Service Plays Saturday 1/16/21

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 358391

    #16
    Indian Cowboy football


    7-Unit Play. #303. Take Baltimore Ravens +3 over Buffalo Bills (Saturday @ 8:15pm est)


    Baltimore has given up 14, 13, 3 and 13 the last 4 games to their credit. And, to be honest, I trust the Baltimore coaching staff more than the Buffalo coaching staff as they have been here tim and time before. They are mature enough to handle this spot. Baltimore beat this team by 7 points last year and the question here is are the banged up Bills with skill position players such as Beasley and Diggs banged up a bit. The Baltimore defense is fantastic, their scheme is fantastic and I think Allen will face a scheme he has not facd yet thus far. Remember, the Bills did beat the Colts, but the Colts out gained them in yardage. Also, Jackson can keep a defense very unbalanced as the only rusher who is a QB to top 1000+ Yards in back to back seasons. At the end of the day, this Ravens team stopped Derrick Henry and given that the Bills won't have Moss in this game likely and just Singletary, they can focus a bit more on the Bills passing attack and this works out well for the Ravens who likely pick up the Outright win here.


    3-Unit Play. #301. Take Los Angeles Rams +6.5 over Green Bay Packers (Saturday @ 4:35pm est)


    The Rams can win this game. I think the Packers are very susceptible here. They have not beat an above .500 team in ages. Remember, they lost to the Colts in overtime and this team also lost to the Vikings as well. The Packers struggle consistently against strong defensive fronts such as these Rams. Pluse, these two coaches know each other extremely well and that bodes for a close game. McVay and Lefleur are basically best friends. This Rams team beat Russel Wilson on the road and regardless if it is Goff or Wolford, they will be ready, this defense will carry the day and they will give them a huge headache throughout. This Rams team beat Arizona twice and they held Wilson to 11/27 in passing for 170 yards. Look for the Rams to roll here.


    3-Unit Play. #301. Take Under 46 LA Rams vs. Green Bay Packers (Saturday @ 4:35pm est)


    Per this analysis, the Rams will hold Rodgers in check and will have to play ball control as that is the only way they can keep the Packers offense off the field. Look for this game to consequently go under. Rams are not an active/dog over team as when they are an active dog, games have a tendency to go under.
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    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 358391

      #17
      Big Al
      Green Bay
      Green Bay/rams Over the total
      Buffalo/Baltimore Over the total
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      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 358391

        #18
        Nba-Martingale

        San Antonio Spurs - Houston Rockets

        Houston Rockets @ 3.00 / 1 units
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        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 358391

          #19
          Prez

          5%- bills-2.5 -120
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          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 358391

            #20
            Tony Finn:

            4- Green Bay-7 -105
            4- bills ML -125
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            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 358391

              #21
              Adam Silverstein
              FLORIDA FAVORITE
              YESTERDAY 10:28 PM

              L.A. RAMS @ GREEN BAY | 01/16 | 4:35 PM EST
              GREEN BAY -6.5
              The Packers are my highest-rated team in the league entering the NFL Playoffs, and they are under a touchdown at home against a team with a middling offense. There's a reason Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers are so successful at Lambeau Field in January, and it's the familiarity with the elements (along with the fact that Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks of all-time). The Rams defense is great and deserves a lot of respect, but it's one thing to shut down the struggling Seahawks and quite another to stop Rodgers and the Packers. Green Bay's balance will get the cover, and Jared Goff is a tough matchup anyway let alone with an injured thumb in cold weather.

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              Mike Tierney
              TOP DOG
              YESTERDAY 7:17 PM

              L.A. RAMS @ GREEN BAY | 01/16 | 4:35 PM EST
              GREEN BAY -6.5
              Keeping the spread under a touchdown supports the belief that the Rams’ stellar defense assures a close contest. Yet, L.A. must generate points to cover, and how can the Rams cause the scoreboard to blink with a slumping QB inhibited by an injured thumb? Besides, Jared Goff has bombed in cold weather, though the sample size of two games is minimal. The Packers yielded an average of 18,6 ppg over the final six weeks, which augurs poorly for an opponent laboring to score. Rest is a blessing in the playoffs, so that’s another checked box for the bye-welcoming Packers.

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              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 358391

                #22
                Clay Travis- 62-42- 60%-
                under 45.5 rams/packers
                bills 2.5
                over 49 bills/ravens
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                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 358391

                  #23
                  NY Daily News
                  R. York (5-1-1) NO -3
                  K. Wagner (12-6) Buf -2.5
                  T. Biersdorfer (10-5-3) GB -7
                  P. Leonard (11-7) Cle +10
                  W. Pakutka (11-7) NO -3
                  A. Clayton (10-7-1) NO -3
                  D. Young (10-7) GB -7
                  H. Gola (9-8-1) NO -3
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                  • Can'tPickAWinner
                    Super Moderator
                    • Nov 2012
                    • 358391

                    #24
                    Larry Hartstein

                    FEATURED PICK

                    BALTIMORE @ BUFFALO | 01/16 | 8:15 PM EST
                    BALTIMORE +2.5
                    ANALYSIS: This is the best game of the weekend. The Ravens have covered seven straight and should find success against a Bills defense that just gave up 472 yards and 27 first downs to the Colts. Most teams cannot contain the Bills' trio of wide receivers, but Baltimore matches up well with Marlon Humphrey, Jimmy Smith and Marcus Peters. Look for a close game that ultimately results in John Harbaugh's Ravens covering their sixth straight as road playoff underdogs.

                    +890 19-9-2 IN LAST 30 NFL ATS PICKS
                    +90 2-1 IN LAST 3 BAL ATS PICKS
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                    • Can'tPickAWinner
                      Super Moderator
                      • Nov 2012
                      • 358391

                      #25
                      Norm Hitzges' Picks of the Pole

                      Packers-Rams under 45.5
                      Ravens +120
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                      • Bankroll19
                        Senior Member
                        • Sep 2019
                        • 131

                        #26
                        Any www.Pickersmx.com ??

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                        • Can'tPickAWinner
                          Super Moderator
                          • Nov 2012
                          • 358391

                          #27
                          Lee Sterling

                          30 GB
                          25 Buff
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                          • Can'tPickAWinner
                            Super Moderator
                            • Nov 2012
                            • 358391

                            #28
                            Mike Tierney

                            LOYOLA-MD. @ LAFAYETTE | 01/16 | 4:00 PM EST
                            LAFAYETTE -6
                            ANALYSIS: With only four games staged, Lafayette got a late start on its season. But that is four more games than played by Loyola, which matches American for the most delayed opener. Lafayette is a basket away from an unbeaten straight-up record and is perfect ATS. Its KenPom ranking exceeds Loyola’s by 58 spots. The Greyhounds dropped their last three games outright a year ago and wound up with a losing S-U record. They must fill the void left by their best player, the graduated Andrew Kostecka.

                            7:22 AM

                            JAMES MADISON @ TOWSON | 01/16 | 2:00 PM EST
                            JAMES MADISON +3.5
                            ANALYSIS: This line almost looks backward. The case could be made that James Madison deserves favorite’s status, based on its 4-2 ATS record, including 2-0 on the road, and nine games played overall. Towson has dealt with two pauses because of the virus and has yet to cover in five outings. The Tigers have been idled since Dec. 26. One of their premier players, F Juwan Gray (12 ppg, 9 rpg) is done for the season with a torn Achilles.

                            +94 2-1 IN LAST 3 JMAD ATS PICKS
                            7:20 AM

                            AMERICAN @ NAVY | 01/16 | 12:00 PM EST
                            NAVY -7.5
                            ANALYSIS: The visiting Eagles are one of two Division 1 teams yet to play. They must replace Patriot League MVP Sa’eed Nelson, plus half of their scoring from a year ago. With nine newcomers, American needs time to jell. Ranked 91 places ahead of the Eagles by the analytics site KenPom, Navy has rolled to a 7-1 ATS record, including 3-0 at home. The Midshipmen have not stumbled straight-up since Thanksgiving weekend.

                            7:19 AM
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                            • Can'tPickAWinner
                              Super Moderator
                              • Nov 2012
                              • 358391

                              #29
                              Stephen Oh

                              WOFFORD @ CHATTANOOGA | 01/16 | 2:00 PM EST
                              CHATTANOOGA +1.5
                              ANALYSIS: My model says Chattanooga covers about two-thirds of the time and wins 75-72, so you're getting strong value with the Mocs at this number. Chattanooga has played a series of close games; its last eight games all have been decided by five points or fewer. Last season the Mocs beat the Terriers twice in three meetings, and several key contributors are back for Chattanooga this season. The Mocs also are 6-1 at home this year. Chattanooga covers.

                              +90 2-1 IN LAST 3 CBB PICKS
                              YESTERDAY 9:08 PM

                              ARKANSAS @ ALABAMA | 01/16 | 3:30 PM EST
                              ARKANSAS +3
                              ANALYSIS: Alabama enters this game a little banged up. Senior forward Jordan Bruner (meniscus) is out, and Herb Jones (finger), who averages 12.5 points and a team-leading 6.3 rebounds, is a game-time decision. Those could be key losses for a Tide team that may be 5-0 in SEC play but isn't significantly better than Arkansas. My model says that the Razorbacks cover in more than 70 percent of simulations and win 82-76. I'm on Arkansas.

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                              • dawggy
                                Senior Member
                                • Dec 2017
                                • 1770

                                #30
                                TEDDY COVERS



                                • Game: (303) Baltimore Ravens at (304) Buffalo Bills
                                  Date/Time: Jan 16 2021 8:15 PM EST
                                  Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
                                  Play Rating: 3%
                                  Play: Total Over 49.0 (-110)

                                  3% Take Baltimore – Buffalo OVER (#303-304)
                                  The Ravens defense is all about stuffing the run and blitzing opposing quarterbacks. That strategy worked great last week, when they focused on containing Derrick Henry behind the line of scrimmage while giving Ryan Tannehill steady pressure. But a Baltimore team that blitzes more frequently than any other team in the NFL (more than 41% of opposing QB dropbacks) is not likely to find that same success this week. Buffalo isn’t going to try playing a power rushing game this week like the Titans did last week.
                                  Bills QB Josh Allen faced more blitzes than any QB in the league this season, and he’s excelled against them – second in the NFL with a 93.4 QBR against the blitz. And Allen’s ability to create big plays with his feet is a real problem for blitzing teams relying on single coverage downfield. When Allen gets out of the pocket, defenders have their backs turned to him, resulting in a whopping 38 rushing first downs from the QB during the regular season and three more last week. No surprise that this potent Bills offense has hung 26+ in each of their last nine games, with six 30+ point games in the mix during that span I expect them to approach or exceed 30 again here.
                                  The Colts had ten drives in their game against Buffalo’s defense last week. The Colts reached Bills territory on all ten drives. But Indy settled for field goals, punted on multiple occasions, got stopped on downs, and watched Philip Rivers repeatedly misfire in the red zone while Bruce Arians mismanaged the clock and the situation more than once. I don’t expect John Harbaugh to make those same mistakes. Lamar Jackson requires a complete different defensive mindset than Philip Rivers does, and the Ravens power rushing attack plays right into Buffalo’s defensive weakness; a Bills stop unit that finished tied for #28 in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. Baltimore, too, is a real threat to hang 30+ in this ballgame.
                                  Both teams offensive strengths are problematic for the opposing defense. Both teams have ample ‘big play, quick strike TD’ potential, what Over bettors covet. Both teams score touchdowns in the red zone at better than the league average, not settling for field goals, and both defenses allow red zone TD’s at higher than the league average as well.
                                  The betting markets are worried about weather conditions on Saturday Night in Buffalo. I’m not so worried. There is NOT expected to be heavy precipitation or heavy winds at kickoff or in the hours thereafter. Two offenses that consistently use misdirection and both of which are loaded with playmakers can take advantage of any slick field. Both QB’s can create big play TD’s with their feet. I’m expecting a shootout on Saturday Night. Take the OVER.
                                  Line Parameter: 3% at 50 or lower, 2% at 50.5 or higher

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