Service Plays Sunday 1/17/21

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KIEV O'NEIL

added

NJIT+3 – 1.5 star

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CHRIS R. FARLEY

Saints -3 (-115), 2 units

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Vegas Insiders

NFL Playoff LOCK of the Week! ---- BUCS +3 over Saints

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Codycovers

300 unit Tampa +3
200 unit chiefs -9

200 unit Capitals ML
200 unit Panthers ML

200 unit Pacers +7

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ASA, Inc.

10* Cleveland Browns vs Kansas City Chiefs Over 57 (-105)

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over the Total – Cleveland @ Kansas City, Sunday at 3 PM ET - High total here but we still don’t think It’s high enough. Both of these teams have a strong potential to reach the 30’s in this game and we wouldn’t doubt it if both get above that number. KC has had a few weeks off so we know HC Andy Reid will have a number of new wrinkles on offense. He always has his team ready offensively but especially so in the playoffs with time off. The last 2 years in the division round (week off heading into the game) the Chiefs have scored 82 combined points or 41 PPG. They are facing the weakest defense remaining in the playoffs as Cleveland ranks 25th in DVOA defense. Speaking of the weakest defense remaining, KC is right their with Browns ranking 22nd DVOA defense (the 2nd worst defense left in the post season). Both defenses weaknesses match up very poorly with the opposing offense. KC is 31st DVOA rush defense and Cleveland is one of the top running teams in the league ranking 7th DVOA rush offense. On the other side, the Browns are poor at slowing down opposing pass offenses ranking 25th DVOA defense vs the pass and KC’s pass offense is fantastic ranking 2nd DVOA pass offense. Both of these offenses have the potential to put up big numbers in this game. The Chiefs reached 30+ points in 9 of their 15 games (we are excluding the final regular season game when they sat Mahomes and starters) including games vs Saints, Ravens, and the Dolphins, all top 5 scoring defenses. The Browns offensive numbers are lower than they should be on the season as they played 3 games at home in extremely high winds & 1 game without their entire WR corps. If we subtract those games Cleveland averaged 30 PPG and that includes a 6 point performance in the season opener @ Baltimore and a 7 point performance @ Pittsburgh. They hit 30+ points vs some very good defenses as well including Pittsburgh (last week), Baltimore (in 2nd meeting), Indianapolis, and Washington. We know Mahomes will put up big numbers, however Cleveland QB Mayfield has been playing great as well down the stretch throwing for 2000 yards, 14 TD’s and 1 interception since Thanksgiving. We know Cleveland will have to “keep up” on the scoreboard here and they are more than capable of doing so. OVER is the play.

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Larry Ness

10* PERFECT STORM

KC Chiefs

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the KC Chiefs at 3:05 ET. The Browns scored 14 seconds into their game at Pittsburgh last Sunday and led 28-0 at the end of the second quarter! Cleveland was without head coach Kevin Stefanski, who tested positive for COVID-19, and assorted other coaches and players because of protocol related to the pandemic. The Browns had limited practice time NONE of that mattered. The Browns were playing their first playoff game since 2002 and walked away with the team's first playoff victory since beating the Pats on New Year's Day 1995 (1994 season), 48-37. However, as a reward Cleveland (No. 6 seed) will travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the defending champion KC Chiefs, who earned the AFC's No. 1 seed by going 14-2. Baker Mayfield matured this season and threw for 263 yards with three TDs and no interceptions last week in Pittsburgh. He has not thrown an interception in his last FIVE games. Cleveland averaged 148.4 YPG on the ground, the most for the franchise since 1978. Browns RB Kareem Hunt (841 yards) will face the Chiefs for the first time since they released him but the star RB is Nick Chubb, who is the first player since Miami's Mercury Morris in 1972 to rush for at least 1,000 yards (1,067) and score 12 TDs (he had 12) on 190 or fewer attempts. However, when one talks about offensive stars, Patrick Mahomes shines as bright as any. He was second in the NFL with 4,740 yards passing and fourth with 38 TD passes despite sitting out Week 17. Chiefs RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire was fourth among rookies with 1,100 yards from scrimmage despite missing three games to injuries. Tyreek Hill was second among WRs with 17 total TDs this season and unanimous All-Pro TE Travis Kelce had 1,416 yards receiving in 15 games (catches), the most in a season by a TE in NFL history. Neither team had a good ATS record this season (KC was 7-9 and Cleveland 6-10) but I have ZERO interest in bucking Mahomes, who has 13 TDs and ZERO interceptions in four postseason starts at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs scored at least 31 points in each of their three postseason wins a year ago and while Cleveland FINALLY won a postseason game, it came over a Pittsburgh team that after opening 11-0, lost FIVE of its final six games. The lone win came 28-24 over the Colts, a contest in which Pittsburgh trailed 24-7 late in the fourth quarter. KC is NO Pittsburgh. The Chiefs tied a league-high with SEVEN players picked for the Pro Bowl, led the NFL in total offense Kansas City (415.8 YPG) and even the oft-maligned defense ranked fifth in the AFC in allowing 22.6 PPG. The Browns are coming off their first playoff win since the 1994 season and COVID-19 has wreaked havoc with the Browns in recent weeks. More injuries came in the win at Pittsburgh and let's NOT forget Big Ben did throw for 501 yards against the Browns VERY shaky secondary. Think Mahomes noticed anything in that game film? With a win, the Chiefs would be the first AFC team to host three consecutive conference championship games. Book it, as Sunday's win comes "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry

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Adam Silverstein
FLORIDA FAVORITE
2:45 PM

CLEVELAND @ KANSAS CITY | 01/17 | 3:05 PM EST
KANSAS CITY -8
The absence of Clyde Edwards-Helaire is not enough for me to back off the Chiefs now that the line has dropped two points ahead of kickoff. I did think Kansas City was overvalued as a double-digit favorite, but it is going to be able to move the ball just fine. Lots of money has been made over the years trusting Andy Reid off bye weeks, and I like KC to put it all together in crunch time as Cleveland comes down off its high from last week. The Chiefs have been one of the most frustrating teams to bet on ATS this season, but I like Travis Kelcie to have a tremendous outing and be the difference maker in the game.

+493 16-10-1 IN LAST 27 NFL ATS PICKS
+782 20-11-2 IN LAST 33 KC ATS PICKS
+510 14-8 IN LAST 22 CLE ATS PICKS

Matt Severance
SEVERANCE PAYS
2:08 PM

CLEVELAND @ KANSAS CITY | 01/17 | 3:05 PM EST
KANSAS CITY -8
I was on the fence with this spread at -10 but heavy action on the Browns has dropped it to -8. Now I think it's solid value on Kansas City. Yes, the Chiefs are just 1-7 ATS in their past eight games but I think some of that can be chalked up to boredom. Andy Reid is also money coming off a bye in his career, going 14-7-1 ATS in the regular season and 2-0 ATS in the playoffs since Patrick Mahomes took over as starter.

+60 5-4 IN LAST 9 CLE ATS PICKS

[onetrikpony]

Any sterling... he’s been red hot

Sterling 25* Saints

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76ers-Thunder postponed