Saturday 2/13/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Meadowlands - Race #1
Picks Notes
#1 ODDS ON LAUDERDALE Better than last pair indicate, today's Best Bet from rail.
#3 SPORTY SPOOK A Wake-up candidate off claim by sharp outfit, lures Dunn.
#9 WINDEMERE FRANK Yet to recapture 2020 form, drop could be the answer.
Race Summary Odds On Lauderdale had momentum when he broke stride in mid-stretch two back, then rallied widest and fastest last week, albeit too late.. He is the one to beat on the class drop.

Meadowlands - Race #10
Picks Notes
#7 RICH AND MISERABLE Change back to off-pace tactics could serve longshot well.
#8 J L CRUZE $1.5 million earner nearly overcame post 10, seeks 43rd victory.
#6 PIKACHU HANOVER Seeks third win in a row since arrival from Canada.
Race Summary Rich And Miserable (12-1) is worth a price stab. He raced closer to a faster pace and broke stride last week, after he rallied for a big speed figure when second at Yonkers.

Cal-Expo - Race #1
Picks Notes
#5 SIN MACHQUEEN Locked in until stretch, strong finish and gallop out, gets ideal set-up.
#8 GIGGLE MONSTER Dead game in winning for fifth time in six starts this year.
#6 P H HIPPIE Moved into fast pace to stretch lead, finished second.
Race Summary Sin Machqueen rode the rail, lacked running room until mid-stretch, finished well for fourth and continued strong on the gallop-out. He gets plenty of pace to run at, so play 5-6 and 5-8 exactas.

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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#8 Don't Get Khozy Has been consistent in her closing move and is a five-time winner over the track; has the classy and late speed to succeed.
#2 Funnybet Ended 2020 with three straight wins and has shown she can get it done from anywhere in the field; her latest was from off the pace but she's also won going wire to wire.
#7 Princess Betty Has the speed to fight it out from the start and she's already shown a lot of gameness in her career; would not be a surprise.
Race Summary Don't Get Khozy will be set up by a fast pace in front of her and can unleash her usual kick through the stretch; she will be extremely difficult to hold her off.

Gulfstream Park - Race #10
Picks Notes
#1 Penalty Had solid performances here last year and likes the distance; can make a solid run to the wire and should be very tough to hold off.
#5 Structor Long layoffs don't seem to be a problem for Chad Brown trainees, and this one hasn't been out since November 2019. The good news for him is that he's perfect in three starts and won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf.
#4 Grand Journey Closed well and finished a good third at Tampa last out and won here last year; moving the right direction on his form lately.
Race Summary Penalty has a good late move and was getting to the leads last out in New York; has trained well and Mott has him ready for his first since July.

Gulfstream Park - Race #11
Picks Notes
#2 Shivaree Was a going-away winner the last time he sprinted and has been competitive vs. top-flight runners over this strip.
#5 Mischevious Alex Was an easy winner of an optional claiming race last out and has some solid wins, including a romping score in the G3 Swale here last year.
#6 Wind of Change Has superior early speed and might be too much for these early on; he'll compromise the chances of any other that has a need for the early lead.
Race Summary Shivaree turns back from a longer distance, has enough speed to stay in range and can make an effective move against the leaders.

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Al McMordie - NCAAB - Sat, Feb 13 at 1:00 PM
Big Al's FREE Kentucky/Arkansas Winner!

Auburn vs Kentucky
Kentucky -2 (-105) (BetOnline)

At 1 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over Arkansas. John Calipari's Wildcats enter this afternoon's game on a 4-game SU/ATS losing streak. And they also lost at Auburn earlier this season, 66-59, as a 3-point road underdog. But I love Kentucky to avenge that defeat this afternoon. For technical support, consider that SEC teams off 3 SU/ATS losses are a solid 84-59 ATS at home, or on a neutral court, when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season. Take Kentucky. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

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Jack Banks - NCAAB - Sat, Feb 13 at 1:00 PM
Oklahoma vs. West Virginia

Oklahoma vs West Virginia
West Virginia -2.5 (-108) (BetAnySports)

The Mountaineers will have revenge on their minds after coming back from a big deficit before losing by 4 points to Oklahoma earlier this season. West Virginia trailed big, by nearly 20 points coming out of the half and came all the way back to tie the game up well into the second half but couldn't quite complete the deal. They have a distinct advantage at home as a good 3-point shooting team against Oklahoma's poor defensive perimeter play. Oklahoma is just inside college basketball's top 300 against the 3-point shot and WVU should take care of business on the offensive end. I'm backing West Virginia on Saturday.

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Power Sports - NCAAB - Sat, Feb 13 at 4:00 PM
POWER'S FREE ARKANSAS-MISSOURI WINNER

Arkansas vs Missouri
Arkansas +3 (-109) (BetAnySports)

1* Arkansas (4:00 ET): All season long I've been pretty adamant that the pollsters have the SEC pecking order WRONG when it comes to these two particular squads. My own power ratings consider Arkansas, not Missouri (who is ranked #10), to be a Top 25 team. Meanwhile, Mizzou isn't even my top 40! Now that may seem like a silly statement to make when you consider Mizzou beat Arkansas, in Fayatteville, back on January 2nd. But consider that the Razorbacks were 6.5-point favorites for that game (lost 81-68). Based on that number, we're getting a pretty solid value on the Hogs in today's rematch. Then consider what just happened to Missouri earlier this week. They were slight underdogs to an unranked Ole Miss team and got blown out 80-59. I faded the Tigers in that one and recommend doing so again here. This team simply is not as good as its ranking. Arkansas has won five straight SEC games. Take the points. 1* Arkansas

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ASA Free Pick Saturday NBA

Brooklyn Nets vs Golden State Warriors
Brooklyn Nets -4.5 (-110) (BetOnline)

ASA free play on Brooklyn Nets -4 @ Golden State HOME COMING for Durant as he comes back to Bay area and we expect a big night for KD. Golden State at home is 9-5 SU on the season with a +6.1PPG differential 4th best in the NBA, BUT only 3 of those home wins came against a team with a current winning record and the differential is inflated by some blowout wins over bad teams (Det, Minn twice, Sac). BROOKLYN is not great on the road – 4-7 SU 15th in road net differential at 0PPG. But they haven’t played many road games with a full compliment of players. Nets Big 3 – Kyrie and Durant have played in 18 of Nets 27 games this season, Harden 13. The Big 3 haven’t played together since Feb 2nd a win over the Clippers. Combined these three Super Stars have been on the floor together roughly 164 total minutes. The Nets are 4-1 with all 3 starting. Plus/minus with all three on the court is incredible. Golden State was a home dog of +2.5 to the Celtics in early Feb and lost by 4. Brooklyn is better than Boston. NETS one of the worst DEFF teams in the NBA this season overall but coming off their best defensive showing of the season against the Pacers as they held Indy to 94-points on 39% shooting. NETS 3PT ‘D’ – Not as bad as you might think ranking 11th in NBA at 36.4%. Warriors 3PT ‘O’ – 11th at 37.6% Brooklyn 4th best OEFF ratings in the NBA at 1.171PPP – Golden State 20th at 1.105PPP The ALPHA MALE - Kevin Durant has a much better supporting cast than the Steph Curry and the Warriors do and it shows up here. Nets 6-2 ATS last 8 games vs. teams with above .500 record

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Mitchell Newman

No question the Florida State Seminoles are the better of the 2 teams on the court this Saturday afternoon in Tallahassee as their opponent, the Wake Forest Demon Deacons are just 6-8 this season and only 1-6 for the year on the road. The problem for the 'Noles is this will be their first live action after a second pause to their season due to COVID-19 and I am not ready to just jump right in with Leonard Hamilton's team laying -13 or so points.

True, Florida State handled their first pause with perfection as they ripped off 5 straight wins and covers before getting upset at Georgia Tech on January 30th. That was the last game for the 10-3 Seminoles. Handling the "rust" of the first layoff was one thing, doing it a second time may see them not as sharp in running away from teams as they were the first time back.

The Demon Deacons have actually won 3 of their last 5 games straight up and they have been even better against the spread, as they come into this one having covered 6 of their last 7 games and 8 of their last 10 overall this year.

Florida State has won 3 of the last 4 series meetings, but are no better than 2-2 against the spread in those 4. How about we split the difference here and look for Florida State to return to live action with the win, but Wake Forest plus the double-digits gets the cover.

Take the points.

1* WAKE FOREST

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Chris Jordan

My free pick for tonight is the USC Trojans, who we just made money with the other night in their win over Washington. I'm going to take a shot with them tonight against Washington State.

The USC Trojans already smacked the Cougars this season once, an 85-78 home win on Jan. 16. It was part of the 11-1 winning run the Trojans will take into tonight.

USC's biggest strength that has fueled its offense has been the work it does on the glass, ranking 12th in the country with 40.8 boards per game - including 12.7 on the offensive end, 28th in the nation. The Trojans' 12.3 offensive boards per game ranks No. 1 in the Pac 12.

By crashing the boards when they miss - the Trojans are hitting .459 from the floor against Pac 12 foes - they're giving themselves second-chance opportunities on offense.

The 85 points the Trojans scored against Washington State was the sixth-highest against all opponents - third-highest of major colleges; the 17 assists were fourth-highest; the 8 turnovers were second-fewest; and the six steals were third most.

USC is riding too much motivation for Wazzu. Lay the road chalk.

4* USC

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Trace Adams

My Saturday comp play will come in the NBA as I side with the Suns to stay on the winning path against the road-weary Sixers.

Philly is playing their 3rd road games in 5 days and they still have a Monday stop in Utah before heading back to the City of Brotherly Love. The 76ers have split their first 2 to start the trek - winning at Sacramento, but losing at Portland on Thursday night. Now they must tangle with one of the hottest teams in the West, heck in the league, in the Phoenix Suns.

The Suns are searing right now, winners of 4 in a row and 7 of their last 8 both straight up and against the spread. The last 4 wins have all come at home and they include wins over Boston and Milwaukee, so a game against Philadelphia should not bother them all that much.

This will be the first meeting since these teams met last August in the Orlando bubble when the Suns whipped up on Philly, 130-117 to make it 2 straight wins and 4 straight up wins over the last 7 overall series meetings between the teams. Better still, Phoenix is 5-2 against the spread in those 7 meetings.

This Suns team showed in the bubble last August that they are on the rise and they will show it again today against one of the contenders in the East.

Take the Suns.

3* PHOENIX

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Bob Valentino

Heading to the ice for my Saturday free play as the goals are once again hard to come by for both Montreal and Toronto.

Montreal has not topped 2 goals in any of their last 4 games, as all 4 of those games have landed Under the total. Included is a 4-2 home loss to the same Toronto Maple Leafs they will be facing tonight in TO.

Toronto comes into this game having landed Under the total in each of their last 3 games - including that Wednesday win over Montreal. The Maple Leafs have allowed only 4 goals total in their last 3 games and I get the feeling that facing the Habs once again just a few days later we will be staring at another defensive, low-scoring affair.

A closer look at Wednesday's meeting shows the game was only 1-1 after two periods were in the books. Sure, it did get a little dicey for Under players as the total that night was 6 1/2 goals, but with Montreal currently mired in an offensive scoring outage, I will take my chances with the Montreal Under streak extending to 5 in a row and Toronto's Under streak running to 4 straight.

This one could be a 2-1 or 3-1 final tonight.

Canadiens-Maple Leafs Under.

2* MONTREAL-TORONTO UNDER

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Gus Augustine

The Toronto Maple Leafs host the Montreal Canadiens in a battle of North Division leaders. Toronto is in first place, while Montreal is tied for second with the Edmonton Oilers. But the Canadiens have been the surprise team in maybe all of hockey, with how well they've performed.

That said, Toronto is making a case as being the overall best team in the league right now with an NHL-high 23 points. The Leafs have won four straight behind a surging offense that is averaging nearly 5 goals per game during the streak, outscoring teams 19-7 in that span.

That run includes a 4-2 win in Montreal on Wednesday. The Leafs turned away a 1-0 deficit after the first period, scored three unanswered goals to take a 3-1 lead and got the empty netter to provide the final margin.

The Canadiens, meanwhile, had a game in between their two games with Toronto, which has been off. Montreal lost 3-0 at home to Edmonton on Thursday.

I don't like this spot here, as Toronto is catching Montreal at the right time, and should skate away with a victory here.

2* MAPLE LEAFS

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Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Indiana -1½ over Atlanta

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Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR SATURDAY: BRADLEY +2½ over Missouri St

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Totals4U

Early Saturday's Free Selection: TCU Horned Frogs/Texas Longhorns under 142

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Roz Wins

ROZ's SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 13, 2021
FREE PLAY
CBK
745. Valparaiso +7 (5 PT / 8 ET)