Rosie	Has the speed to carve out the fractions and can hang on for a piece of the exotics.
Race Summary	Best of You turns back in distance, gets enough speed-battlers in from her and can come charging for the win.

Mahoning Valley - Race #7

#6 Early Deligh	Was up in time two back and was an even third last time; this one should develop favorably for him.
#4 Amigo's Affair	Set the pace and finished second after a win here; solid player throughout.
#7 Off the Mark	Has excellent speed and could be the one to catch; he's distance challenged, even at 5.5 furlongs, but could last for the exotics.
Race Summary	Early Deligh gets an ideal pace setup and should be able to run them down.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#1 Kist	Was second in her last two and can carve out a good inside trip; one to hold off.
#8 Goonabegood	Has been tested in stakes races and comes off a fourth-place finish; can be near the lead throughout.
#3 Lexy Anna	Was five lengths in front of a similar group and just missed; can't run that far but is ultra quick and could be tough to catch.
Race Summary	Kist can save ground and stalk a fast pace; wins if she runs back to either of her last two.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-12-2021, 07:59 AM

Nick Borrman

Event: Sevilla at Atletico Madrid
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: January 12, 2021 3PM EST
Play: Sevilla +0.5 (-115)
Spain La Liga
Atletico Madrid is leaps and bounds better than the rest of the league, if you simply just look at the standings that is. They are atop the table with a 12-2-1 record and sparkling 29:6 goal differential and currently lead #2 Real Madrid by one point, BUT with three games in hand, very impressive.
However, I think their luck will run out sooner rather than later. They are the #1 Over performing team in the league when looking at their actual goals scored and allowed compared to their xG numbers. They are the #1 over performing offensive team scoring 29 goals on 24.3 xG, scoring over 4.5 more goals than expected while defensively they are the #2 overperformer allowing only 6 goals this season but on 11.30 xGA. That is still the best in the league at just 0.75 xGA per game, but they should have allowed almost 5.5 more goals than they have.
Based on that, they should actually be #5 in the table right now, just one point ahead of Sevilla who are underperforming offensively by three goals so far this season.
The H2H series between these teams is also very tight. The last four meetings have all ended in draws and over the last seven, Atletico has only one win. Also over the last seven, Both Teams have Scored in each game while all seven have reached the current low total of just 2.0 goals with four finishing Over the total along with three pushes, all 1-1 draws.
I see this game playing out very similarly. Sevilla +0.5 is my personal favorite way to attack this game, but Over 2.0 Goals, Both Teams to Score and even a draw all look like good options at very good odds right now. But for my official Free Play, take Sevilla +0.5 over Atletico Madrid.
TAKE SEVILLA +0.5
Line Parameter: 3% at +0.5 up to -140, 2% at +0.25

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-12-2021, 07:59 AM

Tokyo Brandon

Event: (541) Los Angeles Lakers at (542) Houston Rockets
Sport/League: NBA
Date/Time: January 12, 2021 8PM EST
Play: Total Over 222.5 (-125)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-12-2021, 08:00 AM

Steve Merril

Event: (545) Indiana Pacers at (546) Golden State Warriors
Sport/League: NBA
Date/Time: January 12, 2021 10PM EST
Play: Golden State Warriors -2.0 (-110)
-Indiana is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights; off back-to-back losses; in poor form
-Golden State comes in as the fresher team; they are also 4-1 SU over their last 5 games
-Warriors allowing 42.6% shooting from the field at home vs. offenses that shoot 45.9%
Play WARRIORS (-).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-12-2021, 08:00 AM

Bobby Conn

Jan 12 '21, 1:00 PM in 3h
Soccer | Newcastle United vs Sheffield United
Play on: Sheffield United +158 at linepros

1* Free Play on Sheffield United +158

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-12-2021, 08:00 AM

Frank Sawyer

Jan 12 '21, 1:00 PM in 3h
Soccer | Newcastle United vs Sheffield United
Play on: UNDER 2 +101

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR TUESDAY, 1/12:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. In my look ahead to Matchweek 18 in the English Premier League, I have a strong lean to Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United and Sheffield United. Newcastle (W5-D4-L7) is winless in their last five matches across all competitions after their 2-1 loss to Leicester City last Sunday. The Magpies have scored just one time in their last four competitions. They have scored eight goals in their seven EPL matches on the road with expected goals (xG) dropping to 5.96. But they have only surrendered 11 goals in those seven games. Sheffield (W0-D2-L15) has lost three straight games and they have failed to score in all three matches. The Blades had only allowed two combined goals over a three-game stretch before allowing Crystal Palace to score twice in a 2-0 blanking in their last match last Sunday. Sheffield United has scored only four goals at home. Even with the total at 2, take the Under. Best of luck — Frank.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-12-2021, 09:33 AM

Rk	Sports Services	Free Sports Picks
1.	NSA(The Legend)	NBA – Nuggets +1
2.	Gameday Network	NBA – Thunder over 218
3.	VegasSI.com	CBB – Akron -9
4.	Vegas Line Crushers	CBB – Buffalo under 147.5
5.	Sports Action 365	CBB – Michigan -3.5
6.	Point Spread Report	NBA – Rockets +5.5
7.	Lou Panelli	NBA – Cavaliers over 207
8.	Gerry “Big Cat” Andino	CBB – Miami Ohio +9
9.	VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club	CBB – Buffalo -9.5
10.	William E. Stockton	NBA – Nuggets under 231.5
11.	Vincent Pioli	NBA – 76ers over 207
12.	Steve “Scoop” Kendall	CBB – Central Michigan +6
13.	SCORE	CBB – Central Michigan +6
14.	East Coast Line Movers	NBA – Thunder +2.5
15.	Tony Campone	NBA – Warriors -3
16.	Chicago Sports Group	CBB – Davidson -12.5
17.	Hollywood Sportsline	CBB – Akron -9
18.	VIP Action	NBA – Thunder over 218
19.	South Beach Sports	NBA – Nuggets +1
20.	Las Vegas Sports Commission	CBB – Buffalo -9.5
21.	NY Players Club	CBB – Miami Ohio +9
22.	Fred Callahan	NBA – Heat over 207
23.	Las Vegas Private CEO Club	NBA – 76ers -4
24.	Michigan Sports	CBB – Michigan -3.5
25.	National Consensus Report	CBB – Toledo under 142

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-12-2021, 09:36 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs

Delta Downs - Race 3	Daily Double (Races 3-4) / Exacta / Trifecta (50 cent min,) Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) / Superfecta (10 cent min.)
Maiden Special • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 62 • Purse: $35,000 • Post: 1:49P
FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. (PREFERENCE TO HORSES THAT HAVE NOT STARTED FOR LESS THAN $20,000 IN THEIR LAST THREE STARTS).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Stalker. MAGGIE'S RETURN is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FASTHAPPY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. TRACK SMART: Today is a sprint, hors e is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. MAGGIE'S RETURN: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days . HONG KONG STRONG: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position.
10	FASTHAPPY	2/1	4/1
3	TRACK SMART	7/2	9/2
6	MAGGIE'S RETURN	5/1	8/1
4	HONG KONG STRONG	10/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	HONG KONG STRONG	4	10/1	Front-runner	0	0	67.3	40.8	33.3
3	TRACK SMART	3	7/2	Front-runner	58	58	61.0	51.4	47.9
6	MAGGIE'S RETURN	6	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	60	53	32.2	50.5	40.5
5	MIDNIGHT TRIP	5	6/1	Trailer	0	0	41.7	49.3	41.3
10	FASTHAPPY	10	2/1	Trailer	66	58	35.6	51.4	47.9
8	BUILDING HOME	8	10/1	Trailer	0	0	22.8	45.5	35.5
1	ISOLATION	1	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	1.9	31.3	19.3
7	THEBOYZTAP	7	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	42.7	32.2
9	SWEET PINOT	9	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: ALHAMBRA PALACE (15/1) [Jockey: Birzer Alex - Trainer: Tracy Greg], KATIE'S CRUISE (12/1) [Jockey: Pompell Thomas L - Trainer: Gelner Scott].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-12-2021, 09:45 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mahoning Valley Race Course

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 8	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Daily Double
Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 61 • Purse: $29,000 • Post: 4:02P
FOR REGISTERED OHIO BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * KIST: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. LEXY ANNA: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. ROCK STAR LADY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. HELLS BELLS HELEN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. DEB'S ALL OUT: H orse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
1	KIST	5/1	5/1
3	LEXY ANNA	6/1	6/1
11	ROCK STAR LADY	20/1	8/1
7	HELLS BELLS HELEN	12/1	8/1
6	DEB'S ALL OUT	10/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
9	WINE ME UP BABY	9	9/2	Front-runner	65	58	90.6	47.2	35.7
7	HELLS BELLS HELEN	7	12/1	Front-runner	57	55	85.2	53.8	44.8
8	GONNABEGOOD	8	4/1	Front-runner	53	43	82.6	46.8	35.8
3	LEXY ANNA	3	6/1	Front-runner	66	53	70.6	51.0	46.0
10	TRUE LIGHT	10	10/1	Front-runner	55	64	69.4	41.2	30.7
6	DEB'S ALL OUT	6	10/1	Trailer	55	60	23.4	52.6	35.1
11	ROCK STAR LADY	11	20/1	Alternator/Trailer	56	57	60.0	49.2	39.2
1	KIST	1	5/1	Alternator/Trailer	60	60	42.8	50.6	43.1
4	CACKI	4	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	55	58	62.6	42.6	31.1
2	CEE CEE'S GOT THIS	2	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	42	36	46.6	38.8	18.8
12	AIKEN APPLE	12	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	49	42	40.8	36.6	17.1
5	ENDURING LOVE	5	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	56	39	24.2	33.2	13.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-12-2021, 09:46 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Turf Paradise - Race #7 - Post: 3:26pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,500 Class Rating: 51

Rating:

#1 RUN LIKE KATE (ML=5/1)
#3 LEMON ICE (ML=5/2)

RUN LIKE KATE - Just look at her most recent figure, 45. That one fits well in this field. This filly is in nice physical condition. Ran second on December 16th. She'll be laying in the catbird's seat, right behind the early speed. Three consecutive improved Equibase speed figs (27-38-45) make this horse a dominant contender. Another way to judge class is (EPS) earnings per start. This mount has the topmost in the bunch. I think she'll be close at the finish. LEMON ICE - Faced tougher in the last race at Santa Anita. Based on Equibase class ratings, this is a weaker bunch, so I will put this thoroughbred on my list of strong contenders.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 MEMPHIS DOLL (ML=3/1), #5 MISS LUBBOCK (ML=4/1), #2 ABBY SWAN (ML=5/1),

MEMPHIS DOLL - Doesn't seem inspiring to me after the lack of any kind of closing ability on December 9th. Hasn't hit the board in any sprint affairs lately. Not likely to see her doing it in today's event either. MISS LUBBOCK - 4/1 is just not enough of a reward to take on most any mount that has run poorly in back to back races. I find it hard to wager on any horse in a short distance race at 4/1 when she hasn't shown any competitive efforts in sprints in the last couple months. ABBY SWAN - No picnic to bet on any thoroughbred in a sprint event at 5/1 when she hasn't shown any on the board results in sprints in the last couple months.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #1 RUN LIKE KATE on the nose if you can get odds of 3/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-12-2021, 03:32 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $34000 Class Rating: 63

FOR REGISTERED PA-BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 121 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 A BIT BAD N BOUJEE 9/2
# 2 EVERYMOTHERSPRAYER 5/2
# 7 AMATERASU 3/1

A BIT BAD N BOUJEE looks quite good to best this field. Is worth careful consideration and may be a bet - strong Equibase speed figs (55 average) at today's distance and surface recently. Her 55 average has this filly with among the top Equibase Speed Figures for this event. Has decent front-end speed and should fare admirably against this field. EVERYMOTHERSPRAYER - Change in Lasix (with second time Lasix) may be the secret to a return to the races. Looks quite good versus this group and will most likely be one of the leaders. AMATERASU - She has earned solid figures under today's conditions and will almost certainly fare well against this field. Make a note that this one runs on Lasix today.