Service Plays Sunday 1/17/21

[Can'tPickAWinner]

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[citybeat]

Jan 17	Las Vegas Cris	5%	[NFL] (307) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (308) New Orleans Saints Time: 6:40 PM EST	New Orleans Saints -3.0 (-110)
Analysis: Saints -3 (5%) This is an amazing value for Playoffs. This may be against the market but I like my data

[dawggy]

TEDDY COVERS

• Game: (307) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (308) New Orleans Saints
  Date/Time: Jan 17 2021 6:40 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 5%
  Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.0 (-105)
  
  5% Big Ticket: Take Tampa Bay (#307)
  My clients and I cashed a winning bet AGAINST the Bucs last week and we cashed another winning bet ON the Saints. Yet this week, I’m loading up on Tampa plus the points in New Orleans! What gives?
  Let me start with this – we were lucky to win either bet. I was only right about half the handicap (Washington was bet ON, Chicago was bet AGAINST) in both games. Here’s what I wrote about the Bucs last week:
  “Tom Brady’s Kryptonite is a defensive line that can create pressure without blitzing. Washington has a top five pressure rate, which has resulted in a bevy of forced turnovers. Montez Sweat and Chase Young are the most dangerous defensive end duo in the league right now. Brady has been ‘off and on’ for extended stretches this season and I’m not convinced this is a good matchup for him.”
  That handicap was dead wrong. The Bucs offensive line was able to control the line of scrimmage throughout. Yes, Brady took three sacks, but for most of the day, his uniform was clean thanks to that strong OL play. The only reason my clients & I covered the spread was due to red zone failures; only one TD in five tries for Tampa, not a long term problem for this Super Bowl contender. And it’s worth noting how comfortable Brady was, resulting in a bevy of big plays. FIVE different Bucs receivers caught a pass for longer than 20 yards and Gronk didn’t even make a catch. I do NOT expect the Saints defensive front to control the flow here – not with Tampa’s offensive line playing as well as they have all year right now!
  Here’s what I wrote about the Saints – more incorrect analysis: “The Saints have played the last month without three of their top four wide receivers, including gamebreaker Michael Thomas. Their entire running back room was on COVID restriction last week, ruled out at Carolina. I expect just about everybody from both groups to play here, giving this offense an element of explosiveness they’ve lacked down the stretch.”
  Last week’s game against the Bears made it very clear. The Saints late season offensive weaknesses were not solely the result of the injuries to their receiving corps. New Orleans is not getting elite level offensive line play right now. And Drew Brees clearly doesn’t have the arm strength at this stage of the season – and his career – to stretch the defense with downfield shots. Everything is dink & dunk; not an offense with much big play ability at this stage of the campaign, nor an offense with the capacity to erase deficits if they fall behind.
  I’m well aware that the Saints defense gave Tom Brady trouble in both previous meetings this season. On opening day, Brady’s pick six was a real turning point, as was Tampa’s -3 turnover margin. That said, the Saints offense only gained 4.1 yards per play in that game. The rematch was just ‘one of those games’ where everything went wrong for Tampa and right for New Orleans from the opening kick – the worst half of football Tampa played all year.
  The Bucs are a different team now than they were in Week 9 – they’ve gotten steadily better (as expected for a team that made major transitions last offseason without any benefit of preseason contests). The Bucs haven’t lost a game by more than a field goal since. Brady is NOT out of steam by January, like we saw last year and we’re seeing with Drew Brees now. Meanwhile, the Saints haven’t beaten a single team that’s Over .500 since that win over the Bucs, and we’ve seen New Orleans – repeatedly in the Sean Payton era – blow playoff games like this one at home. Prior to last week, their last home win & cover in the playoffs came in 2011 against the Lions. I’m not expecting them to get another one here. Be sure to sprinkle at least a little something on the Bucs moneyline in a game I expect them to win. Big Ticket: Take the Buccaneers.
  Line Parameter: 5% at +3 or higher, 4% at +2.5 or lower

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football Jesus text pick this week NFL is New Orleans Saints

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hank Goldberg
HAMMER
YESTERDAY 10:32 AM

CLEVELAND @ KANSAS CITY | 01/17 | 3:05 PM EST
CLEVELAND +10
I don't like the way Patrick Mahomes has been playing. Over his last three games he has completed just 59.2 percent of his passes, thrown seven touchdowns and four interceptions and has a passer rating of 87.6. That's not him. A bigger problem for the Chiefs is that they may never see the ball. Kansas City's defense gave up 4.5 yards per carry during the season and will struggle to stop Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. After seeing what the Browns did last week without their coach and play caller, I wonder what they can do with him on Sunday. I'm taking the Browns.

+535 23-16-4 IN LAST 43 NFL ATS PICKS
+190 3-1 IN LAST 4 CLE ATS PICKS

Larry Hartstein
SENIOR ANALYST
TUE 1/12

CLEVELAND @ KANSAS CITY | 01/17 | 3:05 PM EST
CLEVELAND +10
Cornerbacks Denzel Ward and Kevin Johnson should be back from the COVID-19 list in time to face Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Cleveland also is getting back guard Joel Bitonio, though Jack Conklin (hamstring) is iffy. The Chiefs haven't beaten anyone by more than six points since their Week 8 stomping of the Jets. K.C. gives up 4.5 yards per carry, so Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should have success. Chiefs win, Browns cover.

+890 19-9-2 IN LAST 30 NFL ATS PICKS
+1285 15-2 IN LAST 17 KC ATS PICKS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Hochman
WEST COAST WISEGUY
TUE 1/12

TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS | 01/17 | 6:40 PM EST
TAMPA BAY +3
The Buccaneers dropped both games against the Saints this season. The first game was relatively close while the second matchup was not. I really believe this helps the Buccaneers maintain a focus for Sunday; they should learn from it. It's very telling that the line is only three points considering how easily the Saints won both games. Tampa Bay had a minus-3 turnover margin in the first game, and Tom Brady threw three interceptions in the second matchup. The Saints held the Bears to a 10.0 percent conversion rate on third down last week, but I don't see that happening on Sunday; Tom Brady should be able to manipulate the Saints' defense. Take Tampa Bay plus the points, risking no juice.


Hank Goldberg
HAMMER
TUE 1/12

TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS | 01/17 | 6:40 PM EST
NEW ORLEANS -3
New Orleans has Tampa Bay's number. The Saints beat the Bucs easily twice during the regular season and held Tampa Bay to just three points in the most recent meeting. Like all quarterbacks, Tom Brady doesn't do well when he's pressured, and the New Orleans defense is good at getting pressure; the Saints ranked eighth in the NFL in sacks (45). On the other side of the ball, quarterback Drew Brees should be able to take advantage of a blitz-heavy Bucs defense. I'm on the Saints.

+535 23-16-4 IN LAST 43 NFL ATS PICKS
+1322 20-6-1 IN LAST 27 NO ATS PICKS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc Sports

5 tampa bay+3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Tierney
TOP DOG
YESTERDAY 3:38 PM

TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS | 01/17 | 6:40 PM EST
NEW ORLEANS -3
Many Tampa Bay backers are leaning on the old saw that it’s difficult to knock off a team three times in a season. Pshaw. History does not support the theory, especially when the combined score of the first two meetings is a lopsided 72-26, as is the case here. The Saints also swept the series in 2019, making Sean Payton 4-0 straight-up against a Buccaneers team coached by Bruce Arians. New Orleans QB Drew Brees’ reduced ability to throw downfield is offset by an array of top-flight receivers and superb RB Alvin Kamara. The Saints' defense is superior and could exploit the absence of Tampa Bay G Alex Cappa (ankle.)

+450 22-16-3 IN LAST 41 NFL ATS PICKS
+390 5-1-3 IN LAST 9 TB ATS PICKS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Merrill

3% New Orleans Over 52

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Joe Gavazzi - NFL

NFL Executive Plays

Sunday, January 17th

5% Kansas City Chiefs (-10) 3:05 PM ET.

4% New Orleans Saints (-3) 6:40 PM ET.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WUnderdog

NFL

TampaBay/NewOrleans 52 Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy football for this week:


3-Unit Play. #306. Take Kansas City Chiefs -10 over Cleveland Browns (Sunday @ 3:05pm est)


Chiefs will be ready for the Browns. They will not let them jump all over them for 40+ points and 28 points right out of the gate. The Steelers are not a good football team late in the season because they were too injured. The Chiefs just saw what the Browns can do and how fast they can start, they will be ready for this team, they are rested, they just lost to the Chargers and Big Ben threw for 500 yards on these Browns at the end of the day - and Mahommes will not have 4 interceptions. Look for the Chiefs to stop the 2 headed monster run for the Browns and to roll here. Baker is a great talent, a good quarterback, but he runs into a buzz saw today.


3-Unit Play. #306. Take Under 57 Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cleveland Browns (Sunday @ 3:05pm est)


Chiefs defense is massively underrated here. Plus, the Browns will take the challenge against Baker and this will surprise folks as to how low scoring this game is going to be. Look for both these teams to run the ball plenty here and consequently look for an Under here.


3-Unit Play. #308. Take New Orleans Saints -3 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday @ 6:40pm est)


The Saints won 38-3 and 34-23. I know the Bucs have revenge and Tom Brady is on the other side. Difference here though is the better coaching staff, by leaps and bounds are the Saints. Tampa Bay beat Washington by 8 points and Washington did not even have a quarterback. Saints dominated a good Panthers team that nearly beat the Chiefs 33-7, they know this is Brees last year, this team is united and playing very well and this defense is fantastic right now. Bucs are not disciplined as well on defense and look for the Saints to roll here.


3-Unit Play. #308. Take Under 52 Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans Saints (Sunday @ 6:40pm est)


Saints defense will play well here and though the Bucs will score early, that will help the Saints calm things down after that early Tampa Bay score, and they will control the clock from there on out. They have Kamara, and Jones is hurt and look for both these defenses to play well as the Bucs gave up 38 points to the Saints last time so they will play relatively well and the Saints defense will lock down here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

King Creole NFL Sunday

3 Over 52 TB at N.O.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Northcoast

3 NO OVER

Opinions:

Cleve
NO

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

3* Chiefs -9.5
2* Memphis +1.5