Tuesday 2/2/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-02-2021, 12:29 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mahoning Valley Race Course

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 1	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Daily Double
Maiden Claiming $5,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 48 • Purse: $8,600 • Post: 12:45
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. GLITTER GIRL is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * GLITTER GIRL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. TRINNI CUTIE PI E: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. AZNAVOUR: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
1	GLITTER GIRL	3/1	7/2
2	TRINNI CUTIE PIE	6/1	5/1
7	AZNAVOUR	9/2	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	GLITTER GIRL	1	3/1	Front-runner	72	51	67.6	28.8	20.3
4	WELL HELLO YOU	4	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	49	36	51.9	36.0	26.0
5	WICKED WAYS	5	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	47	45	47.0	31.4	22.9
2	TRINNI CUTIE PIE	2	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	70	48	41.6	38.4	34.9
7	AZNAVOUR	7	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	58	44	36.0	41.8	38.3
6	TRAVELERS PRAYER	6	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	58	42	56.8	35.8	25.8
3	BETTER VIBES	3	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	59	37	49.0	19.8	7.8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-02-2021, 12:30 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Louisiana Downs

Louisiana Downs - Race 5	Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / .50 Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7)
Maiden • 220 Yards • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 84 • Purse: $5,300 • Post: 2:36P
QUARTER HORSE 220Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * MR PERRY MOON: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. KR APOLLITICAL CHICK: Quarter Horse has a Fast Bre ak Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. PERFECTLY PERRY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer com bination return on investment is at least +20.
3	MR PERRY MOON	4/1	3/1
9	KR APOLLITICAL CHICK	8/5	9/2
2	PERFECTLY PERRY	2/1	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	FEATURE MSWAVECARVER	1	12/1	Slow	0	0	6.1	0.0	0.0
2	PERFECTLY PERRY	2	2/1	Average	76	68	5.2	0.0	0.0
3	MR PERRY MOON	3	4/1	Average	87	73	4.3	0.0	0.0
4	SHEEZAVAILABLE	4	30/1	Slow	0	0	9.8	0.0	0.0
7	JJ ONE SWEET JESS	7	12/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	0	0	7.4	0.0	0.0
8	CATTLEYA MIDNIGHT	8	20/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	0	0	7.6	0.0	0.0
9	KR APOLLITICAL CHICK	9	8/5	Fast	75	68	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: SWEET WAKOTEE GL (10/1) [Jockey: Hernandez Jr Ricardo - Trainer: Ramirez Jr Saul], D GOLDEN FORTUNE (20/1) [Jockey: Garcia Juan Ignacio - Trainer: Barron Jose D].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-02-2021, 02:29 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $8800 Class Rating: 80

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JANUARY 2 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 10 MO GEE 5/1
# 4 GO NOW GO 7/2
# 12 PAROLEE 9/2

My choice for this event is MO GEE. Could provide positive returns based on solid recent Equibase Speed Figs with an average of 78. This gelding obviously likes the distance, going 1 out of 6 in his races lately. Scriver ought to be able to get this gelding to break out early for this race. GO NOW GO - Is a definite contender - given the 84 speed rating from his most recent race. Cappellucci has a solid 15 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. PAROLEE - Could best this field based on the speed figure - 79 - of his last race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-02-2021, 02:31 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Allowance - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $31000 Class Rating: 68

FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR TRIAL OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING SINCE JANUARY 2 ALLOWED 3 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 INFINITE PURGATORY 5/1
# 1 KNIGHT'S HONOR 9/2
# 5 REASON WHY 9/5

INFINITE PURGATORY is the most competitive wager in this race. Has to be given consideration here on the basis of the figs in the speed department alone. Risk takers should probably take a good look at this one as this filly has one of the best win percentages at this distance in this field. Has a very strong shot in here if you like back class. KNIGHT'S HONOR - Her 63 average has this filly with among the most favorable speed figures in this event. Richard has her trained solidly to break sharply out of the gate. REASON WHY - Has to be considered based on the decent speed figure earned in the last outing. I would have to consider this filly on the jockey and conditioner numbers alone.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-02-2021, 02:32 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #6 - Post: 3:04pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $21,200 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#1 UNDER THE EYE (ML=4/1)

UNDER THE EYE - This horse's last race was at Mahoning Valley Race Cour in a race with a class rating of 82. Dropping a significant amount in class rating today puts her in a solid position in this event. My expertise says this is the only presser in the race. I like this filly. Has the highest EPS (earnings per start) in this one.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 MRS. ROBINSON (ML=3/1), #5 STYLISH ASH (ML=7/2), #8 XINGFU (ML=5/1),

MRS. ROBINSON - If you keep betting these kind of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be let down frequently. You should normally bet against low-odds horses that haven't raced or show no activity in the morning over the last two to three weeks. STYLISH ASH - Recorded a run-of-the-mill speed rating last time around the track in a Maiden Special race on Dec 22nd. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that figure. XINGFU - Tough to wager on any animal to turn things around if there is no value to taking the shot.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #1 UNDER THE EYE to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	1 with [4,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-02-2021, 03:48 PM

Myths: Can You Outsmart the Public?

February 1, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Welcome to a new handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Data powers the app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

I can outsmart the public.

Background:

Most horseplayers have a brash nature, whether displayed outward or kept inside, that they have the edge on the betting public. Many of us think our experience, work ethic or keen insights can separate from the herd. We obviously know that to be true on occasion – we’ve all cashed the lucrative tickets to prove it. But does the consensus get it right consistently over the individual? Let’s find out.

Data Points:

I crunched the numbers in the database for every race over the past 5 years, beginning with the start of the 2016 season. I looked at how the public bet every horse in each race – from the favorite down to the 10th wagering choice in a race – and looked at the win percentages for each.

Overall Findings:

1st public choices (favorites) win 36.45% and go off at average odds of 1.48-1. Their ROI is $0.84.

2nd public choices win 20.88% and go off at average odds of 3.09-1. Their ROI is $0.79.

3rd public choices win 13.74% and go off at average odds of 4.83-1. Their ROI is $0.79.

4th public choices win 10.17% and go off at average odds of 7.42-1. Their ROI is $0.76.

5th public choices win 7.84% and go off at average odds of 11.80-1. Their ROI is $0.82.

6th public choices win 4.73% and go off at average odds of 18.91-1. Their ROI is $0.73.

7th public choices win 3.11% and go off at average odds of 28.26-1. Their ROI is $0.67.

8th public choices win 2.48% and go off at average odds of 38.09-1. Their ROI is $0.69.

9th public choices win 1.96% and go off at average odds of 48.60-1. Their ROI is $0.71.

10th public choices win 1.44% and go off at average odds of 60.54-1. Their ROI is $0.68.

Overall Findings Verdict:

The public does a remarkable job identifying winners, top-to-bottom, as each public choice in the ranking wins at a higher percentage than the next-up public choice. Easily the widest disparities between choices comes with the favorite and second public choice, more than 15 points separating them. The top-4 betting choices win about 80% of the races. (This can be important constructing pick 5 tickets as the averages show 1 in 5 races will be won by a horse not among the top-4 public picks.)

The favorite alone wins more than the 4th through 10 choices combined. It’s also notable to see that 5-cents on the dollar ROI edge for favorites, while the 2nd, 3rd and 4th choices return the same ROI among them. If there’s anything that stands out, it’s that fifth choices have the second-best ROI to the favorite. Perhaps there’s a sweet spot there trying to land those 10 to 12-1 shots that have a reasonable win chance at nearly 8% and with healthy returns.

Bottom Line: You must beat the public on occasion, and remains every horseplayer's goal; and you need to get paid when you do, because it's not easy to consistently do. Over the long haul, and if you play greater and greater amounts of races, the public has proven to be as reliable a handicapping tool as you’ll find. Choose your spots judiciously based on your own fair odds evaluations and try to attack when opportunities present themselves.

Additional Details:

You can go into and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, take a look at the tracks you play most often to see if they fall in line with the public’s overall success. Test the public’s overall performance by turf or dirt. How might field size factor into the discussion? Try it out for yourself!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-02-2021, 03:48 PM

Al Cimaglia: Pompano Park Pick 4 Analysis

February 2, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia

The feature at Pompano Park rolls in Race 9, a Fillies and Mares Open II Pace with a $10,000 purse. The 0.50 Pick 4 starts in Race 6. The sequence has a $20,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

5-Sunrise Hanover (5-1)-One move type that gets the post draw to take advantage of a smooth trip. Should offer a square price in a difficult race to read.
6-Don't Chip Me (5/2)-Keeps getting on the engine and falling short in last 2 starts. Makes 3rd start off a sick scratch and might be able to get a pocket trip this time to capture the 1st win in 8 PPk starts.
7-Skyway Venus (9-1)-This mare likes to race off cover and if fractions are lively chances go up. Raced the back half in 55.3 despite finishing 6th last week. Price will be right and best to respect if front runners fade.
8-Gold Star Igotdis (6-1)-Stuck with the 8 hole for 2nd straight race and makes 3rd start for new barn. Raced from the back last week to cash a 4th place check. But did pace the back in half in less than .55. Looking for a more alert start and if the trip works out it could be the 7th win in 16 Pompano starts.

Race 7

6-Evas Sports Czech (9-1)-Has hit the board in last 4 starts versus similar and should offer a price. Left hard from post 7 last week and cashed a 2nd place check in her best recent effort. Taking a swing this mare lands behind the program chalk and gets a cozy trip.
7-Happy Heart (8/5)-Has ascended up the claiming ranks winning 5 of last 7. Hennessey will be blasting out and if dialed on high should land on the point sooner than later. The possible fly in the ointment is a few could be leaving, and the trip might be bumping.

Race 8

1-Gigi From Fiji (9/5)-Doesn't win like she used to, but this is the level for a picture. Hennessey picks his spots to leave with her and at this class she should be forwardly placed. Has won 10 of 37 at the Pomp and will be in the hunt but at a short price.
7-Come Get The Cash (2-1)-Hasn't won at this meet but has faced better and is 0-9 lifetime in south Florida. The advantage over #1 is this mare has enough gate speed that she could get the top or get a sweet pocket ride behind the program chalk.

Race 9

1-Image Of A Dream (4-1)-Moves in from post 10 and drops out of Open company. Plano trainee did win versus Open foes on 1-5 and should be a main player here.
3-Ask Me Ifi Care (7/2)-Has beaten better but has fallen off of late. Likes the Pomp winning 11 of 34 and should relish the company. Versatile and could leave or come off cover at a square price.
5-Rockin Serena (7/2)-The Wrenn barn has been hot winning 6 of 13 in the last 30 days. Serena needs the right trip and does good work racing on the lead or near the top. Has the gate speed to get that kind of trip here.

0.50 Pick 4

5,6,7,8/6,7/1,7/1,3,5
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-02-2021, 03:49 PM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Delta Downs - Race #1
Picks Notes
#5 Waypoint That was a pretty useful first effort considering the barn move away from Asmussen, and perhaps getting the blinkers off today will allow her to relax a bit better and find more late.
#7 Okudah He has been badly beaten in recent starts, but those came with much better company than he's going to see today. Clear chance to wake up with Lasix, but make sure the price is fair before swinging on this poor-form class plunger.
#2 Honorarian He was a really good fit at the level when just finding the winner too tough last time out, and a repeat of that effort probably keeps him in the mix today. Underlay?
Race Summary Waypoint sheds the blinkers, and that may lead to a slightly more relaxed trip after a really promising first effort for the new barn.

Delta Downs - Race #7
Picks Notes
#5 Reason Why Most of the others in here want to flash pace or chase, and this filly has some positional pace and an ability to rate a bit that should work in her favor. Deserving chalk.
#1 Knight's Honor Think this filly has a big chance, but she would have been on top if she hadn't drawn the fence. Her early pace makes her a danger, but she'll have to work hard for it from the inside with other pace signed on.
#7 Infinite Purgatory Modest enough effort when finishing a few lengths behind the top choice last time out, but she gets a good race shape here and may be able to pass some for a share late.
Race Summary Reason Why should be able to get a really nice trip tracking a couple of honest pace players, and though the price probably won't be too appealing, she looks tough to get past on form and race flow.

Delta Downs - Race #8
Picks Notes
#10 Top Draw Price player has been in with much deeper company than he's going to find in this spot, and he owns some back form that might prove competitive with these.
#4 Lighthawk Steps up off the romping win last time out, but he's not always a sure thing to back up big efforts, and he'll need to hold his form outside of the Diodoro barn.
#5 Paddock Pick Hit or miss form is a concern, but he has done good work locally while winning half of his six starts here, but he'll need to avoid taking a step back off the big run last time out.
Race Summary Top Draw can be a player here at a price. He's dropping out of many better spots than this, and he showed a little life last out when getting into a more reasonable spot.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-02-2021, 03:49 PM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Dover Downs - Race #3
Picks Notes
#1 DOUBLE SKIP Overdue to upstage a series of seconds and break maiden.
#7 JOLLITY Up for second in fast heat when last seen six months ago, one to beat.
#6 SIRI SAID Ohio invader makes seasonal debut, can factor on best, gets Callahan.
Race Summary Double Skip rallied 4-wide on the final turn and finished a clear second to a runaway 5-2 winner. He draws the rail against many of the same rivals, so play a 1-6 and 1-7 exacta.

Dover Downs - Race #11
Picks Notes
#5 NORTHERN EXPRESS Drew away from second fave in lane, can handle rise.
#4 QUIKSILVR BLUECHIP Chased odds-on winner through :56.1 back half and held second.
#2 SPEE CLUB Piles up the checks, draws favorably, adds value to gimmick wagers.
Race Summary Northern Express, bet down late to 2-1, pulled from the pocket near the far turn and pulled away from his closest pursuer, the 5-2 second choice. He retains betting value and is worth a playback in a deeper field.

Northfield Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#3 HAIL TO THE KING Faded late after long duel with winner, holds tactical edge.
#5 SIGN HERE N HERE Invader gets class relief, draws better post, gets Wrenn.
#2 COWBOY COUNTRY Took money from second tier, fired blank, starts fresh.
Race Summary Hail To The King moved early from third to take the lead, was hounded by the 2-1 winner through the final half and held third. He can control an easier pace in this field.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-02-2021, 03:49 PM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Mahoning Valley - Race #4
Picks Notes
#7 Small Town Hero One of the few in here that can adjust to different situations and will probably be in a good stalking position just off exceptionally fast sprinters.
#5 Going With Style Came from just off the pace and was up in time here; has the class to be in this one late.
#6 Savage Nation Very swift and can take a toll of any with designs of getting the lead; held on well last time.
Race Summary Small Town Hero has enough speed to stay in range and has enough late energy to get past the leaders nearing the end of it.

Mahoning Valley - Race #6
Picks Notes
#4 Stylish Ash Was up in time for a maiden win last out and was second here two races back; likes the strip and can finish with good energy.
#2 Mrs. Robinson Battled from the start and finished second last out; hasn't since early last year and is long overdue.
#8 Xingfu Has been in with good runners and makes her first start since Otober; goes to the Gorostieta barn from the Asmussen stable.
Race Summary Stylish Ash was sharp last out and lands in a fairly easy allowance spot; legit threat to make it two straight.

Mahoning Valley - Race #7
Picks Notes
#5 Doyle the Warrior Has done well in two of her last four over this strip and has a good chance to score at a nice price.
#6 Jilly From Jersey Ran second in a photo last time and was on the board in her last three, all on this track; additional improvement could get her to the winner's circle.
#4 Jagger Baby Ended 2020 with a good second vs. similar and has some decent works for her return.
Race Summary Doyle the Warrior lost a photo at this level in November and can mix it up throughout this one.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-02-2021, 03:56 PM

NCAAB

Tuesday, February 2

Wake Forest @ Notre Dame
Wake Forest (5-7, 2-7)
— ranked #110 by KenPom
— Tempo: #180
— Experience: #189
— Continuity: #277
— Wake is 0-5 SU on ACC road, but 4-1 ATS as a road dog.
— Deacons won two of last three games, after an 0-6 skid.
— Wake is turning ball over 21.6% of time (#286)

Notre Dame (6-9, 3-6)
— ranked #69 by KenPom
— Tempo: #253
— Experience: #53
— Continuity: #124
— Notre Dame won three of its last four games.
— Notre Dame lost three of its four ACC home games.
— You’re reading ***************.com
— Last six Notre Dame games were all decided by 10+ points.

— Notre Dame won six of last eight series games.
— Deacons lost four of last five visits to South Bend.

Butler @ Marquette
Butler (5-9, 4-7)
— ranked #94 by KenPom
— Tempo: #326
— Experience: #224
— Continuity: #246
— Butler lost its last two games, scoring 51-55 points.
— Bulldogs have #264 eFG% in country.
— Butler is 1-5 SU on Big East road, 2-4 ATS as a road dog.

Marquette (8-9, 4-7)
— ranked #73 by KenPom
— Tempo: #266
— Experience: #194
— Continuity: #175
— Marquette lost last three games, by 7-9-2 points.
— Golden Eagles are 1-5 at home in Big East (beat Providence)
— Opponents are shooting 43.2% inside arc (#10)

— Marquette won three of last four series games.
— Butler lost last two visits to Milwaukee, 79-69/76-57

Georgia @ Auburn
Georgia (10-6, 3-6)
— ranked #91 by KenPom
— Tempo: #24
— Experience: #125
— Continuity: #258
— Georgia is 1-3 SU on SEC road (2-2 ATS as road dog)
— Dawgs are turning ball over 22.4% of time (#311)
— Georgia grabs 36% of their own missed shots (#11).

Auburn (10-7, 4-5)
— ranked #55 by KenPom
— Tempo: #39
— Experience: #346
— Continuity: #314
— Auburn won four of its last six games.
— Tigers are shooting 53.8% inside arc in SEC play (#1 of 14)
— 46% of Auburn’s shots are 3’s (#24)

— Auburn won 95-77 at Georgia January 13.
— Tigers won six of last seven series games.
— Dawgs lost last three visits to Auburn, by 14-15-22 points.

Michigan State @ Iowa
Michigan State (8-6, 2-6)
— ranked #62 by KenPom
— Tempo: #121
— Experience: #197
— Continuity: #84
— MSU lost its last three games, scoring 51 ppg.
— Spartans are 1-4 on Big 14 road, with four losses by 14+ points.
— Michigan State lost six of its nine top 100 games.

Iowa (12-4, 6-3)
— ranked #5 by KenPom
— Tempo: #79
— Experience: #204
— Continuity: #45
— Iowa lost last two games, giving up 81-80 points
— Hawkeyes have #17 eFG% in country (#23 on arc, #38 inside arc)
— Only 3 of Iowa’s 16 games were decided by fewer than 11 points.

— Michigan State won last five series games.
— Spartans won four of last five visits to Iowa City.

Penn State @ Wisconsin
Penn State (6-7, 3-6)
— ranked #35 by KenPom
— Tempo: #112
— Experience: #46
— Continuity: #53
— Penn State won 3 of last 4 games, after an 0-6 skid.
— Lions are 0-5 SU on Big 14 road, 3-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— Opponents are shooting 56.8% inside arc (#330)

Wisconsin (13-5, 7-4)
— ranked #295 by KenPom
— Tempo: #109
— Experience: #160
— Continuity: #246
— Badgers split last six games, after a 10-2 start.
— Wisconsin is 2-4 ATS as a Big 14 home favorite.
— Badgers have #42 eFG% defense in country.

— Badgers lost 81-71 at Penn State Saturday.
— Wisconsin won last 14 series games.
— Nittany Lions lost their last 12 visits to Madison.

North Carolina @ Clemson
North Carolina (7-5, 5-3)
— ranked #37 by KenPom
— Tempo: #83
— Experience: #323
— Continuity: #150
— Carolina won three in row, six of last seven games.
— UNC is rebounding 40.9% of its missed shots (#2)
— In their last three games, Tar Heels scored 80.3 ppg.

Clemson (10-5, 4-5)
— ranked #61 by KenPom
— Tempo: #315
— Experience: #174
— Continuity: #97
— Clemson lost four of its last five games, scoring 56.6 ppg.
— Tigers are 3-1 in ACC home games, losing by 35 to Virginia.
— Clemson is shooting 29.1% on arc in ACC games (#15 of 15)

— UNC won 11 of last 13 series games, but lost 2 of last 3.
— Tar Heels won five of last six visits to Clemson.

Baylor @ Texas
Baylor (16-0, 8-0)
— ranked #2 by KenPom
— Tempo: #151
— Experience: #104
— Continuity: #42
— Baylor is 3-2 ATS as a Big X road favorite.
— Bears are shooting 43.4% on the arc (#1)
— Baylor is forcing turnovers 26.0% of time (#5)

Texas (11-3, 5-2)
— ranked #11 by KenPom
— Tempo: #132
— Experience: #133
— Continuity: #3
— Texas lost two of its last three games (losses by 1-2).
— Longhorns lost two of their last three home games.
— Texas has #8 eFG% defense in country.

— Baylor won three in row, nine of last ten series games.
— Bears won four of last five visits to Austin.

Tennessee @ Ole Miss
Tennessee (12-3, 5-3)
— ranked #15 by KenPom
— Tempo: #306
— Experience: #231
— Continuity: #91
— Vols allowed 57.3 ppg in last four wins, 73 ppg in their losses.
— Tennessee is 2-1 on road this year, losing 75-49 at Florida.
— Vols are forcing turnovers 23.8% of time (#12).

Ole Miss (8-8, 3-6)
— ranked #66 by KenPom
— Tempo: #305
— Experience: #92
— Continuity: #192
— Rebels lost five of their last seven games.
— Ole Miss allowed 52.3 ppg in its SEC wins, 75.3 ppg in losses.
— Rebels split their four SEC home games, losing by 4-4 points.

— Tennessee won last five series games.
— Vols won last two visits to Oxford, 73-65/73-71.

Mississippi State @ Arkansas
Mississippi State (10-8, 4-5)
— ranked #67 by KenPom
— Tempo: #302
— Experience: #302
— Continuity: #252
— Bulldogs lost three of their last four games.
— Miss State is grabbing 37.7% of their own missed shots (#6).
— Bulldogs are shooting 48.7% inside arc (#219)

Arkansas (13-5, 5-4)
— ranked #30 by KenPom
— Tempo: #24
— Experience: #138
— Continuity: #335
— Arkansas won three of last four games, scoring 79.5 ppg.
— Razorbacks won last three home games, by 30-2-15 points.
— 15 of their 18 games were decided by 11+ points.

— Miss State won last five series games.
— Bulldogs won last three visits to Little Rock, by 6-1-10 points.

Illinois @ Indiana
Illinois (11-5, 7-3)
— ranked #7 by KenPom
— Tempo: #92
— Experience: #222
— Continuity: #46
— Illinois won six of its last eight games.
— This is their first road game in 26 days.
— Illinois is shooting 39.9% on the arc (#8)

Indiana (9-7, 4-5)
— ranked #27 by KenPom
— Tempo: #293
— Experience: #285
— Continuity: #81
— Indiana lost three of its last five games.
— Hoosiers lost last two home games, to Purdue/Rutgers.
— This is Indiana’s first game in nine days.

— Hoosiers lost 69-60 at Illinois December 26.
— Teams split last six series games.
— Illini lost their last seven visits to Bloomington.

UNLV @ Nevada
UNLV (6-8, 3-4)
— ranked #139 by KenPom
— Tempo: #207
— Experience: #249
— Continuity: #279
— UNLV is 1-3 in true road games, losing by 3-3-29, winning at Kansas State.
— Rebels won three of their last five D-I games.
— UNLV is getting 42.2% of its points on the arc (#5)

Nevada (11-7, 6-5)
— ranked #107 by KenPom
— Tempo: #106
— Experience: #335
— Continuity: #299
— Nevada is 0-5 in Mountain West games decided by 7 or fewer points.
— Wolf Pack won four of their five MW home games.
— Nevada is getting 22.8% of its points on foul line (#25)

— Nevada won last seven series games.
— Wolf Pack beat UNLV 89-60 here Sunday night.
— Rebels lost five of last six visits to Reno, last three by 16-14-29 points.

BYU @ San Diego
BYU (14-4, 5-2)
— ranked #49 by KenPom
— Tempo: #192
— Experience: #77
— Continuity: #268
— BYU won five of its last six games.
— Cougars are 3-1 SU on WCC road, 1-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Opponents are shooting 44.5% inside arc (#25)

San Diego (2-7, 1-4)
— ranked #188 by KenPom
— Tempo: #131
— Experience: #65
— Continuity: #205
— San Diego lost five of its last six games.
— Toreros are 0-3 in WCC home games, losing by 7-6-28 points.
— San Diego’s two wins are over teams ranked #346/#311

— BYU won five of last six series games.
— Cougars won 88-82 OT/72-71 in last two visits here.

USC @ Stanford
USC (13-3, 7-2)
— ranked #21 by KenPom
— Tempo: #199
— Experience: #184
— Continuity: #327
— Trojans won eight of their last nine games.
— USC has #7 eFG% defense in country.
— USC is 3-1 on Pac-12 road, losing by hoop at Oregon State.

Stanford (10-6, 6-4)
— ranked #45 by KenPom
— Tempo: #88
— Experience: #295
— Continuity: #70
— Stanford lost three of its last five games.
— Cardinal is 4-4 in top 50 games this season.
— This is Stanford’s first game in Maples Pavilion this season.

— USC won three of last four series games.
— Trojans lost their last five visits to Palo Alto.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-02-2021, 03:57 PM

601WAKE FOREST -602 NOTRE DAME
NOTRE DAME is 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) in home games after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers in the last 3 seasons.

603BUTLER -604 MARQUETTE
MARQUETTE is 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite in the last 3 seasons.

605E ILLINOIS -606 SIU EDWARDSVL
E ILLINOIS are 0-12 ATS (-13.2 Units) in road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games in the last 3 seasons.

607BUFFALO -608 BALL ST
BALL ST is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game in the last 3 seasons.

611GEORGIA -612 AUBURN
AUBURN is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after a game where they covered the spread in the current season.

613OHIO U -614 C MICHIGAN
C MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (8.5 Units) versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game in the last 3 seasons.

615MIAMI OHIO -616 KENT ST
MIAMI OHIO is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) after playing a game as a home favorite in the last 3 seasons.

617AKRON -618 TOLEDO
TOLEDO is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive unders in the current season.

619MICHIGAN ST -620 IOWA
MICHIGAN ST is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season in the current season.

623N CAROLINA -624 CLEMSON
N CAROLINA is 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) off a road win against a conference rival in the last 3 seasons.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-02-2021, 03:58 PM

NBA

Tuesday, February 2

Toronto @ Orlando
Raptors (8-12)
— Toronto lost four of its last seven games.
— Raptors are 3-6 SU on road (3-6 ATS)
— Three of last four Toronto games went over the total.

Magic (8-13)
— Orlando lost 11 of its last 13 games (3-10 ATS)
— Magic is 1-4 ATS in last five home games.
— Under is 7-2 in their last nine home games

— Toronto won last nine series games (8-1 ATS)
— Raptors beat Orlando 115-102 in Tampa last nite.
— Under is 7-3 in last ten series games.

LA Clippers @ Brooklyn
Clippers (16-5)
— Clippers won 10 of their last 11 games.
— Clippers are 6-2 ATS in last eight road games.
— Over is 7-4 in their last eleven games.

Nets (13-9)
— Brooklyn won eight of its last 11 games.
— Nets won their last five home games SU.
— 15 of last 16 Brooklyn games went over the total.

— Clippers won seven of last nine series games.
— LA is 2-3 ATS in last five visits to Brooklyn.
— Six of last seven series games went over.

Memphis @ Indiana
Grizzlies (9-6)
— Memphis won its last seven games (6-0-1 ATS).
— Grizzlies are 6-1 ATS on the road.
— Last three Memphis road games went over the total.

Pacers (11-9)
— Indiana is 3-5 in its last eight games.
— Pacers are 1-5 ATS in last six home games.
— Over is 6-2 in their last eight games overall.

— Pacers won five of last six series games.
— Grizzlies covered once in last four visits to Indiana
— Six of last seven series games went over.

Portland @ Washington
Trailblazers (10-9)
— Portland is 3-4 SU in its last seven games.
— Blazers are 6-3 ATS on road this season.
— Over is 5-1 in Portland’s last six games.
— Starting G McCollum/C Nurkic are both out.

Wizards (4-12)
— Wizards lost six of their last eight games.
— Washington is 2-6 SU at home (3-5 ATS)
— Over is 8-3 in Wizards’ last eleven games.

— Portland won/covered last three series games.
— Blazers covered four of last five visits to Washington.
— Six of last nine series games went over.

Detroit @ Utah
Pistons (5-15)
— Detroit lost six of its last eight games.
— Pistons are 1-8 SU/3-5-1 ATS on the road
— Over is 6-3 in Detroit’s last nine games overall.

Jazz (15-5)
— Utah won/covered 10 of its last 11 games.
— Jazz won/covered their last seven home games.
— Over is 4-1-1 in last six Utah games.

— Jazz won last nine series games.
— Pistons are 2-3 ATS in last five visits to Utah.
— Under is 8-2 in last ten series games.

Boston @ Golden State
Celtics (10-8)
— Boston lost five of their last seven games.
— Celtics are 1-3 SU/ATS in their last four road games.
— Last three Boston games stayed under the total.

Warriors (11-9)
— Golden State won/covered three of last four games.
— Warriors are 6-2 ATS in last eight home games.
— Three of Golden State’s last four home games went over.

— Boston won last three series games.
— Celtics covered four of last five visits to the Bay Area.
— Last nine series games stayed under the total.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-02-2021, 03:58 PM

NBA

Tuesday, February 2

Trend Report

Toronto @ Orlando
Toronto
Toronto is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Orlando
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Orlando
Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Orlando's last 9 games at home

LA Clippers @ Brooklyn
LA Clippers
LA Clippers is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Clippers's last 7 games when playing Brooklyn
Brooklyn
Brooklyn is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Brooklyn's last 16 games

Memphis @ Indiana
Memphis
Memphis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Memphis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indiana's last 7 games when playing Memphis
Indiana is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Memphis

Portland @ Washington
Portland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Portland's last 6 games
Portland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Washington's last 13 games when playing Portland

Boston @ Golden State
Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing at home against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing Boston

Detroit @ Utah
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against Utah
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 8 games on the road
Utah
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Utah's last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
Utah is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home