Service Plays Wednesday 1/20/21

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football

Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball

College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball

NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey

[rocky57]

Thom Cunningham (VegasInsider CBB) - Top Play - Northwestern/Wisconsin Over 136

[rocky57]

David Schwab (VegasInsider CBB) - Top Play - Creighton -9.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kyle Marley

UFC

Neil Magny (-130) vs. Michael Chiesa (+115): Magny by decision

This is a tough one for me and I changed my pick multiple times already. This is a striker vs grappler matchup. Magny being the striker and if he can avoid the grappling, he will win. Chiesa will not accept a striking match though so he will be looking to get this fight to the mat, and he can win with a submission or a decision if he is able to wrestle effectively. My issue is that I don't know that he can wrestle heavily for 5-rounds against a bigger guy in Magny who will never gas out. If this was 3 rounds, I would pick Chiesa. However, with 5-rounds I think Magny can win 3 rounds or maybe even get a late finish.

Mounir Lazzez (-215) vs. Warlley Alves (+185): Lazzez by TKO

I like Lazzez and I put a big play on him at -136 when they opened the line. Now, the line has climbed up closer to where it should be, but I still say Lazzez is the value side. Alves is going to need to look to grapple and he likely needs an early finish. Lazzez should handle Alves on the feet in every round and I think he can stuff takedowns. If Alves can't get the early finish, I think he gasses and probably gets stopped.

Isaac Villanueva (-135) vs. Vinicius Moreira (+115): Villanueva by TKO

This is the lowest-level fight they could have found for this spot on the card and the loser will almost certainly be cut by the UFC. Moreira is probably the worst striker in the UFC, and he has been finished in Round 1 in all three of his UFC fights. He does have a good ground game and, if he can get the fight to the mat, he can submit Villanueva. I am going to lean with the favorite because he has better boxing, and I don't trust Moreira to get even one takedown.

Viviane Araujo (-330) vs. Roxanne Modafferi (+270): Araujo by decision

Araujo is the younger, faster and stronger fighter and she should win every minute that she is not on her back. I think she wins the striking easily and maybe even gets a stoppage. Modafferi should be looking to wrestle and that is where she has a chance. She is not a good wrestler and I think most takedown attempts are going to be stuffed. However, if she can get a takedown, she can keep top control for a round, and possibly even get a submission. The betting line is a bit wide for that worry, but Araujo is the pick.

Tyson Nam (-130) vs. Matt Schnell (+110): Schnell by decision

Schnell is the younger fighter and should be the faster fighter who lands more shots and is more likely to take the fight to the ground. Nam is the more experienced, powerful and durable fighter. This is a close fight, but I would give the slight edge to Schnell and I think he is more likely to win by submission or decision. The KO is the worry, but with 125-pounders I don't worry about the knockout as much. I think there could be come recency bias in the line with Nam coming off back-to-back KO wins and Schnell coming off a KO loss.

Lerone Murphy (-290) vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade (+245): de Andrade by decision

I agree with Murphy being the favorite but the price is too high for me and I don't see any value in it. He is the younger fighter and looks like a solid prospect. I think he probably is the better striker and wrestler, but I don't see him having any huge advantages. Andrade can keep this fight close or maybe get a knockout. If this was a closer betting line, I would have picked Murphy, but the line has me leaning with the underdog.

Tom Breese (-150) vs. Omari Akhmedov (+130): Breese by decision

Breese is the much better athlete and I think it will be clearly in Breese's favor on the feet. He is also the better grappler and maybe he can lock up a submission off his back. He has the cardio edge as well. He struggles with wrestlers and that is what Akhmedov is going to do. I think Breese has more ways to get the win, so he will be the pick, but he probably gets put on his back multiple times and makes this a sweat.

Ricky Simon (-380) vs. Gaetano Pirrello (+310): Simon by decision

Simon should be better everywhere in this fight. Pirrello has a knockout shot but, if he won in any other way, I would be surprised. Simon is the better striker and his pace should clearly win the striking in a decision. He should look to wrestle, and he can dominate this fight on the mat. Simon is a good wrestler, and Pirrello doesn't have good takedown defense. Simon has the pace and cardio to dominate from the opening bell if he doesn't find a finish first.

Su Mudaerji (-440) vs. Zarrukh Adashev (+360): Mudaerji by TKO

These guys are both mainly strikers but Mudaerji is on another level. Adashev is good at blitzing forward and landing finishing combo,s but I don't see that working here. He is the better wrester as well, but you can't rely on him to wrestle or win rounds that way. Maybe Adashev can land something heavy and put Mudaerji away, but I think it is more likely the other way around.

Dalcha Lungiambula (-140) vs. Markus Perez (+120): Lungiambula by TKO

Perez is the more technical striker and the better grappler. Lungiambula is the more powerful striker and the better wrestler. I see the first half of this fight favoring Lungiambula and, if Perez can survive that first half, I think the second half favors him. I am going to pick Lungiambula by KO.

Francisco Figueiredo (-150) vs. Jerome Rivera (+130): Figueiredo by TKO

Figueiredo is the brother of the current flyweight champion, Deiveson, and he is making his UFC debut. I have only been able to find one of his 15 fights, so it's hard to really know what we are getting. Rivera looks like a grappler to me. He can use his striking to outpace guys, but he is really just spamming kicks, and volume is the only way he is going to beat anybody in the UFC on feet. He isn't a good wrestler and it looks like Figueiredo should have the advantage there. If he doesn't let Rivera get on top of him, I think Figueiredo has the edge and he is my pick.

Mike Davis (-180) vs. Mason Jones (+160): Davis by decision

This is one of my favorite fights on the card. Jones is an undefeated prospect, and he looks like he belongs in the UFC. This is a tough debut for him, but this could be a Fight of the Night candidate. Both guys are exciting strikers, and they can both fight at a high pace. I think Davis is the better overall striker, but not by a lot. I might give the ground advantage to Jones. This is a close fight, but I'm taking Davis to emerge with the win.

Umar Nurmagomedov (-550) vs. Sergey Morozov (+425): Nurmagomedov by decision

Umar is the cousin of Khabib and he is undefeated and hyped coming into his UFC debut. He looks like the real deal and not only can he maul guys on the ground, but he has solid striking as well. Morozov looked good enough where I am not looking to bet Nurmagomedov at this price, but he will need to keep this fight standing to have a chance. I will take Nurmagomedov to take this fight to the mat and dominate with a decision win or a submission.

Manon Fiorot (-180) vs. Victoria Leonardo (+160): Fiorot by TKO

Fiorot looks like she is levels ahead of Leonardo on the feet. Her striking looks pretty good and I think she can get a TKO if she is able to keep this fight standing. Leonardo should look to close the distance and keep this fight against the cage or work for takedowns. I don't think that will be enough, so I will take the favorite.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike McClure

UFC Fight Night top picks

Mounir Lazzez
Su Mudaerji
Francisco Figueiredo

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Oh
DATA SCIENTIST
7:08 PM

DETROIT @ ATLANTA | 01/20 | 7:30 PM EST
OVER 221
My model thinks this total is about 10 points too low with more than 67 percent of simulations finishing Over the current number of 221. Detroit is in the bottom third of the NBA in scoring defense, and Trae Young and the Hawks can hang 130 on anyone. When these teams played Dec. 28 also in Atlanta, there were 248 points scored.

+300 3-0 IN LAST 3 NBA PICKS
+1161 16-4 IN LAST 20 ATL O/U PICKS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nba-Martingale

Houston Rockets - Phoenix Suns

Phoenix Suns -6 @ 2.00 / 2 units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CleInsiderSports

2020 NBA Season (25-11 69% +129 units)
Kings +10.5
Spurs +1

2020 CBB Season (55-43 56% +77 units)
Stephen F. Austin -16
Arkansas -6.5


2020 NHL Season (3-3 50% +1 units)
Ducks ML (+120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian Bitler

10* NHL Total Investment

Minnesota Wild vs Anaheim Ducks Under 5.5 (-129)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Hartstein

DALLAS @ INDIANA | 01/20 | 7:00 PM EST
INDIANA -1
ANALYSIS: The Mavericks are severely short-handed, and Tim Hardaway Jr. is playing through a groin injury. Dallas has lost three straight, the last two in blowout fashion. Look for Indiana to bounce back from its loss to the Clippers and improve to 14-6 ATS in its last 20 home matchups with Dallas.

+190 3-1 IN LAST 4 NBA ATS PICKS
+290 25-20-1 IN LAST 46 DAL ATS PICKS
12:42 AM

COLORADO @ WASHINGTON | 01/20 | 9:00 PM EST
COLORADO -12
ANALYSIS: These teams met Dec. 20 in Las Vegas, the Buffaloes winning 92-69. Dallas Walton, a 7-footer, dominated in that game with a career-high 22 points. He has missed the past six games with a leg injury but is expected to return Wednesday. The Huskies have lost eight straight and just gave an all-in effort at UCLA, losing by five. But they've been more likely to get blown out at home, falling by 27 to Arizona and 16 to Stanford. Lay it with red-hot Colorado.

+2224 83-55-2 IN LAST 140 CBB ATS PICKS
+390 5-1 IN LAST 6 COLO ATS PICKS
12:22 AM

CLEMSON @ GEORGIA TECH | 01/20 | 7:00 PM EST
UNDER 129.5
ANALYSIS: Clemson ranks 300th in pace and 13th in defensive efficiency. The Tigers are facing a Georgia Tech team that's been off since Jan. 3 and won't be at full strength. Look for the Under to improve to 5-0 in the Yellow Jackets' last five games versus winning teams.

+1555 84-62-2 IN LAST 148 CBB PICKS
12:14 AM

BROOKLYN @ CLEVELAND | 01/20 | 7:00 PM EST
BROOKLYN -9.5
ANALYSIS: James Harden has averaged 33 points and 13 assists in two games with Brooklyn, wins over the Magic and Bucks. Kevin Durant scored 72 points in that span. Now Kyrie Irving is back as the Nets visit a Cavaliers team that's lost five of seven and has been off since Friday. Look for Brooklyn to cover for the ninth time in its last 12 matchups versus Cleveland.

+190 3-1 IN LAST 4 NBA ATS PICKS
+170 5-3 IN LAST 8 BKN ATS PICKS
12:02 AM

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Matt Severance
SEVERANCE PAYS
YESTERDAY 7:19 PM

SAN ANTONIO @ GOLDEN ST. | 01/20 | 10:00 PM EST
GOLDEN ST. -1.5
The Dubs should be riding a wave of confidence following Monday's 115-113 upset at the Lakers in rallying from down 14 in the fourth. Had this game been 24 hours after that one, I might worry about a letdown but not two nights later and with Golden State back at home. The Warriors moved to 3-0 in games decided by two points or fewer this season. Fatigue certainly shouldn't be a problem as this is only the Dubs' second game in six days. On the flip side, it's San Antonio's fourth in that span. The Spurs are on a crazy cover streak (seven in a row) as a road dog but that's just not sustainable.

+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 NBA ATS PICKS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Tierney
TOP DOG
9:07 AM

CLEMSON @ GEORGIA TECH | 01/20 | 7:00 PM EST
CLEMSON +1
The top-rated defense nationwide entering last weekend, Clemson was schooled by Virginia, allowing the slow-paced Cavs 85 points. The offense didn’t hold up its end, either, scoring 50. The Tigers had not taken the floor in 11 days, however, and a bounce-back effort looms against a rusty foe itself. Georgia Tech last competed Jan. 3, with four postponements to follow, and fear some absent players for the return game. Tech’s KenPom rating is 72nd, double that of the Tigers’.

+177 4-2 IN LAST 6 CBB PICKS
+162 4-2 IN LAST 6 CLEM ATS PICKS

[Yellow]

Essler 3* GOM

Kings Under 232

[golden contender]

Hump day Power Play

Wednesday card has the 100% NBA Eastern Conf. Game of the Month headlining the NBA Card along with an NCAAB Platinum Supreme Total and Early Soccer. Comp play below.

The College hoops comp play is on Creighton at 7:00 eastern. The Blue jays return home off an upset loss at Butler in their last game. Creighton has covered 15 of 21 vs winning teams and 10 of the last 14 at home. After a loss they have bounced back with 4 straight covers. Providence has lost the last 3 and an earlier game at home against Creighton and the Friars have allowed at least 70 points in every road game this season. Look for Creighton to cover. On Hump day we have a huge card up with the NBA Eastern Conf. Game of the Month, a 100% NBA Totals system, an NCAAB Platinum Supreme total and an NHL Power System play. See us on facbook to jump on. For the NCAAB Comp play. Go with Creighton. Rob V- GC Sports

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Hartstein

LOYOLA-CHI. @ VALPARAISO | 01/20 | 7:00 PM EST
LOYOLA-CHI. -11.5
ANALYSIS: The Ramblers have covered six of seven and come off an 88-46 demolition of Northern Iowa. Valparaiso has failed to cover its last five and just got dismantled by DePaul, 77-58. Look for Loyola-Chicago to continue its hot shooting (51.6 percent from the field this season) as the Ramblers get a comfortable double-digit win.

+2224 83-55-2 IN LAST 140 CBB ATS PICKS
11:38 AM

TULSA @ HOUSTON | 01/20 | 8:00 PM EST
TULSA +12
ANALYSIS: The Golden Hurricane are stout defensively and they've covered six of their last seven games. While they got blown out at Wichita State, they won at Memphis, Cincinnati and South Florida. The Cougars are rolling at 11-1 but this is too many points.

+2224 83-55-2 IN LAST 140 CBB ATS PICKS
+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 HOU ATS PICKS
11:27 AM